『台灣戴明圈：2008年東海戴明學者講座』 再續前緣X

新書：『台灣戴明圈：2008年東海戴明學者講座』

台灣戴明圈

── 2008年東海戴明學者講座

A Taiwanese Deming Circle (1964-2008)

目錄
致謝
序言（王晃三博士）7
開場白：故事、寓言（鍾漢清） 11
台灣戴明圈的故事（鍾漢清） 15
簡介戴明、威廉‧謝爾肯巴赫先生（鍾漢清） 23

第一部
導言：戴明到日本（鍾漢清） 35
戴明與台灣(簡記)（鍾漢清） 45
《1950 年戴明博士對日本高階經營者演講》 53
品管九講 譯者序言（劉振） 64
品管九講 品質管制與企業發展（小柳賢一） 67
日本品質管制之回顧（戴明） 74
日本的成就（戴明） 80

第二部
導言 （鍾漢清） 91
《戴明博士四日談》中文版導言（鍾漢清增修） 102
一首值得傳唱的史詩：《轉危為安》（鍾漢清） 109
運用戴明循環（鍾漢清） 118
鳥瞰 Lean/Six Sigma 運動 （1979-2008） （鍾漢清） 128
簡談實驗設計（鍾漢清） 153
由戴明理念談實驗設計之應用（蔡坤祥） 158
西式管理風格必須改弦更張（戴明） 163
戴明博士到 HP，團隊合作（鍾漢清） 172

第三部
2008 年東海戴明學者講座 185
主講人：威廉‧謝爾肯巴赫先生簡介 188
講座之一 193
講座之二 227
講座之三 252

尾聲 Epilog 2008 年戴明淵博知識系統之旅 275

附錄
第四部 東海…人物
播種季 286
東海大學和 英國 Essex 大學的點滴 288
從東海第七宿舍讀司馬賀先生談 30 年的緣份 294
慶祝東海 IE 創立四十年 鍾漢清 297
前進英國省錢大作戰 - Less $ can be more 300

難忘的師長
引言：從漢寶德老師談其他老師 305
陳其寬老師 310
高禩瑾院長 314
劉振老師 322
劉振老師紀念獎 Liu Cheng Award 328
紀念 吳玉印（Yuin Wu）老師 330
王錦堂老師 334
張忠樸先生 338

全世界最老牌的電子大廠之一，今年一百一十五歲的飛利浦，正在嘗試變「簡單」。

二○○四年九月，在全球六十多個國家設有據點的飛利浦，同步拿下用了快十年的口號「Let's make things better!」（讓我們做得更好！），換上「sense and simplicity」（合理與簡單）。

二○○三年，飛利浦宣布從「生產導向」轉為「行銷導向」。於是，飛利浦開始針對每年貢獻營收八成，二十五歲到四十五歲，高教育水準、高收入的族群，做全球訪談調查，了解在他們心中，究竟在意哪些事情。

調查結果顯示，大約有三成的家用網路產品遭到退貨，因為消費者不知道怎麼用。接近過半的消費者，曾經猶豫到底要不要買數位相機，因為他們覺得產品實在太複雜了。

三年前上任，飛利浦有史以來第一位行銷長芮安卓（Andrea Ragnetti）在《應變力》一書提及，二十年前，人們相信科技會讓世界更好，但二十年後，科技似乎讓生活愈來愈複雜。過多的資訊、不斷出現的新科技產品，使得消費者對「複雜」的科技產生恐懼感。

「因此，『簡單』成為消費者最嚮往的事，」芮安卓說。

飛利浦瑕疵電蚊燈召回率低 標檢局籲即停用 【11:45】

〔中央社〕飛利浦公司召回瑕疵電捕蚊燈商品。經濟部標準檢驗局指出，目前全台召回率僅13%；已要求業者採取更積極回收措施。標檢局提醒消費者，應立即停用相關商品，並儘速辦理退貨。

消費者於4月間使用飛利浦「PHILIPS愜意生活捕蚊燈」（型號：IST503）發生自燃事件，造成家中客廳裝潢和部分家具遭燒毀。標檢局指出，經查該型號商品係飛利浦公司已發布召回訊息的瑕疵商品。

經取樣測試，標檢局確認該商品固定電擊網的絕緣材質耐燃性不符合要求，並於1月間函請業者於1個月內回收該款商品。

據飛利浦公司向標檢局回報，截至目前為止，該款瑕疵電捕蚊燈商品已自經銷商端回收 611台，消費者端召回1141台，總回收及召回1752台，總回收及召回率約為13%。

鑑於召回率偏低，標檢局於 5月15日邀行政院消保官、飛利浦公司、各通路商、經銷商開會研商，要求業者再採取刊登平面媒體、製作召回公告DM、提供各通路商（賣場）公告、置放於電器販賣場所明顯處等更積極回收措施，以確保消費者權益。

標檢局同時提醒消費者，應立即檢視家中是否有該款捕蚊燈商品；若有則應立即停止使用，並儘速聯絡飛利浦公司服務專線（電話：0800-231099）辦理退貨。

Tea with us.

Jill /Peter/ HC

週二05.19 PM8:00, 在學長新生南路office,

台灣戴明圈 2008

小聚分享!

基正

昨天我請Peter熊先生將去年聚會比較難忘的事寫下來 今年出版 他說你的印度之旅令人印象深刻
他說這是你的演講之一寶
我們要問你有無文本文章


三頭六臂集 549
auditing 一下台大參考書處(和全館)的"思高聖經 "
(主要參考處無此書 其他多處 有)
主要找轉危為安OOC第一章引言
http://www.sbofmhk.org/tchi/Resources/sbofm_bible/sbofm_bible_content.php?book=25&chapter=38&check.x=6&check.y=6

第一篇上主的訓言（38-40:5）
第三十八章
上主發言		9:2 創 1:1 耶 10:12
38:1	上主由旋風中向約伯發言說：
38:2	用無知的話，使我的計劃*模糊不明的是誰？	42:3 友 8:12 依 40:13
38:3	你要像勇士束好你的腰，我要問你，請指教我！

*一般翻譯成"旨意"

****
1/1

論文題目:	Supplier quality awards and competitive advantage: An empirical test of Deming's chain reaction model (W. Edwards Deming)
論文編號:	3108832
論文作者:	Wayhan, Victor Brian
學位名稱:	PhD
畢業學校:	UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON (0087)
畢業年份:	2003
論文頁數:	151
指導教授:	Khumawala, Basheer
原始資料:	DAI-A 64/10, p. 3758, Apr 2004
主題分類:	BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, MANAGEMENT (0454);ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL (0546)
論文摘要:	Research findings concerning the relationship between Total Quality Management (TQM) and subsequent financial performance have often been contradictory and controversial; results most likely due to methodological limitations and differences between the studies. The current study seeks to remedy many of these limitations, while determining the nature of the relationship between an effective TQM program and subsequent financial performance. Is this relationship direct (with no intervening variables) or indirect (with one or more intervening variables)? These two major hypotheses (direct or indirect) were tested utilizing a sample of suppliers that have won U.S. supplier quality awards from major OEMs such as Ford, Chrysler, Toyota, Boeing, and Texas Instruments. The direct relationship was tested through a doubly (multivariate) repeated measures (longitudinal) research design, utilizing growth in revenue, growth in assets, gross profit, and return on assets as the financial performance dependent measures. The indirect relationship was tested utilizing a theoretical model proposed by Edwards Deming, commonly referred to as the Chain Reaction Model, which argues that TQM primarily impacts subsequent financial performance indirectly through related direct product cost reductions and productivity enhancements. This research found no statistically significant, direct relationship between an effective TQM program and subsequent financial performance, although it was shown how different, less robust data analysis techniques could have arrived at the opposite conclusion. Alternatively, this research provided empirical validation for Deming's Chain Reaction Model by demonstrating that TQM does impact subsequent financial performance through two intervening variables—direct product cost reductions and productivity enhancements. This finding, however, must be tempered by the fact that the TQM effect size was small (less than 5%). In addition, this research successfully tested several variants of Deming's model that provide enhance explanatory power over the original configuration—providing useful extensions of Deming's theoretical work. **** 濬哲 可翻譯PROFOUND KNOWLEDGE 幽深的。如：「濬壑」。書經˙舜典：「濬哲文明，溫恭允塞。」孔安國˙傳：「濬，深。」晉˙陸機˙日出東南隅行：「高臺多妖麗，濬房出清顏。」 By PHRED DVORAK For a man who sells the chip "brains" that power millions of TVs, cameras and other gadgets, Levy Gerzberg found himself surprisingly unplugged last fall. In just a few short weeks, business virtually stopped. He still marvels at the speed of the collapse. "I think about it today, and ask, 'Why did it happen so fast?' " says Mr. Gerzberg, CEO of chip designer Zoran Corp. The reason is now starting to become clear. The world's complex "just in time" manufacturing supply chains are making it increasingly tough for Zoran, and any other single link in the chain, to know what's going on just a few links away. Sometimes, Zoran itself doesn't even know how its own chips are used: One batch it thought was destined for DVD players instead turned up in digital picture frames. The recession has exposed a harsh side effect of the supply-chain system. Because modern industry rewards suppliers with the leanest inventories and fastest reaction times, when economic crisis struck, tech companies up and down the line contracted as sharply as possible in hopes of being the ones to survive. ***** Clarity Is Missing Link in Supply Chain The world's complex "just in time" manufacturing supply chains are making it tough for any single link in the chain to know what's going on just a few links away. View Full Image Phred Dvorak/The Wall Street Journal Quick technology cutbacks blindsided Angelo Grestoni's machine shop. Forced to guess at demand for their products in a plummeting market, everyone hit the brakes, hard. An examination of the electronics supply chain -- from retailers all the way back to makers of factory machinery -- shows that, at almost every stage, companies were flying blind as they cut. "We're still not sure what happened," says Angelo Grestoni, owner of a California machine shop that mills aluminum parts for chip-making machines. He is many steps away from Zoran on the chain, but his clients, too, evaporated around the same time. Today Mr. Grestoni employs 150 people, down from 600 just 18 months ago. The cumulative result: The tech pullback may have been overdone. In March, Best Buy Co. said it could have sold more electronics equipment in the three months ended Feb. 28, but its suppliers' deep cuts made it tough to keep shelves stocked. Suppliers "all decided to build a lot less," says Best Buy merchandizing chief Michael Vitelli. As the contraction raced down the supply chain, its effects became amplified. Rick Tsai, CEO of chip manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., has said that, in last year's final quarter, consumer purchases of electronics gear in the U.S. fell 8% from the prior year. But product shipments fell 10%, and shipments of the chips that go into the gear dropped 20%. The speed of the cuts are a big change from previous economic slumps. As recently as the early 2000s, companies compiled orders only monthly or quarterly; now they often do it every week. Their quicker reflexes this time kept their inventories from swelling dangerously, as happened last time, supply-chain experts say. This has consequences for economic recovery. Although U.S. gross domestic product fell 6.1%, on an annual basis, in the first quarter, nearly half of that was due to inventory reductions. Since consumer spending actually grew 2.2%, some factories might need to increase output, economists say. Production is starting to snap back, at least a little. Taiwan Semiconductor, or TSMC, in March boosted first-quarter earnings, and Zoran last month reported a jump in forecast orders. Still, "It's easier to turn the switch off than turn it back on," says David Pederson, Zoran's vice president of corporate marketing. Growth forecasts also get muddied because several of Zoran's customers may be optimistically competing for the same manufacturing contract, he says, and they can't all win it. Zoran is the kind of niche firm spawned by the widely dispersed global tech industry: It designs specialized video- and audio-processing chips for products such as cameras, TVs and cellphones. Its customers are mainly little-known Asian companies -- rent-a-factories, basically -- that manufacture the world's gizmos on behalf of brand-name giants like Toshiba Corp. Complexities in the global supply chain make it tough to divine broad market trends, says Randy Bane, an economist for Applied Materials Inc., which makes factory equipment used to build chips like Zoran's. Applied Materials had a loss of $133 million in its fiscal first quarter and a loss of $255 million in the second quarter, ended April 26 -- its first quarterly losses since 2003. It told employees to take four weeks of unpaid leave in the first half of this year, something it's never done before. Just a decade ago, the supply chain had far fewer links, Mr. Bane says. Chip sales were driven largely by personal computers, and just a handful of companies were bellwethers for the industry. Today, everything has a chip in it, dramatically multiplying the complexity. Behavior is "much more difficult to predict," he says. At one end of the information flow are retailers such as Best Buy. For the U.S. market, it sends orders to its suppliers once a week, along with private forecasts for the coming 52 weeks, based on sales at its 1,000 U.S. stores and broader economic data. Manufacturers scrutinize reports like these to decide what parts they need to order. The system is geared to respond quickly to changes in consumer behavior. But that puts risk on suppliers' shoulders. Take DVD players: Best Buy orders them about six weeks before it wants them on shelves. However, a player's guts may take twice that long to make -- forcing gadget makers and their suppliers further down the chain to guess at demand for the various pieces. Companies all along the supply chain live in mortal fear of piling up inventory. Profit margins are razor thin, and unsold inventory only loses value as newer technologies hit the market. Last fall, as the financial crisis struck Wall Street in full force, shoppers at Best Buy became an endangered species. By early October -- the deadline to place orders for the all-important Thanksgiving shopping season -- Mr. Vitelli, the merchandising chief, abandoned Best Buy's prior forecasts and slashed orders to electronics giants such as Japan's Toshiba and South Korea's Samsung Electronics Co. Demand was shrinking so rapidly, he says, he wasn't even sure how deeply to cut. "You actually had to pick a number with no knowledge whatsoever, because nobody knows anything," he recalls. For the three months ended Nov. 29, Best Buy's net income fell 77%. If Best Buy felt ambushed, its suppliers had even less insight into consumer demand. The slashing began. Two or three links down the chain, chip designer Zoran quickly felt the pain. Even before last fall's crisis hit, Zoran's customers were getting nervous, executives say. When Best Buy and other retailers cut their orders in October, it turned into a rout. "Everyone was looking at others, asking, 'How much money do they have? Can they survive?' " recalls Mr. Gerzberg, Zoran's CEO. Manufacturers cut deeply, then cut some more. Shipments of audio-visual products such as TVs and MP3 players fell 19% in November, 21% in December and 58% in January, the Consumer Electronics Association says. Zoran's fourth-quarter revenue fell 42%, the steepest drop since the company went public in 1995. "There was a lot of guessing going on," says Mr. Pederson of Zoran. "Everybody under-bet to a certain extent." The effects ricocheted across Asia. In Japan, the economy shrank at an annualized pace of 12.7% in the final three months of last year, the fastest drop in nearly 35 years. In China, many of Zoran's factory customers furloughed their workers, says Mr. Gerzberg. In recent months, some 20 million Chinese migrant workers have lost their jobs. Zoran doesn't actually make the chips it designs. Instead, it subcontracts with TSMC. Zoran slashed its chip orders -- as did many of TSMC's hundreds of other customers. TSMC's chip factories fell quiet, says Rick Cassidy, head of North American operations. In December, its plants ran at an estimated 35% of capacity, the lowest in at least eight years, according to market researcher iSuppli Corp. In subsequent months, TSMC asked around 20,000 of its workers to take as many as five days of unpaid leave a month. In January and February, TSMC said revenue fell 58% from a year earlier. And it said it will slash its 2009 purchases of factory equipment by some 20% from a year earlier. Across Taiwan, plunging demand for electronics led to record declines in Taiwanese industrial output. "Usually the guy at the rearmost end suffers the most," says Morris Chang, TSMC's chairman. In Santa Clara, Calif., those cuts came as a rude shock at the offices of Applied Materials, which builds factory equipment used to etch circuits and bake chemicals onto semiconductors. As recently as last summer, Applied's in-house economist, Mr. Bane, had expected second-half business to grow. Instead, it laid off 2,000 workers and asked all remaining 12,000 employees to take unpaid leaves. Mr. Bane gives presentations on what's happening in the market to some of Applied's immediate suppliers -- including Mr. Grestoni, the owner of the California machine-tool shop who's had to lay off hundreds of his employees. In fact, Applied is one of Mr. Grestoni's biggest customers. One of Mr. Grestoni's shops, D&H Manufacturing Co., won Applied Materials' supplier-excellence award for 2007 and 2008. The downturn is brutalizing Mr. Grestoni's business. He's now sitting on a year's supply of some products, rather than the typical three months. "We've got millions of dollars of inventory we can't sell, and we're paying storage fees on it," he says. One recent morning, Mr. Grestoni walked by empty rows and stilled machines at D&H. In one section stands six powerful milling machines in which sharp, whirling blades carve blocks of metal. Fifty people used to work there. Today, only one remains. He paused by a pile of aluminum blocks, each roughly the size of a microwave oven. One has large round holes milled out of the center, for wafer-processing chambers. "In October, we get an order to do six of these," he says. Then, the customer delayed the order. "You're looking at 60 grand here." Mr. Grestoni expects sales for his three machine shops this year to total less than $50 million, compared with $100 million in a typical year. There are a few hopeful signs. Best Buy has seen improved sales. Zoran on April 28 said it expects business to pick up in coming months, even though first-quarter sales fell 37%. And TSMC ended its factory furloughs in April. But Mr. Grestoni is still waiting. "We've probably hit the bottom," he says. "Now the question is, how long are we going to stay here." —Ian Johnson and Ting-I Tsai contributed to this article. Write to Phred Dvorak at phred.dvorak@wsj.com *****哈哈 這排名不用這樣緊張 在最新公布的國際競爭力排名中，台灣從去年的 1 3 名大幅衰退至 23 名，同時被大陸超越過去。 競爭力輸韓! 蕭：問題在品牌、通路 聯合新聞網 - ‎3小時之前‎ 針對國際洛桑學院調查，台灣競爭力排名下降10名，韓國上升4名。馬英九總統表示，韓國是因為沒有意識形態，對於有利的方向就大力投入，這才是台灣經濟發展未來要走的路。副總統蕭萬長說，台灣企業總體表現確實比韓國差，韓國去年整體經濟成長率是正2.2%，台灣只有0.1%， 馬 ... 台競爭力滑落 馬：虛心檢討 蕭：確實比南韓差 中時電子報 競爭力下滑總統:虛心檢討下次一定提升 自由時報 全球競爭力台灣掉10名總統：明年一定提升 中央廣播電台 新浪網 - 香港商报 共有 67 篇相關新聞 » 台灣競爭力退10名尹啟銘:研議改進措施 自由時報 - ‎6小時之前‎ 〔中央社〕經濟部長尹啟銘今天受訪時對近日瑞士洛桑管理學院將公布「2009年世界競爭力年鑑」，台灣退步10名做出回應。他強調，要先對細部項目研議後，再就退步項目研擬改進措施。 有媒體提早報導瑞士洛桑管理學院公布「2009年世界競爭力年鑑」排名，台灣從去年的第13名， ... IMD指標台灣退10名經長：針對退步項目求改進 中央廣播電台 共有 13 篇相關新聞 » 競爭力下滑十名 梁國源：結構性因素應一併檢討 鉅亨網 - ‎3小時之前‎ 2009年洛桑管理學院全球競爭力調查中，台灣的名次比去年下滑十名，成為二十三名，韓國則是上升四名，排名第二十七，對此，寶華綜合經濟研究院院長梁國源表示，由於韓國的出口表現不只是在金融海嘯時比台灣好，在景氣繁榮是也是如此，因此，政府應該一併探究原因，才有助於 ... 台灣國際競爭力一蹶不振？江丙坤：兩岸關係改善 就能互相拉抬 鉅亨網 - ‎20小時之前‎ 台灣在最新公布的國際競爭力排名中大幅衰退，同 時再度被中國大陸一舉超越，外界憂心台灣競爭力是否 因此一蹶不振？海基會董事長江丙坤表示，目前兩岸關 係已逐漸回溫，6 月更將開放陸資來台投資，這對台灣 經濟有很大助益，更能進一步帶動國際競爭力向上提升。 ... 台灣競爭力退10名 尹啟銘:研議改進措施 【12:05】 〔中央社〕經濟部長尹啟銘今天受訪時對近日瑞士洛桑管理學院將公布「2009年世界競爭力年鑑」，台灣退步10名做出回應。他強調，要先對細部項目研議後，再就退步項目研擬改進措施。 有媒體提早報導瑞士洛桑管理學院公布「2009年世界競爭力年鑑」排名，台灣從去年的第13名，退到今年的第23名，退步10名。 尹啟銘指出，經濟部還沒做過相關研究分析，由於這項競爭力評比是由各種細部指標構成，需要研究哪些細部指標是退步的，然後才能針對退步項目研議改進措施。 媒體詢問，退步主因是政府部門效能太差。尹啟銘說，「那要看是政府哪一個部門的效能太差？」 他強調，要做細部指標研究，且這項評比，每年都不斷調整中，細部指標有數百項之多；因此還是要等政府研究子指標後，再研擬改進措施。