L.H.C. Tippett, The Lady Tasting Tea

L.H.C. Tippett 是 Deming 引用多次的統計學家

在OOTC 中 引的是工作抽查

Quoted from the publisher :

At a summer tea party in Cambridge, England, a lady states that tea poured into milk tastes differently than that of milk poured into tea. Her notion is shouted down by the scientific minds of the group. But one guest, by the name Ronald Aylmer Fisher, proposes to scientifically test the lady's hypothesis. There was no better person to conduct such a test, for Fisher had brought to the field of statistics an emphasis on controlling the methods for obtaining data and the importance of interpretation. He knew that how the data was gathered and applied was as important as the data themselves.

書名： 統計，改變了世界(The Lady Tasting Tea: How Statistics Revolutionized Science in the Twentieth Century)
作者： 薩爾斯伯格(David Salsburg)
譯者： 葉偉文
出版商： 天下遠見
出版時間： 2001/11/20初版
閱讀本書所需數學知識的難易程度： ☆☆
書介：	百年難得一見的洪水有辦法預測嗎？通常我們要做預測，必須先蒐集足夠數據，根據數據建立模型，再利用模型來做預測。但是百年一見的洪水，許多人一輩子都碰不到，這樣罕見的洪水，要如何用統計模型來分析、估計它會淹多高呢？有位逖皮特先生找到了答案。 　 　逖皮特先生於一九零二年出生於倫敦，一九二三年畢業於帝國學院，研讀的是物理。畢業後任職於英國棉花工業研究協會，擔任統計師。該協會的主要任務，是利 用當代的統計方法，來改良棉線與衣料的製造。其中最困擾的問題，與新紡棉線的強度有關。拉斷一束棉線所需的張力，往往相去甚遠。逖皮特做了一些仔細的實 驗，發現棉線的斷裂取決於裡面最脆弱的纖維。為了解決這個問題，他找到了一個簡單的方程式，可以把抽樣數據的分布與極值分布的關係連起來。什麼是極值呢？ 最脆弱纖維的強度是極值，百年洪水的洪峰高度也是。知道了一般數據分布和極值分布之間的關係，就可以紀錄每年河水的洪峰高度，以此來預測大洪水最可能的洪 峰高度了。 　　這個故事告訴了我們，可以預測百年洪水的方法，當初是如何發展出來的。本書就是在介紹許多統計模型的誕生，以及討論這些模型在實際生活中有什麼意義等等，探討的過程中，也介紹了相關統計學家的生平事蹟。 Leonard Henry Caleb Tippett (1902 - 1985), physicist and statistician, born in London. Tippett graduated in physics in the early 1920s at Imperial College. He studied for his MSc in statistics under Professor Karl Pearson at the Galton Laboratory, University College London and R. A. Fisher at Rothamsted. He spent his entire career, 1925 to 1965, on the staff of the Shirley Institute, Manchester becoming in 1952 one of the first Assistant Directors. Pioneered with R.A. Fisher and Emil Gumbel the extreme value theory. The Fisher-Tippett distribution is named after his achievements. At the Shirley Institute he applied statistics to the problem of yarn breakage rates in weaving. In the late 1920s and 1930s he became known for his 'snap-reading' method of observation which lead to improved production efficiency and operative utilization. As a result of his work in the textile industry he was awarded the Shewart Medal of the American Society for Quality Control. In 1965 he retired to St. Austell and in this period became an UNIDO consultant being active in India He died in 1985 after being hit by a van whilst walking from his home to the St. Austell Choral Society to sing in the St. Matthew Passion. Awards Warner Medal of the Textile Institute Guy Medal in Silver of the Royal Statistical Society Honorary MSc UMIST President of the Manchester Statistical Society President of the Royal Statistical Society, 1965 Books Random Sampling Numbers, CUP, London, 1927 Methods of Statistics, Williams & Norgate Ltd., London, 1931, 1948, 1952 Statistical Methods for Textile Technologists, by T. Murphy, K. P. Norris, L. H. C. Tippett, Textile Institute, Manchester, 1960, 1963, 1973, 1979 A Portrait of the Lancashire Textile Industry, OUP, London 1969 References H. E. Daniels, A Tribute to L.H.C. Tippett, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General), Vol. 145, No. 2 (1986), pp. 261-262. J. E. Ford, L.H.C. Tippett, 1902-1985, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General), Vol. 149, No. 1 (1986), p. 44. (obituary) This entry is from Wikipedia, the leading user-contributed encyclopedia. It may not have been reviewed by professional editors (see full disclaimer) Return to book 1. on Page 53: "... L. H. C. Tippett found a solution. Leonard Henry Caleb Tippett was born in 1902 in London and studied physics there at Imperial College, ..." 2. on Page 54: "... I found it better to improve the sampling technique [here he refers to statistical distributions] than to discard the theory." Tippett realized that the theory he so loved provided information only about parameters and not about individual observations. ..." 3. on Page 55: "... into the trash bin of forgotten ideas. For all the excitement of Pearson's laboratory, and for all the mathematical knowledge Tippett developed while there, ..." 4. on Page 56: "... a large collection of equations and their solutions, which could be found in massive compendiums. Nowhere in these compendiums could Tippett find his equation. ..." 5. on Page 205: "... H. C. Tippett's first asymptote of the extreme that is used to predict "hundred-year floods," as described in chapter 6. A version of ..." 6. from Back Matter: "... C. Tippett, R. A. Fisher 1928 "Studies in Crop Variation. VI" R. A. Fisher 1930 First issue of the Annals of Mathematical ..." 7. from Index: "... 27 and Karl Pearson, 18 and Tippett, 54-55 Biometrics, 162, 215 Biometrika: Bayesian statistics in, 129-130 David Cox as editor of, 245 Egon Pearson as editor of, ..." 8. from Index: "... War 11, 259 distribution-free statistics, see nonparametric tests distribution of extremes: Gumbel's work in, 56-59 Nancy Mann's work in, 205 Tippett's work in, 54-56 diuretics, ..." 9. from Index: "... 234-236 takes over Biometrical Laboratory, 18 Tippett's description of, 54-55 work on time series, 146 writes "On Jewish-Gentile Relationships," 21 Pearson's chi square test, 96-98, 108 permutation ..." 10. from Index: "... Island atomic power plant, 135 time series: first investigated by Fisher, 44 Kolmogorov's work on stochastic processes, 139, 144-145, 214 Tippett, L. ..."

1.	on Page 114:
	"... showing that Neyman's frequentist interpretation was inappropriate to what is actually done. In the 1980s, W. Edwards Deming attacked the entire idea of hypothesis testing as nonsensical. ..."
2.	on Page 248:
	"... the "American way" to educate the country. His staff located the name of W. Edwards Deming as an expert ..."
3.	on Page 249:
	"... Deming shocked his listeners by telling them they could change that around within five years. He told them that, with the ..."
4.	on Page 250:
	"... and purely by chance some workers would get 13 to 15 red beads, clearly the result of very poor work. Deming's point was that, all too often, ..."
5.	on Page 251:
	"... THE MAN WHO REMADE INDUSTRY 251 defect." They would have no defects in their product -a condition that Deming knew was completely impossible. ..."
6.	on Page 252:
	"... Deming's major point about quality control is that the output of a production line is variable. It has to be variable, ..."
7.	on Page 253:
	"... THE MAN WHO REMADE INDUSTRY 253 The end result of Deming's approach was Japanese cars that ran for 100,000 miles or more without major repairs, ships that needed minimum maintenance, ..."
8.	on Page 254:
	"... 254 THE LADY TASTING TEA failing to see what, to Deming, was obvious. This stern-faced critic whom I met was not the Deming that his friends knew. I saw his public ..."
9.	on Page 255:
	"... MAN WHO REMADE INDUSTRY 255 5 percent or less of the time a defective product would get through quality control. Deming was later to dismiss this version of quality control as a guarantee ..."
10.	on Page 256:
	"... found that is important. Furthermore, Deming pointed out, the degree of difference found in one ..."

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11.	on Page 279:
	"... In spite of the acrimonious dispute between Fisher and Neyman, in spite of the insistence of statisticians like W. Edwards Deming that hypothesis tests were useless, in spite of the rise of Bayesian statistics, ..."
12.	on Page 281:
	"... INTENT TO TREAT 281 lowed by examination and reexamination of data has no end- there is no final scientific truth. DEMING'S VIEW Deming and many other statisticians have ..."
13.	from Back Matter:
	"... but shows an understanding of his motives and ideas. DEMING, W. EDWARDS. 1982. Out of the Crisis. Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Advanced Engineering Study. ..."
14.	from Back Matter:
	"... of statistical methodology in the face of communist orthodoxy. MANN, NANCY R. 1987. The Keys to Excellence-The Story of the Deming Philosophy. Los Angeles, CA: Preswick Books. ..."
15.	from Back Matter:
	"... BIBLIOGRAPHY 319 friends. This is her explanation of Deming's work and methods for the nonmathematician. PEARSON, KARL. 1911. The Grammar of Science. Meridian Library, NY: Meridian Library Edition (1957). ..."
16.	from Back Matter:
	"... 1987. Harald Cramér, 1893-1985. Annals of Statistics 15:1335. BOARDMAN, THOMAS J. 1994. The statistician who changed the world: W. Edwards Deming, 1900-1993. ..."
17.	from Back Matter:
	"... A conversation with Erich L. Lehmann. Statistical Science 1:243. . 1986. A conversation with Persi Diaconis. Statistical Science 1:319. DEMING, W. EDWARDS. 1972. P. C. Mahalanobis (1893-1972). ..."
18.	from Back Matter:
	"... WILLIAM EDWARDS DEMING. 1900-1993. 1994. Alexandria, VA: American Statistical Association. [A pamphlet prepared in support of the W. Edwards Deming Fund] ZABELL, SANDY. ..."
19.	from Back Matter:
	"... Chaos-theory and experiment. Reading, MA: Perseus Books. DAMS, PHILIP I. 1980. Are there coincidences in mathematics? American Mathematical Monthly 88:311. DEMING, W. EDWARDS. 1974. ..."
20.	from Index:
	"... covariance: Cochran's observational studies, 281-283 proposed by Fisher, 48-49 analysis of variance: in Box's formulation of scientific research, 280 in Deming's version of quality control, ..."

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