三頭六臂集 601-11

三頭六臂集


611
WSJ
中國經濟刺激計劃的隱藏成本
2009年06月10日08:32

現

在看來﹐中國經濟刺激計劃的成本可能會顯著高於官方數據﹐從而加大了中國政府通過大量舉債來推動經濟恢復高速增長這一努力的風險。

在其他主要國家仍深陷全球經濟下滑泥潭的時候﹐大舉支出幫助中國經濟實現了穩定。這是世界各國政府所採取的經濟刺激計劃中規模最大的一個﹐但中國卻打算將今年的預算赤字維持在國內生產總值(GDP)的3%。這個赤字比例大約是美國希望逐步削減刺激支出後在數年後實現的水平。

Bloomberg News

北京某菜市場上賣菜小販的零錢和收據

實際上﹐中國的正式預算只負擔了2年人民幣4萬億元（5,850億美元）投資計劃的大約四分之一。中國的刺激項目通常能迅速獲得批准﹐由中央政府提供一部分資金﹐大部分資金則需由地方政府補齊。但中國的地方政府卻沒有那麼多錢﹐因為中國的稅收制度將大多數稅收收入都留給了中央政府。受此影響﹐過去幾個月中國地方政府的債務急劇增長──這些負債有著中央政府的間接支持﹐但卻不顯示在其帳面上。

渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)駐上海的經濟學家王志浩(Stephen Green)說﹐沒有免費的刺激計劃。中國政府背負著未公佈的巨額債務﹐我們正在搞清這一數字。

中國政府5月份對刺激項目進行的一次審計發現﹐地方政府只投入了它們需籌集配套資金的48%。審計人員說﹐一些地方政府的財政狀況極其糟糕﹐以致於要用從北京獲得的刺激資金來償還原先的舊債。因此地方政府普遍只能借款投入任何新項目。由於中國的地方政府基本不被允許直接發債﹐它們只能通過政府支持的公司籌集資金。

目前尚無堅實數據顯示有多少貸款從國有銀行流向了此類公司。但今年第一季度中國基礎設施項目總計獲得了人民幣8,948億元的新貸款﹐相當於中國刺激計劃規模的22%﹔中國的基礎設施項目通常都是由有政府關係的公司負責實施的。

中國相對較新的公司債券市場的透明度稍微高一些﹐許多地方政府也通過這個市場籌資。截至5月底﹐地方公司債券的發行總額為人民幣1,025.3億元﹐已經高於2008年全年的683.9億元﹐這些公司債券的發行實際上全都得到了地方政府的間接支持。

中央政府允許甚至鼓勵地方發債﹐因為中央的主要目標是確保刺激計劃能獲得資金。財政部副部長張少春5月底說﹐最關鍵的是要安排好地方政府配套資金的優先順序。

與其他出台了龐大刺激計劃的經濟體一樣﹐中國也在押注未來更快速的經濟增長會減輕當前承受的債務負擔。這一招以前對中國很奏效﹐許多人現在也覺得信心十足。

財政部智庫財政科學研究所的副所長劉尚希說﹐只要經濟實現增長﹐稅收收入就會增加﹐歸還債務也就不是什麼大問題了﹐我的判斷是﹐這些債務的規模是可控的。

然而﹐即使在今年極大地增加開支之前﹐地方政府的債務規模已經十分可觀了。財政科學研究所預計﹐沒有列入預算的地方政府債務約為人民幣4萬億元﹐巧合的是﹐這個數字剛好是刺激計劃的規模﹐相當於國內生產總值(GDP)的16.5%。由於這些隱藏的債務最終都要由中央政府負責﹐中國的國家債務實際上接近GDP的35%﹐而不是官方數據所顯示的18%。

隨著稅收收入大幅下降﹐政府今年的赤字可能超過GDP的3%這一官方目標。政府編制預算時假定今年的稅收收入能增長8%﹐但截至4月份政府的收入較上年同期下降了9.9%。德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)的經濟學家馬駿認為﹐2009年政府收入至多能與上年持平﹐並預計最終的預算赤字將為GDP的4%。

這樣看來﹐中國政府的財政狀況並不像乍看上去那麼強勁﹐雖然仍然好於日本、意大利或美國這類負債嚴重的國家。問題在於﹐沒有列入預算的籌資活動令人幾乎不可能瞭解到情況到底糟糕到了何種程度。

上海財經大學公共金融專家馬國賢主張﹐給地方政府一些實施經濟刺激的自由是必要的﹐但問題在於我們不知道他們在做什麼。這種情況將來可能會成為沉重的財政包袱。

Andrew Batson

610
玉玲
你的MAIL 來得正是時候
我正在猶疑
因為今年或明年都由我主講
如果像去年那樣 有點像我花錢自已作宣傳之嫌
所以我月底在做決定 原則上越簡單越好
我們的重點放在台北活動和出書

"朋友

我們今年10 月 (2009) 的慶祝活動方式
大體同去年相同
台北舉辦一天研討會

10 月 (2009) 的慶祝活動 台北

會出一或二本書當講義..."

609
經過兩個多月的NTU上網現在對每週一次的清掃習以為常了 所以可以和工作人員談天
即使將網路的資訊中斷也無所謂啦 她們才是主角

608
獨美國史坦佛大學的EMAIL 寫法 猜這是一種抗SPAM之作法

first name" AT cs.stanford.edu

607

Reagan Unveiled
KFSM - Fort Smith,AR,USA
Individuals like the late statistician W. Edwards Deming who developed his System of Profound Knowledge and his 14 Points for Management guidelines, ...
Why must government "fix" health care? Since government does few things well, why aren't better minds than politicians leading the way? We know what works. It isn't collectivism and government bureaucrats telling us what type of health care they will allow us to have, it is individuals employing innovation that will bring transformation. Individuals like the late statistician W. Edwards Deming who developed his System of Profound Knowledge and his 14 Points for Management guidelines, using principles known as "systems thinking," and used them as a consultant to Japanese industry to help several Japanese manufacturers create more efficient workplaces, higher profits and increased productivity. (Visit http://www.managementwisdom.com/goodnews.html for an excerpt from a television documentary that spells out how health care can be fixed, starting with hospitals, not government.) Why aren't more people raising the profile of these proven solutions, which have cut costs and improved patient care at hospitals that have implemented them?

606

日本的報導機關/公司的格式比較可參考
大徳所在のETRI(韓国電子通信研究院、院長チェ・ムンギ)

トヨタ、新型プリウスの生産ラインを公開
2009年6月9日8時27分

605
鉛害 美泰兒願罰7567萬
2009-06-07
中國時報
【潘勛／美聯社華盛頓六日電】
　世界最大玩具公司「美泰兒」（Mattel）及其子公司五日與美國官方達成協議，願意就進口並銷售中國代工的塗料含鉛量超標玩具，給付罰鍰二百卅萬美元（約台幣七五六七萬元）。
　美國聯邦「消費者產品安全委員會」（ＣＰＳＣ）與美泰兒及旗下「費雪」（Fisher-Price）公司達成的這項協議於五日公布；委員會指稱，美泰兒知情而違反行之已卅年的玩具塗料含鉛量規定，但美泰兒否認，聲稱自己並非故意。
　美泰兒及費雪兩家公司二○○七年回收近兩百萬件「Big Bird」、「Elmo」、「Dora」等玩具，原因在發現那些玩具的塗料含鉛量超過標準，知名的芭比娃娃附件及「Sarge」玩具車也在回收之列。
　該回收行動引起美國官方注意，也是五日罰鍰協議的起因。
　ＣＰＳＣ表示，本案罰鍰金額創玩具塗料含鉛量違反標準案例之最高紀錄。


604
David Hsu

"網路第一"代表的意義
前一陣子 馬英九作了一個wimax大效 還不忘提醒大家當年他在台北市網路建設的政績

其實 我們的政府官員（包括綠朝政要）只知道猛蓋數位高速公路 但對它的應用與負面影響完全不管


例如我的牙齒被轉診到地區醫院 今天去報到 同樣的檢查再做依次 相同的X光片再照兩張


如此轉診有何意義 又不知道造成健保虧損若干 如果善用網路會有何種影響？


例如網路世界的迷網人口伴隨數位高速公路的提昇而不斷增加 天真的馬總統恐怕真的渾然不知


這地球最大的不幸是三流人物都愛搞政治 企業界也是如此

hc
很有意思的comments 最後一句似乎太偏激
台北市的似乎已無法管理 就委外收費 可又無法提供有成本效益(可靠)的服務


603
潘進丁
林正義
都與我們有些關係

602
這篇不夠身深入

業務最前線／服務業精實革命

【經濟日報╱吳育宏】 2009.06.08 06:05 am

台灣走過景氣低迷的2008年，大部分產業都經歷前所未有的衰退，特別是直接受金融海嘯衝擊的金融業，以及產能閒置的製造業。唯獨最貼近一般民眾日常生活的服務業表現亮眼，成為帶動經濟復甦的希望所託。 由James P. Womack所提出的「精實系統」，源自於對生產流程的改善，旨在以顧客需求為出發、消除浪費、降低成本。這一套協助許多全球大型製造商改善流程的理論，同樣能夠應用在服務業，為提高產業競爭力帶來不同的思維。 精實系統首重「確定價值」。大多數服務業的進入門檻不高，要在眾多競爭者中脫穎而出，端賴企業能夠以顧客的角度去思考，自己究竟提供顧客什麼獨特的價值。 以房屋仲介為例，業界有資源雄厚、組織綿密的上市公司，也有區域型的小型仲介商，不同類型的業者各有其優劣勢，並各擅勝場。不管是大型、全國性的業者，或 者小型、區域性的業者都必須思考：目標顧客在意的是跨區域的資料庫資源、還是在地化的親切感？嚴謹的標準化作業、或者較具彈性的客製化服務方式？自己能夠 在消費者認知中脫穎而出的因素為何？ 其次是確認「價值溪流」並使之「暢流」。價值溪流的內涵包括了實體原物料、產品的「物流」，以及訂單、商業資訊的「資訊流」。 以台灣每年有龐大商機的現調飲料市場（珍珠奶茶、新鮮果汁等）為例，原物料的製作地點、配銷方式，直接影響產品的口感、新鮮度，不重視上游供應鏈管理的店家，很快會被挑剔的消費者淘汰。 另一方面，對於市場商機的掌握，如不同季節、天候、時段的消費偏好，則決定了店家能否準確預測顧客需求。 接著藉由「後拉式生產」來回應顧客需求。不管是飲料或各種餐飲，重點在於顧客想要的是什麼，而不是店家生產了什麼。我們都曾看過一成不變的便當店，堆滿了冷掉的排骨和雞腿，而隔壁腦筋動得快、能夠掌握商機的店家，消費者正為了最夯的蛋塔大排長龍。 精實系統的最後一步驟「完善」，則是永無止盡的目標。特別是服務業與終端消費者緊密關聯，而社會關心的議題、流行趨勢、消費習性隨時都在改變，服務業要不斷檢視自己的商業模式是否能跟得上市場的變化，持續滿足消費者。 製造業的「精實系統」，促成了硬體製造技術的成熟，增進了許多產品的耐用性和普及性；服務業的「精實革命」，則是下一波帶動人類生活品質更上層樓的關鍵。

601
五月底 DAVID HSU與我從GOOGLE BOOKS知道有本好書廉價中
DAVID 打電話去書局問更"多"資訊
服務員說都在公司網路上
妙的是 在GOOGLE上找到的 她們有 不構在她們的網的WEB卻找部到

谷歌計劃推出電子書新服務
谷歌週一證實計劃推出一項新服務﹐將允許出版商直接向消費者出售電子版書籍。此舉將令谷歌與電子商務領頭羊亞馬遜公司展開正面交鋒。

Duncan (Acheson J.) 1904-1994

Duncan (Acheson J.) 1904-1994
Papers (1936-1985)

Ms. 387

Special Collections
The Milton S. Eisenhower Library
The Johns Hopkins University

(1936-1985)

Contact Information

Special Collections

The Milton S. Eisenhower Library

The Johns Hopkins University

3400 North Charles Street

Baltimore, MD 21218

(410) 516-8323

Processed by:					Joan Grattan.
Date completed:					July 1997
Encoded by:					Marius Stan

©2005 The Johns Hopkins University

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Table of Contents

Titlepage

Descriptive Summary

Administrative Information

Provenance

Use Restrictions

Preferred Citation

Biographical Note

Description of Series/Container List

Series 1: Personal

Series 2: Research

Series 3: American Society for Testing and Materials

Series 4: American Society for Quality Control

Series 5: Writings

Series 6: Department of Mathematical Sciences

---

Descriptive Summary

Record Group No.:	Ms. 387
Title:	Duncan (Acheson J.) 1904-1994 Papers (1936-1985)
Creator:	Duncan, Acheson J. (Acheson Johnston), 1904-
Repository:	Johns Hopkins University. Special Collections.
Extent:	7 record center boxes, 1 document box (9.15 linear ft.).
Languages Represented:	English, French
Scope and Content Note:	The papers (1936-1985) of Johns Hopkins professor of statistics, Acheson J. Duncan, are largely research papers that describe his concentration in the fields of bulk sampling, industrial statistics, and quality control. The collection spans the years 1936 to 1985. Along with materials from his teaching and writing career are his investigations in sampling and statistics that were important to two technical organizations, the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) and the American Society for Quality Control (ASQC). The collection has been artificially arranged into 5 series - Series 1: Personal; Series 2: Research; Series 3: American Society for Testing and Materials; Series 4: American Society for Quality Control; Series 5: Writings; and Series 6: Department of Mathematical Sciences. Subject headings assigned by Professor Duncan have been retained. In the files are printed materials, correspondence, computations, draft materials, and Duncan's statistical studies. A further description of items is given in the Series Description and the Container List. A very small group of items forms the Personal Series. Among the items are student notes, his dissertation from Princeton (1936), biographical information and a bibliography of published works. Of interest in Series 2: Research are the files in Box 4 on bulk sampling, the specialized work for which Duncan was well known. In Series 3 and 4 are files that describe Duncan's committee work with the ASTM and the ASQC. Duncan's notes on design and revision of industrial and military standards are included. Printed committee correspondence of the ASQC (1974-1983) is included in Series 6. In Series 5: Writings are a large group of Duncan's annotated drafts for journal articles and some chapters for his texts. Final items are in Series 6: Department of Mathematical Sciences including some lecture notes, department bulletins, and committee reports. Three boxes of material that included course material (1974-1975) and published technical reports written by the faculty of the Department of Mathematical Sciences were transferred to the University Archives. (See Record Group 06-090).

Administrative Information

Provenance

The papers were received from the Department of Mathematical Sciences in 1994. The Accession Number is 94-95.29.

Use Restrictions

Access is unrestricted.

Permission to publish material from this collection must be requested in writing from the Manuscripts Librarian, Milton S. Eisenhower Library, The Johns Hopkins University, 3400 North Charles Street, Baltimore, Md. 21218.

Preferred Citation

Acheson J. Duncan Papers Ms. 387
Special Collections
Milton S. Eisenhower Library
The Johns Hopkins University

Biographical Note

Acheson J. Duncan was an authority in the fields of industrial statistics and quality control during a period when both design of methods and a response to need were required. The application of new statistical methods to the problem of quality control had its origins in the 20th century. Early work in statistical methods and quality control was begun by Walter A. Shewhart of the Bell Telephone Laboratories who published Economic Control of Quality of Manufactured Product in 1931. Shewhart's work was important to statisticians, engineers, military persons, and industrialists who were compelled to develop improved scientific production methods during and after the Second World War. In a tribute to Acheson Duncan, Robert Roy, a former dean of engineering at Hopkins, credited Duncan's work in statistical quality control with aiding the post-war recovery of the Japanese economy.

Acheson J. Duncan was born September 24, 1904 in Leonia, New Jersey. Duncan was educated at Princeton University (B.S., 1923; M.A, 1927; Ph.D., 1936), and after service on the Princeton faculty and in the U.S. Army (1942-1945), he came to The Johns Hopkins University in 1946 as an associate professor of statistics. At Hopkins, he joined the faculty of the Department of Mechanical Engineering's program in industrial engineering. Duncan retired in 1971 as professor emeritus of statistics.

Throughout his career, Duncan wrote extensively on research in his field. His third book, Quality Control and Industrial Statistics, was published in 1952 and has had five editions with translations in Indian and Japanese. He was a contributor to prominent journals in the field including Industrial Quality Control, Journal of the American Statistical Association, and Journal of the Operations Research Society of America. Duncan was a fellow of the American Society for Quality Control (ASQC) and was awarded that society's Shewhart Medal in 1964. He was the first chair of the Baltimore section of the society. He was also a fellow of the American Statistical Society, the Institute for Mathematical Statistics, and a member of the Biometric Society. In 1979, he won the inaugural Harold F. Dodge Award from the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM), of which he was a member. Duncan served too as a consultant to numerous industries and government agencies.

In 1986 an endowed fund, the Acheson J. Duncan Distinguished Visitor Fund at Hopkins, was established. The fund supports an annual visit and lecture by a scholar in mathematical sciences. Acheson J. Duncan died in Baltimore, January 7, 1994.

Description of Series/Container List

Series 1: Personal

1 document box.

Series 1: Personal is a very small series containing a copy of Acheson Duncan's dissertation from Princeton (1936) and student notes from Princeton. There are lecture note and correspondence with Horace Hotelling from whom Duncan took a non-matriculating class at Columbia in 1931. The prestigious award, "The Shewhart Medal," awarded to Duncan in 1964 from The American Society for Quality Control is part of this series. (The award in filed in Oversize Drawer 7 in the Spec Coll workroom.) Some biographical information and a bibliography of published work complete the series.

Arranged by subject.

Box			Contents
1			Biography, Bibliography
1			Dissertation, Princeton, 1936. Studies in the process of trade adjustment with special reference to the international trade of South Africa, 1886-1934.
1			Student notes. Columbia U.; Princeton
1			Schultz lectures.
1			Harold Hotelling lectures.
1			Harold Hotelling notes.
1			Harold Hotelling correspondence.
1			Shewhart Medal 1964 (Filed in Oversize Drawer 7 - MSS workroom, A-Level)

Series 2: Research

3 record center boxes.

Acheson Duncan's research centered mainly on the economic design of control charts and the sampling of bulk materials. In Series 2: Research are papers that describe Duncan's work in these fields as well as his research for industrial applications. In Boxes 2 and 3, filed alphabetically by subject, are files that contain Duncan's computations, notes, correspondence with industries, design of experiments, control studies, and analysis of processes. In Box 4 are files on sampling that have been grouped separately because they are representative of the specialized work in the field of statistical quality control for which Duncan was well known. The materials in this last box of the series describe research in bulk sampling, distribution, testing, and simulations.

Arranged by subject.

Box			Contents
2			American Statistical Society MD Chapter. 1979-1980
2			ANOVA & Regression
2			Army Calibration Study Committee 2 folders
2			Audit sampling
2			Automatic Meter Calibration Study 2 folders
2			Becking, Charles A.
2			Calculation of manufacturer's average fuel economy - statistical considerations. 1976
2			Calibration
2			Climax Molybdenum Co.
2			Compliance sampling
2			Continuous sampling plans. 1972
2			Conveyor belt
2			Correlation & regression
2			Data for charts
2			Delco-Remy 1973
2			Deming, W. Edwards
2			Dept. of Defense 1976
2			Design of Experiments II
2			Design of P-charts 1973
2			Dodge, Harold
2			Double interval sampling
2			Design of experiments
2			Fertilization study
2			Further remarks on correlation
2			Graphic method of correlation 1982
2			Harmonic analysis
2			Hotelling, Harold 1955
2			Index numbers
2			Industrial experimentation
2			Integral equations
2			International trade
2			Isolated lots
2			Jebe, Emil
2			Kurtosis
2			Lockheed-Georgia Co.
2			Lot plot sampling
3			Masland Carpets
3			Mathelot, P.
3			Miles-Quackenbush tolerances
3			Mixing
3			Monsanto Chemical Company
3			Multivariate analysis 2 folders
3			Multinomical distribution
3			National research Council. Assembly of Engineering
3			New York Academy of Sciences. 1964
3			NIOSH Monitoring Programs
3			NIOSH Programs
3			Non-parametric tests
3			Operating characteristics of randomization tests
3			Page, E.S.
3			PERT Program Evaluation and Review Technique
3			Phi Beta Kappa
3			Power mixtures
3			Process capability studies - The Span Plan
3			Precision & Accuracy
3			Quality control charts for number defective. 1979
3			Quality control
3			Regression analysis
3			Regression when both variables subject to error
3			RELIA-Com
3			Response surface analysis
3			Risk analysis
3			Sampling - See Box 4
3			Seasonal variations
3			Serial correlation
3			Schilling, Edward G. 1986
3			Spacing in regression analysis
3			Stochastic processes
3			Theory of [figure] distribution
3			Union of Japanese scientists and engineers. 1967
3			Test for a Weibull distribution
3			U.S./Japan seminar
3			Uniroyal. Grading of tires
3			Weilbull distribution
3			Willner, O.
3			Wu, S. M.
4			ASTM sampling. 1955-1958
4			Acceptance sampling 1956-
4			Bulk sampling 8 folders
4			Continuous sampling
4			Continuous variables sampling plans
4			Double sampling plans
4			Hypergeometric solution
4			Manual on bulk sampling 2 folders
4			New material on bulk sampling 1961
4			Notes on Cochran: Lectures on sampling
4			Notes on sampling plans
4			Plan for scientific sample testing of Watt hour meters
4			Proposal for sampling inspection of lighting compensated meters
4			Proposed sampling plan prepared for ConEd Co. of NY
4			Sampling distribution
4			Sampling from a conveyor belt and auto correlation 1962
4			Sampling materials
4			Sampling methods
4			Sampling of bulk material
4			Sampling plans
4			Sampling simulations 1946-
4			Shortest distance applied to bread sampling

Series 3: American Society for Testing and Materials

1 record center box.

The American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM), founded in 1898, is a scientific and technical organization formed for "the development of standards on characteristics and performance of materials, products, systems, and services." The Society operates through its main technical committees and subcommittees. The ASTM publishes annually The Book of Standards used by buyers/sellers in contracts; scientists and engineers in laboratories; architects and designers in plans; and government agencies in codes, regulations, and laws.

Much of Acheson Duncan's work with ASTM was done within Committee E-11. In 1960 he was appointed to Committee E-11 on Quality Control of Materials and to sub-committee II on Sampling of Bulk Materials. In 1961 he became secretary of Committee E-11 (later named Committee on Statistical Methods). Duncan and other committee members produced Designation E 300 - Standard Practice for Sampling Industrial Chemicals. The standard was approved in 1973 and reapproved in 1983. (The standard, E-300, is described in Section 6: Paints, Related Coatings, and Aromatics and Section 15: General Products, Chemical Specialities, and End Use Products in the Annual Book of ASTM Standards.).

In Series 3 are correspondence, computations, research articles, draft material, statistical studies, and Duncan's notes on terminology. The largest part of the series is related to Committee E-11. Of interest is a file on a proposed manual on bulk sampling (1977), a project of interest to Duncan and a colleague, Emil H. Jebe. Final items are related to defense work on military standards during the 1960s.

Arranged topically.

Box			Contents
5			Calibration
5			Committee D-4 1968-1973
5			Committee E-11 1970-1982 (16 folders)
5			Correspondence 1980
5			Designation D2777-72
5			Manual on bulk sampling 1977
5			Revision of E-300 (2 folders)
5			Standard practice for establishing consistent test method tolerances
5			Terminology
5			Project Threshold
5			Proposed redraft of Mil-Std 781c 1977
5			Mil-Std 105D 1962-1963
5			Mil-Std 1235a (Mu) 1959-1962

Series 4: American Society for Quality Control

1 record center box.

Industrialists and manufacturers were challenged during the Second World War to find techniques for weapons perfection and improved production methods. In the national interest, groups of persons responsible for the quality of manufactured products formed small groups to share information. When emergency conditions ended, local control societies joined to form the American Society for Quality Control (ASQC) in 1946. In July of 1997, the society's name was changed to American Society for Quality.

Duncan was one of the founders of the Baltimore section of ASQC in 1953. He was a member of the editorial board and participated in national and regional conferences. In Series 3 are correspondence, newsletters, revision work on standards, computations, research papers, and meeting agendas. Statisticians, manufacturers, and quality control specialists from the United States eventually joined with international colleagues to form the International Organization for Standardization. Final items in this series relate to Duncan's participation in the ISO 1973-1982. Printed material in these files relates to drafts of test applications for the development of international standards. Some of this material is in French.

Arranged by subject.

Box			Contents
6			Newsletters Baltimore Section 1969-1979
6			Baltimore Section 1947-
6			Meetings. Baltimore. 1953
6			Comments on Draft 2, June 1977
6			Committee correspondence:
				1974-1975
				1975
				1977 (3 folders)
				1978-1980 (2 folders)
				1979
				1981
				1982
				1982
				1983
				1983
6			Consumer product safety 1974
6			Compression between economically designed Cusum and Shewhart charts for control charts. Survey return. 1956
6			Cusum charts. 1977
6			Outline of talk on Cusum charts
6			History
6			ISO/DIS 4259
6			Standards Group
6			Statistical Standards Committee of the Statistics Division 1980-1983
6			Task Force Mil. STD 414
6			Draft TC69/SC6 N26. Conformity with specifications
6			ISO/TC 69/SC 6
6			International Organization for Standardization:
				Draft TC69/SC6 N26. Conformity with specifications
6			ISO/TC 69/SC 6,
6			ISO Discussion Papers:
				1973
				1976
				1980
				1982
				1982
6			Comments on ISO draft proposal 8258. Shewhart control charts,
6			Comments on ISO DP3534 Rev. 2 1984,

Series 5: Writings

1 record center box.

Throughout his career, Acheson Duncan wrote extensively in the field of statistical quality control. With James G. Smith, he co-authored, Elementary Statistics and Applications (1944) and Sampling Statistics and Applications (1945). Duncan's most notable work was his third book, Quality Control and Industrial Statistics, which has had five editions and has been published in both India and Japan.

In Series 5: Writings are examples of Duncan's work on book chapters and for his many published articles. The papers are both holographic and annotated typescript. The chapter numbers and titles have been copied from Duncan's original files. Notes, computations, correspondence, and writings of colleagues, are often included in the files. Some of the chapter titles correspond to Duncan's collaboration with James G. Smith. All of the writings are related to Duncan's major interest in sampling and questions of quality control. Also in the series are drafts of articles which Duncan published in scientific journals. The drafts are filed by title but do not always include dates or full citations. Full citations could be found in bibliographies compiled by Duncan in Series 1, Box 1.

Arranged topically.

Box			Contents
7			Chapters:
				II Probability
				XI
				XVII Estimation of lot and process characteristics
				XIX Sampling distributions of correlation coefficient, Z transformation
				XXIII & XXIV Analysis of variance
				XXV Differences between purposes, means, variances
				XXV
				XXVII Design of variances
				XXVII Tests of normality
				Appendix
				Appendix Ch. 5
7			Articles:
				"Analysis of variance regression and design of experiments." 1970
				"A case study of the sampling and analysis of bulk material."
				Bulk sampling
				"The challenge of bulk sampling: problems and lines of attack."
				"Derivation of sampling plans for determining compliance with a standard for the mean of a distribution."
				"Differential analysis of the accident record of six types of single aircraft used in air carrier flying, 1949-1951"
				"The economic design of x charts when there is a multiplicity of assignable causes." 1971
				"The economic design of P-charts to maintain current control of a process: some numerical results."
				"A general review of quality and quality-control standards."
				"Group #3"
				"Kurtosis and the Kurtosis Parameter 1/2"
				"Least squares and regression."
				"Memorandum on lot acceptance sampling with special reference to a isolated lot and AQL acceptance sampling."
				"Observation on cluster-variance functions." 1972
				"Observations on some models for sampling from a conveyor belt."
				"Operating characteristics of the Dryoff acceptance procedure."
				"Operating characteristics of fertilizer inspection plans based on the Miles-Quackenbush tolerances illustrated for mixed fertilizer with 10% nitrogen."
				Outline of talk on process capability studies.
				"Problem on fractional replication for a design of experiments course."
				"Practice for use of measures of precision of a test method and product variability."
				"Quality control and industrial statistics."
				"Quality control, statistical."
				"A simplified procedure for the use of orthogonal polynomials."
				"Sampling of bulk material."
				"Some recent developments related to Mil.Std. 414."
				"Some remarks on design of control chart inspection plans for quality control."
				"Suggested sample design for determining average fuel economy of a manufacturer's fleet of cars.
				"Systematic belt sampling and autocorrelation."
				"Variance estimates for sampling a stream of bulk material."
				"What sampling plan to use."

Series 6: Department of Mathematical Sciences

1 record center box.

The Department of Mathematical Sciences had its origins in 1946 when an undergraduate curriculum in industrial engineering was first introduced. In 1947, Robert H. Roy was appointed Associate Professor of Industrial Engineering in the Department of Mechanical Engineering. Roy's appointment led to the creation of the Department of Industrial Engineering in 1950. The 1950s saw an increasing demand for engineering and business graduates, and by the end of the decade, faculty specialties extended from industrial organization and management to statistics and accounting. In 1964, the department was renamed the Department of Operations Research and Industrial Engineering. In the 1970s the Department expanded dramatically and became one of the largest departments in the University. In 1973 the Department was renamed the Department of Mathematical Sciences.

A more detailed history and records of the Department of Mathematical Sciences are available in the University Archives. Record Group 06-090. The Robert H. Roy Papers Ms. 354, a small collection of mostly published material, is also available in Special Collections.

Acheson Duncan came to Hopkins in 1946 as a professor of statistics and joined the faculty of the Department of Mechanical Engineering's program in industrial engineering. During his career at Hopkins, he referred to himself as a professor of statistics. He taught classes in quality control and industrial statistics, analysis of variance and regression, experimental design, and analysis of reponse surfaces.

In Series 6 are lecture notes, course material, departmental reports, seminar papers, committee reports, departmental bulletins, and agendas for the General Assembly meetings for the School of Arts and Sciences. Most of the material appears to have been collected by Acheson Duncan during the period after 1971 when he was professor emeritus.

Three record center boxes containing department files and copies of tech reports produced in the department were transferred to the University Archives, July 1997. This material will be added to the Records of the Department of Mathematical Sciences. RG 06-090.

Arranged by subject.

Box			Contents
8			"Applied Matrix Computations Lecture Series 1977"
8			"Annual Reports: Department of Mathematical Sciences 1974-1981."
8			"Causation Lecture Notes."
8			"Computer Funds"
8			"Course Material: Statistics and Quality Control."
8			"Department Computer Funds."
8			"General Assembly 1974-1980."
8			"General Assembly 1981-1983."
8			"Lecture Notes: Operations Research 1960."
8			"Lecture Series 1975/1979: Part 2."
8			"Lecture Series 1978."
8			"Lecture Series 1979: Mathematical Sciences Lecture Series"
8			"1981 Lecture Series-Darwin Klingman; 1982 Lecture Series-Ralph L. Disney."
8			"Maryland Hall Committee 1961-62."
8			"Mathematical Sciences Bulletin 1979-1983."
8			"Memos: Department Information 1980-1985."
8			"School of Engineering."
8			"Minitab."
8			"Optimization of Statistics by Richard Tapin and James Thompson, June 1976."
8			"Program Guide 1979."
8			"Rockafellar Lecture (R. Tyrrell Rockafellar) June 1973."
8			"Department of Mathematical Sciences Seminar Announcements."
8			"Seminar in Academic Exposition."
8			"Statistics 505: Graphic Method of Correlation."
8			"Statistics at the Johns Hopkins University."
8			"Incomplete."
8			"Dept. of Mathematical Sciences--Goldman, A.J. Tech. Report# 368 August 1982."
8			"Marquardt, Don."
8			"Notice of Seminars."
8			"Sophomore Reading in Statistics."

W. Edwards Deming From Economist.com

Guru

W. Edwards Deming

Jun 5th 2009
From Economist.com

W. Edwards Deming (1900-1993) was a physicist/statistician with a PhD from Yale who applied the ideas of a little-known American mathematician, Walter Shewhart, to business processes. Deming later said later that Shewhart had an “uncanny ability to make things difficult”. There was always a need for an interpreter of his findings. The most surprising thing is that Deming did not do this first in his native America, but in Japan.

Born in Iowa and raised on his grandfather’s chicken farm, Deming joined the US Census Bureau in 1939 and, after the second world war, was sent to Japan to advise on a census that was taking place there. He stayed on to advise Japanese businessmen how to inject quality into their manufacturing industry. At the time Japan was notorious in the western world for the shabby goods that it produced. By the late 1970s the roles had been reversed: Japan was producing the quality stuff while America’s car industry was in crisis and its standard-bearers of quality were Coca-Cola and McDonald’s.

It gave Americans some solace at the time to discover that behind the Japanese quality miracle had been two Americans that few of them had heard of: Joseph Moses Juran and W. Edwards Deming. Juran, an electrical engineer, had also gone to Japan after the second world war and begun to teach middle managers about quality. Juran focused more on the human-relations aspects of quality, while Deming’s approach involved demonstrating that all business processes are vulnerable to a loss of quality through statistical variation. Management, he argued, was responsible for 85% of that variation. Reduce the variation; increase the quality, was the foundation of his advice.

Deming’s method for bringing this about was built on what became known outside Japan as the “quality circle” and inside Japan as the “Deming circle”. These circles consisted of groups of workers who sought to improve the processes that they were responsible for in four stages. First came the planning of how to do it followed by the implementation of that plan. Then workers would check the variance from anticipated outcomes and take any corrective action that was necessary.這可能將品管圈和pdca等搞混

If I had to reduce my message for management to a few words, I’d say it all had to do with reducing variation.

To this day, Japanese industry awards a prestigious annual prize to companies that have demonstrated exceptional improvements in quality. It is called the Deming Prize.

Deming was lauded on his return to the United States and conducted seminars around the country until he was in his 90s. Several big American firms, including Ford Motor Company, came to credit him with transforming their product quality and their profits. Over a number of years he came to distil his advice for managers into “14 points”, which ranged from quality-related items such as “Cease dependence on mass inspection. Build quality into the product from the start”, to more human issues such as “Remove barriers to pride in workmanship”.

Deming was a modest man who loved music and sang in a choir. He was awarded the Order of the Sacred Treasure, second class, the highest Japanese award ever given to foreigners.

Notable publication

“Out of the Crisis: Quality, Productivity and Competitive Position”, Cambridge University Press, 1986; 2nd edn, MIT Press, 2000 這書沒這副標題

More management gurus

This profile is adapted from “The Economist Guide to Management Ideas and Gurus”, by Tim Hindle (Profile Books; 322 pages; £20). The guide has the low-down on more than 50 of the world’s most influential management thinkers past and present and over 100 of the most influential business-management ideas. To buy this book, please visit our online shop.