「華人戴明學院」是戴明哲學的學習共同體 ,致力於淵博型智識系統的研究、推廣和運用。 The purpose of this blog is to advance the ideas and ideals of W. Edwards Deming.

2020年2月29日 星期六

Boeing admits it failed to test the Starliner spacecraft adequately before its maiden flight NASA 說 Boeing的Starliner 有嚴重軟體缺失;iPhone 11 Pro 射頻暴露測試超出FCC 規定

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Boeing's Starliner spacecraft was slated to begin flying NASA astronauts to the International Space Station this year. But now the program faces new questions about safety after a botched test flight in December.

The company cut a key test short and used faulty software, setbacks that led to a flawed mission.

The Boeing Starliner spacecraft shortly after it landed in White Sands, N.M. (Bill Ingalls/AP)By Christian Davenport Christian DavenportReporter covering the defense and space industriesEmailBioFollowFebruary 28, 2020 at 5:34 PM ESTBoeing acknowledged Friday that its procedures for testing the Starl...

WASHINGTONPOST.COM

Boeing admits it failed to test the Starliner spacecraft adequately before its maiden flight

www.space.com › boeing-starliner-test-flight-softwa...

Boeing's Starliner test flight had a 2nd critical software issue ...



15 時間前 - Boeing is considering another test flight for its CST-100 Starliner commercial crew spacecraft amid concerns from a NASA safety panel about its first flight. Boeing's Starliner spacecraft launched on Dec. 20, but was unable to ...


spacenews.com › nasa-safety-panel-calls-for-review...

NASA safety panel calls for reviews after second Starliner ...




1 日前 - A NASA safety panel seeks reviews of Boeing after a software problem during a CST-100 Starliner test flight that could have led to a “catastrophic” failure.





www.geekwire.com › starliner-software-shortcomin...

Starliner software issues spark NASA safety review of Boeing ...





6 時間前 - An assessment of what went wrong during the first uncrewed flight of Boeing's Starliner space taxi turned up so many breakdowns that NASA is ordering a comprehensive safety review.


---iPhone 11 Pro  射頻暴露測試radio frequency exposure test 超出FCC 規定
For a cellphone, the FCC’s threshold of safe exposure is 1.6 watts per kilogram. Penumbra’s test found that an iPhone 11 Pro emitted 3.8 W/kg.

2020年2月28日 星期五

Japan’s tsunami supply chain comeback. Just-in-time networks are very efficient but extremely fragile.

Just-in-time networks are very efficient but extremely fragile.


2011.9.15這篇沒提到的 更長遠的對於災區的投資 包括設新廠等努力.....


日本供應鏈的活力Japan’s tsunami supply chain comeback作者:東京大學教授喬治•奧爾科特, 愛丁堡大學商學院負責人尼克•奧利弗為英國《金融時報》撰稿

After the paralysis of the global supply chain caused by the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan in M​​arch, there have been the inevitable calls for a rethink of global, just-in-time supply systems. Some predicted that the disruption would last until the end of the year, if not longer. But just four months on, Japan's recovery is taking place with remarkable speed, in large part because of the unusual brand of co-operative capitalism that underpins the tight-knit and remarkably resilient Japanese business system.
在3月份日本那場毀滅性地震和海嘯導致全球供應鏈陷入癱瘓後,人們不由得發出呼籲:重新思考全球準時制(JIT)供應鏈系統。一些人曾預測,供應鏈中斷的局面將持續到今年年底,甚至更晚。然而,災難發生後僅4個月,日本就以令人矚目的速度開始了復甦。這很大程度上是因為日本獨特的合作資本主義為該國環環相扣、復原能力超強的商業體系提供了支撐。
July's figures revealed that Japan's industrial production had risen for the third month in a row, with auto manufacturers reviving especially strongly. Mitsubishi Electric also announced better than expected first-quarter profits, and has revised upwards its earnings estimates for this year. Other companies have responded strongly too: Hitachi, much of whose domestic production capacity is located in the area most affected, was almost fully operational by the end of March, while Hitachi Port, crippled by the disasters, reopened on April 3.
7月份數據顯示,日本工業產值連續第三個月實現增長,其中汽車製造業的複蘇尤為強勁。三菱電機(Mitsubishi Electric)公佈的第一季度營利數據好於預期,該企業還調高了今年的收益預估。其他企業的表現同樣強勁:日立(Hitachi)在本土的生產線大部分都位於受災最嚴重的地區,但到3月底,就已幾乎全面恢復運營,一度因受災而陷入癱瘓的日立港口也於4月3日重新開放。
Held in awe by many in the west in the 1980s, Japan's system has until recently fallen out of favour for being slow to adjust to changing macroeconomic conditions, resulting in the country's two lost decades. Yet the tsunami has actually revealed the system's capacity for rapid recovery – just as it did following the 1995 Kobe earthquake, and the 2007 Chuetsu earthquake.
上世紀80年代,日本的商業體系令西方國家許多人嘆為觀止,直到近些年,這一體系才漸漸失去了人們的青睞,因為它對不斷變化的宏觀經濟環境反應遲緩,導致日本出現了兩個“失去的十年”。然而,海嘯發生後,這一體系顯示出支持經濟迅速復甦的強大能力,正如1995年神戶地震和2007年新潟(Chuetsu)地震之後的情況一樣。
Many of the current supply problems are due to damage at a plant belonging to electronics group Renesas, in Hitachinaka. The plant, jointly owned by NEC, Hitachi and Mitsubishi Electric, produces a significant share of the world's automotive microcontroller chips. The parent firms have sent hundreds of staff to help with the recovery, but, more interestingly, Renesas's customers are helping out too, with Toyota, Honda and others dispatching staff to help with recovery efforts. At one point, there were nearly 3,000 non-Renesas employees at the plant, mostly engineers. As a result production restarted on June 1, much earlier than first anticipated. By late September production should be back to pre-quake levels.
目前供應方面依然存在的問題中,許多都是因為電子集團瑞薩(Renesas)旗下一家位於常陸那珂(Hitachinaka)的工廠嚴重受損。該工廠的股東還有日本電氣(NEC)、日立和三菱電機,全球相當一部分自動微控芯片都產自這裡。這些母公司派出了數百名員工協助恢復工作的進行,但更有趣的是,瑞薩的客戶們也伸出了援手——豐田(Toyota)、本田(Honda)和其他企業也派出人手來協助。該工廠一度有近3000名非瑞薩員工在幫忙,其中大部分是工程師。因此,工廠6月1日就恢復了生產,比最初的預計提前了許多。到9月底,其生產應該可以恢復地震前水平。
This pattern, in which usually fierce competitors have come quickly to each others' aid, has been repeated elsewhere. Take Hitachi Chemical, which has two factories at Namie, a short distance from the Fukushima nuclear station. One plant produces carbon brushes for heavy- duty electric motors, which are used in vital public infrastructure. Kazuyuki Tanaka, Hitachi Chemical's chief executive, has noted that restarting production was more important than revealing “some important parts of our knowhow to our competitors”. Here, as at Renesas, help has been offered, and accepted, without contracts and without discussion of financial arrangements.
平日里競爭激烈的對手迅速相互施以援手,這種情形在日本其它地方也很普遍。就拿日立化成工業(Hitachi Chemical)來說,它在距離福島第一核電站(Fukushima)不遠處的浪江町(Namie)有兩家工廠,其中一家生產用於重型電動機(用於必不可少的公共基礎設施建設)的碳刷。日立化成工業首席執行官田中一之(Kazuyuki Tanaka)就曾表示,恢復生產比“保護我們的重要技術不被洩露給競爭對手”更重要。這里和瑞薩工廠的情形一樣,在接到其他企業的援助並決定接受的整個過程中,沒有簽訂任何合同,也沒有人討論費用該如何分配。
There has of course been major disruption, despite the speedy recovery. Even a few weeks of lost production is too much for the global clients of major Japanese companies to bear. A range of strategies are therefore being developed to improve resilience, including greater diversification of production and new arrangements to transfer design and production information across manufacturing sites. These will apply to facilities within companies, but also now may include formal agreements with competitors to provide substitute facilities in the event of a future disaster.
儘管恢復速度很快,但生產必然受到了嚴重的阻斷。對於日本各大企業的全球客戶來說,這些企業哪怕停產幾週,造成的損失也讓它們難以承受。因此,人們正構想一系列戰略,以增強復原能力,其中包括提高生產分散程度,並為各個廠址間設計和生產信息的轉移做出一些新的安排。這些新策略將應用於企業內部的各個工廠,但如今也有可能推及至與競爭對手的正式協議——以便在未來發生災難時提供後備工廠。
In spite of this, and especially given the speed at which supply chains have bounced back, there is little sign that Japanese companies are planning to turn their backs on their traditional “just in time” manufacturing strategies, let alone leave Japan entirely. Professor ​​Takahiro Fujimoto of the University of Tokyo, an expert on supply chains and the automotive industry, admits that improving supply chain resilience must be a priority, but believes this can be done without “sacrificing competitiveness”.
儘管如此,尤其是考慮到供應鏈恢復的速度,沒有多少跡象表明日本企業打算拋棄它們傳統的準時制生產戰略,更不用說徹底搬離日本了。供應鍊及汽車製造業專家、東京大學(University of Tokyo)教授藤本隆宏(Takahiro Fujimoto)坦承,改善供應鏈的複原能力應放在重中之重,但他認為,這不需要“犧牲競爭力”就能實現。
The tsunami has graphically demonstrated how co-operative capitalism allows rapid mobilisation of resources and offers a hidden source of resilience to efficient but vulnerable supply chains. It now seems clear that the latest crisis has strengthened, not weakened, Japan's distinctive form of capitalism.
日本海嘯生動地說明了合作資本主義是如何快速調動資源、並為高效但脆弱的供應鏈提供復原力的秘密之源的。現在,有一點看起來很清楚:這場危機是增強而非削弱了日本獨特的資本主義模式。
George Olcott is a professor ​​at the research centre for advanced science and technology at the University of Tokyo. Nick Oliver is head of the University of Edinburgh Business School
喬治•奧爾科特(George Olcott)是東京大學尖端科學技術研究中心教授。尼克•奧利弗(Nick Oliver)是愛丁堡大學商學院(University of Edinburgh Business School)負責人。

譯者/吳蔚

VW 「柴油門」於對美國消費者的賠償額(153億美元);德國賠償金總額為8.3億歐元







賠償金總額為8.3億歐元,遠低於對美國消費者的賠償額(153億美元)

尾气排放造假丑闻爆发5年之后,大众汽车与德国消费者联合会达成赔偿和解。不过,赔偿金总额为8.3亿欧元,远低于对美国消费者的赔偿额(153亿美元)。

DW.COM

「柴油門」在德國達成和解 大眾汽車賠償8.3億歐元

2020年2月26日 星期三

A billion Wi-Fi devices suffer from a newly discovered security flaw


MIT Technology Review
9 小時 ·


More than a billion internet-connected devices—including the iPhone and Amazon's Echo—are affected by a security vulnerability that could allow hackers to spy on traffic sent over Wi-Fi.

More than a billion internet-connected devices—including Apple's iPhone and Amazon's Echo—are affected by a security vulnerability that could allow hackers to spy on t...

TECHNOLOGYREVIEW.COM

A billion Wi-Fi devices suffer from a newly discovered security flaw

波音737 MAX油箱內發現異物Boeing finds debris in fuel tanks of undelivered 737 Max jets

The FAA is mandating a new round of safety fixes before Boeing's 737 MAX jets can return to the air.
Boeing finds debris in fuel tanks of undelivered 737 Max jets https://wapo.st/2HCCNjK



彭博新聞社報導說,所涉及的異物或許是工人留下的工具或衣服。現在,約有400架飛機將被檢查。
在发生空难、被多国停飞后,美国飞机制造商波音公司的737 MAX又爆新问题:多架未交付的飞机的油箱内发现了异物。公司方面现正着手调查。

DW.COM

再爆問題!波音737 MAX油箱內發現異物

2020年2月25日 星期二

But experts are puzzling over the figures.感染、康復(recovered)等數字的意義和困境。switch to new methodology?湖北確診人數為何暴增?我的猜測;納入臨床診斷病例 .......A ray of hope in the coronavirus curve中國冠狀病毒新病例的下降趨勢...... (ECONOMIST.COM)

As Xi Jinping vows to restart China’s economy, a marked slowdown in reported new coronavirus cases is helping his cause. But experts are puzzling over the figures.



“You can’t send them home because they might infect others, but you can’t put them in hospital as resources are stretched,” a respiratory expert warns..






每個感染數字的意義都不同,無法追蹤其來源的,最恐怖:
2.21

A surge in coronavirus cases and deaths in Iran is raising concern because the outbreak can’t be traced directly back to China, the head of the World Health Organization said.




題為"新型冠狀病毒肺炎流行病學特徵分析"的這篇論文指出,在12月31日之前,中國全國已經有104人發病;到1月10日,又有653人發病;而到了1月20日,全國累計發病人數已經超過了6000人。


中國疾控中心披露12月底病例數已破百

中國疾控中心科學家最新論文中的統計圖表披露,早在12月31日,發病人數就已經超過了100人,至1月10日,病例已經擴散到了全國20個省區。統計數據還指出,1月10日前發病的患者死亡率高達15%。
(德國之聲中文網)題為" 新型冠狀病毒肺炎流行病學特徵分析 "的這篇論文,統計了2月11日前中國內地全部72314起病例,發表在《中華流行病學雜誌》 2月刊上,並由該雜誌社本週早些時候在其官方網站上全文刊登。文章指出,在12月31日之前,全國已經有104人發病;到1月10日,又有653人發病;而到了1月20日,全國累計發病人數已經超過了6000人。
而根據武漢市衛健委12月31日發布的公告,當時"已發現27例病例、其中7例病情嚴重","目前為止未發現明顯人傳人現象,未發現醫務人員感染"。該機構1月19日的疫情通報則稱,武漢市累計確診病例198例。而全國其他省區開始通報出現疫情,則要到1月20日之後。
不過,疾控中心的論文也指出,流行病學意義上的"發病日期"指的是患者自我報告的發燒或咳嗽開始日期,並非確診日期,也非實際感染日期。論文配發的一張配圖,也顯示出自述發病日期高峰(1月24日~1月28日)與確診報告日期的高峰(2月5日)有著大約10天的時間差。
死亡率會有多高?
值得注意的是,這篇論文還統計了不同時期病患的死亡率。數據顯示,截至2月11日,全部7.2萬起病例的粗死亡率為2.3%。但是,如果只看12月31日前發病的104名病患,就會發現他們中已經有15人死亡,死亡率高達14.4%;1月1日至1月10日間發病的653起病患中也已有102人不幸去世,死亡率亦達15.6%。1月11日之後發病的患者死亡率則逐步遞減。
不過,在論文的總結討論中,疾控中心的作者們依然在強調新冠病毒具有高度傳染性,"但總體粗病死率低"。
Illustration 2019 Novel Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2 (Reuters/CDC)
醫務人員患者多死亡率低
疾控中心統計了醫務人員的發病日期,指出在1月10日前就已經有20名醫務人員開始發病,到了1月20日該數字就已經突破了300,作者認為,醫務人員發病高峰出現在1月28日前後。不過,醫務人員患者的死亡率明顯低於其他人群,截至2月11日,千餘名患者中僅有5人死亡。
論文還注意到,粗病死率與患者的年齡呈正相關:40歲以下患者的病死率低於0.5%,而70~79歲年齡段的病死率高達8.0%,80歲以上患者的死亡率更是高達14.8%。此外,男性患者的死亡率(2.8%)也略高於女性(1.7%)。

  • 日期 21.02.2020
  • 作者 文山







Coronavirus Cases Seemed to Be Leveling Off. Not Anymore.

Coronavirus Cases Seemed to Be Leveling Off. Not Anymore.

By RONI CARYN RABIN
On Thursday, health officials in China reported more than 14,000 new cases in Hubei Province alone. A change in diagnostic criteria may be the reason.
13日 我的猜測:北京嚴控報告的方式失效/負擔不了/自顧不暇,只好承認地方醫生的診斷,不必凡案北京定奪:
21日,中國又改回原計數方法。





















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納入臨床診斷病例后,湖北單日新增確診病例飆升至14,840例
周四公布的官方數據顯示,在採用新的病例診斷分類后,新冠病毒疫情中心湖北省的新增確診病例數激增至前一天的近10倍,達到14,840例。
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中國含港澳地區確診病例已逼近6萬大關,而風暴中心的湖北省,這兩天確診病例暴增超過1萬4千例,死亡人數也增加超過240人。
湖北武漢肺炎單日爆增逾1.4萬確診
中國含港澳地區確診病例已逼近6萬大關,而風暴中心的湖北省,這兩天確診病例暴增超過1萬4千例,死亡人數也增加超過240人。
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A change in the diagnostic criteria meant doctors have broader discretion to determine if patients are infected. Patients could only be diagnosed by test kits previously.






https://www.cw.com.tw/article/article.action......
編輯或刪除

CW.COM.TW
一夕增加近15000人,湖北確診人數為何暴增?|天下雜誌
......中國為何放手讓確診人數暴增?中國國健委提出的解釋是,隨著對新型冠狀病毒肺炎認識的深入和診療經驗的積累,針對湖北省疫情特點,國家衛生健康委員會在湖北省的病例診斷分類中增加了「臨床診斷,以便患者能及早按照確診病例,接受規範治療,進一步提高救治成功率。
根據該方案,近期湖北省對既往疑似病例進行排查,為對診斷結果進行訂正,與全國其他省份對外公佈的病例診斷分類一致,從今天起,湖北省將臨床診斷病例數確診病例數進行公佈 。
因此湖北省2月12日的新增新冠肺炎病例,暴增1萬4840例,累計達4萬8206例(含臨床診斷病例1萬3332例)。
這使得全球確診數,迅速破6萬,跳升至60286人,死亡人數達到1367人。以此數字推估的致死率約2.2%。
2月11日新增確診跟疑似病例,同步減少降至11日內新低的樂觀景象,瞬間變調。

什麼樣的臨床診斷,讓人數大增?

臨床診斷是將電腦斷層掃描影像列為標準,不用再等病毒核酸檢測結果,擴大排查,電腦斷層檢查相對更快更容易普及。
確診的認定的確存在許多困難,假陰性或者無症狀的感染者可能都是我們看不見的海下冰山。龐大的感染人數,各國醫療特別是中國,都拉紅色警報,使得各種狀況更加混沌複雜。.....




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納入臨床診斷病例后,湖北單日新增確診病例飆升至14,840例
周四公布的官方數據顯示,在採用新的病例診斷分類后,新冠病毒疫情中心湖北省的新增確診病例數激增至前一天的近10倍,達到14,840例。
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作者


知道為何湖北以外的確診病例增長會連續6日下跌嗎?

答案是中共在2月6日修改了確診標準,將所有檢測結果為陽性但未發病的患者,一律不准列入「確診」,改將他們分流至「無症狀感染者」。霎時間篩走了一半個案,盤數自然夠晒靚仔,上升趨勢都變為下降。

又一次說明甚麼是「誰定義標準,誰就掌控現實」。



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Transmissions of the coronavirus are still occurring but at a slower rate, an indication that public-health authorities are making progress in their battle against the bug.











Daily chart
A ray of hope in the coronavirus curve

A downward trend in new cases in China suggests that the virus might have peaked

Graphic detail











HEADLINES ABOUT the new coronavirus that started in China are grim. More than 1,000 people have died, exceeding the toll from the SARS outbreak in 2003. Despite stringent controls on movement, there are 64,000 confirmed or suspected cases of infections in China. And it is spreading around the world. But there is some good news: the number of new cases reported daily in China has been on a downward trend since February 4th. That is to say, transmissions are still occurring but at a slower rate, an indication that public-health authorities are making progress in their battle against the bug.
Trying to forecast the trajectory of a new virus is complex, with scant initial information about how infectious it is. Several scientists made valiant attempts based on early data from China. Some warned that it might not peak until May, but that was before China implemented strict containment measures. The more pessimistic ones now look too gloomy. Cheng-Chih Hsu, a chemist at National Taiwan University, plugged different scenarios into a simple model for estimating the spread of epidemics (the incidence of daily infections typically resemble bell curves, with slightly fatter tails as transmissions peter out). The tally of confirmed cases so far closely fits a seemingly optimistic forecast by Zhong Nanshan, a Chinese respiratory expert, who said on January 28th that transmissions would peak within two weeks
(Google 翻譯,hc將人名修正)
每日圖表
冠狀病毒曲線上的希望
中國新病例的下降趨勢表明該病毒可能已經達到峰值

圖形細節
2020年2月12日
關於在中國開始的新型冠狀病毒的報導令人感到嚴峻。超過1000人死亡,超過了2003年SARS爆發造成的死亡人數。儘管對活動進行了嚴格控制,但在中國仍有64,000例確診或疑似感染病例。它正在世界範圍內傳播。但有一個好消息:自2月4日以來,中國每天報告的新病例數量一直呈下降趨勢。也就是說,傳播仍在發生,但速度較慢,這表明公共衛生當局在與該病菌的鬥爭中正在取得進展。

試圖預測新病毒的軌跡非常複雜,缺乏有關其傳染性的初步信息。幾位科學家根據來自中國的早期數據進行了英勇的嘗試。一些人警告說,它可能要到五月才能達到頂峰,但這是在中國實施嚴格的遏制措施之前。現在,較為悲觀的人看上去過於悲觀。國立台灣大學化學家許成智(sic 徐丞志  Cheng-Chih Hsu)將不同的情況插入到一個簡單的模型中,以估算流行病的傳播(日常感染的發生率通常類似於鍾(sic 鐘)形曲線,隨著傳播逐漸消失,尾巴會稍微發胖)。迄今為止,確診病例的統計數據與中國呼吸系統專家鐘 (sic 鍾) 南山的看似樂觀的預測相符。他在1月28日表示,傳播將在兩週內達到峰值



Transmissions of the coronavirus are still occurring but at a slower rate, an indication that public-health authorities are making progress in their battle against the bug

Don't peak too soon


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ECONOMIST.COM

Have cases of coronavirus peaked in China?

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