「華人戴明學院」是戴明哲學的學習共同體 ,致力於淵博型智識系統的研究、推廣和運用。 The purpose of this blog is to advance the ideas and ideals of W. Edwards Deming.

2020年12月14日 星期一

Google 停機/宕機 45分鐘;谷歌的Gmail服務再次出現中斷;美國財政部等資料庫為疑似俄國駭客侵入

 Google outage: The tech giant’s popular services — like Gmail, Hangouts, Meets and YouTube — went offline on Monday, halting work and classrooms around the globe. The company attributed the problem to an “authentication system outage” that lasted for about 45 minutes.

谷歌服務遭遇故障 Gmail、Hangouts、Meets和YouTube等服務週一大範圍宕機,導致全球各地的工作交流和教學活動無法正常進行,持續時間約一小時。該公司將問題歸因於“驗證系統故障”。

谷歌的Gmail服務再次出現中斷


***

U.S. officials suspect Russia in largest hack in years

The Trump administration said on Sunday that hackers acting on behalf of a foreign government — almost certainly Russian intelligence, according to federal and private experts — broke into key government networks and had access to email systems.
It was one of the most sophisticated and perhaps largest hacks in more than five years, infiltrating the Treasury and Commerce Departments and targeting national security-related agencies. A hunt was on to determine if other parts of the government had been affected.
The motive remains elusive, two people familiar with the matter said, and it was too soon to tell how damaging the attacks were. But the attacks may have been underway as early as this spring, meaning they continued undetected through months of the pandemic and the election season.
Details: The campaign involved the hackers inserting code into periodic updates of software used to manage networks by a company called SolarWinds. Its products are widely used in corporate and federal networks, and the malware was carefully minimized to avoid detection.

2020年12月9日 星期三

保持當地最大魚或的罐頭品質,以利行銷,當務之急:客製罐頭,選料、調味....Bringing a "Can-Do" Spirit to Specialty Produce: Preserved Food Pioneer

 保持當地最大魚或的罐頭品質,以利行銷,當務之急:客製罐頭,選料、調味....Bringing a "Can-Do" Spirit to Specialty Produce: Preserved Food Pioneer

NHK


Follow a pioneering Kyoto-based firm that boosts producers across Japan by canning local specialty foods. Under the motto "bringing a brighter future through canned goods," the business, led by former IT engineer Inoue Kazuma, eschews additives to deliver the natural flavor of primary ingredients. From game and seafood, to premium vegetables and other rare and unique delicacies, this unique business fields 20-30 inquiries a month from producers eager to reach a wider audience.

google翻譯

關"註"一家開創性的京都公司,該公司通過罐裝當地特色食品來促進日本各地的生產者。 在前IT工程師井上一馬(Inoue Kazuma)的領導下,該業務以“通過罐頭食品創造更光明的未來”為座右銘,避免使用添加劑以提供天然的天然風味。 從野味和海鮮,到優質蔬菜和其他稀有而獨特的美味佳餚,這種獨特的業務每月會向生產者發出20-30次查詢,這些生產者渴望能接觸到更多的觀眾。


Watch Live in
5 hours 30 min
Bringing a "Can-Do" Spirit to Specialty Produce: Preserved Food Pioneer - Inoue Kazuma
December 10, 2020

2020年10月13日 星期二

2020年10月5日 星期一

灑錢 R&D 、設廠就能趕上? 談Very Large Integrated Investment 的半導體業;我們靠自己? Lenovo's 2013年聘 Tudor Brown,入董事會


在這波中國半導體業靠自己的浪潮下,除了華為,中芯,長江各大半導體廠商,我注意到Lenovo 公公司的董事會2013年聘 Tudor Brown,入董事會。


 Just prior to the appointment of Jerry Yang, Tudor Brown, the founder of British semiconductor design firm ARM, was also appointed to Lenovo's board. 

這有點扯遠...... 


---

中芯國際在港交所公告,其部分供應商收到美國出口管制規定的進一步限制,正評估該出口限制的影響。目前中國最先進的設備僅有上海微電子的90nm光刻機。世界頂尖是5nm - iPhone 12。90nm是2003產物 - PS3/Intel Pentium 4 Prescott



华为与中兴遭美国制裁案搅动中国科技界,全民被号召造芯。但新华社旗下周刊“瞭望”日前批评,因为部分地方政府的轻率及无知,在过去1年多,江苏、四川、湖北、贵州及陕西各有6个人民币百亿级别的半导体计划,后继无力,先后停摆。



----

 China spent a record 2.2 trillion yuan on R&D in 2019, but needs to do more to escape US tech strangulation.

半導體業自1980年代起,就有個名詞,叫 Very Large Integrated Investment.

90年代中,某公司的副董事長說,半導體製造業,沒秘訣,灑錢即可

2019/2020年時,美國祭出 利用美國科技之產品輸出許可制,類似冷戰時期對共產黨區輸出之"管制"。

這大大加強中共的"中國製造2025年遠景ˋˋ之生意困境。

於是,中國的資金分配扭曲情形將加大。

基礎/尖端科技似乎不只是"錢"的問題,起碼還有人才和"產業之基本建設"難觀。

半導體業,韓國和台灣都是近30年的新起之秀。為何中共的半導體業無法比肩呢?

為何日本或歐洲的廠商,也無法與台灣、韓國敬征呢?

理論很多,最簡單的理由是:天氣好,空氣自由,資金沒問題。這是"恆真"的說法。

基本上,一國無法產業"通吃",完全自主。

2020年10月4日 星期日

有點妙:猜猜Visa和 Master如何開發中國市場?導航軟體Browser 可和蒐索引擎分開各賺各的:China still loves Chrome even though Google is blocked

中國以外,全世界9成的信用卡被 Visa和 Master分掉。
猜猜Visa和 Master如何開發中國市場?

****
導航軟體Browser 可和蒐索引擎分開各賺各的。


“The reason I don’t like most Chinese browsers is that they are too profit-driven," said one user.



SCMP.COM
China still loves Chrome even though Google is blocked
Internet users in China cannot access the Google search engine without a

航空;電影(院線);旅遊餐飲業、教育頁等各行各業的疫情衝擊業績


航空業
過去很成功,投資很大的航空公司,如美國、英國等三大公司,國泰、新加坡航空等,
這波疫情的業績都慘不忍睹。
台灣的從客運改成貨運,讓損失少點。
台北的觀光飯店,外國旅客極少,也必須想辦法。

JUST IN: New York City is closing schools and businesses in parts of Brooklyn and Queens in an effort to stop a second wave of the coronavirus.


***

Google 等公司的員工,都喜歡繼續"再家上班"。

美國的學校觀閉,母親們可能辭職當"教育嬤嬤",這趨勢很嚴重。

粗心,錯誤集: 日本證劵交易所的電腦系統中斷整天。國家地理雜誌 (英文 NG);新鮮菇;半導體產業;馬雲不見得對;"勘誤表";假新聞多;

 Fujitsu 在日本證劵交易所的電腦系統中斷整天。7成是國際交易。

3天之後還沒真正找出問題。真的丟臉。

***

著名的國家地理雜誌 (英文 NG),竟然有兩頁中的框線,無法對齊問題。

NG每月印量百外本以上。

***

她將新鮮菇放到一般藏香菇、海帶等櫃子--無冷藏。

數天後,有腐爛味道。

***

一般人對全球半導體產業的技術分布和供需不熟悉,所以投資等容易出錯。

據說某國採取"全民煉鋼"之愚勇,大力投資。

中芯2~3個月前股價還可能衝上天呢!

( DW:中國最大的晶片製造商中芯週日證實,美國的供應商已受到美國出口管制的限制。專家分析,此舉將會嚴重打擊中國的半導體產業。與此同時,阿里巴巴創辦人馬雲近期在一場演說中也直言,中國的晶片製造業仍落後國際水平20年,並強調這與中國的教育方式有很大的關聯。)

****

刊物/書籍前附有"勘誤表"的,已屬可貴。

網路上錯字多。

假新聞多,這是另一層次問題。

****

2020年9月23日 星期三

“A Million Random Digits”—contain mysterious errors. New Method of Producing Random Numbers. A Million Random Digits THE SEQUEL: with Perfectly Uniform Distribution. Why are countries creating public random number generators?


“Soul crushing.” An engineer discovers that numbers in a revered 65-year-old book—“A Million Random Digits”—contain mysterious errors.

2020.9.25

***

Why are countries creating public random number generators?

In Chile, politicians resent the Comptroller General, which audits government officials to prevent corruption. The audits are supposed to be random—but scrutinized officials sometimes complain about unfair targeting. "The auditors have to convince the public they're doing their work honestly," says Alejandro Hevia, a computer scientist at the University of Chile in Santiago. Along with researchers around the world, he is developing technology that could persuade critics that audits are truly random: public random number generators.
On 10 July, Hevia's team will unveil an online random number service. Later in July, the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) will launch its Randomness Beacon as a permanent service, upgrading a pilot program that began in 2013. Brazil, too, is planning a beacon, by the end of 2019. All aim to improve on commercial random number generators, not only by being free, but by generating the random numbers through transparent protocols and permanently archiving them. The services could benefit everyday applications such as cryptography and lotteries—and also research. Some scientific simulation methods rely on random numbers, and clinicians could use them in drug trials to fairly assign who gets a treatment or placebo.
"We want to put randomness on the internet for people to use in whatever way they can find," says Rene Peralta, a computer scientist at NIST in Gaithersburg, Maryland, who leads the U.S. effort. "I think of it as digital infrastructure."

***2016.5.29

A Million Random Digits THE SEQUEL: with Perfectly Uniform Distribution [Paperback] David Dubowski (Author)
Finally, after 56 years the saga continues! Here is the next book of random numbers, pseudorandom actually, this time generated purely by mathematics. The familiar table form continues, but this set has perfectly uniform distribution. Using the Pi Crust Shuffler algorithm, a modern PC quietly churned out these 400 pages of delightful digits, ready for action in the real world. Any math lover would be delighted to receive this book as a gift! The algorithm's BASIC source code is included.


These Amazon Products Are No Joke, But the Online Reviews Are
Whether on Books About Random Digits Or Toilet Seats, Everybody's a Comedian
By MICHAEL M. PHILLIPS
What is it about the book "A Million Random Digits With 100,000 Normal Deviates" that brings out the wiseguy in people?

Smart-aleck customers are flexing their comedy muscles on Amazon, with snarky reviews and silly photos of products like banana slicers and fresh whole rabbit. WSJ's Michael M. Phillips reports.
Rand Corp.'s 600-page paperback, which delivers exactly what it promises, sells for $64.60 on Amazon.com AMZN -2.20% . Yet 400 people have submitted online Amazon reviews, most of them mocking the 60-year-old reference book for mathematicians, pollsters and lottery administrators.
"Almost perfect," said one reviewer. "But with so many terrific random digits, it's a shame they didn't sort them, to make it easier to find the one you're looking for."
Five stars from this commenter: "[T]he first thing I thought to myself after reading chapter one was, 'Look out, Harry Potter!' "
Several reviewers complained that while most of the numbers in the book appeared satisfactorily random, the pages themselves were in numerical order.
Amazon's online superstore has become the unlikely stage for 21st-century amateur comedy, where thousands of customers have submitted reviews for products ranging from the self-explanatory explanatory book "How to Avoid Huge Ships" to the Hutzler 571 banana slicer, a yellow plastic banana-shaped device that cuts bananas into even slices.
Rand said its long list of random numbers, first published in 1955, is one of its all-time best sellers. "It's a tool of some sort, but it's beyond my clear understanding," a Rand spokesman admitted.
One Amazon reviewer panned a real-life copycat publication called "A Million Random Digits THE SEQUEL: with Perfectly Uniform Distribution." "Let's be honest, 4735942 is just a rehashed version of 64004382, and 32563233 is really nothing more than 97132654 with an accent."
"We are always amazed by the creativity of our customers," said an Amazon spokeswoman...

 more: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323528404578454763919379102.html?mod=djemITPE_h


-----

New Method of Producing Random Numbers Could Improve ...

news.utexas.edu/2016/.../computer-science-breakthrough-could-improve-cybersecurit...

May 16, 2016 - Computer science professor David Zuckerman and graduate student Eshan Chattopadhyay will present research about their method in June at ...

Academics Make Theoretical Breakthrough in Random Number ...

https://threatpost.com/academics-make-theoretical-breakthrough...random.../118150/

May 17, 2016 - David Zuckerman, a computer science professor, and Eshan Chattopadhyay, a graduate student, published a paper in March that will be ...


隨機亂數生成演算法獲突破 五月 28, 2016 (photo by James Bowe)


本文來自於 sciencenews.org《New technique produces real randomness》,36氪翻譯

隨機亂數在軟體的應用非常廣泛。比如說抽獎程式就是一下能想到的應用之一。但是在一些更加重要的應用當中隨機亂數也發揮著重要的作用,比如加密敏感訊息、對地球天氣等複雜系統建模以及數據的公正採樣等都離不開隨機亂數。

不過電腦生成隨機亂數要比擲骰子困難得多,而且那些隨機亂數實際上並不是完全不可預測的,而是在隨機種子的基礎上結合演算法自動生成的「數」,這些「數」實際上是可複製的,算不上真正的隨機(偽隨機亂數)。所以隨機亂數的隨機性問題是基礎演算法面臨的一大難題。

不過最近德州大學的兩位電腦科學家 Eshan Chattopadhyay 和 David Zuckerman 開發出了一種改進的隨機抽樣器,這種算法只需要兩種隨機性不強的來源即可生成真正隨機的數字,被認為是基礎算法取得的一大突破。

一般的隨機算法為了提高隨機性會在演算法中引入環境的隨機性,比如滑鼠或鍵盤的位置等。電腦會採樣若干時間點的滑鼠位置然後轉化為一串數字。但這仍然算不上真正的隨機,比如前一刻滑鼠位置如果是在螢幕左側的話,下一刻滑鼠跑到右側的可能性是很低的。因此這樣生成的隨機亂數序列仍然具有相關性的,或者是可能會偏向特定值的。也就是說,這種隨機性還是很弱。

而隨機抽取器則是通過這些隨機性較弱的來源來發掘隨機性。用 MIT 電腦科學家 Dana Moshkovitz 的話來說,隨機性是一種資源,獲取隨機性的過程就像是挖金礦一樣—先開採礦石,然後排沙篩金。

而兩位科學家的算法是對隨機抽樣器的改進。這種隨機抽取器將兩種獨立的弱隨機亂數來源組合為一個接近隨機的集合,並且只有細微偏差。然後再利用彈性函數(一種訊息組合方法)將一串數字轉化為真正的隨機位 —1 或 0。

利用彈性函數進行訊息組合可以防止偏差的出現。比方說在大選裡面,一些蓄意的投票者有可能會把結果引向想要的方向。但彈性函數可以保護誠實的投票者。因為它不是選取簡單多數,而是先把數據分成 3 組,然後選取每組中的多數,再把選出來的數分成 3 組然後再抽取每組中的多數,以此類推直到最後。這種做法使得選舉可以容忍大量盲點的存在,而在隨機亂數生成方面,這種做法可以把偏差數過濾掉。

跟以往需要接近隨機輸入的隨機抽取器相比,這種新的辦法正是通過在隨機性非常非常弱的來源當中「淘金」來挖掘真正的隨機亂數,從而實現了隨機性的實質性改進,其結果已經接近於理想情況。對於加密、複雜系統模擬等應用來說,這是一個非常好的消息。



The technical details are described in the academics’ paper “Explicit Two-Source Extractors and Resilient Functions.” The academics’ introduction of resilient functions into their new algorithm built on numerous previous works to arrive at landmark moment in theoretical computer science. Already, one other leading designer of randomness extractors, Xin Li, has built on their work to create sequences of many more random numbers.

See more at: Academics Make Theoretical Breakthrough in Random Number Generation https://wp.me/p3AjUX-uJE

2020年9月13日 星期日

C919客機暴露“厲害國”多項科技短板 2020 。 中國自製飛機ARJ21通過認證,今年準備投入市場? (Apr 09, 2015 ?)

軟肋遠不只芯片, C919客機暴露“厲害國”多項科技短板

就在華為面臨麒麟芯片斷供彈盡糧絕之際,中國“大飛機”C919所依賴的一連串美國尖端技術顯示出,中國的科技實力軟肋多多,還有多處技術“命門”掐在美國手中。

國產大飛機交付日期一再延後

中國政府最近關於科技產業的一系列動作和表態,似乎反映了中國愈加擔憂半導體芯片領域和商用飛機製造業受制於人的被動局面。

官方媒體報導說,8月31日,中國工業和信息化部部長肖亞慶在上任一個月後就到中國商用飛機公司(中國商飛)總裝製造中心浦東基地調研。他強調,要“牢記習近平總書記囑託”,把中國的“大飛機”事業“搞上去”。

肖亞慶具體指出,大飛機、航空發動機和集成電路產業對中國的戰略全局具有“重大意義”。

此前,習近平7月在一場企業家座談會上提出,要“集中力量辦好自己的事”,要“以國內大循環為主體”、“國內國際雙循環相互促進”。這一發展格局提議被分析人士解讀為中共中央高層的政策正在向關鍵核心技術領域傾斜,擺脫在關鍵科技領域被美國等西方國家“卡脖子”的窘境,甚至不惜重提在經濟和科技領域的自力更生。

中國商用客機發展步入“大飛機”時代,但進展並不順利。繼支線飛機“翔鳳”(ARJ21)在2016年投入運營後,中國商飛主攻研製的“大飛機”C919遇到不少難題。這款以空中客車A320neo和波音737MAX作為競爭對象的中短程窄體單通道客機自從2017年5月試飛後,交付日期從原定的2015年年底一拖再拖。

截至目前,中國商飛共生產了6架C919試飛飛機。中國東方航空已確定成為C919的首家用戶,官方宣布的交付日期定在2021年。

設在新加坡和馬來西亞的航空業分析機構Endau Analytics創辦人舒庫爾·尤索夫(Shukor Yusof)說,中國商飛C919明年交付的目標極具挑戰性。

“我從我在中國的聯繫人那裡了解到,飛機實際上已經差不多完工了。但與此同時,它還存在一些初期問題。”尤索夫對美國之音說:“至於C919(的交付) ,我認為現實地說,可能是2022年——如果他們能把交付日期提前到2021年底之前,那算是非常幸運的。別忘了,他們非常依賴西方的供應鏈,來自歐洲和美國的很多第三方供應商。而且隨著新冠疫情持續時間越來越長,我認為延遲是不可避免的。”

中國商飛一份日期標註為2020年7月的內部文件顯示,公司目標在2019年之後的“成熟期”每年生產150架C919客機,但沒有給出這一目標的具體日程。文件說,C919目前已經收到了28家客戶815架訂單。

航空與防務諮詢公司蒂爾集團(Teal Group)公佈的資料顯示,C919的開發成本估計達到了600億人民幣,但售價目前還不得而知。中國商飛的文件則顯示,C919的直接運營成本比同類機型降低了10%。

C919的“國產”只是名號?

中國商飛稱,其研製的支線客機ARJ21與中型客機C919都是自行研製、具有自主知識產權的產品。但是,中國商用客機的“國產”意義廣受質疑。

有關C919的國產率眾說紛紜。中國官方媒體宣稱,C919實現了近60%的國產化,並將力爭最終實現100%的國產化。但不可否認的是,目前參與C919製造的外國供應商扮演了極為關鍵、甚至是決定性的角色。

C919飛機在各項重要技術上對國外的依賴程度極高,飛機的動力系統、航電飛控系統、燃油系統、電源系統、起落架等關鍵領域,都直接採用國外成熟的產品和技術、或是由中外合資企業製造;中國國內航空工業部門參與設計製造的主要是機身、機翼、尾翼、內飾等部分。

華盛頓戰略與國際研究中心(CSIS)中國商務和經濟高級顧問兼理事會主席甘思德(Scott Kennedy)在接受美國之音採訪時斬釘截鐵地否定了中國大飛機全面國產化的前景。他說,C919的“中國身份”只是個名號。

甘思德說:“說到C919,它只是名義上的中國飛機。所有能讓這款飛機飛起來的東西都是西方的。它的供應鏈也不能稱作全球供應鏈,它實際上是一個西方的供應鏈,並且主要是美國的供應鏈。”

甘思德說,C919和已經在運行的支線飛機ARJ21一樣,都是基於外國產品原型而設計:“ARJ21的框架基本上就是麥道MD-80飛機,所有讓ARJ21飛起來的東西都是進口的。”

蒂爾集團副總裁、航空分析師理查德·阿布拉菲亞(Richard Aboulafia)的評價更為尖銳,他說,沒有美國技術,中國的大飛機工程將整個“脫軌”。

阿布拉菲亞對美國之音說:“沒有西方的發動機和航空電子系統,中國根本無法做成。真正的挑戰不是造飛機,真正的挑戰是發動機和航空電子設備,這是飛機的肌肉和大腦。建造一個機尾畫著國旗的鋁管並沒有什麼意義。”

美國企業捏著C919哪些命門?

美國通過“實體清單”對華為及其關係企業獲取芯片和其他技術的途徑進行封堵,台積電將從9月15日之後停止為華為生產高端的麒麟芯片。專家認為,比起華為和中興公司在芯片領域受制於美國的局面,中國航空製造業面臨的挑戰有過之而無不及。

戰略與國際問題研究中心的甘思德說:“人們在談論中國公司面臨的挑戰時,會說到華為等公司因為依賴重要的半導體而面臨的挑戰。而在航空領域,中國在飛機部件和組裝上(對西方)的依賴(比華為對西方的依賴)更強。”

C919使用的LEAP-1C發動機由美國通用電氣和法國賽峰公司合資的CFM國際公司研發生產。CFM在2015年7月向中國商飛交付了第一台LEAP-1C發動機。

美國時刻掌控C919的動力生命線並非杞人憂天。《華爾街日報》今年2月曾報導說,特朗普政府曾考慮停止向CFM國際公司發放向中國出口LEAP-1C發動機的許可證,也考慮限制通用電氣為C919提供航空電子系統的出口。

消息一出,中國航空工業發展研究中心高級工程師陸峰當時就發文指出:“此時停止供應發動機,無異於釜底抽薪”。儘管美國政府並未實施這一禁令,但經歷了一場虛驚的中國航空業時刻擔心,美國可以如法炮製,出於安全和戰略目的,禁止美國企業向中國提供航天發動機等關鍵技術,這一“達摩克利斯之劍”時刻懸在C919項目的頭上。

航空業分析機構Endau Analytics的尤索夫說:“無論是ARJ21還是C919,大部分用於製造飛機的部件都是西方國家製造的。在機身、零部件方面,比如輪胎、起落架、發動機,基本上都是從西方進口、在中國組裝的。它是空客320的複製品。”

除了發動機由CFM提供以外,C919的航電、飛控系統也極為依賴美國供應商(在中國政府的規定下,C919的許多外國供應商不得不在中國建廠或者通過合資企業組裝設備)。C919的一級供應商中,至少包括以下幾家美國企業(其中CFM為美法合資):

  • CFM國際公司(美國通用電氣與法國賽峰合作)提供LEAP-1C發動機;
  • 設在俄亥俄州的通用電氣航空集團(GE Aviation)民用航電系統提供核心航電系統、顯示系統、機載維護系統和航電系統綜合服務;
  • 總部設在俄亥俄州的運動和控制技術製造商派克漢尼汾公司(Parker Hannifin)旗下的派克宇航是C919飛機液壓系統、主飛控作動系統、 燃油系統和油箱惰化系統的供應商;
  • 總部設在北卡羅萊納州的霍尼韋爾(Honeywell)為C919提供四項關鍵系統,包括飛行控制系統、機輪和剎車系統、輔助動力裝置及導航系統;
  • 設在康涅狄克州的漢勝公司(Hamilton Sundstrand)承擔C919項目電源系統產品的研發和製造;
  • 總部設在愛奧華州的羅克韋爾柯林斯(Rockwell Collins)與多家中國公司合資,為C919 項目研製生產綜合監視系統、通信與導航系統和全動模擬機;
  • 紐約州的穆格公司(Moog)參與提供C919高升力系統。

甘思德說,中國近年來的戰略發展路線、以及美中關係緊張,讓美國製裁中國航空業的可能性驟然升高。他說:“中國最初在2008年、2009年對C919作展望,開始尋找潛在的供應商時,民用商業運用和國家安全之間的分界線相當明確。隨著美中關係的惡化,情況有所不同。隨著中國推行軍民融合計劃,民用與軍用的界限也發生了變化。現在很有可能的是,西方國家政府可能會重新審查美國和西方供應商承諾提供給C919的技術,可能認定這些技術會幫助中國軍事發展。”

他說:“C919的發動機就經歷了這樣的傳聞,至少在目前,他們躲過了這場困局。但隨著美中關係惡化和中國自身軍事發展的推進,這將始終是一個潛在的障礙。”

從“新四大發明”到“35項卡脖子技術”

從對高鐵建設、移動支付等“中國新四大發明”的盲目吹捧,到華為因美國斷供芯片被逼到彈盡糧絕時的赫然驚醒,官方控制下的輿論對中國科技實力的認知從三年前的不可一世轉變為如今的高度警覺。

2017年,一項針對在中國的外國留學生的調查將高鐵、網購、電子商務、共享單車列為最受留學生青睞的“中國技術”。儘管這四項技術並非來源自中國,許多中國媒體還是迅速將它們封為中國的“新四大發明”,並常常在對內宣傳時使用這樣的說法。

2018年6月,中國《科技日報》開闢“亟待攻克的核心技術”專欄,細數中國35項嚴重受制於外國的“卡脖子”技術,其中包括芯片領域的光刻機、射頻器件和超精密拋光工藝,飛機製造領域的航空發動機艙室、適航標準和航空鋼材,軟件領域的操作系統、工業設計軟件等。

就連中國引以為傲的人工智能技術,《科技日報》在分析中也承認,中國工業機器人技術的算法不精,穩定性和精確性遠遜於外國。

有關中國的科技軟肋,甘思德還補充道:“在製藥行業。中國人正在取得進步,他們在疫苗和基因治療的發展中貢獻巨大,但製藥業仍由美國和其他幾個國家主導。中國在製藥行業的發展還有很長的路要走。”

重提自力更生

在芯片設計製造和飛機發動機等“卡脖子”環節,中國政府正在試圖擺脫對西方的依賴。今年8月,中國國務院發布關於集成電路產業和軟件產業發展政策的通知,表示要從投融資、研發、進出口、人才、知識產權、市場應用、國際合作八個方面給予集成電路和軟件產業的政策支持。中國航發集團商發公司正在持續研製CJ-1000AX客機發動機,計劃2025年投入運營,希望讓這台國產飛機發動機代替中國C919客機目前使用的LEAP-1C發動機。

甘思德對於中國自力更生髮展商用飛機製造業的前景並不看好:“只有巴西、加拿大、美國、歐盟等少數幾個國家製造出了成功的商用飛機。俄羅斯也試過,但他們的飛機並不怎麼樣。印尼人、甚至日本人基本上都放棄了。所以這不是真要批評中國,因為我們討論的是最先進的技術。”

Endau Analytics諮詢機構創始人尤索夫認為,中國商飛想後來居上十分困難。他說:“雖然我不懷疑中國人最終可能會加入這一行列,但我想至少要10到20年的時間才能達到一定水平,或許還有競爭的能力。但我認為這將非常困難,因為波音和空客已經把商用飛機市場各控制了一半。因此,中國要想打破這種雙寡頭壟斷,他們很難說服世界各地的市場,讓航空公司購買飛機。他們(中國政府)可能會脅迫和影響中國的國有航空公司,讓東航、南航、國航購買這些飛機,因為它們都是被中國民航局控制的。”

蒂爾集團的阿布拉菲亞大膽預測,中國政府在航空等領域採取的自立門戶政策可能是為了美中全面脫鉤做準備。他警告,後果可能是讓中國重回冷戰時期的前蘇聯老路。

“他們並不准備在國際市場上競爭,他們只是在為了飛機自給自足的未來做準備,為西方和中國之間不再進行這種貿易做準備。”阿布拉菲亞說。

“這是對蘇聯模式的重複……世界上只有兩個國家曾經自己建造過雙通道噴氣式飛機。一個是美國,另一個是前蘇聯。”阿布拉菲亞說:“蘇聯飛機整體都不是很好。就像整個蘇聯經濟一樣,各方面都算夠用,但不是很好。不幸的是,中國政府正走這條老路。”

甘思德認為,試圖尋求自力更生和獨立的戰略只會減緩中國的技術進步:“如果這是他們最終要走的方向,他們會搬起石頭砸自己的腳。”




*****
幾年以前,空中巴士廣體飛機作洲際飛行認證測試,為業界大事。現在中國自製飛機ARJ21通過認證,今年準備投入市場,為"初生之犢".....



http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/chinas-first-homegrown-commercial-plane-clear-skies-ahead/

China’s First Homegrown Commercial Jet: Clear Skies Ahead?


Apr 09, 2015
China


On December 30, 2014, Li Jia Xiang, chief of the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), flew on a regional jet liner from Shanghai Pudong to Beijing. But this journey was no ordinary flight.



After it safely landed in Beijing Airport, the jetliner, an ARJ21, had finally earned its Type Certificate from CAAC, which meant the aircraft model had satisfied its basic safety requirements and could enter China’s civil aviation market. It took the ARJ21 — the first commercially available aircraft ever designed in China — six long years to get this entry ticket.
Luo Ronghuai, deputy general manager of the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) and the chief of the ARJ21 Project, has been deeply involved in the whole process — from design and R&D through manufacturing to flight testing.




What challenges has ARJ21 gone through? Are these made-in-China aircraft safe enough? Who will purchase them? What is the status of China’s second foray into aircraft design, the larger C919? And what impact have these domestically designed and built aircraft on the upstream and downstream industry value chain? China Knowledge@Wharton talked with Luo Ronghuai recently about these questions and others.
Below is an edited version of the interview.
China Knowledge@Wharton: Let’s talk first about ARJ21 in detail. What does the plane look like, and what are the aircraft it will be competing with primarily in the global market?
Luo Rong Huai: The ARJ21 jet is a 70- to 90-seat, short-to-medium range, turbofan powered regional aircraft. It’s the first civil aircraft to which China owns independent intellectual property rights, and it’s also the first time the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration has agreed to accept and approve aircraft applications for flight certification based on the reviews of the Civil Aviation Administration of China.
Its major competition in the world will be [the Embraer] ERJ175 of Brazil and [the Sukhoi Superjet 100] SSJ from Russia, both regional aircraft with 70 to 110 seats.

“Since it was the first time China had designed an aircraft, we had no experience, so there were many experiments. We had to try again and again in order to get the results we wanted.”
China Knowledge@Wharton: The ARJ21 jet liner accomplished its first flight in November 2008. Why did take so long — six years — to obtain its certification?
Luo: Since it was the first time China had designed an aircraft, we had no experience, so there were many experiments. We had to try again and again in order to get the results we wanted. After the ARJ21’s first flight in 2008, we originally anticipated it would take at most four years to get the aircraft certified – but then the real challenges began emerging, many more of them than we had been able to imagine. Twitter
It took us a long time to study, explore and learn what we needed to know to meet all those certification requirements. For example, there’s an experiment called the “Natural Icing Flight Test” which originally was planned to take place in Xinjiang province [the region in the Northwest corner of China]. However, after flying the aircraft there repeatedly over a period of four years, we had still only completed part of that testing regimen. Finally, we had to look for suitable weather conditions in North America instead.
In order to finish all the flight tests of the ARJ21, for six years, we took the aircraft to the most extreme ends of China: The furthest north, the deepest south, the coldest, the hottest, the windiest and the most humid places in the country. And, we went to the U.S. and Canada to find extremely icy environments – the plan flew all around the Northern Hemisphere.
In addition to the enormous amount of time and resources we spent on overcoming technical barriers, we also gradually built up, for the first time, a team of testing and certification staff. But we’re still small. In Seattle, Boeing has a team of more than 250 people that work on flight test certification. Our Shanghai certification center has only 50 to 60 people, and the CAAC has another 30 to 40 people.


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China Knowledge@Wharton: What are these flight tests? Can you give some examples?
Luo: The major target of flight tests is to look at the most dangerous potential moments of the flight, and see how your aircraft performs — for example, a stall, passing through a 27-knot crosswind, or an engine failure, to name a few. Test pilots have to proactively seek out these low-probability events, which only happen once in tens of thousands of hours of flying time.
For example, there’s the “one engine inoperative” test, which refers, unsurprisingly, to a situation when one of the plane’s two engines isn’t working. So, you have to have test pilots shut down an engine in mid-flight to find out if the plane can be flown acceptably in that condition. But that’s only one of many, and these mandatory experiments take thousands of test flights. Only when you have tried to fly a plane under every dangerous condition you could anticipate, and proved that it can handle them, can the aircraft be considered safe to sell and fly commercially.
The type certification we took the ARJ21 through involved testing thousands of individual items. In the end, it added up to 3,418 reports and 300,000 pages, which, if you stacked them up, would be 30 meters high.
Although it was a long process, we have accumulated a lot of valuable experience for future aircraft tests. Having gone through this will make it easier and more efficient when we have to start putting our next aircraft, the large C919, through all these experiments in near future.

“The ARJ21 is the first regional aircraft China has produced based on international standards, and that it has been certified is a milestone for China’s aviation industry.”
China Knowledge@Wharton: What does this certification mean? What impact will it have for Chinese-made planes in future?
Luo: The ARJ21 is the first regional aircraft China has produced based on international standards, and that it has been certified is a milestone for China’s aviation industry. It demonstrates that we’ve successful developed our regional aircraft manufacturing technology.
The global aviation community recognizes the maturity of a country’s aviation industry by its ability to produce new aircraft that can be certified flightworthy. In the ARJ21-700 project, we have accomplished the entire process — from design to manufacturing, experimentation to flight tests. We mastered a bunch of new technology, new materials, new processes, and accumulated a lot of project-management experience, which has also laid the groundwork for future big aircraft projects like the C919.
China Knowledge@Wharton: Does this certification mean the plane can be delivered right away? Can the aircraft be exported to global markets like Europe and U.S. now?
Luo: Certification and delivery are two very different things. Every plane to be delivered to an airline has to obtain its own airworthiness certificate from the CAAC. At present, the CAAC is checking the first ARJ21-700 plane for this certificate. And the CAAC still has to audit and approve the quality-assurance system, the flight support system, and the continuous airworthiness program. Once all these checks have been done, the first ARJ21-700 plane will be delivered to Chengdu Airline [one of China’s domestic airlines] and formally start to fly, which we anticipate will happen this year.
For any airplane model to be exported to Europe and the U.S., it has to get the approval from local aviation authorities. For example, the FAA has to approve your plane if you want to sell it or fly it in the U.S. While we were working to get the ARJ21 its CAAC certification in China, the FAA conducted a shadow audit, which was mainly to examine the certification ability and methodology of the CAAC.
In that shadow audit, FAA selectively examined some items, like the natural icing flight test, the static original equipment manufacturer test, the maximum brake energy test, VMU test, etc., and sent staff to follow and examine the whole process of test basics, test guideline, methodologies, experiments, equipments and the result. After the ARJ21 got certification in China, the shadow certification also finished, and they will start another audit on recognition.
However, in some countries in Southeast Asia and Africa, certifications issued by CAAC are recognized locally, which means that Chinese-made and certified aircraft can fly in those countries.
China Knowledge@Wharton: After certification, what will you have to do next in terms of commercial efforts? And how long do you expect it will to recoup the high costs invested in this project?
Luo: Aircraft production is an industry with massive investment, high risks, and slow returns. It’s a long journey from experiments in labs to formally producing a plane, and after that to win a piece of the aircraft market. And it can take years beyond to achieve commercial success.
At present, we’ve received 308 orders for the ARJ21. After the delivery of the first one, COMAC hopes to quickly reach an annual output of 15 aircraft, and, longer term, to increase that to 50 planes a year.
For the ARJ21, we set three goals: The first one was technical success, which was met when we obtained type certification. The second one was market success: producing the aircraft with cost controls, commercial value and earning brand recognition in the market — and then winning a certain market share. The third one was commercial success: selling aircraft that are competitive in the marketplace, and that can bring economic benefits for airline companies. At this moment, we have a long way to go before we hit goals two and three.
China Knowledge@Wharton: You mentioned that it takes a great deal of money to build a new aircraft, and that the returns are slow. Given that, why should China still try to get into this industry? Also, what percentage of this project involves independently developed Chinese technology?

“Aircraft production is an industry with massive investment, high risks, and slow returns. It’s a long journey from experiments in labs to formally producing a plane, and after that to win a piece of the aircraft market.”
Luo: To make our own aircraft will activate many upstream and downstream industries in areas such as materials production and high-end equipment manufacturing. We can also gradually build up a base of local suppliers in related industries, which is suitable in the context of the current stage of China’s aviation market.
Regarding independent technology, for the ARJ21, our primary suppliers include four domestic ones and 19 global companies. We also have nearly 100 secondary suppliers in China. Global airplane manufacturers like Boeing don’t design engines, and they don’t make rivets either; they purchase parts from many suppliers instead. Boeing has nearly 10,000 suppliers globally for its parts. For our planes, COMAC is the general designer, and we integrate the best technology available globally into them.
However, or next plane, the large aircraft C919, which is still in development, will have a higher level of domestic involvement. There are 36 Chinese research institutions taking part in the project, as well as more than 200 Chinese companies, including 16 material suppliers and 54 potential parts suppliers. Meanwhile, 16 global suppliers, among them GE, Honeywell and CFM, have built joint ventures with domestic companies on avionics, flight controls and other airborne systems.
China Knowledge@Wharton: Can you talk a little more about the C919 and how it’s progressing?
Luo: The C919 is a 150-seat, single-channel, narrow-body aircraft, which will compete with the Boeing 737 and the Airbus 320. This is a class of aircraft that’s most in demand in China and the global civil aviation market.
So far, the C919 has finished the project demonstration phase, the demonstration of feasibilityand predevelopment, and it’s now moving into the engineering development stage. Assembly has begun on the first craft, and it’s expected that we will conduct its first flight by the end of 2015. Then, we will move into the flight-test certification process.
China’s major airlines, including China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Hainan Airlines and some aircraft leasing companies have already ordered C919s. Huaxia Financing Leasing Co. has just signed a contract with us to purchase 20 C919s, which has boosted our client list up to 18 companies, and 450 total orders for the aircraft.

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