「華人戴明學院」是戴明哲學的學習共同體 ,致力於淵博型智識系統的研究、推廣和運用。 The purpose of this blog is to advance the ideas and ideals of W. Edwards Deming.

2008年10月28日 星期二

Scherkenbach 引 Godel, Escher, Bach 仏"指揮學" 電腦模擬兩實驗

哥德爾艾舍爾、巴赫--集異璧之大成,[美]侯世達著郭維達等譯, 北京商務,1996
集異璧-GEB,是數學家哥德爾、版畫家艾舍爾、音樂家巴赫三個名字的字首。

哥德爾、艾舍爾、巴赫-集異璧之大成
作者:侯世達  譯者:郭維德
出版者:商務印書館
   集異璧-GEB,是數學家哥德爾、版畫家艾舍爾、音樂家巴赫三個名字的字首。本書是在英語世界中有極高評價的科普著作。曾獲得普力策文學獎。它通過對哥 德爾的數理邏輯,艾舍爾的版畫和巴赫的音樂三者的綜合闡述,引人入勝的介紹了數理邏輯學、可計算理論、人工智能學、語言學、遺傳學、音樂、繪畫的理論等方 面,構思精巧,含義深刻,視野廣闊,富於哲學韻味。本書中譯本前後費時十餘年,譯者都是數學和哲學的專家,還得到原作者的直接參與,譯文嚴謹通達,特別是 在原作者的幫助下,把西方的文化典故和說法,儘可能轉換為中國文化的典故和說法,使這本譯本甚至可看做是一部新的創作,也是中外翻譯史上的一個創舉。


2. 序文の引用:
"Trip-let" is the name which I have given to blocks shaped in such a way that their shadows in three orthogonal directions are three different letters ... "
3. 序文の引用:
"Three Spheres LL, by M. C. Escher. 258 Part Il: The "EGB" trip-let casting its three orthogonal shadows 54. Mbius Strip LL, by M. C. Escher ... "


Godel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid









四苦八苦

出典: フリー百科事典『ウィキペディア(Wikipedia)』

四苦八苦(しくはっく)とは、仏教における苦しみの分類。

根本的な苦しみを四苦とし、四苦に加え、

  • 愛別離苦(あいべつりく) - 愛するものと分かれなければならない苦しみ
  • 怨憎会苦(おんぞうえく) - 憎んでいる対象に出会う苦しみ
  • 求不得苦(ぐふとくく) - 欲しいものが得られない苦しみ
  • 五蘊盛苦(ごうんじょうく) - 心身の機能が活発なため起こる苦しみ

の四つを加えて八苦という。

人間の煩悩が108有るといわれるのも、この世が苦しみで満ちているから、という説もある。四九で36、八九で72、合せて108になるという。

[編集] 関連項目




WWS在10月18日的演講談到系統觀時 推薦一門課程叫"指揮學"(CONDUCTING)--- 這字眼有意思 因為它既指經營管理 又可用在音樂領域

Meaning #1: the way of administering a business

Meaning #2: the direction of an orchestra or choir

WWS問大家東海是否有這學程 當時大家都不答 我去音樂系網站查一下 本學期有三門


高級合唱指揮 莊舜旭 #25
合唱指揮 莊舜旭 #25 7-8
器樂指揮 鍾安妮 演奏廳

相關字眼 Cheironomy /Chironomy

-----


David
兩封沒立即回
主要是
這玩藝許久之前已知
我認為這跟管制圖和DOE等一樣
其實電腦不能 幫助/取代 真正的了解
甚至於可說 它們本身是否有問題也無從得知
(上回WWS播 Deming的 red beads 也很驚訝原始版本如此 "笨拙")
----
It has been said that man is a rational animal. All my life I have been searching for evidence which could support this. - Bertrand Russell
WWS 說不定喜歡羅素這句話




魔鏡-埃舍爾的不可能世界
作者:布魯諾‧恩斯特  譯者:田松、王蓓
出版者:上海科技教育出版社
   埃舍爾是"無法歸類"的藝術家。他認為,藝術家追求的是美,而他追求的"首先是驚奇"。所以他有一句名言:"驚奇是大地之鹽"。不僅是要讓讀者看他的作 品時感到驚奇,更重要的是他本人在觀察思考中所感受到的驚奇。他用他的作品來表現這些驚奇,讓你和他一起驚奇,有藝術,有科學,有對大自然和對人的敬佩。

  要用適當的中文來傳達埃舍爾的這種驚奇,也是一件很難做到的事,譯者做到了,這不也是一種驚奇嗎?

















Godel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid Douglas R. Hofstadter (著) 1979

2008年10月26日 星期日

三頭六臂集 47-52


三頭六臂集

52

從經典看閩南語的古雅觀賞影片 2008-05-21 楊秀芳教授


http://speech.ntu.edu.tw/user/vod_film.php?film_series=64&pager_PageID=1&film_sn=746

胡適講座
主題:從經典看閩南語的古雅講者:楊秀芳教授主辦單位:秘書室 日期:2008-05-21片長:102 分鐘語言:中文台大的錄音/影 竟然非多境頭 不可思議
這講題不是用閩南語講 也是一大諷刺

*****
David Dubal
David Dubal 的鋼琴欣賞節目的引言多甚妙
今天引的是

"純水是上帝賜與人的最佳 best 禮物.....
願到處有飲泉水.....
小子何許人也
起敢擔受最佳之禮
對我 葡萄酒 威士忌甚至於啤酒已足矣"David Dubal's Radio Show "Reflections from the Keyboard""Reflections from the Keyboard -- The Piano in Comparative Performance" with David Dubal, Peabody award and Emmy award winner, is one of the most popular ...


51
再一次 大規模的產品召回 Sony Computer Batteries Recalled Due to Fire and Burn Hazard
Sony said five computer makers are recalling 100,000 lithium-ion battery packs made by the company, the latest bad news to hit the Japanese electronics giant.


沒說清楚的トヨタの中国合弁会社、8万3406台をリコール
リコールの対象になるのは、トヨタと中国第一汽車集団との合弁会社が07年5月17日から08年6月10日までに生産したヴィオス、クラウン、カローラなど。この不具合関連で事故などが起きたかについては明らかにされていない。



50

系統的設計
美國這回總統大選的一創舉是30州允許提早投票
大大促進人民的投票參與率
The Success of Early Voting
Early voting has many advantages, but the main one is that it makes it likely that more eligible voters will participate in democracy.


Science is facts; just as houses are made of stones, so is science made of facts; but a pile of stones is not a house and a collection of facts is not necessarily science. — Jules Henri Poincare (1854-1912)



"中國時報頭版今天刊登廣告指稱「阿扁貪污不是只有國務機要費」,署名陳茂宗。前總統陳水扁辦公室今天表示,這則廣告涉及誹謗,陳水扁將立即對陳茂宗及中國時報提誹謗告訴。 陳水扁辦公室下午發布新聞稿表示,這則廣告通篇都是明顯錯誤, ..."

盛傳"中國時報系"成為新聞--蘋果買下中天、中時
當老闆早已無能無心經營時 或許像台灣鄉下婦女在殺雞時喃喃自語 "早日投跆去也..."

30日下午碰到【晏山農】 ---他今天寫 我見我思─又是「台灣呆狗*」 2008-10-30
他拿"中國時報"的"遺臣"之名片--問他「台灣呆狗」如何發音 楊碧川老師可以對答

 *台南市議員王定宇率眾抗議中國海協會副會長張銘清,致其在推擠中跌倒一事後,傳出兩岸黑道連手準備伺機修理王定宇的訊息。終於,在江湖人物黃如意穿針引線下,王定宇受「邀」至其台北辦公室,再透過中天電視的獨家攝錄,黃如意以大哥訓斥小弟的姿態捶了王定宇兩拳,黃還透過鏡頭代王向張銘清道歉。  這短短四分多鐘的鏡頭播出後震驚全台,由於事極敏感,泛藍人物一口咬定王定宇是自導自演,不少泛綠人士則深感言論自由、人身安全的不再, 以及對黑道治國的懼怖。在事件水落石出之前,我等實在不能遽斷真假,更不應預設立場臧否王定宇,唯一可以確定的是,黑道終於還是介入兩岸的恩怨糾葛了!這讓我不禁憶及台灣近代史上極其不堪的一頁,那就是日治時代所謂的「台灣呆狗」。  「台灣呆狗」指涉的是,在日本殖民政府的縱容庇護下,不少台灣的流氓、無賴漢在閩粵等地為虎作倀,荼毒當地中國人民的醜陋史。原台灣總督府警務局長本山文平在其回憶錄《夢幻的九十年》一書就詳述台灣軍司令部如何密令艋舺流氓李呂翼在福州殺害一名日本人小學校長,好作為出兵華南的藉口。「台灣呆狗」因其形象惡劣至極,致使當時沿海的中國人對台灣人全沒好印象。「台灣呆狗」的影像很模糊嗎?只要想想侯孝賢執導的《悲情城市》,裡頭由高捷飾演的三哥林煥良,就是最典型的「台灣呆狗」。  為虎作倀的「台灣呆狗」,當然在歷史定位上不會好到什麼地步,不過「台灣呆狗」同時兼具被統治者與加害者的雙重身分,而多數台灣人根本不 想面對這歷史公案,可如今新的「台灣呆狗」又在兩岸交流與政治矛盾中再度復活。所不同者在於,昔日的「台灣呆狗」是受控於日帝,今日的「台灣呆狗」則隱約 成了中國的統戰先鋒。  眾人憂心黑道治國,但實際上,黑道治國只是惘惘的威脅,未必是政治結構不可分的成員;相反的,黑道在中國為求苟存,必然得託庇於地方政府和中央的統戰部門。如今若為張銘清一事想投桃報李,一點都不讓人驚訝。  不過,一如蔣介石祇把清幫的杜月笙等視為夜壺,日帝利用「台灣呆狗」,國民黨和共產黨先後利用黑道制衡島內的草根民主力量,凡此都凸顯「台灣呆狗」好勇鬥狠的背後,永遠祇能扮演可悲可鄙的丑角!




三頭六臂集 49



收到臺大出版中心的信息
我可以趁機談一下台大的問題和展望--旁觀者的看法

"2006/1/3
「邁向頂尖大學計畫」--2005 年 10 月 9 日教育部公布了該計畫的入圍名單,共有 12 所學校獲得補助,其中本校獲得每年 30 億的補助。
未來將全面提昇教學研究、整合資源重點突破,追求卓越;準備在五年中發展出十到十五個領域成為世界一流,並以澳洲墨爾本大學為目標,在五年到十年中全校排名進入世界前一百大。期望本校師生員工能夠群策群力,攜手共進,克服種種困難,把本校推向世界百大,....."


這基本上不是"願景" 而是目標管制MBO
所以都偏向數量 幾乎無法兼顧品質
譬如說臺大出版中心大量出書 有許多書錯字連篇 無索引---不談內容之質
大量搞地面鋪路 庭園新建......你看看施工後的路已上下落差大 文學院的 樹下亂石一堆
招EMBA 一次約130人次 這是以13億人口為準的 重量不重質
台大的演講 會議或展覽等活動可能是其他大學的數倍
不過我可以用一比喻
我10月15日參觀 白先勇文學講座特展
覺得展覽場前面的花木不錯
不過十天之後 它就謝啦 必須移開...

《法律与文学》(Law and Literature) Richard A. Posner 1998

Harvard University Press: Law and Literature by Richard A. Posner

其中一例 pp.90-92

Michael Kohlhaas by Heinrich von Kleist



The classic story of a sixteenth-century man who suffers injustice and takes the law into his own hands. After horse trader Kohlhaas protests an unfair tax, things escalate until he becomes the heroic leader of a rebellion against the king.
Heinrich Von Kleist is one of the most important dramatic writers of European and German historical literature. He is the author of The Marquise of O and Penthesilea.
Wikipedia article "Michael Kohlhaas".

The Economic Structure of Intellectual Property Law - Page 67by William M. Landes, Richard A. Posner - Law - 2003 - 442 pages
... Doctorow's novel Ragtime would infringe Heinrich von Kleist's novella Michael
Kohlhaas; and Romeo and Juliet itself would have infringed Arthur Brooke's ...

*****

全宋詩-趙眾 題倅廳吏隱堂. 滿耳江聲滿目山,此身疑不在人寰。 民含古意村村靜,吏束刑書日日閒。
---
「常想在紛擾中尋出一點閑靜來,然而委實不容易。目前是這麼離奇,心裡是這麼蕪雜。」魯迅《朝花夕拾》
"朝花 夕拾"是什麼意思
...《舊事重提》,我還替他改了一個名稱:《朝花夕拾》。帶露折花,色香自然要好得多,但是我不能夠。便是現在心目中的離奇和蕪雜,我也還不能使他即刻幻化,轉成離奇和蕪雜的文章。或者,他日仰看流雲時,會在我的眼前一閃爍罷。
我有一時,曾經屢次憶起兒時在故鄉所吃的蔬果:菱角、羅漢豆、茭白、香瓜。凡這些,都是極其鮮美可口的;都曾是使我思鄉的蠱惑。後來,我在久別之後嘗到了,也不過如此;惟獨在記憶上,還有舊來的意味存留。他們也許要哄騙我一生,使我時時反顧。...

目錄



三頭六臂集 48

業界合作的一特例
WSJ報導 Internet Giants Set Common Voice Abroad
Google, Yahoo and Microsoft have reached an agreement on principles for doing business in nations that restrict speech.
紐約時報Google Settles Suit Over Book-Scanning
他們已就如何在限制言論表達自由的國家開展業務達成一系列共同原則。這些公司面臨著外界對他們協助這些國家實施信息審查的批評。根據新原則﹐這些技術巨頭承諾﹐無論他們在哪裡做生意﹐都會保護用戶的個人信息﹐並嚴格詮釋與實施政府危及隱私的要求。他們還保證﹐在一個國家推出新業務之前﹐將嚴格評估該國政府危及個人信息和言論自由的歷史紀錄﹐並與管理層和董事會成員廣泛討論這些風險。...遵守當地法律的法律責任﹐新準則並沒有從根本上改變這一做法﹐因為原則承認上述公司仍然必須遵守開展業務所在國的當地法律。原則也沒有對一些具體行為作出規定﹐以避免道德上出風險的情況﹐例如無限制地設置服務器。但這些公司承諾最大程度地抵制政府要求﹐並謹慎評估他們的決定對人權方面的影響。

Google’s Green Agenda Could Pay Off

SAN FRANCISCO — Google, the Internet search and advertising giant, is increasingly looking to the energy sector as a potential business opportunity.

Microsoft之惡劣
Microsoft Battles Low-Cost Rival for Africa
Microsoft sees sub-Saharan Africa, among the poorest places on earth, as one of the last great computing frontiers. But critics say the software giant is steering cash-strapped governments away from the cheapest solution: Linux.

消基會終於拆穿保力達B與維士比在數十年的廣告之問題

「福氣」在哪? 消基會:提神飲料防腐劑含量高
由於保力達B與維士比含有許多營養成分,在販售或保存期間,可能會發生劣變或孳生微生物而造成腐敗,因此,為了了解保力達B與維士比是否添加防腐劑,來抑制微生物生長、延長保存期限,消基會進行檢測發現這兩項產品二烯酸鉀檢出量竟高達0.8 g/kg以上,已經超出「食品」 ...



三頭六臂集 47

~に帰る regain the enthusiasm one had as a beginner.

「初心」(2004-08 四人)

---
英文世界用食物污染 而台灣10月25日遊行等採用黑心
這是兩種不同的用語習慣

TAIPEI - China apologized to Taiwan Monday over tainted Chinese milk products that sickened three children and a woman, officials said. ...

全球製造業對新興國家的依賴度持續增加,德勤全球( Deloitte)發布的2008年「新興國家產品來源的風險報告」指出,安全與品質成為製造業產品最重要的風險。 台灣食品業獲利近來不斷受到大陸黑心原料衝擊,最快在食品業第三季的財報上,就會反映出來。 ...

黑心
比喻人陰險狠毒,泯沒天良。紅樓夢˙第二十五回:「那王夫人不罵賈環,便叫過姨娘來,罵道:『養出這樣黑心不知理下流種子來,也不管管。』」或作「黑心肝」。

*****
我很早就知道日本用深遠なる知識(Profound Knowledge™)
淵博之淵為"深"
不過"遠"或比"博"更好....

The Deming System of Profound Knowledge (wikipedia) 的英文-日本簡介很值得參考

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W._Edwards_Deming

The Deming System of Profound Knowledge

"The prevailing style of management must undergo transformation. A system cannot understand itself. The transformation requires a view from outside. The aim of this chapter is to provide an outside view—a lens—that I call a system of profound knowledge. It provides a map of theory by which to understand the organizations that we work in.
"The first step is transformation of the individual. This transformation is discontinuous. It comes from understanding of the system of profound knowledge. The individual, transformed, will perceive new meaning to his life, to events, to numbers, to interactions between people.
"Once the individual understands the system of profound knowledge, he will apply its principles in every kind of relationship with other people. He will have a basis for judgment of his own decisions and for transformation of the organizations that he belongs to. The individual, once transformed, will:
  • Set an example;
  • Be a good listener, but will not compromise;
  • Continually teach other people; and
  • Help people to pull away from their current practices and beliefs and move into the new philosophy without a feeling of guilt about the past."
Deming advocated that all managers need to have what he called a System of Profound Knowledge, consisting of four parts:
  1. Appreciation of a system: understanding the overall processes involving suppliers, producers, and customers (or recipients) of goods and services (explained below);
  2. Knowledge of variation: the range and causes of variation in quality, and use of statistical sampling in measurements;
  3. Theory of knowledge: the concepts explaining knowledge and the limits of what can be known (see also: epistemology);
  4. Knowledge of psychology: concepts of human nature.
Deming explained, "One need not be eminent in any part nor in all four parts in order to understand it and to apply it. The 14 points for management in industry, education, and government follow naturally as application of this outside knowledge, for transformation from the present style of Western management to one of optimization."
"The various segments of the system of profound knowledge proposed here cannot be separated. They interact with each other. Thus, knowledge of psychology is incomplete without knowledge of variation.
"A manager of people needs to understand that all people are different. This is not ranking people. He needs to understand that the performance of anyone is governed largely by the system that he works in, the responsibility of management. A psychologist that possesses even a crude understanding of variation as will be learned in the experiment with the Red Beads (Ch. 7) could no longer participate in refinement of a plan for ranking people."[19]
The Appreciation of a system involves understanding how interactions (i.e. feedback) between the elements of a system can result in internal restrictions that force the system to behave as a single organism that automatically seeks a steady state. It is this steady state that determines the output of the system rather than the individual elements. Thus it is the structure of the organization rather than the employees, alone, which holds the key to improving the quality of output.
The Knowledge of variation involves understanding that everything measured consists of both "normal" variation due to the flexibility of the system and of "special causes" that create defects. Quality involves recognizing the difference in order to eliminate "special causes" while controlling normal variation. Deming taught that making changes in response to "normal" variation would only make the system perform worse. Understanding variation includes the mathematical certainty that variation will normally occur within six standard deviations of the mean.
The System of Profound Knowledge is the basis for application of Deming's famous 14 Points for Management, described below.


深遠なる知識(Profound Knowledge™)

「マネジメントは変化を受け入れなければならない。システムは自分自身を理解できない。変革には外部からの視点が必要である。ここでは、外部の視点について論じる。それを私は深遠なる知識の体系と呼ぶ。それは、組織を理解するための地図を提供する。
「第一段階は、個人の変革である。この変革は断続的である。それは、深遠なる知識の体系を理解することから生じる。変革された個人は、人生/イベント/数値/他人との対話に新たな意味を見出すだろう。
「個人が深遠なる知識の体系を理解したら、彼はその原則を他人とのあらゆる関係に適用する。彼は自ら判断し、彼が属する組織を変革させるだろう。変革された個人は、
  • 例を挙げ
  • 他人の話を良く聞くが、決して妥協せず
  • 人々に常に教え
  • 人々に新たな哲学を植え付ける」[15]
デミングは、経営者は彼が「深遠なる知識の体系」と呼ぶものを持つ必要があるとした。それは、次の4つからなる。
  1. システムの理解(Appreciation of a system)- 供給業者、製造、顧客を含めたプロセス全体を理解する
  2. ばらつきに関する知識(Knowledge of variation) - 品質のばらつきの範囲と原因を知るため、統計的標本化技法を利用する
  3. 知識の理論(Theory of knowledge) - 知識を説明する概念と知ることができる限界(認識論
  4. 心理学に関する知識(Knowledge of psychology) - 人間性の概念
デミングは次のように述べている。「これら4つについて、理解し実践するのにその分野の最高権威である必要はない。マネジメントの14のポイントは、西洋のマネジメントスタイルの変革において、この知識の応用として産業界、教育、政府によって自然に適用されている。
「ここに挙げた深遠なる知識の体系の各部分は、別々に考えてはいけない。これらは相互に関連している。従って、心理学に関する知識は、ばらつきに関する知識なしでは不完全である。
「指導者は、人々に個性があることを理解しなければならない。それは何もランク付けするということではない。各人に組織内での役割があり貢献していることを理解するのがマネジメントの責任である」[15]
「システムの理解」は、システムの構成要素間の相互作用理解し、どのようにしてシステムが安定した状態に向かうのかを把握することである。個々の要 素によらず、この安定した状態がどんなものであるかによって、システムの出力が決定される。つまりそれは、組織の構成員ではなく構造であり、出力の品質を 向上させる鍵はそこにある。
「ばらつきに関する知識」は、測定可能なものには必ず標準的な分散と特殊原因による固有の問題があると理解することである。品質向上は、特殊原因を 排除し、標準的な分散を制御することに他ならない。デミングは、標準的な分散に対して変革しようとすれば、システムの性能は低下するとした。この考え方がシックス・シグマへと繋がる。
深遠なる知識の体系は、次に挙げるマネジメントの14のポイントの基盤となっている。

2008年10月19日 星期日

台灣戴明圈2008年東海戴明學者講座活動25張照片暨迴響 by Peter Hsiung

hc借東海音樂系的老師說法答 謝 Peter 的來信


"退而不休,終身為東海教育奉獻的羅芳華教授,以流利的國語及感性的語氣,表達得獎心得,她表示:自己 的貢獻,是因為有太多人的支持與幫助,然而愛你做的事,就會成功!」"


****Peter 來信


這真是一場充滿陽光,喜悅與愛的講座, 因著紀念戴明生日推崇其學說哲理, 以及老師您對過去服務公司,師情, 友情的感恩感謝, 起而交織台灣戴明圈:2008年東海戴明講座得以實現, 如封面所列"MAKING THINGS HAPPEN. GETTING THINGS DONE."的豪情與實踐.

讓我感到很榮幸得以參加此一整個講座, 我想以論語的開場三句話, 即子曰:"學而時習之,不亦說乎?有朋自遠方來,不亦樂乎?人不知而不慍,不亦君子乎?"作為此次講座回響


學而時習之,不亦說乎 此次講座的主題PROFOUND KNOWLEDGE Deming Scholar Lecture Series 2008, 讓我們學習體驗"戴明自認為生平的登峰造極思想總結--淵博智識系統", 如慕春風, 如享陽光.


有朋自遠方來,不亦樂乎 不僅講座的主講人 W.W.Scherkenbach來自美國, 而且參與此次講座的朋友來自四面八方, 或產業, 或學術, 共濟一堂, 極樂也.


人不知而不慍,不亦君子乎 此次的盛會得以成就, 誠如您於開場白所引戴明博士說:"產出如此卓越, 因人們一起工作的方式而成此善事." "The way people work together is what produces excellence." (W.Edwards Deming's famous quote to those at Sacred Heart),

有許多的人在幕後支持協助, 而您是如此的謙卑, Peter Lee 李基正先生講得最真實"書本的封面中,你的名字的字最小.", 再由您書中第四部 東海...人物及難忘的師長, 並於講座結束前為學生所做之傳承期許, 實已埋下戴明哲學之種子, 胸懷大愛 故為君子也.

感謝您的付出, 得以有緣參與此次盛會, 試做一對聯以記此盛會

上聯:戴淵博智識跨變異楚漢
下聯:明持續改善統品質將清
橫批:天下為公

維強 敬上

****

2008年10月14日 星期二

How Detroit Drove Into a Ditch 西式管理風格必須改弦更張(戴明)

目錄
致謝
序言(王晃三博士)7
開場白:故事、寓言(鍾漢清) 11
台灣戴明圈的故事(鍾漢清) 15
簡介戴明、威廉‧謝爾肯巴赫先生(鍾漢清) 23

第一部 導言:戴明到日本(鍾漢清) 35
戴明與台灣(簡記)(鍾漢清) 45
《1950 年戴明博士對日本高階經營者演講》 53
品管九講 譯者序言(劉振) 64
品管九講 品質管制與企業發展(小柳賢一) 67
日本品質管制之回顧(戴明) 74
日本的成就(戴明) 80

第二部 導言 (鍾漢清) 91
《戴明博士四日談》中文版導言(鍾漢清增修) 102
一首值得傳唱的史詩:《轉危為安》(鍾漢清) 109
運用戴明循環(鍾漢清) 118
鳥瞰 Lean/Six Sigma 運動 (1979-2008) (鍾漢清) 128
簡談實驗設計(鍾漢清) 153
由戴明理念談實驗設計之應用(蔡坤祥) 158
西式管理風格必須改弦更張(戴明) 163
戴明博士到 HP,團隊合作(鍾漢清) 172

第三部
2008 年東海戴明學者講座 185
主講人:威廉‧謝爾肯巴赫先生簡介 188
講座之一 193
講座之二 227
講座之三 252

尾聲 Epilog 2008 年戴明淵博知識系統之旅 275

附錄
第四部 東海…人物
播種季 286
東海大學和 英國 Essex 大學的點滴 288
從東海第七宿舍讀司馬賀先生談 30 年的緣份 294
慶祝東海 IE 創立四十年 鍾漢清 297
前進英國省錢大作戰 - Less $$ can be more 300

難忘的師長
引言:從漢寶德老師談其他老師 305
陳其寬老師 310
高禩瑾院長 314
劉振老師 322
劉振老師紀念獎 Liu Cheng Award 328
紀念 吳玉印(Yuin Wu)老師 330
王錦堂老師 334
張忠樸先生 338
附錄(二) 從統計制程管制到實驗設計(蔡坤祥 投影片) 339


***
U.S. Rejects G.M.’s Call for Help in a Merger

Officials were reluctant to broaden the $700 billion rescue program to include industrial companies or to play a part in a merger that could cost thousands of jobs.




Essay

How Detroit Drove Into a Ditch

The financial crisis has brought the U.S. auto industry to a breaking point, but the trouble began long ago. Paul Ingrassia on disastrous decisions, flawed leadership and what the Motor City needs to do to survive.

By PAUL INGRASSIA

With little fanfare, a new car factory opened in America earlier this month. The new Honda assembly plant in Greensburg, Ind., will produce 200,000 compact Civic models annually after reaching full capacity late next year. The contrast couldn't be starker between Detroit's woes and the continuing U.S. expansion of Japanese, German and Korean car companies -- in both market share and manufacturing capacity. There are two American auto industries, one generally thriving and the other drastically shrinking.

Ron Kimball Photography

The shrinking is accelerating dramatically. Just yesterday Chrysler said it would ax 25% of its white-collar employees, about 5,000 people, next month. General Motors is cutting thousands more jobs and a variety of management benefits, including matching contributions to retirement savings plans. The two ailing car companies are exploring a possible merger in hopes of reaping the synergies that so infamously eluded the DaimlerChrysler union a decade ago. Last summer GM sought to merge with Ford, only to be rebuffed. Billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian started selling his stake in Ford last week after the value of his investment plunged by two-thirds since he bought the stock last spring. All this indicates the extent of Detroit's desperation. The Detroit Three (no longer the Big Three) are adamantly denying bankruptcy rumors, but there's no denying that their very survival hangs in the balance.

This situation doesn't stem from the recent meltdown in banking and the markets. GM, Ford and Chrysler have been losing billions since 2005, when the U.S. economy was still healthy. The financial crisis does, however, greatly exacerbate Detroit's woes. As car sales plunge -- both in the U.S. and in Detroit's once-booming overseas markets -- it's becoming nearly impossible for the companies to cut costs fast enough to keep pace with the evaporation of their revenue. All three companies, once the very symbol of American economic might, need new capital, but their options for raising it are limited.

Memorable cars

Domestic carmakers have produced a long line of memorable vehicles, but not all have been winners. Enlarge the image to see a chart of some of Detroit's design successes and failures from the past 50 years.

In all this lies a tale of hubris, missed opportunities, disastrous decisions and flawed leadership of almost biblical proportions. In fact, for the last 30 years Detroit has gone astray, repented, gone astray and repented again in a cycle not unlike the Israelites in the Book of Exodus.

It wasn't that American auto executives were always malicious and stupid while the Japanese were always enlightened and smart. Japanese car companies have made plenty of mistakes, most recently Toyota's ill-timed move into full-sized pickup trucks and SUVs. But just as America didn't understand the depth of ethnic and religious divisions in Iraq, Detroit failed to grasp -- or at least to address -- the fundamental nature of its Japanese competition. Japan's car companies, and more recently the Germans and Koreans, gained a competitive advantage largely by forging an alliance with American workers.

Detroit, meanwhile, has remained mired in mutual mistrust with the United Auto Workers union. While the suspicion has abated somewhat in recent years, it never has disappeared -- which is why Detroit's factories remain vastly more cumbersome to manage than the factories of foreign car companies in the U.S.

The result of this burden, and of other failures, has been catastrophic. Because of it, Detroit remains saddled with a cost structure that prevents making profits on any vehicles besides gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs. That was fine during the SUV boom, just as owning Enron stock was terrific until that infamous company crashed. But then Enron stockholders who hadn't diversified their portfolios were wiped out. Now Detroit lacks a diversified source of profits -- i.e. small cars, midsize sedans, etc. -- and is scrambling to avoid a similar fate. It's highly unlikely that all three companies will survive.

Associated Press

Workers at a General Motors plant assemble the Pontiac Solstice in 2005.

Two incidents in 1936 and 1937 formed this lasting labor-management divide: the sit-down strike at GM's factories in Flint, Mich., and the Battle of the Overpass in Detroit, in which Ford goons beat up union organizers. But the United Auto Workers prevailed, and as the GM-Ford-Chrysler oligopoly emerged in the 1940s, the union gained a labor monopoly in American auto factories. As costs increased, the companies routinely passed them on to U.S. consumers, who had virtually no alternatives in buying cars.

That's how things stood entering the 1970s, a decade that brought America Watergate, defeat in Vietnam, two oil crises, inflation, stagflation, the Iran hostage crisis and malaise. (Not to mention "The Brady Bunch" and bell-bottom pants.) In Detroit, amid worker alienation and the "blue-collar blues," Chevies, Fords and Plymouths rattled, rusted and rolled over -- and those were the good ones. The Ford Pinto's gas tank was prone to explode into flames when the car was hit from the rear, making the Pinto the poster product for corporate callousness. In 1978, after three Indiana girls burned to death when their Pinto got rear-ended, Ford became the first company to be indicted for reckless homicide. The company later was acquitted, but public opinion judged the Pinto guilty.

For all the Pinto's infamy, perhaps no car better captured America's decade-long haplessness than the pug-ugly AMC Gremlin, which debuted in 1970 and died -- mercifully -- in 1980. The Gremlin's shape, fittingly, was first sketched out by an American Motors designer on the back of a Northwest Airlines air-sickness bag. On Aug. 20, 1979, 18-year-old Brad Alty, fresh out of high school in Mechanicsburg, Ohio, was driving his Gremlin to work when the car broke down. He was two-and-a-half hours late to his first day on the job at a new motorcycle factory that Honda Motor was opening in central Ohio.

For the next few weeks, Mr. Alty and his 63 co-workers did little but sweep floors and paint them with yellow lines. Then they started building three to five motorcycles a day. And at the end of each day they would disassemble each bike, piece by piece, to evaluate the workmanship. Mr. Alty hated it, and he kept getting grief from his older brother for working for a Japanese company. "I thought I had made a mistake by going to work there," he recalled recently. "It was like, 'What the heck am I doing here?' "

But Mr. Alty stuck with it, and Honda stuck with him. Honda's real goal was to build cars in America, but the motorcycle plant allowed it to test the mettle of American workers for a modest investment. The workers passed the test. Honda started building Accords in Ohio in November 1982. Ironically, some U.S. Honda dealers actually protested that they wanted to sell only Accords made in Japan. But the quality of the Ohio-made cars was soon confirmed.

Nissan, Toyota and other Japanese car companies soon started building factories in America, followed by German and Korean auto makers. There are now 16 foreign-owned assembly plants in the U.S., and many more that build engines, transmissions and other components. The UAW hasn't organized many of them, the main exceptions being plants that began as partnerships between a U.S. and Japanese auto maker, where the union was "grandfathered" in. As Detroit's oligopoly was broken, so was the UAW's labor monopoly in the auto industry. The big winner was the car-buying public.

Meanwhile, in the same year that Honda started building cars in Ohio, General Motors asked the UAW for wage concessions to help ease the company's financial straits. But on the same day that UAW members voted approval, GM Chairman Roger B. Smith unveiled a new formula that made it easier for him and other executives to earn bonuses. It was a historic blunder.

In 1987, when I was this newspaper's Detroit bureau chief, Mr. Smith asked me to tour several GM factories to view first-hand how the company's relationship with its workers had improved. At the GM engine plant in Tonawanda, N.Y., near Buffalo, I got glowing reports about the dawn of a new spirit of cooperation. Then I asked to visit the men's room, and was stunned to see that there were two: one for hourly workers, and a separate one for management. I used the hourly men's loo.

Meanwhile, Mr. Smith was trying to transform GM with a high-tech spending splurge. At GM's factory in Hamtramck, Mich., the automated guided vehicles that were supposed to replaced old-fashioned fork lifts sat as still as stones, because the programming algorithms were too complicated. The spray-painting robots turned their nozzles on each other instead of the cars.

While GM was going astray, Ford and Chrysler were in repentance mode in the 1980s. Chrysler staged a historic comeback from near-death under its charismatic CEO, Lee Iacocca. In 1984 the company launched a new product called the mini-van, which supplanted family station wagons almost overnight. With the Taurus, Ford re-established Detroit's lead over the import brands in styling, evoking the days when Americans rushed down to a dealer to see the latest automotive designs, and the company forged better relations with the UAW. All three companies suffered in the Gulf War recession, especially GM, which posted a then-record $4.5 billion loss in 1991. The company's board ousted CEO Robert Stempel. But by the mid-1990s all three companies were posting record profits thanks to the boom in SUVs, which the Japanese didn't make at the time. The profit surge prompted Germany's Daimler-Benz to buy Chrysler, which owns the iconic Jeep brand, for some $36 billion in 1998.

As the new millennium began, Detroit envisioned a prosperous second century. In June 2000, GM's confident new CEO, Rick Wagoner, invited journalists to a resort in Italy's Alpine lakes to describe a corporate future of "fewer cars, more trucks," as the Detroit Free Press wrote. Ford's CEO Jacques Nasser upgraded the décor on the corporate jets and removed the company's blue-oval logo from the outside of corporate headquarters while the Ford Taurus -- once the best-selling car in America -- was falling further behind the Toyota Camry and the Honda Accord. It was going-astray time again. These days, Detroit's styling advantage has largely disappeared, and excitement over new designs is reserved for iPhones.

The debilitating management-union relationship largely remains, however. In 1998, after GM moved some equipment at factories in Flint against the UAW's wishes, workers went on strike for 54 days, costing GM $3 billion. While such headline-making confrontations have become rare, small-scale impasses occur regularly.

Not terribly long ago, says a Ford manager who must remain unnamed, Ford dispatched a team of welding experts to a factory to explore efficiency moves. The plant's union leaders, fearing layoffs might result, refused to meet with the team, and the effort came to naught. UAW leaders aren't bad people; far from it. But when everything is a negotiation, many things don't get done. (Just ask any parent.)

Several years ago Ford even considered dropping cars altogether because they weren't profitable, and focusing entirely on trucks. Then in 2005, Hurricane Katrina and growing oil demand from China and India sent gasoline prices soaring and SUV sales plunging. GM lost $10.6 billion that year. Ford topped that by losing $12.7 billion in 2006. Last summer Daimler gave up on Chrysler, selling it to private-equity powerhouse Cerberus for about one-fourth of what it had paid to buy Chrysler. Last fall the UAW approved significant wage and benefit concessions, but they won't kick in until 2010. That might be too late. GM lost $15.5 billion in this year's second quarter, Ford lost $8.7 billion, and further losses are coming. (Closely held Chrysler, of course, doesn't report financial results.)

What now? Cerberus is trying to sell Chrysler. The most logical buyer would be Nissan, India's Tata or some other profitable foreign car company seeking to expand in the U.S. But desperation doesn't breed logic, which is why General Motors might become the buyer. It's difficult to see how this deal would make any sense for GM, which already has too many brands (eight) and must cut billions from its cost base. Adding more brands (Chrysler has three) and more costs would be charging headlong in the wrong direction, and distract GM's management from putting its own house in order.

GM is bleeding cash so quickly that it likely will run out next summer without a sizeable transfusion. Selling assets, selling stock or adding debt will be enormously difficult for the company. But unless one of those things happens it's either a government bailout or bankruptcy for General Motors.

Ford's cash position is somewhat better than GM's, and the company seems to have more options. Its Volvo subsidiary and its 33% stake in Mazda are valuable assets that could be sold. But Mr. Kerkorian's apparent about-face on Ford is unsettling. It's possible that the blue-blooded Ford family is just as happy to see the Las Vegas billionaire cash in his chips, but his move could shut off a potential source of additional investment that Ford might need in its quest to survive.

But to thrive, instead of just survive, Detroit will have to use the brains of its workers instead of just their bodies, and the UAW will have to allow it. Two weeks ago some automation equipment broke down at the Honda factory in Marysville, Ohio, but employees rushed to the scene and devised a temporary solution. There were no negotiations with shop stewards, no parsing of job descriptions. Instead of losing an entire shift of production, Honda lost just 150 cars. The person overseeing Marysville's assembly operations is Brad Alty, still with Honda after nearly 30 years. These days, instead of a Gremlin, he's driving a Honda Pilot -- made at a Honda factory in Alabama.

Paul Ingrassia is the former Detroit bureau chief for The Wall Street Journal. He is writing a book about America's car culture.

Write to Paul Ingrassia at ingrassiap@gmail.com

*****

Welfare for Detroit

Should lower-paid workers help subsidize those averaging $56,650 at GM?

Monday, October 27, 2008; Page A12


AFTER YEARS of decline, U.S. auto companies face the double whammy of a credit crisis and a recession. Car and truck sales fell 26.6 percent in September, the first month since 1993 in which fewer than 1 million vehicles moved off the lots. General Motors, threatened with bankruptcy and burning through $1 billion in cash reserves per month, is groping for a merger with Chrysler. Ford's stock is down more than 70 percent in the past year, and investor Kirk Kerkorian is dumping his shares.

The $25 billion federal loan approved by Congress on Sept. 25 may not reach Detroit for six to 18 months because of red tape. So Detroit's allies are pushing for waivers of the usual rules and, perhaps, another $25 billion before the end of the year. And why not? Everyone else seems to be getting a bailout these days. Hundreds of thousands of people depend on Detroit for their jobs, directly or indirectly.

Well, we can think of several objections. First, there is the question of whether the U.S. government should be picking winners and losers in a business such as this. It's one thing to bail out the financial sector, whose product -- credit -- is essentially fungible and on which all other businesses depend. Automobiles, however, are not interchangeable, and Congress can't substitute its specific technological and aesthetic preferences for those of the market. What if we lend Detroit $25 billion and still nobody buys its cars?

Second, this bailout taxes the less well-off to protect the relatively privileged. The average individual General Motors production worker, whose job would be saved by the bailout, makes $56,650 per year, according to the Center for Automotive Research, and that doesn't count better-paid, white-collar types. Meanwhile, half of all households-- which typically include more than one earner -- make less than $50,000 per year. Where's the justice in that?

Congress approved $7,500 tax credits for purchasers of GM's much-touted plug-in hybrid Chevy Volt, built to run 40 miles on a single electric charge. That would knock the net cost of the four-seat Volt, due out in late 2010, down to $32,500 -- not much less than a basic Cadillac CTS costs now. Even then, it could take a decade of Volt driving to recoup the difference in purchase prices between it and the far cheaper Toyota Prius. Assuming a few well-heeled drivers take that deal, why should poorer people be taxed to enable them?

The downfall of the American auto industry is indeed a tragedy. But the automakers and the United Auto Workers have only themselves to blame for much of it. For years, they pursued protectionism against foreign competitors rather than tackle them head-on. The automakers say that they need $25 billion from Congress to offset the additional costs of tough new fuel-efficiency standards. Perhaps they wouldn't be in that situation if they had accepted such standards a long time ago and retooled to meet them, rather than persisting in the more familiar, and profitable, business of making gas guzzlers.




The downfall of the American auto industry is indeed a tragedy. But the automakers and the United Auto Workers have only themselves to blame for much of it. For years, they pursued protectionism against foreign competitors rather than tackle them head-on. The automakers say that they need $25 billion from Congress to offset the additional costs of tough new fuel-efficiency standards. Perhaps they wouldn't be in that situation if they had accepted such standards a long time ago and retooled to meet them, rather than persisting in the more familiar, and profitable, business of making gas guzzlers.

We would all have been better off if the federal government had enacted a higher gas tax so that the Big Three could have planned production on that basis. A stiffer gas tax, rebatable in some form to consumers, would still be the best way to guarantee a long-term shift to more economical cars. Alas, there's a limit to how much taxpayers can spend ensuring that such cars get built in Detroit.

*****

Japan Carmakers' Swift Marketing Maneuvers
Tina Wang, 10.27.08, 5:58 AM ET

The road has lately become more treacherous for Japanese automakers, facing a global slowdown. But cutting back is not their only response. Faced with slumping sales in their most significant overseas markets, they are expanding down paths of least resistance, namely, into China and into lines of cars that sell more readily under current economic circumstances. While ailing U.S. automakers mull over mergers or asset sell-offs to stave off bankruptcy, Japanese car manufacturers appear versatile and flexible enough to adapt to bleak demand conditions.

Still-burgeoning demand in emerging markets and cheaper manufacturing costs are drawing Japanese automakers to China. Toyota Motor (nyse: TM - news - people ) said Monday it plans to build a $583.7 million plant in the northeastern Chinese city of Changchun, in partnership with FAW Group. The plant's expected output of 100,000 Corollas a year would bring Toyota's output in China to around 1 million cars a year.中国第一汽车集团公司

Not coincidentally, the company aims to sell 1 million cars a year in China around 2010. Mitsubishi Motors (other-otc: MMTOF - news - people ), which will slash production in its Japanese plants by up to 100,000 vehicles between November and March, said it plans to set up its own $31.8 million joint venture in Shanghai.

Japanese automakers are also redirecting production toward compact, fuel-efficient cars, changing course after ill-timed ventures into pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles. Honda Motor (nyse: HMC - news - people ) said on Monday that it had increased output by 9.6% in September, compared with Sept. 2007, to 360,453 vehicles. Production rose on the strength of demand for smaller cars, replacing minivans and SUVs. That followed similar shifts by Nissan Motor (other-otc: NSANY - news - people ) and South Korea's Hyundai Motor (other-otc: HYMLF - news - people ). (See "Nissan, Hyundai: Flashy Cars A Non-Starter.") Honda also said it had doubled production capacity in its joint venture with Dongfeng Motor (other-otc: DNFGF - news - people ), bolstering its output in China by 6.1%, to 80,130 vehicles.

A slump in U.S. demand has made times tough for Japanese automakers. Toyota Motor last week posted a quarterly drop in sales for the first time in seven years. Vehicles sold declined in the July-September quarter by 4.3%, compared with last year's corresponding period, to 2.2 million vehicles. It also slashed its global sales forecast for 2008 by 350,000 vehicles, to 9.5 million cars.

In Tokyo trading Monday, Toyota Motor shares were down 220 yen ($2.33), or 6.9%, to 2,980 yen ($31.63). Honda Motor shares were down 178 yen ($1.89), or 8.95%, to 1,812 yen ($19.23). Mitsubishi Motors shares were down 11 yen (12 cents), or 9.7%, to 102 yen ($1.08).





日本小型車きびきび 小さな「iQ」

トヨタの危機打開策とは

豊富な資金力と低燃費車へのシフトで景気減速に対応

  • 2008年10月27日 月曜日

Ian Rowley (BusinessWeek誌、東京支局特派員)
米国時間2008年10月20日更新 「How Toyota Plans to Beat the Downturn

 2005年6月の就任以来、トヨタ自動車(TM)の渡辺捷昭社長は事あるごとに、危機感喪失の危険性を警告していた(BusinessWeek誌の記事を参照:2007年3月5日「Katsuaki Watanabe: Fighting To Stay Humble」)。だが最近になるまで、社員にそうした意識を浸透させるのは至難の業だった。というのも、トヨタはこれまで右肩上がりの成長を続けてきたからだ。

 昨年度(2008年3月期)の新車販売台数は890万台と5年間で32%増加。純利益は53%増加の170億ドル(1兆7178億円)となった。今年度は、米ゼネラル・モーターズ(GM)を抜いて自動車業界首位に躍り出る見通しだ。

 とはいえ最近では、渡辺社長が株価を指差しただけで社員は気を引き締めるようになった。年初来、トヨタの株価は37%下落。最近の販売台数も、ビッグスリー(米自動車大手3社)をはるかに上回っているとはいえ、堅調な販売というにはほど遠い数字だ。

 9月期の北米での販売台数は10%落ち込んでおり、欧州市場でも低迷が続く。市場シェアが40%を超える日本でも、新車販売台数は過去20年余りで最低 だった昨年の数字をさらに下回る見通しだ。今年の販売台数40%増を目指す中国においてでさえ、トヨタ経営陣の期待ほどに数字は伸びていない。

 警鐘を鳴らすアナリストもいる。日興シティ証券の自動車アナリスト松島憲之氏は、10月10日付の投資家向けリポートで、トヨタについて「収益が急激かつ大幅に悪化する」と予想。「必要なのは、従来の路線を転換し、然るべき売上高の確保に向けた新たな戦略づくり」と述べている。

 松島氏はトヨタの2009年3月期の営業利益予想を、前年比50%減となる110億ドルに下方修正している。これはトヨタ自身の予想を50億ドルも下回る。

資金力を背景にしたゼロ金利キャンペーン

 投資家にとってはそろそろ引き際が来たかというと、そうとも言い切れない。たとえ今年の収益が半減したとしても、依然100億ドル(約1兆円)を 超える営業利益が見込めるからだ。加えて、安定した財務状況、200億ドル超の現金、数々の新車計画など、経済危機を乗り切るうえで競合他社よりも優位に 立てる条件がトヨタには備わっている。

 「トヨタ幹部が何かを決断した時は、資金調達に悩むことなく即座に行動に移すことが可能だ」と、ベルギーのKBCグループ傘下のKBC証券東京支社アナリスト、アンドリュー・フィリップス氏は言う。

 今のところ、ビッグスリーに比べるとトヨタの置かれた状況はそれほど深刻ではない(BusinessWeek.comの記事を参照:2008年10月7日「Can GM and Ford Scrape By?」)。

 この状況を維持するために北米市場で最も頼りになるのは、豊富な資金力だろう。6月末の時点で、トヨタは米国の金融子会社の現金30億ドル(約3000億円)で販売不振の穴埋めをしている。

 また、景気減速が深刻化し在庫が積み上がる中、トヨタは「カローラ」「カムリ」、大型ピックアップトラックの「タンドラ」など11車種を対象に、 金利なしで新車をローン販売する「ゼロ金利」キャンペーンを10月3日に開始した。今回は約1カ月の予定だが、ゼロ金利の提供期間を延長した場合、中古車 価格が下落し、ブランドイメージに傷がつく恐れがあると評論家は指摘する。

American carmakers

On the edge

Nov 13th 2008
From The Economist print edition

After the bank bail-out, it is now Detroit’s carmakers who are pleading for help


Corbis

IF NOTHING else, the revelation by General Motors (GM) on November 7th that it is in danger of running out of cash before the end of the year has concentrated minds. The reaction within the embattled car industry, and in Washington, DC, has been the same: we knew it was bad, but we did not know it was that bad. Ford is in a similar position, although its cash should hold out for a few months longer.

As for Chrysler, the smallest and weakest of Detroit’s Big Three, the precise state of its finances are harder to gauge because it is privately held. But the increasingly desperate attempts by Cerberus Capital Management, the private-equity firm that owns 80% of Chrysler, to offload some or all of it to another carmaker (GM said on November 7th that it had walked away from such a deal) suggest that its future as an independent entity is all but over.

What will happen next? The shareholders have been more or less wiped out, the credit markets are closed and neither GM nor Ford has any non-core assets that anyone wants to buy, with the possible exception of Ford’s 33% stake in Mazda, a profitable Japanese carmaker. The North American car market should come back strongly in 2010 or 2011, but for all practical purposes, that is light-years away: North American sales are running at their lowest levels since the early 1980s, when the population was 50m smaller. There are just two broad options: either the federal government steps in to save Ford and GM (Chrysler is probably unsalvageable) or America’s two biggest car firms must seek Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

In many ways, Chapter 11 was designed for just such a contingency. For all their present agonies, both Ford and GM have good long-term prospects. They have relatively healthy businesses in Europe and have been doing well in emerging markets, such as China, where there is vast potential.

They are also nearing the final stage of a lengthy and painful restructuring of their North American operations. Two million units of capacity have been stripped out; factories are being converted to produce more fuel-efficient cars; and a landmark deal with the United Auto Workers union in 2007 paved the way to cutting $1,000 of costs on every car they make from next year. “The river they are swimming across has been getting wider and deeper, but the pot of gold on the other side has been getting bigger as well,” says David Cole of the Center for Automotive Research.

However, there is considerable scepticism both within the industry and among analysts as to whether Chapter 11 is a way forward for GM and Ford (though it may, some concede, be more appropriate for Chrysler). Mr Cole says that “it would kill them in the market”. The fear is that rather than give the firms a breathing space in which they could complete the restructuring of their operations and extract further concessions from the union, Chapter 11 would set off a downward spiral.

Consumer surveys that suggest that 80-90% of prospective customers would abandon the products of a carmaker that had filed for bankruptcy protection. When airlines went into Chapter 11, most of their passengers stuck with them, reasoning they would be at least be in business long enough for tickets bought for trips just a few weeks away to be honoured.

Cars are different. A car is the most expensive purchase many consumers make, and by buying a car they also enter into a long-term contract. Buyers expect their 60,000-mile warranties to be honoured, parts to be kept supplied and their dealers not to have disappeared. Used-car values are also a critical part of the deal. If the firm that made the car has gone bust, it becomes virtually unsellable secondhand.

A further reason why Chapter 11 might not work for the carmakers, says Mark Oline, an analyst at Fitch Ratings, is that they have very little scope for further cost-cutting. “They’re not being crushed by wage and benefit costs—it’s about revenue and products now,” he says. Bankruptcy would do nothing to speed up the introduction of vital new models.

Those arguments may have weighed heavily with both Barack Obama, the president-elect, and the Democrats in Congress, who are moving towards sanctioning a bail-out package. They have gained added force from estimates of the economic fallout that could follow bankruptcy. Rod Lache, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, believes it would imperil many of the component-makers in North America, which in turn would hit the foreign-owned “transplant” factories that make up the rest of America’s car industry.

Mr Cole’s firm has modelled a scenario in which Detroit’s production falls by 50%. He estimates that in the first year that would cost 2.5m jobs: 240,000 from the carmakers themselves; 795,000 from suppliers and 1.4m from other firms indirectly affected. The cost in transfer payments and lost taxes would exceed $100 billion over three years. Some of Mr Cole’s assumptions are likely to be too pessimistic, but his blood-curdling forecast and others like it have helped to convince legislators that the $50 billion of help that the carmakers are asking for would be cheap at the price.

How and when the rescue funds will arrive is less certain. Nancy Pelosi, the House speaker, has called for a bill giving the carmakers access to the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Programme (TARP) established to shore up failing banks. But Hank Paulson, the treasury secretary, said on November 12th that this was not what the TARP had been intended for. Some are calling for a repeat of the scheme used to bail out Chrysler in 1979. On that occasion, in exchange for a loan of $1.5 billion, the government received warrants that it eventually sold for a profit.

A “lame duck” session of Congress could be convened as early as next week to pass the necessary legislation. President Bush might still veto it, but is less likely to do so if Mr Obama backs the plan. His recent victory is at least one piece of luck to have come the carmakers’ way.

紐約時報社論 Editorial

Saving Detroit From Itself


Published: November 15, 2008

We have seen a lot of posturing, but we haven’t heard a lot of sense in the debate over whether the government should spend even more to bail out Detroit’s foundering automakers.

Readers' Comments

Readers shared their thoughts on this article.

Senator Richard Shelby, a Republican of Alabama, is wrong when he says that the troubles of the Big Three are “not a national problem.” The Detroit companies support nearly 250,000 workers and more than a million retirees and dependents, as well as millions of workers at part makers and dealerships. A messy bankruptcy filing by any of the big car companies, in the midst of this recession, would likely cost the government and the economy more than trying to keep them afloat.

At the same time, Congressional Democrats and President-elect Barack Obama, who are pushing for many billions worth of emergency aid for the nation’s least-competent carmakers, must ensure that tough conditions are attached to any rescue package. If not, the money will surely be wasted.

This goes beyond firing top management, forbidding the payment of dividends to stockholders and putting limits on executive pay — all necessary steps. The government should insist on a complete restructuring of any company it pours billions of public funds into.

All three car companies have been hamstrung by the legacy costs of providing pensions and health care to hundreds of thousands of retirees. But Detroit’s problems are mostly of its own making.

The automakers hitched their fate to gas-guzzling trucks, and they obstinately refused to acknowledge that oil is a finite resource and that burning it limitlessly is harming the planet. They lobbied strenuously against tighter fuel-efficiency standards. That wrongheadedness did them in as gas prices spiked and consumers flocked to energy-efficient cars made by Toyota and Honda.

It makes no sense at all to give these companies billions just so they can struggle on for a few more months down this disastrous path.

Before it approves any bailout package, Congress must insist that any company receiving government money must commit to a specific plan to improve energy efficiency. The average fuel efficiency of the American auto fleet peaked at 25.9 miles per gallon in 1987 and then leveled off as gas prices fell and the automakers churned out more sport-utility vehicles and pickups.

Last year, Detroit managed to extract a promise of $25 billion in subsidized loans from Congress in exchange for a new target of 35 m.p.g. by 2020. But the industry can do better. If Detroit were willing to make smaller cars, as European companies do, it could probably achieve a fleet-wide average of 50 m.p.g. by 2020.

The companies also are struggling under a mountain of debt. And any restructuring would mean that creditors would have to swallow a loss or accept equity — as under a regular bankruptcy filing. Restructuring would likely require more plant closures and layoffs.

Rescued car companies would almost certainly have to re-open labor agreements on pay and benefits. These steps would be painful for many workers. But they also are necessary.

Even then, there is no guarantee that these companies will survive after years of failed management. We are sure they won’t if they don’t make sweeping changes in the way they do business. If Congress is going to take the risk and invest billions more of the taxpayers’ money in the companies, it must insist on those changes.

2008年10月4日 星期六

2008年東海戴明學者講座

























品質月刊10月號封底
海報蘇兆偉、萬珮彣 (東海) 設計


2008年東海戴明學者講座


主旨說明

戴明博士(W. Edwards Deming, 1900-1993) 是世界級管理哲學家,台灣的友人,參與創建日本現代經濟奇蹟和美國產業復興。戴明博士畢生的學問,構成一套完整系統,他晚年時稱之為「淵博知識體系」(Deming's System of Profound Knowledge)。

「淵博知識體系」係指:志在從事組織轉型的各階層領導者,要想圖組織和團隊的「轉危為安」、「長治久安」,就都必須能稍微體會、欣賞、融會、貫通下述四大核心價值、知識:

1)整體系統觀(2)系統的變異觀(3)知識理論(4)心理學。

「淵博知識體系」是一套專為全人員貢獻的心得,也是套適用於工商業、政界、教育 界等等的「新經濟學」--。它也可應用於個人修養精進、公司發達、社會繁榮、世界和平所不可或缺的。

在亞洲諸國當中,除了日本,他可能與台灣關係最密切。 Deming的學生和朋友頗多,其中對台灣最有緣份的,可能是William W. Scherkenbach (威廉‧謝爾肯巴赫)先生了。他今年(2008)為台灣某大科技公司的副總。

我們很幸運,在威廉‧謝爾肯巴赫的慷慨答應,以及東海蔡副校長和品質學會諸主管的協助下,能順利推出『東海戴明學者講座 2008』。希望這三場演講,能對台灣的產、官、學界有所貢獻,透過這些交流中,能更深入了解戴明的淵博知識精華應用到組織與個人轉型之道,促進品質和生產力的提升,養成持續改善事業之習慣。

第一場

演講主題:戴明修煉III:淵博知識導論和應用 (Lecture One: Dr. Deming’s System of Profound Knowledge…and its applications )

演講者:謝爾肯巴赫先生(Mr. William W. Scherkenbach

時間:10/16() 全天研討會9:10-5:00 專題演講 15:00-17:00

地點:台北 品管學會(羅斯福路27510) 台北捷運往新店線 古亭站 第四號出口

羅斯福路 和平東路 交口 Starbucks 隔壁

費用:全天研討會2500元整,專題演講500元整。

報名請洽:中華民國品質學會(02-23631344)

來賓於1430開始進場...





東海戴明學者講座(2008年度)

開幕、第一場

地點: 品管學會(台北市羅斯福路2段75號9樓)

台北捷運往新店線 古亭站 第四號出口

行程

14:300-15:00 茶 咖啡

來賓1430開始進場...

15:00-15:20 開幕

開幕主持人致詞 蔡禎騰(東海大學副校長)

引言:台灣戴明圈的故事 (鍾漢清)

劉振老師紀念獎 Liu Cheng Award

Winners 2008 永安 先生 汪永棋先生

15:20-16:20 演講

主題:戴明修煉III:淵博知識、導論、故事…….和應用 ( Dr. Deming’s System of Profound Knowledge…and its applications )

演講者謝爾肯巴赫先生(Mr. William W. Scherkenbach 光寶集團副總)

16:20-17:20 問答、反思、分享

主持人王晃三中原大學榮譽教授

回應人Mr. William W. Scherkenbach、鍾漢清、與會貴賓




第二、三場, Free and Open to All!

演講時間:10/17() 下午4:20-6:10

演講主題:Statistical Thinking and Psychology and Actions

演講時間:10/18() 上午10:00-12:00

演講主題:Systems Thinking and Knowledge

演講者:謝爾肯巴赫先生(Mr. William W. Scherkenbach

演講地點:東海大學 基礎科學實驗大樓一樓 求真廳

費用:免費

報名請洽:東海大學 工業工程與經營資訊學系 鄭玉玲小姐

電話:04-23594319137

e-mailyuiling@thu.edu.tw

詳細戴明學者講座訊息請見:

Tunghai Deming Scholar Lectures 2008 《戴明修煉III:戴明的淵博知識》

Welcome!








16日
全日

許勝賢--禾昌公司總經理特助
藍國勝---.虎尾科技大學
王履梅-(逢甲大學 東海工工-博士生)
林世彬 雷虎科技 經理
許文學 摩特動力公司
熊維強

台灣中油公司
謝旻志
陳曼莉 
張樹榮 
賴丹桂
許晉榮
沈永皓
黃輝煌
周師吉 
黃慧真
顏淑瓊
徐烈煌
林坤宗
吳忠中
陳奕伸
李江生
吳江籐
羅文杰 
劉訓偉
常永中
鄭豐盛
曾繁鑫
王啟佑
張太平
李昆林
林聖明
吉廷邦
白文癸
李金寶
江顯明



WWS 演講
SCHERKENBACH (WWS)夫婦 他太太 Mary Ellen
鍾清章 王晃三 蔡禎騰
陳寬仁
熊維強 Lisa Huang(黃玉鳳)夫婦

永安 先生 汪永棋先生
彩星光電 (www.colorstars.com) 總經理 Jimmy Chen 林公孚 蔡士魁
Ann Cheng


17-18日

徐歷昌先生(David Hsu -- P-TWO INDUSTRIES INC. Tech. Consultant)
Sam Huang某手機鍵盤廠QA manager: 與一名同仁
郭展昭 ( Justing) 。林世彬 (Kevin Lin )。熊維強(Peter Hsiung )、玉鳳(Lisa Hsiung )夫婦。
謝立沛老師。
東海大學IE 研究所師生近百人
新增聽講人員名單
  1. 東海工工1980級系友─吳懋仁
  2. Adam系友
  3. 逢甲大學工工系學生─林詩容 陳俊廷 陳俊發賴蓉萱
  4. 黃宇玲洪郡伶(僅有10/17場)
  5. 摩特動力─許文學 助理專員
  6. 愛爾蘭商速聯─謝東霖 (僅有10/18場)

http://www.thu.edu.tw/3_common/8_announcement/datil.php?no=9911

相關附件: 13916467312008 THU- Deming.pdf




2008年10月3日 星期五

A Taiwanese Deming Circle (1964-2008): 2008 Tunghai Deming Scholar Lectures





A Taiwanese Deming Circle (1964-2008): 2008 Tunghai Deming Scholar Lectures


Dedications p.3
Contents pp 5-6

Foreword ( S. D. Wang) pp.7-10

Prologue: Stories and Parables or an Introduction
(Hanching Chung; unless mentioned, most articles are by HC ) pp.11-22
I am very proud of this article because I integrated many stories.




Introducing Dr. W. Edwards Deming and Mr. William W. Scherkenbach pp. 23-33




Part I
Dr. W. Edwards Deming Lectures 1950/1970

Introduction
(Hanching Chung) pp.35-44
A Brief History of Dr. W. Edwards Deming and Taiwan (1964-1979), pp.45-52
Dr. Deming's 1950 Lecture to Japanese Top Management , pp.53-63
Translator Mr. Liu Cheng's introduction to Elementary Principles of the Statistical Control of Quality by W. Edwards Deming ( Revised and Enlarged, 1970), pp.64-66
A foreword from JUSE , pp.67-73

two articles of Dr. Deming's Account and Assessment of Japanese Quality Achievements
, pp. 74-79 and pp. 80- 89

Part II
Some Applications
Introduction Hanching Chung, pp. 91-101

Introduction to Chinese Version of Four Days With Dr. Deming, pp.102-108
Introduction to Chinese Version of Out of the Crisis by Dr. Deming, pp. 109-117
Applications of Deming Cycles: Philip Taiwan Achievements in Deming Prize and Beyond, pp.118127
An Accounting of Lean/Six Sigma Movement (1979-2008), pp. 128-152
A Brief Introduction of DoE, pp.153-57
From Statistical Process to Design of Experiments (by Dr. Tsai), pp.158-62
Western Management Style Must Change by Dr. W. Edwards Deming, pp. 163-171
Dr. Deming Visited HP: An Account of YHP and HP (1980s), pp.172-183




Part III
2008 Tunghai Deming Scholar Lectures
by
Mr. William W. Scherkenbach, pp. 185-274

Theme: Profound Knowledge

Speaker: Mr. William W. Scherkenbach

Dates and Venues:

Lecture I. Dr. Deming's System of Profound Knowledge…and its applications )

Oct. 16, 1515-1700 in Chinese Society for Quality, Taipei.

Lecture II: Statistical Thinking and Psychology and Actions

Oct. 17, 2008, Tunghai University, Taichung, Taiwan

Lecture III: Systems Thinking and Knowledge

Oct 18, 2008,
Tunghai University, Taichung, Taiwan

Host

Tunghai University, Taiwan

Co-host

Chinese Society for Quality, Taiwan


Epilogue pp.275-84

Appendix I

An Brief Account of My Study Life in Tunghai University(1971-75) and Essex University (1977-78), including Some Advices on Studying in U. K.

In Memory of Six Unforgettable Teachers in Tunghai

Appendix II
Slides of DoE ( Dr. Tsai)

( w/o Index)








A Taiwanese Deming Circle (1964-2008):
2008 Tunghai Deming Scholar Lectures


Dedications
Acknowledges

Foreword S. D. Wang
Introduction Hanching Chung

Introducing Dr. W. Edwards Deming and Mr. William W. Scherkenbach 23-33


Part I
Dr. W. Edwards Deming Lectures 1950/1970
A Brief History of Dr. W. Edwards Deming and Taiwan (1964-1979)
Introduction Hanching Chung
Dr. Deming's Account and Assessment of Japanese Quality Achievements
Dr. Deming's 1950 Lecture to Japanese Top Management


Part II
Some Applications
Introduction Hanching Chung

Introduction to Chinese Version of Four Days With Dr. Deming
Introduction to Chinese Version of Out of the Crisis by Dr. Deming
An Accounting of Lean/Six Sigma Movement (1979-2008)
Philip Taiwan Achievements in Deming Prize and Beyond
An Account of YHP and HP (1980s)
From Statistical Process to Design of Experiments

Part III
2008 Tunghai Deming Scholar Lectures
by
Mr. William W. Scherkenbach

Theme: Profound Knowledge

Speaker: Mr. William W. Scherkenbach

Dates and Venues:

Lecture I. Dr. Deming’s System of Profound Knowledge…and its applications )

Oct. 16, 1515-1700 in Chinese Society for Quality, Taipei.

Lecture II: Statistical Thinking and Psychology and Actions

Oct. 17, 2008, Tunghai University, Taichung, Taiwan

Lecture III: Systems Thinking and Knowledge

Oct 18, 2008,
Tunghai University, Taichung, Taiwan

Host

Tunghai University, Taiwan

Co-host

Chinese Society for Quality, Taiwan


Eilogue


Appendix

An Brief Account of My Study Life in Tunghai University(1971-75) and Essex University (1977-78), including Some Advices on Studying in U. K.

In Memory of Six Unforgettable Teachers in Tunghai


Index





A Story of Tunghai Deming Scholar Lectures 2008

( by Hanching Chung)

This week’s Lecture Series is a story of three-generation teacher-student interactions in USA and Taiwan.

Bill told us that he first met Dr. Deming the fall of 1972 at New York Universitys Graduate Business School.

Our Taiwanese Deming Circle has reached its 44-year-mark since Dr. Deming’s letters to late Mr. Liu Cheng in 1964 for the translating and updating of “Dr. Deming’s Lectures on Statistical Control of Quality” in Japan 1950.

One line in Dr.Deming’s International Activities listed in The W. Edwards Deming Institute® website (biography) as follows,

“Consultant to the China Productivity Center, Taiwan, 1970, 1971”

http://deming.org/

Many people in the CPC that time were highly involved in the establishments of the Industrial Engineering Department of Tunghai University and the Chinese Society for Quality Control. This is the background we have these lectures this week in CSQ and in Tunghai.

We translated and published Bill’s two books in 1996. We met Bill Taipei in 2006 and made good friends.

We were thrilled to hear that Bill will work in Taipei from January 2008.

We were very grateful for Bill to promise to deliver Tunghai Deming Scholar Lectures 2008 early July and HanChing Chung wrote “A Note” for it, and Bill set the theme of this year lecture series: Profound Knowledge.

A Note”

The purpose of Tunghai Deming Scholar Lectures 2008 is to to foster understanding of The Deming System of Profound Knowledge™ to advance commerce, prosperity and peace in Taiwan, so that Taiwan can maintain its leading role in various fields.. The Lectures are sponsored by a group of friends of Mr. Hanching Chung who like to dedicate it in the memory of some of his deceased teachers and friends of Tunghai University, honoring the memory of their Tunghai Days. We particular like to express our thanks to Mr. William W. Scherkenbach ‘s kindness to agree to deliver the lectures.

It is easy to cite the praises from the presses about Dr. Deming’s legacy. A few samples for your reference. .In 2005 BBC Radio 4 there is an episode “Do It Like Deming” (July 03, 2005 Business on the box ) In Fortune Magazine’s 75th Anniversary( July, 2005) special section of “20 That Made History”in last 150 years, ”Dr. Deming 1950”was among one of the key historical decisions. Dr. Deming was also one of “The 50: People Who Most Influenced Business This Century” (with General Douglas MacArthur, Oct,1999, the Los Angeles Times). Not to mention the well cited as one of the “revolutionary thinkers” of the history of Wikipedia article "U.S. News & World Report". (Oct. 10:52, 1991).

Unfortunately, most people’s understanding of Dr. Deming’s true legacy, Deming’s System of Profound Knowledge are still very limited and in many ways misleading. For example, I made a comment about the article “Red Bead Experiment” by Mr. Mike Johnson which claims his red beads kit is the original one and he “donated an original paddle and set of beads to the ASQ Organization to be displayed in their new headquarters building in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA. Information about this display is available in the Deming Newsletter dated Spring 2005..”(http://knol.google.com/k/mike-johnson/red-bead-experiment/3p1wt3p4nkpas/2#)

I suggest him to change the title to "a red beads kit for ASQ display" and as for the ASQ 2005 Display in Deming Newsletter, the readers should read the original report. Please visit. Deming Newsletter dated Spring 2005. http://deming.org/pdfs/DemingInteractionSpring2005.pdf

I also recommend readers to read Dr. Deming's books for the meaning of the game. The reason is very simple that we can easily trace the Red Bead Experiment at least since early 1950s in Dr. Deming’s Japan lectures and the texts of lectures in Taiwan in late 1960s.

It is obvious that Taiwan is a leading place for Dr. Deming’s teachings thanks to many pioneers of productivity and quality movement since 1950s. In fact, this 2008 Tunghai Deming Scholar Lectures are dedicated to some leading advocates and contributors during past half century.

We are most lucky to invite Mr. William W. Scherkenbach as our speaker. We published his two masterpieces (”Deming’s Road to Continual Improvement” and ”The Deming Route to Quality and Productivity: Road Maps and Roadblocks”, both with Dr. Deming’s most favorable forewords) in 1996 and ever since then Bill become one of our honorable Taiwanese friends. He now works as the Vice President Quality Management, Six Sigma and Best Practices for Liteon Technology Corporation.

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