新經濟學與台灣戴明圈: The New Economics and A Taiwanese Deming Circle

「華人戴明學院」是戴明哲學的學習共同體 ,致力於淵博型智識系統的研究、推廣和運用。 The purpose of this blog is to advance the ideas and ideals of W. Edwards Deming.

2016年10月23日 星期日

The Fatal Mistake That Doomed Samsung’s Galaxy Note



The Fatal Mistake That Doomed Samsung’s Galaxy Note

On the verge of challenging Apple’s mobile phone dominance, the South Korean company made a rushed decision, based on incomplete evidence, that later forced it to kill the model.

Attendees gather around display tables to view the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 smartphone during a launch event in August in New York City.
Attendees gather around display tables to view the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 smartphone during a launch event in August in New York City. PHOTO: DREW ANGERER/GETTY IMAGES
The X-ray and CT scans showed a pronounced bulge.
After reports of Galaxy Note 7 smartphones catching fire spread in early September, Samsung Electronics Co. executives debated how to respond. Some were skeptical the incidents amounted to much, according to people familiar with the meetings, but others thought the company needed to act decisively.
A laboratory report said scans of some faulty devices showed a protrusion in Note 7 batteries supplied by Samsung SDI Co., a company affiliate, while phones with batteries from another supplier didn’t.
It wasn’t a definitive answer, and there was no explanation for the bulges. But with consumers complaining and telecom operators demanding answers, newly appointed mobile chief D.J. Koh felt the company knew enough to recall 2.5 million phones. His suggestion was backed by Samsung’s third-generation heir apparent, Lee Jae-yong, who has advocated for more openness at one of the world’s most opaque conglomerates.
That decision in early September—to push a sweeping recall based on what turned out to be incomplete evidence—is now coming back to haunt the company.
Two weeks after Samsung began handing out millions of new phones, with batteries from the other supplier, the company was forced to all but acknowledge that its initial diagnosis was incorrect, following a spate of new incidents, some involving supposedly safe replacement devices. With regulators raising fresh questions, Messrs. Lee and Koh decided to take the drastic step of killing the phone outright.
 Samsung discontinued production of Galaxy Note 7 smartphones after incidents of the phones catching fire.
Samsung discontinued production of Galaxy Note 7 smartphones after incidents of the phones catching fire. PHOTO: ASSOCIATED PRESS
The Galaxy Note series helped make Samsung a smartphone leader, and the Note 7, its most advanced phone ever, had all the makings of a hit. For a moment, it looked like the Galaxy Note could win over users of Apple Inc.’s iPhone and cement Samsung as one of the world’s most dominant technology companies.
Instead, as a result of the flammable phones and the botched recall Samsung’s leaders are now struggling to salvage the company’s credibility. At risk is the expected February launch of its next flagship smartphone, likely to be called the Galaxy S8.
The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission, which oversees product recalls in Samsung’s biggest smartphone market, is expected to investigate whether Samsung notified the agency soon enough of dangers posed by the device. Samsung’s decision to launch its own recall, bypassing the CPSC’s formal process for a time, may have prevented regulators from figuring out more about the root cause, some U.S. lawmakers suspect.
Samsung still doesn’t have a conclusive answer for what’s causing some Note 7s to catch fire.
A Samsung spokeswoman said the company worked quickly with regulators and took immediate action when problems arose with the phone. “We recognized that we did not correctly identify the issue the first time and remain committed to finding the root cause,” she said. “Our top priority remains the safety of our customers and retrieving 100% of the Galaxy Note 7 devices in the market.”
Outside experts have pointed to a range of possible culprits, from the software that manages how the battery interacts with other smartphone components to the design of the entire circuit.
Engineers are also looking into the possibility that the battery case may have been too small to house a battery of that capacity, according to one Samsung mobile executive.
Big product recalls are never easy. Consumers, however, are often willing to forgive mistakes if they believe the company is looking out for them and moving swiftly to address problems.
“What Samsung should have done, very early on, was to share even its preliminary findings or thoughts” with U.S. regulators rather than pushing its own recall, said Stuart Statler, a former CPSC commissioner and independent product safety consultant in Mooresville, N.C.
Samsung executives have delayed the development of the Galaxy S8 device by two weeks as engineers work to get to the bottom of the Note 7’s overheating problem, according to a member of the Galaxy S8 development team.
Meanwhile, investors have shaved off roughly $20 billion in Samsung’s market value. The company has said the recall would cost it $5 billion or more, including lost sales.
Introduced in 2011, the Galaxy Note series has served as a point of pride for the South Korean company, which was long derided for following—and sued for allegedly copying—the iPhone.
The bigger-screen phone was in tune with consumer tastes. When iPhones were shrinking in size, the Galaxy Note anticipated the shift to bigger handsets, which earned it the nickname “phablet,” a mashup of phone and tablet.
By the time Samsung released its third iteration in September 2013, the Galaxy Note was a certified hit, selling 10 million units in two months. The next year, Apple released its first Galaxy Note-sized iPhone.
As word reached Samsung executives that only incremental changes were likely for Apple’s iPhone 7 this year, Mr. Koh and other top executives grew confident about their prospects for a head-to-head fall release of the next version. The company decided to skip the number 6 and jump straight to 7, a name change that would invite direct comparisons with Apple’s model.
Samsung’s engineers packed new features, including an iris scanner, water resistance, an improved stylus and about 16% more battery life than its previous Note device. Presales for the Note 7 started strong after Mr. Koh introduced the device at a lavish event at a theater in Midtown Manhattan on Aug. 2. Analysts boosted their projections for Samsung’s earnings, while investors pushed the stock to record highs.
As user reports of overheating began to trickle in days later, company executives were at first unruffled. Some suspected that many of the alleged incidents had been faked, and argued that even a small number of genuine cases shouldn’t overshadow the fact that millions of smartphones were working fine, according to people familiar with their thinking.
Gathering at Mr. Koh’s office at R5, the 27-story office tower overlooking Samsung’s sprawling Digital City campus south of Seoul, he and other mobile executives, including his predecessor, J.K. Shin, and longtime Samsung top lieutenant G.S. Choi, examined the X-ray and CT scan reports of the phone, which appeared to show heat damage to the internal structure of the battery, according to people familiar with the discussions.
Messrs. Lee and Koh believed they had all the evidence they needed to conclude the problem lay with Samsung SDI’s batteries, these people said. They argued it was more important for Samsung to do “the right thing” and act, in the words of one of the people familiar with the matter, rather than wait for more information. Doing so would have left customers in the dark longer and potentially allowed the crisis to get worse.
On Sept. 2, Mr. Koh entered a news conference room in downtown Seoul to address reporters. Without providing names, he said the company had identified a problem with one of its suppliers and it would shift production to another supplier it believed hadn’t caused the problems.
People familiar with the matter say that the supplier Samsung planned to rely on was Amperex Technology Ltd., a unit of Japanese electronic parts maker TDK Corp.
In Washington, Mr. Koh’s announcement came as a surprise to the Consumer Product Safety Commission. Typically, companies work jointly with the CPSC to study a problem and plan a recall together.
Samsung didn’t notify the CPSC of the problems until later that day, according to people familiar with the matter—about two weeks after the first reported Note 7 incident.
CPSC regulations require companies to report potential product hazards within 24 hours, though the commission allows companies that are “truly uncertain” about an issue to spend a “reasonable time” investigating the situation.
Samsung also took the little-noticed decision to pursue what’s known as fast-track resolution with the CPSC. The program allows a company to shorten the agency’s sometimes-lengthy investigation of a product problem, while avoiding a formal finding by the CPSC of a defect—a maneuver that can insulate manufacturers from product-liability litigation.
The CPSC warns that some companies might not want a fast-track resolution in situations where “complex technical issues…require more time to resolve.”
At first, Samsung’s recall solution seemed to work. Consumers were turning in their phones and asking for new Note 7 phones in about 90% of the cases, Samsung said. The company’s executives basked in praise, particularly from the South Korean press that Samsung executives read obsessively, who credited Samsung with acting swiftly.
The CPSC, though, appeared unhappy with some of the company’s maneuvers. A week after Mr. Koh’s recall announcement, on Sept. 9, the agency took the unusual step of warning consumers not to use the phones while it did more research, and said it would work to determine whether Samsung’s plan to issue replacement phones was “an acceptable remedy.”
A few days later, Samsung and the CPSC finally agreed to a formal joint recall.
Meanwhile, complaints about overheating replacement phones, and of isolated cases of battery failures, began emerging. A Samsung spokesman said initially there was no safety concern.
In China, where the company used only Amperex-supplied batteries in its Note 7s, the company dismissed reported smartphone fires as fabrications, arguing it was impossible for those batteries to have caused problems.
As it became clear the reported problems were multiplying, employees describe a kind of gallows humor setting in. One mobile division executive described the Galaxy Note 7 as a “radioactive” topic, with staffers afraid of even discussing it in the company canteen.
A local television news crew camped outside the offices at 6 a.m. to film a report about how many lights were on at the company, to illustrate the depth of the company’s crisis.
Then came the evacuation of a Southwest Airlines Co. flight in early October because of a smoking Samsung smartphone.
Top executives from major telecoms operators, including Verizon Communications Inc.’s Lowell McAdam, urged Mr. Lee to quickly kill the Galaxy Note 7 smartphone, according to people familiar with the matter. The executives told Mr. Lee the smartphone was becoming increasingly unsalable.
On Oct. 11, Mr. Lee called Mr. Koh and ordered him to discontinue the smartphone. Later that day, Mr. Koh wrote a letter to the company’s mobile division, a copy of which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, calling the crisis “one of the toughest challenges we have ever faced.”
While the decision to abort the Note 7 has halted the damage for now, analysts have raised questions about the future of the Galaxy Note series, arguing that the brand has become too tarnished by the crisis and that the company should retire it altogether.
At least two U.S. senators, Bill Nelson of Florida and Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, have asked for more details about Samsung communication with the CPSC and its handling of the phone crisis. Mr. Blumenthal noted in a letter to Samsung released publicly that so far in the current fiasco, Samsung has reported 96 incidents of batteries overheating in the U.S., including 13 burns and 47 cases of property damage.
Last week, at the urging of CPSC Chairman Elliot Kaye, the agency approved a proposal for a wide-ranging inquiry into lithium ion and related batteries in coming months.
“There are few things in life I’m reasonably confident of predicting; one of those is….we’re going to have yet another issue of lithium ion batteries catching fire” from a range of devices, said CPSC commissioner Robert Adler. “This is just a massive problem.”

2016年10月22日 星期六

The costs and lessons of Samsung Cancels Galaxy Note 7

集邦科技分析師呂理舜指出,因鋰電池爆炸對生命財產會造成傷害,所以廠商檢驗嚴格,一般零組件如機殼,對良率並無絕對要求,對科技產品的鋰電池,良率則是 100 萬顆只允許 10 顆以下出問題。但三星 Note 7 爆炸起碼 35 起,發生比率是百萬分之二十四,遠超過一般業界標準一倍多。

身為市值超過新台幣 7 兆元、全球企業排行前 30 名的三星,怎麼會犯下這種不可思議的錯?




生魚片理論,曾為三星帶來巨大的成功。2011 年,三星先看準消費者對大尺寸螢幕手機的需求,推出 5.3 吋大螢幕的 Note,那時蘋果因創辦人賈伯斯立下規則,堅持不做大螢幕手機,推出的 iPhone 4s 螢幕仍只有 3.5 吋,這給予三星可乘之機,穩站智慧型手機的冠軍寶座,蘋果往後只能屈居第二。






雖然現在,三星在智慧型手機市佔率全世界第一,乍看之下沒有天敵,但中國手機廠包括華為、小米、OPPO 等,已變成緊咬三星不放的「鯰魚群」。它們不但價格低,連規格都不差,手裡還握有中國這片市場。

三星的售價無法比中國廠商更低,這讓其更急於在外觀與規格上明顯提升。所以,Note 7 不但電池容量高,還想把所有「優點」都放進一款手機,快速充電、曲面螢幕等,應有盡有。每一項功能分開來看都很美好,合在一起卻讓電池過熱,更加速電池爆炸的風險。

三星繳了 1,600 億元學費所換得的一堂冒險課,也值得我們所有人深思。
Samsung's awful smartphone launch is a holiday gift to Google
Washington Post
Samsung is a crucial Google partner for its Android mobile operating system. Indeed, Android and Samsung have become almost synonymous for ...

Android Circuit: Note 7 Nightmare Is Official, Apple Overpowers Samsung, Hating The Perfect Pixel

Taking a look back at seven days of news and headlines across the world of Android, this week’s Android Circuit includes Samsung’s official cancellation of the Galaxy Note 7, how Apple will exploit Samsung’s mistake, why people hate the practically perfect Pixel, Google Duo taking over from Hangouts, Google’s Android Wear smartwatches leak, Three’s UK exclusive deal with ZTE, and Sony’s promise to bring mobile games to Android during 2017.
Android Circuit is here to remind you of a few of the many things that have happened around Android in the last week (and you can find the weekly Apple news digest here).
Samsung Cancels Galaxy Note 7
There’s no doubt what the biggest news in the Android world is this week – Samsung stopping production of the Galaxy Note 7, recalling all the units currently in the market and with consumers, and telling everyone to power their Note 7 down and to not use them. Samsung’s shares are down eight percent, the brand name of Note is likely dead, Galaxy is wounded, and Samsung itself may not escape the tarring and feathering of in the public’s mind. Forbes’ Parmy Olson reports:
Killing the Note 7 means Samsung will lose potential sales of 19 million phones, or nearly $17 billion, which the company was expected to make during the device’s product cycle, according to Credit Suisse analysts cited by Reuters.
Samsung has around $70 billion on its balance sheet, so these are costs that it can absorb. But the bigger problem for the company, which derives around half its profits from its mobile division, will be the impact of the Note 7 crisis on its reputation, and the Galaxy brand.
That’s something Apple will surely be able to capitalize on this holiday season with the recent release of its iPhone 7, as will Google, with the launch of its new Pixel smartphone...

Note 7爆炸損失慘重 三星至少賠1710億

【林文彬╱綜合外電報導】三星電子停止販售智慧手機Galaxy Note 7對該公司的衝擊不容小覷,三星繼周三將第3季營業利益預測下修2.6兆韓元後,昨預測該公司在明年3月底止的2季營業利益將減少約3.5兆韓元,這代表Note 7風暴至少使三星賠上6.1兆韓元(54億美元,約1710億元台幣)。
三星表示,該公司第4季和明年第1季營業利益將分別減少2.5兆及1兆韓元,三星為彌補損失,將擴大販售Galaxy S7和Galaxy S7 edge等裝置。另外,三星也將「大幅調整」品質保證程序,以改善產品安全。


盡快找出Note 7問題所在並向外界說明,是三星品牌東山再起的關鍵。
三星把舊版Note 7自燃歸咎於電池有瑕疵,但未解釋新版Note 7為何也自燃。HDC資產管理公司基金經理人朴鄭勳(音譯)說:「三星必須明確解釋新版Note 7為何自燃,並消除不確定性。」
三星因擔心Note 7在回收過程中自燃,特別準備耐高溫的防火盒,但這麼做卻使三星被網友嘲笑一番。推特(twitter)用戶@powermax說,「三星防火盒?他們測試過這個盒子嗎?」 


今年8月,南韓出口在經歷連續16個月衰退,突然在8月出現2.6%的成長,原來是Note 7效應發酵。三星搶著在iPhone 7新機發表之前出手,為了搶佔市場,三星在奧運布下天羅地網的行銷攻勢,包括致送每位奧運選手奧運款Note 7手機,希望狠狠挫殺Apple的銳氣。
但是這個搶佔市場的攻勢犯了一個急躁的毛病,舊版的Note 7發生爆炸事件,經查是三星電子旗下三星SDI電池出事,這次新版電池改由中國「新能源科技股份有限公司」(AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY)生產,被三星視為安全替代品,但依然發生爆炸事件。
Note 7連環爆,重傷三星Galaxy手機品牌形象,假如三星不能向客戶確保未來推出的新型手機不會再出現相同問題,那麼三星一手打造出來的手機王國恐怕會出現重傷害。
三星下架Note 7之後,Apple成為意外贏家,9月iPhone 7可能多售出1400至1500萬支,而在同樣Android平台,華為、OPPO等中國手機品牌廠也可能趁勢崛起,三星Note 7爆炸風暴可能使得全球手機市場出現重新洗牌的效應,蘋果更進一步鞏固霸業,中國手機廠則搶食三星原有的市場大餅。



2016年10月20日 星期四

operational definition ;郵包物品,次數頻繁 ;"sedentary"?





Does Taking Fewer Than 5,000 Steps a Day Make You Sedentary?
Sedentary status cannot be defined by how many or few daily steps you manage.