Geared for happiness (by Clare Crawford-Mason and Robert Mason )

MASON/MASON: Geared for happiness

Clare Crawford-Mason and Robert Mason
Sunday, November 30, 2008

COMMENTARY:

A surprising and ultimately happy ending to the controversial auto industry bailout may be possible.

A positive outcome requires the proven management ideas of a former U.S. Census Bureau employee, W. Edwards Deming. The current discussion about bankruptcy reorganization, curbs on executive compensation and payment of dividends - even replacement of top management and director - won't save the carmakers or help America.

The Detroit Three will soon run through a cash infusion because they are not competitive in the longer run even if relieved of their pension liabilities and union contracts. American carmakers need help not only to build the right cars but also to build cars the right way.

Toyota and other Japanese export companies credit Dr. Deming with teaching them "to work smarter, not harder."

"Now more than ever, we need to remember Deming's teachings: simply put, quality first and follow through with the honest practice of developing quality products and quality people," is how Shoichiro Toyoda, chairman and former president of Toyota, explained it. Translated: make products of continually improving quality and everything else - increasing market share, cost reductions, and growing profits - will follow.

Ironically, Toyota's management philosophy has deep American roots. Dr. Deming, who died in 1993, lived quietly on Butterworth Street N.W. in Washington, D.C., for more than 50 years.

He began to develop his management ideas as a boy on the Wyoming frontier in the early 1900s as he observed the benefits of continual improvement of farming practices taught to his neighbors by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's extension service. This government-sponsored education in best farming practices allowed America to become the world's leading producer of food and fiber and was the basis of our successful economy. Deming would later speak of the cooperation among the townspeople at barn-raisings and quilting bees rather than the Hollywood myth of loner cowboys shooting each other and Indians to settle the West.

Deming liked to tell how the Great Western Sugar Com. would take newspaper ads to advise the farmers when to plant, thin and harvest their sugar beets so they would get the best crop. This led him to advise Toyota to work with their suppliers and customers rather than go for the lowest price or highest profit.

If GM, Ford and Chrysler were enabled to anticipate, design and produce continually improving cars that people want to buy - a basic tenet of Deming's ideas - the industry could not only become profitable but it could be a leader in helping more American businesses, schools, government agencies and hospitals to adopt this "working smarter" philosophy.

This could be similar to how the Department of Agricultural Extension Service helped the farmers. "Working smarter" requires understanding and managing organizations as complex social systems. Management's focus is the relationships among cooperating workers, managers and departments. As Dr. Deming was fond of saying: "Then the design department won't design a car that production can't make and the marketing department can't sell."

Continual improvement of how the work is done yields more effective, efficient and profitable results in a rapidly changing, competitive market. Toyota is said to receive more than 1 million suggestions each year from its workers and acts on more than 90 percent of them.

Using Deming-Toyota methods numerous American hospitals, schools, and companies from Harley-Davidson and Hillerich & Bradsby's Louisville Slugger baseball bat factory to 20 SSM Hospitals in the Midwest and 40 southwestern Pennsylvania hospitals have dramatically reduced costs and improved products and services over the last 25 years.

Although divisions of each of the American auto companies have implemented many of these ideas, but managements interested in short-term profits never followed through. Instead, they lobbied Congress for relaxed fuel efficiency standards. Deming's philosophy of continual improvement seems almost unpatriotic in the land of "If it ain't broke, don't fix it."

The near-term challenge is twofold: Build fuel-efficient, hybrid-electric cars while continually improving the way they are built. There is no other way to survive in the global market.

In 1945, Japanese industry leaders looked out on a landscape of total industrial destruction and knew they had to change the way they did business. They had to overcome a reputation for exporting shoddy products.

Now it is our turn to look out the window and see that we have to change what we make and how we make it.

Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson has said, "A healthy automobile manufacturing sector is essential to the restoration of financial market security." We agree that car-making in the United States is an essential part of our shrunken manufacturing sector. But American car companies are not healthy. They have given up market share to Toyota, Honda and other transplant manufacturers for decades.

Loans for retooling are a foolish waste of resources. The problem is not pension liabilities or costly union contracts. The essential problem is management thinking. Competitors have continually improved their ability to design, build and bring to market more rapidly better-quality, better-selling vehicles. Most telling, Toyota and Honda already have a seven-year lead in development of hybrid vehicles and may be expected to maintain their technological edge.

The way through this crisis will not be quick and it won't be easy. We believe Congress and the new administration must bring the car companies into alignment with national priorities by reforming their management even as one or more of them is restructured through Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

We suggest two alternatives: First, if there is to be a financial rescue, the federal government must take its seat on the boards of these companies. It should mandate a transformation of management practices to principles of continual improvement - long demonstrated by more successful competitors. The companies must adopt a strategy of designing and building vehicles that will lead to elimination of petroleum-based transportation. We leave it to others to determine if the current managements and directors will be replaced.

Alternatively, the federal government should invite Toyota and Honda for discussion of possible mergers that would strengthen auto manufacturing in the United States. The nation's aim after all should be to move determinedly and swiftly toward reduced consumption of foreign oil and ultimately elimination of fossil fuels for transportation. Prideful insistence that the nation needs the brands "General Motors," "Ford," or "Chrysler" will gain nothing. The nation needs to work smarter.

This possibility of a transformation of management and manufacturing offers a benefit of incalculable value. It is an investment the costs of which will surely be recouped many times over, and the long-term happy ending will be that other sectors of our economy will learn from this powerful lesson.

Clare Crawford-Mason is co-author of "Thinking About Quality: Progress, Wisdom and the Deming Philosophy." She and Robert W. Mason are producers of the Deming Library.

三頭六臂集 66-70

三頭六臂集


70
"台灣東部對開海面發生里氏6.0級地震，全島各地都有震感，但暫時沒有損毀和傷亡報告。"
我的記憶是美國說是"5.2級地震" 不知道為什麼差異這樣大

Peter Drucker, a god among management theorists, put it this way in his autobiography, Adventures of a Bystander: "Whenever anything is being accomplished, it is being done, I have learned, by a monomaniac with a mission." But there's more to entrepreneurship than mustering monomaniacal passion, observed Drucker, who also wrote: "The entrepreneur always searches for change, responds to it and exploits it as an opportunity."

補月前的一則
Phil Crosby 先生以ITT副總身份訪台分公司 熱愛品質 p.156 說到 "竊聽麥克風伸出天花板 足足一呎長" 真是誇大 (BY David Hsu)



69
所有的利害關係人不可能一直都"全輸"

泰國的反對黨認為他們很聰明
由"暴民"癱瘓機場近一周 (統治者無可奈何)
近十萬國際旅客莫名其妙被滯留曼谷
許多地方如香港等人民罵政府營救不力

泰國真的變了 他們醉心於相互對抗
整個國家的觀光業將大挫
他們應該知道 不過他們認為
我贏最重要
我們輸 不算我的輸

08 12 02 讀wsj 報導旅客滯留問題
隨即看到泰航之廣告

午三時半讀紐約時報說法院宣告解散當今政府 行政首長五年"禁政"


68

政治圈的辭職之"上級說法"和 vs "當事者說法" 最值得玩味
台灣的達官要學美國 寫出回憶錄說說所見所聞


"金管會1201進行新舊主委交接。對於行政院指金管會前主委陳樹因「累了」請辭，陳樹表示，自己「只是服從度高」，不然再困難都不會倦勤；陳樹也強調，二次金改完全與他無關，也願意接受外界的檢驗。

陳樹上週五閃電請辭獲准，行政院對外表示，陳樹是因金融海嘯問題處理不佳而主動請辭；行政院長劉兆玄也說，陳樹曾和他抱怨過「有點累了、壓力很大」。

不過，對於行政院的說法，陳樹在金管會歡送會上全部否認，他表示自己對工作態度很嚴謹，即使遇到困難，絕不會倦勤，就算只給他一秒鐘，這一秒鐘也都會成為他力挽狂瀾的寶貴時間。

陳樹表示，他是「服從度很高」的人，金融海嘯爆發時，行政院老說金管會動作慢半拍，但他如果快速決定，卻又會被批「行事倉卒」，讓他舉步維艱。他感嘆的說，希望金管會在他離開後，能有更大的凝聚力，同時，也希望外界不要忽視內閣團隊的努力。

67
數十年前讀經濟學 對Gross Domestic Product= GDP 類似的說法
The monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period, though GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis. It includes all of private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports less imports that occur within a defined territory.

GDP = C + G + I + NX

where:

"C" is equal to all private consumption, or consumer spending, in a nation's economy
"G" is the sum of government spending
"I" is the sum of all the country's businesses spending on capital
"NX" is the nation's total net exports, calculated as total exports minus total imports. (NX = Exports - Imports)

現在有趣的是
外國有數組關於台灣明年GDP之預估 都是(約)-2%

底下是udn記者的報導 讀後才知道"主計處日前估明年台灣經濟成長率有2.12%"
竟只是這樣幾項 item by item 加總而成的

"經建會估計每人3600元消費券發下去之後，可增加明年經濟成長率0.64個百分點，經建會主為陳添枝今天上午在立法院接受質詢表示，如果消費券發下去之後，沒有辦法增加明年經濟成長率0.32個百分點，他願意為政策負責下台。

立法院經濟委員會今天上午審查「振興經濟消費券發放特別條例草案」，多位在野黨立委質詢時都質疑，經建會估計每人發放3600元消費券之後，可以讓明年經濟成長率增加0.64個百分點，可能過於樂觀，並要求陳添枝為政策負責。

陳添枝表示，他「有把握」消費券發下去之後，可以提升明年經濟成長率0.64個百分點。但是政策上不會有百分之百的情況，經建會估計消費券發下去之後，至 少可以額外帶動50%消費。陳添枝也同意，在野黨立委所說的，如果消費券發下去之後，明年經濟成長率增加低於0.32個百分點，就是政策失敗。

立委高志鵬表示，願意給經建會打對折，如果消費券發下去後，明年經濟成長率沒有增加0.32個百分點，陳添枝是否願意下台？陳添枝表示如果沒有達到，他願意辭職下台。

主計處日前估明年台灣經濟成長率有2.12%，其中消費券可帶動明年經濟成長率提升0.64個百分點，擴大公共建設約可提升0.49個百分點，都市更新為0.2個百分點，加強民間投資0.31個百分點。"

66
去捷運站的郵局寄出
看到的最大幅廣告看板是
"貓纜"
大家都知道它已崩坍數月 而且要修復的金額不只是"數億元"
他是馬英九先生的大工程

現在玩專家會審之遊戲
所謂 T16遷移或補強 可能是障眼法
因為遷移就該系統之設計 可能是重新再搞一系統
而所謂"補強" 多強 多大的保證 多大的成本
(大小要看其全壽命之周期成本TOTAL LIFE COSTING而定 不是北市官員可能為利己或包庇廠商 將它化小來蒙混)

(以下是十二月一日補的 市長說法都很有"同黨相濡之風"

遷移或補強 沒有時間表

郝龍斌上午再度回應貓纜T16塔柱是否遷移或是現地補強，仍以一貫態度表示： 「沒有時間表! 」目前要先等這個月12日四大技師公會的完整報告出來，再儘速提出遷移或補強的方案，目前市府沒有既定立場，一切以居民的安全、工程的可行性為優先考量。

對於外界質疑選塔地點有弊、興建貓纜時的前市長馬英九也要負行政責任等，郝龍斌指出，T16塔柱地點適不適合，等12日技師公會完整的報告出爐，一定會立即調查；但立柱地點，非市長一人所能決定，馬英九前市長沒有行政疏失責任，希望外界不要過度政治化。

居民：若不移 將激烈抗爭

【記者陶煥昌/台北報導】

「我們要讓它搬遷」，台北市貓空纜車T16號塔柱基座裸露，危及營運安全已停駛2個月，邊坡坍方，土石流多次衝入下方社區，四大技師公會地質鑑定報告昨天出爐，建議優先考量搬遷。社區居民說，早該搬了，當初就不應選址該處。

T16塔柱下方的「政大御花園」，社區管理委員會主委徐麗娟表示，社區300多戶、千餘居民們的第一考量就是遷移塔柱，目前還「暫時相信市政府」，但市府如果一直未搬移塔座，他們會有更激烈的抗爭。

徐麗娟還說，金頭山曾因台電興建電塔、開通隧道而兩度爆破，「山坡地質受傷嚴重」，一災遇有地震、颱風和大雨，土石流就順著山坡滑落，非常危險。若未搬移貓纜塔座，萬一發生災變，誰能負責？

另處社區「棲霞山莊」有52戶別墅型住戶、居民百餘人，社區管委會主委高佳增也說，就是遷移塔座，別無他途。

他表示，居民們一直都反對在當地設置貓纜塔柱，原因是脆弱的地質，根本不適合興建任何工程，但市政府毫不採納他們的意見，如今只是塔柱基座裸露，未出人命，只能算「還好」，一旦危害到人命，市政府也負不起責任。)

另外一大工程多有意思
讓陳水扁總統執政時代的建保局和北市政府大打官司
現在北市輸了
不過 天下是我馬政府的 我派出院長去和我以前的副市場"彼此相忘於江湖" (注)

所有的主管 其論定至少要十年之後
(注

2008-11-28

字型： ∣看推薦∣發言∣列印∣轉寄

法界：健保局放棄追討恐觸法

〔記 者林嘉東／台北報導〕對於行政院長劉兆玄指示讓縣市政府的中央健保補助款積欠案與查封土地脫鉤處理，法界指出，法院判決健保局勝訴，如果債權人不去追討債 權，並沒有觸法問題，但健保局受全民所託，若放棄追討債權，吃虧的還是百姓；假使一旦因放棄追討，造成健保局財政出現重大災害，可能觸及刑法的廢弛職務釀 成災害罪。

法界人士說，台北市政府欠健保局錢，健保局有責任要為全民追討，身為閣揆不能做過多介入，不然會讓外界質疑閣揆有偏頗。若閣揆執意下令健保局不要實行債權請求權，不僅危害健保局收入，也將危害全民健保制度的健全與發展。

健保局撤銷假扣押的部分，雖屬債權人權利的行使範圍，只要債權人與債務人達成一定還款條件，但不追這筆錢，不排除有公務員圖利的問題。

如果可以證明因為不收這筆錢，導致健保局財政陷入重大災害，就有可能觸及刑法一百三十條的廢弛職務釀成災害罪，但構不構成因果關係，還有討論空間。)

Is G M Worth Saving? 電機‧电子部品厂商の将来

由“豐田衝擊波”思考日本電子廠商的未來

DATE	2008/11/24

　　【日經BP社報導】 2周前的2008年11月6日，豐田汽車大幅下調了2008年度全年業績預期。新的2008年度全年的業績預期中，銷售額為23兆日元，營業利潤為6000億日元，與上年度相比銷售額減少了3兆2892億日元，營業利潤減少1兆6703億日元（參閱本站報導）。從銷售量來看，預計比上年度減少67萬3000輛，為824萬輛。雖然中南美、大洋州、非洲、中近東等“次要”地區的銷量增加1萬3000輛，亞洲增加3萬4000輛，但北美將減少53萬8000輛，日本減少10萬8000輛，歐洲減少約7萬4000輛。

　　美國的新車銷售面臨著相當嚴峻的形勢。2008年10月的新車銷售量約為83萬輛，比上年同月減少約34.6％，所有汽車廠商與上年同月相比均為負增長（參閱本站報導）。 通用（除Saab外）減少47.3％，福特汽車（除富豪外）減少31.9％，克萊斯勒（Chrysler）減少37.4％，美國汽車業界三巨頭均處於低迷 狀態，三巨頭向美國政府請求資助的新聞連日見諸報端。日本廠商也遭到巨大打擊，豐田比上年同月減少25.9％，本田同比減少28.0％，日產同比減少 35.4％。2007年達到全年近1600萬輛的美國新車銷售量，在2008年甚至可能低於1300萬輛。

汽車業界的不景氣波及電子廠商

　　此前將汽車定位於今後快速增長業務的電子廠商為數眾多，因此，以發達國家為中心的新車銷售量減少已開始對這些廠商產生巨大影響。日本先鋒甚至 因此導致社長更迭。該公司在發佈2008財年7～9月結算數據的同時，宣佈了董事長鬚藤民彥的辭職、常務董事小谷進于2008年11月16日就任董事長的 人事變動。其原因是2008年度先鋒全年業績預期的營業損益，從最初預想的盈利70億日元變成了虧損170億日元。產生虧損的起因是，此前作為救命稻草的 汽車關聯業務出現了下滑。

　　日立製作所及松下等日本大型電子廠商的汽車關聯業務銷售額已達到數千億日元的規模，這些公司均計劃將汽車業務作為今後的業務支柱，實現超過1兆日元的銷售額，但此次受新車銷售量大幅減少的影響，前景變得不容樂觀。

松下展開闔縱連橫策略

　　在這種背景下，2008年11月7日忽然傳來松下以收購三洋電機為前提、與其簽署資本及業務合作協議的消息（參閱本站報導）。松下董事長大坪文雄說出了松下的想法，“由於受2008年9月金融危機導致的全球經濟衰退影響，出於今後發展戰略的考慮，我們毅然決定與三洋電機展開合作”。雖然大坪表示“（此舉）將在環保及能源領域產生巨大的協同效應”，其中肯定包括汽車業務方面的合作。

　　松下甚至期望，在力爭達到1兆日元銷售額規模的汽車電子領域，“三洋電機能成為業績增長的引擎”（大坪）。其中，由於混合動力車等電動車輛用 充電電池的需求將出現爆炸式增長，因此，預計兩家大型鋰離子充電電池銷售商的聯手合作將產生巨大的協同效應。與松下攜手豐田汽車成立合資公司的情況不同， 三洋電機則與多家汽車廠商聯合開發鋰離子充電電池，所以，兩公司合作的是通過強強聯合，擴大在電動車輛領域的市場佔有率（筆者注：不過，汽車廠商極不情願 看到聯手開發計劃洩露給對手的情況，因此松下如何對待三洋電機的電池業務，將對兩公司今後的業務擴大帶來很大影響）。

為了將來，現在開始準備

　　由於此次金融危機造成的影響巨大，因此汽車市場從嚴重的衰退中走出來將需要相當長時間。因此，汽車廠商對電子設備廠商及電子部品廠商的降低成 本要求，將比此前更為強烈。如果在汽車廠商本來就相當苛刻的降低成本要求之外，再加上作為全球發展趨勢、低價格小型車進一步普及，那麼電子廠商的盈利空間 將變得更小。如果不以改變材料及製造製程為首，在所有製程上節能降耗，以此滿足汽車廠商的要求，那麼就將會丟掉訂單。

　　在努力降低成本的同時，還不應忘記，必需進行著眼于未來的產品開發。支援環保以及減少交通事故等消除汽車負面影響的舉措，今後將是不可或缺 的。而且，這些舉措少不了電動車輛及無線通信技術等電子技術。經濟形勢總是時好時壞，雖然目前不景氣，但形勢總會好起來。將來的汽車業界將如何發展、甚或 說是否能夠發展，取決於在如此不景氣的情況下仍能準確掌握需求及增長點、並不斷推進產品開發的廠商，這樣才能將汽車業務打造成業績增長的支柱。（記者：狩 集 浩志）

■日文原文
トヨタ‧ショックで考える電機‧电子部品厂商の将来

Is General Motors Worth Saving?

By Bill Saporito Thursday, Nov. 13, 2008

Illustration by Eddie Guy for TIME

ENLARGE +

For months, General Motors had been telling everyone who would listen that bankruptcy was not an option. It had a $30 billion cash pile and plans to restructure the company as the economy rebounded and 2007 U.S. auto sales topped 16 million units.

Then came October. Sales plummeted an astounding 45% over the same period last year, a result of a slowing economy and a dearth of financing for would-be car buyers. Total U.S. car and light-truck sales this year could come in at 13.5 million, 2.6 million fewer than last year. "That's in nobody's business plan," says Kimberly Rodriguez, an automotive specialist with Grant Thornton. "The best planning in the world cannot survive that fluctuation." It's now clear that GM can't survive as an ongoing entity without massive federal assistance. The company is burning through more than $2 billion each month. It has $16 billion left. As if they were aboard a dirigible losing altitude, GM's bosses have been frantically throwing all manner of stuff overboard — retiree health-care benefits, people, assets, new car design — to conserve $5 billion. That will get it through the year. (See pictures of the 50 worst cars of all time.)

But 2009 is the year of reckoning for GM and the rest of the domestic auto industry, if not the economy as a whole. The GM crisis is raising once again the issue of how far the government should go in rescuing banks, insurance companies, mortgage holders, credit-card issuers and now carmakers. GM has no doubts about it. "Immediate federal funding is essential in order for the U.S. automotive industry to weather this downturn," GM president Fritz Henderson admitted to investors during a conference call in which GM announced a third-quarter loss of $2.5 billion.

No one is more aware of that need than Barack Obama, who carried Michigan by a huge margin. The President-elect is committed to helping the Detroit Three, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is leading a rescue party that plans to get a bailout bill in front of President Bush before Thanksgiving. So far, the President has offered only to speed through Congress an already approved $25 billion loan to help Detroit create new fuel-efficient models. But GM needs an additional $10 billion simply to pay its bills next year and $15 billion more to close plants, compensate redundant workers and dump some of its lesser-performing brands.

The issue boils down to a historic proposition: Is what's good for GM still good for the country?

"If GM were to go into a free-fall bankruptcy and didn't pay its trade debts, then the entire domestic auto industry shuts down," says Rodriguez. The system — the domestic auto plants and their interconnected group of suppliers — is far bigger than GM. It includes 54 North American manufacturing plants and at least 4,000 so-called Tier 1 suppliers — firms that feed parts and subassemblies directly to those plants. That includes mom-and-pop outfits but also a dozen or so large companies such as Lear, Johnson Controls and GM's former captive Delphi. Beyond those are thousands of the suppliers' suppliers.

Although the Detroit Three directly employed about 240,000 people last year, according to the industry-allied Center for Automotive Research (CAR) in Ann Arbor, Mich., the multiplier effect is large, which is typical in manufacturing. Throw in the partsmakers and other suppliers, and you have an additional 974,000 jobs. Together, says CAR, these 1.2 million workers spend enough to keep 1.7 million more people employed. That gets you to 2.9 million jobs tied to the Detroit Three, and even if you discount the figures because of CAR's allegiance, it's a big number. Shut down Detroit, and the national unemployment rate heads toward 10% in a hurry. (See Pictures of the Week.)

Even if just one of the Detroit Three — and GM is the most likely, as Ford is in better shape and Chrysler is much smaller — spiraled into a free-fall bankruptcy, the systemic effects, at least initially, would be huge. The whole industry would not be able to build cars in the U.S., because of the lack of parts. "Unlike the airlines or steel, when you look at the automobile industry and the fact that the whole supplier base is connected — to Ford, Chrysler, Toyota — it will have a ripple effect on the entire industry," says Nicole Y. Lamb-Hale, a bankruptcy expert at the Detroit office of Foley & Lardner, a law firm that represents some GM suppliers.

A carefully planned, prepackaged bankruptcy would still be troublesome, she says. Throwing 479,000 GM retirees onto the rolls of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., for instance, could overwhelm it. And GM's agreement to fund the United Auto Workers' voluntary employee beneficiary association (VEBA) — thus getting a $50 billion unfunded liability off its books — might then be in jeopardy, as would the union's health benefits. The VEBA has already saved GM nearly $5 billion in the past quarter, and still greater benefits lie ahead.

A bailout won't spare GM or its workers pain. Assuming the government bridges GM to the future — or provides debtor-in-possession financing in a bankruptcy — there is still a ton of restructuring to do. The company operates 21 plants in North America and has three more that are scheduled to close. But Grant Thornton's Rodriguez says that still leaves five to go to match demand. "They still need to take structural steps: reduce suppliers, reduce the number of plants, reduce the cost structure and get rid of excessive debt." Most analysts say GM has to dump underperforming brands too.

Shutting down plants and cutting labor are costly — it's one of the ironies of the auto business. Deutsche Bank estimates that GM would have to spend $12 billion to chop labor costs and compensate dealers who lose their franchises. That would lower GM's North American operating costs from the current $31 billion to $25 billion annually, says Deutsche Bank. (See pictures of the global financial crisis.)

None of this can happen without the cooperation of the UAW, which is probably feeling better knowing that Obama is on his way to Washington. Although it hasn't shown its hand, the UAW may try to mitigate job losses in the U.S. by pushing GM and Ford to build fewer vehicles in Mexico, according to Sean McAlinden, chief economist at CAR. Obama might be sympathetic to that argument; he said during the campaign that NAFTA needed to be re-examined. The carrot for GM is that any new workers it hires in the U.S. will make $13 to $14 an hour and collect limited benefits rather than work for $29 an hour and get full benefits — the old UAW wage.

There's also a legitimate question as to who would do the restructuring. GM CEO Rick Wagoner has made the case that his crew is best placed to run the turnaround since it knows where the cost buttons are. But critics like Jim Schrager at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business say the wrong people are in charge: "I think you would only put money in GM if you had a complete change in the board and the current management. They are diligent. They worked very hard, but it just hasn't worked." In Schrager's view, GM is a strategic failure. It can manufacture high-quality cars, but it neither makes the right kind nor markets them effectively. He'd bust the company up into three independent firms: Chevy, Buick-Pontiac-GMC and Cadillac-Saab-Saturn.

If that's ultimately where Detroit ends up, is it worth the price to get there? Put another way, does GM deserve to be bailed out or left at the mercy of the market and almost certain death? "The University of Chicago training in me says the market should prevail," says Schrager. "But the Chrysler bailout was a success, and, gosh, I'd love to save it." That sentiment is not shared by everyone, and it goes to the heart of the central economic debate facing the country — between hard-nosed capitalists, who believe the market should decide, and public-policy types who view the economy as something far more organic than a balance sheet. But ultimately, whether GM is dead or alive, the taxpayers are on the hook for billions, for everything from lost tax revenues to higher unemployment costs to taking over GM's pension obligations. The decision that Washington has to make is whether we pay for GM's survival or for its funeral.

— With reporting by Joseph R. Szczesny / Detroit

三頭六臂集 60-65

三頭六臂集

65

台電公司竟然沒有電腦化統計用量之資料庫方式 來偵測可疑的盜電用戶 真不可思議

自由時報

〔記者黃美珠／新竹報導〕電價上漲，乾脆揩台電的油！

新竹檢調發現竟有半導體封裝業者、特種行業業者及一般住家等，僱請通曉水電工程的王相友以非法手段當上省電達人，造成台電損失上億元，其中新竹工業區半導體封裝業者寰邦公司今年「偷電」量已造成台電超過8000萬元的損失。

寰邦公司未回應

台電新竹區處將依電業法等相關規定計算，只能依基本電價對該公司開罰2000多萬元；檢調表示，初步認定捲入的寰邦科技公司本身並不知情。至截稿前，寰邦公司未給予回應。

新 竹地檢署檢察官林李嘉24日指揮新竹市調站到桃園搜索王相友（30歲）的住處等，查扣大批來源不明的家用、工業用電表及偽造台電封印鎖的半成品。同日並把 涉案的王某、該半導體封裝業者前任工程處長魏嘉生（40歲），以及涉嫌開立不實發票提供業者銷帳的呂永煌（47歲）3人傳、拘到案，且分依違反電業法和商 業會計法等移送法辦。

檢調指出，王某到案後坦承，多年前他花了50萬向吳姓竊電「教父」拜師，學會了用電表度數回撥、更動P3迴路等手法竊電。「出師」後，他開始招攬生意，客戶遍及全台，檢調懷疑還有共犯在逃。

客戶名單達數千個

檢調說，王某的客層分成一般家用電戶，和使用高壓電表的「用電大戶」，如科技公司、電子遊藝場、酒店等特種行業業者。一般用戶每個電表收費2到5萬元不等，用電大戶1個100萬。

今年7月電價上漲以後，王某還主動對一般家戶降價，每個電表只收費4000元，以致客源廣開，被搜出的客戶名單就多達數千個。

檢調並查出該新竹工業區半導體封裝業寰邦公司前任總經理楊耀州涉嫌在今年1月間，以80萬元佣金給魏嘉生，透過魏某仲介結識王嫌。

雙方再以機電維護名義，請王某每月底、台電派員抄表後，到該公司電表機房，把電表箱封印鎖及計量電表封印鉛塊破壞後，更改電流接線端子，使電流不經電表而降低用電計量。復於抄表日前，再以前述手法還原成正常的作業模式。

檢調說，楊某和魏某在今年9月案件爆發後，已在公司壓力下自行離職，楊某原也在這次傳喚名單，但昨天並未到案。

64

台灣的"馬先生"自以為英文很上鏡頭 有意無意間似乎說我是....
可惜他的腦筋和笨囊團草包多多
說什麼台灣要發展2.5產業 (製造業 和服務業之間)
政治人物經常以為每一名詞都可以賣賣
"這方面他像說633一樣讓人暗笑其淺薄
不過他的所謂或 自以為"絕對清廉"還是讓他當上"馬你"
問題是國民黨施政品質和集團大貪污
或許又得留給後人坐上金子堆成的貓纜後代者去笑談
悠悠青史
----

我有機會都要向產官學提議 必須全員有安全 健康 環保之可運作知識並落實
一位億萬富豪不只要有隨身保鑣 到水上(譬如說日月潭等等) 一定要穿上防衛衣等等

"前立委曾振農23日在柬埔寨落水身亡，妻子張花冠隨即與3名子女赴柬埔寨，因當地沒有冷凍設備，遺體難以保存，令張花冠十分心急，還特地從越南買乾冰保存曾振農的遺體。 張花冠說，「我覺得它這邊設備不好，所以我覺得很不捨。」她指出，柬埔寨比較落後，對大體的 ..."


看一下同一事件各報導自以為正確引用的"種種說法"--NOWNews東森 最危言聳聽
這也說明講話要語不驚人 以理服人是多大的困難

立院談人權曹興誠：士大夫不會求太監
聯合新聞網 - 15小時前
聯電榮譽董事長曹興誠昨天列席立法院司法委員會大談人權，他認為檢調搜索有的不符比例原則，對公司及個人造成很大傷害。而羈押場所簡陋，構成刑法凌虐人犯罪，在沒改善前，應釋放所有人犯。 立委曹爾忠問及和艦案爆發時為何不找馬永成溝通？曹興誠說，他當時即回覆調查局 ...
曹興誠：看守所簡陋如同凌虐受疑人 中時電子報
「罪有應得」 曹興誠立院高分貝批扁 NOWnews
曹興誠：羈押是對犯罪嫌疑人凌虐應改進 自由時報
中央廣播電台 - 臺灣新浪網
所有 20 則相關新聞 »

63

昨天23我和熊彼得先生談國民黨的近一桌副主席數
立委
以及今天的空白支票包裹表決
最容易大貪特貪污啦

今天接到WSJ的中國版本
"中國地方政府和其他機構正競相提出如何支出來自北京大規模刺激計劃的資金﹐這增加了部分經濟學家和中央政府對潛在的浪費和腐敗的擔憂。"

62

Hume的"jealousy of trade" 參考梁 永安 先生"啟蒙運動 下" 頁41之一段引言
這與Deming等人的促進世界的繁榮等相同
甚至於我們可以說 Deming等人在從事的是產官學的起而行動之"啟蒙"

這本引的 Life of JOHNSON多為以前所忽略
譬如說
'No, Sir, it is a good thing; there is a community of mind in it. Classical quotation is the parole of literary men all over the world. ...


61

梁 永安 先生"啟蒙運動"

和政大出版社總編輯陳巨擘《社會科的戰爭》

著名譯家鄭女士「哥倫布大交換」

新書出版聊天會

周日11/23 1200-1400 在

鄙辦公室23650127
新生南路三段 88號二樓
簡餐 wine and cheese party
聊聊天
如果你當天有空 有興趣
非常歡迎你來
要回信報名 方便準備
--
鍾 漢清
Hanching Chung (or HC/ hc)
書中
難忘的師長
引言：從漢寶德老師談其他老師 305

隔月臺大創校80年慶祝大會授予李亦園及漢寶德名譽博士學位


朋友們

上月我們轟轟烈烈搞一場講座
覺得錢花得很值得
所以以後每年十月一定會出版續集


現在我知道王晃三老師在"校園"要出版新書
"陳寬仁八分之六"回憶錄(八十大壽)也將由我社出版

我在想這三本書要在十月初出齊 我們的活動可以"利用"

請相關朋友記住我們的年約
恭喜大家


60

我從紐約時報到IBM公司
他們廣告的產品服務偏銀行界
這目前沒太大興趣
所以我去IBM公司的歷史
看 Deming 出現在那些
29條中只約十條比較相關
兩篇關於sofeware的書評提到應用統計品管或 pdca等

引一句名言 經營管理要依理論而不是數字
“We should be guided by theory, not by numbers.” - W. Edward Deming

關於他們自家公司的IBM's market-driven quality
則有 5,377 results

Ethics key to business success; Big Three's troubles

通用汽車董事會願意考慮破產

英 | 大 | 中 | 小

2008年11月24日11:23

知

情人士透露﹐陷入困境的通用汽車(General Motors Corp.)董事會成員目前願意考慮包括申請破產保護在內的“所有選擇方案”﹐從而使他們和公司董事長兼首席執行長瓦格納(Rick Wagoner)出現了罕見的立場分歧。

正在努力爭取聯邦資金救助的瓦格納上週對國會表示﹐通用管理層認為破產保護不是公司的可行方案﹐公司正致力於說服議員們同意提供財務救助。

一直公開強烈支持瓦格納的通用汽車董事會也同意﹐尋求政府救助是公司當務之急。但據瞭解通用董事會外部董事想法的人士透露﹐董事會不願排除申請破產的可能性。

通 用汽車上週五在向《華爾街日報》提供的聲明中說﹐董事會對申請破產進行了討論﹐但並不認為申請破產是解決流動性問題的可行性方案。通用汽車發言人托尼•瑟 沃尼(Tony Cervone)表示﹐公司董事會將視情況的發展考慮各種選擇方案﹐管理層正在考慮在職權範圍內竭盡所能以避免破產。

通用汽車表示﹐瓦格納不願接受採訪。記者上週五未能聯繫到公司幾位董事會成員予以置評。目前還不清楚董事會是否聘請了獨立顧問以協助評估可能不得不考慮的選擇方案。

通 用汽車董事會內部出現新的緊張跡象﹐可能會令55歲的瓦格納今後幾週的日子更加難過。在過去一個月中﹐他已被迫承認通用汽車使用現金的速度達到了危險水 平。瓦格納表示﹐受信貸市場凍結和汽車需求暴跌的影響﹐公司的現金可能最早在明年1月就會跌破維持正常運轉的最低水平。通用汽車上週五收盤為3.06美元 ﹐上漲18美分﹐漲幅6.25%。而一年之前通用汽車股價還在42美元左右。

最近幾週 來﹐通用汽車董事會已開始表露出他們不怕與瓦格納立場不一致﹐上週五表現出來的分歧至少是第二次發生這種情況了。今年秋天﹐瓦格納的管理小組推出了一項計 劃﹐可能與克萊斯勒(Chrysler LLC)尋求合併。但據知情人士透露﹐一些董事對這個計劃興趣寡然。11月初﹐在通用汽車即將公佈第三季度大幅虧損和現金流出69億美元的季報時﹐公司董 事會督促管理層放棄合併談判﹐以集中精力應對流動性危機。

在通用汽車14席董事會中﹐有9位董事在2003年瓦格納出任董事長時就已經在 位。許多董事都是瓦格納的導師兼前任史密斯(Jack Smith)執掌通用的時候當選的。在通用汽車近年來遭受數十億美元虧損的情況下﹐董事會首席董事、伊士曼-柯達公司(Eastman Kodak Co.)退休董事長費什(George Fisher)仍多次表示支持瓦格納。董事會其他成員還包括前安永(Ernst & Young)董事長拉斯卡維(Phil Laskawy)北卡羅來納大學校長鮑爾斯(Erskine Bowles)。拉斯卡維最近被任命為房利美(Fannie Mae)董事長﹐鮑爾斯則曾擔任克林頓總統的白宮幕僚長。

今年夏初﹐通用汽車董事會打破了以往月度董事會會議的慣例﹐開始每週五召開電話會議。最近幾週﹐董事會每周都要召開多次電話會議﹐討論公司解決流動性危機的對策。

通用汽車上週五表示﹐正在制定新的成本削減措施。公司表示﹐美國三家工廠和加拿大安大略一家工廠可能會延長以往兩週的假期停工期﹐直到明年1月份。公司還表示﹐可能會提前關閉安大略的一家卡車工廠。

通用汽車的飛機專機還剩下5架。公司證實﹐將中止其中2架的租賃合同。上週瓦格納和底特律另外兩家汽車公司的首席執行長乘坐公司專機前往國會申請數十億美元公共資金救助﹐他們為此遭到了國會的嚴厲批評。

通用汽車發言人威爾金森(Tom Wilkinson)表示﹐坐著公司專機出現在華盛頓﹐公司理解這個具有象徵意義的問題﹐對此也非常敏感。

瓦 格納和福特汽車(Ford Motor Co.)以及克萊斯勒首席執行長上週前往華盛頓﹐希望從財政部用於救助陷入困境的金融機構的7,000億美元資金中獲取250億美元救急﹐或說服國會加快 發放已經批准的250億美元貸款﹔這筆貸款是根據能源部一項提高能效計劃﹐批給底特律汽車製造商的。

瓦格納、福特汽車的穆拉利(Alan Mulally)、克萊斯勒的納德里(Robert Nardelli)對議員們表示﹐他們已經開始對公司實施重組﹐需要過渡性貸款幫助他們度過難關。瓦格納懇請政府立即提供100億至120億美元的貸款。

三 人都表示﹐他們擔心三家中任何一家公司申請破產都會導致另外兩家公司的連鎖崩潰。他們指出﹐由於三家公司共享供應商﹐因此一家公司倒閉可能會拖垮供應商網 絡﹐從而影響另外一家或兩家公司。他們還提到﹐有研究顯示﹐由於擔心沒有質量保證或無法獲得部件﹐消費者可能不願意購買破產汽車製造商的產品。

議員們很懷疑三家公司是否已經採取了切實舉措帶領公司重回盈利之路。在遭受兩天的嚴厲批評後﹐底特律三巨頭的老總們被告知﹐12月2日再來國會﹐介紹如果獲準使用納稅人資金進行救助﹐他們將如何使用這筆錢。

眾 議院議長佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)和參議院多數派領袖雷德(Harry Reid)上週五在一封信函中表示﹐汽車製造商必須提供他們長期穩定所需現金的確切評估。他們還表示﹐汽車製造商獲得貸款後﹐必須保證政府債權人地位高於 其他所有債權人﹐完成能效目標﹐限制高管薪酬並提供認股權證﹐保證公司復蘇後納稅人可以從中獲利。

一些議員仍然認為﹐破產是一個可能的歸宿。田納西州共和黨參議員、參議院銀行委員會成員考克(Bob Corker)表示﹐共和黨參議員一直在討論所謂的預先打包破產的問題﹐即債權人同意在公司申請破產保護之前重組債務。

公司有時可以利用這一方案避免長期陷入破產僵局。但破產專家警告稱﹐像通用汽車這樣的大型公司的破產程序可能陷入泥淖﹐因為其中牽涉到錯綜複雜的工會和經銷商合約以及層層債權人。

John D. Stoll
------





這是篇介紹一位輪胎大廠CEO的"文化改進"之故事

Speaker: Ethics key to business success
Galesburg Register-Mail - Galesburg,IL,USA
...
Martin Carver was the former CEO of Bandag Incorporated, a Muscatine, Iowa, based tire retread business that provides retreading materials, equipment and tire management services to franchised dealers in more than 100 countries. Now he is president of MG Consulting, LLC. Carver has an impressive resume. In 1986 he was voted by Financial World Magazine as the CEO of the year in the rubber and plastics industry. Following that accomplishment, he was voted by Financial World again in 1989 as the CEO of the decade in the broader category of chemicals industry. In a recent interview with Terry Cavanaugh on WGIL, Carver talked about his company in the early 1990s as doing fairly well financially. From a financial perspective, he had few complaints. However, he was troubled by employee morale. Although Bandag employees earned some of the highest wages in the area with one of the best benefits packages, they were still fairly negative. At first Carver was angered by his observation. He couldn’t understand it. But instead of disregarding it, he chose to confront the culture of his organization.

Shortly after that, Carver attended a conference with Dr. W. Edwards Deming. As he told Cavanaugh last week, it quite literally changed his life. If you go to the Deming Web site you’ll find on the home page these words, “We seek to conduct ourselves in a manner consistent with his high moral and ethical standards, professional and personal integrity, and commitment to lifelong learning. We do this solely from our dedication to the philosophy and values of Dr. Deming and our belief that together, with humility, we can and will make a difference in the quality of life for everyone.”

And this quite literally says it all about Carver and the approach he took with his company. He began a culture change that in most cases would have been unheard of and largely unnecessary from a financial viewpoint. However, he knew the company could be even better with the new direction. Specifically, he took a large, top-down, hierarchically organized business and turned it into a flatter team-based organization. Employees at every level began contributing to decision making and departments worked cross-functionally to achieve the best solutions for the company. Carver wanted the employees of Bandag to have a passion, and allowing employees to take ownership at the decision -making level and to lead the organization created that passion. Ultimately, Carver knew the passion couldn’t help but be extended to the customer and the bottom line would improve.

Carver also emphasized that there can’t be egos or personal agendas involved with leadership. Everyone within the organization is important to its success. And the Bandag company core values still confirm that approach.

Carver was right. Bandag went on to greater success with sales in 2005 of a staggering $921 million worldwide. In 2006, Bandag was sold for over $1 billion and merged with Bridgestone Tire. Today, the Web site still says this about its approach to business: “We treat everyone with respect and dignity. We do what we say we are going to do and never allow honesty and integrity to be compromised. We assume good intentions; we believe that all people desire to do their best.”

福特不向国家要钱，但希望更多欧洲贷款

据德新社等的报道，继欧宝之后，福特汽车公司德国子公司总裁马特斯（Ｂｅｒｎｈａｒｄ　Ｍａｔｔｅｓ）也发出呼吁，为了解决目前汽车行业的 问题，欧盟层面必须行动。他对"图片报"发表谈话说，"我们希望看到在欧洲投资银行有大约４００亿欧元的投资框架存在。这是为了帮助欧洲汽车制造行业，让 他们有机会实现在降低能源和排放方面经得起挑战"。"我们大家都必须在开发领域继续向前走"。马特斯强调，他的呼吁不同于一把援救大伞，他需要的是"借贷 资金，含贷款利息而且是要偿还的。换言之，它们不是送礼。这里讲的是现代科技以及国际市场上的竞争能力"。 他重申，他的公司不需要德国政府的资助，"我们不需要向默克尔总理伸手要钱。福特还从来没有、今后也不会向政府要钱"。虽然福特在欧洲市场上进展不 错，但今年年内销售1800万台车的计划显然无可兑现。比较现实的估计是，今年可以在欧洲市场销售1600万辆福特汽车。马特斯不得不承认，"这一下滑数 字的幅度还是相当的大"。他说，福特有足够的资金进行企业的重新整顿，"没有人能够估计今后12个月或13个月内事情会怎样发生。我们估计，人们对汽车的 需求会下降，我们会因此调整生产。"

Big Three’s Troubles May Touch Financial Sector

By ZACHERY KOUWE and LOUISE STORY

Published: November 23, 2008

To the long list of troubles plaguing the financial industry, add three big ones — make that Big Three ones.

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The foundering Detroit automakers owe more than $100 billion to their bankers and bondholders, and Wall Street is starting to wonder how much of that will be paid back.

With Congress balking at a rescue for the auto industry, and Chrysler and General Motors warning that they could face bankruptcy without one, investors are worrying about financial companies’ exposure to the Big Three, as well as to automotive suppliers and dealers.

The intertwining troubles of the auto and financial industries were partly behind the sharp sell-off in financial stocks last week, when banking shares fell to their lowest levels since the economic crisis broke out and questions swirled about the future of Citigroup.

“It’s pretty clear there was a cause and effect,” said Wilbur L. Ross Jr., a prominent financier who specializes in distressed industries and has invested in auto parts companies.

Big banks say that their exposure to the auto industry is relatively small and that in any case most of the loans are secured by vehicles or other assets, which would help minimize any losses.

But the true risks are difficult to ascertain because banks do not disclose much about their exposure. Of particular concern is the fate of billions of dollars of bonds that were used to finance the 2007 acquisition of Chrysler by a large private investment fund, Cerberus Capital Management.

The potential losses do not end with those high-risk loans, however. Over the past three years, as the auto industry’s fortunes darkened, big banks like Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase helped the automakers sell more than $56 billion of new debt securities, according to Dealogic. Most of those securities were bought by investors like insurance companies, pension funds and hedge funds, many of which have been staggered by losses on other investments. Some hedge funds already have been forced to dump investments into a falling market to meet demands.

That figure does not include $47 billion of risky loans made to various affiliates of Chrysler, Ford and G.M. that are backed by auto leases and car loans to individual car buyers, some of whom are now struggling to pay their own bills as the economy craters.

Many of these auto bonds and loans have plummeted in value as things have gone from bad to worse for Detroit’s once-proud carmakers. A $7 billion term loan that Ford issued in 2006, for instance, was trading for 32 cents on the dollar late last week in the secondary, or resale, market. That is particularly worrisome given that this debt would be the first to be repaid in the event that Ford filed for bankruptcy.

But businesses and ordinary people all the way down the automotive food chain are shouldering a lot of debt too. That includes autoworkers, but also everyone from makers of car stereos to dealerships to parts suppliers, as well as the people who work for those companies. Many of these borrowers could run into trouble if the automakers implode, leaving lenders in the lurch.

“The bigger fear is banks’ indirect exposure to suppliers and related companies in the auto industry,” said Ricardo Kleinbaum, an analyst at BNP Paribas in New York. “The real issue is the effect of an automaker bankruptcy on employment, credit card payments and mortgage defaults in the regions that are affected.”

A big worry is whether banks that have extended loans or underwritten bonds for the auto industry have held on to this debt or sold it to other investors. Banks typically retain a small portion of the securities they underwrite, and many banks that had hoped to sell high-risk loans have been unable to find buyers for them since the credit markets froze over.

“The question is, how much of these loans have they retained on their balance sheet?” said Tanya Azarchs, a credit analyst at Standard and Poor’s Ratings Service.

Few doubt that banks are sitting on billions of dollars of loans to the industry, though. Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley were among the banks that arranged $11.5 billion in financing for Cerberus’s takeover of Chrysler. Analysts say the banks are stuck with much of that debt.

And then there is GMAC, the finance arm of G.M. GMAC, which is half-owned by Cerberus, applied last week to become a bank holding company in hopes of qualifying for the government’s bank rescue.

In 2005, when banking was still strong, Bank of America bought $55 billion in loans from GMAC and then sold most of them to other investors. In June, the bank, which has itself received billions of dollars from the government, helped GMAC refinance $60 billion of debt.

Don't reward shortsightedness; pulling themselves up by their own bootstraps

在 Chicago Tribune 讀到這篇說明美國當初在各方面如果依Deming 的勸告真去執行
現在美國三大汽車場就不會這樣慘 社會更能out of the crisis

Don't reward shortsightedness

November 22, 2008

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After several futile attempts to rescue this economy, we're now talking about the bailout of the auto industry. But that proposal begs these questions: Do we now have the shortsightedness that the Big Three automakers had almost 60 years ago? Are we, the complicit public for all these years, willing to overlook the deliberate ineptness of those who have and are still taking us to the cleaners or should I say car wash?

In 1985 I assumed the role of plant manager of one of the world's foremost automotive tool manufacturers in a small northern Iowa town. It was then that I was introduced to W. Edwards Deming. At the time, the company had a greater market share than any of its individual domestic or foreign competitors, but ominous and encroaching signs from abroad began to threaten its pre-eminence in the automotive aftermarket. So steps had to be taken to arrest this incursion that could mean the end of its reign.

It was then, as I began my tenure at the company, that we began with Deming's concept of Statistical Process Control, later changed to Quality Control, and the practice of Toyota's kanban cell manufacturing techniques that would enhance the already high-quality standards that had defined the company for decades. For the first time in its history, the company planned and executed a comprehensive strategic program that not only kept it in business but allowed it to maintain its historic leadership in an expanding market.

Before 1950, Deming approached America's primary automakers and offered them a cooperative exclusive—a virtual guarantee that they would lead the world for years to come if they adopted his then-untested automobile production process—but they refused, saying, "It ain't broke and don't need fixing."

He then went to Japan.

After 1950, after Japanese auto makers adopted Deming's quality-control procedure—well, you know the rest of the story. Unfortunately, Detroit still hasn't caught on. And it expects us to bail it out for such incompetence and shortsightedness?

If we had listened, if we had followed him, if we had incorporated his thinking not only in the automobile industry but in government, in the ubiquitous economy collapsing around us and in our private lives, we would now be far better for it.

—James D. Cook, Streamwood

Even in Home of Carmakers, Not Everyone Wants a Lifeline

Fabrizio Costantini for The New York Times

“If I have to pull myself up by my own bootstraps, I hope G.M. faces the same reality of pulling themselves up by their own bootstraps,” said John Raterink, an employee of a shop that provides parts to the auto industry.

By MONICA DAVEY and SUSAN SAULNY

Published: December 2, 2008

KALAMAZOO, Mich. — Wander Michigan’s cities and towns, and many residents offer the same message about the prospect of a $34 billion bailout of America’s automakers: Please provide the help, not just for the sake of the automobile industry and its workers but for all the other people whose jobs are so intricately braided into the state’s autocentric economy.

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But the quiet truth in Michigan, home of the Big Three manufacturers, is that the state is not of one voice on the matter.

Other opinions are alive, and they can be just as passionate in opposition to a rescue. This, even though neighbors or friends or parents may have once depended on the industry. This, though speaking for the bailout here is something akin to embracing the Great Lakes or apple pie, as evinced by the letter of support for it signed last month by all of Michigan’s Congressional delegation, Democrats and Republicans alike.

There have been no statewide opinion polls published on the bailout request, though with Michigan’s economy so tied to the industry, those for it undoubtedly outweigh those against, political, economic and polling experts suggest. Still, “there are plenty of people who are rolling their eyes,” said Bill Ballenger, editor of the closely followed newsletter Inside Michigan Politics.

“You keep your head down if you’re one of them, but they’re out there,” Mr. Ballenger said. “There are a lot of them.”

In interviews across the state over the last two weeks, criticism of the automakers’ request surfaced again and again. Many people said they had long watched Michigan’s economy strain and falter — in no few cases causing the collapse of their own employers and loss of their own jobs — and could no longer see why the Big Three should be singled out for rescue.

“How many other, small companies would like a bailout?” said Heather Davison, who lives in Davisburg, less than an hour north of Detroit, and has been unemployed for a year. “It seems to me that the car companies saw the banks getting a bailout and said, ‘Oh, let’s go!’ ”

Ms. Davison, 34, lost her job as a graphic designer for a real estate publication when the company she worked for failed. She said General Motors, Ford and Chrysler should have made changes to their cars and work force years ago.

“They should have made a car that was more efficient,” she said. “And how many G.M. vehicles are there out there? They should have thought of this, of the need to restructure, a long time ago.”

Like some others interviewed, Ms. Davison was unsparing as well in her criticism of the United Automobile Workers. “I’ve watched that Ron Gettelfinger on TV,” she said of the union’s president. “He talks about the need to restructure, but they needed to look at that a long time ago.”

John Raterink, a tool and machine maker who works at a small shop in Grand Rapids that supplies parts to the auto industry, opposes a bailout even though his livelihood is tethered to the car makers. Mr. Raterink, 46, points a finger at the Big Three for a lot of economic misery.

“I remember when G.M. shut down 11 plants, some of which were in the Great Lakes region,” he said. “They said, ‘We can’t afford to keep doing business like this.’ But do you know what happened at the upper echelon of G.M.? They got six-figure bonuses at the end of the year. It’s really hard to feel sorry for a company that’s lived so high on the hog.”

Mr. Raterink said he had seen dozens of machine shops like his disappear across western Michigan because of the outsourcing of work to other countries.

“If we look at thousands of workers in counties around here, they got no sympathy,” he said. “We got hurt, and we got hurt badly. As a result of their practices, I haven’t seen a raise in six years, and I’ve seen my health benefits decline.”

The Big Three’s share of the market has dropped 30 percentage points in the last 13 years, to some 44 percent. That plunge has had a ripple effect across the state, home to more than half the people employed nationwide by the Big Three.

Michigan can hardly afford it. The state’s economy has been in recession for years, with some experts convinced that it never emerged from the last national recession, in 2001.

The unemployment rate is 9.3 percent — tied with Rhode Island’s for the highest in the country — and the safety net of social services is stretched beyond ability to care for all of those in need. The total of Michigan residents who receive some form of public assistance, like food stamps or home heating credits, is now 1.82 million, or close to 20 percent of the population, a record for the state.

On top of all that, working people in Michigan are feeling the strain of higher taxes, a result of a state budget shortfall in 2007.

But though the failure of any of the auto companies could make life in Michigan harder still, opponents of the rescue stand firm, many convinced that any federal loan would provide only a temporary fix anyway.

“Do I think things could get worse?” Mr. Raterink said. “Absolutely. But bear in mind that we’ve already been dealing with this since the last quarter of ’99. If I have to pull myself up by my own bootstraps, I hope G.M. faces that same reality of pulling themselves up by their own bootstraps.”

Jeffrey Kerr, a real estate developer who lives in the Lake Michigan town of Saugatuck, objects to the personal costs that he says come with bailouts. “When the government starts bailing out private companies,” Mr. Kerr said, “what they’re basically saying is, ‘We’re going to tax you more for a very long time.’ ”

Pat Weber, a construction manager who was laid off last year in Fennville, near Saugatuck, largely agreed. “A bailout will cause a snowballing effect,” Ms. Weber said, “and it’s way too scary how it will come back on all of us.”

At the shop where Mr. Raterink makes tools and machinery, there used to be 15 men. Now there are five.

“They weren’t offered any bailout,” he said of those who lost their jobs. Then, of the Big Three and the mismanagement he perceives, he added, “The wolf you let loose is at your door.”

Monica Davey reported from Kalamazoo, and Susan Saulny from Saugatuck, Mich.

美國General Motors 等三CEOs 遭烤問

這篇沒有說明某作秀議員
要問這些企業頭頭
那人不是搭專機來華盛頓要錢 所有人CEO
那人想回去之後賣掉專機 沒人


WSJ
閑說華爾街

通用何故招人恨

英 | 大 | 中 | 小

2008年11月20日15:20

可

憐哪﹐通用汽車(General Motors)的那一百萬股東。

現在﹐通用股價已經跌到每股不足3美元﹐差不多等於化為烏有。而且這家公司也沒能培養出一位知道如何恰當地向華盛頓乞求救助的CEO。

通用老板瓦格納(Rick Wagoner)在參議院銀行委員會所作的證詞聽上去不僅傲慢而且處處辯解。在瓦格納的王國里﹐在這場討厭的衰退到來之前﹐通用汽車的一切都很順利。

當然﹐如果瓦格納表現得不像個妄想狂﹐那還真有點奇怪呢。畢竟﹐他從1977年起就加入通用了。

不過說實話﹐底特律汽車三巨頭週二的聽證實際上可能無關緊要。因為聽證會之前﹐針對汽車業的250億美元緊急救助計劃已經無疾而終。共和黨人可能會阻止該計劃﹐而且布什也會否決它。

但有趣的是﹐三巨頭提出的申請TARP的理由實在太過牽強﹐搞得現在就連一些民主黨人或許都覺得﹐破產是三巨頭唯一明智的歸宿。

理由到底有多牽強？

每個納稅人都應該看看週二的參議院聽證會實況﹐然後作出自己的決定。聽證會長達4個小時﹐不過很吸引人。簡直每個片斷都扣人心弦。

通 用的瓦格納、福特(Ford)的穆拉利(Alan Mulally)、克萊斯勒(Chrysler)的納爾德里(Bob Nardelli)以及全美汽車工人聯合會(UAW)的頭頭格蒂芬格(Ron Gettelfinger)在聽證會上老調重彈。照他們的說法﹐汽車業有成百上千萬個崗位朝不保夕。美國製造業的未來危如累卵。而所有這一切很顯然都是因 為陷入信貸危機的美國人現在沒法貸款買車──他們本來也不該用貸款買車。

實際上﹐美國汽車市場幾十年來就存在市場份額下降、產能嚴重過剩的現象﹐當然﹐這一事實不是他們“需要”的。只有在瓦格納的世界里﹐汽車業這幾十年才實現了“巨大進步”。

如 果你時間有限﹐可以直接跳到聽證會的第三個小時﹐在那一段里﹐民主黨參議員曼南德茲(Bob Menendez)揭露汽車業救助計劃是一個“彌天大謊”。250億美元的數字簡直是夢話。它只能堵堵漏洞﹐暫時維持幾個月。曼南德茲的話很直率。之後﹐ 三巨頭又會回來畢恭畢敬地伸手要錢。

曼南德茲的語氣聽起來還很有同情心。下一位就不然了。共和黨的考克(Bob Corker)是一位嚴肅的生意人﹐屬於嚴酷無情那一類的。“通用正在螺旋式下滑”﹐克萊斯勒“幾乎心臟都跳不動了”﹐“三巨頭誰該生存下去？誰又不該？”

考克大膽挑明瞭每個人都知道但沒人願意說出來的東西。整個美國汽車業已經破產。應該有一家或兩家公司退出舞台。對它們根據輕重緩急和現有能力決定救誰不救誰是不可避免的。這是商業社會的法則。

考克提出的富有創意的解決辦法是讓處於“公正立場”的格蒂芬格來確定他們存活的先後順序（三家公司都曾被他的那個工會敲過竹槓）。格蒂芬格的回答是：福特﹐然後是克萊斯勒﹐最後是通用。

幾分鐘後﹐瓦格納之前表現出的彷彿政客般的泰然自若終於瓦解。他開始臉色變紅﹐聲調升高。明顯可以看出通用已經變得多麼絕望。

克萊斯勒老板納爾德里和福特掌門穆拉利至少知道怎樣適當地謙卑點。當然﹐他們不像瓦格納這個“老底特律”有感情負擔。

納 爾德里進入克萊斯勒只有一年多時間。他知道克萊斯勒時日無多﹐因此看上去就像一個隨時準備離開的人。每次輪到他發言的時候﹐他就提醒議員們注意克萊斯勒的 “脆弱”現狀。奇怪的是﹐這位在家得寶(Home Depot)遭遇困難之際仍從中獲得數億美元的前首席執行長仍能博得同情。其推銷技巧實在高明。他應該去為克萊斯勒賣車。

至於穆拉利﹐他一再聲明說﹐其實福特甚至無需來這裡要錢。是坐在桌子那頭的麻煩的窩囊廢瓦格納拉他來的。“我是因為通用才來這裡的﹐”穆拉雷帶著朴素的兄弟般的情誼說道。

當然﹐這並不是真心話。穆拉利也承認﹐如果到2010年之前美國經濟不能好轉﹐就連福特手裡的錢也會花個底朝天。他還沒提到福特股票當天的收盤價已不到兩美元。

對三巨頭來說﹐幸運的是﹐到明年初新總統和新一屆國會宣誓就任後﹐汽車業救助計劃將迎來新機遇。

穆拉利和納爾德里將有幾個月的時間來好好表現一下自己。

瓦格納或許就沒這麼幸運了。董事會可以容忍公司沒有盈利﹐但可能無法忍受他從華盛頓空手而歸。如果他是通用的最佳銷售員﹐那難怪這家公司買不動車了。

Evan Newmark

（編者按﹕本文作者Evan Newmark曾在華爾街工作了20餘年﹐目前已遠離各大投行、自己在進行股票投資。本欄目文章選自他在Deal Journl上的博客Mean Street。欄目內容都與華爾街有關。）

雜記2008年東海大學戴明學者講座

11/16

「無上正等正覺」無上正等正覺是指佛教修行上的最高覺悟、最高感受境界，此詞句可見於各佛經，如《金剛經》。 舍利佛聽佛說道而得「無上正等正覺」天龍八部有"人"捐其上衣供養佛

11/14
晚上與日本友人 Kawase 先生到師範大學藝術史研究所參加 奧地利Innsbruck大學來的客座老師 Dr Cristoph Hoelz 放映 The Great Dictator by Chales Chaplin 討論一番
今天讀一下紐約時報 (December 26, 1977 OBITUARY)

Chaplin's Little Tramp, an Everyman Trying to Gild Cage of Life, Enthralled World

By ALDEN WHITMAN

No motion picture actor so captured and enthralled the world as did Charles Spencer Chaplin, a London ragamuffin who became an immortal artist for his deft and effective humanization of man's tragicomic conflicts with fate.

這humanization 讓我想起WWS說 Dr Deming的統計教學:

;">這三課程是商業研究的統計方法，除了介紹各種統計方法本身之外，他更會結合它們究竟如何發展而成的故事。戴明博士有獨特方式、本領，將統計數學賦予人情味。
-List" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5Chans%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"> I first met Dr. Deming the fall of 1972 at New York University's Graduate Business School. They were just completing the World Trade Center at the time and it towered above the classrooms at 100 Trinity Place. Deming had turned 72 at the time and was the only "old" person that I knew who didn't dwell on the past. "Management's job is the future." Deming focused on it. The course was on statistical methods for business research and was a combination of stories on how the methods were developed and the statistical methods themselves. Dr. Deming had a way of humanizing the mathematics of statistics.


11/12
讀到一則 會議主題演講者 聖吉---根據WWS 這Senge發音是"錯誤的" ge讀如台語之"雞/基(隆)"
Senge 引 Deming 博士給他的信說 盛行其道的MBO等主導產官學界的危害極大

AASHE2008 - Monday, November 10

His opposite number was Peter Senge, whose perspective is perhaps three steps bigger yet, whose point is not that we’re getting the wrong solutions but that we’re totally failing to ask the right questions. Immediately preceding dinner, his presentation drew linkages between industrial organization, lack of community in modern Western society, the stultifying effects of K-12 (really, K-6) education, and resource utilization as if the natural world were infinite. Perhaps his most striking story told of W. Edwards Deming telling the assembled state secretaries of education that the thrust towards standardized testing and “accountability” was designed in imitation of a management approach (management by objectives) which had proven itself a miserable failure. In a letter to Senge, Deming wrote that “our prevailing system of management has destroyed our people", and that the prevailing system of management started in grade one.

11/8

capstone, vaulting ambition

'2666'

By ROBERTO BOLAÑO

Reviewed by JONATHAN LETHEM
Roberto Bolaño’s posthumous novel is not only a capstone to his own vaulting ambition, but a landmark in what’s possible for the form in our increasingly, and terrifyingly, post-national world.

This lecture series will cover what Deming considered the capstone of his career: A System of Profound Knowledge. In this first lecture, I will outline its evolution from his work in Statistical Studies to the state of its development at his death in 1993. I will also continue with my development of it to date.

這講座三場要探討的主題為，戴明自認為生平的登峰造極思想總結：「Deming’s System of Profound Knowledge」。(8/19)
至於這是不是他的 vaulting ambition 應該不是或不能這樣說


11/7

這部1927年的德國默片 也是從 腦-手-心 和諧的觀點探討現代文明
Wikipedia article "Metropolis (film)".

心*日本*
代表
身*中國*

安心立命　spiritual peace.

安身，得以容身。立命，精神安定。安身立命指有了容身之處，生活有著落，精神上有所寄託。水滸傳˙第二回：「那裡是用人去處，足可安身立命。」文明小史˙第三十七回：「你們正在青年，須要曉得安身立命的道理。」亦作「立命安身」。



自從 辦這 2008年東海大學戴明學者講座 又可以接到校友通信

a・lum・nus

━━ n. （pl. a・lum・ni） 男子卒業生; 校友; 同窓生.

BusinessWeek 登一則消息

The University of Chicago’s business school — one of the top-ranked schools in the country — has received a large naming gift from alumnus David Booth and renamed itself the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. The gift, announced this evening at an event on the Chicago campus, is worth $300 million, according to the school — representing the largest gift ever to a business school by an individual.
這次回東海 第一次去科技學院 它的樓名原可以取捐獻者為紀念的先人
可是謙卑 取了大智慧
這詞可用在諸宗教
真妙

*****

2008/11/6
今天聽方聞教授夫婦談學思過程
師母提到故宮博物院第一次到美國大都會展覽
人山人海中有兩類人特別
一是老一輩的華人帶下一代到大都會 只看畫的印 知道這是"唐伯虎"的 就走
一是美國帶認養的中國嬰兒來吸收中華文化之精華
(原本我是要談 WWS夫婦的寵兒幼女---認養韓國小女
他們的博愛 讓10/18日午餐諸友自嘆不如的


方聞教授夫婦強調兒童文化/美育教育之重要
他們可能在北京清華大學教過三年 (似乎沒什麼成就 或許謙虛)
問 每天630-730 到校園打太極拳的 多是離休校工
他搞不清楚教授退休之後做什麼

據他說他的好友日本東京大學鈴木敬教授 退休之後到靜岡的溫泉防震基金成立的博物館當館長/義工
他勉勵學藝術史研究所的 多從事"導遊/導引"

中國藝術史才開始

不過藝術學科是通的 他在普林斯頓先教6年西洋中古藝術 (建築)

可惜中國兩千多家博物館的藏品都被職員"上鎖" ---或需靠錢或關係才看得到真品


====

書中
難忘的師長
引言：從漢寶德老師談其他老師 305

隔月臺大創校80年慶祝大會授予李亦園及漢寶德名譽博士學位

三頭六臂集 53-59

三頭六臂集

59

貽笑大方的教育界目標管理

此blog 一再批評
台大在這所謂目標管理上
貽笑大方.....台大今年80周年，將前進世界百大列為目標，且「台大八十，前進百大」的標語在學校、網頁到處可見，甚至於公共汽車上大幅標語 滿市跑 真不像話.....



謝 下次建議他們捐款收據 感謝函等一次完成
看到學生"死亡!"新聞
學校似乎可以考慮函杜邦公司
請求他們支援全員"she 安全 健康環保"之教育

幾天之後的新聞報導
私立淡江大學 南湖國小至善國中 同獲認證

〔記者邱紹雯、陳宣瑜／台北報導〕通過世界衛生組織國際安全社區認證，成為全球第一所「國際安全學校」認證的大學；台北市中正區繼內湖區之後，成為北市第二個安全社區；南湖國小、至善國中也同時獲得國際安全學校認可，其中，至善國中更是全國第一個安全國中。

淡大總務長鄭晃二指出，學校推動健康安全校園已多年，今年第一次申請國際安全學校認證，通過代表肯定學校的努力，並不代表完全沒有安全問題，要推動安全校園，校外住宿與交通安全同樣重要，都需要與社區協力創造安全環境。

至善國中校長鍾正芬認為，每間學校都應該是安全學校，至善透過學生事故傷害統計，找出校園中最容易發生意外的地方是教室，多為擦撞，且男生比率高於女生，因而將第二、三節下課時間延長為20分鐘，鼓勵學生到操場活動，避免在教室奔跑，無形中降低意外比率。

中正區長詹訓明說，透過資源整合與全區31位里長總動員，3年多來從商圈騎樓整平、鄰里公園不安全點查核與維護，連接商家簽署「道路安全志願服務同意書」，並結合餐廳業者與計程車隊發起「安全餐廳、代客叫車」運動，避免酒後肇事，多管齊下降低事故傷害。

台灣社區安全推廣中心主任白璐也感謝中正區前區長孫清泉的推動，孫清泉曾成功打造內湖區成為國際安全社區，轉任中正區後同樣展開安全社區計畫，如今他剛轉任大安區長，也期許大安區能成為下一個國際安全社區。

58

此獎戴明博士等人也榮獲過

PRESS RELEASE

Princeton Professor David Billington Receives ACEC Distinguished Award of Merit

Last update: 2:35 p.m. EST Nov. 11, 2008

WASHINGTON, Nov 11, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Princeton University Professor David P. Billington has received the Distinguished Award of Merit--the highest honor bestowed upon an individual by the engineering industry.

The award was presented by the American Council of Engineering Companies at its Fall Convention in Montreal, Canada.

Calling Billington "a national treasure," ACEC President David A. Raymond recognized the life-long educator for his "outstanding contributions to the field of engineering, pioneering achievements in social and artistic aspects of engineering design, and exemplary accomplishments in engineering education."

Since 1952, the Distinguished Award of Merit has recognized leaders from government, education, science and business for their exemplary contributions. Past recipients include former Presidents Herbert Hoover and Dwight D. Eisenhower, Astronaut Neil Armstrong, Admiral Hyman G. Rickover, Carl Sagan, W. Edwards Deming, and 44 other luminaries.

Billington, who has taught at Princeton University's School of Engineering and Applied Science since 1961, is considered to be one of the top engineering educators of the past century.

In his classes and many published books, including Power, Speed, and Form: Engineers and the Making of the Twentieth Century, Billington speaks of "the grand tradition of modern engineering and the transformation of American society by engineering."

The American Council of Engineering Companies (ACEC) is the business association of America's engineering industry, representing approximately 5,700 independent engineering companies throughout the United States engaged in the development of America's transportation, environmental, industrial, and other infrastructure. Founded in 1909 and headquartered in Washington, D.C., ACEC is a national federation of 51 state and regional organizations.

SOURCE: American Council of Engineering Companies (ACEC)

American Council of Engineering Companies (ACEC)
Alan D. Crockett, 202-682-4301
Cell: 443-995-6364
acrockett@acec.org

57
我們社會"雞對鴉講"的溝通錯亂情況之一例
被某報登上頭版
"聯合報╱記者修瑞瑩／台南市報導】 2008.11.10 01:05 pm 「目前被大量使用的省電燈泡，其實並不省電」，財團法人台灣建築中心綠建築委員會召集人林憲德指出，因政府、學界、教育界「錯誤宣導」，造成普遍使用的日光燈，明明比省電燈泡更省電卻被換掉，「這是天大錯誤」。

「大家都誤以為『省電』燈泡，一定比較省電」，兼任成大建築系教授的林憲德說，「最近系上高層要求把辦公室的日光燈管換成省電燈泡，我才感到這個問題不講實在不行了！」 受能源局委託推廣省電燈泡的工研院副院長曲新生說，政府從未要民眾把日光燈換成省電燈泡；林憲德教授的憂慮沒錯，但恐怕誤解政府宣導意涵。會建議政府，未來宣導需有更明確的說明，就不會再有誤解。 林憲德研究綠建築多年，他發現省電燈泡只比愛迪生發明的鎢絲燈泡省電一點，其他像是日光燈、T5燈（外型像日光燈但比較細）、PL燈（U型燈管）及LED 燈等，都比省電燈泡省電；但翻開環保書籍、政府宣導資料，甚至是教科書，都有「用省電燈泡比較省電」的內容，實在是「最荒謬的說法」。 為什麼會有這樣的錯誤？他指出，應該是台灣的環保界跟著歐美國家腳步導致此結果；歐美國家至今多數仍使用高耗電的鎢絲燈泡，因此環保界推動省電燈泡替代是正確的，但台灣的情況不同。 根據他民國九五年的調查，台灣家庭每戶平均使用十三點四根日光燈管、四點六個PL燈及四點八個省電燈泡與四點二個鎢絲燈泡，更省電的日光燈管在台使用普 遍，但政府卻推動「使用省電燈泡」，讓民眾誤以為省電燈泡比日光燈、PL燈等更省電，花了更貴的錢裝置，還「當了冤大頭」。 他最近與高雄縣環保局合作出版「我愛綠建築」一書，教大家如何從建築生活中節能，書中提到「應使用省電燈具」，硬是被出版社改為「省電燈泡」，讓他好氣又好笑；他建議乾脆把「省電燈泡」的名詞，改為「耗電日光球」，以免誤導民眾。 林憲德也發現不少室內裝修業者，為迎合民眾省電的錯誤認知，都將日光燈的設計改為省電燈泡，賣場展售的大型燈座也都用省電燈泡，讓他覺得問題非常嚴重，呼籲「不要再說用省電燈泡會省電了」。" ----

"針對成大兼任建築系教授林憲德指出「目前被大量使用的省電燈泡其實並不省電」一事，能源局表示，政府推動的「白熾燈汰換計畫」係宣導將白熾燈汰換為省電燈泡或其他高效率燈具，並非將日光燈汰換為省電燈泡。

能源局指出，國內白熾燈的銷售量每年約有2,218萬顆，年用電量約10.8億度，從資料顯示，國內照明用電約占全國總用電量的12％，未來若全面採用省電燈泡照明，節能潛力可達30~80％間。

同時，能源局為推廣高效率照明產品應用，已將照明相關產品納入節能標章產品認證範圍，並自97年啟動全面照明改造，由白熾燈汰換做起，規劃系列提升照明效率應用示範計畫與宣導活動。

能 源局特別指出，白熾燈平均使用壽命約500~1000小時，只有省電燈泡的1/3至1/6，且白熾燈比省電燈泡耗電5倍以上，因此汰換白熾燈不僅可響應減 碳愛地球的行動，也可省下了可觀的電費。100W白熾燈替換為20W的省電燈泡，節約用電達80％，250W的白熾燈替換成55W的省電燈泡，節約用電達 78％，一年可節省1,410元電費。

能源局進一步表示，已裝設日光燈之場所，從發光效率的觀點來看，一般40W型日光燈的發光效率至少為 70lm/W以上，三波長燈管之效率更可達85lm/W以上，而省電燈泡依不同瓦數其發光效率約40~65lm/W之間，因此從節約能源觀點，不應將日光 燈管汰換為省電燈泡。"

56

mimetic

研究採用ISO 9000認證的，究竟屬「威脅型」（coercive）、「規範或道義型」（normative）、模仿型的（mimetic）。


心手相連

Study finds 'cold hands, warm heart' a myth

根據台大九十七學年度第一次校務會議公布的「綠地畫定原則案」，校園規畫小組畫出六塊「最後的綠地」，包括醉月湖、傅園、新總圖周圍綠地、黑森林、社科院與電資學院間綠地（飛機草原）、以及管理學院一、二號館間的草坪，合計為八．一公頃，約占校總區面積七％。

校園規畫小組召集人、建築與城鄉所教授林峰田表示，綠地是校園的「綠色之肺」，除了提供師生休憩、交誼場所，也具備動物棲息、覓食等「都市綠色跳島」功能，是校園永續經營的重點。

55

今晨參加2008 臺灣大學統計研討會*
了解 它/他們的 "教學"狀況
我提一問題 2007年參加歐陽修千年紀念
有篇日本人論文採用統計法分析其文本
幾乎難倒所有台灣師生.....

妙的是一小時之後
有位從美國Bell Lab 相關單位"退休"之朋友
提出台大工學院幾乎沒加入"教學中心"....
我才發現沒細心

之後 那位朋友過來打招呼
原來是1986-89任台灣Motorola 之IC廠品質與可靠性經理(QRA)
簡英哲先生 (博士 可靠性專家)
他說一聽我說話就知道是我
20多年沒見面的老朋友相逢
真樂....

我與他夫婦說等他們美國房產處理過後 2月份好好敘舊

*學校教學內容和重點 多屬傳統教科書的"老派 "
他們都不知道Deming博士對"假說檢定"等的批評

另外令我吃驚的是
台大一年附software package廠商SAS 竟超過千萬元


54
今天讀到這則醫學界幽默/笑話
如果你付不起手術費用
那醫生說 這樣
改改/修正X光片 算便宜點

Quote

"When I told my doctor I couldn't afford an operation, he offered to touch up my x-rays." — Henny Youngman

讓我想起媽上周講的台中榮摠之親歷事件
醫生要看 X片時
才發現根本沒有
以前的"白照"
她以後都不會去這家看病

53

Peter Drucker's 100th 馬陳"會長" 數字

The Drucker School and Institute Announce the Celebration of Peter Drucker's 100th
......Among the activities planned are a summit with corporate leaders; a Lecture Series; and a new text, "The Drucker Difference."

我10月20日參加刁錦寰教授*在臺灣大學統計中心說的 威斯康辛大學統計學系在60-70年代的發展
知道 第四代管理 作者 B. Joiner博士是他們統計實驗室之發展要角

給David信 說漏斗實驗
請參考第四代管理第8章

****

數字多各說各話
只要是何時起點何時終點
前戲算不算

馬您 抗議警施暴 學界串聯靜坐

新華社說是 5分鐘 7分鐘 自我陶醉的諸報說是 10分鐘

The meeting between Mr. Ma and the Chinese envoy, Chen Yunlin, began at 11 a.m. and lasted only five minutes, according to Xinhua, the mainland’s official state news agency. The two officials exchanged gifts: Mr. Chen presented Mr. Ma with a painting of a horse (Mr. Ma’s surname means horse), and Mr. Ma gave Mr. Chen a piece of fine porcelain.


*您好:
刁院士的演講時間為10月20日 11:20~12:10
於臺大博理館201會議室，會場敬備茶點，
歡迎您蒞臨聽講。
統計教學中心 助理 陳泰伸

刁錦寰院士獲頒國立清華大學名譽博士
刁錦寰院士於十月十七日，由清華大學頒授名譽博士，彰顯其在學術研究與教學上的傑出成就，及對清華大學與台灣學術界的貢獻與付出。 刁錦寰院士一九三三年出生，一九五五年畢業於國立台灣大學經濟系，一九五八年取得美國紐約大學企管碩士學位，一九六二年獲威斯康辛大學經濟博士學位後，即在威斯康辛大學任教，一九七三年至七五年並擔任該校統計系系主任。一九八二年起擔任芝加哥大學商學院講座教授，今年榮退。刁院士在學術研究上有傑出卓越且影響深遠的貢獻，特別是時間序列、貝氏統計及環境統計分析都居世界領航的地位，因而獲選為美國統計學會會士及數理統計學會會士，一九七六年榮獲中央研究院院士，二００一年並獲統計與經濟學界兩項至高榮譽Wilks及Julius Shiskin獎。



　　刁院士對國內統計人才的培育，統計學術單位的成立和統計學術活動的推展，向來都熱心參與及襄助。本院的統計科學研究所，國家衛生研究院生物統計組，及清華大學統計所和計量財務金融系等，都是刁院士鼎力規畫協助成立的。為了協助華人統計學者在國際學界的發展，刁院士並創立泛華統計協會，推展太平洋兩岸五地華人在統計領域的互動。泛華統計協會與本院統計所合辦的《中華統計學誌》由刁院士擔任第一任主編，在短短的兩、三年內，立即在SCI中排名前矛，深深提高了國內統計學界在國際的地位。刁院士並促使國際學術會議在台召開，除了多次“台北統計國際會議”外，協助國際統計學術組織IMS (Institute of Mathematical Statistics，是發行Annals of Statistics, Annals of Probability和Annals of Applied Probability重要期刊的組織)在台舉辦區域會議。國內的統計發展，在刁院士長期呵護下持續成長，國際的可見度已越來越高。

新開課程： 進階專題研討(Time Series Analyses) 開課系所：公司理財碩士學位學程 授課老師： 刁錦寰院士 授課時間：9月17日至11月7日， 每週三：2:10-5:00pm; 每週五：9：10-12：00am 11月12日 Project report 11月28日 期末考 　　財金系非常榮幸的禮聘中央研究院院士刁錦寰教授於97年第一學期開設進階專題研討(Time Series Analyses)。刁院士為國際統計學界泰斗，在貝氏統計、環境統計、時間序列分析、介入分析與離群值分析方面都精湛的研究與豐盛的研究成果。 　　刁院士先後在威斯康辛大學與芝加哥大學，教授時間序列分析四十餘年，最近並在北大授課，授課經驗豐富，授課材料完整。除了全套上課講義外，另有全套參考文獻（裝訂成冊）及上課錄影DVD。本課程將從時間序列分析的基礎開始教起，內容涵跨理論與實證分析，有非常多實例分析。學生需修習過統計學與迴歸分析（計量經濟或數理統計）等相關課程，期末學生分組作Project報告，刁院士會提供意見。

對於選修課程的學生，本系將發給： ＳＣＡ學生版；上課全套講義；刁院士在北大上課的錄影ＤＶＤ。 　能有國際大師級的刁院士到本校授課，誠為千載難逢的機會，竭誠歡迎東華的同學選修。

日本的成敗 pomegranate ASQC 史 英國 RAE 電腦系統之要求

『台灣戴明圈：2008年東海戴明學者講座』

新書：『台灣戴明圈：2008年東海戴明學者講座』

台灣戴明圈

── 2008年東海戴明學者講座

A Taiwanese Deming Circle (1964-2008)

目錄
致謝
序言（王晃三博士）7
開場白：故事、寓言（鍾漢清） 11
台灣戴明圈的故事（鍾漢清） 15
簡介戴明、威廉‧謝爾肯巴赫先生（鍾漢清） 23

第一部
導言：戴明到日本（鍾漢清） 35
戴明與台灣(簡記)（鍾漢清） 45
《1950 年戴明博士對日本高階經營者演講》 53
品管九講 譯者序言（劉振） 64
品管九講 品質管制與企業發展（小柳賢一） 67
日本品質管制之回顧（戴明） 74
日本的成就（戴明） 80

第二部
導言 （鍾漢清） 91
《戴明博士四日談》中文版導言（鍾漢清增修） 102
一首值得傳唱的史詩：《轉危為安》（鍾漢清） 109
運用戴明循環（鍾漢清） 118
鳥瞰 Lean/Six Sigma 運動 （1979-2008） （鍾漢清） 128
簡談實驗設計（鍾漢清） 153
由戴明理念談實驗設計之應用（蔡坤祥） 158
西式管理風格必須改弦更張（戴明） 163
戴明博士到 HP，團隊合作（鍾漢清） 172

第三部
2008 年東海戴明學者講座 185
主講人：威廉‧謝爾肯巴赫先生簡介 188
講座之一 193
講座之二 227
講座之三 252

尾聲 Epilog 2008 年戴明淵博知識系統之旅 275

附錄
第四部 東海…人物
播種季 286
東海大學和 英國 Essex 大學的點滴 288
從東海第七宿舍讀司馬賀先生談 30 年的緣份 294
慶祝東海 IE 創立四十年 鍾漢清 297
前進英國省錢大作戰 - Less $ can be more 300

難忘的師長
引言：從漢寶德老師談其他老師 305
陳其寬老師 310
高禩瑾院長 314
劉振老師 322
劉振老師紀念獎 Liu Cheng Award 328
紀念 吳玉印（Yuin Wu）老師 330
王錦堂老師 334
張忠樸先生 338

附錄(二) 從統計制程管制到實驗設計（蔡坤祥 投影片） 339
*****

在18四日的講座中 WWS談到電腦系統要求之交互影響
他當然談到"開機時間" 不過沒考慮到顧客的"極限要求" 這可能還牽涉到MICROSOFT/INTEL之獎勵措施

30 Seconds to Boot Up? That’s 29 Too Many

*****
這個字 pomegranate 是10月18日值得一記的單字
故事是中餐的沙拉美不勝收 WWS夫婦難得拿出相機照一張
餐中並盤點其內容 作記 列出材料單 BILL OF MATERIAL
列到第12/13項 有一晶瑩剔透的子他們無法說出 稱為 神秘之子
問主人 知道是"石榴子"
她又說出一英文 因為石榴石garnet 是她的收藏品

我知道它的英文是P開頭 莎士比亞的作品引用過
然後David 用手機查出是pomegranate和 garnet
現在WWS夫婦終於知道所有的食材了

今天 作林修二集

他有一首日文詩 Canna (美人蕉)的英文翻譯為
As I gaze at it so intently
the cannas's face turns red.
Showing its ruby teeth,
the pomegranate smiles.

再查一下

3 Citations of Pomegranate in Shakespeare:...
*****


There’sa Reason It’s Cheap
New Yorker - United States
從對股利或投資報酬角度看 過去20來年日本公司的績效或提供的經濟價值 是相當差勁的

****
在Deming 博士1950年的演講
三普新先生有摘譯
"什麼叫做統計的品質管制"
Deming 博士文末提到他的朋友
Westinghouse 的 品管處長 Joseph Manuele先生的"搜集數據為品管之第一步" (省略簡譯)等等
這位先生的資料 可以參考
Contributors to the Proceedings of the I.R.E.
Proceedings of the IRE
Volume 38, Issue 12, Dec. 1950 Page(s): 1451 - 1452
在2008年10月 美國品質學會費城分會的刊物
Quality ReviewFile Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - View as HTML
上 刊登數業ASQC創立史
A. W. Shewhart 和 W. Edwards 以及 J. Mannuele等都可以找到資料....

****
我指出 Essex 在研究上全英第十名是什麼意思
現在BBC有報導說明我對於教育品質的評估之懷疑 相當有道理 Research Assessment Exercise