「華人戴明學院」是戴明哲學的學習共同體 ,致力於淵博型智識系統的研究、推廣和運用。 The purpose of this blog is to advance the ideas and ideals of W. Edwards Deming.

2009年3月31日 星期二

Happines: A Political Economics Approach

Dalai Lama Urges China To Let Media Into Tibet
The Dalai Lama challenged China to open Tibet to foreign journalists to determine whether residents are happy.

合作的萬象

Zero


美國、英國和二十國集團的其他成員國目前都在努力就加強金融監管和提振全球經濟達成一致。美國和英國都呼籲在國家層面上加強金融監管﹐而法國和德國則在遊說更凌駕國家層面之上的監管。

在週二被問到是否會在會議結束前離開時﹐薩科齊說他仍然重視同二十國集團的其它成員國合作﹐以找到解決全球經濟危機的途徑。

薩科齊說﹐這場危機的嚴重程度使我們不能在此次峰會上無所作為。

一人道
據中央社台北三十日消息:首度來台的大陸紅十字組織總會會長、八十歲的彭珮雲,今天與台灣紅十字會會長陳長文簽署海峽兩岸紅十字組織合作備忘錄,未來將更加強人道合作與交流。
彭珮雲應台灣紅十字會邀請首次訪台,上午拜會台灣紅十字會時表示,這次來台灣,是多年的願望,要特別答謝台灣同胞在去年「五.一二」汶川地震後展現的大愛,與台灣紅十字組織的種種援助。
陳長文致歡迎詞表示,這次簽署工作備忘錄,除了肯定兩會二十年來的交流合作經驗,包括「五.一二」汶川地震等大災難發生時,兩岸紅十字組織人員能及時幫助災民,也見證在日益開放的兩岸關係上,加深兩會合作的領域與深度,達成兩岸民眾的人道需求。
彭珮雲說,紅十字組織在加強兩岸民間交流、協助兩岸同胞福祉上發揮了獨特作用,從提供尋人轉信服務,到逐年強化紅十字青少年會員、志工、組織人員的交流,與緊急醫療服務、水上救護培訓、救災備災訓練、預防愛滋病合作等,都是多年來雙方共同努力的結果。
她特別感謝台灣紅十字組織在「五.一二」汶川地震後提供緊急搜救援助、醫療團服務,陳長文會長還親自到災區撫慰災民,希望能進一步加深對台灣的了解和友誼,學習好經驗。
未來一周,彭珮雲一行八人將到全台各地學習台灣「九.二一」地震重建經驗,走訪台灣紅十字組織各分支會,了解紅十字組織在台灣運作的情形。
台派員了解大陸禽流感疫情
另據中評社台北三十日消息:為了解中國大陸禽流感疫情,台灣衛生署今天在陸委會委員會議上提出報告,衛生署表示,已派員赴大陸了解當地疫情及其因應作為。
衛生署今天在陸委會委員會議上提出「中國大陸H5N1禽流感疫情評估及因應」報告,衛生署指出,目前大陸疫情仍屬禽傳人,且其爆發禽流感疫情之風險仍大,而一旦爆發,將對台灣造成直接的影響。
衛生署指出,衛生署已持續掌握世界衛生組織(WHO)、大陸官方及媒體報道之相關資訊;派員赴大陸地區了解當地疫情及其因應作為;加強機場、港口發燒篩檢措施;並提供民眾相關衛教宣導等因應作為。
衛生署表示,今年台灣已正式納入國際衛生條例(IHR)運作體系,相信未來國際合作管道將更為暢通,目前兩岸防疫工作已有良性互動,惟缺乏制度性的安排,故台灣應更致力於建立雙邊或多邊防疫夥伴關係。

二中美辜學武:美中須通過合作走出危機

20國集團金融峰會將於4月20日在倫敦舉行。峰會召開前,德國和英國媒體已刊登出G20峰會公報草案,其中內容包括對抗貿易保護主義、改革國際金融市場和金融機構,確保危機不再重演等。德國波鴻大學東亞問題研究所教授辜學武在接受德國之聲記者採訪時表示,從短期來看,在克服經濟危機的問題上還需要依靠各國自己的力量,G20峰會不會起到太大作用。

德國之聲:全球性金融危機和經濟危機從去年開始迅速蔓延,各個國家都受到波及。即將舉行的20國集團峰會對各國克服各自國內危機來說意味著什麼呢?
辜學武:G20峰會對各國克服各自國內危機不會產生短期效果。因為我們現在還沒有一個世界級的政府,出現這麼大的危機之後沒有一個有能力的世界級的機構幫助各國解決問題。所以從短期效果看,各國要克服自己目前碰到的經濟危機、金融危機,還需要各國政府自己努力。從長期角度看,G20峰會目前要解決的問題是今後如何建立一個新的機制,防止類似的金融危機發生。
德國之聲:那麼是不是可以這樣理解,此次為期一天的倫敦峰會在具體解決金融危機、經濟危機的問題上不會產生實際的效果?
辜學武:G20峰會可能產生的是一種心理效果。前一段時間美國爆發次貸危機以來,主要原因眾說紛紜。但實際上一個重要原因,也是G20峰會需要解決的問題就是,80年代中期以來,國際國內監管機構對銀行系統金融系統放任自流。在這樣一個背景下,今後如何對世界金融體系進行監管,如何解決因金融監管不足造成的危機,這是G20峰會需要解決的問題。
德國之聲:上星期,中國央行行長周小川連續撰文提出"創造超主權儲備貨幣"。您認為,中國在此次G20倫敦峰會上會起到什麼作用?
辜學武:中國可能會成為倫敦峰會上一個亮點。周小川提出取消美元的主導地位,建議設立超主權貨幣的想法之後,把國際上的話語權奪到中國手中。以前世界一直在討論,之所以發生這麼大的經濟危機是因為世界經濟貿易的不平衡。貿易不平衡主要是美國消費太厲害,中國儲蓄太厲害造成的。與中國儲蓄量過大相連的就是中國操縱人民幣,所以造成這麼大範圍的世界性經濟危機。周小川在一周前提出主權貨幣改革論之後很大程度上扭轉了世界輿論。從輿論角度講,因為邏輯上的原因,大家把造成經濟危機和金融危機的原罪基本上推到了美國人的身上。現在很少再有人提中國操縱人民幣的問題了。
德國之聲:有觀點認為,中國經濟如果想重新回到快速發展的道路上,依然要取決於美國能否儘早走出經濟危機。中美兩國在克服全球性經濟危機、金融危機的問題上究竟是怎樣一種關係呢?

辜學武:從短期來講,中美必須通過合作走出危機。從前兩個季度來看,中國外貿下降的速度比拉動內需的速度要快。由於中國出口的20%左右都是出口到美國。從這個份量來講,美國經濟崛起、消費市場重新繁榮對中國還是有很大助力。反過來講,美國要推動自己國內消費市場的發展,政府必鬚髮行更多的債券,加強投資拉動消費。現在有錢購買美國國債的只有中國。但是從長遠角度講,一個由美元主導的世界貨幣體係對中國可能不會太有利。因為美國國家儲備銀行能夠隨時開動印鈔機,操縱美元貨幣流通量的多少。這對中國依靠美元進行外貿發展非常不利。所以,從長遠看,中美在貨幣戰爭問題上會有非常強勁的博弈。
作者:洪沙
責編:葉宣

2009年3月28日 星期六

三頭六臂集 396-409

三頭六臂集


409

La Tour Eiffel エッフェル塔、青く変身 埃菲爾鐵塔

今天才注意到 取名為設計者

Eiffel Tower: was dedicated in Paris; designed by bridge engineer Alexandre Gustave Eiffel, the open-lattice wrought iron masterpiece was the tallest structure in the world at the time (1889)


408
在苗栗讀報

"俞東雷已經認識到依賴於不斷增長的制造業的危害,因此他決定另辟蹊徑。他說,我們的業務完全依賴於投資和擴張。這是讓我們感到恐懼的原因。這不是一種可以持續發展的業務模式。"


".....毫无疑问,许多意大利人认为,总理贝卢斯科尼在对待经济危机的社会后果问题上缺乏严肃的态度。这位亿万富翁总统至今仅提出了一条建议,那就是:谁在危机中 失去了工作,他就必须重新找一份。尽管在民意调查中,贝卢斯科尼仍旧高居首位,但即便是他的一些亲信也认为,像这样的公众讲话实在有些错位。"--八国集团劳工部长会议在罗马举行

".....在4月2日20国集团峰会召开前夕,这位欧盟事务委员专程到访中国,除了谈论应对经济危机的措施以外,她也不忘向中国政府表示,在西藏问题上,中国的领土完整和主权独立并没有受到质疑,但更加需要重视的是西藏的宗教信仰和文化自由。...." ---中国重开西藏旅游 欧盟敦促继续谈判

407
BBC 反 谷歌 Google

穀歌在中國推出免費下載音樂服務
穀歌表示,沒有計劃將這項免費下載音樂服務擴展到中國以外的地方。

谷歌啟動中國網絡音樂服務
網絡巨頭谷歌在中國推出了期待已久的網上音樂服務﹐谷歌與唱片公司合作夥伴希望藉此在盜版肆虐的中國音樂市場實現盈利。

406
聽到友達公司工安事件死兩人 痛

"友達中科三期廠區八代廠昨傳工安意外,兩名外包公司工人清洗彩色濾光片專用顯影劑儲槽時,疑吸入不明氣體昏迷,跌入槽內漂浮,送醫不治;搶救過程中,另有兩名工人及一名永達員工受輕傷無礙。

這件工安意外,令人關注是否與近期的急單趕工效應有關,友達澄清指出,顯影劑儲槽至今未驗收,八代廠原定年底才要投入生產,目前尚未啟用,意外與急單無關。

死亡的兩名工人藍依權(廿八歲)、阮世麒(廿六歲),死因尚未確定;台中榮總急診室主任王立敏說,為兩人插管急救時,自食道流出很多水,與溺水死亡情形很像。

榮總毒物科醫師毛彥喬說,根據廠方提供的資料,槽內有碳酸重鈉、碳酸氫鈉及活性劑,若大量吸入會中毒;但不排除幾種化學物交互作用產生毒物,造成意識昏迷,確切死因待檢方剖驗。

友達中科廠外包承攬商「朋億公司」員工阮世麒、藍依權,昨天下午進入顯影液儲槽維修檢查;藍依權從三公尺高的儲槽體外爬梯,要進入槽內,阮世麒在槽外拍照記錄過程時,兩人都跌入槽內。

友達廖姓廠長說,工人賴建宏、許福助及友達員工劉仁志將兩人救出,藍依權與阮世麒送到台中榮總已無心跳和呼吸,全身發紺、結膜充血並有肺水腫,無明顯外傷。輕傷的三人,只有許福助有結膜充血情形。

阮世麒的父親質疑友達沒有做好防護設施,在工人下槽清洗時,沒有其他人在上面照應,還質疑槽底空氣不流通。

藍的父母趕到醫院,焦急在急診室等候,一看到兒子遺體,幾近崩潰,站都站不穩,由親人架著,才勉強能行走。

廖姓廠長表示,三期廠區是生產四十吋面板的八代廠,前天已先驗收數座化學槽,不知昨天為何發生意外。朋億公司處長蘇敏郎表示,槽內為強鹼,進入前需先確定含氧量夠才可以,為何發生意外,還要再瞭解。" udn


405
ref.
數位島電子報-活動快訊(2009-03-30)
佛學數位典藏資源整合之國內研討會

"漢清兄,吉祥如意!
轉寄資料敬悉。
原函主旨料必當作:數位島「嶼」電子報。
瑞麟感恩合十"

404
Many reworks in the every day work.
In NTU campus, the concrete works wiping away the dirts they lleft in the road.

---
WWS use recast of the existing managerial tools instead of my using "repackage".
I think recast is better word.

403

Nonsense and prejudice: "說到品質,消費者會馬上想到德系車。的確,品質之于德系車就如同性價比之于韓系車,油耗經濟之于日本車,"

402

台中市公益路 大墩諸街的騎樓是 五十年以前的水準
跟苗栗市相差不多
不過 齒科的設備和服務 可能超出數十年
現在醫生都合縱看聯合診

401

立委補選
選務/市政搞得越來越差
以前投票都在隔壁的教堂
現在教堂搞起 狂歡義賣會
就到百公尺外的台電--以前消費券在此
辦事小姐猛聊天
check 老半天才發現投票處 在五百米外辛亥路橋下
該處戒備身森嚴 辦事員近數十位
交通危險
不過大概分到選舉之意外辦事財

Illustration by Jason Logan



400

分業化に伴い危機にさらされる企業のブランド。現場の品質意識を高めよ
ITpro
食 品業界ではブランドを棄損する品質事故や品質偽装事件が相次いだ。製造業やIT(情報技術)業界では偽装請負(違法請負)問題が大きく話題になり、現場の スキルやコンプライアンス意識の低下を危惧する指摘が相次いだ。そして金融業界では、「トリプルA」や「ダブルA」 ...

うけおい 【請負】

    • (1)請け負うこと。依頼人と日限・報酬等を定めて仕事を引き受けること。また、その仕事。
      • 「―仕事」
    • (2)当事者の一方(請負人)がその仕事を完成することを約し、相手方がその仕事の結果に対して報酬を与えることを約する契約。請負契約。
    • (3)保証すること。請け合うこと。
      • 「小まんが願ひ―故/浄瑠璃・丹波与作(中)」


399
Argyris 的書處理這些諮詢之可能陷阱
examples of advice about leadership, learning, change, and employee commitment,

398
Peter Drucker, the world famous business guru, once said that "people have time to do it over again, but don't have time to do it right in the first place." How true!
plan-do-check-act 等 許多人可以朗朗上口
事實上 它很困難的
譬如說

TOP STORY


397

「hitherto」的搜尋結果

「heretofore」的搜尋結果

here·to·fore (hîr'tə-fôr', -fōr') pronunciation
adv.

Up to the present time; before this; previously.

[Middle English : here, here; see here + tofore, previously (from Old English tōforan : , to; see to + foran, before, from fore; see fore).]


hith·er·to (TH'ər-tū', hĭTH'ər-tū') pronunciation
adv.

Until this time: The weather, which had hitherto been sunny and mild, suddenly turned cold.


396
周四明目書屋

杜文仁在輔大寫博士學位論文 華格納與江文也之樂教

這樂 採禮記之古意

杜說不懂音樂難知畢氏 柏拉圖 尼采等
不過尼采自己的音樂很難聽 除了表現其意圖之浪漫主義

他相信相對論只有愛因斯坦可以找出

“Einstein 與 Hume 等等打過交道, 他的 "教養是法國 數學家Poincaré 呼之欲出的相對論無法取代的”

“Einstein’s Clocks, Poincaré’s Maps.”


知道北京華夏翻譯 經濟社會學手冊 (普林斯頓大學出版社)

希望江老師治學有點 focus 譬如說 每年讀一本A 氏重要作品

2009年3月27日 星期五

Assembly Line Concert in the Carmakers’ Crisis通用汽車公司董事長將離職

一位知情人士週日透露﹐通用汽車公司(General Motors Corp.)董事長兼首席執行長瓦格納(Rick Wagoner)將按照白宮的要求離職﹐以確保美國聯邦政府能向該公司提供新的救助。

Associated Press
通用汽車CEO瓦格納
預計政府的汽車業任務小組週一就將公佈對通用汽車及其競爭對手克萊斯勒公司(Chrysler LLC)提供新支持的方案細節。自去年底以來﹐兩家公司一直依靠低息貸款度日。

通用汽車和克萊斯勒正在爭取同工會、債權人和其它利益相關方在政府設定的3月31日最後期限前達成協議﹐以贏得進一步的支持﹐避免立刻償還現有貸款。

這個最後期限可以最多延長30天﹐以便能有更多時間同工會和債權人達成協議。

面對30年來最為嚴峻的汽車業銷售環境﹐這兩家汽車製造商都面臨沉重的債務和比競爭對手更高的成本結構。

還有傳言說通用汽車首席運營長亨德森(Fritz Henderson)可能領導這家公司。通用汽車對此不予置評。

一位不願透露姓名的公司高管表達出了汽車行業普遍存在的心聲﹐即汽車業受到了比尋求救助的金融服務公司更粗暴的對待﹐儘管上一屆政府有時也要求更換金融公司的高管。

他說﹐這是一件錯誤的事情。他們對銀行心慈手軟﹐我們卻要低聲下氣。這不是我們目前想要的。

任務小組可能提供救助

外界普遍預計﹐美國政府任命的汽車業任務小組將批准對這兩家公司新的的支持方案﹐不過條件會更加苛刻(如較短的最後期限等)﹐以迫使它們與工會和債權人達成交易。

美國的決定受到了歐洲許多政府﹐以及加拿大和亞洲的密切關注﹐它們也被通用汽車視為尋求額外援助的目標。

通用汽車已經從美國財政部獲得了134億美元的貸款﹐並在2月份時表示還需要至多164億美元的額外援助。

通用汽車說﹐由於當前重組帶來的效益﹐公司4月份不需要額外的貸款﹐但一些業內人士表示﹐市場狀況正在惡化。

該公司最大的供應商之一江森自控(Johnson Controls Inc.)上週五下調了美國的汽車銷售預期﹐將截至9月30日折合成年率的銷售量下調至880萬輛。汽車製造商將在4月1日公佈3月份銷售情況﹐江森自控預計這將是33年來最糟糕的一個3月份。

底特律三巨頭中最小的克萊斯勒正在推動同菲亞特(Fiat SpA)的結盟﹐預計這家意大利公司會先持有其35%的股份﹐同時獲得將持股份額增加到控股水平的選擇權。

菲亞特不會向克萊斯勒注入現金或承擔債務﹐但會協助其從事產品的開發和分銷。克萊斯勒還說﹐公司能夠繼續作為一個獨立實體而存在。

福特汽車(Ford Motor Co.)一直避免在美國尋求政府資金﹐而且由於另兩家美國汽車公司削減營銷支出並難以為消費者提供融資﹐福特汽車的國內市場份額出現了上升。

John D. Stoll


Detroit Faces Its Critics With Anger and Tears

Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times

Mary Scheible, a college counselor at Loyola High School in Detroit’s north side.


Published: March 27, 2009

DETROIT — Just across the city line, AJ’s Music Cafe is hosting a 10-day marathon of live music called the Assembly Line Concert, meant to both help auto workers and set a world record for an uninterrupted performance.

Skip to next paragraph
Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times

Cesar Muglia, center, a skilled tradesman for Ford,in his Canton, Mich., home with his family.

Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times

The scene at AJ’s Music Cafe in Dearborn, where a 10-day marathon concert will be held in support of auto workers and their union.

Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times

Marty Hershock, history professor at the University of Michigan branch in Dearborn, in St. Hedwig’s Catholic Church.

Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times

Bishop John Henry Sheard of Bailey Cathedral.

Among the dozens of bands performing this week under banners for the United Automobile Workers union is the unfortunately named “National Ghost.”

It is a label that Detroit and its auto industry are trying to fend off as they rally support for a lifeline from the Obama administration, which appears to be willing to provide more short-term help to General Motors and Chrysler, but is still not ruling out the possibility of letting the companies go bankrupt.

“Detroit is a city that makes things,” said Mary Scheible, a native Detroiter and college guidance counselor at Loyola High, an all-male school in a gritty northside neighborhood.

“I wish people would attempt to understand the kind of person who has worked on the line, and whose father worked on the line, and whose grandfather worked on the line,” she said, her voice breaking as she talked above the din of adolescent chatter. “There is a sense of pride in that.”

The city has been lacking for leaders to give voice to such sentiments. Detroit still has only an acting mayor, Ken Cockrel Jr., after Kwame M. Kilpatrick resigned amid a text-messaging scandal. And the auto companies’ chief executives were chastened last fall, when members of Congress berated them for flying to Congressional hearings on corporate jets.

The state’s logical cheerleader in chief, Gov. Jennifer M. Granholm, has all but disqualified herself by becoming an adviser on the auto bailout to the Obama administration, associating herself with the view expressed by the president in an interview with “60 Minutes” on Sunday that “the only thing less popular than putting money in the banks is putting money into the auto industry.”

In interviews in recent days, a cross-section of Detroiters — often through tears, or with anger and anguish — said they wished they could convince the country that G.M. and Chrysler, and by extension the city, deserved to be saved.

Marty Hershock, the son of a Detroit police officer who grew up in a neighborhood filled with auto workers, said area residents were perplexed by both the nation’s indifference and scorn since the auto companies sought bailouts last fall.

“There’s an overwhelming sense of confusion and anxiety,” said Mr. Hershock, a professor of American history at the University of Michigan’s branch in Dearborn. “People don’t know where to turn.”

Paul W. Smith, a popular morning show host on WJR-AM, tries to assure listeners that Detroit can survive.

“We’re going to get through all of this, and we’re going to get through it together,” Mr. Smith said last week, as the first streaks of sunlight illuminated the city skyline outside his window in the Fisher Building. “We’re not going to let something like this get the best of us.”

That determination has helped Detroit through numerous boom and bust cycles, said Kevin Boyle, a Detroit native and professor of history at Ohio State University. “Without those true believers, Detroit or any city would become a hollow place,” he said.

But Mr. Smith echoed a common feeling around Detroit that the city was being unfairly bashed by members of Congress who did not understand the contributions it had made.

“The auto executives should have stood up to those guys,” said Dane Fortney, a manager with Lacks Trim Systems, an automotive supplier that makes chrome-plated trim for cars like the Dodge Challenger.

Mr. Fortney, a former high school football player who grew up near a G.M. plant in Ypsilanti, Mich., was upset on Sunday by Mr. Obama’s interview on “60 Minutes,” when he laughed while discussing the unpopularity of auto executives.

“The intelligentsia has never liked this industry since Ralph Nader in the 1960s, and now they’ve got what they wanted,” Mr. Fortney said.

Cesar Muglia is a skilled trades worker at Ford Motor, working the same job that his father, also named Cesar, landed after emigrating from Argentina in the early 1960s.

Even though Ford is not applying for federal aid, Mr. Muglia estimated he had given up $12,000 worth of benefits in recent months, including the tuition assistance he hoped would pay for a master’s degree and a college scholarship for his daughter.

He and other Ford workers also lost cost-of-living increases and other payments when they agreed to concessions this winter that G.M. and Chrysler workers have yet to accept, even though their fates are on the line.

Even so, Mr. Muglia supports government help for Ford’s crosstown rivals, which he said deserve the money more than financial institutions. “These are loans,” he said of the $22 billion in additional money sought by the industry. “Those other industries, those were pretty much handouts.”

But even in Detroit, not everyone is willing to absolve the companies and their union from blame. “I knew we couldn’t keep going up, and up, and up,” said Bishop John Henry Sheard, leader of Bailey Cathedral, which represents 90 chapters of the United Church of God in Christ across Michigan.

Sitting in the chapel of the cathedral on Detroit’s northwest side, Bishop Sheard leveled criticism at both U.A.W. leaders and industry executives for negotiating contracts and accepting salaries he considered far too rich.

Normally, he would oppose the bailout “except to help the people who are suffering right now,” he said. “They need some help, regardless of how they got into that predicament.”

Like many here, Bishop Sheard, a native of Mississippi, is in Detroit because of the auto industry. His father first landed a $5-a-day job at the foundry at Ford’s giant Rouge plant in 1930, one of the few places blacks were allowed to work. Bishop Sheard eventually followed his father north, getting a job not in a car plant but in a car wash where he earned $35 a week. That was still $15 a week more than he received toiling in fields back home.

The chance for opportunity also drew Mr. Hershock’s family from Poland to a neighborhood in southwest Detroit, anchored by St. Hedwig’s Catholic Church. Now 106 years old, the soaring brick church still watches imposingly over a dwindling congregation that now encompasses two parishes, and whose school and convent have long since been sold off.

One day last week, Mr. Hershock, the University of Michigan professor, sat in the pew where his family once worshiped, beneath a stained glass window proclaiming, “Honor Thy Mother and Father.” His students include former auto workers who have been laid off and are trying to build new careers.

Without federal support for Detroit, still more workers could face a similar, uncertain fate, he said.

“They’re thinking, ‘If this happens to me, what’s going to happen to my children?’ ” Mr. Hershock said.


*****

March 28, 2009

U.S. Expected to Give More Financing to Automakers

DETROIT — The Obama administration will probably extend more short-term aid to General Motors and Chrysler on Monday, but will impose a strict deadline for bondholders and union workers to make concessions that would help the ailing automakers become viable businesses and avert bankruptcy.

President Obama’s auto task force is expected to say that despite its recommendation of more federal assistance for G.M. and Chrysler, bankruptcy could still be a possibility for either company, according to people close to the discussions.

The task force was in its final stages Friday of determining how to keep the two Detroit companies afloat. Meanwhile, the automakers were negotiating retiree health care costs with the United Automobile Workers union, and their debt burden with bondholders and lenders.

But both immediate and longer-term help will be tied to completing the restructurings that G.M. and Chrysler began after receiving $17.4 billion in federal loans.

The administration is expected to set a short deadline — weeks rather than months — to compel the automakers, their lenders and the U.A.W. to reach agreement.

Both G.M. and Chrysler are close to exhausting the loans they received since December. Without more aid soon, the companies could run out of cash to run their vast operations, which employ about 140,000 workers in the United States.

The Obama administration has concluded that both G.M. and Chrysler still require what the president on Thursday called “drastic” and “painful” actions to fix their businesses.

G.M.’s request for up to $16.6 billion more in federal loans will be treated separately from Chrysler’s request for an additional $5 billion, according to administration officials who asked not to be quoted because the deliberations were continuing.

So far, neither company has satisfied the requirements of the original loan agreements with the Bush administration — in particular, the substitution of company stock for 50 percent of the cost of funding retiree health care and reducing their unsecured debt levels by two-thirds.

Mr. Obama, who has been meeting with his advisers in recent days to reach his decision, is planning a formal announcement on Monday at the White House.

The White House press secretary, Robert Gibbs, said Friday that the president would not only outline a plan to keep the companies operating in the short term, but would address long-term viability as well.

“How do these companies get through the global recession that sees a great decrease in demand for the product?” Mr. Gibbs said. “And how, when we emerge from recession to recovery, how do we have a sustainable path that makes good business decisions not just for one year but for many years?”

Mr. Obama met twice on Thursday with Steven Rattner and Ronald Bloom, the former investment bankers who lead the auto task force, but there are still some remaining issues to be resolved before Monday’s announcement, Mr. Gibbs said. Mr. Obama left Friday for Camp David, the presidential retreat, and will make the final decision on his plan there, Mr. Gibbs said.

The announcement on Monday will usher in a more intensive period of oversight by the government of G.M. and Chrysler, which lost a combined $38 billion in 2008, when United States vehicle sales fell to their lowest level in more than 25 years.

The third Detroit car company, Ford Motor Company, has, so far, not sought direct federal assistance. Ford, which lost more than $14 billion last year, has repeatedly said it had enough cash to finance its own broad restructuring efforts.

Mr. Obama and his top auto advisers have stressed that the administration would do everything in its power to prevent a sudden bankruptcy of the big automakers, which could set off cascading failures throughout the industry’s extensive supply chain and dealer networks.

“We need to preserve a U.S. auto industry,” the president said Thursday in a town hall event conducted over the Internet. “We will provide them with some help.”

But the president’s task force will continue to consider a government-managed bankruptcy as a final resort for both G.M. and Chrysler, according to people familiar with the deliberations.

The threat of bankruptcy is intended to accelerate talks between the troubled automakers and their biggest creditors.

Under the terms of its original loans, G.M. must substitute company stock for half of the $20 billion it owes to a new health care trust for retired union workers and surviving spouses.

G.M. also needs to reduce its $27 billion in unsecured debt by two-thirds. So far, a committee representing some bondholders has balked at an offer estimated at as low as 15 cents on the dollar value of the bonds.

The company declined to comment Friday on the talks, except to say they were continuing, according to a G.M. spokeswoman.

Chrysler is facing similar terms with its lenders and the union.

People familiar with the task force discussions said the Monday announcement would set very specific targets and conditions for G.M. and Chrysler to meet separately.

The companies are due to submit their own progress reports on the restructuring plans they initially gave the government last month.

G.M., however, may be forced to alter its plan somewhat. The plan currently calls for the elimination of 47,000 jobs worldwide and a significant reduction in brands, models and dealerships.

Chrysler has released one plan to exist as a stand-alone company, and an alternative one that includes joining forces with the Italian auto company Fiat.

The task force has not ruled out supporting a Fiat alliance for Chrysler but is intent on keeping all options open for the company, including revival of previous merger talks between Chrysler and G.M. at some point.

Administration officials have said the bailout of the automakers is at a turning point, and the task force would intensify its oversight of G.M. and Chrysler until talks with the union and bondholders reached a conclusion.

Those officials also said the administration had no intention of nationalizing the auto companies or taking direct control of their managements.

2009年3月26日 星期四

戴明愛智合作社連絡簿( 59):友情 2006

無意中看到2006年3月的一封舊信



戴明愛智合作社連絡簿( 59):友情

2006/3/13DAVE HSU來訪。談些家常:他住在陽光山林 20 年前去過一次,現在據云綠數成蔭。

David 跟我談些他們的改善經驗。

我們相約每周將自己的心得寫出交換(日文「心得帖」)。

我說,產業之有心人應有三書:專業的(譬如說他對 design性能)、一般管理心得、自傳(回憶錄)

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《艾略特文學論文文集》「譯者前言」中,「十七世紀玄學派詩人稱為機智( wit)的統一體:巧妙的將思想、情感和感覺三個因素結合成一體」之說法,正是『戴明修煉 II』的主旨。

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Dear Tony, 你選的『西遊記 三圖:大鬧龍宮、大鬧天宮、取回真經』請參考,如果有問題請通知 .

hc

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英國 The Observer 周日 Sunday March 12, 2006 Simon Caulkin 專欄談企業界經常被管理潮流 `之空話 迷思所惑 Bosses in love with claptrap and blinded by ideologies

他引 Deming 說如果太刻板重視目標之追求,常常會不惜一切但求達標、犧牲一切

Incentives do incentivise - but be careful what you wish for. As W Edwards Deming said, people with sharp enough targets will probably meet them even if they have to destroy the company to do so. And what about change or die?The trouble, they say, is that companies are so bad at it that 'empirically it is change and die'.

claptrap noun [U] INFORMAL DISAPPROVING
foolish, meaningless talk which should not be believed:
Don't believe a word of what he says. It's just a load of claptrap.

王大哥:

陳寬仁老師今天來我處閒聊數小時。我們覺得王大哥的退休紀念會( CSQ)勢在必行。所以請你選一時間(因為七月你可能赴美)。其他由我與林公負責。

現在最優先的是王老師要說 YES,然後發動,請考慮一下。

漢清敬上

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下周三晚 CSQ討論中原授 Kano 先生榮譽博士之先前作業。

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寄英文「製造的近視」(仿 T. Levit 之「行銷的近視」)給 Kevin Justing Kevin HBR 之訪問稿。

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狄更斯『德魯德疑案』( The Mystery of Edwin Drood (unfinished) (1870) ,項星耀譯)首章注解:狄更斯在這章的寫作要點曾寫道:「接觸到主旨:『惡人若回頭 …..』」

聖公會早晚禱都用此開頭:「 ……惡人若回頭離開所行的惡、行正直與合理的事、他的靈魂即可得救。」

(這可能就是 W. E. Deming 每天之禱詞)

西 Ezekiel

18:27 [hb5] 再者、惡人若回頭離開所行的惡、行正直與合理的事、他必將性命救活了.

[lb5] 再者,惡人若回轉離開他所行的惡,而行公平正義的事,他就會將性命救活。

[nb5] 還有,惡人若回轉離開他所行的惡,行正直公義的事,他就可以使自己的性命存活。

[asv] Again, when the wicked man turneth away from his wickedness that he hath committed, and doeth that which is lawful and right, he shall save his soul alive.

[kjv] Again, when the wicked man turneth away from his wickedness that he hath committed, and doeth that which is lawful and right, he shall save his soul alive.

[bbe] Again, when the evil-doer, turning away from the evil he has done, does what is ordered and right, he will have life for his soul.

台北三月二九日聚會通知 a social phenomenon

Quote

"We dance round in a ring and suppose, but the secret sits in the middle and knows."Robert Frost, "The Secret Sits" (1942)



王老師 周四提出研擬 "四日研討會"的議題



“I don’t write books for people to be friends with the characters,” Ms. Heller says of her new novel, “The Believers.
“If you want to find friends, go to a cocktail party.”

「party」的搜尋結果




台北三月二九日聚會通知


時間: 三月二十九日 周日

主要會議從下午二時半起到五點
不過 從十點起 現場開放給參與者小敘

地點: 台北市新生南路三段八八號二樓 台大麥當勞樓上 真理堂隔壁

開放給對 Deming 博士思想之應用有興趣的朋友
目前有
賴丹桂女士
Bill Scherkenbach 和王 WHS 戴久永熊維強 george_pan (潘治平) 等先生 (劉健雄)
報名參加

報名方式: 請寄信hcsimonl@gmail.com
電 02 2365-0127 或 o2 2362-5776
106台北市大安區新生南路三段88號
連結: <http://maps.google.com.tw/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=zh-TW&q=106%E5%8F%B0%E5%8C%97%E5%B8%82%E5%A4%A7%E5%AE%89%E5%8D%80%E6%96%B0%E7%94%9F%E5%8D%97%E8%B7%AF%E4%B8%89%E6%AE%B588%E8%99%9F&sll=25.015579,121.52647&sspn=0.014156,0.038195&ie=UTF8&lr=lang_ja&cd=3&geocode=FRS_fQEdqXM-Bw&split=0&ll=25.020401,121.527908&spn=0.034455,0.087547&z=14&brcurrent=3,0x3442aa2c196a3a0b:0x595d3af570d705b4>


*****

「rescue」的搜尋結果




*****

「toyota」的搜尋結果



Toyota: Fifty Years in Motion : an Autobiography

Eiji Toyoda, Toyoda 著 - 1987 - 170 頁
Translation of: Ketsudan.

2009年 02月 25日 12:08
豐田新總裁繼承祖業 回歸本源應對危機

自己祖父創建的豐田汽車公司(Toyota Motor)﹐豐田章男(Akio Toyoda)這位公司即將上任的總裁有著冷靜的認識﹕豐田汽車太過自負了。

本週一﹐全球最大汽車廠商豐田汽車的三位高管宣佈退休。他們曾在過去四年領導豐田汽車﹐其中包括該公司全球擴張的主要規劃者之一木下光男(Mitsuo Kinoshita)。他們的離職為豐田章男按計劃改造這家世界最大汽車公司鋪平了道路。

Bloomberg News
豐田汽車即將上任的總裁豐田章男預計將對這家
汽車巨頭的生產和設計方式進行改革以節省成本
豐田章男可能會率先集中精力摒棄現任總裁渡邊捷昭(Katsuaki Watanabe)帶來的“革命性變革”﹐即改變豐田汽車設計汽車和工廠的方式。這一變革帶來了技術進步﹐但卻常常推高了豐田汽車的生產成本。

據知情人士透露﹐現年52歲的豐田章男還在努力應對導致公司和一些美國經銷商產生分歧的定價策略﹔經銷商認為豐田汽車定價過於昂貴。

全球汽車廠商現在的日子都不好過﹐豐田汽車要比通用汽車(General Motors)等競爭對手財力雄厚得多。通用汽車目前正掙扎在破產邊緣。不過﹐豐田汽車預計當前財年將出現59年來的首個年度淨虧損。

豐田章男可能會關閉公司在北美和日本的工廠﹐豐田汽車近年來在這兩個市場迅速增長﹐目前已經擁有太多的製造產能。豐田汽車可能還會自1950年以來首次在日本裁員﹐當年有3,000名工人被迫失業。

木下光男
據知情人士透露﹐豐田章男沒有將責任都推給經濟衰退。從他所傳遞出的信息可以看出﹐豐田章男認為他的前任偏離了節儉和效率的核心理念﹐從而加重了公司的問題。

其他方面﹐豐田章男可能會摒棄那些技術複雜的車內小革新﹐例如為新款普瑞斯(Prius)設計的太陽能冷卻系統。此外﹐豐田汽車還將仔細評估一項成本高昂的新組裝線技術﹐這項技術將車體浸入一個染料桶﹐然後進行旋轉上色。

豐田汽車發表聲明稱﹐公司認為管理層過去做出的決定符合當時的時代需求。在這份由渡邊捷昭、木下光男和豐田章男共同署名的聲明中﹐豐田汽車拒絕回答具體質疑。聲明稱﹐公司認為某些質疑沒有反映實際狀況﹐但卻拒絕指出是哪些質疑。

豐田章男是14年來首位執掌公司的豐田家族成員。

豐田章男的父親、83歲的豊田章一郎(Shoichiro Toyoda)說﹐我認為豐田汽車為了與美國汽車廠商競爭可能有點過度擴張了。公司有很多方面需要進行評估。豊田章一郎曾在上世紀八十年代出任公司總裁。

豐田章男出任公司總裁的任命還有待今年6月份股東大會批准。在宣佈豐田章男獲得晉升的同時﹐原總裁渡邊捷昭被任命為公司副董事長﹔渡邊捷昭自2005年6月起擔任公司總裁﹐。

Katsuaki Watanabe
這 一管理層調整反映出了豐田汽車內部的危機感﹐這家公司正面臨著70年曆史上最為艱難的時期。過去十年﹐豐田汽車以危險的速度實現了迅猛擴張。在今年67歲 的渡邊捷昭領導下﹐豐田汽車在截至2008年3月的財年實現了創紀錄的1.72萬億日圓淨利潤。去年豐田汽車又超過了通用汽車﹐成為全球銷量最大的汽車廠 商。

但如今﹐豐田汽車預計在截至3月31日的當前財年將出現3,500億日圓的淨虧損。不只是銷量銳減﹐公司的收益也受到日圓走強的進一步打擊﹐日圓升值意味著豐田汽車的海外收益兌換成日圓時會縮水。

近期反映豐田汽車困境的一個跡象是﹐據知情人士透露﹐渡邊捷昭在去年年底的一次會議上要求中層管理人士“共度難關”(即降薪)﹐隨後又要求他們考慮購買公司一輛新車以幫助提振銷量。

由於公司在日本的庫存車輛達到前所未有的數量﹐豐田汽車不得不動用旗下富士賽車場(Fuji Speedway)的停車場來存放汽車。

名古屋東海學院大學(Tokai Gakuin University)企業管理教授Koichi Shimokawa說﹐豐田汽車如此專注於成為全球頭號汽車廠商﹐以致於去年經濟危機衝擊美國市場的時候﹐豐田汽車未能及時削減產量。美國是豐田汽車最大的市場。

他表示﹐豐田汽車過於相信其競爭力﹐一直在狂踩油門。

直到去年年底﹐豐田章男和木下光男在總裁的競爭中還難分高下。現年63歲的木下光男是豐田現任總裁渡邊捷昭的得力助手。

就在去年年底時﹐豐田企業元老們還在為誰該在渡邊捷昭兩年任期結束後接任總裁而吵做一團﹐有人擔心豐田章男太年輕了。還有人認為向豐田這樣一家大型上市公司不該讓“本家人”來擔任最高職位﹐即便豐田章男也算得上是公司的老員工了﹐曾見證了中國汽車市場的迅猛增長。

事情的轉機出現在11月於公司總部豐田市召開的一次會議。據知情人士說﹐豐田章男的父親豐田章一郎對與會者說了一句微妙的話﹕“為何這些日子來所有的關鍵決策都是由渡邊君和木下君作出的﹖”他在話中使用了標準的敬稱。

據 知情人士透露﹐令豐田章一郎生氣的是﹐渡邊捷昭和木下光男2007年推翻了公司原來的安排﹐自行決定了密西西比州一家在建汽車廠要投產的車型。他們事先未 與其他高管商議﹐便將原計劃在該廠生產的“漢蘭達”(Highlander)運動型多用途車(SUV)換成了普銳斯(PRIUS)混合動力汽車。

知情人士稱﹐豐田章一郎的用語雖然克制﹐但他的這番話﹐以及公司別的高管在其他會議上的批評最終使豐田章男人氣上升。

豐田章一郎表示他記不起來這次會議了。而豐田公司在聲明中稱﹐公司認為﹐需要一個新的管理團隊來應對當前的艱難局面。

現在還說不準豐田汽車靠回歸本源的辦法是否足以重振這家龐大的企業﹐特別是在全球經濟疲軟的情況下。

其 他曾將創始家族成員推為掌門人的汽車製造商只取得了有限成功。例如來自福特汽車公司(Ford Motor Co.)創始家族的比爾•福特﹐從他2001年自雅克•納賽爾(Jacques Nasser)手中接過大權後﹐福特就一直拿不出熱賣車型﹐有利可圖的SUV汽車也因為汽油價格高企而銷量萎縮。2006年﹐比爾•福特將首席執行長一職 交給非家族出身的穆拉利(Alan Mulally)﹐此人直到現在還在收拾福特汽車的爛攤子。

當被問及豐田章男擁有的家族姓氏是否幫他贏得了公司總裁之職時﹐豐田章一郎稱﹐“我們從來不會事先知道由誰擔任總裁。現任總裁就下任總裁人選作出了最佳決定﹐只不過此人恰好是我的兒子。”豐田家族擁有豐田汽車大約2%的股權。

作為原來的五位執行副總裁之一﹐豐田章男對公司目前的問題也不是完全沒有責任。他從2007年6月開始負責日本市場﹐豐田汽車在國內的銷量和市場份額一直在下滑。

豐田汽車眼下的目標是創造“合理利潤”﹐即便是在其全球銷量(不包括大發和日野這兩家主要的關聯廠商)由2007年創紀錄的840萬輛銳減至700萬輛之際。據諮詢公司CSM Worldwide的估計﹐豐田目前擁有年產汽車約970萬輛的能力。

豊田章一郎
長期以來﹐豐田章男一直信奉被稱為“現地現物”的公司座右銘﹐即領導要走出辦公室﹐對存在的問題進行實地考察。據知情人士稱﹐在這條座右銘的指引下﹐過去一年來﹐豐田章男一直在默默搜集顯示公司已迷失方向的證據。

知情人士稱﹐令豐田章男特別擔心的是﹐渡邊捷昭和木下光男太過強調實現年經營利潤2萬億日圓的目標。豐田汽車在截至2007年3月的財年中曾達到過這一水平。

在盈利目標的驅動下﹐豐田管理層設想美國消費者會願意為豐田車付出高價﹐這對於豐田汽車長期以來奉行的按質定價戰略是一個轉變。兩年前﹐豐田開始提高一系列車型的售價﹐當中包括其最傑出的車型這一──2008年初面市的新版卡羅拉(Corolla)。

據美國的經銷商稱﹐豐田的美國銷售部門將卡羅拉的價格定在比其美國經銷商認為人們能夠接受的基本家庭用車價格高出約1,000至1,500美元的水平。因此﹐銷售疲軟也就不足為奇了。豐田在2008年2月共售出21,000輛卡羅拉﹐比上年同期下降了25%。

豐田章男聽到卡羅拉銷售緩慢的風聲後﹐當即飛往美國﹐與經銷商開會商討對策﹐並親自進行調查。

南加州資深經銷商卡明斯(Cliff Cummings)在去年3月有十幾位經銷商參加的一個牛排晚餐上警告豐田章男說﹐高定價是一條錯誤的道路。卡明斯說他告訴豐田章男﹐豐田汽車價格公道的形象已經深入人心﹐而它現在卻在自己破壞這一形像。

卡明斯在隨後與豐田章男和其他豐田高管交談後預計﹐豐田汽車將調整定價策略。

豐田也在對其工程師進行約束﹐這些人設計的新功能偶爾會脫離該公司一貫堅持的實用路線。

比如﹐今年推出的新款普銳斯就有一個太陽能排風系統選項﹐這個系統可以在停車熄火後保持車內涼爽。分析師說﹐這類發明讓這款車的零售價可能達到28,000美元﹐大大高於目前的22,000美元。

美國最大的普銳斯經銷商之一斯圖爾特(Earl Stewart)說﹐“坦率地講﹐這的確令我頭痛。他預計普銳斯將面臨來自本田汽車(Honda)新款低價混合動力車Insight的激烈競爭。

斯圖爾特說﹐我已經對普銳斯加大打折力度﹐以維持銷量。

再就是豐田“日式涮涮鍋”風格的噴漆系統。豐田的生產部門是公司最引以為傲的業務﹐它制訂的高效“精益生產”理念多年來已為眾多希望提高效率的公司所效仿﹐其中既有通用汽車和惠普(Hewlett-Packard)這樣的大公司﹐也包括醫院和超市。

現 任總裁渡邊捷昭一直支持技術創新﹐他鼓勵手下的工程師大膽縮短噴漆過程。豐田的工程師決定打破傳統﹐不再慢慢拖動汽車通過一個115英尺長的防腐底漆噴涂 系統﹐而是由機器人手臂將車身抬起﹐然後快速在一個油漆池中浸一下﹐這就縮短了噴漆線的長度。工程師將它比作涮鍋﹐同夾起一片肉迅速在火鍋中涮一下類似。

不過﹐知情人士稱﹐新系統的成本大約是傳統工藝的4倍﹐同時豐田章男認為其在噴漆質量和效率上的改進微不足道。

同樣可能受到拋棄的還有:一種在使用過程中可比傳統替代品排出更少二氧化碳的新型“生態塑料”﹐但它的生產成本過於昂貴。

豐田章男必須儘快解決的另一個難題是公司在日本的過剩產能。90年代末﹐日圓走強提高了日本的汽車生產成本﹐豐田開始削減國內產能﹐增加了在海外的產量。

但日圓走勢此後出現了逆轉﹐在2005年至2007年期間走軟至最低120日圓兌1美元。豐田決定利用這點﹐增加在國內的生產﹐因為日圓疲軟可以讓出口更為有利可圖。到2007年﹐豐田在國內的產量高達423萬輛﹐比8年前增加了100萬輛。

此舉直接違背了豐田的長期理念﹐即不根據匯率的短期波動做出在哪裡設廠的長期決策。

豐田章一郎在談到公司的管理團隊時說﹐我們是人而不是神﹐並非十全十美。有時甚至老虎伍茲(Tiger Woods)也會失手。

Matthew Karnitschnig / Liam Pleven / Serena Ng



English version of Japanese business book comes to USA
The English version of Japan's best-selling business book of 2007 that was originally written as a textbook for seventh- and eighth-graders goes on sale in the USA on March 6.

Should Problem Solving 101 sell well in the USA, author Ken Watanabe will pull off a rare recent instance of transferring business advice from the world's second-largest economy to the largest. That was fairly common two decades ago until the Japanese economy faltered and U.S. executives soured on many things Japanese.

In a phone interview from Tokyo, Watanabe says he has no idea how Problem Solving 101 will sell in the USA, and his U.S. publisher, Portfolio, has delayed a book tour until a flop is out of the question. Soon after its U.S. launch, the book is expected to roll out in Britain, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Israel, Italy, Indonesia, the Netherlands and Thailand.

It has sold nearly 370,000 copies in Japan, according to editor Hiromi Maesawa of Japanese publisher Diamond, benefiting not only from its popularity at companies such as Otsuka Pharmaceuticals and Mitsui, but from a snowball of publicity from newspapers, TV and the magazine equivalents of GQ and Vogue. It was even plugged by Junichi Okada, a member of a popular boy band.

The book came out just as many Japanese were casting doubts on "hypercapitalism, and everyone was looking into a purposeful way to live," Maesawa says. "It became a social phenomenon."

Watanabe says he wrote the book in response to a national drumbeat of Japanese criticism about its education system that emphasizes rote memorization. Other Japanese books about problem solving had been written for the business market, but Watanabe made it simple for middle-schoolers. That simplicity struck a chord with business.

Watanabe went to school in Japan until the eighth grade before moving to Greenwich, Conn. He went on to an economics degree at Yale, a Harvard MBA and a job as a McKinsey consultant. He says U.S. schools don't focus on memorization and are much better at teaching critical thinking but still fall short in the discipline of problem solving.

Problem Solving 101 is a practical tutorial of slightly more than 100 pages. Using juvenile-looking illustrations and flow charts, it walks readers through a diagnosis and the steps toward a solution. One example is The Mushroom Lovers, a rock band that can't get an audience at concerts. Watanabe instructs readers to think like doctors trying to cure a patient. He recommends listing potential causes of the problem, arriving at a hypothesis for the most likely cause, analyzing that cause, coming up with possible solutions, then prioritizing action and implementing a plan.

Japanese versions of U.S. books, such as Good to Great by Jim Collins and The World is Flat by Thomas Friedman, have been popular in Japan. Warren Buffett is revered there, Watanabe says. Mary Buffett, Warren Buffett's former daughter-in-law, says two of her books, The Buffettology Workbook and The Tao of Warren Buffett, are best sellers there.

But the cross-over from Japan has dried up. Books that sold well in the USA that were first written in Japanese include Toyota Production System by Taiichi Ohno (21 years ago); Made in Japan by Sony co-founder Akio Morita (21); The Mind of the Strategist by Kenichi Ohmae (18); and, most recently, The Knowledge-Creating Company by Ikujiro Nonaka (14), a disciple of U.S. business guru Peter Drucker, who is well known in Japan.

Many popular business models steeped in quality and statistics, such as Six Sigma, have their roots in the 1950s teachings of American William Edwards Deming, who became a hero among Japanese manufacturers decades before his ideas began to catch on in the USA.


2009年 03月 04日 08:47
連豐田也求助

田汽車公司(Toyota Motor Corp.)向政府求助。就算是在當前的低迷形勢下﹐這個消息還是讓人震驚。

為 豐田汽車貸款和租賃業務提供資金的Toyota Financial Services週二稱﹐正與日本國有出口銀行談判﹐申請融資。融資正變得越來越難﹐買車和租車者的償債能力也日漸下降。Toyota Financial表示﹐動蕩的美國信貸市場促使其尋求另外的資金來源。

日本其他汽車廠商可能也會很快採取行動。豐田宣佈上述消息前幾個 小時﹐日本財務省剛剛宣佈將從外匯儲備中向日本國際協力銀行(Japan Bank For International Cooperation)提供50億美元貸款﹐用於為公司提供幫助﹐從而結束了嚴密保護日本規模達1萬億美元的外匯儲備的歷史。

得到代價最低的融資來源當然是豐田所關心的﹐但宣佈這一消息的時機可能經過了精心設計。日本決策者以前曾鼓勵狀況較好的公司帶頭接受政府救助﹐借以澄清受助的“污名”﹐其它公司可能會因擔心這一點而拒絕救助。

穆迪(Moody's)認為﹐畢竟Toyota Financial對豐田在美國銷售汽車至關重要﹐因此它會從財大氣粗的母公司得到大量幫助。截至12月﹐豐田汽車擁有逾170億美元現金及現金等價物。

不過﹐這也表示豐田的問題不光是說服背負沉重債務的美國人購買汽車。隨著二手車價格節節下跌﹐豐田已經不得不沖減租約到期的汽車的價值。加大信貸損失撥備也影響了最近的利潤。

豐田並非唯一一個面臨這些挑戰的。但如果連這家因擁有充裕資金而被稱為“豐田銀行”的公司都要求助﹐對競爭對手來說也不是什麼好兆頭。

James Simms

本將使用部分外匯儲備來緩解一些擁有海外業務的日本公司所面臨融資難的局面。豐田汽車公司(Toyota Motor Corp.)將是受助企業之一。

豐田汽車金融服務子公司週二稱﹐正在向日本政府申請一筆貸款﹐以便在全球經濟危機之際充實公司資金。受全球經濟危機不斷加深導致海外信貸市場陷入停滯的影響﹐很多日本公司難以籌得外幣資金。

日本財務大臣與謝野馨(Kaoru Yosano)週二表示﹐日本可能會將巨額外匯儲備分流部分到半官方銀行中﹐以緩解3月31日財政年度結束之前企業融資緊張的局面。

與謝野馨週二在一個新聞發佈會上表示﹐政府計劃本月底前向日本國際協力銀行(Japan Bank For International Cooperation)提供50億美元貸款。

與謝野馨稱﹐考慮到一些希望獲得外匯資金的企業當前所面臨的困境﹐政府決定動用外匯儲備向日本國際協力銀行提供外匯資金﹐這是在該行難以從市場上籌集到足夠外匯情況下所採取的臨時性、特殊舉措。

日本政府正在採取一系列措施減輕市場不安情緒﹐並保證企業在財年結束之際擁有足夠資金﹐動用外匯儲備是其中的措施之一。

一位財務省官員稱﹐政府對日本國際協力銀行提供的貸款期限為5年。

豐田金融服務株式會社(Toyota Financial Services Corp.)一位發言人稱﹐由於金融市場仍不穩定﹐公司正在與日本國際協力銀行就貸款一事進行磋商﹐以實現公司融資方式的多樣化。

該發言人稱﹐公司尚未決定包括貸款數額在內的任何細節。

2009年3月25日 星期三

三頭六臂集 380-95

三頭六臂集

395

good will 雅意

好意, 同情; 親善; (店の)のれん, 得意先, (商売上の)信用. YA-I雅意 (嚴群譯 見其著之 亞里士多德之倫理學 )

394
The American Statistician

History Corner


no access
The Median Is the Message: Wilson and Hilfertys Experiments on the Law of Errors
The American Statistician Feb 2009, Vol. 63, No. 1: 20–25.
Abstract | PDF (372 KB) | PDF Plus (174 KB) | Permissions


393


商業媒體報導的多屬大企業
其實佔八九成的中小企業受到的全球風暴之影響更大得多
Falling Exports in Japan Hit Small Companies Hardest

392

它談到我們切身關係的事情 所以特予轉載

轉型正義週訊 No.43 (2009/3/25)
*本會針對調查局安康調查室棄置檔案舉行回應記者會
新聞稿:針對3/17報載,調查局安康調查室有大批白色恐怖時期政治犯與刑事犯檔案遭棄置一事,本會作為長期關心轉型正義的民間力量,除了對調查局如此對待台灣珍貴的歷史紀錄,表達我們的不滿與痛心之外,也要對官方應該如何處置這些政治檔案提出本會的看法與呼籲。
⊙調查局處理檔案:既不解密公開,也不妥善保存 威權時期的政治檔案,至今公開者多屬進入軍法審判程序之後的文書,前段「逮捕、偵訊、取供」的資料則付之闕如,讓後人在追索當年歷史真相時,始終少了最重要的一大塊拼圖。調查局第四處擁有的大批承接自「國防部保密局」的檔案,正好可用來彌補此一空白。長年以來,民間工作者與政治受難者團體一再呼籲相關檔案應該盡快公開解密,調查局卻始終藉「情治人員工作法」為擋箭牌,以機關首長的權限來核定此批檔案不予解密,也不移交給主管全國官方檔案的檔案局。 如果不對外公開,那麼調查局內部又是如何處理這些既兼具歷史性,又載滿個人隱私的檔案呢?從今日媒體披露的情況可知他們的輕率態度,不但儲存空間缺乏管理如同廢墟,大批個人資料與文件散置如同廢棄垃圾,實令所有關心台灣民主歷史者同感痛心。
⊙本會呼籲:馬總統應該盡快促成相關檔案解密 馬總統與法務部王清峰部長,向來重視民主與人權價值,由他們日前才促成陳文成命案、林宅血案重啟調查,可見其釐清歷史真相、追求轉型正義的決心,實令民間大為振奮。因此我們鄭重的呼籲馬總統,除了要求調查局嚴正看待此事之外,更應主動清查目前散落在各級軍警情治單位的政治檔案下落,促成這些檔案的解密與公開,同時制訂完善的使用規則,使保障個人隱私與追查歷史真相可以並進。 若我們認為台灣已是健全的民主國家,那麼我們就該相信行政機關、軍警情治單位、研究者與社會大眾,都能以成熟的態度,來看待過去曾經發生過的人權壓迫,並從中習得歷史教訓。政治檔案的解密與開放,正是這堂寶貴歷史課的基本教材,希望馬總統與王清峰部長,能正視民間的呼聲,做出回應。(對徵集政治檔案更完整的建議,請參考本會網站)

391
全世界所有政客總是修辭遠大於事實
因為美國等國家系統實在過去複雜
所以可以讓總統等要怎麼說就怎麼自圓其說

"The budget I submitted to Congress will build our economic recovery on a stronger foundation so that we don't face another crisis like this 10 or 20 years from now," he said. Obama focused much of his attention on the economy, adding that there are already signs of improvement but emphasizing numerous times that the American people need to be patient. "We will recover from this recession, but it will take time," Obama said.

390

所謂國家或民族品牌 哈哈 嘿嘿
你的國家大有為 你就只得認了
照樣歌頌共產黨的英明領導啦....

"一個民族品牌“保住”了,但品牌的創始人賠慘了。在商务部否決可口可樂收購匯源交易之後,匯源果汁股價兩天之內幾乎被打回原形,公司創始人朱新禮的身家缩水40多億港元,將近60%。商務部決定正確與否不在本文討論之列,筆者昨日已經說明,商務部至少從戰術上也就是否決的時機選擇上來說算不上謹慎。在此只想對那些高呼“保護民族品牌”的人問一聲:民族品牌應該這樣來保護嗎?匯源果汁16年來從無到有,從小到大,開創者朱新禮付出了多少心血,恐非外人所能想象。他曾對媒體說,16年他沒有休過一個星期天和一個春節。他對匯源果汁的感情,恐怕也沒有多少人比得上。...."


389

又見獎金心理學之妙/謬論

"在本文作者看來﹐徵收高額獎金稅的法案是個蠢主意﹐它可能讓人們失去工作動力﹐從而對經濟造成損害。"
hc看法
美國這新法不知是否違憲?
這只限定拿國家救難款的
再說 "沒高額獎金就不會拼命"說法沒根據!

388
上周的台大雕塑 已更新
BBC
展现煤矿工人遗梦的巨雕



雕塑模型
再过几周,这座20米高的雕塑将屹立在昔日萨顿庄园(Sutton Manor)煤矿遗留的矿渣堆上。







英格兰西北一个昔日煤矿的矿渣堆上修建的大型雕塑近日开工。建成后,这座20米高,展现一个少女闭眼梦思的头像将可从曼彻斯特(Manchester)与利物浦(Liverpool)之间的高速公路上清楚看到。

雕塑是2005年10月英国第四频道电视公司(Channel 4)发起的“大型艺术项目”(Big Art Project)的七个工程之一,宗旨是请著名艺术家与各地居民合作创作大型公共艺术作品,并由电视台把整个进程拍成电视节目。

公众参与

项目委员会筛选了上千公众提出的建议之后选中的地方之一,便是圣海伦斯(St Helens)这个昔日的煤矿城市。

其他地方还包括贝尔法斯特(Belfast)和谢菲尔德(Sheffield)。

圣海伦斯是昔日煤矿重镇,但矿井近20年前便全都关闭。参与讨论雕像初步创意的人除了市政部门代表,也有一组昔日矿工。

创意确定之后,他们又从12名候选艺术家中选定西班牙雕塑家豪梅•普伦萨(Jaume Plensa)着手实际设计。

普林萨是一位在伦敦、巴黎和芝加哥都有作品矗立的知名雕塑家,但这次他在设计之前和随后的过程中继续不断同老矿工和其他居民代表协商,以求真正反映他们的意念。

萨顿庄园煤矿大门
萨顿庄园煤矿100年打下两个竖井,曾是重要煤矿,1991年关闭。矿工说地下还有可开采40年的煤。

让人思考的境地

而在1984年英国煤矿工人的大罢工过去整整25年后,他们要这位艺术家去做的,就是展望一个光明的未来,并为将来的世世代代创作一块美丽的,让人思考的境地。

这尊巨型雕塑将用90块预先浇注加工的水泥板块累积而成,并在五月份完成。

自己曾做过煤矿工人的圣海伦斯市政委员会主席布莱恩•斯蓬塞(Brian Spencer)说,看着雕像在原来的矿渣堆上建起让他感慨万分。

“这个空前的项目让人们看到,只要大家齐心协力,希望和梦想不仅可以成真,而且整个过程都令人感慨万分。”


387
我讀某書中譯
它的副題最重要的一動詞 renewing 卻沒有翻譯出來
不過 沒人抗議




renew was found in the Cambridge Advanced Learner's Dictionary at the entries listed below.


386
我昨天1030買中山女中周的滷味 每盒30元
今天1530 買 每盒25元
是否今天天氣比較好

385
每當市場有變局 我們的Dell先生都說這是他們公司的良機
可是 經常可能看得到 吃不到
Michael S. Dell of Dell said on Tuesday that talk of I.B.M. possibly buying Sun Microsystems was providing an "enormous opportunity" to the world's No. 2 PC maker in the corporate server market.
Go to Article from Reuters via The New York Times»


384




YouTube遭中國政府當局屏蔽--會是草泥馬事件嗎





歌(Google Inc.)旗下YouTube遭中國政府當局屏蔽。與此同時﹐由於其部分內容惹惱了多個國家政府﹐這家視頻分享網站也還在與它們進行交涉。

383





100元過一個星期表示必須少買書 看電影 多到公園談戀愛或練習英文

BBC "星期一的《每日電訊報》上的一篇報道說,在經濟不景、金融危機的情況下,有數萬中國人節減開支,自願參加一項網上發起的一個星期花100人民幣度日的實驗。

報道說隨著經濟危機對人民生活的影響日益顯著,許多沿海城市包括像北京和上海這樣的大城市的白領職員都開始拋棄西方品牌,而改用比較便宜的中國產品。文章說現在已經有大約10多萬人參加了這個一個星期只花100元的挑戰活動。

文章說在這個活動在網上發起之初,響應的人並不多,但隨著危機的深化,越來越多的人想試一試,而且發起人還為那些能夠完成挑戰的人發現金作為獎勵,同時還鼓勵那些完成挑戰的人在網上寫日記講述他們成功的經歷。

報道說大多數的參與者是白領職員,而真正能夠做到的只有20%的人。根據那些成功人士的經驗,省錢的方式包括上班騎自行車,不吃肯德基和麥當勞,而改吃麵條和饅頭等。"




382
看一下交網圈 可以了解其"水平"
看看李敖先生最近的表現 就知道有多少前朝遺老在交流


381
http://newsletter.dw-world.de/re?l=ew0hp4I44va89pIh 南非政府拒绝给打算参加国际和平大会的达赖喇嘛入境签证,引起了争议和波澜。这次和平大会的组织者已经取消了大会。还有人发出了抵制2010年南非足球世界杯的呼声。但南非政府不为所动。
想一下這國家是以前台灣的邦交國
拿台灣的外交獻金時可以"簽字收到"的

台灣 南非 或許在某些方面是類似的 譬如說 拿人家的 手不軟

380

可怕的簡-繁體字眼的轉換 日立佳能共同生產LCD顯示器_ 中國投影網新聞 - - [ 轉為繁體網頁 ]資訊:日立佳能鬆下共同生產LCD顯示器- ... 近日,日立、佳能、松下已經簽署了一項共同合作協議,這三家公司將分擔發展、生產LCD液晶顯示器時的費用、負擔以及福利。 ...

現在比較有意思的是 co-production 之想法 這是逆 co-brand 之做法
既然 Panasonic 的東西可以賣給 Viewsonic 沒理由不可合作開發-生產

2009年3月24日 星期二

三頭六臂集 361-379

三頭六臂集



379
李嘉誠的3G困局
2009年03月25日07:24
在《福布斯》(Forbes)雜志本月早些時候公布的富豪排行榜上,香港“超人”李嘉誠蟬聯亞洲首富。本周我們就將看到其旗艦企業和記黃埔(Hutchison Whampoa)的年度業績。和記黃埔的業績通常是香港收益季節最重大的事件,李嘉誠這時候也會難得地公開露面。他因每每習慣挑戰人們的預期和成就具有轟動性的交易而被香港人稱為“超人”。

但此次全球金融危機可能將告訴人們,其實李嘉誠也只不過是個凡人。.....

投資者此前就曾犯過低估李嘉誠和和記黃埔的錯誤,但3G業務看來將成為“超人”李嘉誠面臨過的最大挑戰。


378

看到公車上有 "蘇格蘭皇家銀行(Royal Bank Of Scotland)正式在台...."的廣告
一般人不知道這家銀行的股票幾乎淪為水餃股否?

377

"......過去3個月中﹐美國汽車月銷量的下滑速度加快﹐2月份較上年同期減少了41%。研究公司IHS Global Insight預計﹐今年全球汽車產量將下滑18%﹐至5,600萬輛。

日 本汽車工業協會進一步下調了去年12月做出的預測。該組織說﹐在截至2010年3月的財年里﹐預計日本汽車銷量將下滑8%﹐至430萬輛。這將是自截至 1978年3月的財年以來的最低銷量﹐也是銷量連續第4年下滑。該組織估計﹐截至今年3月份的財年﹐日本汽車銷量總計將為470萬輛﹐下降12%。

日本汽車工業協會表示﹐由於通用汽車(General Motors Corp.)、福特汽車(Ford Motor Co.)、克萊斯勒(Chrysler LLC)以及4家日本卡車生產商將不參加東京汽車展﹐展期將從17天縮短為13天。這也顯示出了汽車業的問題。

日本汽車工業協會主席Satoshi Aoki說﹐這很可惜﹐不過我們正面臨著一場百年不遇、前所未有的危機。

今年1-3月份的這個季度﹐豐田汽車計劃把在日本的汽車產量削減54%。本田汽車和日產汽車則分別計劃削減38%和59%。

今年前兩個月﹐本田汽車將北美地區汽車產量削減了46%﹐而豐田汽車則表示日本以外地區的產量下降43%。

Yoshio Takahash"

Making a More Affordable Nano

Carmaker Tata Motors will team up with State Bank of India to make loans available even in remote villages, with buyers putting down $60. Promotion is heavy

376

看到TSMC 公司百餘位被資"譴"的員工走上台北街頭抗議公司
獨厚政治獻金 對於員工苛刻....
兩造的道理非外人所能了解
不過台積電公司的員工關係處理手腕頗粗糙

新聞局處理所謂范蘭欽案 類似顢頇

看看美國的財相 上周寒挨罵要下台
本周就被捧上天
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner formally unveiled the White House plan to clean out toxic assets from banks' balance sheets on Monday, and investors gave it the equivalent of a standing ovation.

375
wsj 阿爾卡特朗獲得聯通3G網絡鋪設合同
阿爾卡特朗訊週一宣佈﹐其在華旗艦子公司上海貝爾將為中國聯通在14個省市部署3G網絡﹐其中天津、保定、溫州、貴陽及桂林等城市的初期網絡部署預計將於今年5月完成。

注意 網路之後所有媒體的錯誤率都增高
上周看中國時報頭版 億餘 寫成"億余"
它每一版面都印有兩主編之大名 換句話說 這至少三人檢驗過的呢

374

最近沒家用ADSL 都利用 NTU的 CAPACITY
我到圖書資訊系的圖書館
看看他們的藏書 有時候也覺得有意思

譬如說 中文參考書架上很沒趣
今天在西書上 看到 The Order of Things等書 甚怪
再拿一本
The Interpretation of Cultures by Clifford Geertz
內有 "質性研究"課程指定參考書 至....僅供館內閱覽



我比較有趣的是數十來興起所謂"質性研究" 這算那門學問
因為傳統一向如此
最好的參考書可能是達爾文的大作


373
許久沒寫翻譯筆記

文字看久習慣之後即可慢慢變親切
"邦訳"日本說法 也會覺得很好啦

昨天讀管錐集 關於 亞里斯多得的引言
記得是第三冊 關於修辭學
類似 praise and counsel ( mean same thing)
錢先生翻譯為"誡與譽" 其實這 consel 應該是直話直說 所以是"毀譽 "或....


372
底下一篇取自中國時報 人間副刊
前天晚上它的主編楊澤博士和挪威孫森林咖啡店店主等

在明目書社談 沒有所謂的"誠品學"
介紹張愛玲的"走入事件世界之新小說.....
還有許多事 包括台灣不可能有(英美式)質報
據說某報系現在每月虧近憶 旗山財經報紙大稿置入式行銷

其中說現在年輕人不看副刊了 因為要錢
我說他們的有一德政是"人間回顧" 保留2月 這是次了不起的--紐約時報第一名

371
這是篇談台版出版"數量"的文章
應該記得第一名者生前發現他"翻譯"的司馬光史書--我投資買過
在CD-ROM上不過幾Mega容量

誰寫得最多?隱地  (20090324)

 還有寫得更多的作家,到底誰寫得最多?約略統計一下,前十名的作家依序為:

 柏楊,出版了一百九十九本書,他是寫得最多的作家。第二名是一匹大黑馬,誰也想不到他默默地寫了一百六十二本小說和一本散文,他的長篇小說《水月》和 《古樹下》可是大大有名,特別是《古樹下》為皇冠出版社賺進不少白花花的銀子,這本小說曾改編成廣播小說,受歡迎的程度有點像後來凌波、樂蒂主演的梁祝。 到底他是誰呢?本名李世偉,筆名畢珍,他是一位新聞工作者,曾在多家報社任職,還主編過中國時報「人間副刊」;林語堂先後出版過一百五十九種書,可算是出 書最多的第三位作家,但其中不少書是別人為他編的,真正他自己寫的當不足此數。第四名和第五名是一百五十種的李敖和一百三十七種的溫瑞安,第六名是一百一 十三種曾經以「菩提十書」暢銷一時的林清玄,第七名為高陽,他的著作共有一○五種。

 第八名至第十名分別為傅佩榮(九十六種)、吳淡如(九十四種)和苦苓(八十八種)。

 如果再往下排十一名以後,分別為劉墉(八十五種)、南宮搏(八十一種)、孟瑤(八十種)、朱羽(七十七種)、溫小平(七十六種)、胡品清(六十九種)、 心岱(六十六種)、郭良蕙(六十四種)、張放(六十四種)、瓊瑤(六十一種)和蕭蕭(六十一種)。此外超過五十種以上作品的至少還有無名氏、徐薏藍、趙雅 博、殷登國、楊小雲、玄小佛、姜穆、章君穀、余我和吳東權。

 兒童文學作家的產品亦極驚人,謝武彰從一九七五年與黃基博出版第一本 兒童詩集《春》之後,至今已出版一百五○種兒童文學各類讀本,子敏、雖以《小太陽》成名,但他的散文集只有十三種,而他以林良本名寫的兒童文學創作卻有一 百三十一種,合起來,他共有一百四十四種出版品。潘人本,小說作品只有四種,她的兒童文學創作量驚人,共有一百零八種,兩種合起來,她的出版數量排在第 三,共有一百一十二種。

 前述三十三位作家,已有十位過世,在世的二十三位,心岱和玄小佛幾乎都已停筆,吳淡如轉到電視台主持節 目,書寫亦呈停頓狀態,其餘幾位偶有作品發表。比起頂峰時期,大家都寫得少了。至於目前 面上寫得最多的一些青壯派,再過十年,誰寫得最多,誰獨領文壇風 騷,那可就又是一番歷史新頁了。(下)




370
陳寬仁老師讀了一本我多年前花250元買的書
作出質勝於快的決定

"1. "6/8 出版計畫"決定請延至明年底 2010
2. 讀「造化遊戲」頗有所感 寫作要作一點修改 "


369

這我兩三年前的另外一blog就報導過
如果能報導他們近一世紀的努力 那過程更是可歌可泣

日本威士忌封王 打敗蘇格蘭

  • 2009-03-24中國時報【林家群/綜合報導】

 ▲觀光客在英國蘇格蘭的威士忌酒廠參觀並品酒,日本的威士忌近年異軍突起。(美聯社)

 日本酒類產業發達,清酒與啤酒早已遠近馳名,據《彭博通訊社》報導,如今日本威士忌的製酒技術更迎頭趕上威士忌酒鄉英國蘇格蘭,去年一項酒類評鑑中,日本兩大酒廠生產的威士忌打敗了蘇格蘭品牌,震撼全球酒界,如今這場西洋與東洋的威士忌大戰已經開打了。

 在英國《威士忌雜誌》(Whisky Magazine)評鑑中,最佳單一純麥(single malt)品項由朝日啤酒集團旗下的Nikka公司生產的「余市」(Yoichi)廿年威士忌,打敗蘇格蘭群雄奪冠;在調和式威士忌(blended whisky)品項,日本三得利(Suntory)公司生產的「響」(Hibiki)獲全球第一。

   日本威士忌經銷商「威士忌E」執行長克羅爾(David Kroll)說:「這是蘇格蘭酒廠的警訊,日本公司正開始出口更多威士忌到各國。」

 由於九○年代稅制改革,讓日本威士忌極為昂貴,原本喝威士忌的人改喝紅酒或其他酒類,威士忌銷售量大跌,因此產量佔日本威士忌酒市場九成的Nikka與三得利,希望藉出口來彌補國內市場的衰退。

 日本威士忌為何能打敗蘇格蘭同業,很值得探討。

 「余市」純麥 創造出口商機

 Nikka位於北海道余市的酒廠廠長荒谷幸雄說:「公司創辦人竹鶴政孝選擇余市蓋廠,是因這裡的氣候與蘇格蘭類似,日夜溫濕度差距大以及靠近海洋,每個因素都影響酒的品質」。

 Nikka自九○年代起全力生產單一純麥威士忌,使用蘇格蘭的大麥、日本的酵母及來自余市鄰近山區的乾淨水源蒸餾,再用美國白樺木做成的酒桶裝酒熟成,讓它的威士忌聞起來有少許堅果、松露、香草的味道,嚐起來又有燻木或淡煙燻味。

 找到特色 三得利「響」叮噹

 三得利位於京都南方的山崎酒廠有八十六年歷史,是「響」威士忌產地,首席調酒師輿水精一說:「我們過去被視為正牌威士忌模仿者,現在狀況不同了」。調和式威士忌品牌如「約翰走路」或「Cutty Sark」,因其口味一致性,較單一純麥威士忌更受喜愛。

 山崎酒廠在二次大戰時以亞洲橡木桶來裝桶熟成,讓酒有濃郁特殊的古廟風味。《日本威士忌:事實、數據與風味》一書的作者巴克斯魯德 (Ulf Buxrud)說:「日本酒廠如想在海外多搶些威士忌市場,必須強調其特色,這些特色讓威士忌的香味光譜更開闊。老實說,日本人已不再只會模仿而已」。




368

參訪一家茶園
決定幫園主整理出版 一書
懂得生命與生活--這是我們的賓客留言
---敬邀連署:不要說再見 -- 守護台灣農村聲明

367
拜訪苗栗市的洪信佳醫師 利率他的 adsl
由於它已設定yahoo網 所以我蒐得

Taiwanese Deming Circle

2F, No88, Sec 3, Hsin-shen South Road, Taipei

Tél. (02) 2365-0127 Fax (02)2365-0128

Fondée en 1984 par le Dr. Han-Ching Chung, cette association organise chaque année un séminaire à l'université Tunghai. En 2008, l'invité était le Dr. William Scherkenbach.

我在 Simon的blog寫這是我第二次被稱為 Dr.ㄐ的 第一次是其大學CMU治喪委員會邀請我們這些有連絡的舊識參加



366

2009年是中国的政治敏感年,西藏起义五十周年和3-14事件一周年纪念日刚刚过去,中国政府又重新回到了收紧新闻政策的起点。前不久,有关部门与在北 京工作的外国驻华记者的中国雇员召开了恳谈会,并在会议上公布了名为《行为规范》的工作准则。其中要求中方雇员应向外国记者提供有利于中国形象的信息,杜 绝负面报道。

实际上,这部《行为规范》工作准则早在 今年2月份就已经出台了,但目前还只针对在北京驻外媒体工作的中方工作人员。规范中要求,不允许中方雇员进行独立采访报道。而对每一位为外国驻华记者提供 助理工作的中方雇员来说,这在入行前就已经是清楚明了的前提了,可在多数情况下,这些外国记者们的中方助理们还是要拿上机器单独出外采访。

何塞先生在上海就从事着这样一份工作,他的任务 是为外国驻华记者提供可采访的素材、预约采访对象和采访录音。而今后如果再出现助理们单独出外采访的情况就会被视为违反《行为规范》,何塞说,这样的情况 不能完全杜绝:“其实这样做的原因很容易理解。在很多工作中其实中方人员都是在做实质性的工作,但是你不能对其他人这么说,因为这个报道最后完成的时候不 会写上你的名字,但是报道内容中有很大一部分是跟我们分不开的。一方面中国的法律不允许,另外,其实外国记者自己更愿意说报道和工作都是他们自己来完成 的。所以,表面上看我们的工作都是辅助性的工作,而实际上呢?中方助理的工作是决定性的。”

目前,仅在北京和上海注册的境外媒体就多达上百 家。按惯例,在中国每一名驻外记者都配有一到两名中方助理。这些助理必须流利掌握该国语言或者具备出色的英语听写能力,这样更便于协助外国记者翻译采访录 音,其次,就是帮助他们快速阅读中国媒体的各大报纸。但是如果像《行为规范》中要求的,中方助理必须提供有利中国形象、文化和历史的信息和素材,那么今后 的工作将很难进行,何塞说:“明文规定是明文规定,实际操作是实际操作,所以这个规定出台之后,它会不会改变现实中的工作状况?我觉得,最重要的还要看当 局是不是真的会出台什么处罚规定,我是说,如果有人违反了这个规定,而且是在很敏感的时期,犯了很明显的错误之后是不是就会有相关的惩罚情况出现。”

何塞所说的敏感时期的明显错误指的是,关于西藏、台湾、人权等中国政府不愿看到的新闻报道。但恰恰是这些题材才是境外媒体感兴趣的。三月份过后,外国驻华记者们自然将目光投向了即将到来的六·四纪念日和建国六十周年的纪念活动。

如果真的出台处罚制度,或许才是对外国记者中方 雇员们行为的真正约束。身在上海的何塞表示,就拿经济中心上海和政治中心北京来说,中国政府会根据媒体报道的题材和该媒体的影响力区分对待。但不管怎么 说,《行为规范》的出台都是对中国承诺的开放新闻政策的一个挑战。何塞说:“很多在奥运会之前,中国政府迫不得已作出的调整:比如说改善自我形象也好,说 在奥运期间要融入国际主流文化也好,不管是什么样的原因,奥运会期间出台的一些规定,人们那时候大概就知道那些只是暂时的而已。但是奥运会之后中国政府就 少了很多这方面的顾虑。例如,从三月份当局为防范西藏骚乱一周年出现新情况所采取的措施中都可以看出,可以说中国又回到了以自我为中心的新闻政策中去。”

记者:严严

责编:叶宣




365

ADSL寬頻上網的電路費,4月1日起將全面降價,平均降幅5.35,估計全台有330萬用戶受惠,此外,行動電話預付卡與月租費最高資費,也同步降價百分之4.88,受惠用戶數百萬。
Hinet is quite beuraucratic.

boastful form Vibo:"電信公司今年鎖定3G行動上網、全力衝刺,威寶電信總經理張豐雄昨(17)日表示,3G行動上網將在3年內,挖走中華電200萬ADSL用戶。對此,身為國內ADSL龍頭的中華電信昨日回應表示,以國內ADSL用戶今年還會淨增10萬戶來看,3G用戶要超越ADSL,是不可能的事。 ... 威寶:3G行動上網3年內搶走半數ADSL用戶 中央日報"


364

世衛專家﹕未聞包裝GMP
2009-03-21

【明報專訊】近日本港的藥業事故一發不可收拾,源輝貿易的事件,更揭發原來「包裝程序GMP」同樣存在監管漏洞。世界衛生組織的 GMP(Good Manufacturing Practice,良好藥品生產規範)專家指出,從未聽聞有「包裝程序」的GMP,應該另有一個叫GDP的準則,(即Good Distribution Practice﹚,專責控制包裝及分銷程序。

商台節目《左右大局》昨日播出世衛專責處理GMP的教授Dr Umit的訪問,他對香港把GMP分作「包裝程序」及「生產程序」感到奇怪。他說:「GMP本身定義是Manufacturing(生產),當中『生產』 一字已說明有關生產程序;而有關包裝及分銷步驟的一套準則,應該叫GDP。」

按 衛生署提供的資料,本港共25間藥廠中,只有一間未達全面GMP的要求,只獲得「包裝程序GMP」。本報昨日向衛生署查詢會否考慮引入GDP的定義,以便 與世衛標準接軌,衛生署的回應是,未達GMP要求的藥廠只能獲發「包裝程序GMP」,又強調世界其他地方亦有類似做法。


363
Evaluation & Management
評價與管理 (季刊)


中國科學評價研究中心
中國科學與科技政策研究會
武漢大學教育科學院
主辦

362

我個人當天另外有他事
所以提另外一邊緣的可能 希望多少有點參考價值

我現在在台大圖書館系的圖書館發此信
我在想 CSQ 是怎樣的一專業 它與圖書館這專業的異同

昨天與陳寬仁老師談他的回憶錄
以及CSQ先前出的品管史
和過去之月刊

或許應選擇許多"過時的東西成為社會的 公共財

參考臺灣百年圖書館史數位圖書館先導計畫: 圖書館人物誌(一) 首頁 · 各類文件 · 書目資料 圖書館人物誌(一). 大事記 · 各類圖書館 · 圖書資訊學教育 · 圖書館人物 · 圖書館建築 · 各類文件 · 管理者登入. 圖書館人物誌(一) ...

361
心裡默默畫上台灣大學校園內的所有流蘇之分布圖
因為三月除了是聞名的杜鵑花季 還有許多
我看過多少回 華蓋滿株

所見所文無非是島國島民之小事

讀報說某政治人給鞭炮炸傷 這還是無法讓風俗改變

"原本,故宮南院計畫雖仍有諸多值得討論之處,但至少是不錯的開始,有助於縮短城鄉/南北文化資源分配不均。沒想到台北的故宮院長認為南部鄉親的水準不夠,需要的不是像故宮的展覽館,而是更為符合大眾需求的花卉博物館。我不知道周功鑫院長的認知為何和廣大嘉義鄉親不同。我們南部人雖然窮,但也有骨氣,不是台北不要的丟給我們,我們就會乖乖的磕頭謝恩。懇切的希望住在台北且在上還擁有豪宅的故宮院長能夠聽聽南部嘉義鄉親的心聲,不要隨便搪塞一個花卉博物館給我們。"王乾任

三頭六臂集 340-352

三頭六臂集




352
美國之可愛在以下 雙方
US lawmakers vote for bonus tax

The US House of Representatives approves a 90% tax on bonuses from bailed-out firms, in a vote hailed by President Obama.

最有意思的是做 眾人大罵的公司據法力爭

A.I.G. Sues U.S. for Return of $306 Million in Tax Payments

While the American International Group comes under fire from Congress over executive bonuses, it is quietly fighting the federal government for the return of $306 million in tax payments, some related to deals that were conducted through offshore tax havens.


351

David 問" 有一個名詞翻譯 knowledge-based 國立編譯館翻作 知識文本的....
讀起來有些繞口 不知道也沒有較好的說法?"
答: 知識經濟(knowledge-based Economy).
knowledge-based
  • 知識データベースに基づく、知識{ちしき}ベースの、知識集約型{ちしき しゅうやく がた}の、知識基盤{ちしき きばん}の、知識本位{ちしき ほんい}の◆【略】K-based
david

" Bralla 談 DFM 時說
DFM is a Knowledge-based technique that works effectively in improving...
應該翻譯為
DFM 乃一以知識為基礎之技術... ??"

hc答:
應該可以
(根據/利用特定資料庫)

當然 資訊業談 knowledge-based的
遠遠早於下面這篇
Presentation by Dr. Peter Drucker
International Knowledge Management Summit
11 June 1998
Dr. Peter Drucker began by describing himself as a management insultant
- “You have to get their attention before you can do anything else, and the best
way to do that is to be a little bit insulting.” And so it began! A wonderful almost
two hours of listening to one of the most impactful thinkers, writers, and
philosophers on organizational behaviors, management and group performance
in the 20th century. It was a genuine pleasure and honor to hear and interact with
him in person. At age 88, he conveys his experience and wisdom by telling
stories that wonderfully illustrate the learnings of a lifetime.

Those of you who have read Drucker will no doubt recognize familiar
themes from his writings. These notes are no substitute for reading the original.
But for those of you who are intrigued but have not read his work, I urge you to
do so. He is the most profound thinker in management and business.
Drucker communicates through telling stories. He often starts with a
rhetorical question:

Q: Who were the first executives, and perhaps the greatest executives of all
time?
A: The builders of the great pyramids. The projects were huge, even by modern
standards. They certainly were vaster than any project undertaken before the
mid-1800’s. Yet these men - and we presume they were men - organized the
collective work of thousands of other men, planned, arranged for materials, and
did all of the things big corporations do today. But the knowledge to do this was
in just a few men - the rest were organized to contribute their physical labor, and
that physical labor has changed very little over the years.
Thus, people who know how to manage have existed for centuries. Yet,
now society has a need for managers in greater numbers than it did in the past
and their skills are essential. This is the change from the past – that we need
such greater numbers.
But now we have many more people doing knowledge and service work.
And what do we know about managing knowledge workers? We know that there
are three topics: the knowledge worker, knowledge itself, and the resources and
tools for knowledge worker. All three must be heeded. However, Dr. Drucker
decided not to discuss resources and tools. First he addressed managing the
knowledge worker, whom he characterized as both “dismally unproductive” and
volunteers. Secondly, he said, we know that they are not employees, but
volunteers, even though they are paid for what they do.
Until recently, society ran on muscle power or skilled labor. In 1880
Frederick Taylor looked at manual work, and made great improvements in its
productivity. But even Taylor looked at the task being done, and asked “What is
the one best way to do this task/” He never asked if the task itself was
necessary.
Previously, knowledge was an ornament. Even up to World War II,
almost all work was manual or skilled labor. What we did in WWII, out of
necessity, was through management and training we learned to enable many
people to do what in the past only a few people had been able to do - produce
high quality optics, make machine parts, build complex machines. We did this
through discipline, through study and conscientious attention to process. This
efforts had enormous success, resulting in an improvement in productivity of
about three and a half per cent, which is a 50-fold increase over a century.
However, all manual and skilled work is programmed by the task. How
should the task itself be done? But that may not be the right question. In
contrast, knowledge work is not programmed by the task. Knowledge work is
driven by the results. . The first question must be: “What is the task?”
The major cause of dismal productivity is that we have knowledge workers
doing work that we did not hire them to do, and which probably does not need to
be done at all. Productivity of the knowledge worker begins with asking: “What
is the task? What is the job?” Even today, we are too quick to ask how to do the
task better, and not consider whether it can be eliminated altogether. Only the
knowledge worker himself can answer that, but all too often his job consists of
non-essentials.
For example:
· Salespeople today sell two-thirds of what they sold in 1929, adjusted for
inflation
· Nurses spend 70-75% of their time shuffling papers
· Engineers spend time writing and rewriting reports - no one applied to
engineering school because he wanted to write reports. No one was
admitted to engineering school because she was a good report writer.
Eliminating non-essential work is the key to the productivity of the
knowledge worker. This is the severe limitation of classical TQM, in that it made
perfect work that should never be done at all. (Drucker was particularly direct
about Deming on this point, but allowed that Juran was more flexible.)
As no two knowledge workers have the same job, each one must define
their own job: What should we in this organization hold you accountable for?
What contributions and results should you be accountable for over the next 15
months?
This process is iterative, however. The first attempts to do this will not be
right, but they will allow us to learn. The nurse will tell you, for example, that
while arranging flowers for a patient is not a nursing task, it is something she or
he (40% of nursing students today are men) should do because nonprofessional
contact with patients is necessary to build the patient relationship
that is necessary for good nursing care. And what is the nurse being paid for?
Patient care! Not housekeeping, paperwork, or doctor care!
The second responsibility of the knowledge worker is to educate us.
Every knowledge worker must first be a teacher, creating a wider understanding
of his or her knowledge. It is their job to describe to the organization the power
and limitations of their area of expertise. The knowledge worker must be clear
about what people should know about their area, especially what they can and
cannot produce. Ultimately, becoming a learning organization requires first
becoming a teaching organization.
Unlike manual or skilled laborers, knowledge workers are paid to know
something we don’t. You have the knowledge, we don’t. In the old labor and skill
model in organizations, managers had held most of the jobs of the people they
supervised. They came up the ladder, jobs changed slowly, the people at the top
knew every job in the plant. They were in a position, through their experiences to
specify the information and knowledge needs for employees.
Today no two career paths are the same, no two experience profiles are
the same. Knowledge workers cannot assume their managers know what they
do. Thus, it is imperative that the knowledge worker educate his associates as to
what his job and knowledge are.
Lastly, the knowledge worker must define his or her information needs. In
the past this was a management task, because information was scarce. Today,
information is becoming a commodity, and the knowledge worker will have to
learn and answer the question “What information do you need to do your job?”
The question usually has not been asked - and whatever you answer, without
testing will be wrong - never right the first time.
The nature of knowledge is that it makes itself obsolete. On the other hand, skills
change very slowly. A stone cutter from the middle ages would recognize and be
able to use the tools used today. Under these conditions, it was reasonable to
believe that when an apprentice finished training at the age of 16 or 18, he had
learned most of what he needed to know about his skill for the rest of his life.
How do you manage change in knowledge work? By organized abandonment -
by getting rid of yesterday. New ideas need good people who must be pulled off
of yesterday/s tasks. There is nothing more futile than trying to keep a boat from
sinking. Managers must plan for organized abandonment, and manage change.
Get rid of yesterday; move onto the new. The new always requires able people,
who take change for granted and see it as an opportunity.
In knowledge work, the knowledge worker now owns the means of production.
They are mobile, and can work anywhere. They keep their resumes in their
bottom drawer. Consequently, they must be managed as volunteers, not as
employees. Only the unskilled need the employer more than the employer needs
them.
Managing volunteers is an American specialty - no other country has a tradition
of volunteerism like America. What are some of the things that make people
volunteer?
I see results.
I know what I am doing.
I know the objectives.
I know why I am here.
I have responsibility.
I set the goals.
They expect me to help tell them what to do, to help set direction.
So, what does this teach us about managing knowledge workers? The job of
management is to make them effective. There are a number of ways to do this:
Make demands on knowledge workers, Hold them accountable.
Give them responsibility.
Put in stretch goals they can be proud of achieving.
Make sure they have training and education.
Place people so that they are productive.
Give them achievement so that they develop standards.
Ensure they have rewards and recognition.
Managers must change people’s behavior through appropriate rewards
and recognition. The most potent form is peer recognition. However, he
cautioned not to try to change everyone at once: “Don’t’ try to convert all of the
heathens at once. “
When setting stretch goals, knowledge workers must be involved in
setting their own standards for reaching those goals. Perhaps a way to start is
by accessing the requirement and then reviewing what contribution the
knowledge worker can make.
The key to productivity is to abandon work that does not need to be done.
To make Organized abandonment systematic, he suggested a policy of
reviewing all products, processes, and services every three years, asking the
questions” “If we were not already in this business, or performing this activity,
and knowing what we know, would we enter in to it now?” If the answer is “No”,
then, take action to stop it now - Do Not Study It! Near successes can hinder
innovation and are dangerous. They encourages continuing what should be
abandoned. Organized Abandonment must be built in to your business.
The ultimate test of management is succession. Great leaders are too
often followed by collapse of the business, because succession is too often
ignored. Too often, leaders pick their successors, and they tend to pick carbon
copies of themselves, and carbon copies are always weak. Two institutions - the
Church and the Military - have endured in part because they do not allow their
leaders to select their successors.
On Mentoring: A mentor should ask two questions about their charge:
· What are her strengths?
· What are her bad habits, weaknesses?
The mentor’s first job is to place the person where her strengths will produce
results. It is the mentor’s job to make them effective, while also helping them
learn to overcome bad habits.
The “Death of Hierarchy” is nonsense! Someone must be in charge, have clear
authority. The issue is not “leadership” in the abstract, but “leadership for what
purpose?” Great charismatic leaders can spread tragedy. On the other hand,
Harry Truman had the “leadership and charisma of a dead fish”- yet he was an
effective executive.
It’s not about Dash, but Do!
In a small session following his Keynote, Professor Drucker responded to more
questions.
His advice to a would-be CKO for deciding how to engage his organization:
Figure out what the objective needs are of the organization. Who is the customer
of your services, and what do they consider value? This is not the same as
asking for the job description - the “job” is meaningless.
Assess what the organization will be most receptive for, and consider that as an
entry point. You need to know what works in your organization. The Navy, for
example, would not accept what works for the Air Force. You will not change
personalities; work with them.
On managing knowledge workers as volunteers:
Three critical areas -
· Results - “Box Office” - They must be able to produce
· Manners - The lubricating oil of the organization. Moving bodies under
pressure creates friction, but you can function as long as you can interact.
Don’t allow bad manners, and don’t allow people to confuse “freedom” with
abandoning manners.
· Responsibility. Demand they take responsibility for the expectations others
have of them. Start with commitments to your boss, then your subordinates.
Then be clear about what you need from them. Remember, we do not know
what others do and need, and they do not know what we do and need.
Begin your examination of the business from outside. Get out! See how things
work, really. Know your core competencies, look at the environment, and look for
gaps that your core competencies can address. Don’t start with your products!
You will not see anything new, you will miss opportunities.


350

中國近十年一直有龍象之爭的說法
那時是一致爭歐美市場
現在
全球經濟危機考驗中印關係
2009年03月20日10:54

當時英國學者提出一問題
長遠而言
那一國會較強
主張印度的說 他們的語文數學等都有深入的基礎 所以...

349
WSJ"由於全球經濟形勢日益惡化﹐世界銀行週三將中國今年的經濟增速預期降至6.5%﹐並就通貨緊縮風險發出警告。"

且看中國派駐的林毅夫-- 所謂首席經濟學家--的信誓旦旦 中國一定強 一定保八

這國可稱為三八之國 他們現在發起拒看央視等 --中国媒体人再次呼吁抵制官方宣传机构

348
《天主教英漢袖珍辭典》由主徒會恒毅月刊社出版

exercise, spiritual(1) 靈修功夫;熱心神工;神業。(2) 退省;避靜;神操。


想起去年底 Peter 送的書


"
聖依納爵 神操" (The Spiritual Excercises of St. Ignatitus) 台北:光啟文化事業 1978/2003 三版

神修三階段
煉路 明路 合路
始修者 進修者 成全者

如此 "戴明修煉"似乎應改成"戴明煉修"

***
me: 剛剛寫神操 deming圈
Sent at 10:14 AM on Friday
PeterHsiung: 鍾老師, 平安,昨天剛從神州返家, 計九天,遊歷了西安洛陽開封古城, 也目睹龍門雲岡石窟白居易故居亦在其中, 崋清池上李楊愛情故事,長恨歌迴盪其間, 秦王兵馬俑就在眼前, 並留一壺黃河之水, 人已回, 神未歸, 神操或助神歸


347

美國是一很複雜的國家

由於紐約時報說總統夫人要在白宮開菜園

Obamas to Plant White House Vegetable Garden

我們才知道美國竟然有百萬社區園

The country’s one million community gardens, she said, can also play an important role for urban dwellers who have no backyards.

But, sitting in her office in the East Wing, Mrs. Obama stressed that she doesn’t want people to feel guilty if they don’t have the time to have a garden: there are still many small changes they can make.

“You can begin in your own cupboard by eliminating processed food, trying to cook a meal a little more often, trying to incorporate more fruits and vegetables,” she said.



346
許烺光( Francis L. K. Hsu, 1975)『家元:日本的真髓』 (IEMOTO: The Heart of Japan) 于嘉雲譯,台北:南天,1990 いえもと いへ― 0 【家元】

武道や芸道で、その流派の正統としての権威をもち、その技芸を守り継承する家。また、その身分や、その人。室町時代におこり 江戸時代に発達した。宗家。
「―制度」

「有幾個理由把家元當作日本最重要與最典型的次級團體。 …….第三,這是關鍵,家元無論大小都不只是一個組織。它代表了一種生活方式,是個日本男女在其中看自己以及看周遭世界如何組織起來的一個結構,是解決問題之鑰,而且是如何對付內憂外患的藍圖 …..我們認為家元型的人類關係是 ……尤其是第二次世界大戰後成功的基礎。因此,本分析的題目叫作『家元:日本的真髓』。 …….」 (p. xviii) 「 …..其精神表現在老與少,前期生(前輩)與後期生,上司與部屬間那全包性及近乎打不破的發號司令 -服從,施助- 倚賴的關係上非常明顯。…..」( 『家元:日本的真髓』,p.136)

應用
日本公司是由許多自主管理的小團體(如品管圈)所組織成的結構,參考渡辺 孝雄( Takao Watanabe)『和英対照 日本的経営の変貌』(Demystifying Japanese Management) 東京:学生社,1987 出版,pp.50-1


品質嚴謹 「品質嚴謹」說法之一例,參見 許烺光(Francis L. K. Hsu, 1975 )『家元:日本的真髓』(IEMOTO: The Heart of Japan) 于嘉雲譯,台北:南天,1990 ,p.vi


【嚴謹】 教育部國語辭典之解釋 : 嚴肅謹慎。宋˙歐陽修˙尚書工部郎中歐陽公墓誌銘:君諱載,字則之,性方直嚴謹。 嚴密周延。西遊記˙第十回:博奕之道,貴乎嚴謹。 嚴格。京本通俗小說˙志誠張主管:使不得。第一,家中母親嚴謹;第二,道不得瓜田不納履,李下不整冠。要來張勝家中,斷然使不得! 整齊。兒女英雄傳˙第二十四回:姑娘看了這地方,真個收拾得乾淨嚴謹,心下甚喜。



345

明目老闆賣書之餘
也會用"漢方"作肥皂和齒粉 來賣
我說 應該請她女兒設計禮盒
這樣比較能進入"送者大方"之市場

我提醒他必須參考 body shop 草創時期之許多做法


在所有文人中 我最佩服林語堂先生的 "設計中文打字機"
以及梁宗岱先生的研究漢方

344
現在似乎很不流行手帕
前天晚餐在師大旁的一家晚餐
飯後我掏出手帕
"舉座"震驚


343

昨天在紐約時報的網路頭條新聞 Natasha Richardson, 45, Stage and Film Star, Dies
我們婉惜這樣的戲劇天才怪才 充滿生命之激情的才女 這樣不小心就告別人生舞台

AFP/Getty Images/Andrew H. Walker 【3月19日 AFP】カナダのスキー場で転倒し、頭部に重傷を負って入院していた英国出身の女優ナターシャ・リチャードソン(Natasha Richardson)さん(45)が死去した。夫で俳優のリーアム・ニーソン(Liam Neeson)さん(56)の広報 ...

Could a Helmet Have Saved Natasha Richardson?

Natasha Richardson
Natasha Richardson
Andrew Crowley / Telegraph UK / Zuma

There is still more speculation than information surrounding actress Natasha Richardson's fateful ski accident. Part of the confusion is the very nature of the accident — an improbable injury, little more than a head bump on a bunny slope, that has felled an otherwise healthy 45-year-old woman. It has also left onlookers wondering not just what happened to Richardson, but whether a helmet could have prevented it.

The details of Richardson's accident are sketchy, but what is known sounded benign — at first. She was taking a lesson on a beginner slope at the Mont Tremblant ski resort north of Montreal, with an instructor but without a helmet. She fell at the end of the lesson and struck her head, but was alert and conversational afterward and did not complain of any ill effects. An hour later, in her hotel room, she developed a severe headache. The next day, she was flown to Lenox Hill Hospital in New York City in critical condition, where she died on Wednesday. (See pictures of Natasha Richardson's life.)

Richardson's family and doctors had released no information regarding her condition, prior to her death. But it appears that Richardson was the victim of an unfortunate collision of biology and physics — a collision that is becoming scarily common in the worlds of athletics and organized sports. The human body is a sturdy one, but only up to a point, able to withstand collisions of about 15 m.p.h., which is about as fast as an average person can run. The skull is designed to be especially rugged — the permanent home and helmet for the brain — but even it can't take a much more serious hit. The problem is that over the centuries, we've developed all manner of ways to exceed a mere 15 m.p.h. creep. (Read a TIME cover story on the brain.)

One of the most common collision-related head injuries is a concussion, which occurs when the head moves at high speed and stops suddenly as it strikes a hard object. The brain, which is snug but not completely stationary inside the head, may continue moving, colliding with the inside of the skull. This leads to swelling or bruising or — much worse — bleeding. A brain-bleed is immediately life-threatening, but swelling is less so and may not even be evident for a little while, which is what appears to have happened in Richardson's case.

"In organized sports," says Jasper Shealy, a professor emeritus at the Rochester Institute of Technology and a sports-injury expert who has published more than 100 papers on the subject, "the practice had been for players with a head injury to sit on the bench for a little while and, once they felt better, to go back in."

That's a mistake — and not only because it takes more than a few minutes to know how serious the injury is. An initial concussion, neurologists are now learning, can make a second concussion more likely, and the second injury, in turn, increases the risk of subsequent ones over the years. That's precisely the reason some NFL players become known as more concussion-prone than others. Worse, the danger is cumulative: later concussions may become not just more likely, but also more serious. "A sequence of mild events — even just two or more — can equal one big hit," Shealy says. That may have been what happened in Richardson's case, though no one has said publicly if she had any other head injuries in her past.

The fact that Richardson was not wearing a helmet may or may not have made a difference in the gravity of her injury. If skiers are moving slowly — say 10 m.p.h. or slower — and they fall on soft snow, they're probably not going to be hurt severely, whether they're wearing a helmet or not. If they're moving faster than 15 or 20 m.p.h. and strike ice, hard-packed snow or another solid object with the head, they're likely to suffer severe injury, and again the presence of a helmet may not make much difference. It's in the middle area — at speeds that are neither very slow nor very fast — that a helmet can play the biggest role. The trick, of course, is that you never know when you're going to be in that gray zone, since even slow beginner skiers can lose control and speed up, and high-speed skiers have to slow down eventually. (See pictures of skiing.)

Physics makes things trickier still, causing different parts of the body to move at different speeds. Your skis or snowboard may be sliding along at a slow 10 m.p.h., but if you catch a tip or edge on something stationary, the rest of you plunges forward and accelerates. "The body acts as an inverted pendulum, so the upper body moves much faster than the lower body," says Shealy.

Once you do fall and hit, the brain can do much more than just bump the inside of the skull. "You can have stretching of cortical connections or stretching of blood vessels, and that can lead to bleeding," Shealy says. "You can also have linear or rotational acceleration [of the brain]. There's a lot that can go wrong in there."

Even some experts acknowledge that helmets are no panacea, and not only because they become less effective at higher speeds. Skiers argue that they reduce peripheral vision and also provide a false sense of security that encourages speeding. Those claims may well have some truth, but seat belts too may create a false sense of security, yet few people argue the wisdom of wearing them. Helmets may not provide the same level of protection as a seat belt, but in some cases, even inconsistent protection may make all the difference.

See pictures of Natasha Richardson's life.

Read "The Year in Medicine 2008: From A to Z."



342

一個多月前 我跟簡英哲夫婦說
Philips Taiwan 竹北廠的品管部稱為 Quality Service 部門
這稱呼是我在業界發現的單例
它是挺了不起的"大部門"--在那1970s
簡太太說你當時說不並看過我寫的檢驗規格
簡博士說 他們的品管做得遠比一般的公司確實
一般大公司 都是將品管部當顧客來訪的公關

我昨晚還跟明目書店的老闆說另外一位那兒的怪才
他自修法文梵文都有成績


"廣東化肥生產企業自頒食品品質安全標誌"QS"證
中國經濟網 - Beijing,China
這引起了執法人員的警覺,因為QS標誌含義是“品質安全”,但磷酸二銨實際上並不在國家許可管理目錄內。 經過調查,企業管理人員承認,他們是故意使用印有QS標誌字樣的包裝袋,擴大宣傳效果,使消費者認為這是品質信得過的產品,以提高市場銷量。該企業的造假行為已經涉嫌 ..."


341

早上走過一家餐廳 大書"早餐暫時停止供應...." 我對這沒興趣
只是懷念十年前他們門口一棵極其漂亮挺拔的榕樹 被砍掉了
那時 在風雨中 我從窗口 望出 它搖曳生姿 跟我獻我一陣
後來 咖啡店的租客利用一年 不知怎的 決定砍伐它
而我的窗 也為十幾層樓高的真理堂所阻斷視線
真是 不見不思念

我們的園內有兩棵大樹
對面的管理員發神經病
說裁掉樹身 讓它發幼枝葉 最好
我们堅持這邊的 不准這樣

他們請工人 --反正契約工 沒事做--去砍
隔年 真的長出些新綠
再一年 已成枯木
它對面 我們這棵
應該很無奈 很寂寞

340

現在的勵志書 又是必勝 (說不定自日本) 又是成功


成就功業。三國演義˙第一一四回:「公志若堅,必能成功。」
收穫、成效。左傳˙襄公四年:「邊鄙不聳,民狎其野,穡人成功。」國語˙吳語:「狐埋之而狐搰之,是以無成功。」
答應、允許。文明小史˙第五回:「快算一算,開篇帳給我,我去問他討,少我一個也不成功。」

穡 (讀 色)


成熟可收割的穀物。晉書˙卷五十二˙阮种傳:「如農者之殖磽野,旱年之望豐。」

收割穀物。詩經˙魏風˙伐檀:「不稼不,胡取禾三百廛兮?」

耕種。漢˙桓寬˙鹽鐵論˙錯弊:「古之仕者不,田者不漁。」

愛惜﹑節儉。左傳˙昭公元年:「大國省而用之,其何實非命。」


ひっしょう ―しよう 【必勝】/ ―せふ 【必捷】

  • 必ず勝つこと。
    • 「―の信念」
    • 「―を期する」


  • ◆アクセント : ひっしょう

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