「華人戴明學院」是戴明哲學的學習共同體 ,致力於淵博型智識系統的研究、推廣和運用。 The purpose of this blog is to advance the ideas and ideals of W. Edwards Deming.

2008年12月2日 星期二

Big Three Pursuing U.S. Aid; UAW



BBC
美三汽車巨頭望政府援助340億美元
通用公司車廠外新車等待運輸
經濟危機下汽車銷量大減

被譽為“底特律三巨頭”的美國汽車製造商福特、通用和克萊斯勒向美國國會提交計劃,希望得到340億美元貸款。

三家公司在計劃書內都承諾會降低成本、減少負債以及投資開發更為環保的技術。

福特和通用公司的首席執行官還分別提出,如果國會批准貸款,他們願意將自己的年薪降低到1美元。

受到金融危機衝擊,福特、通用和克萊斯勒三家公司的銷售額都直線下降。

福特公司11月份的輕型車輛銷售額與去年同期相比下降了35%,通用公司下降41%,克萊斯勒則下降47%。

通用公司提出希望國會批准提供120億美元貸款,另外還希望國會批准在有必要的情況下追加60億美元貸款,以保證公司的生存。

福特希望得到90億美元貸款,但表示仍有希望不會有必要用到這筆錢。

克萊斯勒也表示需要70億美元貸款,否則公司生存堪虞。

降低成本

通用汽車公司表示,如果國會批准貸款,公司將在本月動用40億美元,並將在2011年開始還款。

通用公司承諾會繼續開發節能型汽車,維持投資額高達29億美元的替代燃料開發項目。

公司還承諾將降低成本、削減負債和高層薪金,並提出回在2012年前大幅降低員工數量(?)。

美國三大汽車巨頭老板
穆拉利(右)與通用以及克萊斯勒老板在國會
通用汽車公司首席執行官瓦格納提出願意把自己的年薪降低到1美元。

福特公司老板穆拉利耶也提出,如果福特也需要貸款,則他也願意自減薪水至1美元水平。

福特提出的削減成本方案包括出售五架公司的商務專機,以及包括瑞典沃爾沃汽車廠等在內的部分分支企業。

福特提出需要90億美元過橋貸款以完成耗資140億美元的新節能技術研究項目,但公司強調這只是防患於未然,福特未必需要動用這筆錢。

福特提出,預計公司在2011年將可扭虧為盈,或至少實現收支平衡。

美國汽車製造商並非唯一受到金融危機影響的汽車企業。日本本田公司11月份的銷售額較前一年降低32%,豐田則降低34%。 同時瑞典政府也已經表示即使福特無法找到買家接手沃爾沃公司,瑞典政府也不會將沃爾沃收歸國有。 與此同時,白宮對出巨資拯救汽車業仍持謹慎態度,白宮發言人佩裡諾表示,當局的政策是,只會把納稅人的錢投入到不會崩潰的企業中去。

WSJ

底特律三巨頭呈交具體重組計劃

2008年12月03日09:01
用汽車(General Motors)、克萊斯勒(Chrysler LLC)和福特汽車(Ford Motor)週二向國會提交了扭虧為盈計劃﹐暗示通用汽車的處境比人們此前認為的還要危險。

作為尋求政府救助的最新舉措之一﹐通用汽車申請總計180億美元的聯邦貸款﹐較其數週之前要求的貸款規模高出了60億美元﹔通用汽車還表示﹐該公司需要立即獲得40億美元注資才能將業務維持到年底。

通用汽車的緊迫請求引發了新的擔憂情緒﹐即該公司可能會被迫申請破產保護。據知情人士透露﹐全美汽車工人聯合會(UAW)的高層人士週二在底特律一個會上表示﹐如果不能盡快獲得政府資金﹐聖誕節之前通用汽車可能就會被迫申請破產保護。

美 國眾議院議長佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)週二晚間暗示﹐破產並不是陷入困境汽車製造商的好出路﹐破產重組所需要的漫長時間是其中原因之一。她還表示﹐國會是否出手救助將取決於對三 大汽車公司扭虧為盈計劃的評估。佩洛西說﹐民主黨領袖會協同布什政府、美國聯邦儲備委員會(Fed)以及美國政府問責局(GAO)共同評估這些扭虧計劃。

未 來幾天國會不太可能做出是否救助以及以何種方式救助的最終決定。眾議院多數黨領袖、馬里蘭州民主黨眾議員霍伊爾(Steny Hoyer)對汽車業呈交扭虧計劃表示歡迎﹐他還暗示接下來的聽證會將非常重要。霍伊爾說﹐我希望這些聽證會和今天提交的扭虧計劃能夠增強公眾對汽車業生 存能力的信心﹐使得國會能夠在下週採取行動。

通用汽車總裁亨德森(Frederick 'Fritz' Henderson)在與記者舉行的電話會議上表示﹐該公司沒有考慮破產﹐正集中精力從華盛頓獲取救助。他說﹐公司沒有B計劃。

就 在通用汽車和福特汽車提交救助申請的細節之際﹐汽車業又傳出了另一波不利消息﹕汽車製造商估計美國11月份新車銷量下滑了大約35%。11月經季節因素調 整後折合成年率的銷量(SAAR)為1,050萬輛﹐低於10月份的1,080萬輛﹐更遠遠低於行業內認為健康的1,600萬輛。

通用汽車的銷量下滑41%﹐至154,877輛﹔福特汽車的銷量下滑30.6%﹐至123,222輛。豐田汽車(Toyota Motor)的銷量下滑34%﹐至130,307輛﹔本田汽車(Honda Motor)銷量下滑31.6%﹐至76,233輛。

汽車製造商表示﹐信貸緊縮給汽車銷售造成了衝擊﹐因為很多過去符合條件的消費者現在都很難獲得購車貸款。通用汽車的管理人士表示﹐該公司銷量下滑可能也有消費者因擔心通用汽車會申請破產從而對其避而遠之的原因。

克萊斯勒週二下午表示﹐明年第一季度該公司手中現金將低於維持運轉所需的最低水平。克萊斯勒11月份的汽車銷量下滑了47%。

該公司希望12月31日前能從政府獲得70億美元貸款。克萊斯勒還表示﹐其首席執行長納德利(Robert Nardelli)已經接受1美元的年薪﹐而且不會接受任何醫療或其他福利。

美國三大汽車公司上個月請求國會給予其250億美元的低息貸款﹐以幫助它們度過這段美國經濟的低迷期以及汽車行業幾十年來最蕭條的階段。權威部門已經宣佈美國經濟正式進入衰退。

但國會議員們卻不能確信底特律三大汽車公司已經有了清晰的扭虧為盈計劃﹐因此告知它們12月2日重返國會聽證會時要作更詳細的陳述﹐說明自己打算怎樣使用納稅人給予的救助資金﹐以及打算如何進行重組以使自己能夠生存下去。

福 特汽車公司在其33頁的情況介紹中說﹐雖然它並不急需聯邦救助資金﹐但希望獲得90億美元的信貸額度﹐以備本輪衰退如果比預期的更長、程度更深時應急之 用。該公司預計自己會在2011年前扭虧為盈﹐並表示自己將加速開發新型混合動力和電池驅動汽車﹐減少汽車經銷商的數量﹐並重新調整工廠的設備﹐以便在美 國生產目前能夠盈利的小型轎車。

那些使用了先進技術的新車型將包括定於2010年面世的電池驅動商用麵包車﹐2011年面世的電池驅動轎車以及2012年前面世的混合動力轎車。

福特汽車公司首席執行長穆拉利(Alan Mulally)在乘坐福特Escape混合動力車前往華盛頓途中接受採訪時暗示﹐UAW可能也需要做出讓步﹐以幫助美國三大汽車公司恢復生機﹐並讓國會相信值得對這些公司施以援手。

他說﹐為使美國本土的汽車工業保持競爭力﹐UAW會員當前所簽勞動合同的所有內容都應該重新評估。

福特汽車的狀況大體上強於通用汽車﹐因為該公司在2006年將自己幾乎所有的資產都抵押了出去﹐因此早在信貸市場收緊之前就籌集了180億美元資金。其結果是﹐福特用於抵御市場衝擊的資金比通用要豐厚。

通用汽車首席執行長瓦格納上個月在國會作證時說﹐如果該公司得不到聯邦貸款﹐那麼在當選總統奧巴馬(Barack Obama)明年1月就職前它的資金就會告罄。瓦格納當時說通用汽車需要100億至120億美元資金。

通用汽車總裁亨德森在週二的電話會議上說﹐該公司正在尋求獲得120億美元貸款外加60億美元信貸額度。作為回報﹐通用汽車願意給予納稅人購買該公司股票的認股權證﹐讓納稅人在該公司債權人排序中處於優先位置﹐並承諾會在2012年左右向納稅人償還貸款。

他表示﹐通用汽車相信自己的北美業務能在2012年前達到盈虧平衡。

通 用汽車計劃從本週開始與持有其債券的人和UAW展開談判﹐以圖將自己的債務負擔削減300億美元﹐即一半左右。它提出的建議將包括允許其債券的投資者將債 券轉換為該公司股票﹐並重組該公司欠UAW一個醫療保健信託基金的債務﹐該基金按計劃將從2010年起向通用汽車的退休員工支付福利金。

亨德森承認﹐這一重組公司資產負債表的努力實際上就是一次法庭外破產重組。

通用汽車對國會表示﹐為了實現業務瘦身﹐該公司計劃出售其薩博(SAAB)分部﹐有可能將其Saturn品牌出售或合併﹐並將其車型從目前的60種縮減為40種。

亨德森說﹐通用汽車龐大製造業務的成本水平在2012年前將降至與競爭對手豐田汽車(Toyota)一致的水平。為了達到或超額完成這一目標﹐通用將繼續裁員、縮減結構性成本並努力聘用成本較低的工人。

John D. Stoll / Matthew Dolan




紐約時報

Pursuing U.S. Aid, G.M. Accepts Need for Drastic Cuts


Published: December 2, 2008

WASHINGTON — General Motors, increasingly desperate for a federal bailout to stave off financial collapse, told Congress on Tuesday that it was willing to drastically shrink every aspect of its operations to ensure its long-term survival.

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On the same day that the industry reported its worst sales month in 26 years, the three Detroit automakers delivered new business plans to lawmakers in the hope of winning support for $34 billion in federal loans.

While the timing was coincidental, the dismal November sales report underscored the perilous financial condition of G.M., the Ford Motor Company and Chrysler.

Their combined loan request was substantially higher than the $25 billion that the three companies had initially hoped to get from Congress two weeks ago.

The House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, said on Tuesday that she had spoken with President Bush by phone on Monday about the need to help the auto industry and that she believed some sort of rescue would be provided, either legislatively or by the Bush administration.

“I think it’s pretty clear that bankruptcy is not an option,” Ms. Pelosi said. But she said that the companies’ revamping plans must first pass muster among skeptical lawmakers who sent executives of the Big Three home from Washington empty-handed last month.

But G.M., the world’s largest automaker for decades, said Tuesday that it was in such dire straits that it would deeply cut jobs, factories, brands and executive pay as part of its plea to get $12 billion in federal loans and an additional $6 billion line of credit. G.M. also promised that it could be competitive on labor costs with Toyota by 2012.

G.M.’s president, Frederick A. Henderson, said the company would be insolvent if it did not receive federal assistance, including an infusion of $4 billion in cash before the end of the year.

“Absent support, frankly the company simply can’t fund its operations,” Mr. Henderson said in a call with reporters.

Chrysler, the smallest of the Detroit companies, is in similar difficulty, and asked Congress for a $7 billion loan before the end of December to ward off a potential bankruptcy.

Ford said in its plan that it could survive through 2009 with its current cash levels and by tapping its credit line with private banks, and that it could return to profitability by 2011. Even though it is better prepared for the downturn, Ford said it wanted $9 billion in loans to draw upon if necessary.

Ford’s chief executive, Alan R. Mulally, said the prospect of a failure of G.M. would cascade through the entire domestic auto industry and put millions of jobs at risk.

“We are very, very concerned, and that’s why we went with G.M. and Chrysler to Congress even though we think we have sufficient liquidity,” he said in an interview.

Mr. Mulally will appear at Congressional hearings Thursday and Friday in Washington along with Rick Wagoner, G.M.’s chairman, and Robert L. Nardelli, Chrysler’s chairman.

Together, they will try to persuade lawmakers to act quickly on the loan requests at a special lame-duck session of Congress next week.

There is only a narrow window for Congress to settle on any aid package for the automakers. Democratic leaders have said that they will not let the debate become a prolonged procedural fight, and they have little interest in keeping lawmakers in town past next Friday.

Senior Democratic aides say that if a deal cannot be sealed by then, they have little choice but to wait until after the new Congress is sworn in and, if there are still disagreements with the Bush administration, until after Barack Obama’s inauguration.

Congressional leaders were still reviewing the plans Tuesday. Ms. Pelosi said the companies had clear benchmarks that they needed to meet.

“We want to see a commitment to the future,” she said. “We want to see a restructuring of the approach, that they have a new business model, a new business plan. There has to be compensation reform.”

The White House so far has resisted calls for any new taxpayer aid for the automobile industry but instead has pushed for Congressional action to speed up $25 billion in federally subsidized loans that were authorized in an energy bill last year to encourage advanced fuel efficiency.

But in an apparent hint of flexibility in the Bush administration’s stance, Tony Fratto, the deputy White House press secretary, said on Tuesday that the White House would examine the proposals from the automakers.

“We’ll want to take a look at their plans in detail and see if they meet a credible test for viability,” Mr. Fratto said. “We’re pleased to see that everyone is now on board with what we’ve been saying for some time — that a credible plan for financial viability is necessary if we’re even to consider taxpayer assistance.”

The revelation that G.M. is on the verge of running out of cash will lend new urgency to the discussions.

While Mr. Henderson declined to say whether G.M. would file for bankruptcy protection if the loans were not approved, he made it clear that in a few weeks’ time, the automaker would fall below the minimum levels of cash it needed to operate.

“The first $4 billion is crucial,” he said. “We wouldn’t have asked for the $4 billion if we didn’t need it.”

To make its case for the loans, G.M. said it would make top-to-bottom cuts in its money-losing North American operations.

G.M. said it planned to focus on four core brands — Chevrolet, Cadillac, Buick and GMC — and sell, eliminate or consolidate the Saturn, Saab, Hummer and Pontiac brands.

Despite having downsized its operations in the last three years, G.M. said it would cut more than 20 percent of its remaining jobs, shut nine factories, seek to renegotiate the terms of $66 billion in debt, and push to reopen contract talks with the United Automobile Workers to reduce labor costs.

The cutbacks will extend into the executive ranks as well. Mr. Wagoner and G.M.’s board members will reduce their compensation to $1 in 2009, and the company will sell its corporate jets. Despite widespread speculation about Mr. Wagoner’s job security, his board gave him another vote of support on Tuesday.

Mr. Wagoner is scheduled to drive to Washington in a Chevrolet Malibu hybrid vehicle, a concession to criticism from lawmakers who chided the Detroit executives for flying on private aircraft to last month’s hearings.

Mr. Mulally was en route to Washington on Tuesday in a Ford Escape hybrid, and Mr. Nardelli was set to leave drive in one of Chrysler’s hybrid S.U.V.’s.

The criticism from Congress about jet travel and big executive paychecks hit home, Mr. Mulally said during a telephone interview from the road, as he was traveling through the state of Ohio.

“Its all part of a learning experience for me,” he said. “I think it’s really important that I drive to Washington to show that Ford gets what Congress is saying.”

In their companies’ plans, both Mr. Mulally and Mr. Nardelli said they would take $1-a-year salaries if the loan packages were approved. Ford also said it would sell off its corporate aircraft.

In its plan, G.M. acknowledged “that it had made mistakes in the past,” but said its revamping costs since 2006 had consumed “a substantial portion of its resources.”

Still, the company said it would have been able to survive on its own if not for the continued deterioration of the United States vehicle market, because of the weakening economy and tight credit, which has made it difficult for consumers who do wander into dealerships to get loans.

“The company would not require government assistance were it not for the drastic collapse of the U.S. economy which has devastated the company’s current revenues and liquidity,” G.M. said.

G.M. said its plan would create a “new General Motors,” that will be significantly smaller and more competitive.

The company said it would sell off its Hummer and Saab brands, shrink its Pontiac brand into a niche vehicle division, and explore opportunities to sell, close or consolidate the Saturn brand that — when it was started in the 1980s — was supposed to be G.M.’s answer to the smaller, fuel-efficient cars sold by Japanese competitors.

G.M. also said it planned to reduce the number of salaried and hourly workers in the United States workers from 96,000 currently, to 65,000 to 75,000 by 2012. It will also reduce its North American factories from 47 to 36, and its dealers from 6,450 and 4,700.

While it moves to downsize its operations, G.M. is setting up tough negotiations ahead with its bondholders and the U.A.W.

Mr. Henderson said that G.M. would try to negotiate a reduction in its debt from $66 billion, to about $35 billion. While he would not elaborate, the company was expected to ask bondholders to take equity in exchange for reducing their payout on long-term bonds.

G.M. will also seek to cut its labor costs by reopening its contract with the U.A.W. Possible cost cuts in the contract include eliminating job security provisions, including the so-called jobs bank that pays idled workers when their plants close.

The union’s president, Ron Gettelfinger, is scheduled to meet Wednesday with top U.A.W. officials in Detroit to consider how to negotiate the concessions that G.M. says it needs to survive.

Both Ford and Chrysler will likely want similar concessions from the union.

Mr. Gettelfinger has said he is willing to go back to the bargaining table to help the companies survive the economic downturn.

In its request for $7 billion in loans, Chrysler said it would continue to cut costs through negotiations with its suppliers and unions. The company, which is privately owned by Cerberus Capital Management, expects to reduce its structural costs by another $4 billion next year.

In their plans, all three companies said they would accelerate their timetables to make more fuel-efficient vehicles, with Ford saying for the first time that it would bring out all-electric models within two years.

Nick Bunkley contributed reporting from Detroit, and David M. Herszenhorn from Washington.



WSJ

看國會如何扼殺底特律

2008年12月03日11:31
果底特律汽車三巨頭聽從眾議院議長佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)和參議院多數黨領袖里德(Harry Reid)的指示﹐他們將在週二公佈“讓行業恢復活力”的“令人信服”的計劃。

但實際上三巨頭向國會提交任何“令人信服”的計劃的可能性微乎其微。要讓底特律浴火重生﹐就必需一場激烈、嚴苛的改革﹐而無論是底特律還是華盛頓實際上都對此沒有興趣。

過去幾個月裡的慷慨陳詞都是圍繞著保護工人和振興美國汽車業的主題展開的。

但令人悲哀的現實是﹐要想建立充滿活力的汽車業﹐就要解雇工人和關閉過剩產能。

這是底特律和華盛頓都不想面對的現實。但他們遲早都要面對。

為了獲得聯邦救助資金中的第一筆250億美元的撥款﹐底特律汽車巨頭需要有關其未來的令人信服的方案。

但如果這個方案需要削減數以萬計的工作崗位﹐關閉工廠、撕毀同全美汽車工人聯合會(UAW)的協議﹐以及推遲國會設定的汽車燃油標準呢?

國會對這樣一個救助方案會做何感想?

以通用汽車(General Motors)為例。對該公司唯一可行的商業計劃是大刀闊斧地重組。這也是德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)汽車業分析師羅德•拉奇(Rod Lache)預想的結果。

拉奇預計﹐到2010年時﹐通用汽車的品牌將從8個減少到4個。至少有5家大型組裝廠將會關閉。通用汽車12萬臨時和全職工人中還要有三分之一將失去工作。

通用汽車的國內市場份額將從22%降至17%。隨著超過400億美元的無擔保債券將轉換為股票﹐通用汽車的資產還將縮水。

那時﹐也只有到那時﹐通用汽車才會有競爭力並獲利。或許吧。

這應該是適合通用汽車的可行的計劃。但通用汽車週二向國會提交這樣一份計劃的可能性有多大呢?

如果它這樣做﹐全美汽車工人聯合會或華盛頓的政治家讚成這項計劃的可能性有多大?幾乎是零。

看看通用汽車的6,600家經銷商網絡吧。這相當於每個國會選區平均有15家經銷商。但據美林(Merrill Lynch)稱﹐通用汽車應該只保留2,000家經銷商。

這意味著﹐平均每位國會議員的選區中將有11家經銷商和總計500個職位消失。

三巨頭在起草重組計劃時可能會行動遲緩﹐這並不奇怪。他們意識到﹐要分得一杯羹﹐頭等大事是讓國會滿意。而讓國會滿意意味著保住崗位﹐而不是裁員。

所有這些都是本週將不可避免地產生經典的華盛頓妥協的原因。

由於三巨頭的CEO在公司專機和過於慷慨的CEO薪酬等基本不相干的問題上受到指責﹐可以料到﹐各方都將有一番慷慨陳詞。

有關底特律汽車公司的商業計劃以及其是否“令人信服”﹐可能還會爆發一些表面上的爭論。

但經過來來往往的多個回合後﹐三巨頭的商業計劃將被斷定“足以令人信服”﹐從而獲得250億美元。

然後這個爛攤子就會交給1月下旬上任的奧巴馬總統和新一屆美國國會。

到那時﹐經濟和底特律的情況可能會變得非常糟糕﹐以至於華盛頓決定不再把錢投到無底洞中。然後三巨頭或許將不可避免地走向破產之路。

Evan Newmark

UAW Concessions Are Critical to GM's Survival

To avoid bankruptcy, GM needs federal money—and a guarantee that the UAW will accept a weaker health-care plan


General Motors (GM) is in a real catch-22. The company has a credible plan to get government funding and transform the company. The problem is that the fastest way to make some of those changes would be a bankruptcy filing that could also ruin it.

For GM to really compete, the company needs to greatly reduce its debt burden (BusinessWeek.com, 11/25/08) and long-term health-care costs. Together, interest payments and retiree medical costs add up to roughly $8 billion a year in cash.

Bankruptcy Risks and Rewards

In a bankruptcy, GM could force the union and its retirees to accept less expensive health-care plans, which would slash its $47 billion long-term medical liability. Creditors would also take a hit. In court, GM could drop its debt burden of $42 billion by half or maybe less.

Outside of bankruptcy, it all has to be negotiated. It's no slam dunk that creditors will take a deep discount on their bonds and accept equity in the company. "Unless you have the power of the bankruptcy court, the union and creditors don't have to give anything," says Maryann N. Keller, an independent auto analyst who is on the boards of Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group (DTG) and car dealer chain Lithia Motors (LAD).

But going into bankruptcy poses the huge risk that consumers will simply shun GM's cars. Then revenue falls so fast that even court protection won't be enough. "I firmly believe that bankruptcy would be a disaster," says George M. C. Fisher, the lead director on GM's board. "You can't restructure fast enough to handle dramatic drops in market share."

Signs say that Fisher, a senior adviser at buyout firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, is right. Already GM has seen its sales drop at a rate of more than 40% for the last two months, which is a steeper decline than most other carmakers have endured. Says HIS Global Insight analyst John Wolkonowicz: "The bad press is already hurting sales."

That's why it will be vital that all of the parties involved put aside self-interest and take big concessions.

Reducing Debt

Fisher said in an interview that GM already is working on a plan to get creditors to take a haircut on their debt holdings. In the GM's plan filed with Congress on Dec. 2, the company calls for reducing its total debt and long-term liabilities from $63 billion to $30 billion. That's essential to reducing further calls on its cash and reducing the annual $3 billion GM currently pays in interest.

GM wants to convert some of that debt to equity, which forces bondholders to gamble on a GM recovery by taking stock. But even Fisher, who calls himself an optimist, says it won't be easy to do. "That is a big job and has yet to be done," he said. "There's no silver bullet. It will be a lot of work."

But creditors may prefer to hold their bonds and gamble that they will do better than taking stock. Or they could even see if they can get a better deal in bankruptcy court. Very little of GM's debt is secured, so unsecured creditors will have a real voice in bankruptcy proceedings, says Keller.


UAW "modifications"

Getting the union to budge might be easier. United Auto Workers' President Ron Gettelfinger said on Dec. 3 that the union is willing to make other concessions. Health care may have to be one of them, but Gettelfinger declines to say what GM and the union will be negotiating.

Last year, the UAW agreed to take over medical benefits in 2010 (BusinessWeek.com, 9/26/07). GM and the other automakers will give the union enough cash to cover 68% of the liability, which in GM's case is $32 billion. That will start an independent Voluntary Employee Benefits Assn., or VEBA, which the union will use to cover medical plans for the workers.

GM has already set aside a big chunk of the money, but has to give $7 billion in early 2010. Gettelfinger says he will let GM, Ford Motor (F), and Chrysler defer those payments. But they are still going to come due.

One solution is for union workers to accept a weaker health-care plan. Right now, UAW workers and retirees have a great plan. They pay in premiums and co-pays about 5% of their annual medical costs, according to the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich. GM picks up the rest. Union workers in other industries pay about 30% of their costs.

If the UAW accepted a greater share of the costs, GM's long-term liability (that $47 billion) would shrink. As a result, GM, Ford, and Chrysler would be required to put less money into the VEBA trusts. It would work the same way as reducing long-term debt payments.

But the UAW has to play ball. Gettelfinger didn't say he would make bigger health-care concessions. But he indicated a willingness to alter the UAW's contract. "We will immediately engage our bargaining committees to review our agreements," Gettelfinger told the press on Dec. 3. "We will consider modifications."

To really make GM competitive, the union may have to consider some bigger moves than it has already made. Fisher says the union appears game. "I don't intend to be an apologist for the union, but in the past couple of years the union has worked pretty well with management," Fisher said. "The world has changed. Now we and they have to make sacrifices. Everything is on the table."

A Bridge to Solvency

Fisher also said that even if there is a bridge loan from Congress, the UAW, GM, and other constituents may have to revisit the plan to keep the company's cash position moving toward break-even should the car market turn even more sour.

One thing is certain: GM needs a bridge loan that gets the company at least into late January when the new Administration gets into the White House. President-elect Barack Obama has said he wants to help Detroit, and there is a widespread feeling among members of both parties that the issue should wait until he assumes office. That would give Congress time to draft a response more thoughtful than what would come out of a rushed, lame-duck session. Says Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.): "Let's get a small amount of money needed for transition to get the companies into the New Year, and then we can build a structure of oversight over the larger necessary package."

It appears likely that Congress will give GM and Chrysler enough money to make it until the inauguration. Then the new President could use Treasury funds—instead of the Energy Dept. money earmarked for fuel-economy improvements—to fund a long-term lending plan.

For GM's sake, something close to that has to happen. Otherwise, it's bankruptcy. GM doesn't have a plan B to get the company into next year. "If we don't get help immediately," Fisher says, "there won't be much left for the Obama Administration to work with."




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