Focus on rankings hurts children's education
Quote from W. Edwards Deming:Forces of Destruction: grades in school, merit system, incentive pay, business plans, quotas.
「華人戴明學院」是戴明哲學的學習共同體 ,致力於淵博型智識系統的研究、推廣和運用。 The purpose of this blog is to advance the ideas and ideals of W. Edwards Deming.
I wrote a quick perl program to simulate a dice roll and plugged the output into gnuplot. The average was 6.917, sd=2.37As long as you have access to a good pseudo-random number generator, you can code this up. (It's more spectacular to flummox people by doing the by-hand version with real dice, of course, but we can save that for when we're doing Congressional testimony.) From what I can tell, nilram's experiment involved 1000 rolls of the dice. I had done this some time ago with my own code and had rolled only 100, but produced the same results (though I rounded it off a bit more strongly, producing a mean of 6.9 and a standard deviation of 2.3). I'm too lazy this morning to actually go directly compute the standard deviation from the system histogram, but given that we got the same results from the same approach, I'd say that these are the real results for this statistical system.
What point are you trying to make by recording a bunch of dice rolls?Prof. Skanderbeg gave out the homework assignment of basically creating a "trend chart" (or control chart) for the simple system of the two dice. If you do this, you will actually see sections that will seem to show a "trend" of some sort - an apparently significant trend of the numbers rising or falling. If you haven't tried this yourself, it's a highly recommended learning exercise - literally one of the most enlightening (about nature) that one can do.
Given the degree of extrapolation required to determine the average temperature of the earth at any given point in time, random rolls of the dice would be about as accurate at predicting future climate change as the current computer models.Yes, that's more or less the point. If the system is behaving statistically, it will show apparent sequential trends that in reality are mirages. The dice experiment demonstrates that - and if you look at statistical and sequential temperature data, you see the exact same behavior!
Red Paint causes global warming!I'm assuming this is actually a report of results. But it basically gets the point. If you take some red dice and also some green dice and roll them independently, they can both have the exact same bulk statistical behavior - yet they can show completely different apparent trends!
I'm serious! In clinical trials, red dice show HIGHER average climate temperatures than any other color!
Gallup has developed a powerful new approach to measuring and managing human performance -- HumanSigma.
"When The Gallup Organization applied Six Sigma principles to sales and service groups at several companies, it learned how much performance variation exists between seemingly similar work groups. Managing that variability can raise overall performance by orders of magnitude and create organic growth."
-- from "Manage Your Human Sigma," Harvard Business Review, July/August 2005其實這是很淺顯的 Deming 哲學的一小部分 但是我想記的是 Kevin 在07年10/23 幫助我們download這篇
Saturday, October 20, 2007 9:41 A.M. |
Quote from W. Edwards Deming: What makes a scientist great is the care that he takes in telling you what is wrong with his results, so that you will not misuse them. |
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Pundits and professors have been trying for decades to figure out what makes Toyota (TM) so successful—but many may have been looking in the wrong places. In his new book, How Toyota Became #1 (Portfolio; November, 2007), David Magee convincingly argues that the spirit of Toyota people, as much as anything, has determined Toyota's success.
Toyota's performance (BusinessWeek.com, 04/24/07) has been stunning. The company has not lost money in a single quarter since 1951. As U.S. automotive powerhouses are drowning in red ink, Toyota earned its highest ever net profit in 2006—$17 billion.
So what keeps Toyota growing and improving year after year? In his book, Magee suggests the driver is a handful of principles embedded deeply in the company, including a respect for people, a willingness to take a long-term view, and the determination to improve the business a little bit every day.
As I read Magee's book one idea kept surfacing in my mind. Throughout its history, Toyota appears to have put an emphasis on an important but oft-overlooked characteristic: Curiosity. You can trace Toyota's institutionalized curiosity back to its founder, Sakichi Toyoda (1867-1930), who became interested in improving the effectiveness of weaving looms, and who went on to revolutionize weaving technology in Japan and secure more than 100 patents on his ideas. You might say Toyota's founder was "loopy" for looms. Not content just to build the best looms in Japan, Toyoda traveled to Europe, toured leading Western loom makers, and carried key ideas back to Japan. Son Kiichiro Toyoda carried on his father's tradition of curiosity—and a visit to a Detroit auto plant in the 1920s inspired him to move a renamed Toyota into the car business.
For more than 70 years, Toyota's curiosity has allowed it to build, brick by brick, a commercial fortress. It has scanned the globe for the best ideas—from styling to manufacturing to quality management—and imbued those ideas with a power that often surprises even the people who came up with them in the first place.
Reading Magee's book I was reminded of the story of Bjarni Herjólfsson—the man who almost discovered the New World. En route to Greenland to visit family in 986, Herjólfsson was blown off course and ended up off the coast of Newfoundland. He and his crew sat in their boat and gazed at a huge, undiscovered continent—which, as it turned out, held some of the richest resources on earth. There was only one problem: Herjólfsson and his crew didn't go ashore. Instead, they turned their boats toward Greenland. After all, they were late for a meeting with family.
Herjólfsson told lots of people about this strange new land, but it would be more than 10 years before anyone would go to investigate—when Erik the Red would buy Herjólfsson's boat and explore, establishing the first European settlement in the New World.
What was the difference between the man who almost discovered the New World and the one who actually did? Simple. One was willing to go ashore, the other wasn't.
"Going ashore" appears to be a culture imperative at Toyota. W. Edwards Deming's concepts of quality management were in wide circulation in the 1950s, but it was Toyota engineers that "went ashore" with his ideas—developing the Toyota Production System, its patented manufacturing methodology. The conceptual ideas of quality management led the carmaker to pioneer such practices as design for manufacturing and lean production. In short, Toyota went ashore in the world of quality.
People in the automobile business had been talking for years about hybrid vehicles, sailing along the shores of the New World of automobile fuel economy. Once again, Toyota stepped up—and is expected to sell 430,000 Prius cars in 2007, a 40% jump over 2006 sales.
Perhaps the most important thing a leader of any organization can do is to try to encourage a spirit of going ashore. Too often in the world of work, people hurry from commitment to commitment without noticing the landscape around them—people and companies cruise right by amazing opportunities that are under their noses.
And going ashore is not just important to the behemoths like Toyota. I spent the past five years studying the performance of more than 7,000 growth companies. When I identified the top nine performers over a 23-year period and compared their operations to similar outfits with less impressive performance, one point stood out: Companies achieving breakthrough performance employed workers with great curiosity. These companies pioneered new products, discovered new markets, and created innovative approaches at a much faster rate than their competitors. They went ashore, and reaped the benefits of doing so.
Keith McFarland, a two-time technology CEO, is the founder of McFarland Strategy Partners in Sandy, Utah.
日本科学技術連盟(浜中順一理事長)は16日、総合的品質管理(TQM)活動の実施や研究で優れた業績をあげた経営者や研究者に贈るデミング賞本賞の 2007年度受賞者に、サンデン会長の牛久保雅美氏(72)を選んだ。11月14日に東京・大手町の経団連会館で授賞式を開く。
牛久保氏はサンデンで専務、副社長、社長を歴任。自社と国内外のグループ企業へのTQMの推進、普及、指導に長年携わり、TQMの発展に貢献してきたことが評価された。
2007年 華人Deming 學院年會
主題:我們這年的心得交換( 歡迎新朋友參加)
日期:10月14日(周日)0900-1900
地點:華人戴明博士研習中心
《新北投新民路一巷5號 6樓(過新民國中在新民路 25號後,左轉十公尺「貴園別莊」內;Tel. 02-2894 6100 ):開車很方便 附近新民國中巷有許多停車位》。捷運 (往)「淡水線」,在「北投站」下(不出站),直接過月台,轉「新北投」線即到。
費用:免費;自行負擔午/晚餐
報名:hcsimonl@gmail.com
大略想談一有趣的問題:老闆不表態支持情況下,部屬能有怎樣的作為;Peter 維強 「一粒種子的故事.」;Justing郭可以根我們說螺絲與茶葉的故事;鍾漢清談某苗栗牙科醫生如何經營出北台灣一片天……;
Quote from W. Edwards Deming:
2007年 華人Deming 學院年會
主題:我們這年的心得交換( 歡迎新朋友參加)
日期:10月14日(周日)0900-1900
地點:華人戴明博士研習中心
《新北投新民路一巷5號 6樓(過新民國中在新民路 25號後,左轉十公尺「貴園別莊」內;
Tel. 02-2894 6100 ):開車很方便 附近新民國中巷有許多停車位》。捷運 (往)「淡水線」,在「北投站」下(不出站),直接過月台,轉「新北投」線即到。
費用:免費;自行負擔午/晚餐
報名:
大略:
徐歷昌先生想談一有趣的問題:老闆不表態支持情況下,部屬能有怎樣的改善作為;
Peter 維強 「一粒種子的故事及發展」;
Justing郭可以根我們說螺絲與茶葉的故事;
鍾漢清談某苗栗牙科醫生如何經營出北台灣一片天……;
開場白、歡迎詞(部分):
今年美國The W. Edwards Deming Institute 的秋會(Fall Conference)在10月中兩天(October 13-14, 2007),紀念活動主題為:合作共同探討通往未來的全面觀照之橋 ( To Explore Together A Wholistic Bridge To The Future)。學院成立的宗旨,效法美國的,相當高遠:The aim of the Institute is to foster understanding of The Deming System of Profound Knowledge™ to advance commerce, prosperity and peace.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007 12:09 P.M. |
Quote from W. Edwards Deming: We do not know what quality is. |
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我想,Deming博士的System of Profound Knowledge™,可以從許多角度來探討。我今年姑且提出超越狹義品質、廣義品質(small quality、big quality)的方式,採用「深義品質文化」來討論2007年的世界大趨勢(參考:狹義文化、廣義文化、深義文化等,這三個層次由狹而廣,由表及里,由淺入深,共同組成一個立體的文化定義和文化類型的分析模式:而「深義文化」則最終構成一個民族的靈魂。(周一良 "郊叟曝言"(北京:新世界出版社,2001,頁74)))
10月是Deming博士之生日。我們早期(1995-97--這年會在這三屆,最為踴躍活潑,其中一次,還是與尋智專業顧問公司的張忠樸學長合辦的(桃園中信大飯店),我最為感佩),紀念活動是採取在忌日(12月底)方式。後來,發現美國採取的方式,我們認為最合理,就從善如流,也根著挪到十月—我們1996年十月,特別與柑園國中團隊合作交流,它的成果之一可以參考2007年”品質月刊”連載的三次的『柑園國中之戴明學校』。
這,總讓人想起我們去年的年會之效應。因為有David Hsu的加入、激動,所以我在2007年發行了一百多期『品質時報』 (Quality Times)(放在「中文品質百科」和「品質論壇」兩網誌(blogs)之中—這blogs也是2007年上半年主要耕耘的對象;之後我們將主力放在可以偶爾產生廣告收益的blogs上頭)。當然,Stanley在尋智網站紀念忠樸逝世五周年的網路活動,也如期舉行中。
將這blog取名”台灣戴明圈: A Taiwanese Deming Circle”是有些故事的。
大約在1998年中,英國的David Kerridge教授、法國的
在台灣,我自己發行過幾份的”戴明通信錄”,可能連檔案都沒好好保持。
不過我2006年還夢想出版一雙月刊,就想取名”台灣戴明圈: A Taiwanese Deming Circle”。完成到8成,我還是放棄。
我們產業界的人都知道品管圈。英文family circle 指近親圈子。哲學界上有所謂「維也納圈」的。總之,他們往來都是「圈內人」。
熊先生與郭先生都是我們6-7年來的親密朋友,他們都是戴明哲學的信徒—郭先生從台南來參加,真是很難得的。我們說過,David去年起重新加入我們的陣營,使得我們更茁壯;他與我在1990年就是同事。今天他的講題就相當有趣。我們還有新朋友:翁先生、陳先生…….大家難得在此聚會、交換些心得。此地秋高氣爽,最宜交誼。歡迎大家……
參考 2007年8月16日 星期四:Deming Medal (2007) – Peter R. Scholtes and his books
2007/10/5 讀The Economist 關於Hillary的專文,其中說到2008年美國新總統要具備的一種特質是要能與同盟者合作,醫治因為這7-8年美國採取強硬/暴力方式在國際間所造成的關係和形象之創傷。 子標題為Hillary the healer?
The third challenge for the next American president requires a different set of qualities: he or she will have to be a healer, both at home and abroad.
這種觀念在組織層面在Peter Scholtes 在The Leader Handbook 提出 Healing Organization之概念,我將它翻譯為「康復式組織」。
我想這是Deming 哲學更特別的應用例:90年代以來,美國許多大公司多裁員等等傷心事,所以這「康復式組織」將關懷組織之健康和員工之福祉等推向另一「組織心理學」之層次。
想起Deming曾說他是愛國的:作一辭條 patriotism
愛國情操 (主義) --愛國 以其為榮 (when you love your country and are proud of it)
這要談顧炎武的:亡國 (易性改號)與亡天下(仁義充塞而至於相率食人 人將相食)
什麼"由於千百年各自的組祖國相隔離而形成的深厚感情" (列寧) 都是修辭而已
ATTENTION, please: the winner of the 2008 Do-Over and Do-Again Award (known as “The Do-Do”) is the 2008 Ford Taurus and Taurus X.
The Do-Do recognizes the automaker who tries the hardest to compensate for not having taken full advantage of the opportunity when originally introducing a vehicle. And the Taurus and Taurus X were the odds-on favorites to win the Do-Do this year — most likely because I created the award with these very same vehicles in mind.
To understand the significance of this prestigious (aren’t they all?) award, it may be helpful to review a few basics.
Consumers who thought the Taurus was dead are right. It was replaced by the Ford Five Hundred, which was introduced as a 2005 model (though in fact Ford continued to turn out Tauri until October 2006 for the low-margin fleet market). At the same time, Ford introduced a crossover-wagon variant called the Freestyle.
But when the Five Hundred didn’t catch on, Ford decided to try an increasingly popular tactic: resurrecting the name of a well-known vehicle. That’s how the 2008 Five Hundred became the Taurus and the Freestyle became the Taurus X. It is unclear whether the Pinto or Mustang II names were ever considered.
A big reason Ford execs give for the name change is that “Taurus” is more familiar, but somebody apparently forgot to tell the salespeople. A late-August survey of about 300 Ford salespeople in 27 markets found 81 percent were not consistently calling the new vehicles “Taurus,” according to CNW Marketing Research of Bandon, Ore. About 20 percent admitted they always called the Taurus the Five Hundred.
In fairness, this is not just a name game. A lot of improvements have been made to the 2008 Taurus. Still, Ford redefines elasticity in the way it stretches the point with ads that declare the car to be the “all-new Taurus.”
There are two Taurus sedan models, the SEL and the Limited. Each is available with either front-wheel drive or all-wheel drive. The front-wheel drive SEL is $23,995, which includes plenty of standard equipment; one could stop there and not feel deprived. The Limited is fancier, with features including leather upholstery and a price starting at $27,595.
For the Taurus X, there are three trim levels: SEL, Eddie Bauer and Limited. The SEL is $27,365; the Eddie Bauer is $29,720 and the Limited is $30,700.
Those who face snow-covered hills can get all-wheel-drive versions of either the Taurus or the X for another $1,850. I tested a Taurus Limited with all-wheel drive. It had a base price of $29,445 and options including an easy-to-use navigation system ($1,995) and electronic stability control ($495), bringing the total to $32,605.
Later I tried a Taurus X Limited with all-wheel drive and a base price of $32,550. But Ford loaded that car up with options, including a navigation system, DVD player ($995) and the Limited Ultimate Package with a power liftgate and heated second-row seats ($825). The total came to $38,160.
The exteriors have been reworked, with the most noticeable change being the three-bar chrome grille that is becoming the shiny new face of Ford. When the Five Hundred and Freestyle were introduced, some top Ford execs worried that they looked too conservative, and this grille was the antidote.
There are no meaningful changes in the exterior or interior dimensions, so the sedan still has a huge expanse of legroom in the second row. In the Taurus X wagon, the second row legroom comes close to matching the sedan, but only when the second-row seat — which moves forward and backward 3.5 inches — is all the way back. Unfortunately when the second row is in its rearmost position, the third row is best suited to a small child.
Access to the third row is made easier because the second-row seats can be easily flipped forward. There is even a power seat-flipping option. But getting to the third row still takes the kind of hip-swivel-and-twist maneuver that is best left to youngsters or supple adults.
The sedan’s trunk is an enormous 21 cubic feet, which makes the luggage compartments of the main competitors from Honda, Toyota and Chrysler look more like ill-placed gloveboxes. And there is an ample amount of cargo space behind the third row in the Taurus X.
The interiors also look a little nicer, have more soundproofing and are comfortable places to be. Still, some of the heating and ventilation controls are too small, requiring a search-to-deploy approach.
The most important change is the switch to a more powerful (263 horsepower) 3.5-liter V-6 engine, said Michael Liubakka, the vehicle engineering manager for both the sedan and wagon.
Originally the Five Hundred and Freestyle came with a 3-liter V-6 rated at a mere 203 horsepower, which didn’t seem like much for such large vehicles. Ford executives scoffed at the scoffers, insisting there would be plenty of power. They suggested that the V-6 would work particularly well with Ford’s new continuously variable transmission because its use of belts — instead of a limited number of gears — would provide near-instant acceleration.
So much for Ford’s claims: the 3-liter V-6 is gone, along with the much-promoted variable transmission, which has been replaced with a new six-speed automatic developed jointly with General Motors.
The 60 extra horses are offset a little because the Taurus and Taurus X weigh some 75 to 100 pounds more. That pushes the all-wheel-drive Taurus X to about 4,200 pounds and the all-wheel-drive Taurus to 3,930 pounds.
Nevertheless, the new engine gives these vehicles the acceleration they needed from the beginning, albeit at the cost of scary thrills when merging onto a busy Interstate. Car and Driver magazine clocked the front-drive Taurus sedan at 6.8 seconds from zero to 60 m.p.h., about a second faster — a significant improvement — than the old Five Hundred.
In addition, the 3.5-liter V-6 plays well with the six-speed automatic, which goes about its gear-to-gear business in an eager and generally refined way.
The all-wheel-drive sedan is rated at 17 m.p.g. in the city and 24 m.p.g. on the highway, according to the Environmental Protection Agency’s new ratings, which try to be more realistic. The front-drive sedan is rated at 18 m.p.g. city and 28 m.p.g. highway. The Taurus X is rated at 16 m.p.g. city and 24 m.p.g. highway with front-wheel drive and 15/22 with all-wheel drive.
From the beginning, the Five Hundred and Freestyle got good marks for their handling, although there were a few complaints that the ride was a bit stiff. The suspensions of the Taurus and Taurus X have been reworked with the goal of improving ride quality without a loss of handling prowess, Mr. Liubakka said.
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Indeed, the Taurus and Taurus X ride comfortably on rough surfaces and still handle surprisingly well for their size. They are not agile enough to delude the driver into imagining these are smaller vehicles. But it is reassuring to know that despite their bulk they can respond quickly under demanding circumstances like a surprisingly sharp turn.
The sedan’s capability was demonstrated while traveling briskly near Franconia, N.H., when a turn that appeared to be gentle suddenly hooked around and became much tighter. At the same time, instead of the road having nice, nurturing banking to help guide the car through the turn, the road was off camber. That means it was angled down and away as if the goal was to flummox suspensions and fling vehicles into the woods. The all-wheel-drive Taurus hunkered down and completed the turn without any trauma.
Standard safety equipment includes antilock brakes as well as air curtains, which cover the side windows and offer head protection in a side-impact crash. The front seats also have seat-mounted air bags for chest protection. Studies have shown such equipment can significantly improve the chances of surviving a side-impact crash.
Another established lifesaver, electronic stability control, is standard only on the Taurus X. On the other models — including the fancy Limited version of the sedan — it is a $495 option. That’s an odd decision for a company that boasts about its emphasis on safety. Even the least expensive Honda Accord sedan comes with electronic stability control as standard fare, although it is an option on all Toyota Camrys except the Hybrid, on which it is standard.
The Taurus (and its close cousin, the Mercury Sable) is the top-rated family sedan in the severe front, side and rear crash tests conducted by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety; and when equipped with electronic stability control it gets the ultimate accolade of Top Safety Pick.
The Taurus X also gets the Top Safety Pick designation — one of only three domestic midsize S.U.V.’s to get that label. The other two are also from Ford: the Edge and the Lincoln MKX.
In the end, the 2008 Taurus and Taurus X are attractive vehicles, but not benchmarks. If only Ford had introduced the Five Hundred and Freestyle with these upgrades, the cars could have been blockbusters, the names destined to be legendary instead of historical footnotes.
But Ford fumbled badly and gave competitors like G.M. time to field ultra-competitive vehicles like the Buick Enclave, while Chrysler came out with its 300 and Dodge Charger sedans and Toyota and Honda created larger Camrys and Accords. It was generous of Ford to provide this grace period, but perhaps charity should have begun at home.
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十月,秋高氣爽、風光好。我們(回)到新北投,再次享受友情,緬懷花間笑語聲。
催客聞山響(王維)。
Quote: "All things on earth point home in old October: sailors to sea, travellers to walls and fences, hunters to field and hollow and the long voice of the hounds, the lover to the love he has forsaken." — Thomas Wolfe