「華人戴明學院」是戴明哲學的學習共同體 ,致力於淵博型智識系統的研究、推廣和運用。 The purpose of this blog is to advance the ideas and ideals of W. Edwards Deming.

2007年10月29日 星期一

Forces of Destruction

Focus on rankings hurts children's education

Quote from W. Edwards Deming:
Forces of Destruction: grades in school, merit system, incentive pay, business plans, quotas.

1029 2007 交流

1029 2007 交流

恭喜:Kevin Lin “雷虎” 公司履新

peter熊來談presentations 交流 blogs和copy/小畫家

Playing At Dice - What That "Weekend Exercise" Was All About


Playing At Dice - What That "Weekend Exercise" Was All About

By Skanderbeg Posted in Comments (28) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »

'Morning, class!!
Prof. Skanderbeg was pleased to see that some of the readership actually took up the challenge of doing the homework assignment - and the exercise was valuable, since (judging by the comments) it did seem to be getting the point across.
Just to explain what that was all about, I thought I'd put some comments in a separate post.
There are basically three items to explain.

Why Dice?
The short take is that using a pair of dice and summing up the results hands you about the simplest possible physical "system" that actually presents the real behavior of a "natural system" that is behaving statistically (rather than deterministically) - that is, it gives you a statistically-correct probability density function.
If you have one die, the probability density function is boring and trivial - each value has an equal 1/6th probability. But with two dice and the addition of the results, you get a very good and properly-behaved statistical system. That is, if you histogram-out the 36 possible additive combinations, there is a stable statistical mean value (7.0), and the distribution of other probabilities (out to 2 and 12) follows a Gaussian distribution.... along with proper standard deviation behavior and so forth. So it's about the cheapest and easiest laboratory for examining the behavior of statistical systems (both natural and man-made).

Bulk Statistics
If a system is behaving "statistically," it will show a stable central mean, a Gaussian statistical distribution, and proper allocation of standard deviations. The two-dice system does this.
As "nilram" noted....
I wrote a quick perl program to simulate a dice roll and plugged the output into gnuplot. The average was 6.917, sd=2.37
As long as you have access to a good pseudo-random number generator, you can code this up. (It's more spectacular to flummox people by doing the by-hand version with real dice, of course, but we can save that for when we're doing Congressional testimony.) From what I can tell, nilram's experiment involved 1000 rolls of the dice. I had done this some time ago with my own code and had rolled only 100, but produced the same results (though I rounded it off a bit more strongly, producing a mean of 6.9 and a standard deviation of 2.3). I'm too lazy this morning to actually go directly compute the standard deviation from the system histogram, but given that we got the same results from the same approach, I'd say that these are the real results for this statistical system.
The "bottom line" here is that a statistical system must be described in terms of not just its mean (average), but also in terms of its standard deviations. This two-dice system is very well-behaved and comprehensible.... but note that the standard deviation is rather large. That's the rub about dealing with "climate" and such - if you go look at any measured temperature data, the standard deviations (of say the high temperature for a particular place on a particular calendar date over a period of say a century) are huge - one standard deviation is at least multiple degrees, and frequently reaches double digits. This calls into question the sanity of obsessing over various forms of "data processing" that boil down to blind panic over apparent variations of fractions of a degree.

Sequential Plotting - The "Trend Chart"
So we have shown that we have a nice, simple statistical system to study and benchmark against - the humble pair-of-dice. Nothing strange about it.
Or is there? This gets us into the slightly wacky world of statistical process control (SPC). This is important stuff, and we should give much credit to Walter Shewhart and his protege W. Edwards Deming for their insights in this field. The name "Deming" might ring a bell, even though (sadly) he is no longer with us; he is the famous "quality guru" who finally got his due in the 1980s. He was the first to realize the implications of SPC for manufacturing; he got brushed off in the U.S. (especially by Detroit), but got a ready audience in Japan, where his ideas were adopted enthusiastically by the nascent Japanese auto industry.... and the rest is history.
The short take (too short) is that in a manufacturing process, the first goal is to create a stable process - that is, one that is (of course) meeting the basic targets but which has been "stabilized" - that is, under monitoring, it is behaving statistically, with a stable central statistical mean, a Gaussian profile to the bulk data, and reasonable standard deviations. The first task in stabilization is to get the mean to the right place, and then to get the magnitude of the standard deviations down to an acceptable level - without, of course, dorking up the stability along the way. When that has been achieved, the process is healthy and ready for routine manufacturing use.
But here is where the Deming-based "fun" really starts. You need to have ways of deciding if the process is indeed stabilized - and, perhaps more importantly in the long run, if a "stabilized" process is actually remain stable (statistically), or if it is actually systematically drifting away from the desired stability - and heading toward moving away from acceptability.
This is where SPC comes into play. The simplest approach is to identify a few things that you can actually measure well and measure sequentially - the thickness of a thin film layer, the width of a metal rod, whatever. As "stuff" comes along, you sequentially measure a list of items, and plot the trend that they show.
When you make plots of this sort, you can start to see trends - and this is where Deming's brilliant insight came into play. A well-behaved, well-centered statistical system will, when examined "sequentially," appear to show trends that look like "drift." This is how nature behaves, but if people don't know that, they tend to panic. They see an apparent trend, think that the manufacturing process is drifting, and make changes to the process to correct the "drift." Now they really have changed the process, but they've basically dorked it and it then does become broken - to the great cost of the manufacturing, who suddenly can't make things - as the engineers involved run around in circles chasing the "trend" that really isn't there.
That's the challenge of SPC - the need to be able to determine if some apparent "trend" represents a real, systematic drift of the process - or if it's just a statistical fluctuation.
Does that challenge sound at all familiar in the "climate change" context?
As "bennjneb" asked,
What point are you trying to make by recording a bunch of dice rolls?
Prof. Skanderbeg gave out the homework assignment of basically creating a "trend chart" (or control chart) for the simple system of the two dice. If you do this, you will actually see sections that will seem to show a "trend" of some sort - an apparently significant trend of the numbers rising or falling. If you haven't tried this yourself, it's a highly recommended learning exercise - literally one of the most enlightening (about nature) that one can do.
So as "rdbwiggins" replied,
Given the degree of extrapolation required to determine the average temperature of the earth at any given point in time, random rolls of the dice would be about as accurate at predicting future climate change as the current computer models.
Yes, that's more or less the point. If the system is behaving statistically, it will show apparent sequential trends that in reality are mirages. The dice experiment demonstrates that - and if you look at statistical and sequential temperature data, you see the exact same behavior!
Now, "Neil Stevens" said something really interesting:
Red Paint causes global warming!
I'm serious! In clinical trials, red dice show HIGHER average climate temperatures than any other color!
I'm assuming this is actually a report of results. But it basically gets the point. If you take some red dice and also some green dice and roll them independently, they can both have the exact same bulk statistical behavior - yet they can show completely different apparent trends!
This is why we must be careful with any "data" regarding climate and/or temperature and/or whatever. We are looking at a system that is behaving statistically - not deterministically. Trying to impose determinism onto a statistically-behaving system leads to conclusions that are comical - except when they cause you to "intervene" and take the manufactured-product yield to zero.... or to destroy the global economy and global society.
(N.b. I'm aware of Nassim Taleb's book "Fooled by Randomness" - in fact, a copy of it is in my "travel reading stack" and will come to the top on some plane at some point. His "The Black Swan" seems to be showing up everywhere - I have that as well, but haven't read it yet either. The touchstone on this for Prof. Skanderbeg was Henry Neave's "The Deming Dimension," which looked at SPC in manufacturing and then went beyond to apply it to other things. Later in his long and productive life, Dr. Deming got interested in notions of how SPC principles were catastrophically not being understood in a variety of other settings. I really wish he were alive today to comment on SPC and "climate change." I honestly believe that he'd produce an analysis much like this one.)
Class dismissed!!

2007年10月24日 星期三

反對"口號" 之目的

Deming 反對"口號" 不過與它相對的 不是指所謂的 "詳細內容"--這裡的 specifics

Viewpoint: Specifics, not slogans, are what China needs
International Herald Tribune - France
Whether by coincidence or design, the US Congress gave the spiritual leader of Tibet its highest civilian award the same week that China hosted its National ...

那麼 請問是什麼呢?

2007年10月23日 星期二

2007 年 的 Human Sigma

前幾天發現Human Sigma有中文翻譯

Gallup has developed a powerful new approach to measuring and managing human performance -- HumanSigma.

"When The Gallup Organization applied Six Sigma principles to sales and service groups at several companies, it learned how much performance variation exists between seemingly similar work groups. Managing that variability can raise overall performance by orders of magnitude and create organic growth."
-- from "Manage Your Human Sigma," Harvard Business Review, July/August 2005其實這是很淺顯的 Deming 哲學的一小部分 但是我想記的是 Kevin 在07年10/23 幫助我們download這篇


最近兩天與Bill Scherkenbach 討論 The WED Institute每日引言

causes and symptoms
Quote from W. Edwards Deming:

Manage the cause, not the result.
菩薩重因 眾生重果 cause and effect (diagram)

cause━━ n. 原因, もと; 理由 ((to do)); 動機 ((for)); 【法】訴訟(の事由); 事件; 問題; 大義, 主義, 主張; 名分; 大目的; 運動.

symptom━━ n. 徴候, しるし; 【医】症候.

Our customers should take joy in our products and services.

Britain needs cheering up.The UK - according to official statistics- suffers much higher levels of depression and anxiety than the restof Europe. The government wants to remedy the problem. It plans toprovide more psychological counselling on the state-run NationalHealth Service. But critics say that counselling is an ineffectivetreatment and that the government should address the causes ofdepression rather than trying to deal only with its symptoms. FromLondon Stephen Beard reports:

2007年10月20日 星期六

Our customers should take joy in our products and services.

Quote from W. Edwards Deming:
Our customers should take joy in our products and services.


2007年10月19日 星期五

the care that he takes in telling you

Saturday, October 20, 2007 9:41 A.M.

Quote from W. Edwards Deming:
What makes a scientist great is the care that he takes in telling you what is wrong with his results, so that you will not misuse them.

W. Edwards Deming Institute

The W. Edwards Deming Institute® is a nonprofit organization that was founded in 1993 by noted consultant Dr. W. Edwards Deming.

The aim of the Institute is to foster understanding of The Deming System of Profound Knowledge™ to advance commerce, prosperity and peace.

Participation in The W. Edwards Deming Institute® means that we share Dr. Deming's vision of a better world. We participate because we strive, with joy, to carry on the work that he began. We seek to conduct ourselves in a manner consistent with his high moral and ethical standards, professional and personal integrity, and commitment to lifelong learning. We do this solely from our dedication to the philosophy and values of Dr. Deming and our belief that together, with humility, we can and will make a difference in the quality of life for everyone.

W. Edwards Deming Institute

Toyota went ashore in the world of quality

Leadership October 19, 2007, 11:15AM EST text size: TT

How Curiosity Empowers Toyota

The carmaker's determined willingness to try new ideas has allowed it to build a commercial fortress and an astonishing record of success

Pundits and professors have been trying for decades to figure out what makes Toyota (TM) so successful—but many may have been looking in the wrong places. In his new book, How Toyota Became #1 (Portfolio; November, 2007), David Magee convincingly argues that the spirit of Toyota people, as much as anything, has determined Toyota's success.

Toyota's performance (BusinessWeek.com, 04/24/07) has been stunning. The company has not lost money in a single quarter since 1951. As U.S. automotive powerhouses are drowning in red ink, Toyota earned its highest ever net profit in 2006—$17 billion.

So what keeps Toyota growing and improving year after year? In his book, Magee suggests the driver is a handful of principles embedded deeply in the company, including a respect for people, a willingness to take a long-term view, and the determination to improve the business a little bit every day.

As I read Magee's book one idea kept surfacing in my mind. Throughout its history, Toyota appears to have put an emphasis on an important but oft-overlooked characteristic: Curiosity. You can trace Toyota's institutionalized curiosity back to its founder, Sakichi Toyoda (1867-1930), who became interested in improving the effectiveness of weaving looms, and who went on to revolutionize weaving technology in Japan and secure more than 100 patents on his ideas. You might say Toyota's founder was "loopy" for looms. Not content just to build the best looms in Japan, Toyoda traveled to Europe, toured leading Western loom makers, and carried key ideas back to Japan. Son Kiichiro Toyoda carried on his father's tradition of curiosity—and a visit to a Detroit auto plant in the 1920s inspired him to move a renamed Toyota into the car business.

For more than 70 years, Toyota's curiosity has allowed it to build, brick by brick, a commercial fortress. It has scanned the globe for the best ideas—from styling to manufacturing to quality management—and imbued those ideas with a power that often surprises even the people who came up with them in the first place.

Late for a Meeting

Reading Magee's book I was reminded of the story of Bjarni Herjólfsson—the man who almost discovered the New World. En route to Greenland to visit family in 986, Herjólfsson was blown off course and ended up off the coast of Newfoundland. He and his crew sat in their boat and gazed at a huge, undiscovered continent—which, as it turned out, held some of the richest resources on earth. There was only one problem: Herjólfsson and his crew didn't go ashore. Instead, they turned their boats toward Greenland. After all, they were late for a meeting with family.

Herjólfsson told lots of people about this strange new land, but it would be more than 10 years before anyone would go to investigate—when Erik the Red would buy Herjólfsson's boat and explore, establishing the first European settlement in the New World.

What was the difference between the man who almost discovered the New World and the one who actually did? Simple. One was willing to go ashore, the other wasn't.

"Going ashore" appears to be a culture imperative at Toyota. W. Edwards Deming's concepts of quality management were in wide circulation in the 1950s, but it was Toyota engineers that "went ashore" with his ideas—developing the Toyota Production System, its patented manufacturing methodology. The conceptual ideas of quality management led the carmaker to pioneer such practices as design for manufacturing and lean production. In short, Toyota went ashore in the world of quality.

Cruising Right By

People in the automobile business had been talking for years about hybrid vehicles, sailing along the shores of the New World of automobile fuel economy. Once again, Toyota stepped up—and is expected to sell 430,000 Prius cars in 2007, a 40% jump over 2006 sales.

Perhaps the most important thing a leader of any organization can do is to try to encourage a spirit of going ashore. Too often in the world of work, people hurry from commitment to commitment without noticing the landscape around them—people and companies cruise right by amazing opportunities that are under their noses.

And going ashore is not just important to the behemoths like Toyota. I spent the past five years studying the performance of more than 7,000 growth companies. When I identified the top nine performers over a 23-year period and compared their operations to similar outfits with less impressive performance, one point stood out: Companies achieving breakthrough performance employed workers with great curiosity. These companies pioneered new products, discovered new markets, and created innovative approaches at a much faster rate than their competitors. They went ashore, and reaped the benefits of doing so.

Keith McFarland, a two-time technology CEO, is the founder of McFarland Strategy Partners in Sandy, Utah.

2007年10月18日 星期四

Out of the Crisis: Is the US Treasury Crossing Into 'Moral Hazard ...

Out of the Crisis: Is the US Treasury Crossing Into 'Moral Hazard ...
Seeking Alpha - New York,NY,USA
NB: The title is a reference to and in honor of W. Edwards Deming, one of the true geniuses in the fields of process engineering and organizational ...

2007年10月16日 星期二

2007 The Deming Prize * 日経品質管理文献賞

2007 The Deming Prize * 日経品質管理文献賞


 日本科学技術連盟(浜中順一理事長)は16日、総合的品質管理(TQM)活動の実施や研究で優れた業績をあげた経営者や研究者に贈るデミング賞本賞の 2007年度受賞者に、サンデン会長の牛久保雅美氏(72)を選んだ。11月14日に東京・大手町の経団連会館で授賞式を開く。


  TQMに関する優れた書籍に贈る日経品質管理文献賞には、「強みを磨き弱みを改革 限りないダントツ経営への挑戦」(坂根正弘著、日科技連出版社)、 「マネジメントシステムの審査・評価に携わる人のためのTQMの基本」(中条武志ら編著、同)、「教育の質向上のための品質システム工学的データ分析―個 人差の解析を中心として」(椿美智子著、現代図書)を選んだ。(18:55)2007/10/16


在一消失了的(網) 往頁

戴明顧問公司-最新消息 news 20021020

(…… /看板 它影射我們第一講中追求政策貫徹或生 .. )

經營新人文 管理

-The world of a thinking gardener and his friends.

A Daily Newsletter &Commentaries ;

Better THINKING for better world



2007年10月14日 星期日

2007年 華人Deming 學院年會

Kevin Lin 周六從台中來 鼓勵 買"戴明領導手冊"多本
Justing Kuo 周日從台中來 送好茶 (Kevin說 它的可運作定義是什麼)
徐歷昌先生從楊梅來 請我們客家料理
熊先生(Peter)的午餐 客家菜 鈦金屬產業
翁先生的Toyota 與Deming之故事.....

2007 華人Deming 學院年會

主題:我們這年的心得交換( 歡迎新朋友參加)


《新北投新民路一巷5 6樓(過新民國中在新民 25號後,左轉十公尺「貴園別莊」內;Tel. 02-2894 6100 ):開車很方便 附近新民國中巷有許多停車位》。捷運 ()「淡水線」,在「北投站」下(不出站),直接過月台,轉「新北投」線即到。



大略想談一有趣的問題:老闆不表態支持情況下,部屬能有怎樣的作為;Peter 維強 一粒種子的故事.」;Justing郭可以根我們說螺絲與茶葉的故事;鍾漢清談某苗栗牙科醫生如何經營出北台灣一片天……

Quote from W. Edwards Deming:
Quote from W. Edwards Deming:
Forces of Destruction: grades in school, merit system, incentive pay, business plans, quotas.
"It is not necessary to change. Survival is not mandatory."

Any two people have different ideas of what is important.

Does experience help? NO! Not if we are doing the wrong things.
Management's job is to improve the system.

You can not achieve an aim unless you have a method.

If you do not know how to ask the right question, you discover nothing.

People care more for themselves when they contribute to the system.

If you destroy the people of a company, you do not have much left.

The customer invents nothing. New products and new services come from the producer.

Improve quality, you automatically improve productivity.

Retroactive management emphasizes the bottom line.

We can do something about our problems, or we can continue the way we are.

The process is not just the sum of its parts.

Off we go to the...Milky Way!

You can not plan to make a discovery. You do not plan innovation.

Judging people does not help them.

People need to know how their job contributes.

2007年10月11日 星期四

2007年 華人Deming 學院年會

2007 華人Deming 學院年會

主題:我們這年的心得交換( 歡迎新朋友參加)


《新北投新民路一巷5 6樓(過新民國中在新民 25號後,左轉十公尺「貴園別莊」內;

Tel. 02-2894 6100 ):開車很方便 附近新民國中巷有許多停車位》。捷運 ()「淡水線」,在「北投站」下(不出站),直接過月台,轉「新北投」線即到。





Peter 維強 一粒種子的故事及發展」;




今年美國The W. Edwards Deming Institute 的秋會(Fall Conference)在10月中兩天(October 13-14, 2007),紀念活動主題為:合作共同探討通往未來的全面觀照之橋 ( To Explore Together A Wholistic Bridge To The Future)。學院成立的宗旨,效法美國的,相當高遠:The aim of the Institute is to foster understanding of The Deming System of Profound Knowledge™ to advance commerce, prosperity and peace.

Wednesday, September 19, 2007 12:09 P.M.

Quote from W. Edwards Deming:
We do not know what quality is.

W. Edwards Deming Institute

The W. Edwards Deming Institute® is a nonprofit organization that was founded in 1993 by noted consultant Dr. W. Edwards Deming.

The aim of the Institute is to foster understanding of The Deming System of Profound Knowledge™ to advance commerce, prosperity and peace.

我想,Deming博士的System of Profound Knowledge,可以從許多角度來探討。我今年姑且提出超越狹義品質、廣義品質(small qualitybig quality)的方式,採用「深義品質文化」來討論2007年的世界大趨勢(參考:狹義文化、廣義文化、深義文化等,這三個層次由狹而廣,由表及里,由淺入深,共同組成一個立體的文化定義和文化類型的分析模式:而「深義文化」則最終構成一個民族的靈魂。(周一良 "郊叟曝言"(北京:新世界出版社,2001,頁74)


這,總讓人想起我們去年的年會之效應。因為有David Hsu的加入、激動,所以我在2007年發行了一百多期『品質時報』 Quality Times)(放在「中文品質百科」和「品質論壇」兩網誌(blogs)之中blogs也是2007年上半年主要耕耘的對象;之後我們將主力放在可以偶爾產生廣告收益的blogs上頭)。當然,Stanley在尋智網站紀念忠樸逝世五周年的網路活動,也如期舉行中。

台灣戴明圈: A Taiwanese Deming Circle

將這blog取名台灣戴明圈: A Taiwanese Deming Circle”是有些故事的。

大約在1998年中,英國的David Kerridge教授、法國的Jean-Marie Gogue先生、美國的(或南非的 我暫時忘記他大名)和我,我們想成立Deming Philosophy Circle,大家通信十來次,就「無疾而終」--當然,我們私下還保持聯絡。


不過我2006年還夢想出版一雙月刊,就想取名台灣戴明圈: A Taiwanese Deming Circle”。完成到8成,我還是放棄。

我們產業界的人都知道品管圈。英文family circle 指近親圈子。哲學界上有所謂「維也納圈」的。總之,他們往來都是「圈內人」。


2007年10月7日 星期日

2006年W. Edwards Deming 博士紀念交流會

2006年W. Edwards Deming 博士紀念交流會


《新北投新民路一巷5號6樓(過新民國中在新民路25號後,左轉十公尺「貴園別莊」內):開車很方便 附近新民國中巷有許多停車位》。

議程:1030-1100 見面認識
1230-1330- 午餐
1330-1430 改善與裝配設計(徐歷昌)
1440-1510 台灣尋智圈(何哲文:"新生代*看戴明理論與應用";上課中,文本納入討論)
1520-1540 {戴明思想在學校}(陳長仁、鍾漢清)
1540-1600 談螺絲業的品管(郭展銓)
1600-1630 其他主題和討論

報名:hcsimonl@gmail.com 02-23650127


* 新生代:我(hc)知道這 “Ctrl+c”和Ctrl+v”的說法,是從何先生處學來的。


Quote: "All things on earth point home in old October: sailors to sea, travellers to walls and fences, hunters to field and hollow and the long voice of the hounds, the lover to the love he has forsaken." — Thomas Wolfe
Posted by HC at 2006-10-03 06:27:20
「…….雷姆尼克是頗有遠見 的。他上任之初就強調《紐約客》應該恪守並發展其吸引讀者的基本要素——真實的、深度的、有爭議性的報導。在快速閱讀的時代,這一方針已經被許多出版人摒 棄,認為現時讀者是沒有興趣坐下來,靜心讀上一篇上萬字的,和他們日常生活或許並不密切相關的文章的。但是,“或許他們拿到雜誌,在自家的客廳裏坐下來翻 閱的時候,只會有耐心讀一些短小的城市文化新聞。而在第二天早上,坐在上班的火車、地鐵裏的時候,他們或許就會發現原來伊拉克的戰場上發生過了這樣的事 情……”雷姆尼克這樣解釋道。


雷姆尼克還是一位政治目光敏銳的編輯。2004年,從不參與美國政界選舉的《紐約客》破天荒地表示支持共和黨人約翰•克利競選美國總統。雷姆尼克說這樣做 的目的是為了讓更多的人認識和關注該雜誌。在評價伊拉克戰爭的時候,他認為美國大部分媒體都在說謊,他不希望《紐約客》也成為掩蓋戰爭事實的一員。在《時 代週刊》和《新聞週刊》越來越缺乏國內和國際報導的時候,《紐約客》的地位變得日益重要。


---“《纽约客》扭亏为盈迎来第二春” 作者:{文匯讀書周報,2006-09-29}特约撰稿乔艾报道乔艾

評: 這篇,將民主黨共和黨弄混了。「八十年以來所有的文章,共4109篇」其實是4000多期(OVER 4000issues),共8張DVD.。

這本The New Yorker雜誌似乎沒出現在Deming的著作中,不過他真是 “紐約客”,在紐約大學兼課50餘年,市內有小套房可招待來訪之師生。他還在市內被搶,拒絕搶匪而遭殃住院,這都有紀錄…..
Posted by HC at 2006-10-03 07:59:51
其實The New Yorker【1981年4月6日和13日兩期報導美國Three Mile Island的核電廠災難】 出現過在{轉危為安(OOTC) 末章}談工程師對於災難的預測是無法確切的。這牽涉到知識論。或一句話,人非神仙。

有趣的是,1982年版索引採取”The New Yorker”,而1986年版採取”Three Mile Island”。

本周開始發佈諾貝爾獎。Deming 在OOTC中說80位美國諾貝爾獎得主都有終生職的地位,工作完全有保障。如果員工無法安心在組織中工作,更談不上工作之品質。
我昨日寫”該唾棄 傑克.威爾許 的狂言”:

這位 傑克.威爾許 在聯合報與他太太推出什麼專欄,賣的盡是美國「可能」最爛的管理實務,並強姦行銷與策略字眼differentiation,應該予以譴責。

「來自吉隆坡的谷澤問:我真心支持依員工表現決定升遷及裁員的差異化管理制度(differentiation),把員工分為績效最優的前20%、績效中 間的70%,和較差的最後10%,建立「不長進則淘汰」的標準。但執行時很容易遭到百般抗拒,要如何解決?」(傑克.威爾許專欄》實施差異化管理 急不得 【經濟日報/編譯 謝璦竹】 2006.10.02 )

「……差異化管理是什麼?簡單地說,它的精神是「擁有最優秀人才的團隊才能取勝」。要是你不同意上述原則,永遠不可能了解差異化管理。如果你同意,那麼這 套制度可以提供你達成上述目標的方法。如何達成?首先,大方地獎勵團隊裡的明星,不只在荷包上,也要讓他們的心理感到滿足,這樣才能留住最好的人才,讓他 們發揮最大才能;積極開發中間的70%的潛能,給予訓練跟個別指導;去除墊底的10%,好讓新血可以加入。…….」

Posted by hc at 2006-10-03 08:40:36


克拉格医生的一位女病人去世,发病时她曾电话询问克拉格,而医生却只当她是怀疑病症再次发作,结果延误医疗时机。病人的丈夫将医生告上法庭。在这危急时 刻,医生太太找来人在纽约的哥哥杰克帮忙。杰克和克拉格素有摩擦,但身为医药检查官的他又不能袖手旁观,但他万没料到,尸检的结果竟是个潘多拉盒子…… 《危机》同时涉及到一个在当今美国颇有争议的话题,即是不是该为富人提供更加昂贵也更加周到的医疗服务。(周敏)
Crisis By Robin Cook Putnan Adult 2006年8月版

Crisis by Robin Cook. Hardcover: 480 pages; Publisher: Putnam Adult (August 8, 2006); Language: English; ISBN: 0399153578
書名Crisis 可能是雙關語,因為在醫療上CRISIS指”(病情)轉機”。
A crisis (plural: crises) is a turning point or decisive moment in events. Typically, it is the moment from which an illness may go on to death or recovery. More loosely, it is a term meaning 'a testing time' or 'emergency event'. It is a concept in economics (discussed elsewhere) and in international relations, discussed below....
Posted by hc at 2006-10-03 08:54:44
Posted by hc at 2006-10-04 06:58:49
{諾貝爾之路:十三位經濟獎得主的故事}( Lives of the Laureates : Thirteen Nobel Economists), 譯者, 黃進發. 台北:天下文化,1998

這本書原文無索引,不過中文都用姓而無名,很容易讓讀者搞不清,所以起碼應有人名對照表(譬如說,H. A. Simon出現幾次,都是賽蒙,天下有多少位賽蒙……【他在本書缺席因為他的故事要一本書或在他處發表】)。本書無注,最好有稍加注(詳下文提的專業辭典等)。


本書在少數地方有漏譯情形。譬如說,中文版第166頁最末段的 “It turned out that we could have our cake and eat it too.(p.103 。案:譯成「我們竟然能找到兩全其美的辦法如何?」)。或許有人以為,少了這一句,看起來似乎無大礙,不過讓作者之文采稍為失色而已。我想除非不得已,盡 量要求「全譯」(甚至要字都不略過)才算最好。

That isolation allowed von Thünen to spend prodigious energies on the
attempt to discover the formula for a God-given fair wage, a
will-of-the-wisp that he asked to have engraved on his tombstone√ap.
(George J Stigler, pp.86-7)
「這種孤立讓馮屠能耗去甚多寶貴精力去發現所謂由上帝賜予之公平工資的計算公式√ap.。(頁140) 」

評:prodigious似宜翻譯為「驚人/巨大的」。上文少翻譯了這一字/詞will-o'-the-wisp,這樣會讀者無法知道作者對這「上帝之 賜」之公式的評價:「不過類似野狐禪罷了!」至於這所謂「自然工資」的導法和意義,可參考{新帕爾格雷夫經濟學大詞典}之Thünen 條項(北京:經濟科學,1996)。
【我們可以談一下學術的傳承。這一例中,顯示約150多年前西方就有這種微分應用,所以類似W. Edwards Deming他們找”進料和最終成品的最低總測試成本之計畫”(Plan for Minimum Total Cost for Test of Incoming Materials and Final Product){轉微為安 (Out of the Crisis)} 中文施姓編者竟然將它改成:「便宜好用的測試」…………】

Posted by HC at 2006-10-04 15:21:43
另外一種”譯評”方式,可能更有收獲,即深入某位獎主的說詞,來看「編-譯」之功過。譬如說找George J. Stigler( Awarded Nobel Prize in 1982, Lecture presented April 17, 1985.),這位先生的行文,比較深點。

我之所以說『「編-譯」之功過』,因為編者是可能涉嫌該出版品之(意圖良善的)竄改:像類似本書這些名學人的”作品”,天下文化出版社的編輯,或本著普及化的想法,喜歡「自以為是」,”加減” 內文的標題,這可能最容易鬧笑話。

There is good reason for believing that economics is a social science in quite another sense from the indisputable one that it concerns itself with mankind in social relationships. It appears also to be a social science in the literal sense that it is a science in which it is difficult to do creative work if one is not in a congenial intellectual environment.

我認為編輯不可的作法是,這段在原書是 A Digression on Research and Originality 節的第一段。不過,在中文版將它改為「孕育經濟理論的條例」和…..,而將上段歸為上節的末段。(中文「芝加哥學派」,原文:Back to Chicago—案:這篇是半自傳,所以不必那麼正式,作者是經濟史家,可能不敢自稱是「芝加哥學派」,因為他的老師們當年也是道地的「芝加哥『學派』」 啊!),又,他不敢再讀自己的博士論文,因為老師之(文章/推理)風格太強:”Knightian excesses”,可能非「其中奈特的觀點過多」)。

Allen Wallis was so competent and systematic that we soon predicted, to his annoyance, that he would become a university president.
漏譯to his annoyance 。 案: W. A. Wallis (1913-1998) 後來的確做過Rochester 大學校長,不過同學間的預言多戲言【「同學少年都不賤」……】….

對於「科學」術語(譬如說統計/決策論)或委婉說法等表達方式,似宜採取直譯,譬如說文末:But I don’t attach high probability to these possibilities. 意思不只是「我卻不認為這些可能性有多高」(第150頁)。類似的,同頁中,I not only believe this to be true but also I hope this is true:,意思不只是「我個人對此深信不疑。」
If you understand my scientific work better for having heard me, I shall be both pleased and envious.


幾個禮拜前,我懷疑Deming 所使用的”判斷抽樣” 等詞是從Shewhart 來的。不過近日翻他1950年的著作Some Theory of Sampling.(p.9)之注,他說
"probability-sample and judgment samples"是他所鑄,發表在1947年的一篇
"Some criteria for judging the quality of survey," J. of Marketing, vol. xii, 1947...
而這篇又是同年一篇收入賓州大學的 Measurement of Consumer Interest 書中的同名論文之修正版。
Posted by hc at 2006-10-05 09:45:09
本期{商業周刊}(第 985 期)的「十大名家推薦人生必讀好書」:"台大工管系系主任”選: {轉危為安}……;華碩董事長選{精實革命}…….
Posted by hc at 2006-10-05 19:36:41

The Economist報導泰國新總理:
Thailand's new man
The generals install a “civilian” prime minister

讓人想起Deming作品中的”install quality control”說法之謬:
to place someone in an official position:
She has installed a couple of young academics as her advisers.
「我們設置了品質管制」We installed quality control.之說法是錯誤的!
所以WED說 INSTALL A NEW DEAN 是新院長出任。不過更常用「装置」義。

妙的是,在Out of the Crisis 索引中竟有 quality control not installed,不過指的內容卻是對的:「徒有QC等部門/手段無法建立品質」。
Posted by HC at 2006-10-05 23:34:25
經濟學大師的人生哲學(Eminent Economists: Their Life Philosophy EDT by M. Szenberg(1991) 北京:商務印書館,2001,
其中Walt W. Rostow (1916-2003)”關於政治經濟學的沉思:過去現在和未來”( Reflections on Political Economy: Past, Present, and Future)引John Mill{政治經濟學原理} (1848年等) 之序文之名句,翻譯(頁325)顯然錯誤,應該參考中文翻譯(北京:商務印書館,1997,穆勒序研 pp.7-8之正確翻譯)。
Posted by HC at 2006-10-07 23:17:28
其一:James M. Buchanan 有一好習慣,先用一段話將這篇演講的大綱說出來,這是重要的鳥瞰(他在另外一篇收錄在Eminent Economists 一書【有北京商務印書館翻譯本】中的文章作法相同),可惜中文翻譯全刪了。
其二:這本書Paul A. Samuelson (PAS)寫得相當用「心」、用力,不過,他引用太多諸如T. 羅斯福等的典故和(類似)雙關語,該頁可能得作近十處注解,才容易讓讀者進入狀況。所以,在該部分的翻譯,「缺點密度」可能為本書中最高者(有些諸如名漫 畫主角等資訊,現在比較容易查,我只是後見之明)。
其三:Milton Friedman 演講中說的英國(或世界)最傑出的女性經濟學家Joan Robinson(1903-83)之所以未能獲得(紀念)諾貝爾(之)經濟學獎的原因,「在座」都知道原因、道理。這,其實是經濟圈中的(諾貝爾獎)恩 怨,即,她是不承認瑞典學界在凱恩斯學術之”真貢獻”的,所以得罪「諸委員」。這可參考Mark Blaug{凱恩斯以後的100位著名的經濟學家}(北京:商務印書館,2003,第310頁)。

其一:James M. Buchanan 有一好習慣,先用一段話將這篇演講的大綱說出來,這是重要的鳥瞰(他在另外一篇收錄在一書【有北京商務印書館翻譯本】中的文章作法相同),可惜中文翻譯全刪了。
其二:這本書Paul A. Samuelson (PAS)寫得相當用「心」、用力,不過,他引用太多諸如T. 羅斯福等的典故和(類似)雙關語,該頁可能得作近十處注解,才容易讓讀者進入狀況。所以,在該部分的翻譯,「缺點密度」可能為本書中最高者(有些諸如名漫 畫主角等資訊,現在比較容易查,我只是後見之明)。
其三:Milton Friedman 演講中說的英國(或世界)最傑出的女性經濟學家Joan Robinson(1903-83)之所以未能獲得(紀念)諾貝爾(之)經濟學獎的原因,「在座」都知道原因、道理。這,其實是經濟圈中的(諾貝爾獎)恩 怨,即,她是不承認瑞典學界在凱恩斯學術之”真貢獻”的,所以得罪「諸委員」。這可參考Mark Blaug這本翻譯,還有可能出版增訂新版,所以或許值得再回憶一下前幾天讀它的感想。
其一:James M. Buchanan 有一好習慣,先用一段話將這篇演講的大綱說出來,這是重要的鳥瞰(他在另外一篇收錄在Eminent Economists 一書【有北京商務印書館翻譯本】中的文章作法相同),可惜中文翻譯全刪了。
其二:這本書寫得相當用「心」、用力,不過,他引用太多諸如T. 羅斯福等的典故和(類似)雙關語,該頁可能得作近十處注解,才容易讓讀者進入狀況。所以,在該部分的翻譯,「缺點密度」可能為本書中最高者(有些諸如名漫畫主角等資訊,現在比較容易查,我只是後見之明)。
其三:Milton Friedman 演講中說的英國(或世界)最傑出的女性經濟學家Joan Robinson(1903-83)之所以未能獲得(紀念)諾貝爾(之)經濟學獎的原因,「在座」都知道原因、道理。這,其實是經濟圈中的(諾貝爾獎)恩 怨,即,她是不承認瑞典學界在凱恩斯學術之”真貢獻”的,所以得罪「諸委員」。這可參考Mark Blaug{凱恩斯以後的100位著名的經濟學家}


簡單談一下:{經濟學大師的人生哲學 } (Eminent Economists: Their Life Philosophies, Edited by Michael Szenberg) (北京:商務印書館,2001,第7-8頁)。

這本書的翻譯採取直譯,如Paul A. Samuelson (PAS)採用統計用語說明,這,其實無法”意譯”【天下文化出版社編輯如果要在這方面下功夫,似乎可能得反效果】,因為該句中的每一術語都有專門(確切)定義。


不過,在W. W. Rostow 引用十九世紀之約翰 穆勒名著一小斷,卻翻譯錯誤了。該書在該出版社已有全譯本,可編-譯者都不參考一下:{政治經濟學原理:及其在社會哲學上的若干應用}(1848……)(北京:商務印書館,1997,第7-8頁)。

引文的翻譯,因為缺少前後文,常常比較難懂,所以可能得花些功夫參考他人作品(if any),這樣或許比較妥當。
Posted by HC at 2006-10-10 21:47:55
諾貝爾經濟學獎主George J. Stigler 有短文介紹「壟斷、獨市」(Monopoly),它的結論提到,美國經濟體系中所謂的「市場之失敗」(未能達完全競爭),實在遠比由實際政治體系中經濟政策中之不完美之「政策之失敗」來得小得多。*

Deming 做全美公路貨運業的顧問數十年。他的著作中舉了許多精彩的「政經說帖」、「品質成本—職員不合格造成因小失大」、「種種人-車之改善案」之研究。

*A famous theorem in economics states that a competitive enterprise economy will produce the largest possible income from a given stock of resources. No real economy meets the exact conditions of the theorem, and all real economies will fall short of the ideal economy—a difference called "market failure." In my view, however, the degree of "market failure" for the American economy is much smaller than the "political failure" arising from the imperfections of economic policies found in real political systems. The merits of laissez-faire rest less upon its famous theoretical foundations than upon its advantages over the actual performance of rival forms of economic organization.
Posted by HC at 2006-11-07 23:24:50

2007年10月5日 星期五

Healing Organization 康復式組織

參考 2007816 星期四:Deming Medal (2007) – Peter R. Scholtes and his books

2007/10/5 The Economist 關於Hillary的專文,其中說到2008年美國新總統要具備的一種特質是要能與同盟者合作,醫治因為這7-8年美國採取強硬/暴力方式在國際間所造成的關係和形象之創傷。 子標題為Hillary the healer?

The third challenge for the next American president requires a different set of qualities: he or she will have to be a healer, both at home and abroad. America's standing in the world has been hugely damaged by the war, by Guantánamo and Abu Ghraib, and by the high-handed way in which it has treated international bodies and agreements. The country needs a leader who will rebuild alliances.

這種觀念在組織層面在Peter Scholtes The Leader Handbook 提出 Healing Organization之概念,我將它翻譯為「康復式組織」。

我想這是Deming 哲學更特別的應用例:90年代以來,美國許多大公司多裁員等等傷心事,所以這「康復式組織」將關懷組織之健康和員工之福祉等推向另一「組織心理學」之層次。

2007年10月2日 星期二


想起Deming曾說他是愛國的:作一辭條 patriotism

愛國情操 (主義) --愛國 以其為榮 (when you love your country and are proud of it)

這要談顧炎武:亡國 (易性改號)亡天下(仁義充塞而至於相率食人 人將相食)
什麼"由於千百年各自的組祖國相隔離而形成的深厚感情" (列寧) 都是修辭而已

2007年10月1日 星期一

the names to be legendary or historical footnotes.


(這則新聞可以當Deming 所說的"合作"服務之範例)

以下為美國名牌車的第二輪迴 希望它們能再生

Behind the Wheel | 2008 Ford Taurus and Taurus X

The Rerunning of the Bulls

With a new grille, side vents and other cosmetic touch-ups, the 2007 Five Hundred has morphed into the 2008 Taurus.

Published: September 30, 2007

ATTENTION, please: the winner of the 2008 Do-Over and Do-Again Award (known as “The Do-Do”) is the 2008 Ford Taurus and Taurus X.

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The Taurus X crossover wagon used to be the Freestyle.

The Do-Do recognizes the automaker who tries the hardest to compensate for not having taken full advantage of the opportunity when originally introducing a vehicle. And the Taurus and Taurus X were the odds-on favorites to win the Do-Do this year — most likely because I created the award with these very same vehicles in mind.

To understand the significance of this prestigious (aren’t they all?) award, it may be helpful to review a few basics.

Consumers who thought the Taurus was dead are right. It was replaced by the Ford Five Hundred, which was introduced as a 2005 model (though in fact Ford continued to turn out Tauri until October 2006 for the low-margin fleet market). At the same time, Ford introduced a crossover-wagon variant called the Freestyle.

But when the Five Hundred didn’t catch on, Ford decided to try an increasingly popular tactic: resurrecting the name of a well-known vehicle. That’s how the 2008 Five Hundred became the Taurus and the Freestyle became the Taurus X. It is unclear whether the Pinto or Mustang II names were ever considered.

A big reason Ford execs give for the name change is that “Taurus” is more familiar, but somebody apparently forgot to tell the salespeople. A late-August survey of about 300 Ford salespeople in 27 markets found 81 percent were not consistently calling the new vehicles “Taurus,” according to CNW Marketing Research of Bandon, Ore. About 20 percent admitted they always called the Taurus the Five Hundred.

In fairness, this is not just a name game. A lot of improvements have been made to the 2008 Taurus. Still, Ford redefines elasticity in the way it stretches the point with ads that declare the car to be the “all-new Taurus.”

There are two Taurus sedan models, the SEL and the Limited. Each is available with either front-wheel drive or all-wheel drive. The front-wheel drive SEL is $23,995, which includes plenty of standard equipment; one could stop there and not feel deprived. The Limited is fancier, with features including leather upholstery and a price starting at $27,595.

For the Taurus X, there are three trim levels: SEL, Eddie Bauer and Limited. The SEL is $27,365; the Eddie Bauer is $29,720 and the Limited is $30,700.

Those who face snow-covered hills can get all-wheel-drive versions of either the Taurus or the X for another $1,850. I tested a Taurus Limited with all-wheel drive. It had a base price of $29,445 and options including an easy-to-use navigation system ($1,995) and electronic stability control ($495), bringing the total to $32,605.

Later I tried a Taurus X Limited with all-wheel drive and a base price of $32,550. But Ford loaded that car up with options, including a navigation system, DVD player ($995) and the Limited Ultimate Package with a power liftgate and heated second-row seats ($825). The total came to $38,160.

The exteriors have been reworked, with the most noticeable change being the three-bar chrome grille that is becoming the shiny new face of Ford. When the Five Hundred and Freestyle were introduced, some top Ford execs worried that they looked too conservative, and this grille was the antidote.

There are no meaningful changes in the exterior or interior dimensions, so the sedan still has a huge expanse of legroom in the second row. In the Taurus X wagon, the second row legroom comes close to matching the sedan, but only when the second-row seat — which moves forward and backward 3.5 inches — is all the way back. Unfortunately when the second row is in its rearmost position, the third row is best suited to a small child.

Access to the third row is made easier because the second-row seats can be easily flipped forward. There is even a power seat-flipping option. But getting to the third row still takes the kind of hip-swivel-and-twist maneuver that is best left to youngsters or supple adults.

The sedan’s trunk is an enormous 21 cubic feet, which makes the luggage compartments of the main competitors from Honda, Toyota and Chrysler look more like ill-placed gloveboxes. And there is an ample amount of cargo space behind the third row in the Taurus X.

The interiors also look a little nicer, have more soundproofing and are comfortable places to be. Still, some of the heating and ventilation controls are too small, requiring a search-to-deploy approach.

The most important change is the switch to a more powerful (263 horsepower) 3.5-liter V-6 engine, said Michael Liubakka, the vehicle engineering manager for both the sedan and wagon.

Originally the Five Hundred and Freestyle came with a 3-liter V-6 rated at a mere 203 horsepower, which didn’t seem like much for such large vehicles. Ford executives scoffed at the scoffers, insisting there would be plenty of power. They suggested that the V-6 would work particularly well with Ford’s new continuously variable transmission because its use of belts — instead of a limited number of gears — would provide near-instant acceleration.

So much for Ford’s claims: the 3-liter V-6 is gone, along with the much-promoted variable transmission, which has been replaced with a new six-speed automatic developed jointly with General Motors.

The 60 extra horses are offset a little because the Taurus and Taurus X weigh some 75 to 100 pounds more. That pushes the all-wheel-drive Taurus X to about 4,200 pounds and the all-wheel-drive Taurus to 3,930 pounds.

Nevertheless, the new engine gives these vehicles the acceleration they needed from the beginning, albeit at the cost of scary thrills when merging onto a busy Interstate. Car and Driver magazine clocked the front-drive Taurus sedan at 6.8 seconds from zero to 60 m.p.h., about a second faster — a significant improvement — than the old Five Hundred.

In addition, the 3.5-liter V-6 plays well with the six-speed automatic, which goes about its gear-to-gear business in an eager and generally refined way.

The all-wheel-drive sedan is rated at 17 m.p.g. in the city and 24 m.p.g. on the highway, according to the Environmental Protection Agency’s new ratings, which try to be more realistic. The front-drive sedan is rated at 18 m.p.g. city and 28 m.p.g. highway. The Taurus X is rated at 16 m.p.g. city and 24 m.p.g. highway with front-wheel drive and 15/22 with all-wheel drive.

From the beginning, the Five Hundred and Freestyle got good marks for their handling, although there were a few complaints that the ride was a bit stiff. The suspensions of the Taurus and Taurus X have been reworked with the goal of improving ride quality without a loss of handling prowess, Mr. Liubakka said.

Indeed, the Taurus and Taurus X ride comfortably on rough surfaces and still handle surprisingly well for their size. They are not agile enough to delude the driver into imagining these are smaller vehicles. But it is reassuring to know that despite their bulk they can respond quickly under demanding circumstances like a surprisingly sharp turn.

The sedan’s capability was demonstrated while traveling briskly near Franconia, N.H., when a turn that appeared to be gentle suddenly hooked around and became much tighter. At the same time, instead of the road having nice, nurturing banking to help guide the car through the turn, the road was off camber. That means it was angled down and away as if the goal was to flummox suspensions and fling vehicles into the woods. The all-wheel-drive Taurus hunkered down and completed the turn without any trauma.

Standard safety equipment includes antilock brakes as well as air curtains, which cover the side windows and offer head protection in a side-impact crash. The front seats also have seat-mounted air bags for chest protection. Studies have shown such equipment can significantly improve the chances of surviving a side-impact crash.

Another established lifesaver, electronic stability control, is standard only on the Taurus X. On the other models — including the fancy Limited version of the sedan — it is a $495 option. That’s an odd decision for a company that boasts about its emphasis on safety. Even the least expensive Honda Accord sedan comes with electronic stability control as standard fare, although it is an option on all Toyota Camrys except the Hybrid, on which it is standard.

The Taurus (and its close cousin, the Mercury Sable) is the top-rated family sedan in the severe front, side and rear crash tests conducted by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety; and when equipped with electronic stability control it gets the ultimate accolade of Top Safety Pick.

The Taurus X also gets the Top Safety Pick designation — one of only three domestic midsize S.U.V.’s to get that label. The other two are also from Ford: the Edge and the Lincoln MKX.

In the end, the 2008 Taurus and Taurus X are attractive vehicles, but not benchmarks. If only Ford had introduced the Five Hundred and Freestyle with these upgrades, the cars could have been blockbusters, the names destined to be legendary instead of historical footnotes.

But Ford fumbled badly and gave competitors like G.M. time to field ultra-competitive vehicles like the Buick Enclave, while Chrysler came out with its 300 and Dodge Charger sedans and Toyota and Honda created larger Camrys and Accords. It was generous of Ford to provide this grace period, but perhaps charity should have begun at home.