| DATE | 2009/01/06 | |
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目前商務的變化極為快速，因此半年前的想法現在可能已經改變。但是，如果瓦格納的這種想法至今仍沒有改變的話，那麼要想讓瀕臨倒閉的GM復活，再度成為全球第一的汽車廠商將是非常困難的。
不得不退出虧損業務的經營判斷當然可以理解。但是對理察·瓦格納的話，至少筆者可以這樣解讀：“因為企業的最重要課題是股東的利益，所以即使拋棄客戶也要追求股東的利益”。但是，在閱讀了許多有關GM公司的報導後，筆者覺得這種觀點未必正確。
每每看到有關GM的報導，筆者都會想日本的頂級汽車廠商絕不會這樣想。股東當然是重要的。不過，日本頂級廠商並不實行“股東至上主義”。雖然企業是建立在所有利害關係者的均衡利益之上的，但首先應該追求的是“客戶滿意”。
比如，本田的企業理念是“站在全球的高度，為滿足客戶的需求生產性能優良、價格低廉的產品”，這便是常說的“本田哲學（philosophy）”。本 田公司裏沒有社長辦公室。被問及這一問題的本田社長福井威夫回答說：“這是因為社長辦公室與客戶利益完全沒有關係”，這番話給筆者留下了深刻的印象。
眾所周之，產品是為客戶生產的。但是，要得到客戶的認可並不是簡單的事情。正因為如此，更應該矢志不渝地踏實勤懇地工作，一絲不茍地進行改 進。豐田汽車工廠的正門守衛室的玻璃窗上，用紅色字體醒目地寫著“愚直”、“勤懇”的口號。這不僅向該工廠工作的每位員工，同時也向與該工廠合作的其他公 司的員工傳遞著豐田的精神。汽車並不是只由一個汽車廠商製造而成，而是由多個供應商共同完成的。因此，不只是本公司的員工，其他公司的員工也應該具有客戶 至上的觀念。為此，該工廠的負責人想出了這種“可視化”的方法。
豐田汽車2008年度的業績出現營業赤字之事已被報導。豐田正處於前所未有的低迷時期。雖然存在多種意見，但筆者認為在不對其他國家的汽車廠商產生不公平的前提下，美國政府對美國的“三巨頭”伸出援手也是迫不得已之事。
但是有一個條件！這就是要求“三巨頭”立下保證：“今後，從社長到員工都要為分佈在全球各地的客戶製造優良的汽車而努力”。在此基礎之上，還要公開具體的實施計劃，並對進展情況等進行嚴格地確認。
開發低燃耗汽車以及削減居高不下的固定費等，當然是“三巨頭”要做的事情，但是上述的根本條件無法滿蓄的話，“三巨頭”就不可能作為優秀的廠 商生存下去。雖然投入了難得的救助資金，但遺憾的是對美國國民而言，這些援助並沒有成為“有效的金錢”。“三巨頭”即使短期內獲得振興，可以預見最終還是 要輸給一直致力於客戶需求的日本廠商等其他國家的汽車廠商的。
這些對日本廠商來說已經是理所當然的事情，也是每個員工都清楚的事情。不過，單從傳遞到日本的報導來看，這種“簡單的事情”在美國並未能夠上 升為重要話題。筆者希望能夠親自把這一點告訴為美國經濟復甦而四處奔走、對三巨頭救助持積極態度的美國下任總統歐巴馬，雖然明知這是不可能的。只要三巨頭 滿足不了客戶至上的條件，筆者認為這對日本汽車廠商來說可是個“千載難逢的良機”。（記者：近岡 裕）
■日文原文
GM復活のための“簡単な”条件
Auto Slump Has Deep Impact on Japan
As goes Toyota Motor, so goes Japan.
In recent economic downturns, Japan's been able to lean on its auto industry to offset declines elsewhere. But a decade of success by the car makers -- particularly Toyota's challenge of General Motors' position as the world's biggest producer -- means that they've become Japan's largest export sector just in time for a protracted slump in global auto sales.
彭博社周二報導指出，在不景氣的影響下，日本車商聞名於世的及時生產系統（Just-In-Time）將有所調整，希望降低上游廠商破產所產生的影響，以免中斷汽車生產。美國的汽車研究中心指出，美國車商的不幸可能帶給供應商大衝擊，進而阻礙日商及其它外商在美生產汽車的事業。 豐田汽車北美子公司生產單位發出電子郵件表示，即使在通用和克萊斯勒獲紓困後，該公司仍繼續做偶發事件規劃。豐田指出，該公司希望美國車商取得的貸款將有助穩定供應商，但零組件產業依舊是一大隱憂。 北美豐田未來可望與更多家零組件廠商合作，並增加存貨，以便減輕美國上游廠商倒閉效應。北美豐田的供應商至少半數也和美國車商有合作關係。 根據顧問公司Grant Thornton的說法，美國汽車銷售創26年來新低迫使通用和克萊斯勒向政府求援，也讓北美至多三分之一零組件廠商遭遇破產風險。汽車業顧問公司CSM Worldwide的供應鏈分析師宮尾指出，往後幾個月，零組件廠商很有可能避免掉走上聲請破產保護一途，但半年後、一年後，此一風險勢必還存在。 JIT及時生產系統避免存貨囤積，採用JIT的車商傾向在需要零組件時貨才到，用以減少成本。分析師們表示，車商任何緊急措施都將花費不少錢，增加存貨意味著要租用倉庫存放零組件，而從海外買進零組件做補充將增加運費負擔。 本田汽車表示，該公司正討論美國某車商倒閉的各種可能後果，本田因應之道很可能包括增加存貨、使上游廠商數量擴大一倍，此外，本田擁有全球車款的優勢，比如Accord和喜美，因此美國可與其它地區分享零組件。 美國的汽車研究中心之副座希爾指出，日本車商最擔心的是生產特殊化零組件的二或三級較小型供應商，這些廠商是不被注意到的。
By Makiko Kitamura and Alan Ohnsman
Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co., Japan’s two largest carmakers, may modify their so-called “just-in-time” manufacturing system to avoid possible supplier bankruptcies disrupting production.
General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC are battling to restructure after winning $13.4 billion in emergency federal loans to keep them operating through March. Detroit’s woes could lead to a “supplier shock,” crippling U.S. production at Japanese and other foreign carmakers, according to the Center for Automotive Research.
“We continue contingency planning” even after the bailout, Mike Goss, a spokesman for Toyota’s North American manufacturing unit in Erlanger, Kentucky, said by e-mail. “We hope the loans provided to Detroit will also help to stabilize suppliers, but the very slow market remains a concern for all.”
The Japanese company may work with more partsmakers and increase inventories to mitigate the effects of a collapse among its U.S. suppliers, at least half of whom also work for Detroit automakers, Goss said. U.S. vehicle sales at a 26-year low have forced GM and Chrysler to seek government aid and left as many as a third of North American component-makers at risk of bankruptcy, according to consulting company Grant Thornton LLP.
“Partsmakers may have escaped bankruptcy filings for the next few months, but six months, a year from now, the risk is definitely still there,” said Takeshi Miyao, a Tokyo-based supply chain analyst at automotive consulting company CSM Worldwide.
1938 Adoption
Toyota fell 1 percent to 2,905 yen at the 11 a.m. close of Tokyo Stock Exchange trading. It has fallen 52 percent this year.
Plunging demand in the U.S., the world’s biggest auto market, contributed to Toyota on Dec. 22 forecasting its first operating loss since 1938. That was the same year the carmaker fully adopted the “just-in-time” model, according to its Web site. Under the system, companies avoid stocking inventories, preferring to take delivery of components as they are needed, to cut expenses.
Any emergency measure would be costly, analysts say. Increasing stockpiles would mean renting warehouse space to store parts and supplementing components from overseas would increase shipping costs.
“We’re considering many scenarios for possible outcomes” from a U.S. automaker’s collapse, said Yasuko Matsuura, a Tokyo- based spokeswoman at Honda Motor Co., Japan’s second-largest carmaker.
Measures may include increasing inventories and doubling sources to buy parts, Matsuura said. “We also have strength in having global models such as the Accord and Civic, so we can share parts from other regions for those models.”
‘Very Concerned’
“We’re very concerned,” said Fred Standish, a spokesman for Nissan Motor Co.’s North American unit in Franklin, Tennessee. “If one company goes into severe economic distress, it affects many others up and across the supply chain.”
About 60 percent of Nissan’s 350 suppliers in the U.S. also supply GM, Chrysler and Ford Motor Co., Standish said. He declined to comment on any contingency measures the company is taking to prevent disruptions to production.
GM, Chrysler and Ford plan to shutter about 59 factories over the next month. A small number of parts suppliers asked GM for payments in advance after the automaker said it would run out of money by month’s end without U.S. loans, according to people familiar with the matter.
Smaller Suppliers
The main concern for the Japanese carmakers is “the smaller, second- or third-tier suppliers that make specialized parts,” said economist Kim Hill, associate director of the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Michigan. “It’s these smaller companies under the radar.”
The risk from a collapse at a specialized partsmaker echoes the impact from a production halt at Riken Corp., Japan’s biggest piston-ring maker, last July after suffering damage from an earthquake. Riken’s shut-down forced eight of Japan’s 12 carmakers to temporarily suspend or cut manufacturing, leading to a total output reduction of at least 120,000 vehicles.
“If one maker is supplying 85 percent of the particular widget, you have a problem; if it’s 50-50, maybe not as much of a problem,” said Kurt Sanger, a Tokyo-based auto analyst at Deutsche Securities, adding that a Riken-like situation is possible “on a much broader scale.”
Toyota’s Goss said “there may be more risk” for models that are only built in the U.S., such as the Tundra pickup truck and Sequoia sport-utility vehicle. Its other models such as the Camry are also built overseas, and parts could be shipped in from outside the U.S., he said.
Strong Yen
The strong yen, however, is pressuring the Japanese carmakers to reduce exports from Japan and increase sourcing of components from the U.S. for vehicles built there, said Ashvin Chotai, managing director of Intelligence Automotive Asia Ltd., an automotive consulting company in London. The yen has gained 23 percent against the dollar this year, also eroding the value of overseas sales.
Changing manufacturing processes would add to companies’ costs, while they are already cutting earnings forecasts.
Toyota earlier this month lowered its estimate to a 150 billion yen operating loss in the year ending March, compared with a 600 billion yen profit, as a global recession and tighter credit cripples vehicle demand. Honda cut its profit forecast by 62 percent on Dec. 17. Nissan slashed its forecast by 53 percent in October.
While adopting a production system with greater inventories and reliance on imported parts will be costly and less efficient, the alternative would be worse, said Ed Kim, director of industry analysis for AutoPacific Inc. in Tustin, California.
“As messy as it may be from a logistical perspective, it’s better than not having any cars to build,” said Kim.
To contact the reporter on this story: Makiko Kitamura in Tokyo at mkitamura1@bloomberg.net; Alan Ohnsman in Los Angeles at aohnsman@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: December 29, 2008 21:22 EST Win, Win, Win, Win, Win ...
| （作者Thomas L. Friedman是紐約時報專欄作家） |
How many times do we have to see this play before we admit that it always ends the same way?
Which play? The one where gasoline prices go up, pressure rises for more fuel-efficient cars, then gasoline prices fall and the pressure for low-mileage vehicles vanishes, consumers stop buying those cars, the oil producers celebrate, we remain addicted to oil and prices gradually go up again, petro-dictators get rich, we lose. I’ve already seen this play three times in my life. Trust me: It always ends the same way — badly.
在承認結局一成不變之前，這齣戲碼我們到底要看幾次？
哪齣戲碼？主要情節包括，油價上漲，研發更節能車款的壓力增加；油價下跌，高耗油車款承受的壓力解除，消費者不再買省油車，產油國額手稱慶，我們用油仍然用得凶，油價再次攀升，握有石油的獨裁者累積鉅額財富，我們是最後的輸家。我這輩子已經目睹3次相同的戲碼。相信我，結局始終一樣：很糟糕。
So I could only cringe when reading this article from CNNMoney.com on Dec. 22: “After nearly a year of flagging sales, low gas prices and fat incentives are reigniting America’s taste for big vehicles. Trucks and S.U.V.’s will outsell cars in December ... something that hasn’t happened since February. Meanwhile, the forecast finds that sales of hybrid vehicles are expected to be way down.”
我在本月22日看到CNNMoney網站的這篇文章時，只能倒抽一口冷氣：「銷售衰退將近1年後，低油價與很好的優惠已經再度勾起美國人對大型汽車的胃口。12月的卡車與運動休旅車銷售量將超越汽車…這是2月至今所僅見。另一方面，混合車款的銷售量可能下降。」
願你有個美好的一天。在沙烏地阿拉伯，又是一天的開始。
Have a nice day. It’s morning again — in Saudi Arabia.
Of course, it’s a blessing that people who have been hammered by the economy are getting a break at the pump. But for our long-term health, getting re-addicted to oil and gas guzzlers is one of the dumbest things we could do.
對於一直飽受經濟衰退衝擊的人來說，油價下跌讓他們得以喘息，這當然是幸事。不過若為長久打算，再開始揮霍石油與天然氣顯然愚不可及。That is why I believe the second biggest decision Barack Obama has to make — the first is deciding the size of the stimulus — is whether to increase the federal gasoline tax or impose an economy-wide carbon tax. Best I can tell, the Obama team has no intention of doing either at this time. I understand why. Raising taxes in a recession is a no-no. But I’ve wracked my brain trying to think of ways to retool America around clean-power technologies without a price signal — i.e., a tax — and there are no effective ones. (Toughening energy-effiency regulations alone won’t do it.) Without a higher gas tax or carbon tax, Obama will lack the leverage to drive critical pieces of his foreign and domestic agendas.
這正是為什麼我認為，有待歐巴馬裁示的最重大決策是確定振興經濟方案的規模，其次是應否提高聯邦石油稅或廣徵碳稅。我看得出來，歐巴馬團隊對於兩稅將暫時 按兵不動。我可以理解原因。在經濟衰退時期加稅是兵家大忌。我絞盡腦汁試圖找出不必扯到錢（稅）也能推廣潔淨能源科技的辦法，結果找不到可行之道（僅強化 能源效率法規不足以濟事）。如果不加汽油稅或課徵碳稅，歐巴馬勢必缺少推動重要外交及內政政策所需的籌碼。How so? According to AAA, U.S. gasoline prices now average about $1.67 a gallon. Funny, that’s almost exactly what gas cost on the morning of Sept. 11, 2001. In the wake of 9/11, President Bush had the political space to impose a gasoline tax, a “Patriot Tax,” to weaken the very people who had funded 9/11 and to stimulate a U.S. renewable-energy industry. But Bush wimped out and would not impose a tax when prices were low or a floor price when they got high.
原因何在？目前的美國汽油售價大約每加侖1.67美元，幾乎與911當天上午的汽油價格相同。911事件發生後，布希總統獲得開徵新的汽油稅─另類「愛國 稅」的政治空間─據以削弱資助911攻擊的特定人士，並振興美國再生能源產業。但布希臨陣退卻，不願在油價降低時加稅，也不肯在油價提高時制訂底價。
Today’s financial crisis is Obama’s 9/11. The public is ready to be mobilized. Obama is coming in with enormous popularity. This is his best window of opportunity to impose a gas tax. And he could make it painless: offset the gas tax by lowering payroll taxes, or phase it in over two years at 10 cents a month. But if Obama, like Bush, wills the ends and not the means — wills a green economy without the price signals needed to change consumer behavior and drive innovation — he will fail.
當前的金融危機有如歐巴馬的911。美國人準備接受動員。歐巴馬即將挾其雄厚的民意後盾上台。這是他開徵汽油稅的天賜良機。他可以將衝擊減為零：以降低薪 資所得稅的手段抵銷，或以每個月遞增10美分，為期2年的方式為之。如果歐巴馬一如布希，只重結果而忽略手段，亦即只著重於建設綠色經濟，卻未輔以改變消 費者行為與促進創新所需的價格訊息傳遞，他終將失敗。
The two most important rules about energy innovation are: 1) Price matters — when prices go up people change their habits. 2) You need a systemic approach. It makes no sense for Congress to pump $13.4 billion into bailing out Detroit — and demand that the auto companies use this cash to make more fuel-efficient cars — and then do nothing to shape consumer behavior with a gas tax so more Americans will want to buy those cars. As long as gas is cheap, people will go out and buy used S.U.V.’s and Hummers.
There has to be a system that permanently changes consumer demand, which would permanently change what Detroit makes, which would attract more investment in battery technology to make electric cars, which would hugely help the expansion of the wind and solar industries — where the biggest drawback is the lack of batteries to store electrons when the wind isn’t blowing or the sun isn’t shining. A higher gas tax would drive all these systemic benefits.
我們必須建立一種足以徹底改變消費需求，徹底改變底特律車廠產品特色，為電動車的電池技術吸引更多資金，進而協助風力與太陽能發電產業大幅擴張的體系。後者的最大缺陷是，如果風力或日照不足，電池即無法蓄電。提高汽油稅必然有助於驅動這些系統化的好處
The same is true in geopolitics. A gas tax reduces gasoline demand and keeps dollars in America, dries up funding for terrorists and reduces the clout of Iran and Russia at a time when Obama will be looking for greater leverage against petro-dictatorships. It reduces our current account deficit, which strengthens the dollar. It reduces U.S. carbon emissions driving climate change, which means more global respect for America. And it increases the incentives for U.S. innovation on clean cars and clean-tech.
地緣政治也是如此。汽油稅足以降低消費者對汽油的需求，使美元留在美國，導致恐怖分子的資金逐漸乾涸，並在歐巴馬設法累積對付石油獨裁政權的更大籌碼時， 降低伊朗與俄羅斯的影響力。它也能降低我們的經常帳赤字與碳排放量，進而為我們爭取國際社會更多的尊重，還能強化美國研發潔淨車種與科技的誘因。Which one of these things wouldn’t we want? A gasoline tax “is not just win-win; it’s win, win, win, win, win,” says the Johns Hopkins author and foreign policy specialist Michael Mandelbaum. “A gasoline tax would do more for American prosperity and strength than any other measure Obama could propose.”
上述各點，我們哪個不想要？約翰霍普金斯大學的外交政策專家曼德爾鮑姆表示，汽油稅「不只是創造雙贏的工具，而是全盤皆贏的局面」。他說：「汽油稅為美國創造繁榮並厚植實力的效果遠大於歐巴馬能提出的任何手段。」I know it’s hard, but we have got to stop “taking off the table” the tool that would add leverage to everything we want to do at home and abroad. We’ve done that for three decades, and we know with absolute certainty how the play ends — with an America that is less innovative, less wealthy, less respected and less powerful.
 | |
本田社長福井威夫用“持續發展了100年的汽車市場目前已進入一個新的階段”（撤出F1時的新聞發佈會上所言）來形容目前的狀況。本田把經營資源集中到“ 混合動力車和小型車”上的決定，將改變今後大型車的銷售狀況暫時不會好轉的預測。這個判斷是否正確呢？本刊將繼續關注金融危機之中的汽車產業。
A Letter to the President of General Motors North America
Family Security Matters - Ridgewood,NJ,USA
Not being too complacent or arrogant to listen to Dr. W. Edwards Deming four decades ago when he taught that by adopting appropriate principles of management, organizations could increase quality and simultaneously reduce costs. Ever increased productivity through quality and intelligent planning. Treating vendors like strategic partners, rather than like "the enemy." Efficient front and back offices. Non-union environment. (Google News Alert for: w edwards deming)
Grave Forecast
Founded in 1937, Toyota has reported an operating profit every year since 1939. For the current fiscal year, it expects net income of 50 billion yen, helped by interest income and dividends from affiliates. That's less than a tenth of its previous forecast of a 550 billion yen profit, and a fraction of the 1.72 trillion yen it posted in the year-earlier period.
![[toyota ]](http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/P1-AO077C_TOYOT_NS_20081222164847.jpg)
Like all car makers, Toyota has slathered on incentives to try to boost sales, but such moves have had little impact. Dealers say tight credit and low consumer confidence are keeping buyers away from showrooms and threatening to hold down car sales in the coming year. John Bergstrom of Bergstrom Automotive, a dealer of Toyota and other makes in Wisconsin, said consumer confidence is so low "it's almost like they need permission to buy something."
關心美國車廠春秋
2007年豐田批准了這家工廠的組建。當時汽車銷量劇增﹐外國廠商都在拼命擴大生產﹐從美國汽車三巨頭手裡攫取市場份額。但是﹐隨著衰退和汽車銷量暴跌至危機水平﹐即便是財務狀況較好的汽車廠商也不得不撤退了。
預測公司IHS Global Insight的分析師麗貝卡•林德蘭德(Rebecca Lindland) 說﹐市場對豐田“翻臉”了﹐就像對三巨頭做的一樣。
通用汽車(General Motors)最近表示﹐明年第一季度將減產約25萬輛﹐約為北美地區組裝量的三成。
最 近二十年來﹐外國汽車製造商一直在擴大北美地區的生產。德國的寶馬汽車(BMW AG)計劃斥資7.5億美元擴建南卡羅來納州的一家工廠﹐不過由於汽車市場的不景氣﹐該公司最近裁減了數百名臨時工。韓國的起亞汽車(Kia Motors)正在喬治亞州建自己的第一家美國工廠﹐該公司週一表示廠子有望在一年後投產。
大眾汽車(Volkswagen AG)計劃於2011年下半年在田納西州新建一家工廠﹐組裝一款新轎車。該廠年生產能力為25萬輛﹐標志著在上世紀80年代末關閉了賓夕法尼亞州的一家工廠後﹐大眾汽車重返美國的汽車組裝業務。
豐 田在密西西比州的工廠位於圖珀洛附近﹐原本計劃生產豐田漢蘭達(Highlander)運動型多用途車(SUV)。今年春季油價飆升的時候﹐豐田將投產時 間從2009年底推遲到了2010年5月﹐之後又表示該廠將轉而生產普銳斯。普銳斯工廠建設的推遲意味著這款車仍將只在日本生產。
豐田表示﹐將完成廠房的建設﹐但是會暫停生產設備的安裝。該公司稱﹐現在已經投入了13億美元建設成本中的3億美元。豐田在一份聲明中表示﹐由於市場的不確定性﹐現在很難說工廠何時投產。
Kate Linebaugh
全球最大的汽车制造商-丰田公司，可能于明年4月撤换总裁。据朝日新闻周二报道，迄今担任公司副总裁的丰田章男有望接替现任总裁渡边捷昭的职务。渡边捷昭 将更多地从事顾问工作。现年52岁的丰田章男是公司创始人丰田喜一郎的孙子。他将是14年来首位掌握公司最高权力的家族成员。目前丰田公司没有对朝日新闻 的这一报道发表任何评论。
美國UAW工會契約二千頁
Google News Alert for: w edwards deming
Twenty-two poundsRome Sentinel - rome,NY,USA
... evidence that manufacturing techniques and management culture changes, recommended by W. Edwards Deming and adopted by Japanese auto manufacturers, ...
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