「華人戴明學院」是戴明哲學的學習共同體 ,致力於淵博型智識系統的研究、推廣和運用。 The purpose of this blog is to advance the ideas and ideals of W. Edwards Deming.

2009年6月30日 星期二

談專業顧問:從統計研究、組織經營之顧問師 戴明博士的履歷書說起

WSJ: Do you think an MBA is important?

Mr. Chheda: You can't get nuts-and-bolts skills at educational institutions. That said, getting an MBA is a great way to prepare or enhance a career in business, and I'd strongly encourage it to anyone who is considering. However, I'd tell them to first go out and get substantial work experience. You can learn so much more in your academic program if you come into it with more context.


Good service must not follow GM's road to ruin
guardian.co.uk - UK
Peter Drucker, the discipline's first and most respected chronicler, wrote the seminal Concept of the Corporation after observing the company for two years ...
See all stories on this topic

Alan Sugar

英國的「政府企業顧問」又稱「企業沙皇」,新沙皇是62歲的舒格,他並非是工黨迷,在1992年曾投書倫敦金融時報表示:「某個名叫戈登‧布朗的先生,指 控我在經濟衰退時期發橫財,這話我聽了覺得惡心。我可不曉得這位布朗先生是何方神聖,恕我無知。不管他是誰,他都沒有好好做功課,這位老兄不知道自己在說 什麼。」


舒格出身倫敦東區一個猶太裁縫家庭,16歲輟學,用100英鎊積蓄開廂型車兜售汽車天線和錄音機,但他努力上進,成年後創辦幾家科技公司,並從事科技投 資,2007年出售英國天空廣播公司(BSkyB),2008年成為泰晤士報英國富翁榜第92名,目前身價約8億英鎊(約新台幣 417億元)。

舒格後來主持英國版「誰是接班人」(The Apprentice),聲名更盛,節目主持人那句Your're fired(你被開除了),幾乎人人耳熟能詳。

Sir Alan Sugar, 16th November 2005

Alan Sugar brought his knowledgeable, straightforward, wise yet witty business perspective to an Oxford audience of over 300 people on Wednesday 16th November 2005 during a question and answer session which he generously allowed to run over time.

Sir Alan asserted that “There’s nothing stopping anybody in this country from doing exactly what I have done; it’s no secret that I started with absolutely nothing” he started his business with £100 in post office savings which purchased a van for £50, motor insurance for £8 and £42 in stock. Accordingly, he had little sympathy for complaints about banks or venture capitalists and reminded the audience that banks are businesses and that “most ideas are totally useless and there are no free lunches” he compared the investor sentiments of the “dotcom boom to a phenomenon that lasted for about five and a half minutes” and advised fledgling entrepreneurs to start small. Sugar explained that he was originally motivated by a desire for self sufficiency and his inspirations included his “Uncle John, because he was the only person I knew that had a business, I came from a working class background with family who lived on council estates, business was completely alien…and when I decided to start in business, he was my guru, if you like, and all he had was a corner shop in Victoria.” Alan Sugar’s inspirations today include Rupert Murdoch for his qualities as a “speculator, gambler and a maverick” and he admires Branson, he conceded to the Oxford audience that “his style of doing business is completely different to mine but it’s successful.” Sugar disclosed his thoughts about ‘entrepreneurship’ in general, indicating his dismay at the misuse of the word ‘entrepreneurship’ as a descriptive word for people who would otherwise be described as ‘enterprising’ or ‘business oriented’; he viewed entrepreneurial traits as inherent and akin to those of an accomplished concert pianist or artist.

Sugar offered amusingly dry responses to various questions; his response to a protest from an audience member about whether business has to be dominated by targets, profit and money was “Yes, it all has to be about money and targets” to lecture theatre laughter. Sir Alan later betrayed the fact that he wishes he had re-directed energies spent on managing Tottenham Football Club to charitable causes such as Great Ormond Street Children’s Hospital. The football club was sold by Alan Sugar for a gross profit of approximately £30 Million - he advised the audience to “stick to what you know” and to have a good knowledge of the sector areas in which they choose to do business. On the subject of human resources he joked that “everybody is dispensable” and later explained via an anecdote about early entrepreneurial experiences with an engineer who perceived himself as pivotal and ‘indispensable’ to Sugar’s businesses. Sir Alan provided a humorous diatribe around his views of ‘management consultants’ and then proceeded to discuss global technology and manufacturing considerations, teasing the Oxford audience by playfully suggesting that they probably had “management consultant” aspirations. The vast majority of the audience were members of Oxford Entrepreneurs, the largest student society of its kind in the UK.

A student enquired whether an Oxford presence on The Apprentice (TV programme) was long overdue, especially in the light of a Harvard candidate on the American version of the TV show, Sir Alan responded “…Well you can apply for The Apprentice next time around with the other 10,000 people…we mustn’t make any special favours because I’m here this evening”

As GM Goes So Goes California in Pensions: Roger Lowenstein
Bloomberg - USA
But observers such as Peter Drucker, then a young consultant, wondered what would happen if GM's business turned south while its pension obligation remained ...

There’s plenty of blame to go around these days. But the prime villains behind the mess we’re in were Reagan and his circle of advisers — men who forgot the lessons of America’s last great financial crisis, and condemned the rest of us to repeat it.

TAIPEI -(Dow Jones)- The Taiwanese government plans to choose a consultant as early as July for a casino resort development on Taiwan's outlying islands, ...

charlatan, guru

He also said people only called him a guru because they weren't sure how to spell "charlatan".

荷蘭文Management goeroe Peter Drucker zei het ooit eens tegen mij toen ik nog in San Francisco woonde : je moet nooit een voorspelling doen. ...

He cited Peter Drucker, one of the 20th century's finest business thinkers: "Often we use the word guru because the word charlatan is too long. .

The Hippocratic Oath: Modern Version

I swear to fulfill, to the best of my ability and judgment, this covenant:

I will respect the hard-won scientific gains of those physicians in whose steps I walk, and gladly share such knowledge as is mine with those who are to follow.

I will apply, for the benefit of the sick, all measures [that] are required, avoiding those twin traps of overtreatment and therapeutic nihilism.

I will remember that there is art to medicine as well as science, and that warmth, sympathy, and understanding may outweigh the surgeon's knife or the chemist's drug.

I will not be ashamed to say "I know not," nor will I fail to call in my colleagues when the skills of another are needed for a patient's recovery.

I will respect the privacy of my patients, for their problems are not disclosed to me that the world may know. Most especially must I tread with care in matters of life and death. If it is given me to save a life, all thanks. But it may also be within my power to take a life; this awesome responsibility must be faced with great humbleness and awareness of my own frailty. Above all, I must not play at God.

I will remember that I do not treat a fever chart, a cancerous growth, but a sick human being, whose illness may affect the person's family and economic stability. My responsibility includes these related problems, if I am to care adequately for the sick.

I will prevent disease whenever I can, for prevention is preferable to cure.

I will remember that I remain a member of society, with special obligations to all my fellow human beings, those sound of mind and body as well as the infirm.

If I do not violate this oath, may I enjoy life and art, respected while I live and remembered with affection thereafter. May I always act so as to preserve the finest traditions of my calling and may I long experience the joy of healing those who seek my help.

Original, translated into English:[3]

I swear by Apollo, Asclepius, Hygieia, and Panacea, and I take to witness all the gods, all the goddesses, to keep according to my ability and my judgment, the following Oath.

To consider dear to me, as my parents, him who taught me this art; to live in common with him and, if necessary, to share my goods with him; To look upon his children as my own brothers, to teach them this art.

I will prescribe regimens for the good of my patients according to my ability and my judgment and never do harm to anyone.

I will not give a lethal drug to anyone if I am asked, nor will I advise such a plan; and similarly I will not give a woman a pessary to cause an abortion.

But I will preserve the purity of my life and my arts.

I will not cut for stone, even for patients in whom the disease is manifest; I will leave this operation to be performed by practitioners, specialists in this art.

In every house where I come I will enter only for the good of my patients, keeping myself far from all intentional ill-doing and all seduction and especially from the pleasures of love with women or with men, be they free or slaves.

All that may come to my knowledge in the exercise of my profession or in daily commerce with men, which ought not to be spread abroad, I will keep secret and will never reveal.

If I keep this oath faithfully, may I enjoy my life and practice my art, respected by all men and in all times; but if I swerve from it or violate it, may the reverse be my lot.

希波克拉提斯宣言(The Hippocratic Oath) @ 海天醫院:: 痞客邦PIXNET ::准許我進入醫業時:




無論何適何遇,逢男或女,貴人奴婢,余之唯一目的,為病家謀幸福,並檢點吾身,不為各種害人及劣行,尤不做誘姦之事。凡余之所見所聞,不論有無業務 之牽連,余以為應守秘密者,願保守秘密。倘余嚴守上述之誓詞,願神僅僅使余之生命及醫術,得無上之光榮;余苟違誓,天地鬼神共殛之!


  1. 我鄭重地保證自己要奉獻一切為人類服務。
  2. 我將要給我的師長應有的崇敬及感戴;
  3. 我將要憑我的良心和尊嚴從事醫業;
  4. 病人的健康應為我的首要的顧念;
  5. 我將要尊重所寄託給我的秘密;
  6. 我將要盡我的力量維護醫業的榮譽和高尚的傳統;
  7. 我的同業應視為我的手足;
  8. 我將不容許有任何宗教,國籍,種族,政見或地位的考慮介於我的職責和病人間;
  9. 我將要盡可能地維護人的生命,自從受胎時起;
  10. 即使在威脅之下,我將不運用我的醫學知識去違反人道。
  11. 我鄭重地,自主地並且以我的人格宣誓以上的約定。-----------日內瓦宣言


希波克拉提斯宣言(The Hippocratic Oath)

希波克拉提斯(Hippocrates,B.C.460 - 377,享年 93歲 )出生於寇斯島(Kos)。希波克拉提斯直接傳承了愛斯科勒皮歐斯對病患盡心盡力救助的仁愛胸懷(古希臘 神話的名醫,Asklepios, 由於救人無數致使人間擁擠、冥界空盪,因而遭受處死之罰),但又自創個人的思想體系。愛斯科勒皮歐斯對希波克拉提斯的影響相當大,希波克拉提斯特別強調「不可傷人乃為醫師之天職」,這個理 念也成為醫學倫理觀最主要的中心思想。

I SWEAR by Apollo the physician, and Aesculapius, and Health, and All-heal, and all the gods and goddesses, that, according to my ability and judgment, I will keep this Oath and this stipulation to reckon him who taught me this Art equally dear to me as my parents, to share my substance with him, and relieve his necessities if required; to look upon his offspring in the same footing as my own brothers, and to teach them this art, if they shall wish to learn it, without fee or stipulation; and that by precept, lecture, and every other mode of instruction, I will impart a knowledge of the Art to my own sons, and those of my teachers, and to disciples bound by a stipulation and oath according to the law of medicine, but to none others. I will follow that system of regimen which, according to my ability and judgment, I consider for the benefit of my patients, and abstain from whatever is deleterious and mischievous. I will give no deadly medicine to any one if asked, nor suggest any such counsel; and in like manner I will not give to a woman a pessary to produce abortion. With purity and with holiness I will pass my life and practice my Art. I will not cut persons laboring under the stone, but will leave this to be done by men who are practitioners of this work. Into whatever houses I enter, I will go into them for the benefit of the sick, and will abstain from every voluntary act of mischief and corruption; and, further from the seduction of females or males, of freemen and slaves. Whatever, in connection with my professional practice or not, in connection with it, I see or hear, in the life of men, which ought not to be spoken of abroad, I will not divulge, as reckoning that all such should be kept secret. While I continue to keep this Oath unviolated, may it be granted to me to enjoy life and the practice of the art, respected by all men, in all times! But should I trespass and violate this Oath, may the reverse be my lot!

Hippocrates, Works trans., Francis Adams (New York; Loeb) vol. I, 299-301.


Deming 喜歡談類似的清潔問題


大家可能都已知道,日前美國彭博通訊社(Bloomberg News Service)廣泛報導一則新聞,指稱讀者文摘公司聘用一家專門處理破產與重整案的Kirkland & Ellis 法律事務所。其他的新聞媒體以此為本,在未經證實的情況下又添加各種臆測之詞。於是,從一個據稱「熟悉內幕」而又未能確實的消息來源開始,部分報導遽下斷 語,認定讀者文摘公司將聲請破產。


真實的情況是讀者文摘公司主動聘用聲譽卓著、 提供各種企業營運顧問服務的 Kirkland & Ellis 法律事務所,以及頂尖的財務顧問公司Miller Buckfire,希望就組織改造與財務管理等方面獲得廣泛的意見。面對全球經濟情勢異常艱困的時期,我們希望能借助最優秀的顧問團隊,以確保本公司能做 好最佳準備,獲得最好的意見。他們將協助本公司研究新的營運策略──包括(但非侷限於)籌措資金與減輕債務壓力──以期在市場上掌控先機。



Mary Berner
President and CEO
The Reader's Digest Association, Inc.

The Consultant's Scorecard: Tracking Results and Bottom-Line Impact of Consulting Projects

Start reading The Consultant's Scorecard on your Kindle in under a minute.

Don’t have a Kindle? Get yours here.

The Consultant's Scorecard: Tracking Results and Bottom-Line Impact of Consulting Projects (Hardcover)

by Jack Phillips (Author) "THE CONSULTING BUSINESS has enjoyed tremendous success during the past two decades, with its growth exceeding that of many professions..." (more)

The Consultant's Scorecard: Tracking Results and Bottom-Line Impact of Consulting Projects

by Jack Phillips

With my sister this zealousness manifests itself during Passover cleaning. It’s forbidden to have even one crumb of hametz (basically any leavened product) loose in your house during the holiday week. For her (with a brood of five) this means stripping the place to the studs, and a kitchen sterile enough both for brain surgery and a certifiably kosher matzo-ball soup. The only way to get it cleaner would be to burn the place down.

Viewing 10 results out of 606.



不過,顧問業是個很古老的行業,譬如說,【舊約】中摩西的岳父,很顯然就是個顧問(J. M. Juran的「管理三部曲」,p.51)。 現在,它是一小”產業” 。諸如ASQ說法, 光是lean- six sigma就有二千多人【台灣戴明圈,p.134】。
---談專業顧問:從統計研究、組織經營之顧問師 戴明博士的履歷書說起"

« 摘要

第 473 頁
My annual fee will be stated at the outset. 6. I will put in enough time to satisfy myself. 7. I will continue beyond three years if in my judgment further ...


Flawed Advice and the Management Trap How Managers Can Know When They're Getting Good Advice and When They're Not Chris Argyris


Flawed Advice and the Management Trap: How Managers Can Know When They're Getting Good Advice and When They're Not is the first book to show how and why so much of today's business advice is flawed, and how managers and executives can better evaluate advice given to their firms

Practitioners and scholars agree that businesses in the coming millennium will be managed differently than firms of the 20th century. And getting there from here, according to today's best advice, will require creative change. In this pioneering work, Argyris, one of the world's leading organizational thinkers, reviews a wide array of business advice from the best and brightest thinkers and consultants and concludes that as appealing as their ideas may be, most of them are simply not workable. They are too full of abstract claims, logical gaps, and inconsistencies, to be useful. And ironically, even when their recommendations are implemented correctly, the result is often failure. Why do these gaps in logic exist, and how can they be more effectively discovered? Applying a disciplined critique to numerous representative examples of advice about leadership, learning, change, and employee commitment, Argyris shows readers how to be more critical of the advice they are given, how to learn new approaches for appraising employee performance, and how to generate an internal commitment to values and better strategy.

In our ever expanding global market, innovative business advice is at a premium, and giving this advice has become a lucrative industry in and of itself. This book provides the critical lens necessary to evaluate which advice is best for your organization.


Accounting, auditing, and bookkeeping services (SIC 8721 ...
The Enron bankruptcy, that resulted in the demise of Big Five accounting firm
Arthur Andersen in 2002 was followed by admissions of fraudulent accounting by

Mckinsey’s Marvin Bower: Vision, Leadership, And the Creation of Management Consulting


Marvin Bower

Apr 3rd 2009
From Economist.com

For many years the management consulting business was dominated by one firm. It advised the world’s biggest corporations and some of its biggest countries about high-level strategy. So outstanding was it that it became known simply as “The Firm”. That firm, McKinsey, was the creation of one man. Not James O. McKinsey, the man whose name hangs over its front door (and who died young of pneumonia in 1937), but Marvin Bower (born 1903), the most powerful influence on the firm in the 65 years from James McKinsey’s death to his own, at the age of 99, in 2003.

Bower modelled the consultancy on the lines of a professional law firm, establishing a set of values by which it was to be guided. For example, clients’ interests were supposed to have precedence over growth in the firms’ revenues. His approach to consulting was heavily influenced by the legal profession, which had been his first choice of career. After studying at Harvard Law School he applied to work for a firm in Cleveland, where he had been raised. But his grades were not good enough, so he went back to the then young Harvard Business School, gained an MBA and returned to a job with the law firm as a corporate lawyer.

In 1933 he joined McKinsey’s fledgling firm when its only office was in Chicago. He then set up a branch in New York and, after McKinsey’s death, helped rebuild the company around its New York operation. He was managing director from 1950 to 1967. Business Week said of Bower that he was “the very image of America’s ‘Organisation Man’ in the 1950s … immaculately dressed in a Brooks Brothers dark suit, a starched white shirt, and a hat”. For years he insisted that McKinsey consultants wear hats. He was also famously outspoken and not afraid to confront clients. A colleague once recalled an occasion when he bellowed out, “The problem with this company, Mr Little, is you.” “It happened to be totally accurate,” added the colleague. “That was the end of our work with that client. But it didn’t bother Marvin.”

Bower often turned down clients when he did not believe that they were prepared for change. He declined to work for Howard Hughes, for example, and refused to help the American government devise a scheme to bail out American Motors, a car company.

If you looked after the client, the profits would look after themselves.

McKinsey’s approach to its work—offering high-level strategic advice—has left it vulnerable to the criticism that it does not stick around to follow through the consequences of that advice. It has a reputation for arrogance, sometimes explained away as a manifestation of total concentration on its clients. The Economist once wrote of an ex-member of the firm: “He suffers the lack of self-doubt common in former McKinsey consultants.”

Several of Bower’s alumni became famous in their own right, such as Tom Peters (see article), Kenichi Ohmae and Richard Pascale (see article). Even the next generation of management gurus seems to have benefited from a spell at the Firm. Both Donald Sull and Pankaj Ghemawat worked for McKinsey before moving on to academic careers.

Notable publication

“The Will to Manage: Corporate Success through Programmed Management”, McGraw-Hill, 1966


英国《金融时报》拉斐尔•曼代(By Raphael Minder in Hong Kong)香港报道 2009-03-30




参与撰写这份研究报告的麦肯锡咨询师埃文•欧阳(Evan Auyung)说:“中国虽然拥有丰富的中央计划经验,但在如何以最有效方式分配如此巨额投资方面则面临挑战,在迫切需要发展基础设施并保持稳定增长时尤其如此。”


“中国确实在努力加快建设,以创造就业岗位,因此新增机场吞吐能力几乎肯定会超过需求,”万事达卡国际组织(MasterCard)跟踪亚太区经济 发展的王月魂(Yuwa Hedrick-Wong)说。他拿上海浦东机场进行了对照,浦东机场“几乎空了四、五年”后,才确立了国际航空枢纽的地位。




航空咨询公司Ascend的首席经济学家彼得•莫里斯(Peter Morris)对麦肯锡报告表示谨慎赞同:“庞大、闪亮的机场会被地方政府视为成功的标志。”Ascend总部位于伦敦。



IRVING, Texas - (Business Wire) Thomas Group, Inc. (NasdaqGM:TGIS), a global operations management consulting firm, introduced the firm’s PI Max™ assessment tool to the Aviation Electronics Association meeting in Dallas today as an alternative to slashing headcount and spending. “Layoff is not synonymous with efficiency,” said Mark Ozenick, the firm’s practice leader for the aerospace and defense segment. “It’s not too soon to start thinking about coming out of the recession leaner, stronger and structured to win more market share and earn better profit margins. But slashing in a panic is not the way to do that.”

“Now may be the best of all times to implement meaningful change,” Ozenick argued. “It is in the middle of crisis that barriers can be eliminated more easily. When the alternative is adapt or go onto the shop floor and hand out pink slips, managers will come around to new ways of thinking. That’s why the consultant’s role is highly relevant now, and why we recommend to clients as a first step applying a maturity model to determine the extent to which Lean and Six Sigma processes are truly embraced across the company.” He noted that Thomas Group’s proprietary PI Max assessment tool consists of 25 maturity elements to identify key improvement levers.

Many companies have extensive Six Sigma organizations, but are using the wrong metrics to measure success, he said. “In our experience, the sheer number of black belts directed at a problem is not an indicator of success. Often the wrong tools are employed in the improvement process, and sometimes the right tools fail when applied only to a single functional silo within a complex organization. Indeed, 42 percent of business leaders in the U.S. and Europe have said that their change management programs in the past five years have failed.”

As an example of Thomas Group’s success in implementing a more holistic assessment, and identifying the right levers for improvement, the company cited the firm’s assistance to one of the world’s largest and most complex organizations—the U.S. Department of Defense and specifically, the U.S. Navy.

DoD is effective, but not always efficient. When Thomas Group began working with the DoD, many silos existed. Thomas Group showed them how to align around critical processes that produce readiness—the key yardstick for the Navy. The next step was in helping the Navy integrate these processes into corporate-like enterprise governance structures that owned all the costs associated with producing readiness. As with a lot of clients, Thomas Group didn’t work with the Navy to teach them Six Sigma principles. Instead, in working with the DoD, Thomas Group conducted analyses of process effectiveness and of the change management tools in use. Thomas Group’s contribution was to help the Navy select the correct management tools, install the best governance methodology and use the right process metrics to drive change.

The company further noted that over a five year period, aviation readiness improved markedly, ship maintenance costs decreased and the Navy as a whole obtained a financial improvement equivalent to the purchase price of a new aircraft carrier.

“The consultant’s role in driving corporate change is more critical in challenging economic conditions,” Ozenick said. “Growth hides a multitude of sins. Inefficiencies and unnecessary turf battles become much more glaring in a period of contraction. That’s why our message to corporate leaders is simple—seize this opportunity to make your organizations leaner and stronger (as opposed to thinner and weaker), and prepare for the opportunities to come,” Ozenick added.

For more information visit: http://www.thomasgroup.com/enterprise-solutions/tools/Continuous-Process-Improvement.aspx

About Thomas Group

Thomas Group, Inc. (NasdaqGM:TGIS) is an international, publicly-traded professional services firm specializing in operational improvements. Thomas Group's unique brand of process improvement and performance management services enable businesses to enhance operations, improve productivity and quality, reduce costs, generate cash and drive higher profitability. Known for Breakthrough Process Performance, Thomas Group creates and implements customized improvement strategies for sustained performance improvements in all facets of the business enterprise. Thomas Group has offices in Dallas and Detroit. For more information, please visit www.thomasgroup.com.


By Raphael Minder in Hong Kong 2009-03-30

China risks misallocating investment by overspending on airport projects in poorer western provinces and skimping on allocations to some fast-growing coastal provinces in its $70bn plan to expand capacity until 2013, according to a study by McKinsey, the consultancy.

Of the 97 greenfield airport projects planned by Beijing until 2020, McKinsey categorises only 20 to 30 as offering “attractive” investment opportunities by addressing expected capacity shortfalls.

Other projects support political aims to spread development inland ahead of actual demand.

Evan Auyung, one of the consultants who wrote the McKinsey study, said: “As experienced as China is at central planning, there is a challenge for China now to allocate such huge investments in the most efficient manner, especially given the urgency of infrastructure development and the need to keep growth on track.”

McKinsey would not detail its airport-by-airport analysis but cited Shandong, a rapidly developing north-eastern province close to South Korea, as an area where planned capacity appeared to fall short of expected demand.

“China is really trying to speed up construction to create jobs, so additional airport supply will almost certainly outpace demand,” said Yuwa Hedrick-Wong, who tracks Asian economic developments for MasterCard. He draws a parallel with Shanghai's Pudong airport, which stood “almost empty for four or five years” before establishing itself as an international hub.

“In other countries, such projects would die if they failed to produce a quick return but, in the case of China, they can sustain them,” he said.

Beijing has reasserted authority over airport planning after a spate of construction projects by ambitious local authorities in the early 1990s that were under-utilised and duplicative.

But as part of the new development plan, Beijing has devolved most of the responsibility for financing projects to regional authorities. Out of $70bn of planned investment, McKinsey estimates that less than 5 per cent will come directly from the central government.

Peter Morris, London-based chief economist at Ascend, an aviation consultancy, expressed cautious support. “A big shiny airport can be seen by regional authorities as a totem pole of success,” he said.

Aside from the new airports, Beijing is embarking on 46 big airport expansions.

Type: Subsidiary
On the web: http://www.janes.com

Put away the cloak and dagger. Jane's has the intelligence you crave - without your having to resort to spying. Jane's Information Group is a print and electronic publisher of defense and security information (handbooks, magazines, summaries, and other publications) for global military, government, and corporate decision-makers, as well as academics. The company uses independent sources (journalists, researchers, correspondents) to gather its intelligence. Jane's online catalogs are available in Chinese, Japanese, Korean, and Russian, in addition to English. Jane's also offers consulting services in such areas as security threats and risk assessment. It is a subsidiary of technical document publisher IHS.

Managing Director: Michael Dell
CFO: Michael Staton
Head of Corporate Communications: Paul Duke

Haynes Publishing
Strategic Forecasting


Six Sigma Consultant - Andrew Milivojevich Awarded "Fellow" Status by ASQ Board of Directors

Mississauga, Ontario - The Knowledge Management Group is pleased to announce that Six Sigma Consultant - Andrew Milivojevich has been awarded "Fellow" status by the board of directors of The American Society for Quality (ASQ). In being elected Fellow, Andrew Milivojevich is being recognized as having achieved professional distinction and pre-eminence in the technology, theory, education, application, or management of quality. As President of The Knowledge Management Group, Andrew Milivojevich leads its Six Sigma, business intelligence, business re-engineering, productivity improvement and productivity improvement and business process management engagements.

"An ASQ Fellow is an individual who has an established record of contributions, both to the quality profession and to the Society. The grade of Fellow is an earned distinction. The achievement of this status is a symbol of respect from colleagues that has been accepted by the highest officers of our organization," says ASQ President Roberto Saco.

Andrew Milivojevich received Fellow membership status for his exemplary work advancing quality and Six Sigma in Corporate Canada; for being a champion of innovation through statistical methods to resolve technical uncertainties in the Canadian business community; and for being a vocal promoter for quality and Six Sigma through the Canadian federal government's Scientific Research and Experimental Development tax incentive program.

Andrew Milivojevich is an authority in Six Sigma and productivity improvement. He has over 20 years of experience and has provided leadership, direction, vision, and fostered an environment of improvement for a number of large organizations. Andrew Milivojevich is a published author, speaker and lecturer on productivity improvement, statistical experimental design and Six Sigma. He is a Professional Engineer and maintains certification with ASQ as a Quality Engineer and Six Sigma Black Belt. Andrew Milivojevich is a graduate advisor to the College of Engineering's Centre for Quality and Applied Statistics at the Rochester Institute of Technology. He is an instructor with the Schulich Executive Education Centre at York University in Toronto and the program creator and instructor in Applied Innovation and Productivity Improvement at the School of Continuing Studies at the University of Toronto. Andrew Milivojevich is also a science consultant to Revenue Canada's Scientific Research and Experimental Development program. He received an Engineering Degree from Ryerson Polytechnic University Canada, and a Masters Degree in Statistics from the College of Engineering, Rochester Institute of Technology, USA. Andrew Milivojevich is currently the President of The Knowledge Management Group responsible for Six Sigma, business intelligence, business re-engineering, productivity improvement and business process management.

The Knowledge Management Group is an authority in business process improvement. The Knowledge Management Group enhances organizational learning that advances corporate knowledge to resolve problems and improve productivity, business performance and corporate culture. The Knowledge Management Group offers technologies, concepts, tools, coaching and training to management, technical professionals and staff. To learn more visit www.tkmg.org or call 888-964-7729.


2009年 04月 15日 08:40




因此﹐許多投資者越來越不願意信任專家也不足為奇。根據市場研究機構Prince & Associates Inc.的數據﹐目前持有投資資金超過100萬美元的投資者中﹐超過四分之三的人都打算從他們的財務顧問那裡撤資﹐超過半數的人計劃炒顧問的魷魚。



Stephen Webster



高淨值投資者社交網站Wealth Management Exchange的創始人庫玻(Wayne Cooper)說﹐你應該像個雇主一樣想問題﹐查看你未來財務顧問的犯罪紀錄和監管紀錄﹐以及他們以前雇主的證明材料。


紐約證券律師布魯內爾(George Brunelle)說﹐一個有辨別力的人不會只看顧問是否有被投訴的經歷。他建議要看與客戶爭端、欺詐或頻密買賣(過度買入賣出證券)的相關投訴。投資者應當重點關注那些導致重大仲裁的嚴重爭端。



一 名財務顧問過去和現在總會有一些生活狀況和你類似的客戶﹐要求查看這些客戶的證明可能會有所幫助。在和這些客戶交談時﹐記得要問的詳細具體。顧問和他們聯 繫的頻率怎樣﹖顧問是否承認犯下錯誤﹖他們隔多久會評估與顧問的投資目標﹖他們和顧問的關係是否曾讓他們驚喜或是失望﹖這位顧問是否在牛市和熊市都表現出 色﹖顧問的人品怎樣﹖

康涅狄格諮詢機構RayLign Advisory LLC創始人兼總裁羅傑斯(Greg Rogers)說﹐然後你再問問這些客戶﹐想辦法得到那位顧問沒有提到的其他客戶的評價。他說﹐試圖從顧問那裡找到其他人的評價。如果你能獲得間接評價﹐就能得到更有用的信息。


知道顧問的薪酬情況有助於你判別他是否符合你的最佳利益。Tiger 21的共同創始人索內菲爾特(Sonnenfeldt)說﹐這和去逛服裝店沒什麼不同──當推銷員說你看上去好极了的時候﹐你該知道他們是想賣給你衣服。

財 務顧問們有著各種繁多的薪酬結構。他們可能會從銷售的證券那裡得到佣金﹔可能收取管理費﹐固定的或是按照為你管理資產的比例收取﹔可能按照小時收費﹔或是 包括以上所有方式。詳細詢問顧問他們的工作方式以及為你管理投資組合的總體收費情況。索內菲爾特說﹐如果一名顧問不肯坦誠透明地回答這些問題﹐那麼你就得 小心了。

你還要問到利益衝突的問題。舉例說﹐如果顧問是按佣金收費的﹐那麼你就該問問他們公司的佣金收費表﹐看看他們是否只有數目有限的 產品或服務可以推薦﹐詢問其中的原因。如果他們不能為有限的選擇給出合理解釋﹐那這就是個警告信號。與此同時﹐如果顧問按照資產比例收費﹐那你該記住他們 有可能會建議你進行可能令投資資產減少的舉動﹐例如慈善捐助或是購買新房。你還應該小心那些管理費超過資產的1%或是2%的財務顧問。


Stephen Webster
馬 多夫醜聞中最突出的警告信號就是缺乏制約與平衡。馬多夫的客戶填寫支票或通過匯款向Bernard L. Madoff Securities投資﹐並從這家公司得到證明。該公司的會計行Friehling & Horowitz只有一名註冊會計師﹐而且只在紐約新城設有一家店面。美國證券交易委員會(SEC)在一份指控文件中說﹐馬多夫的投資者完全依靠這家公司 來驗證交易的真實性。

在購買投資時﹐應確保將支票開給富達投資(Fidelity Investments Co.)或嘉信理財(Charles Schwab & Co.)這樣的第三方托管人, 而不是直接開給你的財務顧問。Wealth Management Exchange的庫玻說﹐這樣一來﹐財務顧問可以根據我的指示做出買進決定﹐卻不能捲走我的錢。




不過要注意﹐財務顧問收介紹費的情況並不少見。企業諮詢和調查公司Corporate Resolutions Inc.的總裁斯普林格(Ken Springer)說﹐只要他們披露誰拿到錢、並說明他們為什麼要推薦某家特定的理財公司就可以了。



比 如你可以問﹕有多少客戶的收益超過他們的基準或與目標一致﹖類似我這樣的客戶在衰退期間收益如何﹖你是否可以把你的所有客戶放在一個投資組合里﹐然後告訴 我總的投資組合的業績﹖記得短期(1年)和長期(10年以上)記錄都要問到﹐並問問你的顧問﹐他是採用絕對回報還是相對於大盤市場表現的相對回報來評估業 績。

其次﹐利用財務顧問的業績記錄來弄清楚他們是如何做決定的。RayLign Advisory的羅傑斯說﹐你可以問到業績表現﹐但你真正希望瞭解的是這位顧問作決策的過程。




6. 顧問能把它寫下來嗎﹖

針 對財務顧問要提供的服務以及你要支付的費用提出要一份正式的書面概要。全美個人理財顧問協會(National Association of Personal Financial Advisors)首席執行長特夫(Ellen Turf)說﹐設定具體的預期﹐這樣你可以決定某位財務顧問是否要幫助你制定目標、制定預算或者只是做投資決策。



7. 其他人是什麼看法﹖




Shelly Banjo

***** 顧問兼發證書
The Lean Six Sigma Institute Opens for Business in Europe
PR-USA.net (press release) - Varna,Bulgaria
The Institute's Consultants also coach certification projects leading to the Lean Six Sigma Institute's own Diploma. General Manager Bob Gillespie said ...

2009年6月29日 星期一

三頭六臂集 649-659



口蜜腹劍: 雷化民回憶錄

口蜜腹劍: 雷化民回憶錄. 作者:雷化民/著;
出版社:一橋出版; 出版日期: 1998年08月10日;
語言: 繁體中文 ISBN: 9579845174;

口蜜腹劍 : 雷化民回憶錄,雷化民,網上購物,網上買書收藏

精彩的台灣職業訓練貢獻者 說明台灣政府 天主教會 官商勾結 外行人浪費資源 貪污舞弊


過去10年精實模範氅廠商 在經營上豪賭 終於失敗啦
Troubled Porsche drops request for federal loan

Troubled German luxury sports car maker says it's dropping plans to reapply
for a loan from state owned KfW bank. Meanwhile, Qatar has launched a
concrete offer to invest in Porsche.

The DW-WORLD Article


The Trouble with Performance Reviews
BusinessWeek - USA
As W. Edwards Deming, the father of the quality movement, taught a long time ago, company performance often results more from variations in systems than ...










讀者讀過戴明修練ii 可將此列入另一例子


台灣戴爾網站二十五日晚間出現十九吋LCD螢幕五百元、二十吋 LCD螢幕標價只賣九九九元,網友發現後在PTT、噗浪、推特、Mobile01等網站奔相走告,大批網友瘋狂下訂,有人一口氣線上刷卡狂訂兩千台,也有 不少人一刷數百台,戴爾昨發表聲明稿表示,正深入了解整體訂單狀況,將直接與顧客聯繫,會提供在這段期間下單的消費者合理折扣。






 去年十二月,中共中央台辦主任王毅宣佈加強兩岸合作應對金融危機十項措施。石定寰說,大陸方面建立的台資企業轉型升級服務團,同月在東莞開啟服 務行動,包括國家工程技術研究中心,國家重點實驗室、大學研究院所、金融等有關機構人士,從技術創新、轉移各方面協助台商應對挑戰。



  有些常委會委員和地方、部門提出,向社會公佈的政府統計資料應當客觀、真實,這裡規定的“ 協商一致”含義不清楚。

  全國人大法律委經同財經委和國務院法制辦、國家統計局研究認為,為避免出現政府統計機構和政府其他部門公佈的統計數據不一致,影響政府統計數據 公信力的情況,建議在修訂草案規定的國家統計數據以國家統計局公佈的數據為準的基礎上,將修訂草案中的上述規定修改為:政府有關部門統計調查取得的統計數 據,與本級人民政府統計機構統計調查取得的統計數據不一致的,不得公佈。





我是讀機率論的,文成教授是個統計學家( 應用機率論者 ),機率論經常涉及「獨立性」, 這是素人不太了解的概念。

若是變量X 與Y 相獨立,「請問: 已知X很大, 那麼是否統計上可以說Y比較可能也很大?」,我們告訴提問者:「不對」。他或她通常就自己推論說:(那麼就反方向,) 「統計上可以說Y 比較可能是小的。」

實際上獨立性是說:知道X很大,不能因而推測Y 可能也很大,也不能因而推測Y 可能小。Y與X不相干。......"

我們通常教孩子( 或學生):

不要相信命運! 命運是你自己決定的!





The New York Times
June 28, 2009
The Challenger from Taiwan


《中英對照讀新聞》Tokyo fights burglars with flower power 東京動用花兒力量打擊盜賊


A Tokyo district plagued with burglaries has turned to planting flowers to beautify its streets and help stamp out crime.


"’Operation Flower’ began about three years ago. By planting flowers facing the street, more people will be keeping an eye out while taking care of the flowers or watering them," said Kiyotaka Ohyagi, a Suginami City official. "The best way to prevent crime is to have more people on the lookout."


Suginami, with a population of 528,800, saw a record 1,710 break-ins in 2002.


When a neighbourhood watch group found that there were fewer burglaries in buildings on flower-lined streets, Suginami decided to kick off Operation Flower and asked volunteers to plant seeds on side streets and in front of their homes.


The flowers are part of a wider crime prevention campaign. The district also has 9,600 volunteer patrollers and 200 security cameras set up in areas where there are frequent break-ins. It also emails crime information daily to residents.


Suginami says its efforts have paid off, with the number of burglaries falling to 390 in 2008, down almost 80 percent from 2002.


2009年6月25日 星期四

歡送Bill Scherkenbach先生, GM case

歡送Bill Scherkenbach先生回美國

所以它算上週在天母請他的日本料理 他拿起相機照一次菜色

我打算請簡易晚餐 可能參加QKC
九點請他喝點酒 十點送他回旅館


6/24/2009 從台大後門搭計程車去 內湖植福路的金殿唯客多旅館找wws (2025)
NT. 250 很趕 (顧問 高鐵1804 竹北 1938就到台北 不過我忘記內湖線下周一才開通 轉了老半天 在南京東路搭TAXI 司機不載 因為他要知道確確地址才肯)
計程車司機(他也不知道路 不過有我說的美麗華就容易找) ㄧ路上叫我多吃素 要想參加他們ㄧ灌到最高級的三天半"研習" 可以看到我這種罪人般下地嶽之慘狀

GM: What Went Wrong and What's Next

Executive Summary:

For decades, General Motors reigned as the king of automakers. What went wrong? We asked HBS faculty to reflect on the wrong turns and missed opportunities of the former industry leader, and to suggest ideas for recovery. Key concepts include:

  • Formed in 1908, General Motors was the world's largest carmaker between 1931 and 2008.
  • GM filed for bankruptcy protection on June 1, 2009. In the bankruptcy petition, GM claimed slightly over $82 billion in assets and nearly $173 billion in debts.
  • GM's failure of leadership is astounding and ironic given its early history as an innovator, says HBS professor Nancy Koehn.
  • GM faces a unique opportunity to retool itself for the 21st century, says visiting scholar Daniel Heller. Meanwhile, the U.S. government administration is embarking on an interesting experiment in political economy, according to professor Joseph Bower.

Is there a light at the end of the tunnel for General Motors? Or are those just headlights from an oncoming train? Among Harvard Business School faculty, it depends on whom you ask.

The carmaker—home to such storied brands as Cadillac, Buick, and Chevrolet—enjoyed a 46 percent share of the American auto market in the 1950s. The industry leader, unbothered by competition and looming threats, began to coast on its former glory, however, and bypass such areas as consumer preferences and industry innovation. By February 2009, GM's market share sputtered and stalled at less than 19 percent. GM declared bankruptcy on June 1, 2009.

"All stakeholders must work together to make GM's bankruptcy filing a comma rather than a period in the storied history of this American corporate icon." -Daniel Heller

Its future appears uncertain at best—yet expensive nonetheless. The government has pledged $50 billion to the company, with no assurances American taxpayers will recoup any of that investment.

How should business leaders learn from this latest turning point? HBS faculty weigh in.

Daniel Snow, Assistant Professor of Business Administration:

GM will emerge from this crisis with a dramatically weakened portfolio of both current and future products. Although much attention has been focused on electric cars, hybrids, and fuel cells, I believe that the key player in the carbon-conscious automobile market of the next ten years is the compact car, especially one powered by a diesel engine. With very clean emissions, 60 and 70 MPG fuel consumption, and lots of power, diesel compacts would provide stiff competition to hybrids. But GM has just lost its ability to develop small cars with the sale of its Opel subsidiary to Canadian auto parts maker Magna International and the German government. This is a great deal for Magna, but terrible for Chevrolet. GM's best small cars are engineered (and some are manufactured) by Opel in Europe.

But it's not just about design and engineering. The supply chains and factory networks that provide these cars will need to be divided. GM's explicit strategy of the last decade has been to foster areas of specialization within its subsidiaries around the world—small cars in Europe, subcompacts in Asia, trucks and SUVs in North America—and this has started to yield great results. Now GM (of North America?) will be left with engineering competencies almost exclusively in those same large vehicles likely to be made obsolete by a new 35.5 MPG standard the Administration has promised to implement by 2016.

Daniel Heller, Visiting Scholar:

All stakeholders must work together to make GM's bankruptcy filing a comma rather than a period in the storied history of this American corporate icon. The U.S. cannot afford to lose the thousands of middle-class jobs of GM workers and management, nor the cutting edge R&D that GM does with its suppliers and partner universities. GM faces a unique opportunity to transform its assembly plants and R&D centers into more nimble operations that can sustain its renewed brands far into the 21st Century.

Nancy F. Koehn, James E. Robison Professor of Business Administration:

General Motors was formed in 1908, the same year Henry Ford brought out the first Model T, a car that launched the U.S. industry and revolutionized millions of Americans' lives. Riding the wave of the Model T's success, Ford Motor Company became the undisputed leader of this young market and by the early 1920s, it was producing 60 percent of all the motor vehicles manufactured in the United States and half of those made worldwide. All of these automobiles were Model Ts, offered in one color: black.

"Although there are many factors that contributed to the company's long, slow bleed, the three fundamental issues are management's consistent failure to do the very things that made the business so successful initially." -Nancy F. Koehn

What happened next was both pivotal in shaping the auto industry for much of the 20th century, and in the face of GM's bankruptcy announced recently, terribly ironic. Beginning in the mid 1920s, GM staged an astounding victory against Ford Motor Company. Alfred Sloan, Pierre Du Pont, and other GM executives placed a series of important bets on what American consumers wanted (different makes, models and prices; cars that were status symbols and identity holders as well as transportation sources) and they did so with careful, consistent attention to what the competition was—and was not—doing. As company leaders rolled out this daring strategy, they also created an organizational structure and culture developed to support a multi-product, vertically integrated enterprise. By the mid 1930s, GM's market share had risen to 42 percent while Ford's had fallen to 21 percent. And General Motors had laid the groundwork for decades of industry dominance, offering "a car for every purse and purpose" and pioneering the multidivisional structure that became one of the signal achievements of the modern corporation.

In this context, it is interesting to consider the root causes of General Motor's decline, which has been under way for 30 years. Although there are many factors that contributed to the company's long, slow bleed, the three fundamental issues are management's consistent failure to do the very things that made the business so successful initially.

  • First, pay close attention to what is happening to consumers' lives in the context of the larger environment—not only their stated preferences, but their hopes, dreams, wallets, lifestyles, and values.
  • Second, keep an equally close eye on the competition.
  • And third, understand how a company's structure and culture relate to its strategy. Use all this understanding to place innovative bets. This is what the early leaders of GM did. And this is what several generations of executives—beginning in the 1970s with the first oil shocks and the entrance of Japanese imports—have consistently failed to do.

It has been a failure of leadership as astounding and momentous (and ironic) as the company's early achievement.

Robert D. Austin, Associate Professor:

When I worked in a U.S. auto company in the mid 1990s, we were doing many of the right things. But often, when we ran up against the really tough problems, when we started to feel the real pain associated with real change, we pulled back. We were so profitable then, it was hard to muster the will to make the hard choices. Today, the range of choices has narrowed considerably. Obviously, June 1, 2009 was a momentous day in U.S. business history. Much of the substance of 20th century management was worked out at GM. Let's hope that crisis will summon the will to make the changes that are needed. If not, the next Detroit may be in China, and sooner than we think.

Joseph L. Bower, Baker Foundation Professor of Business Administration:

The GM bankruptcy poses several questions. How did the board and management of a great company ever allow this extraordinary situation to develop? It is easy to point to the labor agreements from the 1950's, and the slow response to the superior engineering and manufacturing of Japanese competitors, and a reluctance to take environmental issues seriously. But these were not overnight developments. Beyond that, did GM's financial controls become too powerful a force for the product engineers to overcome? Did the marketers not see what Toyota was doing with the Camry and Lexus? On another front, what does it mean for the U.S. government to be supporting one competitor against a group of healthy rivals? Is that what our bankruptcy laws were designed to accomplish? Doesn't a healthy industry require less capacity, so that the winning companies can actually prosper? The administration is embarking on an interesting experiment in political economy.

Malcolm S. Salter, James J. Hill Professor of Business Administration, Emeritus:

Last December the U.S. Treasury had no choice but to become GM's "lender of last resort." To have done otherwise would have been devastating for the U.S. and global economy. With the June 1st bankruptcy deal, the U.S. government's role essentially changes from "reluctant" creditor to "reluctant" owner. And the UAW's role shifts to being an owner as well. Since no other private capital has been willing to step forward, these role changes are not necessarily a bad thing—as long as the Administration lives up to its pledge to keep partisan politics out of inter-firm competition by refraining to exercise the legitimate decision rights of equity holders. Ditto for the UAW.

"The June 1st bankruptcy deal and presidential statement open a new chapter on the conduct of industrial governance and American capitalism." - Malcolm S. Salter

But the President left the door slightly open for selective intervention when he pledged non-interference "in all but the most important decisions." What could those decisions be for the government? For the UAW? The June 1st bankruptcy deal and presidential statement open a new chapter on the conduct of industrial governance and American capitalism. This chapter is being written more or less "on the fly." It is now up to Congress and the rest of us to monitor this highly incremental governance strategy before it is either unduly celebrated or castigated by the public and, more importantly, integrated without critique into the nation's industrial policy "playbook."

Dennis Yao, Lawrence E. Fouraker Professor of Business Administration:

The threat of bankruptcy, by allowing the government and General Motors to negotiate important deals with GM's unions and a majority of creditors, went a fair distance toward achieving a restructuring that would make it possible for GM to emerge as a viable long-term player in the automobile industry. Unfortunately, the threat was not enough; hence the actual bankruptcy.

In addition to the usual strategy, resource, and implementation concerns faced by a company emerging from Chapter 11, the "new GM" has an additional set of worries that arise while the primary owners are the U.S. and Canadian governments. While attention to business environment issues is important for all automakers, GM is more likely than most of its rivals to feel strong pressure to pursue public policy goals such as domestic employment that are not normally pursued by the private sector. Domestic employment, of course, is an important justification for the government bail-outs, but inflexibility with respect to employment and compensation has also been part of the original problem. Hopefully, the new GM will soon offer the type of products that will make employment a lesser concern.

More HBS Faculty Opinions in other Publications:

GM and the World We Have Lost
June 3, 2009 - Boston Globe
Richard Tedlow and David Ruben comment on the profound American loss that is the collapse of General Motors.

How GM Wasted 'a Good Crisis'
June 2, 2009 - Wall Street Journal
Bill George discusses the demise of General Motors and the opportunities missed.

Why I Don't Want to Own General Motors
June 1, 2009 - Harvard Business Publishing
Rosabeth Moss Kanter comments on the bankruptcy of GM, calling it a "dangerous precedent."

The Past and Future of General Motors
April 9, 2009 - Huffington Post
Clay Christensen writes on how foreign auto companies disrupted the U.S. auto industry back in the 1960's, and the undeserved removal of Rick Wagoner as CEO.


General Strategy, Innovation History, Automotive, Transportation, North America

2009年6月24日 星期三

三頭六臂集 646-48


  廣播內容包括「人人都應受到敬重,但不應被偶像崇拜。」(語出愛因斯坦Albert Einstein)、「行動勝理論」(語出恩格斯Friedrich Engels)與「善用今日」(語出歌德Johann von Goethe)。(中央社倫敦25日法新電)官員今天表示,英國倫敦地鐵的駕駛廣播

走在辛亥路 騎樓上 突然有四棟房子的騎樓堵住 想報警/市府乎


Buy Poster at AllPosters.com
Flying Saucers
View Poster
The term "flying saucer" was coined on this date in 1947 when an American pilot reported seeing strange objects near Mt. Rainier, WA, describing them as "saucers skipping across the water." In early July of that year, some suspicious items were collected in the vicinity of Roswell, NM. The US military identified it as debris from a weather balloon that had crashed, but some thirty years later, a witness to the event told a ufologist that he believed an alien spacecraft had been found and that the US military had covered the incident up. On this date in 1997, the U.S. Air Force released its report on the Roswell Incident, stating that the UFOs that were reportedly seen in the area were, in fact, the pieces of the damaged weather balloon and the so-called aliens were actually life-sized dummies.


"After one look at this planet any visitor from outer space would say 'I want to see the manager.'"William S. Burroughs


It takes a village to raise a child. And the first and foremost problem is that the supportive community of our grandparents day, the village, the neighborhood, that place where people looked ...

2009年6月23日 星期二

三頭六臂集 634-44




YY說 敢跟老師抗爭的學生可能有能力



Chinese Stats Official Says Economic Growth Last Year Was Slower Than Many Thought
As confidence in the prospects for China's economy this year has become more widespread, a new picture of its recent performance has also emerged one that could finally make it easier to compare China's economy to those of other big countries.

In an unusual essay (in Chinese here), Guo Tongxin, an official at the National Bureau of Statistics, gives estimates for recent changes in China's gross domestic product that follow the international convention of quarter-on-quarter comparisons. That's a technical-but-important departure from China's usual practice of describing year-on-year growth and the figures paint a very different view of China's economy over the last year or so than the headline numbers China has previously announced. (The article, published Tuesday, carries a disclaimer saying it represents Guo's personal views, not those of the bureau.)

China's traditional method compares GDP and most other indicators to the same period in the previous year. The U.S. and most other developed economies report GDP's changes relative to the previous quarter, which gives a clearer picture of the most recent trend. But with the onset of the financial crisis, China's statistics bureau has been working to improve the transparency and quality of its data. Among other changes, it has promised to start regularly publishing quarterly GDP growth rates in 2010. Many private-sector economists already try to make such estimates, but complain they lack sufficient information to do so accurately.

The new estimates from Guo, which only cover 2008 and early 2009, may be a surprise for skeptics who suspect that China's statistics officials are only capable of reporting nice-sounding numbers. These figures actually show the slowdown in the fourth quarter of last year was even sharper than most outside economists had believed.

Economists surveyed by the Journal in February had, on average, estimated that fourth-quarter GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 2.1%. Guo cited what he called a preliminary estimate that fourth quarter GDP grew 0.1% from the previous quarter, equivalent to an annualized rate of just 0.4%.

The headline year-on-year growth rate announced at the time, by comparison, was 6.8% ─ a gap that clearly shows how quarterly and annual growth rates can give very different pictures of economic turning points.

In a recent article, noted China economist Albert Keidel said the preference for year-on-year comparisons 'illustrates the choice made by China's statistical authorities to use measures that are relatively stable and change only gradually.' The year-on-year comparisons are not necessarily less accurate the U.S. and other nations also report them but their use does mean Chinese authorities 'give up measures that present a more timely picture of what happened to the economy in the immediately preceding quarter or month,' Keidel wrote. That preference has come to seem much less desirable given the rapid changes in the economy over the past year, and has led to pressure on the statistics bureau to improve.

For the first quarter of 2009, when outside economists generally agreed with the bureau's assessment that growth had picked up significantly, the difference isn't so great. Guo's preliminary estimate of a 1.5% quarterly expansion, equivalent to 6.1% annualized rate, is within the 5% to 7% range that most private economists came up with at the time. Guo also said growth for the second quarter is likely to accelerate further to above 2.0%, equivalent to an annualized increase of more than 8%.

Still, it's notable that the bureau only disclosed the low estimate for fourth-quarter growth several months after the fact, when the government is more confident the economy is recovering. It's not alone ─ the World Bank and several investment-bank economists have recently raised their forecast for China's growth this year, citing the bigger-than-expected effect of the government's stimulus programs. But it's hard to escape the feeling that the statistics bureau is still sensitive to the political implications the numbers it publishes.

Andrew Batson


在 上週四發表的一份不同尋常的文章中﹐中國國家統計局官員郭同欣按照國際通用的季度環比統計方法﹐對中國國內生產總值(GDP)的近期變化作出了自己的預 計。這個變化雖然是技術層面﹐然而具有重大意義﹐它告別了中國通常使用的同比增速統計方式﹔較之中國此前宣佈的同比增速﹐新的統計方式給我們帶來了對中國 經濟過去一年左右時間表現的一個完全不同的看法。(這篇文章附帶一個聲明﹐稱文章不代表國家統計局觀點﹐作者文責自負。)

中國在公佈 GDP數據和大多數其他指標時通常只公佈同比變化。而美國和大多數其他發達經濟體則會公佈相對於前一個季度的GDP環比變化﹐這樣可以更為明確地顯示最近 的趨勢。但隨著此次金融危機的爆發﹐中國國際統計局一直在努力提高數據的透明度和質量。除了其他變化﹐中國國家統計局還承諾從2010年開始定期公佈每季 度GDP增速。雖然很多私人部門經濟學家已經在試圖作出此類預計﹐但他們抱怨自己缺乏充足的信息作出準確預計。




研 究中國的經濟學家凱德爾(Albert Keidel)在不久前的一篇文章中強調﹐對同比數據的偏愛顯示出中國統計部門選擇使用相對穩定、只會逐步出現變化的標準。凱德爾說﹐同比數據並不一定不 準確﹐美國和其他國家也會公佈同比數據﹐但使用同比數據確實意味著中國有關當局放棄了能夠更及時反映出上一季度或上月經濟動態的衡量標準。過去一年中由於 經濟形勢迅速變化﹐這種對同比數據的偏好似乎無法讓人滿意﹐並給統計局帶來必須做出改進的壓力。

2009年一季度﹐外界經濟學家大體上同 意統計局的看法﹐認為經濟增長顯著加快﹐因此雙方之間的分歧不是太大。郭同欣初步預計一季度環比增長1.5%﹐年化增長率為6.1%﹐大多數民間經濟學家 得出的結論是增幅在5%-7%之間。郭同欣還說﹐今年第二季度經濟增幅可能進一步加大到2%以上﹐年化增長率為8%以上。

不過﹐值得注意 的是統計局是在政府更為自信地認為經濟正在復蘇之時才公佈去年第四季度低迷的增幅預計﹐而這已經是幾個月之後的事情。無獨有偶﹐世界銀行和幾家投資銀行的 經濟學家最近也上調了中國今年綠增長的預期﹐原因是中國政府的經濟刺激計劃的效應大於預期。但人們還是有種揮之不去的感覺﹐認為統計局仍然對其所公佈的數 據的政治意味十分敏感。

Andrew Batson





2009年 06月 23日 11:13
Big Three Car Makers Boost Their Quality Scores

Detroit's car makers increased their new-vehicle quality scores by an average of 10% in an influential industry survey despite being rocked by bankruptcies and the recession.

Ford Motor Co., General Motors Corp. and Chrysler Group LLC reduced the number of troubles reported by consumers during their first 90 days of ownership, according to the annual J.D. Power & Associates Initial Quality study. Toyota Motor Corp. led all the makers, with its Lexus brand finishing in the top spot, while BMW AG's Mini was last.

The results come at a time when quality and brand image are under intense pressure as auto makers are forced to make deep worker cuts and idle factories, which can lead to production problems.

The quality gap between the foreign brands and U.S. auto companies is now the smallest it has ever been, said David Sargent, J.D. Power's vice president of automotive research. The domestic brands lagged behind the foreign auto makers by just six points.

'Domestic and import initial quality is equal for cars, and the domestics have a slight edge for trucks,' Mr. Sargent said in a speech Monday in Detroit. 'Imports have a significant edge for crossovers.'

The biggest surprise was Chrysler. The company's iconic Jeep brand, which finished last in quality in 2008, climbed four spots in the rankings. Jeep had 137 problems per 100 vehicles -- 29 fewer than last year. The industry average was 108 problems per 100 vehicles.

Chrysler, which filed for bankruptcy April 30 and merged its assets with Fiat SpA, undertook a massive overhaul of its brands in 2008. Many of the vehicles were outfitted with new technologies and redesigned to focus on consumer comfort.

Problems tracked by J.D. Power can range from wind noise to transmission failure. The vehicles were evaluated between November through February.

Toyota's Lexus beat Porsche Automobil Holding SE with 84 problems compared to Porsche's 90. Porsche had the top spot for the past two years. GM's Cadillac finished in third with 91 problems followed by Hyundai Motor Co. at 95 and Honda Motor Co. Ltd. at 99.

Ford's Mercury and Ford nameplates scored above average, but the Lincoln brand finished in 27th place with 129 problems. Lincoln finished 15th last year. Volvo, which Ford is trying to sell, was 24th.

Ford, which has sidestepped the need for federal aid, is relying on product introductions to drive purchases. The company is still losing billions of dollars a year. GM and Chrysler both took federal aid late last year to continue operating during the economic downturn.

GM's vehicles were all over the board. Chevrolet finished in ninth place with 103 problems, but its GMC and Buick came in 18th and 19th, respectively. Buick, with its 117 problems, tied with the industry average last year.

Saturn, Saab and Hummer all finished well below the industry average. Saab was the lowest ranking nameplate with 138 problems. GM is in the process of selling off Saturn, Hummer and Saab as part of its bankruptcy reorganization. It also plans to close its Pontiac brand, which finished in 22nd place with 118 problems. BMW's Mini finished last with 165 problems.

Jeff Bennett

2009年 06月 23日 11:13


據J.D. Power & Associates年度新車質量調查顯示﹐在新購車輛的最初90天中﹐消費者報告的福特汽車(Ford Motor Co.)、通用汽車(General Motors Corp.)和克萊斯勒(Chrysler Group LLC)汽車問題減少。豐田汽車(Toyota Motor Corp.)領先於所有汽車生產商﹐該公司旗下的雷克薩斯(Lexus)品牌奪得榜首﹐而寶馬汽車公司(BMW AG)的Mini品牌則是最後一名。


J.D. Power負責汽車研究的副總裁薩金特(David Sargent)說﹐目前外國品牌和美國汽車企業之間的質量差距是有史以來最小的。本土品牌只落後於外國汽車廠商6分。



克萊斯勒於4月30日申請破產保護﹐並把資產與菲亞特(Fiat SpA)合併。2008年﹐該公司進行了大規模的品牌改革。很多汽車都裝配了新技術﹐並進行了重新設計﹐更偏重於消費者舒適性。

J.D. Power跟蹤到的問題包括風噪聲、傳動系統故障等各類問題。評估時間為去年11月至今年2月。

豐 田汽車的雷克薩斯有84個問題﹐擊敗有90個問題的保時捷(Porsche Automobil Holding SE)奪冠。過去兩年來保時捷一直把持著冠軍寶座。通用汽車旗下的凱迪拉克(Cadillac)有91個問題﹐位居第三﹔現代汽車(Hyundai Motor Co.)有95個問題﹐排第四﹔本田汽車(Honda Motor Co.)有99個問題﹐排第五。



通用汽車旗下品牌大放異彩--翻譯錯誤 all over the board 指"表現差異甚大" 。雪佛蘭(Chevrolet)有103個問題﹐位居第9﹐不過GMC和別克(Buick)分列第18和19位。別克去年有117個問題﹐與行業平均水平持平。

土 星(Saturn)、薩博(Saab)和悍馬(Hummer)均遠遠低於行業平均水平。薩博是排在最末位的品牌﹐有138個問題。作為破產重組的一部分﹐ 通用汽車正在出售土星、悍馬和薩博。該公司還計劃結束龐蒂亞克(Pontiac)品牌﹐該品牌有118個問題﹐排第22位。寶馬旗下的Mini有165個 問題﹐排在最末一名。

Jeff Bennett



這些原則我今晚與太座談談 再說
我昨天向她說將"31歲"的LINK 告訴些高中同學

On a hot August day in 1892, someone took an axe and brutally murdered Andrew and Abby Borden of Fall River, Massachusetts. Circumstantial evidence pointed a finger of guilt at Andrew's 32-year-old daughter Lizzie; some ten months later, she was brought to trial for the crime. The national press had a field day with the story of the spinster schoolteacher and the particularly heinous way her father and stepmother met their demise. The defense rested largely on the issue of reasonable doubt. No one could explain how Lizzie could have accomplished the murders without splattering herself with blood, or how she could clean herself up so quickly. On this date in 1893, the jury found Lizzie Borden innocent of the axe murders of her father and stepmother.


"Lizzie Borden took an axe/And gave her mother forty whacks./When she saw what she had done/She gave her father forty-one."nursery rhyme







友 人按鈴未獲回應,聯絡房東以備份鑰匙開門,看到田翁赤腳趴臥玄關鞋櫃前,全身有多處刀傷倒臥血泊中。警方調查,田女有多條毒品前科,是列管的毒品人口,死 者平常寵愛女兒,當天因女兒向老父要五千元購買毒品,但老父只給三百元,雙方因此在女兒住處爆發口角衝突,老父因此遇害。




Mailboxes installed on street corners in Tokyo and Yokohama during the early Meiji Era (1868-1912) were painted black. Back then, the word yubin (post or mail) had only recently been coined.

There's a story that a man who misread the kanji characters for yubin as tareben (relieving oneself) urinated on a mailbox because the characters are similar. Although I don't know if the story is accurate, it dates from 138 years ago when the modern postal service system took off.

Maejima Hisoka (1835-1919), who founded the system, is said to have been a selfless man. Shortly before he was due to leave government service after having seen his brainchild get off the ground, his acquaintances tried to stop him, saying, "If you stay a little longer, you will be entitled to receive a pension." But Maejima took his leave with a smile. His philosophical attitude is apparent from "Yubin Sogyo-dan" (Episodes about the establishment of the postal system), a posthumous collection of Maejima's writings.

The man known for his rectitude would turn over in his grave if he knew about the abuse of the postage discount system for groups supporting people with disabilities.

The scandal led to the arrest of a bureau chief at the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare over the weekend. The high-ranking official is suspected of having issued a falsified "seal of approval" to an organization claiming to be a disability support group, even though it was not involved in such activities.

The phrase yoto-kuniku literally means offering the head of a sheep on a signboard to sell dog meat. It refers to false advertising. The irregularity is tantamount to giving a sheep's head to a shady organization to hide what it is actually doing.

The bureau chief is said to be denying the allegations. If she is telling the truth, whose will and acts led to the wrongdoing?

We are hearing the phrase seiji anken (political matter) once again. It is bureaucratic jargon for favors supported by politicians. It would be most worrisome if the certificate was forged with no criminal intent on the part of anyone involved in the case. If so, it means the irregularity is a product of government bureaucrats who maintain cozy relationships with politicians.

Referring to the bureau chief, Minister of Health, Labor and Welfare Yoichi Masuzoe said, "She was a rising star for working women."

Regrettably, Masuzoe used the past tense. If the situation continues, the bureau chief, unlike Maejima, will end up failing in mid-career on a sour note.

--The Asahi Shimbun, June 16(IHT/Asahi: June 17,2009)



Getty Images
孟克(Edvard Munch)的名畫《吶喊》
哈 佛大學心理學家吉爾伯特(Daniel Gilbert)不久前在《紐約時報》(New York Times)的專欄中寫道﹐不知道要發生什麼壞事比知道什麼壞事要發生的感覺更糟。我們大多數人之所以會夜不能寐、抽煙發泄﹐並不是因為道瓊斯指數要再跌 1000點﹐而是因為我們不知道道指會不會下跌──不確定的感覺比不確定的事情本身更折磨人。


為 什麼不確定性如此令人懼怕?為什麼我們情願知道壞事肯定會發生﹐也不願去猜測壞事會不會發生?當我們知道壞事肯定會發生的時候﹐我們可能會難過一陣子。但 接下來﹐大多數人都會努力改變他們的行為或態度﹐盡可能的調整自己。吉爾伯特寫道﹐但如果我們不知道要出現什麼狀況﹐那才真的令人煎熬。

但 就像死亡和納稅一樣﹐不確定性也是生命中不可避免的部分。你或孩子們可能會患上怪病﹐工作的最後期限也難以預見﹐會遇到交通障礙。很多想要孩子的夫婦﹐尤 其是那些為生育問題苦惱的夫婦﹐在等待確定是否懷孕的時候﹐也每個月都會面臨不確定性。這一切都意味著﹐我們需要找到如何應對不確定性的辦法──辦法之一 就是接受現實。不管我們怎麼努力﹐總會有我們無法控制的事情﹐因此就該想開點﹐隨遇而安。


Rachel Emma Silverman

周三配新眼鏡 (周一發現必須重回原先度數)
周五鏡片脫落 (這是一家老牌眼鏡行)