「華人戴明學院」是戴明哲學的學習共同體 ,致力於淵博型智識系統的研究、推廣和運用。 The purpose of this blog is to advance the ideas and ideals of W. Edwards Deming.

2019年12月8日 星期日

汽車產業大變動:中國電動汽車行業前路崎嶇。七年期車貸陷阱:美國中產階級負擔不起買下的車 Honda;Daimler, the owner of Mercedes-Benz,




說到咖啡渣跟汽車的關聯,很多人會想到把咖啡渣放在車內除臭,但現在速食業者麥當勞則是跟汽車業者福特合作,將要廢棄的咖啡渣做成車燈殼,變成另類的塑膠替代商品。
 
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七年期車貸陷阱:美國中產階級負擔不起買下的車



日產汽車的復甦之路還處於「概念」階段


Honda of the UK Manufacturing Ltd. (informally HUM) is a United Kingdom-based manufacturing subsidiary of the multinational automotive company Honda. HUM operates manufacturing plants at a site in Swindon, England, which include ...
Products‎: ‎Automobiles‎, engines
Key people‎: ‎David Hodgetts, Managing Director, ...
Number of employees‎: ‎approx. 3,400
Headquarters‎: ‎Swindon‎, Wiltshire, United Kingdom
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The car industry's electric upheaval claims another 10,000 jobs



London (CNN Business)Daimler, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, is cutting at least 10,000 jobs around the world, making it the latest carmaker to shed workers as the industry races toward its electric future.
The German company said Friday that it needs to reduce staffing costs in order to develop clean vehicles, an imperative that is roiling the global autos industry and sparking waves of new investment in electric cars.
"The automotive industry is in the middle of the biggest transformation in its history," Daimler said in a statement, adding that it wants to improve its competitiveness, innovation and investment strength.
    Daimler (DDAIF) personnel chief Wilfried Porth told reporters that job reductions would be in the low five digits. Management positions will also be trimmed by 10%. The company employs roughly 300,000 people, nearly 60% of whom work in Germany. The changes will save €1.4 billion ($1.5 billion) by the end of 2022, Daimler said.
    Traditional carmakers around the world are ripping up their business models in the hope of adapting to a new world in which electricity replaces gasoline and diesel. Electric cars, which have fewer parts than those powered by internal combustion engines, require fewer workers to assemble. But they cost a lot to develop.
    Audi, which is owned by Volkswagen (VLKAF), said this week it will cut 9,500 jobs by 2025, or roughly 10% of its global workforce. That will free up €6 billion ($6.6 billion) over 10 years. At the same time, the maker of premium cars is creating 2,000 jobs focused on electric mobility and other new technology.
    Ford (F) said in May that it would slash thousands of office jobs worldwide, following that up one month later with 12,000 more cuts as part of a major overhaul of its struggling business in Europe. Nissan (NSANF) announced in July that it would reduce its global workforce by 12,500.
    Workers check a Mercedes-Benz E-Class at a plant in Moscow.
    The changes come amid a slump in global auto sales, which could worsen as economies around the world slow or even fall into recession. Fitch Ratings said Monday that it expects global car sales to drop by around 3.1 million this year — a sharper fall than in 2008, when the world was gripped by the financial crisis.
      Carmakers are under especially intense pressure in the United Kingdom and India, where economic weakness has reduced demand for new cars and dented production. The number of vehicles produced in Britain has fallen for 16 of the past 17 months because of continued uncertainty over Brexit.
      The huge scale of the required changes are forcing some companies to find partners and turning others into acquisition targets. Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) and Peugeot owner PSA Group (PUGOY) announced plans to merge last month, creating a major new force in the industry. Daimler has joined with German rival BMW (BMWYY) to form a joint venture that will develop driverless technology. Honda (HMC) has invested in General Motors' (GM) self-driving car unit.

      ****獨家分析
      中國電動汽車行業前路崎嶇
      Jacky Wong


      法蘭克福車展上,中國一汽展出的一輛紅旗概念電動SUV。圖片來源:KRISZTIAN BOCSI/BLOOMBERG NEWS

      中國政府想要大量的電動汽車,但卻不再願意為此埋單。汽車製造商陷入不得不埋單的風險。

      在6月份中國政府大幅削減了電動汽車購買補貼之後,中國這一全球最大汽車市場上的電動汽車銷量急劇下滑。從7月到10月,包括插電式混合動力車在內的新能源汽車銷量同比下降了28%。

      許多買家可能在補貼削減前購買了電動汽車,放大了當前的這種後續影響。不過,這一大幅下降表明,除非政府負擔很大一部分成本,否則對這種新技術的需求並不強勁。在沒有補貼的情況下,電動汽車的價格仍高於同等規格的傳統汽車。

      豪華電動汽車在上海和北京等中國最富裕的城市可能會有買家,部分原因是電動汽車在那裡不受牌照配額限制。然而,隨著中國政府試圖遏制汽車銷量的下滑,針對傳統引擎汽車的限制開始放鬆。深圳和廣州在6月份將車牌配額提高了一半,其他城市可能也會效仿。

      出租車或網約車公司以及政府相關的車隊可能對補貼削減不那麼敏感,它們可能會成為對電動汽車的主要需求來源。Bernstein的分析師Robin Zhu說,雖然沒有官方統計數據,但一些汽車製造商說,面向這些群體的電動汽車銷量約佔電動汽車總銷量的70%。這項新技術在吸引個人買家方面還有很長的路要走。


      儘管如此,中國政府似乎仍對電動汽車行業發展表示支持。據本週發布的15年發展規劃草案,中國希望到2025年新能源汽車新車銷量佔比能達到25%左右。這比兩年前發布的前一份路線圖中制定的目標更高,而且可能很難實現。目前,新能源汽車在整個中國汽車市場中的佔比僅為5%左右。

      中國可能不會為了實現這一目標而恢復銷售補貼。政府現在的目標是確保質量而不僅僅是數量,特別是考慮到補貼成本與幾年前相比會更高,當時的電動汽車市場規模要小得多。取而代之的是,北京方面會把錢花在改善充電樁網絡等基礎設施上。這似乎是一種提高電動汽車普及率的更明智方式,雖然見效較慢。

      就像在歐盟一樣,汽車製造商即使不賺錢也將繼續在中國推出新的電動汽車。與布魯塞爾方面一樣,中國政府要求車企的新能源汽車銷量在其總銷量中佔據一定比例。這種做法可能會導致新能源汽車供過於求。Bernstein認為,車企自身是吸收過剩供給的一個潛在需求來源,因為許多車企正在成立自己的網約車公司。

      中國的電動汽車市場已經有了一個令人興奮的開端,但投資者將迎來崎嶇不平的發展前路。


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