「華人戴明學院」是戴明哲學的學習共同體 ,致力於淵博型智識系統的研究、推廣和運用。 The purpose of this blog is to advance the ideas and ideals of W. Edwards Deming.

2022年2月28日 星期一

Bias isn’t the only problem with credit scores—and no, AI can’t help

 The first large-scale experiment that looks at loan applications of millions of real people shows credit scores for minority and low-income groups aren’t just biased, they're inaccurate– and that's far harder to fix.

2022年2月26日 星期六

Recent data from Russia have a dubious lack of variation. How a Virus Exposed the Myth of Rugged Individualism



"This pandemic exposed the fragility and faults in each layer of our lives—from our innermost circle of family and friends to the nation state at the periphery—and the differential risk experienced by any individual’s core community."


***

 Genuine death counts vary from day to day, as people do not fall ill uniformly. Recent data from Russia have a dubious lack of variation

2022年2月23日 星期三

戴明的新經學與好友 2019-01-18 漢清講堂。以《新經濟學》為例:Deming記錄他與Shewhart的友情 (第8章),很感人。女工下班的高跟鞋 ( high heels))






268 戴明的新經學與好友 2019-01-18 漢清講堂

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sz0V2OcYKXY&t=2s

Hanching Chung
明天計畫自錄:"W. Edwards Deming 博士的三位好友:W. A. Shewhart博士 (為主)、M. H. Hansen博士、A. Politz先生:友情、統計學,可運作定義 Operational Definitions"
《轉危為安》(1986)《新經濟學》(1992)記錄很多友情的結晶 :可參考原書的索引和進一步的研究。
以《新經濟學》為例:Deming記錄他與Shewhart的友情 (第8章),很感人。
另外一位他佩服的統計學家兼管理者Morris H. Hansen (1910~90),pp.167~71。
此外,第一章章前引言的Alfred Politz (1902~82),也很值得談 (p.44)。
111頁,聖保羅了解系統:1990.7.11與Nida Backaitis博士訪英國西敏寺....
AMAZON 網站有1931年的經典作:Economic Control of Quality Of Manufactured Product Paperback – April 25, 2015
by Walter A. Shewhart (Author)
---1939
Statistical Method from the Viewpoint of Quality Control (Dover Books on Mathematics)Jul 3, 2012
by Walter A. Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming

記起該作Dr. W. Edwards Deming和 Dr. Walter A. Shewhart 兩人之間的友誼:

這篇ASQ的品管先賢文章有點扯:將 Walter A. Shewhart和 Philip Crosby 兩人硬湊起來。他們 在此BLOG和Wikipedia 都有資料。


Deming

On receiving his PhD, Deming was offered a job at the Western Electric Company, where he had worked summers, but chose instead to enter government service. The first of what would prove to be three careers, which lasted until 1939, was in the Fixed Nitrogen Research Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. There, the study of the physical properties of materials led him into statistics via the theories of measurement errors and least squares that he encountered in this work. This was, he asserted, a "natural progression of interests." His path was also influenced by surveying and geodesy, where least squares methods were also used, and the kinetic theory of gases, from which he learned a lot of probability.

Mind Your Elders

QUALITY HAS A RICH HISTORY AND BODY OF KNOWLEDGE.

August 5, 2015
While there is no possible way to fit the entire history of quality in one column (or 20), the following is an attempt to bring some of the ideas and people of yesteryear to our minds today. In the case of quality, many great minds have butted heads and collaborated to develop methods and tools and—most importantly—utilized them for real world results.

Philip Crosby's Four Absolutes of Quality Management

Quality is defined as conformance to requirements, not as “goodness” or “elegance.”
The system for causing quality is prevention, not appraisal.
The performance standard must be zero defects, not “that’s close enough.”
The measurement of quality is the price of nonconformance, not indices.
“Assignable causes of variation may be found and eliminated.” — Walter A. Shewhart
We begin with Walter Shewhart. Often referred to as the father of statistical quality control, Shewhart is as important to the quality community as Joseph Juran and W. Edwards Deming, although not always top of mind when thinking of “quality gurus.” Perhaps it is because Shewhart was first in line.
Through his work at Western Electric (1918-1925) and Bell Telephone Laboratories (1925-1956), and lectures at several universities worldwide, Shewhart developed ideas that blended statistics, engineering, and economics. While at the Western Electric Hawthorne Plant (Cicero, IL), Shewhart worked with W. Edwards Deming and Joseph Juran, who championed and expanded Shewhart’s ideas.
In May 1924, Shewhart introduced the control chart. Shewhart believed statistical theory could benefit industry and demonstrated how this occurs. The control chart is still an essential tool today.
Shewhart is also known for introducing plan-do-check-act. Deming championed this model (also plan-do-study-act), which is also referred to as the Deming cycle, but it was Shewhart who was there in the beginning, developing this important quality control method.
“Why spend all this time finding, fixing and fighting when you could have prevented the problem in the first place?”— Philip Crosby
While Shewhart was finishing his career at Bell, a young quality professional was developing terminology management could understand, ushering in the quality revolution in the United States and Europe.
Philip Crosby worked on the assembly line. He saw the waste being produced and the defects needing rework. He knew organizations needed to reduce both and he understood it was upper management that needed to lead the change in philosophy. As a best-selling author, Crosby introduced business leaders to the concepts of cost of poor quality and zero defects.
Zero defects is a theory that describes a systematic means of eliminating waste and reducing defects. However, the use of the words zero and defects caused some controversy. Of course, controversy is rarely bad for an idea, and zero defects became a popular concept in quality management and an important component of Six Sigma methodology.
Cost of poor quality forced management to change their thinking from shipping product to adopting systems and processes that would eliminate waste, reduce defects, and—this is the main selling point—increase profit. As you can imagine, this resonated with the manufacturing sector but Crosby saw the same idea being applicable in service, government, and education. “Doing it right the first time” is a phrase leaders across the country use whether it’s in a factory, restaurant, or Little League. 
Through the work and accomplishments of Walter Shewhart, Philip Crosby, and their disciples, quality has a rich history and body of knowledge. As you improve a process, eliminate waste, and reduce defects, think about how these concepts came into practice and what else you can learn with a little bit of research.
----
這兩年,我在此領域沒什新創/新發現。

Hanching Chung
本周三(14日)10點起,我處有"漢清講堂"節目:
"Deming and Drucker at NYU /GBS :A Friendship. "紀念戴明...
http://hclectures.blogspot.tw/…/1014-dr-w-edwards-deming-an…


Deming and Drucker at NYU /GBS :A Friendship 紀念戴明博士 鍾漢清 戴久永



戴明博士訪台講學盛會 1970年11月23~27日:…
YOUTUBE.COM

現在的資訊網很奇妙。我10月14日做一場"戴明與杜拉克在紐約大學的商學研究院:一段友情。我當時把商學研究院GBA錯寫成GBS。
今天,我想研究他1945年在紐約買的小套房,為教學和辦公方便才買的。我用"w edwards deming new york apartment"搜索,第1頁就有兩條讓我想深入去看看,首先是一本Frank Voehl先生主編的"Deming The Way We Knew " (謝謝Frank十幾年前從美國寄一本到台灣送我),Frank和Gerald Glasser 都分別回憶他們有幸到那套房聊天的樂趣和榮幸;Glasser的那篇,更是1976年10月14為慶祝Dr. Deming 75歲生日的頌文,談他怎麼到紐約大學修課,後來當戴明博士的統計顧問的助手所見所學......Deming博士將它裱起來,掛在套房的牆上多年.....
另一則是曾是Dr DEMING博士學生的 J. N. Orsini ,為【從17世紀到20世紀的統計學名人】寫篇W. Edwards Deming(在第7分的"科學與技術上的應用", pp.355-60:
Leading Personalities in Statistical Sciences: From the Seventeenth Century ...
edited by Norman L. Johnson, Samuel Kotz (1997)
我還讀到戴明檔案中的書信部份的一些通信人:R. T. Birge, Harold Dodge, Churchill Eisenhart, Gregory Lidstone, Jerzy Neyman, John Tukey, W. Allen Wallis, Peter Drucker, Joseph Juran, Ichiro Ishikawa, and Kenichi Koyanagi. 等等。這些對我寫傳記有幫助。


原書名為Adventures of A Bystander
Bystander翻譯為"旁觀者"或"局外人"。Adventures 在廖譯中省略,日譯本翻譯成"時代"。
其實,原作者Drucker或許想襲用【Alice 漫遊奇境】,因為此書談到不少真實奇人的故事。
將 Henry Luce and TimeLifeFortune翻譯成"美國報閥魯斯",似乎有點過份啦!80年代我從"台北美國新聞處"借得此書,讀後印象最深刻的,無疑是此章說,"路思義(這是東海大學對該校的教堂捐贈者Henry Luce 的稱呼),深諳中國宮廷的鬥爭文化和方式,也將它應用於其創造的媒體帝國之管理之中。

"斯隆的專業風采"一章的"專業風采"也是漢譯本添加的,有違傳主的嚴以律已之精神。關於他,請參考討我討論 Peter Drucker和W. Edwards Deming的領導力的英雄之章節。





談"《東海大學學報》第一期 1959.6"
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