「華人戴明學院」是戴明哲學的學習共同體 ,致力於淵博型智識系統的研究、推廣和運用。 The purpose of this blog is to advance the ideas and ideals of W. Edwards Deming.

2009年1月30日 星期五

Does Bran Make the Man? What Statistics Really Tell Us

統計學爭議

技術 Wikipedia article "Bonferroni correction".

*****
2009年 01月 29日 13:26

你的性別取決於你媽懷你時吃什麼? 此題翻譯誤會正文

婦早餐時是否吃谷類食品會決定胎兒的性別?

英國一家科學期刊就這個問題展開了一場爭論,從中我們可以看出某些觀察性研究的結果不可輕信。

去 年四月,《英國皇家學會會報-B輯》(Proceedings of the Royal Society B)刊登了一篇研究報告──《你是由你母親吃什麼決定的》(You Are What Your Mother Eats),在全球引起巨大反響。來自艾克斯特大學和牛津大學的研究人員請740名懷孕婦女記錄下她們在孕期和懷孕之前的飲食。結果並不出人意料,孕婦懷 孕期的飲食和胎兒性別沒什麼聯系。

Michael Sloan

不過,懷孕期攝入熱量最多的孕婦中,有56%生了男孩;攝入熱量最少的孕婦中,有45%生了男孩。在研究涉及的132種單獨食物中,谷類早餐食品與生男孩的關系最為明顯。

怎麼會這樣?研究報告的作者表示,動物研究也發現在食物充足時更容易生育雄性後代:他們猜測孕婦的血糖含量較高可能有利於雄性胎兒存活,因為雄性胎兒比雌性略重。

美國的一些統計學家認為這是一派胡言,他們懷疑這個結論只是一大堆統計數據中偶然出現的錯誤關聯。

美 國國家統計科學研究院(National Institute of Statistical Sciences)的副主任斯坦﹒榮格(Stan Young)說,可以這麼看:拿到的一把牌中全是方片牌的可能性微乎其微,但要把范圍擴大到全世界的所有牌局,這還是有可能的。他獲得了上述研究數據,對 其重新進行了分析,並在本期《英國皇家學會會報》上撰文評論說,谷類食品攝入量與胎兒性別的關系純屬偶然。

研究報告的作者們則撰文反駁榮格的分析,以捍衛自己的研究發現。

除了有關谷類食品的爭論,統計學家和流行病學家還在這種觀察性研究中存在的偶然性問題上存在巨大分歧;所謂觀察性研究就是研究人員追蹤人們的生活習慣,尋找這些習慣與他們身體健康之間的關系,但在追蹤過程中完全沒有實施幹預。

統 計學家表示,此類研究經常會出現偶然性聯系,這也是為什麼研究結果許多都相互矛盾的原因。為了証明這一點,安大略的研究人員研究了住院患者的星座,發現射 手座的人容易骨折,雙魚座的人容易產生心臟問題,如此等等。這種聯系符合“具統計學意義”的傳統數學標準,但卻是完全偶然性的,換一個不同的樣本重新研 究,此前的結果就不存在了。

一些統計學家認為,研究人員在分析大量數據時應該採取更為嚴格的証明標準。一個方法是採取 Bonferroni調整,要求用相關數學公式除以變量的數目;如果研究的是100種食物,那麼必須有比尋常高100倍的關聯度才能被認為具統計學意義。 否則,統計學家表示只有進行嚴格的臨床試驗,對比一個控制組、一個測試組以及一個變量,才能真正証明因果關系。

流行病學家則認 為,Bonferroni調整忽視了許多合理發現,而且同時研究多少其他因素並不會影響研究結果。他們還指出,控制性的臨床試驗代價不菲、耗時持久,有時 還不道德。拿吸煙和肺癌之間關系的研究來說,許多觀察性研究都發現了這一點,但要迫使研究對象吸煙多年來証明這一點恐怕是不可能的。

在上述的谷類食品研究中,榮格認為,要使研究結果具統計學意義,孕婦懷孕中期的飲食數據應該被考慮進去。而經過這一調整,所謂谷類早餐食品與胎兒性別的關聯度就失去統計學意義了。他說,如果你先入為主地去挑選數據的話,你能找到可証實你任何預想的數據。

那篇研究報告的主要作者費奧娜﹒馬修斯(Fiona Mathews)反駁道,孕婦在懷孕中期的飲食根本無法影響成形胎兒的性別。馬修斯是艾克斯特大學的一名哺乳動物學講師。她表示,加入那些數據只是為了進行比較。

那麼谷類早餐食品會影響胎兒性別嗎?先別急。一個好經驗是耐心等待,看看再次進行這一觀察性研究時是否能得出同樣結果。馬修斯表示,她打算再次進行研究。

Does Bran Make the Man? What Statistics Really Tell Us


MELINDA BECK

Can eating breakfast cereal determine the sex of your baby?

A debate over that question in a British scientific journal shows why some observational studies should be taken with a big shaker of salt.

The original study, "You Are What Your Mother Eats," in the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society B, made headlines around the world last April. Researchers at Exeter and Oxford universities asked 740 pregnant women to record what they ate during pregnancy and just before. Not surprisingly, their diets during pregnancy had no correlation with their babies' gender.

[breakfast cereal] Michael Sloan

But 56% of women who consumed the most calories before conception gave birth to boys, compared with 45% of those who consumed the least. Of 132 individual foods tracked, breakfast cereal was the most significantly linked with baby boys.

How could that be? The authors said animal studies also found male offspring are more common in times of plenty; they speculated that higher glucose levels in mothers may favor the survival of male embryos, which are slightly heavier than females.

Baloney, said some U.S. statisticians, who suspected the finding was simply a false association that can occur by chance in a large set of data.

Making Sense of Studies

Following health news is a lot like watching a ping-pong match: reports linking fat or coffee or alcohol with various ills one week often get contradicted the next. Often, such findings come from observational studies that aren't as precise as randomized controlled trials. Some experts think they shouldn't be published until they've been confirmed with repeat studies.

What's your view? How much do you trust the health news you hear?

"Think of it this way: The probability of getting all spades in a given bridge hand is infinitesimally small, but in all the bridge games all over the world, somebody might," says Stan Young, assistant director of the National Institute of Statistical Sciences in Research Triangle Park, N.C. He obtained the study data, re-analyzed it and wrote a commentary in the journal's current issue saying the cereal finding was pure chance.

The study's authors wrote a rebuttal disputing Dr. Young's analysis and standing by their findings.

Behind the cereal squabble lies a deep divide between statisticians and epidemiologists about the nature of chance in observational studies in which researchers track peoples' habits and look for associations with their health but don't intervene at all.

(Read the Studies

Subscription to the journal or pay to access may be required)

Statisticians say random associations are rampant in such studies, which is why so many have contradictory findings. To prove the point, researchers in Ontario studied the astrological signs of hospital patients and found that Sagittarians are susceptible to fractures, Pisces are prone to heart failure, and so on. The links met the traditional mathematical standard for "statistical significance" but were completely random, and disappeared when the study was repeated with a different sample.

Some statisticians argue for a tougher standard of proof when researchers are fishing in large data sets. One method, a Bonferroni adjustment, requires dividing the usual mathematical formula by the number of variables; if 100 foods are studied, the link must be 100 times as strong as usual to be considered significant. Otherwise, statisticians say only strict clinical trials with a control group and a test group and one variable can truly prove a cause-and-effect association.

Epidemiologists argue that a Bonferroni adjustment throws out many legitimate findings, and that it's irrelevant how many other factors are studied simultaneously. They also note that controlled clinical trials are costly, time-consuming and sometimes unethical. The link between smoking and cancer, for example, was seen in many observational studies, but forcing subjects to smoke for years to prove it would be untenable.

In the cereal study, Dr. Young argues that the data collected on the mothers' diets at mid-pregnancy should be factored into the adjustment for statistical significance, and that when it is, the significance of breakfast cereal vanished. "If you can pick and choose your data after the fact, you can make them look however you want," he says.

"There's no way that the mother's diet in mid-pregnancy would affect the gender of her infant," counters Fiona Mathews, the lead author and a lecturer in mammalian biology at Exeter, who says that data was included only for comparison.

So does breakfast cereal affect a baby's gender? Don't paint the nursery yet. A good rule of thumb is to wait and see if an observation association pops up again when the study is repeated, something Dr. Mathews says she plans to do.





Printed in The Wall Street Journal, page D1

Copyright 2008 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved

2009年1月25日 星期日

Census Crunch Time 2009

「census」的搜尋結果

Census Crunch Time


Published: January 8, 2009

President-elect Barack Obama has pledged to quickly nominate a commerce secretary after his first choice, Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico, withdrew this week. Frankly, the far more pressing task at the Commerce Department is to name a new director of the Census Bureau.

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Times Topics: Census Bureau

With only a year to go before the nationwide count in 2010, Mr. Obama needs to nominate a strong new director who can move swiftly to counteract years of political meddling and neglect that have left the bureau ill prepared to conduct the next census.

This page has issued many warnings about the bureau’s state of unreadiness, as have members of Congress and advocates for groups that tend to be undercounted in a less-than-robust census, especially racial and ethnic minorities, immigrants, the poor and the disabled. In November, Congressional investigators named the 2010 census as one of 13 issues requiring Mr. Obama’s immediate attention.

Any further delay increases the chances, which are already too high, of a botched census in 2010. That would be a very expensive failure of a constitutionally mandated duty on Mr. Obama’s watch. The damage would be compounded in 2012, when the new census data will be used by state governments to redraw electoral districts. If the census is not accurate, the electoral map also would not be — for years to come.

If Mr. Obama and his team need any more reasons to act now to rescue the census, they should note that the party most likely to benefit from a faulty count is certainly not their own. That’s because an inaccurate census generally overcounts people who tend to fit the Republican profile — white, English-speaking and suburban — and to undercount diverse, mobile urban populations.

The census also is used to allocate federal aid to states — an increasingly important issue in the midst of the country’s deep economic troubles.

More than a month ago, this page noted that the director of the acclaimed 2000 census, Kenneth Prewitt, would be the obvious choice to pull the 2010 census out of the hat. If the Obama team has a better candidate, it’s past time to put his or her name forward.


人口普查漏列少數裔 兩黨政爭焦點

國會參議員葛雷格(Judd Gregg,共和黨,新罕布夏州)本月12日退出商務部長提名,不僅使歐巴馬總統邀請共和黨人士入閣的努力破局,舊金山紀事報23日指出,此事還凸顯一年後將進行的2010年人口普查,已成為兩黨政爭的焦點。

人口普查本身即具有高度的政治性,事關選區視人口增減重新公平規劃,影響國會議員席位分配;聯邦政府也將根據人口普查數據,決定撥給地方政府的公路、學校、警察經費,因此備受政界重視。

葛雷格退出提名時公然表示,他與歐巴馬就2010年人口普查,有「無法化解的歧見」。問題在於,歐巴馬決定把原屬商務部主管的人口普查,讓白宮扮演更重要角色。早先的報導指出,歐巴馬政府擬把人口普查局的預算追加70億至80億元,也令葛雷格不滿。

舊金山紀事報指出,歐巴馬的行動旨在安撫非洲裔和拉丁美洲裔,他們抗議任命葛雷格出任商務部長,因為他一向主張限制人口普查局經費。

他們擔心,葛雷格上任後,將使人口普查少算非洲裔和拉丁美洲裔人口問題,更加嚴重。

歐巴馬加強白宮對人口普查的監督權,激怒了共和黨人士,指控他放任民主黨「奪權」。歐巴馬強調,他沒有剝奪商務部主管人口普查的權力,但無論如何,葛雷格退出提名。

紀事報指出,華府這場戲劇化政爭的背後,有一個長期問題:窮人、移民和年輕人,很難清點,因為他們流動性太高,而且不大理會人口普查的清點員。

都市的少數族裔被人口普查漏列,是政爭的焦點。他們通常投票支持民主黨,所以民主黨對人口普查非常認真。相對的,少算這類人口,對共和黨比較有利。

2009年1月24日 星期六

三頭六臂集 143-58


158

春節補看侄子電腦中的"海角七號"
補看大妹借的書 找出別字
鍾博士的 "百衲"寫成百納
無國境世代 (有一小錯是將羅素說成盧騷 guru寫成gulu)
157
新春突然異想天開將兩世紀兩國家的健康問題對比一下
這只是"聯想"
現在連第一流的醫學雜誌都很難區分 相關與因果
Mass murder and the market ( Russia ) vs Eighteenth-century Britain

156
有時候我會推薦某些blogger轉去可以掛廣告的blog
因為多少可以賺點錢零花
今天讀到 " 小花趴 趴走 三十三間堂

var desc_iframeW=65535, tmpW=0; tmpW = document.getElementById('container1').clientWidth; if(tmpW > 0) desc_iframeW = Math.min(desc_iframeW, tmpW); tmpW = document.getElementById('container2').clientWidth; if(tmpW > 0) desc_iframeW = Math.min(desc_iframeW, tmpW); tmpW = document.getElementById('banner').clientWidth; if(tmpW > 0) desc_iframeW = Math.min(desc_iframeW, tmpW); tmpW = document.getElementById('pageheader').clientWidth; if(tmpW > 0) desc_iframeW = Math.min(desc_iframeW, tmpW); tmpW = document.getElementById('description2').clientWidth; if(tmpW > 0) desc_iframeW = Math.min(desc_iframeW, tmpW); function desc_autoWidth(iframe) { if(desc_iframeW > 0 && desc_iframeW < width =" desc_iframeW;"> 這兒已經不再發新文章了喔!
請各位朋友轉移到小花的新家喔!
回應文章也請到新家喔!
新的小花趴趴走:
http://shuaicathy.blogspot.com/"

p.7 On Process

San-ju-san-Do, temple of thirty-three bays, Kyoto...此處關於"間"之翻譯可能有錯錯誤

bay 格間(ごうま)
  1. Architecture. A part of a building marked off by vertical elements, such as columns or pilasters: an arcade divided into ten bays.


" 位於京都東山的三十三間堂(Sanjusangen-do)是一間頗為特殊的寺廟,在京都眾多的寺廟中,可算是蠻有特色的。三十三間堂正式的名稱應該是蓮 華王院(Rengeo-in),大約在西元1164年由平清盛所建造而成,不過在80年後卻不幸被燒毀,燒毀後立即就修復重建,到了西元1266年重建完 成。此後歷經了幾次的戰火,所幸都能修復完成,三十三間堂保存至今已有700多年了!

三十三間堂這個名字大家應該會覺得很奇怪吧!三十三 間到底是什麼呢?小花本來以為是不是有33間小廟組合而成,結果還真錯得離譜啊!"間(gen)"是日 本古時候一種用在建築物度量長度的單位,一間大概是1.75到1.9公尺,這個長度也是柱子到柱子間的長度,而蓮華王院的本堂長度就是33間,所以又稱為 三十三間堂。不過三十三又代表著佛祖在人世間拯救眾生的33種面相。"

The Phenomenon of Life: Nature of Order, Book 1: An Essay on the Art of Building and the Nature of the Universe


155
我看達達用土法煉鋼的方式在對統一發票之獎
提起近三十年前在工研院電子所的資訊部門 就有自撰的自動對號程式
沒想到它竟然還未普及

154

"只有回憶被整理 被凝視 被重新賦予意義時 活過的軌跡才透顯出它的價值...."鍾怡雯 "我和我豢養的宇宙" 頁177

"諸君,

胡子丹先生的書《跨世紀的糾葛》,初版原名《我在3212天》,是國內最早的一本白色恐怖受難者自述。
胡先生為自己的八十壽辰印製新版,相贈親友紀念,也為當代史留下豐富的註腳。
後生者如我銜命作序,備感榮幸…

http://blog.roodo.com/michaelcarolina/archives/8157813.html

Enjoy Reading
-------------------------
Michael Lin 林世煜 "

153

我經常會去看台大歷史系辦公室前的過去兩大報之報章
桌上經常擺著乏人問津而印刷精美的台大校
現在什麼時代了 台大仍然這樣浪費
更重要的是內容多是歌功頌德的浮面報導
管理學院的季報類似 乏善可陳

現在可以參考發行一百多萬份的學院網路通信之一篇文章 它報導一門課程的第一堂課
Finance and Investment
Lesson One: What Really Lies Behind the Financial Crisis?

What was the true cause of the worst financial crisis the world has seen since the Great Depression? Was it excessive greed on Wall Street? Was it mark-to-market accounting? The answer is none of the above, according to Jeremy Siegel, a professor of finance at Wharton. While these factors contributed to the crisis, they do not represent its most significant cause. Siegel provided a detailed analysis of the factors that fueled the meltdown during the inaugural lecture of a 15-session course on the financial crisis that Wharton is offering MBA and undergraduate students.
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/2148.cfm
152

"Two straight quarters of falling output is the most widely accepted definition of a recession. Britain's economy has been hard hit by the world financial crisis, with rising unemployment, falling house prices and its slumping currency, the pound sterling.
"

連續兩季的全國產出減少就可稱為衰退
這"領域"似乎與統計管制的道理相差頗多

經濟新潮要出版一本討論大蕭條的書
不過或可參考最近的一討論
The Financial Crisis: Bad and Getting Worse, but
Put Away that D-word

It began as the "subprime crisis" in 2007, and then mushroomed into a full-blown global recession in 2008. And still, despite mammoth government intervention, the bad news keeps getting worse. Are we now teetering on a precipice, ready to plunge into another Great Depression? Can the latest proposals pull the economy out of its nosedive? There is plenty to worry about. But while many experts say this crisis is the worst since the Depression, that doesn't mean it will be as bad.
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/2147.cfm

151

我與一位朋友談世界大事
他說芬蘭的政治清明世界第一 可惜自殺率也冠全球
我說 這兩統計值相衝突 我可相信前者 不過後者不太可思議
自殺率是一重要的社會資料 很容易找到
譬如說中文

我們類似的誤信是相當多的
必須先抱懷疑的態度

150
"公視祝您牛轉錢坤 新年快樂
公視感謝觀眾的支持,特別製作「公視好牛年 新春送福袋」call-in互動節目,為觀眾『哞』福利! "
我們這些欣賞過 BBC和NHK節目之精彩的人 對於台灣的公共電視台當然覺得它差多了
可是 它畢竟是我們自己的
最近看它播韓國的"陶瓷" 節目 可以知道韓國之眼界和魄力 這是台灣永遠做不成的
可是我們畢竟有機會當"觀眾"
或是我們聽閩南語唱鄧雨賢故事改編之歌劇 會含淚驚喜 就像昔日林語堂先生在士林聽到鄉音一般

149

我們這戴明圈部落加了許多篇從"聯合知識庫"下來的文章
這市我為日本朋友 Kawase先生找日本影歌星在台灣活動的情形之副產品

經濟日報的副刊編輯很不用心 譬如說2000年我寫的"紀念戴明百歲" 分三天登 其中兩天將我的姓寫錯 (內容是我自己打好的字)
許多內容我並不同意 不過它們畢竟保留當時的某些人物的看法

UDN的電腦化很可行 反觀品管協會 (csq)的月刊之電腦化 則是被廠商綁架

148

"(中央社波士頓21日路透電)今天刊出的一份研究報告指出,這20年來美國空氣品質改善,使每個美國人平均增加了21週壽命。 美國猶他州楊百翰大學(Brigham YoungUniversity in Utah)流行病學家波普(Arden Pope)表示,改掉抽菸習慣是讓美國人活更久的主要原因。 ..."
現在我們注意一下 台灣香煙盒上的"可怕的吸煙口腔惡果" (一套三圖) 或類似 登 "未成年請勿喝酒"等做法 是否只是"口號" 更有效的可能是'以價制量"

你要威脅邱吉爾不吸雪茄 或要戴明的牛排上少加那麼多的調味 可能沒什麼作用的


147
有位老闆向我請教開會的技術
我說紐約時報寫美國新總統的開會方式或許可供參考
Little has emerged about the process behind those episodes, but aides described Mr. Obama’s decision making as crisp and efficient. When he sits down for meetings, they said, he starts by framing questions he wants answered, then gives each person a chance to talk, while also engaging them. At the end, he typically sums up what he has learned and where he is leaning. A late-night person, he often follows up with calls to aides at 10 p.m. or later, after he has put his daughters to bed.
146
台灣的消費券發放號稱很成功
不過 不可思議的是 竟然三四天之後還無法統計出誤發出的金額等等
你能相信沒有誤差甚至於完成無法掌控誤差的金錢服務過程嗎


一周之後再補此笑話
消費券查核 短差逾千萬元



【記者黃揚明台北報導】消費券第一階段發放時,全國許多發券所發生消費券數量異常,內政部因此啟動覆核機制。內政部長廖了以昨天傍晚召開記者會公布初步覆 核結果,發放當日繳回郵局短差金額為一千九百八十三萬一千九百元,目前經查核後短缺減少七百五十四萬八千元,目前短差金額仍有一千二百二十八萬三千九百 元。

廖了以強調,昨天公布的結果並非最後數字,因為目前仍有部分鄉鎮市區尚未完成覆核工作,內政部已要求這些地區及「已完成複核但複核前後的數據完全沒有變動的發券所」進行第二次複核,要求在二月五日前完成整個覆核作業。

為何發券短缺數量差異如此大?廖了以指出,主因是「已領券卻未蓋章」,也就是委託書上已簽名蓋章但未在印領清冊上蓋章導致。

經過複查後,短缺金額雖已減少三分之一,但金額仍超過一千萬元。廖了以表示,第二階段覆核預計可再減少一百八十萬元左右,加上保險機制預估可理賠約四百八十萬,最後的短差金額約為五百六十八萬左右,因此,發券正確率仍達百分之九十九點九九三。

廖了以日前曾說會自掏腰包處理最後短差金額,廖了以昨天仍強調 :「個人會承擔一切,不會讓國庫有任何損失」。他也再度肯定發券工作人員的辛勞。


145

毛姆(William Somerset Maugham)說得好 ,"There are three rules for writing a novel. Unfortunately, no one knows what they are."

同樣的,或許沒有什麼說得出來的經營管理之卓越之道,所以說什麼 "標竿企業學習"等等,或許是"迷思",


144
美國總統就職宣誓儀式中大法官的"掉以輕心"之走調

slip-up deconstruction of the oath of office


143
手術前用查核表確定團員每人都認識或消毒完全等等 就能大幅降低併發症等的發生

Checklist Reduces Deaths in Surgery

Kalim A. Bhatti for The New York Times

A new checklist could help lower the risk of complications from surgeries.


Published: January 14, 2009

A checklist for surgical teams that includes steps as basic as having the doctors and nurses introduce themselves can significantly lower the number of deaths and complications, researchers reported Wednesday.

“Surgical complications are a considerable cause of death and disability around the world,” the researchers wrote in the online edition of The New England Journal of Medicine. “They are devastating to patients, costly to health care systems and often preventable.”

But a year after surgical teams at eight hospitals adopted a 19-item checklist, the average patient death rate fell more than 40 percent and the rate of complications fell by about a third, the researchers reported.

The senior author of the study, Dr. Atul A. Gawande of the Harvard School of Public Health, said it was hard to identify which items on the checklist had proved the most important.

But even a small change, like having surgical team members take a moment to say who they are and what they do before scalpel touches skin, can have important consequences later on should one of them develop a concern during the operation. Earlier studies have shown that communication problems are fairly common in operating rooms, with junior members of the team sometimes hesitant to speak up.

“Giving them a chance to say their names allows them to speak up later,” Dr. Gawande said.

Other items on the checklist are of more obvious importance, like a requirement that the nursing staff confirm that everything has been sterilized and that all equipment needed is present. Team members must also confirm that the patient has been given antibiotics ahead of the surgery, if called for, to reduce the chance of infection.

The checklist also requires team members to verify that there is enough blood on hand if there is a risk of blood loss, that a piece of equipment that measures blood oxygenation is working and that all the medical images needed are present.

Before the operation begins, the checklist calls for the team to confirm the identity of the patient and the nature of the procedure. Afterward, the doctors and nurses are supposed to review what has been done, including discussing any special steps that need to be taken to aid recovery and confirming no equipment has been left in the patient.

The researchers, working with the World Health Organization, conducted the study over a year at hospitals in the United States, Canada, England, Jordan, New Zealand, India, the Philippines and Tanzania. The lead author of the study was Dr. Alex B. Haynes of Harvard.

The researchers reviewed the outcome of 7,688 patients who were undergoing noncardiac surgery at the hospitals. About half the patients had surgery before the checklists were adopted, and half after. At the end of the study, the average death rate dropped to 0.8 percent from 1.5 percent, and the average complication rate fell to 7 percent from 11 percent.

Some of the hospitals in the study have already begun using the checklist regularly, the researchers said. The changes can be made quickly and at little cost, they said.

The improvements in outcome, the researchers said, most likely came about not because of any one or two items on the checklist but from a combination of factors. Beyond that, the changes in procedure may have brought about a broader change in behavior that improved safety. The fact that the surgical teams knew that they were being studied may also have kept them on their toes, the researchers said.

2009年1月22日 星期四

戴明轉危為安 管理14要點的理念與實踐 OOTC

戴明轉危為安
管理14要點的理念與實踐
「管 理的14要點」,是美國工業轉型的基石;是管理者救亡圖存、保護投資者與工作機會的方法;是日本高階管理者的工作利器。 這份管理菁華,是天下文化將於7月出版的新書《轉危為安--- ---戴明管理14要點的理念與實踐》第二章內容,本刊獲得同意摘要刊出,以饗讀者。

這 14要點是美國工業轉型的基石。僅是解決眼前的小問題是不夠的,決心採取14要點並付諸行動,才是管理者救亡圖存,保護投資者與工作機會的方法。這是 1950年以來日本高階管理者努力的課題。救亡圖存的管理方案不論公司規模大小,服務業或製造業,都可應用這14要點。這14要點的提綱挈領如下:

(1)創造一個永恆不變的改善產品與服務的目的。此目的即是具有競爭力,持續經營,以及提供就業機會。

(2)採用新觀念。我們是處在一個新經營時代,西方的管理者必須醒悟,面對挑戰,了解自己的責任,並將領導轉型。

(3)停止靠檢驗來達成品質。第一次就把產品做好,不再依賴大量的檢驗。

(4)廢除以最低價競標的制度。而以降低總成本的方法來取代,每項物料以單一供應商為原則,建立彼此之間忠實與信賴的長期關係。

(5)不斷地改善生產與服務系統,以改善品質與生產力,如此成本也因而不斷地降低。

(6)建立在職訓練制度。

(7)建立領導體系。管理的目的是在幫助員工,使其工作得更好,讓機器設備更有效率的使用。管理者的管理與生產員工的管理一樣,也需要重新檢修。

(8)掃除恐懼感,使人人都能有效地為公司工作。

(9)破除部門與部門之間的障礙。研究發展、設計、銷售與生產人員必須以團隊精神工作,並事先發覺產品及服務可能碰到的潛在問題。

(10)消除那些要求員工做到零缺點及高生產力水準的標語、訓示,及目標。這些東西只會造成反效果,因為造成低品質生產力的許多原因,是屬於系統的問題,而不是工人所能控制的。

(11)(a)廢除工作標準量,而代之以領導。(b)廢除目標管理,廢除數值目標,代之以領導。

(12)(a)排除那些不能讓工人以其技術為榮的障礙。管理者的責任,應由僅重數量改為重視品質。(b)排除不能讓管理者及工程人員以其技術為榮的障礙。這也就是說年度考績制度及目標管理必須取消。

(13)建立一個有活力的自我教育與改善的活動。

(14)讓公司的每個人都致力於這種管理轉型的工作;這種轉型是每個人的工作。以下將詳述14要點。建立永恒不變的經營目的(1)創造永恆不變的、改善產品與服務的目的。公司若希望事業永續,必須同時面對今日的問題與明日的問題。

今日的問題包括產品品質之維持,產量之控制(勿使其超出近期銷售量過多)預算、雇用、利潤、銷售、公共關係、預估等。今日的問題較易解決;例如,可以採用一些辦公室自動化設備來達成增加效率的目的。

未 來的問題中,創造一個永恆不變的目的是最具關鍵性的。例如致力於改善公司的競爭地位,使公司能夠生存,並提供工作機會。又如,董事會的大員及總裁是否急功 近利,或努力於建立永恆不變的目的?下一季的分紅不會比公司能夠在今後10年、20年,或30年中繼續生存來得重要?創造永恆不變的目的,意味著必須履行 下列各項義務:永續經營的基本守則(1)創新。

這必須注意到長程計畫上資源的分配。有關未來的計畫必須考慮下列各點:

●具有市場空間的新產品及服務,能夠使人類物質生活過得更好。●為未來所需的新材料,成本上可行。

●生產方法可能改變生產設備。

●未來將需要新技術,其需要的數量有多少?

●人員的訓練與再訓練。

●督導人員的訓練。

●生產成本。

●行銷成本、服務計畫,以及服務成本。

●產品或服務在使用時之績效。

●使用者之滿意程度。

對創新的一項要求就是信心,管理者必須相信它有前途。創新是公司前途之基礎,除非高階管理者堅絕地承諾要改善品質與生產力,否則創新是不可能發展茁壯的。這項政策必須受到尊重而制度化,否則中階管理者及公司其他人將懷疑他們的努力是否有效。

(2)將資源投入研究及教育。

(3)經常改善產品與服務的設計。生產線上消費者最重要第三點應是一項永無止息的義務;因為消費者是生產線上最重要的部分。

認為有效率的生產與服務一定能使公司獲得利潤,並在競爭上領先,這是錯誤的。事實上,製造錯誤的產品或提供不當的服務,往往很容易使公司衰退而關閉。在這種情形下,即使每個人都致力於工作,或應用統計及其他方法來促進生產力,也是徒然。

你的顧客、你的供應商,還有你的員工,都需要你明確說明一個永恆不變的目標--立志永續經營公司,提供具有市場的產品與服務,使人們過更好的生活。

高階管理者必須昭告全體一件事:對品質及生產力有貢獻的人,都不會失去工作。

【1997-06-09/經濟日報/17版/副刊企管】

2009年1月15日 星期四

台灣戴明圈:2008年東海戴明學者講座 ii (再續前緣)

j




新書:『台灣戴明圈:2008年東海戴明學者講座


台灣戴明圈

── 2008年東海戴明學者講座

A Taiwanese Deming Circle (1964-2008)



目錄
致謝
序言(王晃三博士)7
開場白:故事、寓言(鍾漢清) 11
台灣戴明圈的故事(鍾漢清) 15
簡介戴明、威廉‧謝爾肯巴赫先生(鍾漢清) 23

第一部
導言:戴明到日本(鍾漢清) 35
戴明與台灣(簡記)(鍾漢清) 45
《1950 年戴明博士對日本高階經營者演講》 53
品管九講 譯者序言(劉振) 64
品管九講 品質管制與企業發展(小柳賢一) 67
日本品質管制之回顧(戴明) 74
日本的成就(戴明) 80

第二部
導言 (鍾漢清) 91
《戴明博士四日談》中文版導言(鍾漢清增修) 102
一首值得傳唱的史詩:《轉危為安》(鍾漢清) 109
運用戴明循環(鍾漢清) 118
鳥瞰 Lean/Six Sigma 運動 (1979-2008) (鍾漢清) 128
簡談實驗設計(鍾漢清) 153
由戴明理念談實驗設計之應用(蔡坤祥) 158
西式管理風格必須改弦更張(戴明) 163
戴明博士到 HP,團隊合作(鍾漢清) 172

第三部
2008 年東海戴明學者講座 185
主講人:威廉‧謝爾肯巴赫先生簡介 188
講座之一 193
講座之二 227
講座之三 252

尾聲 Epilog 2008 年戴明淵博知識系統之旅 275

附錄
第四部 東海…人物
播種季 286
東海大學和 英國 Essex 大學的點滴 288
從東海第七宿舍讀司馬賀先生談 30 年的緣份 294
慶祝東海 IE 創立四十年 鍾漢清 297
前進英國省錢大作戰 - Less $ can be more 300

難忘的師長
引言:從漢寶德老師談其他老師 305
陳其寬老師 310
高禩瑾院長 314
劉振老師 322
劉振老師紀念獎 Liu Cheng Award 328
紀念 吳玉印(Yuin Wu)老師 330
王錦堂老師 334
張忠樸先生 338



Rome: The Vatican--Sala Delle Muse By Thomas Hardy






圈內
in the loop

GM和 Ford的失敗簡史

這從管理上是一美國GM公司的重要試驗
Remember when General Motors introduced Saturn by proclaiming it was “A different kind of company. A different kind of car”? With Saturn, G.M. Failed a Makeover

Ford的過去榮光

2007 通信
David Hsu" Juran on Quality by Design 已近尾聲﹐這本書看了好久﹐除了我自己不專心外﹐Juran 的書與 Deming 的書似乎都不易懂﹐Juran 更有抓不到重點的感覺﹐不過總算要讀完了。 倒數第二章談 Taurus ﹐讓人不禁想﹐究竟後來出了什麼事?會讓這車種幾乎銷聲匿跡? (相對的 Accord 可以連續風光八代) "

hc"我記得當時寫過這作者的看法
Ford 將它給出粗租汽車業
以追求收入最大化
然後"大家" 是習以為常
記得是前年關廠

不過上周CEO訪問
似乎是該品台牌還在-租車業


著者:[美]米什莱恩·梅纳德
编译者:朱敏 杨力峰 等译
丛书名:译文经管
出版社:上海译文
ISBN:7532740331F.167
版次:01版01次
开本:16开
装帧:平装
页数:270


全面综合的分析……梅纳德以大量层层相扣的具体事实,
举出了一个极有说服力的案例。——《商业周刊》
梅纳德以清晰的条理写成本书,冷静地分析了底特律汽车帝国最终没落的原因。——《经济学家》周刊

本书作者米什莱恩·梅纳德《纽约时报》驻底特资深记者。她通过采访美国国内众多汽车企业的管者和员工等,生动、精辟地论述了近年来在日本等外汽车公司的猛烈进逼下,美国通用、福特、克莱斯勒三大汽车公司由于傲慢大,缺乏远见、判断失误以及错误运作等原因,面临土市场不断丧失的困境。
本书也揭示出,日本丰田本田等外国汽车公司能横扫美国汽车市场,占大量美国汽车市场份额的原因以可靠的质量、最新的技术、优良的设计、合理的价位……制造消费者真正想要购买和符合他们想象的汽。这些底特律曾经拥有的无可争议的优势,如今落入他人之手,成为底特律没落之因,真是莫讽刺!
本书对美国三大汽车公司没落原因的分析非常透彻,发人深省,这对正在走向汽车时代的中国,尤其是国内汽车及其他行业的管理人员从汲取教训,无疑具有很大的借鉴意义。

米什莱恩·梅纳德(Micheline
Maynard),《纽约时报》资深记者,主要负责汽车和航空领域的报道,同时也为《财富》、《今日美国》、《新闻日报》等供稿,并在密歇根大学商学院担任讲师。著有《碰撞历程:通用汽车公司内部的冲突》。...

作者作品:
· 《底特律的没落——三大汽车公司如何丧失美国本土市场》

序言
1 底特律如何失去了它的统治
2 倒下的功臣
3 殊途同归
4 从内到外的旅程
5 热狗、苹果派和佳美汽车
6 挑战者
7 攻占市场的高端和低端
8 南方底特律
9 底特律的没落
10 客户的真正需求
后记 2010年的美国汽车界
关于解决底特律问题的五点声明
致谢
参考书目
译后记


Currency/Doubleday
Business
ISBN: 0385507704

Take a drive on most U.S. highways and even consumers wholly
uninterested in the auto industry would have to agree with New York
Times automotive writer Micheline Maynard --- the Big Three's
dominance of the American car market is over.

Imports dominate California's car-clogged roads. In Texas, once
dominated by domestic truck brands Chevrolet and Ford, imports are
increasingly popular with younger, more affluent consumers. Even in
the Big Three's home state, Michigan, import brands have built some of
the biggest and most extravagant dealerships in the country to serve a
growing number of customers.

In August 2003, cold hard facts began piling up alongside such
anecdotal evidence. For the first time ever, Toyota outsold Chrysler,
now owned by the German-American company DaimlerChrysler. It was a
seminal point for the domestic carmakers that had tried everything
short of giving away cars to shore up their faltering market share in
the past two years. By September, the Big Three's market share hit 57
percent, a historic low.

How and why Toyota surged to this position and how once-dominant
brands of Ford, General Motors and Chrysler let it happen is at the
heart of THE END OF DETROIT.

Ms. Maynard deconstructs how imports from Korea, Japan and Germany
systematically have eaten away at the market share of U.S. car brands.
Through detailed and engaging reporting, she shows how these companies
consistently offered consumers higher quality, cheaper prices or more
dramatic styling and performance. She also talks about why the U.S.
companies have failed to stop the imports in their tracks.

Ms. Maynard does a superb job of offering insight and evidence as to
how Toyota and Honda grew from offering cheap energy efficient cars in
the 1970s to full-line auto makers with trucks and sport utility
vehicles that rival the power and performance of the domestic makers.

She dives into the differences between Honda and Toyota, explaining
how divergent these two Japanese companies really are, despite the
fact that they are often "mentioned in the same breath ---
Toyota-and-Honda, all run together --- as if they were one big company
instead of two." Ms. Maynard, however, rightly points out that the two
companies are following very different corporate paths to win
consumers. Both corporate strategies spell trouble for the domestic
automakers.

Toyota has plans to be the world's No. 1 automaker, overtaking General
Motors by the beginning of the next decade. Ms. Maynard believes
Toyota's domination is inevitable; she even writes a fictional news
story in which Toyota announces this fact. While it is hard to argue
with Toyota's superiority, Ms. Maynard doesn't discuss in detail
whether Toyota could fall prey to the same problems as the domestic
makers while it pushes for world domination.

By contrast, Honda is content to build vehicles for its small but
zealous customer base, Ms. Maynard says. Sometimes, ironically, those
zealous customers are in fact its biggest competitors. General Motors
now buys Honda engines for use in its vehicles.

She also outlines the comebacks of upstart brands such as Korea's
Hyundai and Japan's Nissan. Hyundai dominates the low-end of the
market with its inexpensive sedans and small sport utilities. Nissan
is pulling a flanking position by offering flashy, high performance
products like the 350Z and even a sexy minivan called Quest.

But when Ms. Maynard turns her attention to the U.S. automakers, it is
with less of the fine detail with which she brought the imports' story
to life. Her broad brush of the U.S. industry may leave readers
wanting more stories and details on how the Big Three lost their grip.
Instead, her re-telling of how Ford neglected the Taurus family sedan
and lost its No. 1 ranking to the Camry has an outsiders' feel, which
contrasts to the insider's feel of her reporting on Toyota and Honda.

鍾 漢清
--
David Hsu"謝謝 我也還記得您的這一段故事 但 Ford 所架構的 Taurus Team 竟沒能對Ford 後來的產品開發產生影響? 還是那一套對喜新厭舊的老美又"過時"了? 您提的那段 CEO訪問 好像Ford 有意重振Taurus雄風 就看他是否有此能耐了"
----
hc:"這之後
寫"Deming管理方法"的Mary Walton寫過一本暢銷書(約1995) The Car
詳說Ford一開發經驗
不過 似乎欲振乏力
汽車業是相當複雜的"
------


p.269
我們已經採取了緊急對策。現在是考慮中長期計劃的好時機。從根本上說,我們要回歸原點做事。憑藉“智慧與改進”、“客戶第一”、“當地現貨”的豐田理念制定相應對策。(特約撰稿人:桃田健史)


'

"Good Thinking, Good Products."
The original banner, in Japanese, hanging in a plant in Japan

"Good Thinking, Good Products." 奮鬥一甲子

Shifting Loyalties -A Challenge For US Retailers 1950的演講強調的消費者研究之一2009例子

關於序言(王晃三博士)

王老師這篇原題為
戴明?戴明?戴明!--戴明現象—一些觀察和體會
發表題目為
"戴明現象—四十年的觀察和體會"
他九月底一氣呵成寫完之後
我們都說他應該將他自家的"教育兒女之體會"例子寫出來
他事忙 年前終於補強為 "戴明現象—一些觀察和體會"
要求我和David 看稿 "HC 好不容易我終於走完了最後一里路 為了這沒走完的一步,我已經背負了重擔快兩個月 我是咬緊牙根才出來的 可憐的我就是這付德性 請你們繼續當我的諍友吧! 三呆 P。S。 請為我看還有沒有錯別字。"

我和David 大鳴大放
其中談到現象之用法
譬如說 Deming在 1960 Sample Design in Business Research
on Page 23: "... In every branch of science we lack the resources to study more than a fragment of the phenomena that might advance our knowledge.
可是英文另外一意思與"成功"關連 這是中文中沒有的

隔幾天 我寫
"今天中油公司的賴丹桂女士打電話來 她(主動)說這篇 (語重心長) 寫得很好 可見我們談的是雞蛋挑骨頭"
"現在 可以確定自己孤陋寡聞
我剛讀過孫康宜的蔡文甫現象 寫回憶錄"天生的 凡夫俗子" (易名為 "從零到九 的 九歌傳奇" 台北:九歌 2005)的讀後感 (pp. 483-91) 她是美國人 她說"...這些現象 我稱之為...."

David 說 "Ha,, 我也覺得寫得好棒 只是沒說出來而已!"


關於開場白:故事、寓言(鍾漢清)
"我不能移山
但能發光"

比較: "MANAGEMENT HAS MUCH POWER AND DISCRETION, BUT CAN NOT MOVE ALL THE EARTH. To the production worker, the system is all but him." (OOTC, p. 318, 1983)
"管理階層的權力和自主性很大 但畢竟不能移山倒海 而對生產線上的員工而言 系統就只有他而已" (改中文本370 頁)


關於"簡介戴明、威廉‧謝爾肯巴赫先生"
Dr. Deming 的履歷表很顯赫 所以這本書的介紹要用 "言不盡意 etc., etc., etc."
In the Appendix I " Participants in " The Politz's Papers" Project"

Dr. W. Edwards Deming,
Consultant in Statistical Surveys,
Wahington D. C.
(Distinguished mathematical statistician, probability sampling pioneer, quality control specialist, consultant to governments and multinational corporations etc., etc.,etc., etc.)


《1950 年戴明博士對日本高階經營者演講》

Notes by W. Edwards Deming (1990年4月)

The Politz Papers, pp. xiii-xvii (...with notes from WED. I read Alfred is the person persuaded WED to teach in NYU and worked together some papers, one of them was in the collection of papers. I read two participative cases in Sample design in Business Research.)

1993 Published The New Economics for Industry, Government, Education
(Cambridge, Mass.: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for
Advanced Engineering Study. 240 pp.)

這是第二版,就我所知道,原稿在約1996年起就在業界流傳。Deming是老式的人,很穩健,他寧可讓稿子傳閱數年之後再定稿。
我這次讀第一、二、三章之前的引言,都讓我溫故知新。

首先天下文化的翻譯版,似乎要陷Deming 於不義:他們將原書許多「引用或受教」聲明,多刪去!
我談一下我的收獲:第一章How Are We Doing? 現況的省思
Nothing can do you so much harm as a lousy competitor. Be thankful for
a good competitor.
對你傷害最大的,莫過於差勁的對手;對強勁的好對手應心存感激。
──波利茲(Alfred Politz)
這翻譯比較有趣的是標點:原句號改成分號。這樣意思相等嗎?

Alfred and I had numerous discussions on all of the foregoing, and we worked together to adapt sampling methods for his use in sampling individuals for nation-wide market surveys. Alfred Politz understood marketing research as a problem of the analytic kind, and we also discussed what we both considered the necessity to make predictions. We collaborated in a joint article, published in Journal of Marketing (see Chapter 5.2), in which we tried to explain that marketing requires predictions: that marketing research and consumer research are carried out for the purpose of making better predictions- to try to avoid wild shots.

He believed in cooperation, and created a spiritual of cooperation with well-meaning firms and individuals on Madison Avenue, friends and competitors alike. He shared with all of them the results of his own innovations, as well as his failures.

Alfred said repeatedly that no one can do you so much harm as a lousy competitor. So right he was. Be thankful for a good competitor.

While I may have contributed to Alfred Politz's work in market research, he contributed a great deal that was helpful to me in my international consulting work. In this later respect, I thought that the readers of this book might be interested in notes that follow, which were prepared in 1950 for conferences with top management of major corporations in Japan. (pp. xiv-xv)


我的知新是:稍微了解Alfred Politz。他的背景和Deming類似,都是從物理學轉抽樣統計與調查,成為當時名家。Alfred Politz 很早就發現受訪者容易「假仙」,從俗而不說真話……
有趣的是Hugh S. Hardy, ed. The Politz Papers: Science and Truth in
Marketing Research, Chicago: The American Marketing Association, 1990,
訪問Deming對傳主Politz 的看法,我轉引如下According to Edwards Deming,

"Politz was intimately involved in only the marketing side of the equation, but he fully understood and endorsed the dual importance of statistical quality control. This was evidenced by his life-long emphasis on the product first and advertising second. Alfred was a brilliant, articulate, scientifically trained immigrant who made a significant and lasting contribution to the world of marketing. This book will help to document that contribution."
(Hardy, 1990, xvii) Said to have "accomplished a near revolution in marketing research during his thirty-year tenure in the United States," (Hardy, 1990, xi)


1949年博士協助日本人口普查局準備 設計 1950年 10月的調查東京和大阪之人口

Return to book

31.on Page 267:
"... my privilege to be there during the preceding summer, and to assist in the design of a sample-tabulation of the complete census. The aim was to provide advance tabulations of a number of important characteristics of the people, not for small areas, ..."

Dr. Deming 從1930s就很重視消費者研究

on Page 301:
"... What constitutes a plausible assumption is of course the responsibility of the expert in the subject-matter (in this case, consumer-studies). A survey was to cover Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego, ..."

"...the expert in a substantive field (consumer research, engineering, production, accounting, psychology, law, etc.), although statisticians themselves have perhaps even more need for this kind of advice. ..."

今天接到美國賓州大學商學院的周刊電訊
才知道它的定戶數為百多萬戶呢
其中有一篇關於消費者心理等領域的研究 我將它放在

wanderlust, impulse, impulse buy

Not on the List? The Truth about Impulse Purchases




Bill Scherkenbach 先生是世界的首要品質和它的實施之權威人士。他過去三十年來成功地協助客戶達成優質並降低成本。他的事業,在咨詢和製造業職務之間,有最佳的平衡了: 美國三星半導體(Samsung), 戴爾電腦公司, 福特汽車, 美國國防部, Willis Corroon 公司, 美國能源部, 美國Booz Allen & Hamilton 顧問公司、波音航空公司、 Usinor/Sacilor 、美國 (日資 )Tokai Rika公司 , 通用汽車公司、南弗爾頓醫療中心、 CBS、英國宇航和美國 EDS

他的一些成就包括:

l Samsung半導體從頭創設、開發一個「精實的標準差」組織,在在第一二年的投資報酬率 (ROI) 350%

l 在中國、日本、馬來西亞, 和臺灣的第一級電子供應商評價並協助改善其製程能力。

l 教導並導引200 個商業流程改善(BPI ) 專案,節約金額超過1 億美元。

l 在福特公司任職全公司「統計方法」處長,達成國際水平的品質,成本節省超過十億美元。

l 在通用汽車公司帶領「產品開發過程」中的「為達成六標準差的新設計法」(DFSS-- Design for Six Sigma 。)之設計再造之部份,節省達二十億美元

l 在通用汽車公司開發並執行一透過電腦 /衛星的輔助品質教育訓練課程(四十個課程)。

l 教授並輔導來自Tyco 公司, CertainTeed 公司, Cummins 公司, 3M( at SBTI) 的高級黑帶和 黑帶(MBBs and BBs)

l Samsung 公司使用一自動化的SPC 系統將其檢驗等延誤的批數減少一半。

他在福特任職之前是Hittman 公司(能源和工程學咨詢公司、為Booz Allen 應用研究集團之一成員)之副總、專長是可靠性和可維護性。他是美國海軍學校的畢業生,並服役5 年(負責工程任務)並到過越南執勤。他並從紐約大學的商業研究院之Deming 博士之下學習,取得碩士學位。

在許多主要品質和管理的會議和公司高階主管會議,Bill 經常是基調演講人。他寫了許多關於品質的文章,他的作品為最近幾本書籍和兩片美國公共電視記錄片(PBS documentaries) 所引用。他是二本經常被援引、暢銷的品質管理書籍:『戴明修煉I 』、『戴明修煉II 』的作者。他將Deming 博士在經營管理方法的種種應用製作成兩張Breakthrough Performance 系列之CD-ROM "Deming: Best Efforts Are Not Enough!" DVD-ROM 教學工具。

他是有名望的「美國品質學會Deming 獎」和美國工程學會的金牌獎得主。他曾是美國優質保險會(QIC )和美國品質協會(ASQC )的理事。他是南佛羅里達的大學兼任副教授(研究所品管課程)。他目前是德克薩斯大學卓越表現中心之理事。



關於 引言:從漢寶德老師談其他老師

蔡文甫 寫回憶錄 (易名為 "從零到九 的 九歌傳奇" ___"天生的 凡夫俗子") 漢先生在華副的筆名"可凡"是幼女之名(p.370) 與何凡無關

關於Motorola
這家分出去的半導體公司的中文名稱真是隨便翻譯
Freescale Semiconductor just wants to be free. Freescale, formerly Motorola's Semiconductor Products Sector, is one of the oldest and most diverse makers of microchips in the world.
【日經BP社報導】 美國飛思卡爾半導體(Freescale Semiconductor)當地時間2009年1月5日,公開了有望使迷你筆記型電腦價格降至200美元以下的參考設計(英文發佈資料)。

*****
現在談一下漢先生
他在去年暑假到美國三處 寫出"未來博物館的趨勢"
他又繼續他的古玩研究 不過我為他說的"辟邪"說法不同意
這些不重要 他最近指出政府內部組織疊床架屋的問題 倒是很值得一記
漢寶德:國家文化總會的任務是什麼

【聯合報╱漢寶德】2009.01.10
前些日子,國家文化總會在馬總統的領導下改組了,結束了前任政府八年的運作方式。這個組織,說起來是民間性質,卻頂著一個「國家」的名義,又有總統做會長,實在使人揣摩不透它的功能何在。 它原是政府在反共抗俄時期,為了對抗中共全面消滅傳統文化的政策而設立的體制外組織,稱為「中華文化復興運動總會」,在台灣推行傳統文化的保存。那時候所 指的文化是指四維八德。在當時,政府大權在握,為什麼不把這麼重要的政策通過政府體制去實施?推想起來,可能是要用總統的地位,強調其重要性,並在社會各 層面普遍推行,類似早年的新生活運動。原希望逐漸形成一種社會運動,然而時過境遷,它的政治與文化的意義都消失了。 總統文化獎 範圍遠超過文化 民進黨上台,為了擺脫其大中國意識而更名,卻改了這樣一個偉大的名號。初聽上去,以為是執掌總統文化大計的組織。後來才知道在陳總統任內,其任務主要是頒授總統文化獎。 國家對文化界的獎勵最高的應該是國家文藝獎。可是行政院設了文化獎,已不知其意義何在,總統又設文化獎,難道是指最高的文化獎嗎?經過仔細了解,原來總統 文化獎對文化的解釋很寬,包括了社會公益、鄉土文化、族群和諧、生態保育等,最後才是文學與藝術。所以每年有五個大獎,其範圍遠超過文化。 我很認同以這樣廣闊的胸懷來看文化。可是為什麼不在行政院設這樣的獎,要具有民間性質的組織來做?我覺得國家文化總會若只是頒獎,應該改名為「總統文化獎委員會」,把組織的任務清楚的表明。 如果頂著今天這種名號,究竟要做些什麼?要認真的思考一番才成。我們要知道在中華文化復興運動總會的階段,政府體系中,尚沒有文建會。文建會的使命中,包 括了生活與行為、社區文化在內,比起狹義的文化,僅只藝術與文化資產,要廣闊得多了。有了文建會,文復會確實無事可做。那麼,這樣一個體制外的組織,確有 重新釐定目標的必要。 文化總會 文化界意見的總匯 想想看,什麼涉及於全民的重要文化事業非總統出面不可,又非民間身份不可?以我看來,國家文化總會的任務只有兩條路:與文建會分工,文建會執掌狹義的文化發展,文化總會負責推動不可能或不容易用公權力執行的,生活與行為的部分,如破除迷信,提倡生活美感,與善良風俗等。 另一條路就是把文化總會經營為文化界意見的總匯,經整理、研究後供總統參考,作為文化施政的依據。馬總統的競選白皮書中不是有總統文化諮議會嗎?這樣做至少可以消除目前文化缺乏政策之批評。 (作者為前世界宗教博物館館長)

***** 觀摹他獎

(我送王治翰回去搭車 他不知道我去年十月已做過劉振先生的紀念會)

For distinguished commentary, Five thousand dollars ($5,000).

Awarded to Maureen Dowd of The New York Times for her fresh and insightful columns on the impact of President Clinton's affair with Monica Lewinsky.

nytimeslogo.jpg


Columbia University Provost Jonathan R. Cole presents Maureen Dowd with the Pulitzer Prize for Commentary.

Finalists

Also nominated as finalists in this category were: Nat Hentoff of The Village Voice, a New York City weekly, for his passionate columns championing free expression and individual rights, and Donald Kaul of The Des Moines Register for his witty columns from Washington on politics and other national issues.

*****

Hunter在書中談1999年訪問Simon 的前三十分中考題 填充題

之後的九十分鐘Simon的說法簡直是倒背如流

Hunter說其自傳是 個案研究集之寫法

Crowther-Heyck, Hunter, 1968-
Herbert A. Simon : the bounds of reason in modern America / Hunter Crowther-Heyck
Baltimore : Johns Hopkins University Press, 2005


開場白:故事、寓言
繼續同其大夢
經過數百年之後 我們的智者到華盛頓的一家庭工作室
有一位老者在讀他同事的論文所引的日本古詩
又讀到這比喻

But while I pondered all these things, and how men fight and lose the battle, and the thing that they fought for comes about in spite of their defeat, and when it comes turns out not to be what they meant, and other men have to fight for what they meant under another name— while I pondered all this, John Ball began to speak again in the same soft and dear voice with which he had left off.
(Project Gutenberg's A Dream of John Ball, A King's Lesson, by William Morris)

*****

這篇的草稿 是2006年美國統計學會的戴明演講

不過這些GE的退休人多少是掛羊頭賣狗肉的

他們打著 WED的招牌 自以為 SIX SIGMA是 WED之後的重要發展

其實是自我陶醉

W. Edwards Deming's Making Another World: A Holistic Approach to Performance Improvement and The Role of Statistics
by: Snee, D Ronald
The American Statistician, Vol. 62, No. 3. (August 2008), pp. 251-255.

*****

綑綁1:企業 羅益強驚魂記
作者:陳一姍  出處:天下雜誌 414期 2009/01
是怎樣的情況,讓曾任跨國企業總裁的羅益強,落到跟人調現金度日的窘境?是怎樣的程序,讓他在完全不知情的狀況下,財產全遭假扣押?是怎樣的法律,可能罰不到該負責的人,卻傷了想做事的人?

****

企業的真理是什

"品質"

可是 公司取名梵文真理 (Satyam)的印度大公司成為大醜聞 Satyam Probe Could Ensnare Others

同樣 取名 Quality的中國公司可能早就下市

****

Quote

"Change will not come if we wait for some other person or some other time. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are the change that we seek."Barack Obama

2009年1月13日 星期二

三頭六臂集 133-42

142

Sheila Bair, the chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, recently tried to describe how this would work: “The aggregator bank would buy the assets at fair value.” But what does “fair value” mean?

In my example, Gothamgroup is insolvent because the alleged $400 billion of toxic waste on its books is actually worth only $200 billion. The only way a government purchase of that toxic waste can make Gotham solvent again is if the government pays much more than private buyers are willing to offer.

Now, maybe private buyers aren’t willing to pay what toxic waste is really worth: “We don’t have really any rational pricing right now for some of these asset categories,” Ms. Bair says. But should the government be in the business of declaring that it knows better than the market what assets are worth? And is it really likely that paying “fair value,” whatever that means, would be enough to make Gotham solvent again?

--Wall Street Voodoo by Pau; Krugman


141

Quote

"Change will not come if we wait for some other person or some other time. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are the change that we seek."Barack Obama


140
As newspaper revenue collapses and television revenue stagnates, every media company is rushing to reformat news for the digital generation. To that end, they are placing expensive bets in the hope of answering two pointed questions: How will news organizations continue to sustain themselves? And what will the digital newsroom of the future look like?

人類對事物的感受(feelings)大抵相同
如何使顧客對你的產品和服務情有所鍾
除了"養成習慣"來光顧之外
如何才能讓人"熱愛"之呢
這是所有事業主的夢想
譬如說
"While traffic to the home page of CNN.com is higher than ever, “my hunch is that people go to it more out of habit than they do out of love,” he says. Love, in fact, is exactly what Mr. Estenson is pursuing."

139

有朋友打電話來問書中的一些話的意思和根據
讓我認識 "法施
" (解說佛法,使聽聞者獲益。大寶積經˙卷十三˙密跡金剛力士會第三之六:「加用法施,救濟危厄。」)

138

對於Deming 和Herbert Simon等那代 他們在兩次世界期間( interwar period )的學風之發展 如非歷史導向的結構和過程之分析等 (ahistorical) 都是相當重要的


137

王晃三夫婦要去 避靜 送一辭

a new lease of life, lease

a new lease on [〈英〉of] life 運よく寿命が延びること; 立直る見込み[こと].


136
"成本" "績效"等等都只是結果 無法"經營"
人生可以經營

舒國治:別檢討缺錢,檢討生活
近來人人在討論缺錢,進而研究節儉。既然沒什麼錢了,便只好少花了。 主要在於以前花錢的習慣太糟了。現下不但要少花錢,更需用心實踐簡樸的生活。


135
這可能只是Nissan被收編之後 車子檢驗的另外說辭

品質評価基準AVES (Alliance Vehicle Evaluation Standard)


134
觀摩此新網站處理年曆
Our new site improves access to a rich storehouse of information on the best in American newspaper journalism and the arts from 1917 to the present. Among the site’s features:
  • A timeline, composed of iconic Pulitzer images, that swiftly connects to winners and finalists through the decades.

133
我一向拙於使用 標點 現在注意到 " = ="用法
值得觀察學習


準大手ゼネコン「西松建設」(東京)の裏金問題に絡んで、同社の子会社の元社長(67)=西松建設の元部長=が、海外で作られた裏金約1億円の国内 への不正な持ち込みに関与していた疑いがあることが関係者の話でわかった。子会社は、西松建設の裏金が使われる際に取引の形などをとって関係先との間に介 在していたとされる。

 東京地検特捜部は14日にも、約1億円を不正に日本に持ち込むよう指示していた疑いが強まった西松建設の元副社長(68)=海外担当=とともに、 この子会社元社長らを外国為替及び外国貿易法(外為法)違反容疑で取り調べる見通し。西松建設が国内外で作ったという20億円を超える裏金の使途解明を目 指す。

 関係者によると、子会社は西松建設100%出資の不動産会社「松栄不動産」(東京)。元社長は、西松建設時代は社長室経営企画部長だった。

 西松建設の元副社長は、香港の銀行口座にプールしていた裏金の管理役だった元海外事業部副事業部長の高原和彦被告(63)=業務上横領罪で起訴= に、裏金のうち約1億円を税関への届け出をせずに持ち込むよう指示。松栄不動産の元社長は、元副部長が数回にわけて日本に持ち込んだ裏金を国内で使う際に 関与した疑いが持たれている。

 西松建設は過去5年間で、国内で10億円以上、海外で約10億円の裏金を作っていたとされる。同社は、これらの裏金を使う際、松栄不動産などの関係会社を取引に介在させていたという。こうした仕組みには、資金の出所をわかりにくくさせる狙いがあったとみられている。

 松栄不動産は朝日新聞の取材に「事件とは一切関係ないので申し上げることはない」としている。

Thanks in QUALITY, PRODUCTIVITY, AND COMPETITIVE POSITION

Thanks in QUALITY, PRODUCTIVITY, AND COMPETITIVE POSITION

"I am thankful for unusual privilege to work as apprentice to a numer of great men, such as Walter A. Shewhart, founder of the statistical control of quality, and with Harold F. Dodge, and with George Edwards, all of the Bell Telephone Laboratories, all noe deceased. Equally valued is apprenticeship under other esteemed colleagues, such as Morris H Hansen, Philip M. Hauser, Frederick Franklin Stephan, General Leslie E. Simon, Eugene L. Grant, Holbrook Working, Franz J. Kaliman, P. C. Mahalanobis.

This book could never have seen print without the dedicated skill and perseverance of my secretary Cecelia S. Kilian. She has assisted me now 28 years in a lively statistical practice, and has constructed out of scribblings on scribblings written on my lap on aeroplanes one version after another of notes to use as text for my seminars, and finally this book as the reader finds it.

Help has come also from many kind friends that have read pages of text in earlier versions, with suggestings for clarity. Notes of thanks appear in the text for specific contributions.

--QUALITY, PRODUCTIVITY, AND COMPETITIVE POSITION by W. Edwards Deming, 1982, p. iv.

Prasanta Chandra Mahalanobis

Prasanta Chandra Mahalanobis:1893年6月29日1972年6月28日印度数理統計学者、開拓統計学理論中的Mahalanobis距離マハラノビス距離 *、推進印度的統計学在社会的応用、設立印度インド統計大学

Wiki 英文詳細資介紹 English

* 吳玉印和田口玄一等在九零年代引入台灣 讀者可讀日文資料如上



在Deming博士的1960大作中可以找到這樣資訊

1. on Page 56:
"... bigger sample, with a smaller standard error, but whose definitions, * I am indebted to my colleague Professor P. C. Mahalanobis, F.R.S., for pointing out this fact to me. ..."
2. on Page 59:
"... sampling units in the frame, to produce almost any desired result? (Yes.) * Private communication to the author, about 1937. Mahalanobis was taking the same steps in Bengal about the same time. ..."
3. on Page 61:
"... Mahalanobis, The National Sample Survey, General Report No. 1, Ministry of Finance, Delhi, December 1952. Reasons for studying all the sources ..."
4. on Page 71:
"... , count, inspection, evaluation, calibration.) Meanwhile, Mahalanobis in India had for years been measuring the errors of sampling, and calibrating the work of observers, by means of ..."
5. on Page 116:
"... as the average in Class A. Let A, B, * Called to my attention in 1946 by Professor P. C. Mahalanobis, F.R.S. ..."
6. on Page 186:
"... Replication originated with Mahalanobis in 1936, and it is a pleasure to express my appreciation for the privilege of studying his methods in India, ..."
7. on Page 251:
"... 1. P. C. Mahalanobis, "Recent experiments in statistical sampling in the Indian Statistical institute," J. Roy. Statist. Soc., Vol. 109, 1946: pp. 325-370. 2. ..."
8. on Page 303:
"... C. Mahalanobis, "On large-scale sample-surveys," Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc., vol. 23IB, 1944: pp. 329-451. See also Hansen, Hurwitz, and Madow, Sample Survey ..."
9. from Index:
"... 309, 424, 425, 431, 445, 449, 450, 473, 481, 483, 485 Lillian MADOW 125 Elbert T. MAGRUDER 331 P. C. MAHALANOBIS 56, 59, 61, 77, 116, 186, 251, 303, 449 Management, report to, 12, 14, 16-22, 109, 117, 162; limits of ..."
10. from Front Matter:
"... estimation of the standard error and of any mathematical bias that exists in the estimator used. The method is essentially Mahalanobis's interpenetrating samples, which he introduced in 1936 in his surveys of Bengal. Acting ..."
1. from Front Matter:
"... by Cochran, and by Sukhatme, plus the works of Mahalanobis, none of which this book will ever displace. And now comes the part of the preface that is a special ..."

Return to book


2009年1月12日 星期一

"Good Thinking, Good Products." 奮鬥一甲子

知情人士稱﹐豐田汽車公司(Toyota Motor Corp.)董事會年長成員已經選擇公司創始人的孫子豐田章男(Akio Toyoda)為下一任總裁。


Reuters
豐田章男
知 情人士稱﹐雖然正式決定可能要等到幾週以後作出﹐豐田汽車年長董事已經告訴豐田章男﹐他被選中接替公司現任總裁渡邊捷昭(Katsuaki Watanabe)的職位。豐田章男是豐田喜一郎(Kiichiro Toyoda)的孫子﹐後者於1937年創立了豐田汽車。豐田章男很可能在6月份豐田汽車年度股東會議召開後正式走馬上任。

知情人士不願具名﹐因上述決定尚未獲得公司股東正式批准。豐田汽車一位發言人表示﹐公司尚未作出有關管理層調整的任何決定。

對 於豐田章男的任命正值豐田汽車處於歷史性轉折點的時刻。上個月﹐該公司預計﹐公司將出現自1938年以來的首次年度營運虧損﹔截至3月31日的財政年度合 併報表後的營運虧損將為1,500億日圓(合24億美元)﹐原因是美國、歐洲、日本和其他主要市場的需求下滑﹐且日圓匯率走強。分析師表示﹐預計公司 2009年的前景依然十分嚴峻。以銷售額衡量﹐豐田汽車是全球最大的汽車生產商。

據瞭解公司的人士稱﹐豐田章男要重振豐田汽車面臨巨大挑戰﹐首先是保守的企業文化。豐田章男認為﹐長期以來以謹慎管理策略聞名的豐田汽車近些年來變得更加保守和官僚化﹐需要通過一種新的組織結構來加速決策過程﹐他認為這是豐田汽車改革的先決條件。

知情人士表示﹐豐田章男可能會努力精簡他認為已經臃腫的管理層。他還可能重新組合公司當前的管理團隊﹐很可能從公司外引進人才﹐包括近些年離開豐田汽車去管理子公司的原管理人士。

豐田汽車通常於每年春初宣佈管理層調整情況﹐並在6月份公司年度股東會議後敲定。

據知情人士稱﹐豐田汽車資深人士在過去幾週中著手物色新一任總裁﹐這在很大程度上是由於現任董事長張富士夫(Fujio Cho)的健康問題。

71 歲的張富士夫由於受到背部疾病的困擾﹐現在難以勝任工作﹐已經計劃辭職﹐從而使66歲的渡邊捷昭成為其繼任者。不過知情人士稱﹐公司資深人士﹐主要是豐田 章男的父親、83歲的豐田章一郎(Shoichiro Toyoda)和75歲的奧田碩(Hiroshi Okuda)﹐認為張富士夫徹底離開豐田汽車給公司造成的變化過大﹐他們要求張富士夫繼續擔任董事長一職。

渡邊捷昭則很可能在豐田章男繼任公司總裁後擔任副總裁。

不過﹐為減輕張富士夫的工作負擔﹐渡邊捷昭將接替他擔任日本經濟團體聯合會(Keidanren)副會長﹔該聯合會是日本影響力最大的商業協會組織﹐副會長一職近些年均由豐田汽車高級管理人士擔任。

Norihiko Shirouzu


豐田“回歸原點做事”——在日本汽車工業團體聯歡會上採訪豐田社長
DATE 2009/01/08

【日經BP社報導】

圖1:由4家汽車工業團體舉辦的新春賀詞聯歡會
圖2:被記者包圍的豐田汽車社長渡邊捷昭
日本汽車工業會等4家汽車工業團體于2009年1月5日,在東京一家酒店舉辦了新春賀詞聯歡會。筆者就汽車產業的現狀及將來、對北美市場的應對措施以及今後的策略等,採訪了出席聯歡會的豐田汽車社長渡邊捷昭。

Q:您怎麼看汽車產業的現狀及未來?

  全球經濟的形勢以過去未曾見過的程度,發生了迅速而廣泛的變化。包括發達國家及新興市場國家在內,目前市場需求均下降。但我認為全球汽車需求從中長期來看將會增長。目前,還沒有降到谷底。希望能夠早日出現見底回升的跡象。

Q:日本汽車工業會預計2009年日本國內汽車總需求(乘用車、貨車、公共汽車、輕型車)為486萬輛(2008年為508萬輛),日本市場上的豐田車總需求預計為多少?

  我認為(包括大發、日野汽車在內)將達到300萬輛多一點的規模。情況相當嚴峻。希望政府採取重振個人消費的措施。

Q:您怎樣看北美市場今後的發展?

  雖然自去年9月金融危機以來持續低迷,但對於今後,要在看到2008財年四季度(2009年1~3月)的業績之後,再考慮如何應對。期望在歐巴馬政府 的經濟政策影響下,2009年下半年汽車銷售出現增長勢頭。但我認為即使增長也將是緩慢地增長。本地化生產方面,在有需求的地方進行生產的一貫方針不會改 變。

Q:請問今後的策略?

  我們已經採取了緊急對策。現在是考慮中長期計劃的好時機。從根本上說,我們要回歸原點做事。憑藉“智慧與改進”、“客戶第一”、“當地現貨”的豐田理念制定相應對策。(特約撰稿人:桃田健史)

ビジネス | 企業・業界動向 ライン

トヨタ車体組織改正、品質向上活動を定常的取り組みに



トヨタ車体で作られるヴェルファイア(向かって左)とアルファード

トヨタ車体は、1日付で組織変更を実施した。今回の組織変更では、2年間の時限組織として取り組んだ品質向上活動を今後は定常活動として推進するため、「BR-QAネットワーク推進室」を廃止する。

また、社内監査組織の独立性を確保するため、経営企画部から「監査室」を分離、独立する。
 
生産・安全衛生部門では、従業員の健康づくりとメンタルケア業務の充実を図るため、安全衛生部の「健康管理室」を「健康推進センター」として分離・独立させた。

《編集部》




你現在還可以看到 Toyota工廠的這一醒目的"標語"
p.269





"Good Thinking, Good Products."
The original banner, in Japanese, hanging in a
plant in Japan
"Good Thinking, Good Products." The original banner, in Japanese, hanging in a plant in Japan


在轉危為安 Out of the Crisis 一書中
起碼有兩大段在說明 Ford 和 G.M. 兩公司的物流和庫存成本的改善
不過請比較TOYOTA 所採取的更徹底的零浪費做法 (奮鬥一甲子)




TOYOTA TRADITIONS

Eiji Toyoda Eiji Toyoda, Managing Director of TMC, 1950-1981
“Good Thinking, Good Products”
"The Spirit of Being Studious and Creative" has been deeply embedded in the Toyota Way in all areas of operations ever since the concept was very first introduced by Sakichi Toyoda, the founder of Toyoda Automatic Loom Works, Ltd. It is the fundamental concept behind "Good Thinking, Good Products," the slogan adorning Toyota factories around the globe which was born from the Toyota Creative Ideas and Suggestions System (TCISS), and which encourages employees to suggest improvements at work.

The system was introduced by Managing Director Eiji Toyoda when it became clear during the post Second World War economic recovery that Toyota's production facilities needed to be modernized. Toyoda took the idea from a Ford Motor Company plant which he had visited in July 1950. A suggestion system employed by Ford placed emphasis on supporting its improvement activities through opinions not only from the factory, but also from the management side.

Based on this system, Toyota sought, not simply to copy, but to improve the system in line with the Toyota Way and established the TCISS in May 1951. Although the TCISS offered incentives to employees, the real value of the system was that it provided motivation to employees by focusing on their skills and creativity. The TCISS systemized the practices that had been customary since the time of Toyota Motor Corporation founder Kiichiro Toyoda: respecting opinions from production and sales and conducting spontaneous on-site inspections while simultaneously inviting suggestions for improvements. With this development in mind and to inspire employee participation, a company slogan, "Good Thinking, Good Products" was picked at an in-house contest in 1953, and is still used to this day.


"Good Thinking, Good Products." The original banner, in Japanese, hanging in a plant in Japan

"Good Thinking, Good Products."
The original banner, in Japanese, hanging in a plant in Japan
As the years passed, the TCISS became steadily more productive. Teams were formed to create ideas for improvements, and the suggestions themselves became more substantial as all employees were encouraged to review their jobs constantly and implement improvements.

This Kaizen Spirit has continued to develop much further over the years and is deeply embedded in Toyota's culture, not only in production but also in sales operations around the globe.


The first winners of the Toyota Creative Ideas and Suggestions System and the committee chairman, Shoichi Saito (center)

The first winners of the Toyota Creative Ideas and Suggestions System and the committee chairman, Shoichi Saito (center)


Employees at the suggestion box

Employees at the suggestion b

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