「華人戴明學院」是戴明哲學的學習共同體 ,致力於淵博型智識系統的研究、推廣和運用。 The purpose of this blog is to advance the ideas and ideals of W. Edwards Deming.

2013年2月28日 星期四

2013 W. Edwards Deming Award (Graduate School USA)


此獎應該是原美國農業部的研究所的獎項

Honoring excellence in workforce development, training

rubber stamp
Do you work in an agency that has been particularly successful in workforce development and training initiatives? Now is your chance to nominate it for the 2013 W. Edwards Deming Award, which celebrates excellence in government training.
Graduate School USA’s annual W. Edwards Deming Award recognizes federal organizations that have demonstrated “transformative training excellence” and those who have pursued training and development that had a significant impact on agency performance.
Previous winners shared why winning the Deming Award has been a big deal to them. Stephen Cricchi, director of integrated systems evaluation, experimentation and test department at the Naval Air Systems Command, said the award served as a stamp of approval.
“It validated our training efforts on a grander scale outside our own Navy perspective and enabled us to gain recognition within the DOD,” he said.
For the Office of Appellate Operations at the Social Security Administration, winning the Deming Award shone a light on its transformative training within the SSA and other agencies, said Patricia Jones, executive director at the office.
“We are currently working with the Canadian government’s Pension Plan Disability Program, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and the North Carolina Department of Revenue,” she said. “Without the recognition received from the Deming Award, we wouldn’t have been this extensive in our reach.”
Nomination forms and other information can be found on the Graduate School USA website (Click here.) The submission deadline is March 25, 2013, 5 p.m. Eastern.
Posted by Camille Tuutti on Feb 28, 2013 at 3:34 PM

2013年2月26日 星期二

Zeger Degraeve的商學院改造./ 戰略不應忽略歷史

 注意 這篇沒有談到Dr. Deming認為商學院應該教的.


打造世界一流的商學院英國《金融時報》 德拉•布拉德肖報導
塞格爾•德格拉夫(Zeger Degraeve)沒有虛度光陰。一年多前,這位說話溫和的比利時人離開歐洲,前往澳大利亞擔任墨爾本商學院(Melbourne Business School)院長,但在這段時間裡,他無疑證明了自己決策大師的名頭。他修訂了MBA和EMBA課程,​​把商學院教師人數增加了20%,解決了曾導致墨爾本大學(University of Melbourne)無法與墨爾本商學院合併的長期治理衝突。德格拉夫計劃為澳大利亞打造一所享有國際聲譽的商學院,上述舉措都是該計劃中的一部分。他首先需要說服的是墨爾本商學院的董事會,其中55%的投票權掌握在澳大利亞企業手中。由於墨爾本大學掌握著舉足輕重的投票權,這位新任院長不得不把雙方聯合起來。他表示:“內部競爭沒有任何意義。我們要面向全球競爭。”墨爾本商學院最初打算與墨爾本大學合併,但由於墨爾本商學院的董事們擔心,商學院會被規模更大的墨爾本大學吞併,合併計劃於2009年9月告吹。即便到了現在,墨爾本商學院也只有42名教授和教師,而墨爾本大學經濟與商業學院的教師人數是它的4倍多。但隨著墨爾本商學院和墨爾本大學經濟與商業學院均任命了新的院長,兩院合併再無障礙。對德格拉夫教授而言,合併協議是其個人的勝利。他被任命為經濟與商業學院和商學院的聯合院長。商學院將頒發所有的研究生商學學位,比如金融學碩士和管理課程碩士。這就意味著以企業管理課程聞名的墨爾本商學院將能夠重新平衡其收入,從而讓學位教學的收入比重從30-40%上升到50%。墨爾本商學院將多數投票權留在企業、而不是學院手中也有其優點。德格拉夫表示:“這保證了我們可以獨立行事。”就課程、治理和品牌等合併細節問題,11個工作組仍在製定之中。每個工作組由墨爾本大學和墨爾本商學院的5-6名教師組成。其中一個問題是,墨爾本商學院如何加強與墨爾本大學的科學學院、工程學院以及醫學院的緊密合作。墨爾本商學院可能設立雙學位。德格拉夫表示:“一切均有待審核。”2012年8月,第一批68名學員開始攻讀經過修訂後的MBA課程,​​目前課程學制僅有12個月。儘管德格拉夫教授此前曾在倫敦商學院(London Business School)執教12年——該學院的兩年制MBA課程可以說是歐洲最受尊敬的——但他仍堅稱,12個月就可以上完所有課程。“我們盡可能地利用課程時間。我們設置了密集的課程,學生要全天上課。這種做法奏效的關鍵是要有一種有效的教學經歷。”這意味著,一天當中要交叉各種教學方法​​——講課、小組活動以及人際關係技能培訓。學生可以選擇實習,也可以參加海外商學院的交換項目以及在上海的諮詢項目。德格拉夫的信念打動了市場,墨爾本商學院的國內申請人數增長了300%。參加該項目的女性比例上升至40%。德格拉夫未來12個月有什麼打算?他說:“我想要踐行最初的想法。”即在澳大利亞打造一所享譽全球的商學院。他補充稱,過去我們沒有緊迫感,但我們現在認識到,這不僅僅關係到商學院領域。 “而且還關係到澳大利亞在全世界的地位。”譯者/倪衛國



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 企業戰略不應忽略歷史英國《金融時報》專欄作家安德魯•希爾

每個公司都曾有過一個這樣的人:這個討厭鬼在戰略討論會上的慣常貢獻是緩緩地深吸一口氣,搖一下腦袋,對公司的最新計劃做出悲觀的論斷,“我們在二十世紀八十年代就做過類似嘗試,結果是徹頭徹尾的災難。”
我說“曾經有”,是因為現在具有這種視野的員工越來越少。而有此見識的員工在把自己的觀點表達出來時也需要很大勇氣。絕大多數高管都覺得,避免被更加年輕機敏的競爭者超越的唯一辦法是,拋開過去的歷史包袱,加速改變公司面貌。如果你想了解什麼是“組織記憶”,或許你該讀讀有關“組織慣性”的資料。
但這些快速向前的前進主義者們只對了一半。公司戰略是一門關於選擇前方正確道路的藝術。而完全摒棄歷史的企業不僅可能重犯過去的錯誤,還有可能阻礙自身未來的發展。
歷史及檔案顧問約翰•西曼(John Seaman)和喬治•大衛•史密斯(George David Smith)近期在《哈佛商業評論》(Harvard Business Review)中寫道:“挑戰在於,在組織的發展歷程中找出具有借鑒價值的過往經驗。”
企業必須從自身發展歷程中學習以下四大教訓:
第一點是,借鑒歷史,但要準備好捨棄不符合企業當前發展目標的那一部分。
瑞典銀行Handelsbanken在地下室中保存了過往140年的董事會會議紀要,這與其他貌似患有慢性短期記憶喪失症的同業對手形成了鮮明對比。 Handelsbanken的首席執行官對英國《金融時報》表示,該行還利用這些檔案教導年輕的經理們他們警惕週期性風險。但若Handelsbanken仍然按照19世紀晚期的商業模式運營,則將缺乏競爭力。同理,如果於近期迎來成立125週年紀念日的英國《金融時報》仍然按照1888年的紙媒模式運作,則將難以滿足讀者需求。
英格蘭及威爾士特許會計師協會(ICAEW)是一個面向特許會計師的專業會員組織,其於不久前重新出版了50年前時任殼牌(Shell)副總會計師的斯坦利•哈丁(Stanley Harding)為該協會所做的講座內容。哈丁有關財務經理在企業戰略中所扮演的角色、關鍵績效指標(KPI,他稱為“標尺”)的運用以及成本控制的重要性等問題的看法摩登得令人吃驚。可以把這看做是一個提醒——殼牌現任首席財務官西蒙•亨利(Simon Henry)表示:“雖然我們傾向於認為自己所做的一切都是與眾不同的,自己是最先想出某種辦法的人,但實際情況常常並非如此。”但講座內容同樣顯示,殼牌對於阻礙自身前進的部分歷史選擇了有益的揚棄態度。哈丁從企業運營的角度指出,“沒有什麼東西是神聖的”,這種觀點回擊了“企業在經營中不時會遇到的保守做派——一種對於人們已經習慣了的老式方法的懷舊情緒”。
第二點是,時代和人會變,但傳統將延續。
中歐國際工商學院(CEIBS)的管理學教授喬治•伊普(George Yip)表示,漫長的發展歷程“將使企業更加自信,並使員工之間的內部鬥爭較少,激勵員工更加投入工作”。但經理人若想把積極向上的公司傳統延續下去,就必須在公司過往成就的基礎上不斷銳意革新。伊普與人合著有《戰略轉型》(Strategic Transformation)一書。
第三點是,不斷從過往歷程中挖掘能夠引導公司前進的“微弱信號”。
資深經理人唐•楊(Don Young)在自己的新書《企業規則》(Enterprise Rules)中寫道,“從歷史中學習,要求具備從不同類型的數據中歸納並總結規律的能力”。他指出:“在這方面能力薄弱的人無法從過往歷史中得到收穫,因而也永遠不會成為優秀的策略家,並且在復雜的環境下很難成為一個勝任的領導者。”《企業規則》一書是關於公司如何重新發掘基本價值觀。
用現代的眼光來看,歷史可以和未來一樣充滿活力。即便是公司內部的討厭鬼有關被遺忘的失敗教訓的枯燥陳述,都可能包含著潛在的致勝因子——當年的失敗不過是因為超前於時代而已。基於視頻或音頻流媒體技術的網站在2000年紛紛倒閉,但隨著速度更快的寬帶技術以及永遠在線的移動終端賦予了傳統廣告以及訂閱模式新的生命力,這類網站又重新復蘇。
最後一點是,小心不要將懷舊情緒與註重目標的傳統混為一談。
很多公司都認為,企業歷史不過是舉辦週年慶祝活動的一個藉口,或是挖掘出和已然作古的創始人一樣毫無生氣的企業價值的來源,寫有企業價值的標語常常展示在創始人畫像的下方。任何機構如果過於留戀過往榮耀,而沒有反思過往成就與公司現狀的關係,最終都將使自己成為歷史。
譯者/馬拉

 

2013年2月24日 星期日

獎勵制的片面/表面之強調常會扭曲經理人的方向和表現


這一報告的"基本道理"是可應用在許多制度上的問題的:
獎勵制的片面/表面之強調常會扭曲經理人的方向和表現




報告:增加環保投入不利中國官員升遷 In China, Being Green Can Be Bad for Your Career


報告:增加環保投入不利中國官員升遷

國領導人熱衷於談論他們解決污染問題的決心。新領導人習近平去年11月勾勒他自己的“中國夢”時曾明確提出要創造“更優美的環境”。

那麼中國的空氣和水的質量為什麼這麼差呢

一組經濟學家說﹐很大的原因在於﹐為減少污染而大力投入的地方官員到頭來反倒減少了自己獲得升遷的機會﹐而大手筆投資公路和其他交通基礎設施(雖有可能破壞環境﹐但它們提高了GDP)的官員卻更有可能獲得升遷。

清華大學的吳靜、阿爾伯塔大學(University of Alberta)的莫克(Randall Morck)、上海財經大學的黃俊以及新加坡國立大學(National University of Singapore)的鄧永恒、楊賢寫道﹐市政府用於改善環境的支出﹐與該市的書記和市長獲得提拔的概率之間﹐反倒存在明顯的負相關。對中國的政界人士來說﹐搞環保是件孤獨的事。

五位經濟學家比較了2000年到2009年環境支出和交通設施支出的政治結果。他們說﹐更高的交通設施支出帶來更高的GDP──更高的GDP增長帶來政治升遷﹔而更高的環境投入並不一定帶來GDP的增加﹐從職業角度講﹐這屬於失敗之舉。

這 樣的政治結果可能也是官員不願增加綠色項目投入的原因。用於改善環境的投入在城鎮基礎設施投入的比重從2000年的25.4%下降到2006年的 19.1%﹐然後在2009年有所上升﹐達到21.3%。與此同時﹐包括道路橋梁在內的城鎮交通設施投入佔城鎮基礎設施投入總額的比重﹐從2000年的 60.2%上升到2009年的72.7%。

儘管如此﹐報告作者認為﹐某種最低限度的環境支出是獲得升遷的必要條件﹐因為這類支出被認為是“維穩”的必要之舉。地方官員可不希望自己的履歷上出現因為污染問題而爆發群體性事件的記錄。

Bob Davis

 In China, Being Green Can Be Bad for Your Career
 China's leaders love to talk about their commitment to cleaning up pollution. When China's new leader Xi Jinping sketched out his version of the 'Chinese dream' in November, he made sure to include 'a better environment.'

So why are air and water quality in China so lousy?

A big reason, says one group of economists, is that local officials who spend heavily to reduce pollution instead end up reducing their chances for promotion. Those, on the other hand, who spend big on highways and other transportation infrastructure, which may damage the environment but boost GDP, are more likely to get ahead.

'A city government's spending on environmental improvements is actually significantly negatively related to the odds of its (Communist Party) secretary and mayor being promoted,' write Jing Wu of Tsinghua University, Randall Morck of the University of Alberta and Yongheng Deng, Jun Huang and Bernard Yeung of the National University of Singapore ( pdf). For a Chinese politician, it's lonely being green.

The economists compared the political outcomes of spending on the environment and spending on transportation infrastructure between 2000 and 2009. Higher transportation infrastructure turned into higher GDP -- and higher GDP growth brings promotions, they say. Higher environmental investment didn't lead to the necessary jump in GDP. Career-wise, that's a loser.

The political outcome also probably reflects a reticence to spend more on green projects. Investment in environmental improvements, as a percentage of total urban infrastructure investment, dropped from 25.4% in 2000 to a low of 19.1% in 2006, before increasing a somewhat to 21.3% in 2009. Meanwhile, investment in urban transportation infrastructure, including roads and bridges, jumped from 60.2% of total urban infrastructure investment in 2000 to 72.7% in 2009.

Still, there is some minimum level of environmental spending that's necessary for career advancement, the authors argue, because such spending is seen as necessary to preserve 'social stability.' Massive protests over pollution are not the sort of thing a local official wants on his resume.

Bob Davis

2013年2月20日 星期三

GLOBAL labour productivity /中國生產率,分省GDP 統計之困局, PM2.5與高房價

 

Labour productivity

GLOBAL labour productivity growth is sluggish. The latest data from the Conference Board, a business-research firm, show productivity growth (measured by GDP per employed person) fell to 1.8% in 2012 from 2.3% in 2011. The global financial crisis had a big impact. In China average productivity growth fell from 12% a year between 2003 and 2007, to less than 9% between 2008 and 2012. Although growth is still strong, China's GDP per worker is only 17% of America's.
Some countries however, saw improvements in productivity last year. Such gains, though, can be a reflection of a faltering economy, in which fewer people are doing the work. In Spain, for instance, productivity has improved since 2007 but both GDP and employment have fallen (by 4.2% and 13.7%, respectively). Moreover, countries like Germany, which successfully limited job losses during the recession, report stagnant productivity. Output per person is also subject to the business cycle: when an economy starts to recover, firms often work their employees harder rather than hire new workers. This initially boosts productivity, but as firms take on more workers, productivity growth will fall.

PM2.5與高房價
上海交通大學高級金融學院副院長朱寧為英國《金融時報》中文網撰文
不久前北京上演的“十面霾伏”,又一次把環保問題的嚴重性推到了風口浪尖上。一時間,國外媒體再一次對中國的環境問題進行了集中的大報導,並對中國經濟的增長模式和可持續性提出了更多的討論。反觀國內,從國務院和地方政府,到媒體和民眾,都也對環境問題發出了“忍無可忍”的聲音。過去幾年,許多老百姓開始組織自主進行空氣質量監測,監測的結果是空氣淨化器的熱銷乃至脫銷。為了能喘上放心氣、喝上放心水、吃上放心菜,越來越多的大城市居民選擇遷居到城鎮郊區生活。與此同時,根據環保部門統計,過去十年中國全國大中城市的空氣質量持續提高,越來越多的城市環境質量達標甚至良好。老百姓的切身感受和官方統計數字為什麼會有這麼大的差異?一個主要原因是源於統計口徑。中國對空氣質量關注與PM10顆粒(可吸入顆粒物),和國際通用的PM2.5顆粒(可吸入肺顆粒物)的標準不同。體積較大的顆粒物的減少固然可喜,但看來對體積更小的污染物的忽視直接導致了居民切身感受到的環境質量非但沒有改善,而且有惡化的危險。統計數據和親身感受的嚴重背離,引發作者想到另一個有“異曲同工”之妙的問題:全國的房價。國內廣泛使用的房地產指數是中國指數研究院編制的中國百城房地產指數。根據中國指數研究院的網站,中國百城房地產指數的房價樣本範圍,包括各城市所有在售商品房項目(新房)。這一曾在成熟國家被廣泛被採納的編制方法,在過去一段受到了國外學界的廣泛質疑。在國內高速變革的經濟環境下和城市化快速推動的進程中,國內房地產指數編制中的樣本選擇偏差,尤其值得關注。以北京市的房價為例。北京在城市規劃上有從城中心到郊縣的“環”式規劃,從八十年代的二環路,現在已經修到了近郊區縣的六環路。伴隨著城市規模的不斷擴大,新開工的房地產項目的選址也自然越來越遠。在21世紀之初還算偏遠的亞運村,望京,亦莊等地,現在已經成為炙手可熱的核心地區了。與此同時,在十多年前的新開工項目中佔很高比例的三環內的項目,現在已經是鳳毛麟角了。如果只是簡單採用新竣工項目的均價來編制房地產指數,就會不可避免地忽略一個重要事實:目前新竣工項目的地理組成已經大大不同於十年前竣工項目的地理組成了。由於新竣工項目越來越遠,而級差地租有導致了核心地區的房價永遠會(遠遠)高於周邊地區。上述統計樣本上的偏差會直接導致目前的房地產價格指數的編制低估了,甚至大大低估了房價在過去十多年間的漲幅。用虛擬數據舉個簡單的例子。 2000年北京三環內新房房價平均為5000元/平米,三環環至五環之間平均為3000元/平米,五環之外之間房價平均為1000元/平米。到了2012年,三環內新房房價為20000元/平米,三環到五環之間平均為30000元/平米,五環之外的房價平均為10000元/平米。假設新房分佈的地域不變,三環之內佔百分之五十,三環到五環之間佔百分之四十,五環之外佔百分之十,那麼2000年北京的平均房價是3800元/平米(5000×0.5+3000×0.4+1000×0.1),2012年北京的房價是38000元/平米(50000×0.5+30000×0.4+10000×0.1)。十二年間,房價上漲了900%。然而現實是,到了2012年,新房的地域分佈發生了重大的變化。 2012年五環外的新房佔據了新房總量的百分之五十,三環到五環之間佔據了百分之四十,三環之內只佔百分之十。按照這種地域分佈,也就是國內房地產指數的計算方法,2012年的北京房價就是22000元/平米(50000×0.1+30​​000×0.4+10000×0.5),幾乎只是前一種方法的一半左右。按照這種方法,十二年間,房價僅上漲了340%。由此可見,國內房地產指數因為忽略了樣本在時間序列上的重大變化,統計出來的中國百城房地產指數,嚴重地低估了房地產市場價格的上漲幅度。值得指出的是,即使是國內的二手房指數,也面臨類似的問題。同樣根據中國指數研究院的網站。二手房指數的樣本選取,是基於“當地主要城區成交較為活躍的代表性樓盤”。隨著新開工項目和城市人口居住地越來越向周邊推進,二手房指數的樣本選取偏差也越來越大,數據的準確性也越來越差,由此引發的政策誤導性越來越強。這種測量方法上的偏差,從方法論上講是缺乏科學性的,從政策意義上來講是會帶有很大的誤導效應的。這也可以解釋為什麼城鎮居民對房價高企的怨聲,遠遠超過了官方統計數據可以解釋的範圍,為什麼中國的房地產痛苦指數大大超過發達國家甚至主要發展中國家,並且一時看不到調整的跡象和動力。過去兩年的房地產調控過程中,不乏聽到地方政府限制某些高價樓盤銷售,以保證房地產價格指數不會上升的做法。且不論這種做法背後的政治經濟考慮,單是這種做法本身,就暴露了以新房銷售價格和規模編制房地產指數方法在中國目前特定的經濟發展階段和房地產調控政策下的局限性。綜觀國際房地產經濟的研究,越來越多的學者認同採用同等房屋重複銷售的方法,也就是通過記錄和統計二手房價格連續變化的方式,來更準確地反映房地產市場的變動。作者在耶魯大學的導師羅伯特席勒教授根據房地產市場重複銷售方法的跟踪美國房地產市場的CaseShiller房地產指數,更是在2007-2008美國房地產危機後,成為發達經濟裡得到最廣泛應用的房地產指數。PM2.5和房地產指數,看似風馬牛不相及,其實涉及的都是一個統計口徑問題。從某種意義上說,政策制定和實施是也一門測量科學。統計標的和方法的確定,直接決定了統計結果和經濟政策的選擇。錯誤的統計選擇,往往會導致錯誤的數​​據解讀和政策誤判。統計口徑的選擇上的偏差,倘若只是科學方法上的缺失,倒還容易糾正。更讓人擔心的是統計口徑的選擇和數據提供中系統性的利益驅動。在2007-2008全球金融危機前的信用評級機構,提供的就是這種蓄意帶有偏差的數據。通過對大量和房地產有關的債券提供過分正面的信用評級信用評級機構在短期內蒙蔽了大量投資者並獲得了高額的收入。但在金融危機中不得不正面自己不但摧毀了自己在過去幾十年間累積的聲譽,而且幾乎摧毀了全球經濟和金融體系的現實。因為不相信信用機構的評級,而大規模沽空和房地產相關的CDO和CDS產品並創下對沖基金史上的天量收益而著名的約翰保爾森在事後曾謙虛地反思:“我不過是那個有勇氣喊出'國王什麼衣服也沒有穿'的小孩”。誠實,很多時候,比智慧更有價值。(注:本文僅代表作者觀點)

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 生產率問題與分省GDP 統計等問題都是系統與造假之放大/累積

研究

中國提高生產率勢在必行


安永(Ernst&Young)諮詢一項研究顯示,經過三十多年的經濟改革,中國的勞動生產率目前與發達國家之間仍有數十年的差距,甚至依然落後於菲律賓、泰國和同屬金磚四國的巴西和印度。
生產率即生產的效率。安永9月25日發佈的《勢在必行:提高中國生產率》(China’s productivity imperative)研究報告,通過比較中國的全要素生產率(total factor productivity)與GDP增速的走勢,發現曾經推動中國經濟績效改進的因素正在失效,中國經濟在提高生產率方面正面臨嚴峻的挑戰。
報告認為,中國經濟過去實現高速增長,得益於三個因素。一是額外的勞動力投入;二是額外的資本投入;三是經濟運行效率的提高(可以用全要素生產率衡量)。

令人擔憂的是,2008年全球金融危機以後,中國生產率增速大幅下滑,勞動力對經濟增長的貢獻隨着人口結構的變化也在減少。中國經濟日益依賴包括4萬億投資在內的資本開支維持經濟增長。

對此,安永諮詢服務大中華區主管合伙人黎俊偉(Nigel Knight)指出:“經濟當中的現實問題是,過去的改革並不能算作未來成功的保證。”

黎俊偉表示,中國的生產率曾經高歌猛進。2001年後的十年可以稱作中國經濟的“黃金年代”,在華企業,尤其是來自進出口競爭行業的企業,創造了傑出的成績。這主要得益於農村人口大量湧向城市、外國的直接投資、中國的政策支持和總體表現良好的全球經濟。

但是,自2008年以來,部分優勢已經被不確定因素取代,企業面臨的商業環境與幾年前已經不可同日而語。不僅如此,大規模的投資雖然減輕了金融危機 帶來的動蕩,但卻帶來了資本效率下降的惡果。歷史經驗顯示,以資本驅動的增長是不可持續的。如果沒有生產率增長作為支撐,資本最終將成為經濟增長的絆腳石。

同時,人口紅利的機會窗口即將關閉,勞動力為中國經濟增長帶來的優勢越來越小。分析得出,勞動力的增長率從2000年到2005年間的年均1.70%降至2006年至2011年的1.05%。
國家統計局的數據表明,2008年全球金融危機期間,中國生產率增長大幅下滑。其中,勞動力從農業向製造業大規模轉移的趨勢即將結束;目前的財政體制和國有企業在眾多受保護行業中的主導地位也對生產率增長造成了限制。

報告認為,由於資本效率的下滑,中國第一代政策改革成果的餘熱已經殆盡,中國經濟與技術前沿的差距也越來越大。提高生產率對中國經濟的未來至關重要,而更多的生產率提高將來自於企業層面的改進。

中國政府將轉變增長方式作為“十二五”規劃的首要目標。“十二五”將GDP年增長率調低至7%,計劃將國內消費在GDP中所佔的比重到2015年提升至40%。此舉表明中國政府願意犧牲一些速度以保證增長質量。

報告認為,中國政府將逐年提高工資水平和最低工資標準,制定硬性目標降低能耗與碳排放,推進中國商品價格與世界市場同步,敦促企業提高資源利用率,進一步鼓勵技術密集型的新興產業,逐步取消限制生產要素市場投入成本增加的行政管制。

黎俊偉說:“中國政府必須在這其中扮演更多角色,我們可以看到在過去他們的確採取了很多積極的措施為在華企業提供了很多支持,而且這種支持措施將持續下去,以實現生產率的均衡增長。”

然而,他也強調:“企業自己也必須有所作為,如果企業不主動求變,未來將越來越嚴峻。” 他進一步指出,未來中國經濟的走向將不再依賴宏觀經濟的既得趨勢,而是越來越取決於作為個體的企業是否能健康發展。

在華企業如何提高生產率?安永的研究報告建議,企業充分利用結構性變革,比如在政府降低市場壁壘,開放某些行業時定位新的投資方向;通過更好地使用數據、運用雲計算等新技術提高靈活度,降低成本;根據中國本土需求,充分利用現有的各種技術,實現科技趕超;加快人才培養步伐,運用創新方式培養和發展人才;通過有選擇的併購推動規模經濟的增長,通過創造性的合作關係為企業增值。通過直接投資積累經驗,引進國外先進技術,如進行海外直接投資。
“這些方式將是釋放中國潛力的關鍵所在”,黎俊偉最後說。

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中國「幽靈省」GDP創歷史新高

He Yuan/European Pressphoto Agency
二月,中國一家服裝廠的工人。

北京——中國媒體本周報道,中國有一個“幽靈省”,去年創造出了近5.8萬億元人民幣的國內生產總值,與最富裕的廣東省旗鼓相當。
這是怎麼回事?
國內媒體報道,大部分責任在於地方官員故意虛報數字,因為官員希望通過達到國家要求的高增長來尋求升遷。隨着中國變得更加富裕,並且越來越融入全球經濟中,系統性誇大經濟成就的問題也隨之增大,而不是消減。
全世界對中國非凡的經濟增長習以為常。中國在世界經濟排行榜上的位置快速上升,已經超過了德國和日本,成為世界第二大經濟體。一些人預計,中國將挑 戰美國的經濟支配地位。另外,有一些國家也已經習慣於指望中國的高數據來推動全球增長。上個月,在達沃斯舉行的世界經濟論壇(World Economic Forum)上,中國人民銀行的副行長易綱說,“我認為,中國今年的經濟增長率將會是8%左右。”
不過,在國內,官員們所面臨的數據很離譜,差別可達數百萬、數十億,甚至數萬億人民幣,這意味着沒有人能完全確知實際情況究竟如何。(北京的中央政 府有自己應對這一問題的方法:據說,即將就任總理的李克強曾說,中國的金融數據是“人造”的,作為替代他靠三個指標:電力消耗、鐵路貨運和銀行貸款。)
本周,中國媒體廣泛報道了中國的“幽靈省”,也就是將31個省、直轄市、和自治區的經濟增長數據加起來,與政府採用的全國GDP相比,多出來的 GDP。2012年,兩者的差值達到了驚人的5.76萬億元人民幣。各媒體稱,這一數據創歷史新高,相當於經濟大省廣東省的生產總值。
據核算,2012年的全國GDP總值接近52萬億元人民幣,而各省數據加起來的總值接近58萬億元人民幣。
21CN新聞的大標題為《媒體曝2012年各省GDP相加總量超全國GDP五萬餘億》(確切的數據是5.76萬億)。
《新京報》報道稱,超出的部分在快速地增長:2009年各省GDP之和超出全國總值2.7萬億元;2010年超出全國3萬億元;2011年超出全國總值4.6萬億元。
這些文章指出,從鄉或縣一級開始,層層誇大的數據,最終累積出了遠遠超過合理範圍的全國總量。
問題的原因是什麼?共青團中央主管的《中國青年報》稱是“GDP政績觀”,指的是官員因高增長的政績而獲得提升,所以他們故意誇大數據的制度。
文章指出,政府試圖通過大檢查,遏制弄虛作假現象,並威脅將處理責任人,但問題長期得不到解決。
出路何在?
文章指出,“只有痛下決心改革政績評價體系。”具體包括:持久性地檢查官員報的數據,增加民眾評價官員的話語權,讓地方政府不單純對GDP負責,也對生態環境、公共服務、民生福祉和可持續發展負責。
翻譯:黃錚


The Phantom Province in China's Economy

BEIJING - China has a "phantom province" pumping out nearly 5.8 trillion renminbi (about $925 billion) in gross domestic product last year, about equivalent to the output of its richest province, Guangdong, Chinese media reported this week.
Deliberately inflated figures from local officials are largely to blame, domestic media reported, as officials seek promotion for delivering the high growth demanded by the state. And the problem of systemic exaggeration in the economy is growing, not shrinking, as the country becomes richer and is increasingly integrated into the global economy.
The world is accustomed to remarkable growth from China, which is now the world's second-largest economy after zooming up the list to overtake Germany and Japan, and is projected by some to challenge the economic dominance of the United States. And other nations have grown accustomed to looking to China to drive global growth with those high numbers. As Yi Gang, the deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, the central bank, said at the World Economic Forum in Davos last month, "I think China's growth rate will be about 8 percent this year."
Yet back home, officials are faced with figures that can be off the mark by millions, billions or trillions of renminbi, meaning no one is entirely sure what's going on. (The government in Beijing has its own way of dealing with the problem: the incoming prime minister, Li Keqiang, once reportedly said financial data in China was "man-made" and he relied instead on three indicators: electricity consumption, rail cargo and bank loans.)
This week, Chinese media reported widely on China's "phantom province," the GDP excess that resulted when the economic growth figures from 31 provinces, municipalities and regions were added up and compared to the different, national GDP figure that the government uses. In 2012, the discrepancy reached a remarkable 5.76 trillion renminbi, its biggest ever and the equivalent of the output of Guangdong province, itself an economic powerhouse, the media said.
For 2012, the national GDP figure is estimated to be nearly 52 trillion renminbi (about $8.3 trillion,) while the provincial total was nearly 58 trillion (about $9.3 trillion.)
"Media exposes total GDP of all provinces exceeds national GDP by over 5 trillion renminbi," (the exact figure was 5.76 trillion,) a headline announced in the 21CN News.
The gap is getting bigger, fast: in 2009, total provincial GDP was nearly 2.7 trillion more than national GDP; in 2010 it was more than 3 trillion; in 2011 it was 4.6 trillion, the Beijing News reported.
In a chain of exaggeration that begins at the village or county level, the figures pile up until they overreach any possible national total, the articles indicate.
The cause of the problem? "GDP 'achievement,'" said an article in the China Youth Daily, which is run by the Communist Party's Youth League, referring to the system whereby officials are promoted for achieving high growth rates so they deliberately exaggerate.
The government has tried to stop the mendacity by launching investigations and threatening to punish offenders, but the problem is stubborn, the article said.
The solution?
"Only painful and determined reforms can change the achievement-based evaluation system," the article said, including: sustained checking of officials' reporting, increasing the rights of ordinary people to evaluate officials, taking away local officials' sole responsibility for GDP growth, the environment, public services, people's prosperity and sustainable development.

每日一圖的威力

Hack-attack

A timeline of cyber-attacks from China
A new report released by Mandiant, an American cyber-security consultancy, and commissioned by the New York Times, reveals an astonishing history of hacking and online theft by a group based in Shanghai, China. Mandiant believes the hackers are part of the Chinese army. The firm saw at first hand how the group, dubbed the "Comment Crew", broke into the computer networks of over a hundred Western corporations and government institutions. Over the course of many years, the cyber thieves targeted nearly two dozen industries, with special attention paid to those in technology and sectors considered "strategic" by the central government. Despite the detailed evidence presented by the firm in its report, the Chinese government denies wrongdoing.  


每日一圖的威力

幾年前,陳寬仁老師要去演講,與我討論一圖抵萬言」的英文是什麼
如果我記得沒錯 ,陳老師指的圖都以他收集的美國品管協會ASQC的漫畫為主。或許他會開始與我們分享收藏品
除了這篇的兩本關於Information Graphics的書籍介紹之外Information Graphics, Information Graphics! 每日一圖的威...,朋友們或許會知道我在《戴明領導手冊》(頁247-49)的翻譯中,熱情地介紹過Ed Tufte教授精彩的數據表現三部曲
 現在網路資源豐富,我希望朋友能分想這一方面的資訊。現在我介紹兩處有「每日一圖」的服務
 一是The Economist 周刊的網站 http://www.economist.com/
參考我今天介紹的美國醫療成本趨勢-推移圖1960-2010
另外一個網站是中央研究院近代史研究所的網站 每日一圖
http://www.mh.sinica.edu.tw/DailyImage.aspx

2013年2月12日 星期二

"false and misleading" 油電混合汽車油耗測試造假嗎?


Ford 與 Dr. Deming關係密切. 此案真的可當新經濟環境下的可能造假案....
有數個 教訓: 政府單位的規格永遠不周全測試/ 永遠不要相信公司自己公布的數據-- 這是為什麼日本要將波音公司的夢想機的鋰電池問題分析交给第三方.




油電混合車油耗測試造假?


2013-02-06 Web only 作者:經濟學人

去年,白宮宣佈,2025年的統合燃料效能標準將升至每加侖54.5英哩,不過,由於美國環保署(EPA)的衡量方式不同,這個數字大約等於環保署標章的每加侖36至38英哩。
此外,汽車製造商會自行測試,將結果交給國家公路交通安全管理局,再轉送給EPA驗證。但EPA只會檢視一小部分的結果,希望能藉此避免汽車製造商造假。多數製造商並未造假,但有時它們會虛報數字好取得行銷優勢,或是利用EPA測試方式中的漏洞。
現在,鎂光燈的焦點則轉到了福特身上;福特新推出的兩款油電混合車擁有極佳的數字,達每加侖47英哩,但許多買家也抱怨實際上根本跑不了那麼遠。
而在12月,消費者報導進行實測後發現,福特的測試數字與實際道路表現,差距高達每加侖8至10英哩。自那時開始,福特便一直強調部分客戶每加侖甚至能跑超過47英哩,主要的影響因素在於駕駛習慣。
確實,駕駛習慣、天候、怠速過久、車況等因素都會影響油耗表現,但目前EPA的測試方法已經將許多真實世界的情況考量在內,也用了更精確的方式來計算油耗。
那麼,福特的新款油電混合車,到底是怎麼到達每加侖47英哩的?似乎就是能在EPA的油耗測試中表現特別好。而從使用者的實際體驗、消費者報導的測試來看,福特似乎把心力放在測試,而不是真正的道路表現。

EPA目前正在檢視此事,但能做的實在不多。福特並沒有違法,但民眾意見和法庭判決也會比美國政府來得嚴厲。第一件相關訴訟已經於12月7日進入聯邦法院,而在美國,接下來一定還會有更多訴訟案。(黃維德譯)
©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2013


Difference Engine: Your mileage may vary
Fuel economy
AS A rule of thumb, the average number of miles most American motorists get per gallon is a good mile or two less than the "combined" figure printed on the window stickers fixed to new cars in dealers' showrooms. It used to be a lot worse. But from the 2008 model year onwards, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)—the body that devises the fuel-economy tests and checks the data that vehicle manufacturers provide for the government's Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) programme—revised its testing procedure to match peoples' driving habits much better.
At its laboratory in Ann Arbor, Michigan, the EPA does not check all the test results of every make and model for accuracy. Nor does the EPA determine whether manufacturers have met the increasingly stringent CAFE requirements—and, if not, what fines to levy. Those are tasks for the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the tax authorities.
This year, NHTSA requires manufacturers to achieve a CAFE figure of 34.2mpg (6.9 litres per 100 kilometres) for all car models in their ranges, and an average of 26mpg for all their light trucks. These CAFE averages are not to be confused with the fuel-economy numbers shown on the window stickers, which come from the EPA's laboratory's tests, and are adjusted to take driving conditions in the real world into effect. The CAFE figures, by contrast, are derived from different testing procedures and have various exemptions and credits built into them.
Last Year, the White House announced new CAFE targets that raise the fuel-economy standard to 54.5mpg by 2025. However, given the difference between the two ways of measuring fuel economy, a CAFE of 54.5mpg will be equivalent to an EPA combined sticker figure of around 36-38mpg.
Confusing? That is not the half of it. For a start, manufacturers test their own vehicles and report their results to NHTSA, which then sends the data to the EPA for verification. Like the taxman, the EPA audits only a small sample (up to 15%) of these results, hoping thereby to keep the vehicle manufacturers honest.
Mostly they are. But sometimes, they cheat and report fuel-economy figures that are better than their competitors', to gain a marketing edge. At other times, they game the system with engineering tricks which take full advantage of loopholes in the EPA's testing procedures, while technically staying within the confines of the law.
Apart from auditing a sample, the EPA listens carefully to consumers' complaints. Recently, those complaints have been getting louder, and auditing has increased as a consequence. The first to feel the EPA's wrath were Hyundai and its affiliate, Kia. Between them, they were found to have fudged the fuel-economy figures of 13 of their models by as much as 6mpg.
The two South Korean carmakers had advertised fuel economies for certain models in excess of 40mpg on the highway. They were subsequently forced to revise their claims down, relabel vehicles in showrooms, and credit customers for the additional fuel costs incurred. The incident was a public-relations disaster and huge embarrassment for the firms, both of which had been riding high in the American market until then.
Now it is Ford's turn to sweat under the EPA spotlight. When Ford submitted the EPA test results for its new mid-sized hybrids, the Fusion Hybrid and the C-Max Hybrid, both were rated at 47mpg on the EPA's city, highway and combined cycles (the last being a weighted average of 55% city and 45% highway results). That was only a smidgeon beneath the all-conquering Toyota Prius, a smaller vehicle rated at 51/48/50mpg for city, highway and combined cycles. Ford's advertising promptly trumpeted its hybrids' 47/47/47 fuel-economy loudly over the airwaves and in print.
Perhaps too loudly. The trouble began shortly after the EPA posted the new Ford figures on one of its websites (www.fueleconomy.gov) last September. Complaints flooded in from buyers who found their Fusion and C-Max hybrids were getting nothing like the EPA rating. The average reported on the website by owners was 39.6mpg for the Fusion Hybrid, and 39.1mpg for the C-Max Hybrid.
Then, in December, Consumer Reports, one of the most trusted consumer watchdogs in America, weighed in with its own findings. After 2,000 miles of real-world motoring, the publication's testers found the Fusion Hybrid got only 35/41/39mpg, and the C-Max Hybrid no more than 35/38/37mpg—some 8-10mpg less than claimed. Of all the models tested in 2012, Consumer Reports had never encountered such discrepancies. Ever since, Ford has been on the defensive, claiming some of its customers actually get more than 47mpg. It is all a matter of driving style, the company says.
True enough. Sudden acceleration and heavy braking can reduce fuel economy by as much as 33% on the open road, and up to 5% in cities. Keeping the air-conditioning on when it is not needed can add 5%-25% to the fuel bill. Making short trips, especially in cool weather when the engine never gets warm enough to function properly, will burn 10%-15% more fuel.
Driving fast takes its toll on fuel consumption, too. The vehicle's aerodynamic drag goes up with the square of its speed. The engine has to do more than twice as much work overcoming wind resistance at 80mph as it does at 55mph. Roof-racks and cargo boxes only make matters worse.
Excessive idling burns petrol needlessly as well. The rule nowadays is to switch the engine off if the vehicle is expected to be idle for more than 30 seconds—though the few seconds' delay in restarting at traffic lights can frustrate motorists queuing behind. Cars in Europe tend to be fitted with beefier batteries and starter motors, allowing their automatic stop-start mechanisms to function seamlessly. Cars fitted with automatic stop-start, which cuts fuel consumption by 5% or more, are beginning to enter the American market.
Then there is the condition of the vehicle itself. Underinflated or poorly aligned tyres do not help. Carrying unnecessary junk in the boot or keeping the windows open causes the engine to work harder and burn more petrol. Dirty spark plugs and air filters can knock a mile or two off a car's mpg figure, especially in older models.
But nowadays the EPA's five dynamometer tests take many of those real-world conditions into account. For instance, engines are started cold as well as hot. In one test, the ambient temperature in the test cell is cranked up to 95ºF (ie, 35ºC) to make the air-conditioning work harder. In another test, the outside temperature is dropped to 20ºF to represent winter motoring.
The dynamometer simulates the stop-go traffic of city driving, steady speeds of highway motoring, as well as rapid acceleration and braking with speeds up to 80mph that most motorists do at one time or another. Meanwhile, fuel consumption is calculated more accurately using a carbon-balance equation, which takes into account the known amount of carbon in the fuel to start with, and the carbon emitted and captured during the test.
If there is a problem with the EPA's test procedure, it is the fuel used rather than unrealistic driving cycles. The EPA requires pure petroleum spirit to be used in all petrol-engined vehicles being tested. Yet, the majority of pumps in America only sell petrol diluted with 10% ethanol. Such blends reduce mileage by 4%-5%. That, alone, probably accounts for the difference most motorists experience between the EPA's sticker figures and what they get on the road.
So, where do Ford's new hybrids figure in all this? The short answer is that, while they are no slouches, their transmissions appear to have been optimised to perform especially well on the EPA's fuel-economy tests. Both the Fusion Hybrid and the C-Max Hybrid can cruise at speeds up to 62mph on batteries alone, with their petrol engine switched off. When most of the EPA testing is done at much lower speeds, such an ability offers significant advantages.
With even the EPA's highway test being performed at an average of only 48mph, and a maximum of 60mph, the Ford hybrids still manage to excel. As a rule, hybrids achieve their best results in the cut and thrust of city traffic, not on the highway. The real-world performance experienced by users and Consumer Reports implies the Fords were engineered to work better on tests than on roads.
The EPA is now looking into the matter, though there is nothing much it can do. By all accounts, Ford (unlike Hyundai and Kia) has done no actual wrong—other than to drive a battery-powered bulldozer through the spirit, if not the letter, of the law. For that, it will find public opinion and the courts harsher judges than the government. The first lawsuit against Ford for "false and misleading" advertising was filed in federal court on December 7th. This being America, more are bound to follow.
©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2013



-----
 Samsonite Recalls Dual-Wattage Travel Converter Kits Due to Fire, Burn Hazards

Consumers should stop using this product unless otherwise instructed. It is illegal to resell or attempt to resell a recalled consumer product.

Recall date: February 12, 2013

Recall number: 13-119

Name of product: Dual-Wattage Travel Converter Kits

Hazard: The converter can overheat if a load in excess of 50 watts is applied to the converter while in the 50-watt setting. This poses a fire and burn hazard to consumers.

Remedy: Consumers should immediately stop using the recalled travel converters and contact Samsonite to return the product for a full refund.

Consumer Contact: Samsonite; toll-free at (800) 382-7259 from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET Monday through Friday; at e-mail recall@samsonite.com or online at www.samsonite.com/recall

Photos are available at: http://www.cpsc.gov/en/Recalls/2013/Samsonite-Recalls-Dual-Wattage-Travel-Converter-Kits/

Units: About 20,000

Description: This recall involves the Samsonite Dual-Wattage Travel Converter Kits used to make standard U.S. and Canadian appliances usable abroad. The kit includes one black converter to change 220-volt AC electricity to 110-volt AC, two adapter plugs with round prongs, two with flat prongs and one grounded adapter plug with three flat prongs. The converter has a red switch to adjust the wattage of the appliance from 50 to 1600 watts. The words "Dual-Wattage Converter" and "Do Not Use 50W on Hair Dryer" appear on the front of the converter. The Samsonite logo appears on each piece in the set.

Incidents/Injuries: Samsonite is aware of three converters overheating. No injuries or property damage have been reported.

Sold at: Retail stores nationwide and at the Samsonite on-line store from January 2011 through December 2012 for approximately $35.

Importer: Samsonite LLC, of Mansfield, Mass.

Manufactured in: China



******************************


The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) is still interested in
receiving incident or injury reports that are either directly related to a
product recall or involve a different hazard with the same product. Please
tell us about your experience with the product on SaferProducts.gov.
 **************************

Nestle voluntarily recalls Lean Cuisine frozen entree due to possible glass ...
Your Houston News
Nestlé Prepared Foods Company today announced the voluntary recall of two production codes of LEAN CUISINE® Culinary Collection Mushroom Mezzaluna Ravioli, UPC 13800-58358. The production codes are 2311587812 and 2312587812; the “best ...
See all stories on this topic »
Web4 new results for voluntary recall
UPDATED--Sprouters Northwest Expands Voluntary Recall to All
Northwest is voluntarily recalling all varieties of sprouts products, wheatgrass and pea shoots due to the potential contamination with Listeria monocytogenes, ...
www.fda.gov/Safety/Recalls/ucm338741.htm
Nestle Prepared Foods Company Announces Voluntary ... - Walmart
Nestle Prepared Foods Company Announces Voluntary Recall of LEAN CUISINE ® Culinary Collection Mushroom Mezzaluna Ravioli.
corporate.walmart.com/nestle-prepared-foods-company-annou...
Novartis Pharma Logistics, Inc. voluntarily recalling in the Bahamas ...
Novartis Pharma Logistics, Inc. voluntarily recalling in the Bahamas, select lots of certain over-the-counter products due to bottle closure defect. - Voluntary recall ...
www.prnewswire.com/.../novartis-pharma-logistics-inc-volunt...
Glass found in Lean Cuisine meals prompts voluntary recall - CBS 5 ...
A voluntary recall of two codes of the Lean Cuisine Culinary Collection Mushroom Mezzaluna Ravioli was announced Monday by Nestle Prepared Foods ...
www.kpho.com/.../lean-cuisine-recall-effected-after-glass-foun...

2013年2月10日 星期日

品質管理世態雜項/

QUALITY WORLD 自動刪除而無法連絡人.  幾年前處理過類似的問題 不會投訴無門
Google的 BLOGGER/BLOGSPOT的管理  真爛!

 保命勝愛國…日系空氣清淨機 在中國熱賣

北京空氣污染嚴重,中國民眾選購空氣清淨機偏愛日系品牌,並未受到去年以來中日領土爭議影響。(法新社)

〔編譯楊芙宜/綜合報導〕日本與中國去年以來因釣魚台領土爭議交惡,中國民眾反日情緒高漲、抵制日 貨,導致日系汽車在中國市場銷量大減,但近來北京等地空氣污染嚴重,當地日本品牌空氣清淨機卻熱賣,暢銷程度遠超過中國品牌。日經新聞指出,攸關人命「健 康」與「安心」議題,中國人寧可買日系產品勝過中國貨。
今年以來,中國空氣污染嚴重程度有增無減,北京等許多城市民眾出門必須全身防備戴口罩,防止暴露在有毒煙霧與懸浮微粒過量的空氣下,導致咳嗽不停、眼睛刺痛與淚流不停,醫生更警告吸入過量污染空氣恐對肺部與呼吸道造成永久性傷害。
空氣清淨機隨著需求攀升,在中國市場大賣,兩年時間銷量即倍增。據估計,從二○一○年約五十萬台,成長到二○一二年的一百萬台,其中最暢銷的日系產品包括松下、夏普與大金。
日經新聞報導,一月空氣清淨機在中國銷量與去年同月相比,日本品牌松下(Panasonic)是去年銷量的兩倍,夏普(Sharp)達三倍、大金工業(Daikin Industries)則是三.六倍。
這三大日本品牌去年在中國總市占率約達四成,今年一月份持續成長,主因是去除空氣污染物質的新技術受到中國消費者肯定,只好先拋開反日情結、保命優先。
看好未來中國市場,松下已決定在廣東工廠增加產能五十%,正考慮讓去年底新建的清淨機馬達工廠提前運轉生產。夏普在上海的工廠也提前投入零組件與原材料,以便提高產能。
相較下,中國品牌反不受當地消費者青睞。二○○九年前一度曾有五十%以上市占率的中國品牌「亞都」,到二○一二年市占僅剩十五%左右,今年以來與日系廠牌差距仍在擴大當中。




---- 所以將其一則寫在這

消基會公布第2次上網調查,根據調查,我國3G平均下載速率為2.06Mbps,就各家電信業者比較,台灣大 (3045)下載速率最快,中華電 (2412)、遠傳 (4904)、威寶分別排2至4 名,對於消基會的調查,遠傳提出嚴正聲明指出,消基會所做的調查與電信技術中心 (TTC)元月份公布的「寬頻上網速率評量計畫」寬頻效能分析報告結果,截然不同。
遠傳指出,根據TTC量測結果,遠傳消費者端量測平均下載速度2.98Mbps,高於業者平均值2.52Mbps。定點量測表現為2.31Mbps,移動量測則為1.64Mbps,以上數據表現均為第一名。



  • 普悠瑪 未通過出廠測試就登台

  • 自由時報-

〔自由時報記者曾鴻儒/台北報導〕台鐵官員昨天證實,普悠瑪列車當初在日本並未通過出廠測試,出現一百多項缺失,赴日監造人員甚至建議不准出廠,但最後上級長官仍讓列車先進入台灣,日後再補正,立委怒轟難怪交通部長毛治國升官。
赴日監造人員 建議不出廠
立法院民進黨團昨天邀請台鐵針對普悠瑪列車測試問題進行專案報告,台鐵局長范植谷表示,普悠瑪第一組編組已完成所有測試,正由英國勞氏驗船協會(IV&V)進行獨立查核驗證,二月四日前應可順利取得營運安全認證,在二月六日上路,擔起春節輸運重任。
立委則追問普悠瑪列車當初是否通過日本出廠測試?並找來普悠瑪列車來台前、奉派前往日本監造車輛的台鐵機務處車輛科前科長楊安心當場「對質」。
台鐵高層 堅持列車速來台
立委段宜康指出,楊安心赴日發現普悠瑪列車有一百多項缺失,而且尚未完成出廠測試,於是緊急發電子郵件,建議台鐵不要讓列車出廠來台,台鐵高層卻執意讓列車儘速來台,還將楊安心從日本召回,並將他改調為正工程司。
段宜康質疑,楊安心為何至今不敢在監造文件上簽字?為何事後遭調職?為什麼依法必須上網公告的監造文件,台鐵不僅不公告,連立法院去年就要求提供,都直到上週才拿出來?
楊安心解釋,當時因電磁干擾、傾斜測試等項目尚未完成,才請示局本部,之後確認這些項目依合約規定可來台測試。他也表示,未簽字部分他願意在日後補簽,調職是身體因素, 與此案無關。但他不願再多談自己身體出了什麼問題。
立委轟台鐵 幫馬兌現支票
但立委不斷逼問下,台鐵機務處長何獻霖「說溜嘴」,證實楊安心確曾發電子郵件建議不要讓列車出廠裝船,不過台鐵研判後認為楊安心列舉的一百多項缺失,「不是重要項目」才放行。此話一出,頓時全場譁然。
段宜康、李昆澤抨擊台鐵這麼急,就是要幫毛治國與總統馬英九兌現政治承諾,要讓普悠瑪能趕在春節上路,「難怪你們部長升官了!」田秋堇則質疑,楊安心以前不敢簽字,現在為何願意補簽?此舉有無違法?交通部要給國人一個交代。
交通部政務次長葉匡時當場允諾,普悠瑪列車未通過出廠測試就先來台、尚未通過測試就先售票,交通部都會追查與檢討,普悠瑪車票雖已先行開賣,交通部一定會等通過驗證、確保安全
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This message contains the following:

1. High Powered Magnet Balls Recalled by SCS Direct Due to Risk of Ingestion; Sold Exclusively on Amazon.com http://www.cpsc.gov/en/Recalls/2013/High-Powered-Magnet-Balls/
2. Kringles Toys and Gifts Recalls High Powered Magnets Due to Ingestion Hazard; Sold Exclusively on Amazon.com http://www.cpsc.gov/en/Recalls/2013/Kringles-Toys-and-Gifts-Recalls-High-Powered-Magnets/
3. World Imports Recalls Bunk Beds Due to Violation of Safety Standard
http://www.cpsc.gov/en/Recalls/2013/World-Imports-Recalls-Bunk-Beds/
4. FoodState Recalls Bottles of MegaFood One Daily Supplements Due to Lack of Child-Resistant Packaging http://www.cpsc.gov/en/Recalls/2013/FoodState-Recalls-Bottles-of-MegaFood-One-Daily-Supplements/
5. Triaminic and Theraflu Products Recalled Due to Failure to Meet Child-Resistant Closure Requirement; Risk of Poisoning http://www.cpsc.gov/en/Recalls/2013/Triaminic-and-Theraflu-Products-Recalled/
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This message contains the following:

1. Natart Chelsea Dressers Recalled By Gemme Juvenile To Reduce Tip-Over Hazard; Death of Toddler Reported http://www.cpsc.gov/en/Recalls/2013/Natart-Chelsea-Dressers-Recalled-By-Gemme-Juvenile-To-Reduce-Tip-Over-Hazard-Death-of-Toddler-Reported/
2. Million Dollar Baby Dressers Recalled by Bexco Due to Tip-Over Hazards; Two Toddler Deaths Reported http://www.cpsc.gov/en/Recalls/2013/Million-Dollar-Baby-Dressers-Recalled-by-Bexco-Due-to-Tip-Over-Hazards-Two-Toddler-Deaths-Reported/
3. Sportspower Expands Trampoline Recall Due to Fall Hazard; Sold Exclusively at Walmart
http://www.cpsc.gov/en/Recalls/2013/Sportspower-Expands-Trampoline-Recall-Due-to-Fall-Hazard-Sold-Exclusively-at-Walmart/

2013年2月3日 星期日

英國內閣的 The Behavioural Insights Team


The Behavioural Insights Team的運作 是否類似Dr. Deming 所說的"轉型的組織"方式
很值得研究




The Behavioural Insights Team

The Behavioural Insights Team was set up in July 2010 with a remit to find innovative ways of encouraging, enabling and supporting people to make better choices for themselves[1]. Check out the blog here.
The Team’s work draws on insights from the growing body of academic research in the fields of behavioural economics and psychology which show how often subtle changes to the way in which decisions are framed can have big impacts on how people respond to them.
The Team’s remit is to apply these insights to public policy making in the UK. Since the team was set up, the team has worked with almost every department across a very wide range of policy areas.
It has also published several papers that that show how the team is applying behavioural insights to the following policy areas:
  • test, learn, adapt, which sets out the methodology of the team and makes the case for the wider use of randomised controlled trials in public policy
  • fraud, error and debt, where the team has shown how changes to processes, forms and letters can result in significant increases in compliance
  • energy efficiency, including the launch of trials that seek to understand how we can encourage the uptake of energy efficiency measures
  • consumer affairs, including the launch of the ‘midata’ programme and moves to push forward collective purchasing schemes
  • health, including organ donation and smoking cessation
A brief summary of some of the team's more recent work can be found here.
Download the Government Response to the Science and Technology Select Committee Report on Behaviour Change report.
[1]Coalition Agreement.


 英「推一把」效果佳 多國有興趣

〔國際新聞中心/綜合報導〕缺錢的政府共同面對的問題是:要怎麼讓國民更健康、更幸福,同時又可以 為納稅人省錢?英國首相卡麥隆籌組了一支暱稱為「推一把小組(nudge unit)」的「行為洞察團隊(Behavioural Insights Team)」,測試是不是只要用對方法,輕輕「推一把」就能達到莫大效果。
誘國人端正行為
2010 年成立、由12人組成的「推一把小組」,悄悄地草擬多項誘使英國人端正行為的廣泛政策,例如按時繳稅、節約能源、戒掉菸癮等。該小組宣稱,未來5年可為納 稅人節省3億英鎊(約139億台幣)。該小組最成功的案例之一,就是發信給遲繳稅的納稅人,聲稱大部分人都已繳完稅,這種心理策略竟然讓繳稅率提高1成 5,每年為國庫增加3000萬英鎊(約13億9500萬台幣)稅收。
小組負責人哈鵬(David Halpern)解釋,人都是社群動物,「如果你看到別人做某件事,通常也會跟著做。」但他也坦承,這項計畫如此順利,「我們也很驚訝」。有許多政府部門找上該小組,詢問:「你們能幫幫我們的這項政策嗎?」
該小組的另外一次實驗,則是觀察如何運用隔離閣樓策略,鼓勵人們節約能源,因為儘管政府祭出補助方案,仍有4成家戶做不到節約。研究顯示,無法節能的主要障礙不在費用,而是他們的閣樓堆滿垃圾,懶得清理。哈鵬說:「所以我們提供閣樓清理計畫,結果達成率是原來的3倍。」
多國政府對「推一把小組」的成功非常感興趣,因此該小組也開始對國外提供專業,包括協助澳洲新南威爾斯州政府及另一個未披露的政府籌設類似小組。
2經濟學家理論
「推 一把小組」的靈感,來自美國經濟學家塞勒(Richard Thaler)與桑思坦(Cass Sunstein)2人於2008年在同名著作中提出的「推力(Nudge)」理論。卡麥隆並非唯一一位擁抱「推力」理論的世界領袖,塞勒曾擔任丹麥與法 國等政府的顧問,桑思坦去年8月前都在美國總統歐巴馬政府內位居要職。
全世界各地實際運用「推力」理論的例子不勝枚舉,最有名的是荷蘭阿姆斯特丹史基浦機場(Schiphol Airport),在男廁的小便斗刻上假昆蟲讓旅客瞄準,竟然讓尿液四溢的情況大減。

News


新書預告:《 台灣戴明圈 2013 : 淵博知識共同體與日本論》


今年的新書希望有環保健康安全領域的文章尤其是K. J. Wu 傳來一份防滑~為了您的健康所以我向專家邀稿:
Dear Ken,
跟你邀稿 SHE方面 六月底截稿..
請惠賜一篇  譬如說 地板滑之要求與故事
我去年要求懷恩堂改善"出口處"水泥地版....
他今天給我回信
HC,

(地板安全)確實是重要問題 / 我試著寫給你看看再說 /拜讀你的工安文章覺得是
台灣相當(前沿)的評論值得深思討論 /有機會要請你參加研討會
《學會(CSQ)的後援會》是我2012年12月寫給數十位朋友談CSQ的業務改善之建議 (數十篇短信將整理成一文發表在《 台灣戴明圈 2013 : 淵博知識共同體》



Dear Hanching,

You can find a copy of "Societas Qualitatis" March 1988, at:
 http://www.fr-deming.org/juse-1988.pdf
I have scanned it especially for you.

The JUSE had published a scientific journal in English from 1951 to 1993. The title is: "Reports of Statistical Application Research. ISSN 0034-4842. Size 18x25 cm. 45 pages. Quarterly issue. I subscribed since January 1983 until the end.

Some years later, the JUSE had published "Societas Qualitatis" from May 1987 to August 1997. ISSN 0918-5542. Size 20x27 cm. Eight pages. Bimonthly issue. I subscribed all the time.

They are highly valuable documents. I hope that my personal copies shall not be thrown to the garbage after I have quit this world. The JUSE had (and still has) the noble aim to teach TQC all over the world for the Benefit of mankind. But the Americans, overwhelmed by the cult of money, don't understand.

Best wishes,
Jean-Marie

新書預告


《台灣戴明圈 2013 : 淵博知識共同體》


導言

從《台灣戴明圈 2008》出發....


第一部 淵博知識
.領導
美國戴明學院Orsini  博士序言
評介南方朔《笨蛋!問題在領導》
個案 (1):紐約市長Michael R. Bloomberg 麥克‧彭博與
個案 (2):前IBM公司董事長Samuel Palmisano,
.系統論變異知識/學習心理學
.
第二部  人物及邀稿
Dr. Deming 的故事
Jean Marie Gouge法國戴明協會
Bill Scherkenbach
劉振百年紀念
陳寬仁
戴久永
趙民德
官生平 騰善雲端的百科
郭展銓

蘇錦坤  論作假
吳國精 光纖零組件
葉清萊總經理創立台灣服飾品牌
康志峰的汽車黑盒子

第三部  產業 政府 教育


第四部       事情與書籍大師與我

國際淵博知識共同體紀事
美國  美國戴明學院  哥倫比亞大學商學院
日本 JUSE 豐田汽車公司等等
法國
台灣  2012-2013 互動-活動

戴明與我   Jean Marie Gouge (法國戴明協會)
J. M. Juran與我  王晃三
大作: 戴久永的專欄:《管理》月刊與《工商時報》為主

網誌存檔