「華人戴明學院」是戴明哲學的學習共同體 ,致力於淵博型智識系統的研究、推廣和運用。 The purpose of this blog is to advance the ideas and ideals of W. Edwards Deming.

2009年11月24日 星期二

台灣戴明圈 50-58



昨夜參加 Elias 討論會 有一提案 請 參考

我今年參加過幾次台大哲學系您主持的演講 都很精彩
我認為他們的論文和演說討論等都可以翻譯整理出來 如此2年可以出一本書 由 ntu press 或我找人幫你出版

申請個助理 幫忙...請參考



昨夜參加 Elias 討論會 有一提案 請 參考

我今年參加過幾次台大哲學系您主持的演講 都很精彩
我認為他們的論文和演說討論等都可以翻譯整理出來 如此2年可以出一本書 由 ntu press 或我找人幫你出版

申請個助理 幫忙...請參考

NOVEMBER 25, 2009, 7:00 P.M. ET wsj
Toyota to Fix Gas Pedal on Recalled Cars

DETROIT—Toyota Motor Corp. said it will fix the gas pedal on about four million vehicles in the U.S. to address sudden-acceleration problems, as the Japanese auto maker tries to repair its reputation amid the company's biggest recall to date.

The remedy covers eight Toyota and Lexus models in which floor mats caused the gas pedal to get stuck, and involves trimming the pedal. The new measures, announced Wednesday, are expected to get under way in January. They affect the Japanese auto maker's core products: the Camry sedan, the top-selling passenger car in the U.S.; and the eco-friendly Prius, the best-selling ...

送書給洪醫師時 發現將怡香茶園寫成 茶圓 因為我按錯

胡適 晚年不贊成 將他30年前和梁啟超先生列 出的"國學要目"再印
Deming 在 Out of the Crisis
列出的比較可靠 因為他80幾歲啦

The psychology of warranties

CUSTOMERS tend to agonise over the relative merits of different models of electronic goods such as digital cameras or plasma televisions. But when they get to the till, many spend freely on something they barely think about at all: an extended warranty, which is often more profitable to the retailer than the device it covers.

Shoppers typically pay 10-50% of the cost of a product to insure it beyond the term covered by the manufacturer’s guarantee. The terms of these deals vary (and there is often a great deal of fine print), but they usually promise to repair or replace a faulty device for between one and four years. Yet products rarely break within the period covered, and repairs tend to cost no more than the warranty itself. That makes warranties amazingly profitable: they generate over $16 billion annually for American retailers, according to Warranty Week, a trade journal.

So why, asks a paper published in the December issue of the Journal of Consumer Research, do so many consumers still buy extended warranties? The authors—Tao Chen of the University of Maryland, Ajay Kalra of Rice University and Baohong Sun of Carnegie Mellon University—examined purchase data from a big electronics retailer for over 600 households from November 2003 to October 2004. They concluded that the decision to buy a warranty had a great deal to do with a shopper’s mood.

If a customer is about to buy something fun (ie, a plasma television rather than a vacuum cleaner), he will be more inclined to splash out on extra insurance. This is because consumers value “hedonic” items over utilitarian ones, regardless of the actual price tag. This is especially true if the item is on sale, as finding an unexpected bargain leaves buyers feeling flush and pleased. The study also found that poorer consumers are more likely to buy “potentially unnecessary and overpriced insurance”, because they are more worried about the expense of replacing a product if it breaks.

The popularity of warranties should logically depend on the likelihood of a product’s failure, says Mr Kalra. But although most policies go unused, he admits that the emotional tranquillity that comes with buying a new warranty is not in itself without value, even if “rationally, it doesn’t make sense”.


作者:經濟學人  出處:Web Only 2009/11


購物者通常得付出商品價格的10-50%,添購製造商保固之外的延長保固。延長保固方案的內容各有不同,大多是在1到4 年內提供維修或是故障品替換。不過,產品很少會在保固期限內損壞,維修成本也不太會超過保固費用,因此保固的獲利非常可觀,據估計,美國零售商提供保固服 務的年收入超過160億美元。





王先生來電 才知道 應該是週六 12日

紀念Russell Ackoff(1919-2009)十二月十二日(週六)



Cash crisis LMU criticised

The problem arose because the Higher Education Funding Council for England (HEFCE ) only provides universities with money for a student who sits all their exams at the end of the year.

LMU admitted it counted students as having completed the period if they moved into the next year, regardless of whether they had sat all exams.

Under the LMU's definition, just 3% of students failed to complete the year. Under the real definition the non-completion rate was 30%.

--- 公孚

時間:981125 (星期三)19:00--20:50
主講人:邱裕賓老師 元智大學管理研究所博士



「華人戴明學院」是鍾漢清先生從杜邦公司離職後所創辦,他將「戴明哲學的學習共同體 ,致力於淵博型智識系統的研究、推廣和運用。」作為其成立宗旨,為此投下許多心力從事戴明著作的翻譯與理念推廣工作,早已成為台灣戴明學的重鎮。


今年他舉辦2009年戴明博士紀念研習會,出版《轉型:紀念戴明博士2009----統計品管可靠性與新經濟學 》,由他自己親自主講,<從戴明學派的"四書五經"看轉型>,另邀請官生平教授講<統計製程品管 (SPC) >,簡英哲博士講<可靠性設計DFR (Design For Reliability)>,郭展先生講<失效模式(FMEA在緊固件熱處理製程上之應用>,為「華人戴明學院」留下一筆可貴的資產。

如今,鍾漢清先生有感於另一位在作業研究,系統思考與管理這一領域的先驅Russell Ackoff 教授(1919-2009)在上月二十九日去世。

準備在十二月十一日(週六) 1000-1600,於台北市新生南路三段882樓華人戴明學舉辦紀念,明年為他出版專書,他歡迎Russell Ackoff 教授有點道,



Reliability prediction

分類:〔工程技術〕 > 〔尚未分類〕
跟據近幾年跟蹤 recalls 之經驗 它沒什麼效果
讀 Deming 的 書 可以發現許多相關的片譬如說 無法作廠內測試來預測將來出廠的情況