三頭六臂集 649-659

三頭六臂集

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口蜜腹劍: 雷化民回憶錄

口蜜腹劍: 雷化民回憶錄. 作者：雷化民/著;
出版社：一橋出版; 出版日期： 1998年08月10日;
語言： 繁體中文 ISBN： 9579845174;

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精彩的台灣職業訓練貢獻者 說明台灣政府 天主教會 官商勾結 外行人浪費資源 貪污舞弊

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過去10年精實模範氅廠商 在經營上豪賭 終於失敗啦
Troubled Porsche drops request for federal loan

Troubled German luxury sports car maker says it's dropping plans to reapply
for a loan from state owned KfW bank. Meanwhile, Qatar has launched a
concrete offer to invest in Porsche.

The DW-WORLD Article
http://newsletter.dw-world.de/re?l=ew16f6I44va89pI8

657
豈只是質量問題
上海塌樓事件凸顯中國建築質量問題
上海一座幾乎完工的新建樓房轟然倒塌﹐一名工人不幸死亡。這一事件暴露出建築安全隱患在中國普遍存在﹐即使是在大城市。


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The Trouble with Performance Reviews
BusinessWeek - USA
As W. Edwards Deming, the father of the quality movement, taught a long time ago, company performance often results more from variations in systems than ...

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針對台股今天當機事件，消基會秘書長吳家誠表示，NCC應調查中華電信所謂「突發性異常」真正原因；金管會應瞭解部分券商系統為何未在中華電信更換通訊卡片後即恢復正常。

　　台北股市今天發生約35分鐘當機事件，影響大台北地區券商委託單無法立即送到台灣證券交易所，約43%交易受到影響。

　　證交所表示，這並非交易所系統當機，而是中華電系統問題，屬不可抗力因素，不需負賠償責任。

　　中華電信對此表示，事件起因其負責與證交所進行資料傳輸的網路交換機發生「突發性異常」；已於15分鐘內查明原因，並在第一時間內恢復正常。

　　吳家誠接受中央社記者電話採訪時表示，「是否不可抗力，不是證交所或中華電信說了算」！

　　他認為，國家通訊傳播委員會（NCC）應調查事件是否與中華電信本身管理疏失或維修問題有關。

　　另外，由於不同券商系統恢復時間有快有慢；他表示，行政院金融監督管理委員會應瞭解個別券商本身系統有無問題，或是本身員工動作太慢造成系統恢復有時間差。

　　他說，消費者在事件中恐難舉證受損、並據以求償；因此消保單位也應要求業者提供相關佐證資料、對事件提出合理解釋。

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讀者讀過戴明修練ii 可將此列入另一例子

戴爾網站價格又爆烏龍！

台灣戴爾網站二十五日晚間出現十九吋ＬＣＤ螢幕五百元、二十吋 ＬＣＤ螢幕標價只賣九九九元，網友發現後在ＰＴＴ、噗浪、推特、Mobile01等網站奔相走告，大批網友瘋狂下訂，有人一口氣線上刷卡狂訂兩千台，也有 不少人一刷數百台，戴爾昨發表聲明稿表示，正深入了解整體訂單狀況，將直接與顧客聯繫，會提供在這段期間下單的消費者合理折扣。

台灣戴爾表示，液晶螢幕標錯價格事件是發生在二十五日晚上十一點到隔天早上七點，消息很快在各主要微網誌蔓延，網友呼朋引伴湧進戴爾網站下單。

對照該價格出錯的二十吋液晶螢幕特價五千八百元計算，若以九九九元銷售，每台損失高達近五千元之多，台灣戴爾昨日上午緊急開會，但不願公布這段時間訂購的數量以及損失金額，僅表示會提供在這段時間下單的消費者合理的折扣。

有網友表示，台灣戴爾直銷購物網站已非第一次標價出錯，業者為了維護商譽，最終也忍痛出貨，但因為網頁出錯時間從前晚十一點到昨天早上七點，有網友以「暴動搶購」形容這一波搶購潮，不少網友為確保交易程序完成，還趕在下單後立刻以信用卡完成付款。

事實上，前年與去年戴爾中國網站也發生類似標價錯誤，當時中國戴爾決定在報價錯誤期間下訂單的顧客，可以實際定價的七五折購買產品，每張訂單限購五台，由於訂單高達上千張，估計中國戴爾當時損失了千萬人民幣以上。

近年來購物網站標錯價格事件不勝枚舉，一般公司多半會與下單的消費者個別道歉並給予部分折扣或補償，以期取得諒解，部分消費者會同意取消訂單，至於不願取消訂單的消費者，若無法取得共識，常會對簿公堂，解決爭端。

653
臺灣海基會董事長江丙坤29日出席一個兩岸產業經管論壇時表示，盼望透過兩岸生產力機構合作，積極幫助台商在困難環境下順利升級，將來變成大陸經濟成長的一個重要推手。
　
　根據大陸媒體中新社報導，臺灣的中國生產力中心與大陸的中國生產力促進中心協會即日起在臺北國際會議中心舉行為期兩天的“第三屆寰宇生產力產業經管交流論壇”。
　
　江丙坤在致詞時表示，去年以來，兩岸透過海基會、海協會會談，排除了民間交流的種種障礙，今後兩岸發展的主力是企業家。
　
　他說，現在兩岸產業合作透過“搭橋專案”在一一推動，企業界龍頭經過溝通變成朋友、變成合作夥伴，不但可實現優勢互補，更可提升兩岸人民福祉。他也表示，勞力密集產業的台商在廣東等地面臨困境，需要兩岸共同推動升級轉型，盼兩岸生產力機構，讓台商渡過難關。
　
　中國生產力促進中心協會理事長石定寰指出，金融海嘯對兩岸經濟都有重要影響，大陸更清醒、冷靜思考未來發展方向；傳統的發展模式難以實現長久、可持續快速發展，大陸因此加強經濟轉型，依靠“提高創新能力、建設創新型國家”這樣的道路實現經濟社會發展。
　
　他表示，兩岸中小企業都面臨一個轉型升級的問題；在新的挑戰面前，應加強企業經營管理能力，自主創新、提升人力資源素質和市場行銷能力，“練好內功”。
　
　去年十二月，中共中央台辦主任王毅宣佈加強兩岸合作應對金融危機十項措施。石定寰說，大陸方面建立的台資企業轉型升級服務團，同月在東莞開啟服 務行動，包括國家工程技術研究中心，國家重點實驗室、大學研究院所、金融等有關機構人士，從技術創新、轉移各方面協助台商應對挑戰。
　
　石定寰並倡議，兩岸社會化服務組織之間也應建立“搭橋專案”，整合智庫資源為兩岸產業合作提供有效服務。
　
　當前金融風暴下，科技產業的企業生產力提升與轉型升級議題備受關注；此次論壇聚集約二十位大陸知名專家學者與四百餘位臺灣業界人士，主題即“兩岸企業生產力精進暨轉型升級策略”。
　
　臺灣經濟部長尹啟銘在致詞中表示，大環境景氣不利，但市場潛藏許多商機，產業合作交流是兩岸創造雙贏的重要契機。
　
　他透露，兩會領導人第三次會談促成大陸來臺灣投資的機會，相關辦法將在六月三十日公佈；今年底前臺“經濟部”將進行為期半年的宣導工作，邀大陸產業界來台投資考察外，臺灣方面也規劃到大陸招商引資，希望能促成兩岸投資交流與產業合作。
　
　尹啟銘也表示，自今年二月開始推動的洽簽兩岸經濟合作架構協定(ECFA)，最重要目的就在於建構兩岸產業、經濟合作交流的穩定平臺；其中，將包含製造業、服務業、投資方面及投資保障等，就是要塑造兩岸產業合作機會。
　
　二00六年，臺灣的中國生產力中心與大陸的中國生產力促進中心協會舉辦首次寰宇生產力產業經管交流論壇，定位為產業發展、經營管理與學術研究領域的知識平臺，持續推動產業界實質交流。
　
　此次論壇中，臺灣經濟研究院副院長龔明鑫、國家發改委社會發展所所長楊宜勇等二十多位專家，將發表臺灣新經濟產業、金融危機應對策略及經濟新模式等方面相關論文。

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中國
　十一屆全國人大常委會第九次會議27日表決通過修訂後的統計法規定，國家統計數據以國家統計局公佈的數據為準。

　　2008年12月召開的十一屆全國人大常委會第六次會議對統計法修訂草案進行了初次審議。修訂草案中規定，國務院有關部門統計調查取得的統計資料與國家統計局取得的統計資料有重復、交叉的，應當與國家統計局協商一致後公佈。

　　有些常委會委員和地方、部門提出，向社會公佈的政府統計資料應當客觀、真實，這裡規定的“ 協商一致”含義不清楚。

　　全國人大法律委經同財經委和國務院法制辦、國家統計局研究認為，為避免出現政府統計機構和政府其他部門公佈的統計數據不一致，影響政府統計數據 公信力的情況，建議在修訂草案規定的國家統計數據以國家統計局公佈的數據為準的基礎上，將修訂草案中的上述規定修改為：政府有關部門統計調查取得的統計數 據，與本級人民政府統計機構統計調查取得的統計數據不一致的，不得公佈。

　　為此，修訂後的統計法規定，國家統計數據以國家統計局公佈的數據為準。

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撫今傷昔─陳文成博士逝世28週年紀念／楊維哲教授

"......人們對於命運常有誤解，才會有「命運的眷顧」，「命運的作對」，這種辭彙。

我是讀機率論的，文成教授是個統計學家( 應用機率論者 )，機率論經常涉及「獨立性」， 這是素人不太了解的概念。

若是變量X 與Y 相獨立，「請問： 已知X很大， 那麼是否統計上可以說Y比較可能也很大？」，我們告訴提問者：「不對」。他或她通常就自己推論說：(那麼就反方向，) 「統計上可以說Y 比較可能是小的。」

實際上獨立性是說：知道X很大，不能因而推測Y 可能也很大，也不能因而推測Y 可能小。Y與X不相干。......"


我們通常教孩子( 或學生)：

不要相信命運！ 命運是你自己決定的！

實際上這樣子的德育還不完整。

事實上有些事是有命運的，

但那是你不用煩惱的！

http://blog.roodo.com/michaelcarolina/archives/9325789.html

650

June 28, 2009
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649

《中英對照讀新聞》Tokyo fights burglars with flower power 東京動用花兒力量打擊盜賊

◎俞智敏

A Tokyo district plagued with burglaries has turned to planting flowers to beautify its streets and help stamp out crime.

東京一飽受竊案所苦的地區，透過種花美化街道來協助消除犯罪。

"’Operation Flower’ began about three years ago. By planting flowers facing the street, more people will be keeping an eye out while taking care of the flowers or watering them," said Kiyotaka Ohyagi, a Suginami City official. "The best way to prevent crime is to have more people on the lookout."

據杉並區官員大八木清高表示，「『種花行動』約在3年前展開。透過在街道旁種花，有更多人會在照顧花或澆花時留意周遭環境。」「防止犯罪最好的辦法就是讓更多人保持警戒。」

Suginami, with a population of 528,800, saw a record 1,710 break-ins in 2002.

杉並區人口約有52萬8800人，2002年卻創下1710起闖空門案的犯罪新高紀錄。

When a neighbourhood watch group found that there were fewer burglaries in buildings on flower-lined streets, Suginami decided to kick off Operation Flower and asked volunteers to plant seeds on side streets and in front of their homes.

當一個鄰里守望互助組織發現，在種滿鮮花街道兩邊的大樓竊案發生率較低時，杉並區決定發起「種花行動」，並呼籲志工在小巷裡和自家門前也種下花苗。

The flowers are part of a wider crime prevention campaign. The district also has 9,600 volunteer patrollers and 200 security cameras set up in areas where there are frequent break-ins. It also emails crime information daily to residents.

種花只是預防犯罪廣泛行動的其中一環。杉並區還有9600位巡守員，並在竊盜率最高的區域安裝了200具保全攝影機。區公所還會每天寄發犯罪情報電子郵件給居民。

Suginami says its efforts have paid off, with the number of burglaries falling to 390 in 2008, down almost 80 percent from 2002.

杉並區表示這些努力已經奏效，去年該區的竊案數量已降至390起，比2002年減少了近八成。

歡送Bill Scherkenbach先生, GM case

歡送Bill Scherkenbach先生回美國



"餞別宴"
沒辦成
所以它算上週在天母請他的日本料理 他拿起相機照一次菜色



****
我打算請簡易晚餐 可能參加QKC
一齊討論專業顧問和他的台灣心得
九點請他喝點酒 十點送他回旅館
有興趣參加者請通知一聲


你知道計程車裡有電視可以看還有花香世界上只有一個地方有！（一直到現在，我遇到車子乾淨有禮貌的司機，還是很想給小費）


6/24/2009 從台大後門搭計程車去 內湖植福路的金殿唯客多旅館找wws (2025)
NT. 250 很趕 (顧問 高鐵1804 竹北 1938就到台北 不過我忘記內湖線下周一才開通 轉了老半天 在南京東路搭TAXI 司機不載 因為他要知道確確地址才肯)
計程車司機(他也不知道路 不過有我說的美麗華就容易找) ㄧ路上叫我多吃素 要想參加他們ㄧ灌到最高級的三天半"研習" 可以看到我這種罪人般下地嶽之慘狀

GM: What Went Wrong and What's Next

Published:	June 15, 2009
Author:	Staff

Executive Summary:

For decades, General Motors reigned as the king of automakers. What went wrong? We asked HBS faculty to reflect on the wrong turns and missed opportunities of the former industry leader, and to suggest ideas for recovery. Key concepts include:

• Formed in 1908, General Motors was the world's largest carmaker between 1931 and 2008.
• GM filed for bankruptcy protection on June 1, 2009. In the bankruptcy petition, GM claimed slightly over $82 billion in assets and nearly $173 billion in debts.
• GM's failure of leadership is astounding and ironic given its early history as an innovator, says HBS professor Nancy Koehn.
• GM faces a unique opportunity to retool itself for the 21st century, says visiting scholar Daniel Heller. Meanwhile, the U.S. government administration is embarking on an interesting experiment in political economy, according to professor Joseph Bower.

Is there a light at the end of the tunnel for General Motors? Or are those just headlights from an oncoming train? Among Harvard Business School faculty, it depends on whom you ask.

The carmaker—home to such storied brands as Cadillac, Buick, and Chevrolet—enjoyed a 46 percent share of the American auto market in the 1950s. The industry leader, unbothered by competition and looming threats, began to coast on its former glory, however, and bypass such areas as consumer preferences and industry innovation. By February 2009, GM's market share sputtered and stalled at less than 19 percent. GM declared bankruptcy on June 1, 2009.

"All stakeholders must work together to make GM's bankruptcy filing a comma rather than a period in the storied history of this American corporate icon." -Daniel Heller

Its future appears uncertain at best—yet expensive nonetheless. The government has pledged $50 billion to the company, with no assurances American taxpayers will recoup any of that investment.

How should business leaders learn from this latest turning point? HBS faculty weigh in.

Daniel Snow, Assistant Professor of Business Administration:

GM will emerge from this crisis with a dramatically weakened portfolio of both current and future products. Although much attention has been focused on electric cars, hybrids, and fuel cells, I believe that the key player in the carbon-conscious automobile market of the next ten years is the compact car, especially one powered by a diesel engine. With very clean emissions, 60 and 70 MPG fuel consumption, and lots of power, diesel compacts would provide stiff competition to hybrids. But GM has just lost its ability to develop small cars with the sale of its Opel subsidiary to Canadian auto parts maker Magna International and the German government. This is a great deal for Magna, but terrible for Chevrolet. GM's best small cars are engineered (and some are manufactured) by Opel in Europe.

But it's not just about design and engineering. The supply chains and factory networks that provide these cars will need to be divided. GM's explicit strategy of the last decade has been to foster areas of specialization within its subsidiaries around the world—small cars in Europe, subcompacts in Asia, trucks and SUVs in North America—and this has started to yield great results. Now GM (of North America?) will be left with engineering competencies almost exclusively in those same large vehicles likely to be made obsolete by a new 35.5 MPG standard the Administration has promised to implement by 2016.

Daniel Heller, Visiting Scholar:

All stakeholders must work together to make GM's bankruptcy filing a comma rather than a period in the storied history of this American corporate icon. The U.S. cannot afford to lose the thousands of middle-class jobs of GM workers and management, nor the cutting edge R&D that GM does with its suppliers and partner universities. GM faces a unique opportunity to transform its assembly plants and R&D centers into more nimble operations that can sustain its renewed brands far into the 21st Century.

Nancy F. Koehn, James E. Robison Professor of Business Administration:

General Motors was formed in 1908, the same year Henry Ford brought out the first Model T, a car that launched the U.S. industry and revolutionized millions of Americans' lives. Riding the wave of the Model T's success, Ford Motor Company became the undisputed leader of this young market and by the early 1920s, it was producing 60 percent of all the motor vehicles manufactured in the United States and half of those made worldwide. All of these automobiles were Model Ts, offered in one color: black.

"Although there are many factors that contributed to the company's long, slow bleed, the three fundamental issues are management's consistent failure to do the very things that made the business so successful initially." -Nancy F. Koehn

What happened next was both pivotal in shaping the auto industry for much of the 20th century, and in the face of GM's bankruptcy announced recently, terribly ironic. Beginning in the mid 1920s, GM staged an astounding victory against Ford Motor Company. Alfred Sloan, Pierre Du Pont, and other GM executives placed a series of important bets on what American consumers wanted (different makes, models and prices; cars that were status symbols and identity holders as well as transportation sources) and they did so with careful, consistent attention to what the competition was—and was not—doing. As company leaders rolled out this daring strategy, they also created an organizational structure and culture developed to support a multi-product, vertically integrated enterprise. By the mid 1930s, GM's market share had risen to 42 percent while Ford's had fallen to 21 percent. And General Motors had laid the groundwork for decades of industry dominance, offering "a car for every purse and purpose" and pioneering the multidivisional structure that became one of the signal achievements of the modern corporation.

In this context, it is interesting to consider the root causes of General Motor's decline, which has been under way for 30 years. Although there are many factors that contributed to the company's long, slow bleed, the three fundamental issues are management's consistent failure to do the very things that made the business so successful initially.

• First, pay close attention to what is happening to consumers' lives in the context of the larger environment—not only their stated preferences, but their hopes, dreams, wallets, lifestyles, and values.
• Second, keep an equally close eye on the competition.
• And third, understand how a company's structure and culture relate to its strategy. Use all this understanding to place innovative bets. This is what the early leaders of GM did. And this is what several generations of executives—beginning in the 1970s with the first oil shocks and the entrance of Japanese imports—have consistently failed to do.

It has been a failure of leadership as astounding and momentous (and ironic) as the company's early achievement.

Robert D. Austin, Associate Professor:

When I worked in a U.S. auto company in the mid 1990s, we were doing many of the right things. But often, when we ran up against the really tough problems, when we started to feel the real pain associated with real change, we pulled back. We were so profitable then, it was hard to muster the will to make the hard choices. Today, the range of choices has narrowed considerably. Obviously, June 1, 2009 was a momentous day in U.S. business history. Much of the substance of 20th century management was worked out at GM. Let's hope that crisis will summon the will to make the changes that are needed. If not, the next Detroit may be in China, and sooner than we think.

Joseph L. Bower, Baker Foundation Professor of Business Administration:

The GM bankruptcy poses several questions. How did the board and management of a great company ever allow this extraordinary situation to develop? It is easy to point to the labor agreements from the 1950's, and the slow response to the superior engineering and manufacturing of Japanese competitors, and a reluctance to take environmental issues seriously. But these were not overnight developments. Beyond that, did GM's financial controls become too powerful a force for the product engineers to overcome? Did the marketers not see what Toyota was doing with the Camry and Lexus? On another front, what does it mean for the U.S. government to be supporting one competitor against a group of healthy rivals? Is that what our bankruptcy laws were designed to accomplish? Doesn't a healthy industry require less capacity, so that the winning companies can actually prosper? The administration is embarking on an interesting experiment in political economy.

Malcolm S. Salter, James J. Hill Professor of Business Administration, Emeritus:

Last December the U.S. Treasury had no choice but to become GM's "lender of last resort." To have done otherwise would have been devastating for the U.S. and global economy. With the June 1st bankruptcy deal, the U.S. government's role essentially changes from "reluctant" creditor to "reluctant" owner. And the UAW's role shifts to being an owner as well. Since no other private capital has been willing to step forward, these role changes are not necessarily a bad thing—as long as the Administration lives up to its pledge to keep partisan politics out of inter-firm competition by refraining to exercise the legitimate decision rights of equity holders. Ditto for the UAW.

"The June 1st bankruptcy deal and presidential statement open a new chapter on the conduct of industrial governance and American capitalism." - Malcolm S. Salter

But the President left the door slightly open for selective intervention when he pledged non-interference "in all but the most important decisions." What could those decisions be for the government? For the UAW? The June 1st bankruptcy deal and presidential statement open a new chapter on the conduct of industrial governance and American capitalism. This chapter is being written more or less "on the fly." It is now up to Congress and the rest of us to monitor this highly incremental governance strategy before it is either unduly celebrated or castigated by the public and, more importantly, integrated without critique into the nation's industrial policy "playbook."

Dennis Yao, Lawrence E. Fouraker Professor of Business Administration:

The threat of bankruptcy, by allowing the government and General Motors to negotiate important deals with GM's unions and a majority of creditors, went a fair distance toward achieving a restructuring that would make it possible for GM to emerge as a viable long-term player in the automobile industry. Unfortunately, the threat was not enough; hence the actual bankruptcy.

In addition to the usual strategy, resource, and implementation concerns faced by a company emerging from Chapter 11, the "new GM" has an additional set of worries that arise while the primary owners are the U.S. and Canadian governments. While attention to business environment issues is important for all automakers, GM is more likely than most of its rivals to feel strong pressure to pursue public policy goals such as domestic employment that are not normally pursued by the private sector. Domestic employment, of course, is an important justification for the government bail-outs, but inflexibility with respect to employment and compensation has also been part of the original problem. Hopefully, the new GM will soon offer the type of products that will make employment a lesser concern.

More HBS Faculty Opinions in other Publications:

GM and the World We Have Lost
June 3, 2009 - Boston Globe
Richard Tedlow and David Ruben comment on the profound American loss that is the collapse of General Motors.

How GM Wasted 'a Good Crisis'
June 2, 2009 - Wall Street Journal
Bill George discusses the demise of General Motors and the opportunities missed.

Why I Don't Want to Own General Motors
June 1, 2009 - Harvard Business Publishing
Rosabeth Moss Kanter comments on the bankruptcy of GM, calling it a "dangerous precedent."

The Past and Future of General Motors
April 9, 2009 - Huffington Post
Clay Christensen writes on how foreign auto companies disrupted the U.S. auto industry back in the 1960's, and the undeserved removal of Rick Wagoner as CEO.

Editor's picks: HBS Working Knowledge related articles

• CEO Succession: The Case at Ford
• HBS Cases: Porsche's Risky Roll on an SUV
• American Auto's Troubled Road
• How Toyota Turns Workers Into Problem Solvers

Keywords:	General Strategy, Innovation History, Automotive, Transportation, North America

三頭六臂集 646-48

三頭六臂集


648
　　廣播內容包括「人人都應受到敬重，但不應被偶像崇拜。」（語出愛因斯坦Albert Einstein）、「行動勝理論」（語出恩格斯Friedrich Engels）與「善用今日」（語出歌德Johann von Goethe）。（中央社倫敦25日法新電）官員今天表示，英國倫敦地鐵的駕駛廣播

647
走在辛亥路 騎樓上 突然有四棟房子的騎樓堵住 想報警/市府乎

Spotlight:

Flying Saucers
View Poster

The term "flying saucer" was coined on this date in 1947 when an American pilot reported seeing strange objects near Mt. Rainier, WA, describing them as "saucers skipping across the water." In early July of that year, some suspicious items were collected in the vicinity of Roswell, NM. The US military identified it as debris from a weather balloon that had crashed, but some thirty years later, a witness to the event told a ufologist that he believed an alien spacecraft had been found and that the US military had covered the incident up. On this date in 1997, the U.S. Air Force released its report on the Roswell Incident, stating that the UFOs that were reportedly seen in the area were, in fact, the pieces of the damaged weather balloon and the so-called aliens were actually life-sized dummies.

Quote:

"After one look at this planet any visitor from outer space would say 'I want to see the manager.'" — William S. Burroughs

646
小孩之教養是整村的事

It takes a village to raise a child. And the first and foremost problem is that the supportive community of our grandparents day, the village, the neighborhood, that place where people looked ...

三頭六臂集 634-44

三頭六臂集

644

敢跟老師抗爭的學生可能有能力

YY到某教育大學開課(兼任)
他門課程發表讓全校老師驚艷
有些老師說她們最擔心這一年級
有許多學生不容易"馴服"
YY說 敢跟老師抗爭的學生可能有能力

643

你看前兩周台北市府要吸引日本觀光客之"套餐"
大概可知道前二三月的陸客排擠掉日本客人
又陸客數目可能降為高峰時的1/10

642
Chinese Stats Official Says Economic Growth Last Year Was Slower Than Many Thought
As confidence in the prospects for China's economy this year has become more widespread, a new picture of its recent performance has also emerged one that could finally make it easier to compare China's economy to those of other big countries.

In an unusual essay (in Chinese here), Guo Tongxin, an official at the National Bureau of Statistics, gives estimates for recent changes in China's gross domestic product that follow the international convention of quarter-on-quarter comparisons. That's a technical-but-important departure from China's usual practice of describing year-on-year growth and the figures paint a very different view of China's economy over the last year or so than the headline numbers China has previously announced. (The article, published Tuesday, carries a disclaimer saying it represents Guo's personal views, not those of the bureau.)

China's traditional method compares GDP and most other indicators to the same period in the previous year. The U.S. and most other developed economies report GDP's changes relative to the previous quarter, which gives a clearer picture of the most recent trend. But with the onset of the financial crisis, China's statistics bureau has been working to improve the transparency and quality of its data. Among other changes, it has promised to start regularly publishing quarterly GDP growth rates in 2010. Many private-sector economists already try to make such estimates, but complain they lack sufficient information to do so accurately.

The new estimates from Guo, which only cover 2008 and early 2009, may be a surprise for skeptics who suspect that China's statistics officials are only capable of reporting nice-sounding numbers. These figures actually show the slowdown in the fourth quarter of last year was even sharper than most outside economists had believed.

Economists surveyed by the Journal in February had, on average, estimated that fourth-quarter GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 2.1%. Guo cited what he called a preliminary estimate that fourth quarter GDP grew 0.1% from the previous quarter, equivalent to an annualized rate of just 0.4%.

The headline year-on-year growth rate announced at the time, by comparison, was 6.8% ─ a gap that clearly shows how quarterly and annual growth rates can give very different pictures of economic turning points.

In a recent article, noted China economist Albert Keidel said the preference for year-on-year comparisons 'illustrates the choice made by China's statistical authorities to use measures that are relatively stable and change only gradually.' The year-on-year comparisons are not necessarily less accurate the U.S. and other nations also report them but their use does mean Chinese authorities 'give up measures that present a more timely picture of what happened to the economy in the immediately preceding quarter or month,' Keidel wrote. That preference has come to seem much less desirable given the rapid changes in the economy over the past year, and has led to pressure on the statistics bureau to improve.

For the first quarter of 2009, when outside economists generally agreed with the bureau's assessment that growth had picked up significantly, the difference isn't so great. Guo's preliminary estimate of a 1.5% quarterly expansion, equivalent to 6.1% annualized rate, is within the 5% to 7% range that most private economists came up with at the time. Guo also said growth for the second quarter is likely to accelerate further to above 2.0%, equivalent to an annualized increase of more than 8%.

Still, it's notable that the bureau only disclosed the low estimate for fourth-quarter growth several months after the fact, when the government is more confident the economy is recovering. It's not alone ─ the World Bank and several investment-bank economists have recently raised their forecast for China's growth this year, citing the bigger-than-expected effect of the government's stimulus programs. But it's hard to escape the feeling that the statistics bureau is still sensitive to the political implications the numbers it publishes.

Andrew Batson

隨

著外界對中國經濟今年增長前景表示了越來越廣泛的信心﹐對中國經濟近期的表現也出現了一種新的統計方法──終於可以相對容易地將中國經濟和其他主要國家進行對比了。

在 上週四發表的一份不同尋常的文章中﹐中國國家統計局官員郭同欣按照國際通用的季度環比統計方法﹐對中國國內生產總值(GDP)的近期變化作出了自己的預 計。這個變化雖然是技術層面﹐然而具有重大意義﹐它告別了中國通常使用的同比增速統計方式﹔較之中國此前宣佈的同比增速﹐新的統計方式給我們帶來了對中國 經濟過去一年左右時間表現的一個完全不同的看法。（這篇文章附帶一個聲明﹐稱文章不代表國家統計局觀點﹐作者文責自負。）

中國在公佈 GDP數據和大多數其他指標時通常只公佈同比變化。而美國和大多數其他發達經濟體則會公佈相對於前一個季度的GDP環比變化﹐這樣可以更為明確地顯示最近 的趨勢。但隨著此次金融危機的爆發﹐中國國際統計局一直在努力提高數據的透明度和質量。除了其他變化﹐中國國家統計局還承諾從2010年開始定期公佈每季 度GDP增速。雖然很多私人部門經濟學家已經在試圖作出此類預計﹐但他們抱怨自己缺乏充足的信息作出準確預計。

郭同欣作出的新預計數據只包括了2008年和2009年初﹐對那些懷疑中國統計部門普遍向上修改增長速度的人來說﹐這篇文章可能令人意外。文中的數據實際上顯示出﹐中國去年第四季度經濟增速的放緩程度甚至比大多數外部經濟學家認為的更加嚴重。

今年2月份接受《華爾街日報》調查的經濟學家平均預計﹐中國去年第四季度GDP年化增長率為2.1%。郭同欣引述他所稱的初步預計說﹐去年第四季度GDP較上一季度增長0.1%﹐年化增長率僅為0.4%。

相比之下﹐當時公佈的同比增幅為6.8%﹐這個差距清楚地表明季度環比和年度同比增幅顯示出截然不同的有關經濟轉折點的情況。

研 究中國的經濟學家凱德爾(Albert Keidel)在不久前的一篇文章中強調﹐對同比數據的偏愛顯示出中國統計部門選擇使用相對穩定、只會逐步出現變化的標準。凱德爾說﹐同比數據並不一定不 準確﹐美國和其他國家也會公佈同比數據﹐但使用同比數據確實意味著中國有關當局放棄了能夠更及時反映出上一季度或上月經濟動態的衡量標準。過去一年中由於 經濟形勢迅速變化﹐這種對同比數據的偏好似乎無法讓人滿意﹐並給統計局帶來必須做出改進的壓力。

2009年一季度﹐外界經濟學家大體上同 意統計局的看法﹐認為經濟增長顯著加快﹐因此雙方之間的分歧不是太大。郭同欣初步預計一季度環比增長1.5%﹐年化增長率為6.1%﹐大多數民間經濟學家 得出的結論是增幅在5%-7%之間。郭同欣還說﹐今年第二季度經濟增幅可能進一步加大到2%以上﹐年化增長率為8%以上。

不過﹐值得注意 的是統計局是在政府更為自信地認為經濟正在復蘇之時才公佈去年第四季度低迷的增幅預計﹐而這已經是幾個月之後的事情。無獨有偶﹐世界銀行和幾家投資銀行的 經濟學家最近也上調了中國今年綠增長的預期﹐原因是中國政府的經濟刺激計劃的效應大於預期。但人們還是有種揮之不去的感覺﹐認為統計局仍然對其所公佈的數 據的政治意味十分敏感。

Andrew Batson



641

台灣健康檢查費用竟比大陸更便宜！PET正子掃描三合一套餐，在台灣收費6000元人民幣，大陸僅單項PET就要價9000元，不過，陸客認為，台灣的優勢在優質醫療，「價格戰是打不過大陸的」。

山東省紅十字會介入醫院院長王華泰指出，來台參觀健檢中心有很大的啟發，台灣醫療的個人化服務，非常親切，這是大陸所比不上的。

640

2009年 06月 23日 11:13

Big Three Car Makers Boost Their Quality Scores

Detroit's car makers increased their new-vehicle quality scores by an average of 10% in an influential industry survey despite being rocked by bankruptcies and the recession.

Ford Motor Co., General Motors Corp. and Chrysler Group LLC reduced the number of troubles reported by consumers during their first 90 days of ownership, according to the annual J.D. Power & Associates Initial Quality study. Toyota Motor Corp. led all the makers, with its Lexus brand finishing in the top spot, while BMW AG's Mini was last.

The results come at a time when quality and brand image are under intense pressure as auto makers are forced to make deep worker cuts and idle factories, which can lead to production problems.

The quality gap between the foreign brands and U.S. auto companies is now the smallest it has ever been, said David Sargent, J.D. Power's vice president of automotive research. The domestic brands lagged behind the foreign auto makers by just six points.

'Domestic and import initial quality is equal for cars, and the domestics have a slight edge for trucks,' Mr. Sargent said in a speech Monday in Detroit. 'Imports have a significant edge for crossovers.'

The biggest surprise was Chrysler. The company's iconic Jeep brand, which finished last in quality in 2008, climbed four spots in the rankings. Jeep had 137 problems per 100 vehicles -- 29 fewer than last year. The industry average was 108 problems per 100 vehicles.

Chrysler, which filed for bankruptcy April 30 and merged its assets with Fiat SpA, undertook a massive overhaul of its brands in 2008. Many of the vehicles were outfitted with new technologies and redesigned to focus on consumer comfort.

Problems tracked by J.D. Power can range from wind noise to transmission failure. The vehicles were evaluated between November through February.

Toyota's Lexus beat Porsche Automobil Holding SE with 84 problems compared to Porsche's 90. Porsche had the top spot for the past two years. GM's Cadillac finished in third with 91 problems followed by Hyundai Motor Co. at 95 and Honda Motor Co. Ltd. at 99.

Ford's Mercury and Ford nameplates scored above average, but the Lincoln brand finished in 27th place with 129 problems. Lincoln finished 15th last year. Volvo, which Ford is trying to sell, was 24th.

Ford, which has sidestepped the need for federal aid, is relying on product introductions to drive purchases. The company is still losing billions of dollars a year. GM and Chrysler both took federal aid late last year to continue operating during the economic downturn.

GM's vehicles were all over the board. Chevrolet finished in ninth place with 103 problems, but its GMC and Buick came in 18th and 19th, respectively. Buick, with its 117 problems, tied with the industry average last year.

Saturn, Saab and Hummer all finished well below the industry average. Saab was the lowest ranking nameplate with 138 problems. GM is in the process of selling off Saturn, Hummer and Saab as part of its bankruptcy reorganization. It also plans to close its Pontiac brand, which finished in 22nd place with 118 problems. BMW's Mini finished last with 165 problems.

Jeff Bennett

2009年 06月 23日 11:13

“底特律三巨頭”汽車質量上升

儘

管破產和衰退動搖了“底特律三巨頭”﹐在一項很有影響力的行業調查中﹐三巨頭的新車質量得分卻平均上升了10%。

據J.D. Power & Associates年度新車質量調查顯示﹐在新購車輛的最初90天中﹐消費者報告的福特汽車(Ford Motor Co.)、通用汽車(General Motors Corp.)和克萊斯勒(Chrysler Group LLC)汽車問題減少。豐田汽車(Toyota Motor Corp.)領先於所有汽車生產商﹐該公司旗下的雷克薩斯(Lexus)品牌奪得榜首﹐而寶馬汽車公司(BMW AG)的Mini品牌則是最後一名。

目前﹐由於汽車生產商被迫大幅裁員、關閉工廠﹐可能會造成生產問題﹐汽車質量和品牌形像因此處於巨大的壓力之下。

J.D. Power負責汽車研究的副總裁薩金特(David Sargent)說﹐目前外國品牌和美國汽車企業之間的質量差距是有史以來最小的。本土品牌只落後於外國汽車廠商6分。

薩金特週一在底特律發表演講時說﹐國產汽車和進口汽車的初始質量不相上下﹐本土品牌在卡車質量上還要略高﹐而進口汽車在混型車上有明顯優勢。

最出人意料的是克萊斯勒。該公司的標志“吉普”(Jeep)品牌2008年的質量得分最低﹐今年則上升了4個名次。每100輛吉普車有137個問題﹐比去年少29個。行業平均水平為每100輛車中有108個問題。

克萊斯勒於4月30日申請破產保護﹐並把資產與菲亞特(Fiat SpA)合併。2008年﹐該公司進行了大規模的品牌改革。很多汽車都裝配了新技術﹐並進行了重新設計﹐更偏重於消費者舒適性。

J.D. Power跟蹤到的問題包括風噪聲、傳動系統故障等各類問題。評估時間為去年11月至今年2月。

豐 田汽車的雷克薩斯有84個問題﹐擊敗有90個問題的保時捷(Porsche Automobil Holding SE)奪冠。過去兩年來保時捷一直把持著冠軍寶座。通用汽車旗下的凱迪拉克(Cadillac)有91個問題﹐位居第三﹔現代汽車(Hyundai Motor Co.)有95個問題﹐排第四﹔本田汽車(Honda Motor Co.)有99個問題﹐排第五。

福特的水星(Mercury)和福特(Ford)品牌得分高於平均水平﹐不過林肯(Lincoln)品牌有129個問題﹐位居第27。林肯去年排名第15位。福特正試圖出售的沃爾沃(Volvo)品牌排第24位。

福特汽車沒有申請聯邦救助﹐目前正依靠產品推介推動購買。該公司每年仍虧損數十億美元。通用汽車和克萊斯勒去年底雙雙接受了聯邦救助﹐以便在經濟低迷中繼續運營。

通用汽車旗下品牌大放異彩--翻譯錯誤 all over the board 指"表現差異甚大" 。雪佛蘭(Chevrolet)有103個問題﹐位居第9﹐不過GMC和別克(Buick)分列第18和19位。別克去年有117個問題﹐與行業平均水平持平。

土 星(Saturn)、薩博(Saab)和悍馬(Hummer)均遠遠低於行業平均水平。薩博是排在最末位的品牌﹐有138個問題。作為破產重組的一部分﹐ 通用汽車正在出售土星、悍馬和薩博。該公司還計劃結束龐蒂亞克(Pontiac)品牌﹐該品牌有118個問題﹐排第22位。寶馬旗下的Mini有165個 問題﹐排在最末一名。

Jeff Bennett



639

卡洛

我近半年有許多團體都需要資源
這些原則我今晚與太座談談 再說
我昨天向她說將"31歲"的LINK 告訴些高中同學
他們從美國抗議應該"顏色中立"
這些事還有一項重要考量
我自己將資源集中在我自己的CAUSES


638
On a hot August day in 1892, someone took an axe and brutally murdered Andrew and Abby Borden of Fall River, Massachusetts. Circumstantial evidence pointed a finger of guilt at Andrew's 32-year-old daughter Lizzie; some ten months later, she was brought to trial for the crime. The national press had a field day with the story of the spinster schoolteacher and the particularly heinous way her father and stepmother met their demise. The defense rested largely on the issue of reasonable doubt. No one could explain how Lizzie could have accomplished the murders without splattering herself with blood, or how she could clean herself up so quickly. On this date in 1893, the jury found Lizzie Borden innocent of the axe murders of her father and stepmother.

Quote:

"Lizzie Borden took an axe/And gave her mother forty whacks./When she saw what she had done/She gave her father forty-one." — nursery rhyme

警方昨午3時餘獲報，北市林森北路一處大樓2樓出租套房發生兇殺案，從北縣土城住處前往探望獨居女的田姓老翁（74歲），被發現全身多處刀傷、趴臥玄關血泊中，氣絕身亡，現場留有疑似行兇的3把沾有血跡水果刀，其中2把疑因用力過猛斷裂。曾因毆打老父被控家暴的46歲田姓女子，前天傍晚在北市租屋處因向老父要錢買毒品發生爭吵，憤而持刀砍殺老父24刀後逃逸；於中國經商的田女之弟聯絡老父未著，昨午請友人前往察看，驚見田翁倒臥血泊中氣絕多時，中山警分局昨晚逮捕企圖自殺的田女，全案正漏夜偵辦中。

〔記者陳恩惠、王瑞德、黃立翔／台北報導〕北市驚傳逆倫弒親慘劇！

經驗屍，死者前胸被砍6刀、後背16刀、手部2刀，共24刀，其中喉部和胸部2刀是致命傷；田姓老翁住在台北縣土城市員林街某社區，記者昨天前往採訪，鄰居說該住戶很低調，平常很少見到他，不過出入對鄰居都很客氣。

警方發現大門無遭外力破壞痕跡，研判死亡時間約在前晚6至8時，鄰居證實，前天傍晚5時餘田女住處曾傳出激烈爭吵聲，田女也在案發後失聯；鄰居說，曾因躁鬱症到馬偕醫院就診的田女有時會突然打人。

兒託友人察看發現

在中國經商的兒子自前晚起，連續撥打老父手機卻無接聽，找了一整夜未果，連姊姊也失聯，察覺有異，昨晨電請住在北部的友人到姊姊租屋處察看。

友 人按鈴未獲回應，聯絡房東以備份鑰匙開門，看到田翁赤腳趴臥玄關鞋櫃前，全身有多處刀傷倒臥血泊中。警方調查，田女有多條毒品前科，是列管的毒品人口，死 者平常寵愛女兒，當天因女兒向老父要五千元購買毒品，但老父只給三百元，雙方因此在女兒住處爆發口角衝突，老父因此遇害。

637

晶片加工設備製造商」的評選主要考量以下13項內容：設備正常作業時間、裝配品質、可用吞吐量、成品品質、產品性能、製程支援、現場工程支援、售後支援、技術領先性、承諾、備品支援、軟體和所有權成本等。

636

台灣警察幫主管竄改交通華罰單
日本郵局長官舞弊
Mailboxes installed on street corners in Tokyo and Yokohama during the early Meiji Era (1868-1912) were painted black. Back then, the word yubin (post or mail) had only recently been coined.

There's a story that a man who misread the kanji characters for yubin as tareben (relieving oneself) urinated on a mailbox because the characters are similar. Although I don't know if the story is accurate, it dates from 138 years ago when the modern postal service system took off.

Maejima Hisoka (1835-1919), who founded the system, is said to have been a selfless man. Shortly before he was due to leave government service after having seen his brainchild get off the ground, his acquaintances tried to stop him, saying, "If you stay a little longer, you will be entitled to receive a pension." But Maejima took his leave with a smile. His philosophical attitude is apparent from "Yubin Sogyo-dan" (Episodes about the establishment of the postal system), a posthumous collection of Maejima's writings.

The man known for his rectitude would turn over in his grave if he knew about the abuse of the postage discount system for groups supporting people with disabilities.

The scandal led to the arrest of a bureau chief at the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare over the weekend. The high-ranking official is suspected of having issued a falsified "seal of approval" to an organization claiming to be a disability support group, even though it was not involved in such activities.

The phrase yoto-kuniku literally means offering the head of a sheep on a signboard to sell dog meat. It refers to false advertising. The irregularity is tantamount to giving a sheep's head to a shady organization to hide what it is actually doing.

The bureau chief is said to be denying the allegations. If she is telling the truth, whose will and acts led to the wrongdoing?

We are hearing the phrase seiji anken (political matter) once again. It is bureaucratic jargon for favors supported by politicians. It would be most worrisome if the certificate was forged with no criminal intent on the part of anyone involved in the case. If so, it means the irregularity is a product of government bureaucrats who maintain cozy relationships with politicians.

Referring to the bureau chief, Minister of Health, Labor and Welfare Yoichi Masuzoe said, "She was a rising star for working women."

Regrettably, Masuzoe used the past tense. If the situation continues, the bureau chief, unlike Maejima, will end up failing in mid-career on a sour note.

--The Asahi Shimbun, June 16(IHT/Asahi: June 17,2009)

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我

的一個好朋友最近接受了白血病測試。她對我說﹐最令人痛苦的折磨就是苦苦等待測試結果的那一週時間。我朋友說﹐她可能會學著直面壞結果。但真正讓人煎熬焦慮的是那種茫然的感覺。

Getty Images

孟克(Edvard Munch)的名畫《吶喊》

哈 佛大學心理學家吉爾伯特(Daniel Gilbert)不久前在《紐約時報》(New York Times)的專欄中寫道﹐不知道要發生什麼壞事比知道什麼壞事要發生的感覺更糟。我們大多數人之所以會夜不能寐、抽煙發泄﹐並不是因為道瓊斯指數要再跌 1000點﹐而是因為我們不知道道指會不會下跌──不確定的感覺比不確定的事情本身更折磨人。

吉爾伯特舉了一項研究作為例子。在這項研究中﹐研究對象接受了基因測試以判斷他們患上亨丁頓舞蹈症（一種神經退化性紊亂疾病）的風險。在接受測試一年後﹐那些知道自己有可能患病的人反而要比那些不知道自己到底情況怎樣的人更快樂。

為 什麼不確定性如此令人懼怕？為什麼我們情願知道壞事肯定會發生﹐也不願去猜測壞事會不會發生？當我們知道壞事肯定會發生的時候﹐我們可能會難過一陣子。但 接下來﹐大多數人都會努力改變他們的行為或態度﹐盡可能的調整自己。吉爾伯特寫道﹐但如果我們不知道要出現什麼狀況﹐那才真的令人煎熬。

但 就像死亡和納稅一樣﹐不確定性也是生命中不可避免的部分。你或孩子們可能會患上怪病﹐工作的最後期限也難以預見﹐會遇到交通障礙。很多想要孩子的夫婦﹐尤 其是那些為生育問題苦惱的夫婦﹐在等待確定是否懷孕的時候﹐也每個月都會面臨不確定性。這一切都意味著﹐我們需要找到如何應對不確定性的辦法──辦法之一 就是接受現實。不管我們怎麼努力﹐總會有我們無法控制的事情﹐因此就該想開點﹐隨遇而安。

讀者們﹐你們是否有提心吊膽﹐惴惴不安的經歷呢？你們又學會了怎麼應對不確定性呢？

Rachel Emma Silverman

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周三配新眼鏡 (周一發現必須重回原先度數)
周五鏡片脫落 (這是一家老牌眼鏡行)

An interview with Peter Senge: Sustainability: Not What You Think It Is

The MIT Sustainability Interview

Sustainability: Not What You Think It Is

An interview with Peter Senge

June 4, 2009

MIT Sloan's Peter Senge, founder of the Society for Organizational Learning, shows how companies, right away, can stop adopting sustainability measures that do “less bad” and start doing “more good,” both for the business and the world around it.

Senior Lecturer in Behavioral and Policy Sciences at MIT Sloan School of Management, Peter Senge has lectured extensively throughout the world, translating the abstract ideas of systems theory into tools for better understanding of economic and organizational change. He is the founding chair of the Society for Organizational Learning (SoL), a global community of corporations, researchers, and consultants dedicated to the “interdependent development of people and their institutions.”

Senge is the author of the widely acclaimed The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of The Learning Organization (1990). His latest book is The Necessary Revolution: How Individuals and Organizations are Working Together to Create a Sustainable World (Doubleday Currency, 2008), which details the way companies around the world are leading the change from “business as usual” tactics to transformative strategies essential for creating a flourishing, sustainable world.

Senge was interviewed by Michael S. Hopkins, Editor-in-Chief of MIT Sloan Management Review.

Your most recent book, The Necessary Revolution: How Individuals and Organizations are Working Together to Create a Sustainable World, details the way companies are embracing the challenges and opportunities around sustainability. What clicked for them?

A lot of industries are really quite close to their resource base—food and beverages, for instance. Coca-Cola and Nestle, two corporations that rarely collaborate much on anything, jointly created the CEO Water Mandate, because they’ve come to realize that water is the most acute issue in the world today and a lot of countries where they hope to grow have areas of acute water shortage. They’ve had a wakeup that if there isn’t a more integrative management of watershed in the world, their license to operate and grow as a business is ultimately going to be at great risk. That’s a strategic issue, obviously.

What’s becoming clearer to companies is what happens to stuff after you make it. In Europe today, you make a car, you have to take it back at the end of its lifetime. That’s the law. Same is true for a lot of consumer electronics. That’s a fundamental shift in a business model. A few companies in Europe led the charge to design those regulations and they became world leaders of design for remanufacture and design for recycling. If you design the car right, you can have a lot of value in it even when it’s no longer efficient to operate.

You found companies that went from thinking about how to be “less bad” to actually being “more good.” How does that shift happen?

If you look at the progression of companies, they almost always start off with some combination of waste reduction—in other words, there are a lot of aspects about our ways of doing things that we’re wasting money on. Energy is the obvious one at the top of everybody’s mind. It used to be it was a trivial cost. Now it’s not so trivial.

SENGE’S SUSTAINABILITY TAKEAWAYS

Definition

How do you define sustainability?

• “Sustainability” is a poor word, too often seen as “environmental”; it’s also a “negative vision”
• Better definition: “What does it mean to live together well?”

Drivers

Which sustainability issues will have the biggest implications for managers?

• Energy, food, and water; waste and toxicity; gap between rich and poor
• Climate change moving from a marginal issue to one that people understand will affect their business

Threats and Opportunities

What threats and opportunities will sustainability-related concerns present?

• Threat: Getting stuck in short-term actions instead of long-term solutions that require deeper investment
• Opportunities: Waste reduction and energy efficiencies and resulting cost savings; recruitment and retention skyrocket as people become passionate about new direction; potential to live in a state of beauty

Impediments

What obstacles keep organizations from acting on sustainability problems/opportunities?

• Non-systems mental model—people don’t know where sources come from or where products go to
• People fiercely protective of standard of living as individuals and business leaders
• Not enough inspirational visions toward better way of living
• Need to collaborate across functions internally and across value chains and sectors externally

Etc.

Last two years changed everything—10 years ago, only a handful of executives were even aware of these issues … look for sea change in focus around post-Kyoto discussions in next 6-9 months … Portland, Oregon, is model city that has reduced carbon footprint with strong standard of living … new book The Necessary Revolution: How Individuals and Organizations are Working Together to Create a Sustainable World offers specific company examples

So companies start with waste reduction, energy and material reduction, and the risk management associated with reducing waste streams. A great example is Alcoa, the major aluminum producer. Aluminum production is very, very water intensive. Thirteen or 14 years ago, they had a license to build an aluminum smelter plant in California, but it was rejected because people were really worried about both the water consumption and the waste water. They went to a serious strategy session and said, if we look at the big issues in the world for the next 20 years, water is getting bigger, and we better significantly reduce our water footprint. And they have, reducing it 50 percent per unit of aluminum produced since then.

Companies will start with some combination of waste reduction and then just get engaged. They’ll start participating in the World Business Council of Sustainable Development, and the US Business Council of Sustainable Development forums that help them start to understand more. What are other businesses doing? How are people thinking about these issues? They get in touch with non-business folks, like Business for Social Responsibility, an NGO start-up looking at it from an investment standpoint—how to develop a different approach to investment that deals with sustainability issues.

From there, they move into longer-term stuff, which is really where the action is. That’s creating new products, thinking about this in terms of your product portfolio, your product pipeline, and even your technology underpinnings. DuPont has shifted something like 25 percent to bio-based feedstock, moving out of petrochemical feedstocks, because they just don’t want to be downstream of the oil business forever. It’s a very long-term investment, but they’re doing it systematically and their goal is to be about 50 percent in about 10 years. Or GE, with its Ecoimagination products, trying to develop a whole product line around more energy efficient motors.

These are examples of companies really embracing the idea of sustainability.

Sustainability is a word that I’m not very fond of, but most of us in the field have accepted it as the lingua franca right now.

For me, sustainability means paying attention to very fundamental needs—food, water, energy, and the waste and toxicity they produce, and the fact that the world really is becoming more and more of a village and villages don’t live with 5 percent of the people with 70 percent of the wealth or 15 percent with 80 percent of the wealth, whatever numbers you want to look at. It’s recognizing that we have a system of organizing commerce that has systematically, consistently, ignored these side effects of operation.

On another level, it’s just a bad word. It’s technically what we would call a “negative vision.” We don’t want the unsustainable, we don’t want civilization to collapse, we don’t want the human species to fail. Well, of course we don’t want that, but those images don’t move people. “Survival” is not the most inspiring vision. It motivates out of fear, but it only motivates for as long as people feel the issues are pressing on them. Soon as the fear recedes, so does the motivation.

What we’re talking about is arguably the greatest challenge to innovation that humankind has ever faced: reinventing our whole way of living. And every single example I know of where something meaningful has happened, where people have worked at something that’s taken five years, 10 years, 15 years, it’s because of people’s excitement toward something that really draws them. It’s aspirational.

Do you have better labels or better terms to talk about this?

At some fundamental level it’s really about living together well. We have this unique challenge that human beings have never faced before: We have to actually live together on this planet. What does it mean to live together well? What would it mean to really tap the wisdom traditions of all the world’s different cultures?

Here is one substitute for “sustainability”: “All about the future.” You just ask, what’s the world of your children or grandchildren going to be like? What would you like to see it be like? Do you have a sense of giving them a world that’s in better shape than your parents and grandparents gave you?

I’ll never forget a dialogue that included the president of the American Superintendents Association, several other veterans of public education, and some kids. A 12-year-old girl turned to the president of the Association of American Superintendents and said, “You know, we kind of figure like you drank your water and then you drank ours.” You have to think about it that way. It has to get personal. Until it’s personal, it’s not real.

So let me ask you to try to generalize for just a moment. You say, essentially, that business practitioners are going to respond based on the way one of those main issues—energy, food and water, waste and toxicity, gap between rich and poor—matters to them. Would you say that any one of these is particularly under-attended to by business?

They’re pretty much all under-attended to. If you step back and ask, “What is the common picture here?”, what’s common is that businesses don’t know how to see the systems they operate in. Obviously, I have a bias in this, coming out of a systems dynamics group at MIT, but to me a good way to talk about sustainability is to talk about the system.

You ask people, “Where did what you make come from? Where did that component come from?” You trace it all the way back to the source in terms of something that’s being harvested or extracted from nature.

Then you ask them, “Where does it go?” They’ll say, Well, we sell it, that’s it, it’s our customers. And you push them: No, what happens after that? You start to look at the whole life cycle of whatever you make. And all of a sudden, you start to get a different picture. You realize you’re sitting in this big value chain and that in fact almost never is anybody looking at the whole of the value chain, from the standpoint of the economic, social, and environmental benefit—and cost—this value chain is generating.

We don’t see the system because we’re habituated not to see the system. We’re organized not to see the system and we’re intellectually organized not to see the system. So it starts there.

That’s not something that comes to business naturally.

I guarantee you it took Coke years to figure out that as a company, its business is really about water. It doesn’t have a business if there isn’t more effective, long-term, integrative management of watersheds in the world. And Coke is still on that journey, early in that journey. Why didn’t they see it earlier? It’s not that they’re stupid, it’s not because no one understands that water is ultimately a limited resource and there are a lot of problems with the management of water virtually everyplace around the world. It’s because it’s not in their mental model of their business.

So you’ve got to challenge your taken-for-granted assumptions. Once you start addressing these issues, you start working across all kinds of boundaries inside your company and outside your organization, which means collaborating across functions and collaborating across value chains and collaborating between sectors. If you’re going to look at your whole value chain—waste, toxicity, resources and the social functioning of your value chain—you’re going to be dealing with NGOs, which know a lot more about the social and environmental reality than you do.

And then finally, it all comes together and shifts from being less bad to being more good.

That’s a journey. What are the things, in your experience, that you anticipate getting in the way of leaders and businesses changing in a meaningful way?

You got a lot of people in the world who are just focused on their careers. They got their tracks set out in their minds, they’re climbing the ladders. And this looks like the world’s biggest interruption to their life plans.

If we translate that into a label for a hurdle that’s going to get in the way, it’s what? I hate to call it “selfishness.”

Fear of losing the status quo. We like our flat panel TVs. We like the idea that we live the way we live and we don’t want to lose it. That’s probably the single biggest political force in this country and in all the developed countries, tapping into the fear that people have of losing their present standard of living. It’s that line by George W. Bush, “The American way of life is not negotiable.”

Like a lot of fears, it’s not crazy. But it blocks all thinking. It just freezes people. And you can say, “we need to be more reflective, we need to collaborate,” and people won’t do a darn thing, because the emotional dimension of this is so strong.

We’re just—we’re a culture of waste. The simplest example I could give you is the amount of food in America. People travel here from around the world, they go to a restaurant, and they say, why is there so much food? Because we have a culture where excess is a sign of being well-off. If you think of immigrants who don’t have enough, the good life is having more than you need. It’s deep in the American psyche.

Fortunately, there are extraordinary possibilities in all this. Portland, Oregon, for instance, has reduced its carbon footprint—it’s the only city of any size that has, as far as I know. And you don’t get the feeling that this has been a big step back in their standard of living. They have their bike paths, they have their light rail, they have probably more green buildings than any city in America. People love living there.

We need that kind of clear vision of a better way of living. But I think that’s a pretty significant challenge.

If you’re talking to a business executive right now and he or she wants to respond, what do you tell them to do?

I tell them to start short-term. In a relatively short period, with a combination of internal process improvements, there’s a lot that can happen to get their acts together. Figure out where your energy goes. Very few manufacturing organizations are technically sophisticated in their use of energy, but plenty of good consultants can get you there pretty quickly.

What’s exciting is that we don’t have to leave this to the people at the top. Our book emphasizes a lot of stories where leadership started much more at operational levels, in the middle or lower ranks of organizations. Nike, for instance, has a whole new product development rating system that was started with two women, one a staff person, the other the head of a research group that did a complete toxicological analysis of the product line in 1997 or 1998. They had enough support from the top to keep going, but their work was the first step.

You’ve been working this field for a long time. How you think attitudes toward sustainability have changed within organizations?

In the last year or two, everything has changed. People are starting to suspect that these are really strategic issues that they will shape the future of our businesses. The specifics are all different depending on industry and context, but we’re in the beginning of an historic wakeup.

Undoubtedly, climate change has been the straw breaking the camel’s back. A lot of people think of climate change as a technical problem, something that’s going to be fixed by technical solutions. But more and more people are starting to realize that it’s not going to be fixed except as a byproduct of a real shift in how the whole industrial system operates.

I’m guessing that in the next six months people will have an even better handle on that. We’re right in a moment when the issue is moving from something marginal, something that we think somebody else needs to worry about, to something more personal.

1. ‘Sustainability’ Risks Losing Effectiveness as a Term · Environmental Leader · Green Business, Sustainable Business, and Green Strategy News for Corporate Sustainability Executives Says:
   June 11th, 2009 at 10:19 am

   [...] It’s technically what we would call a ‘negative vision,’” said Senge, in an interview at MIT Sloan Management [...]

2. Cool Green Morning: Friday, June 12 | Cool Green Science: The Conservation Blog of The Nature Conservancy Says:
   June 12th, 2009 at 8:52 am

   [...] Is “sustainability” a bad word? Peter Senge of MIT’s Sloane School of Management says the term is akin to “survival” — that it motivates by fear…and that that’s not a sustainable emotion. (Hat tip: Environmental Leader.) [...]

3. Peter Senge on Sustainability « TRAJB Says:
   June 16th, 2009 at 2:56 pm

   [...] leave a comment » A great interview with Peter Senge [The Fifth Discipline, etc] on sustainability. Read it here. [...]

4. dstangis Says:
   June 16th, 2009 at 7:20 pm

   It is always good to hear a perspective from Peter. I believe there is a thread of wisdom that leads all the way back from the concept of a learning organization to today’s leading companies that have come to grips with the positive social impacts they can drive by looking at their business model as a system that interacts with their customers, the environment, their employees and society.

   I call these concepts advanced management for the 21st century. Many others call them Sustainability.

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三頭六臂集 623-33

三頭六臂集


633

As W. Edwards Deming emphasized “encourage education and self-improvement for everyone.” What an organization needs is not just good people; it needs people that are improving with education.

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當無品的教育部要你們好看時
針對教育部宣布將撥12億經費推動「台灣有品運動」，行政院新聞局長蘇俊賓上午表示，預算多少才算適切，尊重主政單位的專業判斷，品德是社會現在所重視的一環，細節執行方尊重教育部。

631

Taj Mahal: Mumtaz Mahal, wife of Mughal emperor Shah Jahan I, died; her death inspired her husband to build a white domed mausoleum masterpiece (1631)

中學讀首懷想這美事之詩 很難忘
不過我既不起這翻譯的詩了
這樣如何算難忘

630
網絡廣告銷售混亂 電腦病毒乘虛而入

Google 的 Blogspot的寫作者上傳之後開始給作者廣告

629

Dr. Deming prefered "win, win" expression but "win-win" was the dictionaries' option.

win-win Show phonetics
adjective [before noun]
describes a situation, plan, etc. in which you cannot lose, whatever choice of action you make, or in which all the groups involved will gain benefits:
This is a win-win situation for her, because whoever wins this match, she's still going to be champion.
Promoting fairtrade is a win-win option, because everyone, both producers and consumers, benefits.

628
因果與相關: 喝少量酒真好?

For some scientists, the question will not go away. No study, these critics say, has ever proved a causal relationship between moderate drinking and lower risk of death — only that the two often go together. It may be that moderate drinking is just something healthy people tend to do, not something that makes people healthy.

“The moderate drinkers tend to do everything right — they exercise, they don’t smoke, they eat right and they drink moderately,” said Kaye Middleton Fillmore, a retired sociologist from the University of California, San Francisco, who has criticized the research. “It’s very hard to disentangle all of that, and that’s a real problem.”

627
"感謝 昆山科技大學陳長仁老師購 第四代管理 一批"之餘
想到警察自殺事件背後的馬(或各)政權之追求假事據之暴政

626

Quote:

"I am tomorrow, or some future day, what I establish today. I am today what I established yesterday or some previous day." — James Joyce

這種方式"創刊"很不錯
如果我有365個31歲
我會天天思華年


625

Apple Unveils the New iPhone: Hail, O Great One

By Josh Quittner

Apple's iPhone 3Gs offers more speed, dazzling smarts, and a brave new world for killer apps; one will even unlock your car

我的一位朋友為它開發統計軟體

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bbc"而事實上，中國非法賣淫嫖娼和半合法的二奶到處都是。當2000年政府一次打擊娼妓行動之後，經濟學家稱GDP下降了一個百分點。"
2002年我在廣州聽到的故事是: 公司發薪前兩天要知會銀行以利準備銀錢 因此被"服務人員"提領甚多

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歷史存檔
2009年6月10日～12日舉行的“Display Taiwan 2009（第11屆平板顯示器展會）”（參閱本站報導）上，台灣知名液晶面板廠商友達光電（AUO）、奇美電子（CMO）及中華映管（CPT）在“ECO”及“Green”的旗幟下展出多款面板。各企業均展出可用於大螢幕電視、顯示器、筆記型電腦（PC）及移動終端等所有用途，且近期即將上市的面板。

　　世界各地舉行了多場顯示器展會。繼上周在美國聖安東尼奧剛剛舉行的“SID 2009”之後的此次展會，充分展現了台灣作為“面板生產基地”的特色。SID的宗旨是發佈並演示尚在開發的最尖端技術，而Display Taiwan則以應用尖端技術的產品展示為主，並以實際的銷售業務為前提。

　　此次，台灣3家知名面板廠商在完善以液晶面板為中心，從大型到中小型產品線的同時，還展出很多面向新用途的產品。包括3D、觸控面板及電子紙等。

　　友達光電的65吋裸眼3D顯示器（圖1）便是其中之一。該產品是全球尺寸最大的3D顯示器，設想用於商業、家庭娛樂及教育等領域。

　　並且，在“ECO”及“Green”產品方面，友達光電將展出功耗僅為170W的52吋“Eco Plus”，奇美電子將展出“Green Monitor”及“Green Notebook”（圖2）。（特約撰稿人：北原 洋明）

■日文原文
【Display Taiwanプレビュー】SIDとの差異化を意識し，直近の量產を前提とした「ECO」「Green」製品が並ぶパネル生產基地での展示會

LSS goes green /I.B.M. to Help Clients Fight Cost and Complexity

LSS goes green

BY ALEX KAYLE , JOURNALIST

[ Johannesburg, 12 June 2009 ] - International governments are using the Kyoto Protocol to enforce stringent energy usage laws on companies and SA is no exception.

IBM has rolled out a green solution that uses Lean Six Sigma (LSS) methodologies to monitor and analyse energy consumption. This was announced during the ITWeb Lean Six Sigma conference, held in Sandton, yesterday.
Last week, the South African government released the draft Taxation Amendment Bill 2009, which proposes that businesses will see tax reduction incentives for energy saving in line with carbon emission regulations. Businesses will have to submit substantial proof of energy savings to the National Energy Efficiency Agency.

Currently, SA ranks in 12th position as the one of the top offenders of greenhouse gas emissions, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists. SA contributes 65% of Africa's total emissions.

Energy efficiency

As part of the Smarter Planet initiative spearheaded by IBM, the global IT giant spent two years developing a solution that helps companies monitor and reduce carbon emissions.

Niall Brady, Green Sigma worldwide technical development manager at IBM, said at the conference that the solution has modified LSS principles into a power management analysis solution.

“The green agenda is gaining momentum all over the world. The UK government is rolling out energy efficiency regulations, forcing companies to report on their carbon position and then to prove year-on-year reductions in carbon emissions.”

Cost is key

Brady pointed out that businesses tend to be far removed from energy awareness around IT, until they notice cost savings stemming from the methodology, especially in tough financial times.

“Things have changed, companies are trying to survive and energy saving and cost is key to that. In the context of energy usage, businesses need to identify opportunities through processes where they can make potential savings. The green Six Sigma management system allows a business to feel confident that its energy is under control and can see benefits through LSS principles.

“Companies coming from a position of complete ignorance are moving to a complete understanding using the solution, and it has strong return on IT investments. Typically the roll-out of the programme will take six months to see a return on investment.”

Related stories:
LSS not foolproof
Recession necessitates LSS
LSS calls for management commitment

I.B.M. to Help Clients Fight Cost and Complexity

By STEVE LOHR

Published: June 14, 2009

In 2000, the Linux operating system was a hot technology, but it had not spread much beyond scientists, researchers and computer programmers. Then I.B.M. declared that it would back Linux with investment, research and marketing, and the technology moved swiftly into the corporate mainstream.

Skip to next paragraph

Mark Lennihan/Associated Press

Samuel Palmisano, I.B.M.’s chief, sees a rising flood of data.

The same thing happened with the personal computer in the early 1980s, when I.B.M. endorsed that upstart technology and entered the market.

Starting this week, I.B.M. is returning to the same playbook, introducing some initial products and services and a roadmap for its stable of corporate and government customers to comfortably embrace cloud computing.

Cloud computing — in which vast stores of information and processing resources can be tapped from afar, over the Internet, using a personal computer, cellphone or other device — holds great promise in the corporate market. The cloud model, analysts say, has the potential to cut the costs, complexity and headaches of technology for companies and government agencies.

Already, Amazon.com, Google and Salesforce.com, among others, offer cloud-based Web services to companies, including e-mail, computer storage and customer management software. But many big companies and government agencies have been reluctant to get on board because of traditional corporate-computing concerns like the security of data, reliability of service and regulatory compliance.

“I.B.M. knows how to do all of those things,” said Frank Gens, chief analyst for IDC, a technology research firm. “Its strategy is all about making cloud computing safe for enterprise customers.”

Even if I.B.M. succeeds in its bid to make cloud computing more palatable for big corporations, there is no guarantee that it will be the main beneficiary of the trend. After I.B.M. helped create the PC industry, lower-cost competitors ended up dominating the business.

In the cloud market, I.B.M. plans to take a tailored approach. The hardware and software in its cloud offerings will be meant for specific computing chores. Just as Google runs a computing cloud optimized for Internet search, I.B.M. will make bespoke clouds for computing workloads in business.

Its early cloud entries, to be announced on Monday, follow that model. One set of offerings is focused on streamlining the technology used by corporate software developers and testers, which can consume 30 percent or more of a company’s technology resources.

The second set is virtual desktop services, in which personal computer software, either from Microsoft or open-source alternatives, is run on remote servers and piped to simple desktop machines equipped with screens and keyboards. I.B.M. found in tests with clients that such virtual PCs, with little desktop processing or storage, can use 70 percent less power than conventional PCs and reduce technical support costs by up to 40 percent,.

Both the software development and desktop services are being offered as an integrated bundle of hardware and software for a cloud running inside a corporate or government data center, or as a cloud service hosted in an I.B.M. data center.

Other offerings are planned, I.B.M. executives said, including clouds fine-tuned for data storage, and clouds for business analytics, which is software that analyzes data for patterns of customer behavior, market trends and other potentially valuable information.

I.B.M. calls its approach of fine-tuning hardware and software for specific jobs “hybrid computing.” And it will open a Hybrid Computing Research lab later this year, inviting industry and university scientists to work cooperatively on new application-specific designs intended to improve performance by 100 to 1,000 times compared with today’s systems.

The fresh look at computer design is being prompted by the surge in Internet data, from social networking to smartphone applications to sensors monitoring food shipments and electrical use. By 2011, IDC estimates, there will be one trillion Internet-connected devices, up from 500 million in 2006.

“This huge explosion of data is driving a movement to design systems around workloads because it is the only way to deliver the computation needed, and it’s far more energy-efficient,” said Kunle Olukotun, a computer scientist at Stanford.

I.B.M. had an initiative, begun in early 2008, called Blue Cloud, which mainly involved adapting its server computers for cloud technology. Most major technology suppliers have cloud-related hardware and software products, including Cisco, Hewlett-Packard, Sun Microsystems and Dell. But I.B.M., analysts say, is going further by offering simplified, integrated stacks of hardware and software, as well as cloud services.

I.B.M.’s cloud strategy, the company said, is the culmination of 100 prototype projects with companies and government agencies over the last year, and its research partnership with Google.

“The information technology infrastructure is under stress already, and the data flood is just accelerating,” said Samuel J. Palmisano, I.B.M.’s chief executive. “We’ve decided that how you solve that starts by organizing technology around the workload.”

One of I.B.M.’s test beds for cloud computing has been the Interior Department’s National Business Center, a service center that handles payroll, human relations, financial reporting, contracting services and other computing tasks for dozens of federal agencies. The center runs two large data centers, one in Northern Virginia and another outside Denver.

Douglas J. Bourgeois, the center’s director, said he is introducing several cloud-style applications over the next nine months including Web-based training, and staffing and recruitment software. And in tests with financial and procurement software, the cloud-computing environment has delivered efficiencies of 40 to 60 percent in productivity and power consumption, he said.

“For us, like other data centers, the volume of data continues to explode,” Mr. Bourgeois said. “We want to solve some of those problems with cloud computing, so we don’t have to build another $20 million data center.”

'Out of the Crisis' - The Deming Way : Emma and Economics

『轉危為安』 第六章『品質與消費者(Quality and the Consumer)』（1986，有增益，。1982年版為第11章。）1986版有增益，譬如說spiral up，1950年的講義為The new way.，到1986年版的圖10說：The helix. Continue the cycle, over and over, with never-ending improvement of quality, at lower and lower cost.
中文本（1997）第208頁： 螺旋圖、不斷地循環進行四個步驟，改善品質並使成本越來越低。（改譯過）

'Out of the Crisis' - The Deming Way

The W. Edwards Deming Institute

Seattle Seminar offers profound business practices to survive and prosper Dr. W. Edwards Deming ignited the worldwide 'quality' revolution SEATTLE, June 12 /PRNewswire/ -- Attention all CEOs, leaders, entrepreneurs and students -- Companies today are in crisis and are facing increased costs, declining revenues and inconsistencies between policy and strategy. Organizations need to implement proven management ideas that will profoundly affect their bottom line. Beginning on June 22, a two and a half day seminar, OUT OF THE CRISIS, will present the management philosophy of the world renowned Dr. W. Edwards Deming to enable business to meet the current crisis head-on, boost productivity and create a unique competitive advantage.

Why are Deming's ideas the answer? In 1950, in an effort to revive their ailing economy, Dr. Deming was invited to Japan. Their industry was in complete ruins and "Made in Japan" was synonymous with poor quality. Over the next three years, management executives controlling 80% of the capital in Japan attended his many seminars, and Deming ignited Japanese industry and their economy. In recognition, the Emperor of Japan awarded Deming the highly coveted Second Order Medal of the Sacred Treasure. Two decades later a highly acclaimed documentary reintroduced him to America. Deming quickly became the major force behind the "quality control" effort in corporate America and companies around the world. The quality movement was off and running.

What are the secrets of Dr. W. Edwards Deming and why are they so relevant today? "Deming understood that quality was not the answer but the outcome of better leadership, management and practice," says Deming's grandson, Kevin Edwards Cahill, Vice President of The W. Edwards Deming Institute(R). "My grandfather recognized and predicted the impending global crisis years ago." Through their seminars, The Deming Institute identifies practices creating problems in an organization and introduces attendees to effective management practices that will lead them on a path to not only survive, but thrive. Cahill adds, "We are reminding people of this proven approach. It is available, ready to implement and vital for economic recovery. The time is now."

"Out of the Crisis," The Deming Institute's Seattle Seminar, to be held on June 22-24, will feature Deming Institute trained facilitators Lynda Finn, founder and president of Statistical Insight, and Jussi Kyllonen, Quality Systems Manager at Eaton Corporation Aerospace Operations.

"Out of the Crisis," June 22-24 at The Red Lion on 5th Avenue (1415 Fifth Ave in downtown Seattle.) For more information go to www.deming.org

To attend the seminar contact: Kevin Cahill, kevin.cahill@mac.com, 310-377-6308

SOURCE The W. Edwards Deming Institute

讀 Economics and language: five essays

問瑞麟

EMMA 有一段問 答

"他長得高嗎?

...."....認為他是令人快樂的人"

請告知

先謝


RL答
http://www.pemberley.com/etext/Emma/chapter21.htm


去找

"No -- I have never seen Mr. Elton," she replied, starting on this appeal; "is he -- is he a tall man?"

"Who shall answer that question?" cried Emma. "My father would say 'yes,' Mr. Knightley, 'no;' and Miss Bates and I that he is just the happy medium. When you have been here a little longer, Miss Fairfax, you will understand that Mr. Elton is the standard of perfection in Highbury, both in person and mind."

Emma, Chapter 21

三頭六臂集 612-22

三頭六臂集
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日本產學研大聯合開發蓄電池，能量密度目標為提高3倍
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請思考為何86% 投票率是反常

The LAT explains that during the last 6 Iranian presidential elections, conservative candidates have only won in elections with low turnout-- like the 2005 election that swept Ahmadinejad to power. That year just 48 percent of Iranians voted, compared with up to 86 percent this year. Analysts say they think it's unlikely that so many more people would turn out just to support the incumbent.

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轉危為安最後一章

Obama Open to Reining in Medical Suits

By SHERYL GAY STOLBERG and ROBERT PEAR 10 minutes ago

According to lawmakers of both parties, President Obama has been making the case that reducing malpractice lawsuits should be part of any health care overhaul.

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张忠谋将再度出任台积电首席执行官
公司将考虑进军太阳能电池板等绿色能源业务

我12日在某報看到他們的照片 我很驚訝他們兩人的領帶相對長度
其中一人很可能不符合"國際穿著標準"

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REF:謝金生邀請您參加同學會

TO: 劉健雄兄

me: 感謝 QKC 彈性 看他們決定 由你講 我沒聽到也可惜

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2009年 06月 11日 10:21

中國媒體準確預測經濟數據之迷

中

國兩家報紙對週三公佈的經濟數據的預測極其準確﹐準確得有些可疑﹐分析師們說﹐現在看來這些報告中對本週晚些時候將會公佈的更多數據的預測可能也會給人們帶來驚喜。

中國大陸出版的《21世紀經濟報道》和香港的《明報》在週三官方公佈消費者價格指數(CPI)和生產者價格指數(PPI)之前就在報導中進行了準確的預測。

這兩家報紙預測的準確度高於大多數經濟學家﹐美林(Merrill Lynch)表示﹐這樣的結果並非僥倖的巧合﹐而是顯示出報導中提及的“小道消息數字”是可靠的。

美林分析師在週三的一份報告中說﹐週三公佈的數據證實了這些通過小道消息獲得的通脹數據﹐這意味著其他一些小道消息也很可能具有很高的可信度。

美林分析師說﹐香港股市週三大漲﹐反應出市場相信所謂的小道消息﹐許多這類數據都預測即將公佈的數據會顯示經濟增長比預期強勁。

香港恒生指數週三收盤漲4%﹐由在香港上市的內地公司組成的恒生中國企業指數漲5%。

這兩家報紙報道說﹐定於週四公佈的5月份固定資產投資上漲32.9%﹐而定於週五公佈的5月工業產值及零售額將分別增長8.9%和15.2%。

這兩家報紙的報道中做出的所有預測都高於預期。

Chris Oliver

616

可見教叫"阿清"說法由來已久
那就自稱"台上阿清"好了


615

国民党主席：马上吴下

台灣說法 鸟上阿蒙

吳下阿蒙
注音一式　ㄨˊ　ㄒ｜ㄚˋ　ㄚˋ　ㄇㄥˊ
漢語拼音　ｗ 　ｘｉ 　 　ｍ ｎ	注音二式　ｗ 　ｓｈｉ 　 　ｍ ｎｇ
相似詞　蘆中窮士	相反詞
阿蒙，指三國名將呂蒙。原習武略，後聽從孫權勸說，篤學不倦，幾年之後，學識英博。見三國志˙卷五十四˙吳書˙呂蒙傳˙裴松之˙注引江表傳。後以吳下阿蒙比喻人學識淺陋。晉書˙卷一二七˙慕容德載記：「垂謂之曰：『汝器識長進，非復吳下阿蒙也。』」清˙李漁˙閒情偶寄˙詞曲部˙賓白：「常有當儉不儉，因留餘幅以俟剪裁，遂不覺流為散漫者，自今觀之，皆吳下阿蒙手筆也。」

614

這玩藝的發行量一定近乎 Pareto Distribution
Appletimes 竟然被稱為"水果日報" 它刊頭都有每月印 511000份 實銷510200份 約只回收800份 了不起


〔中央社〕台灣主要(?)報紙今天的頭條新聞標題如下：

自由時報：台灣學者首度發現 颱風會引發慢地震。
蘋果日報：超離譜 網售東森購物8千筆個資。
聯 合 報：政院翻盤急追公文 許舒博掌101破局。
中國時報：司法首例 信用卡循環利息免付。
經濟日報：MOU時程生變 月底簽不了。
工商時報：鐵嘴林文伯，樂觀看景氣：訂單淹台灣 台股上萬點。
民眾日報：馬英九選黨主席 吳伯雄退位。
臺灣時報：劉揆尚未批准 許舒博接101沒喬好。
中央日報網路報：國共論壇定議程 7月長沙舉行 吳伯雄率團。
中華日報：善盡責任全面承擔 馬宣布參選國民黨主席
青年日報：中科院光電研發成果創造多元商機。
台灣新生報：男人睡得少 小心走得早。
國語日報：困境求上進 原民兒歌頌快樂。
人間福報：98歲趙慕鶴 南華碩士。
台灣立報：閩語課綱微調 拼音小三再學。
大紀元時報：馬英九宣布參選國民黨主席。



613

BING!

“必應”推動微軟搜索市場佔有率增長
2009年06月10日11:10

微

軟(Microsoft Corp.)推出新的搜索引擎“必應”(Bing)、發起相關廣告攻勢之後﹐它在互聯網搜索市場的佔有率有了初步的增長。

與此同時﹐谷歌(Google Inc.)週二推出了一款新產品﹐增大了“入侵”微軟領地的努力。這款新產品使微軟Office用戶可以從谷歌日曆和電子郵件服務中獲取數據。

據研究公司comScore Inc.的一項研究﹐自上個月底推出“必應”以來﹐微軟在衡量美國互聯網搜索市場佔有率的兩項指標中﹐均上升了約兩個百分點。微軟在搜索結果頁面的佔有率從5月26日-30日的9.1%升至6月2日-6日的11%。搜索結果頁面佔有率用於衡量網絡用戶搜索活動的強度。

據comScore的數據﹐微軟同期的互聯網搜索用戶也有所增加﹐搜索用戶滲透率從13.8%升至15.5%。

微軟正依靠“必應”幫助自身在網絡搜索廣告市場上與谷歌更有效地競爭﹐並在營銷活動上投資近1億美元﹐以說服人們使用新的搜索引擎。

“必應”意在向搜索四類信息的人提供更加豐富的搜索體驗﹐包括購物、旅遊、健康和本地企業﹐不過也會為任何搜索詞條提供結果。

微軟是否能在搜索市場佔有率上獲得更有意義的增長﹐抑或是保持已有的成績﹐這還是個未知數。在搜索業務方面﹐與谷歌和雅虎(Yahoo Inc.)在美國搜索市場60%以上和20%的佔有率相比﹐微軟仍相形見絀。

搜索引擎營銷公司Rimm-Kaufman Group首席營運長米契(George Michie)說﹐來自他的廣告客戶的數據顯示﹐微軟推出“必應”之後﹐有了一些好轉。他的客戶大多是互聯網零售商。好轉的方麵包括﹕微軟搜索用戶在點擊付費搜索鏈接之後買東西的傾向增大。

米契說﹐我認為真正的問題是這種勢頭能否保持下去﹖由於使用谷歌進行搜索已經是一種習慣了﹐人們真的會打破習慣﹐換一種默認的搜索引擎嗎﹖

微軟發言人拒絕置評﹐只是說判斷“必應”的市場佔有率結果還為時尚早。谷歌首席財務長皮切特(Patrick Pichett)週二在投資者大會上說﹐谷歌目前正在分析“必應”﹐計劃本週就此與谷歌高管層進行進一步的討論。

Nick Wingfield / Jessica E. Vascellaro

612

據中新社 6月10日報導，綜合訊息，一款旨在保護青少年免受網際網路不良資訊影響的綠色上網過濾軟體，7月1日後將預裝在中國境內生產銷售和進口的電腦內。這項據 稱花費4000多萬的官方措施引發各界廣泛關注。從9日舉行的中國外交部例行記者會，到今日出版的各大報紙，乃至網上論壇，均有涉及此事的討論。對於各界 的相關疑問，中國工業和資訊化部表示，此舉目的在於保護青少年健康成長，該軟體可由用戶自行選擇裝設與否，同時對用戶上網行為不進行任何監控，也不蒐集任 何用戶資訊。

中國工業和資訊化部近日下發《關於電腦預裝綠色上網過濾軟體的通知》。7月1日以後，在中國境內生產銷售的電腦出廠前將預裝一款名為“綠壩-花季護航”的綠色上網過濾軟體。同時，進口電腦在中國銷售前也將預裝該軟體。

據了解，這款軟體具備攔截色情內容、過濾不良網站、控制上網時間、查看上網記錄等功能，工信部等幾部委使用中央財政資金買斷其一年服務供全社會免費使用， 此前幾部委已要求全國各地中小學的聯網電腦5月底要裝設該軟體，而所有進入“家電下鄉”目錄的電腦也已預裝該軟體。

新華網引述工業和資訊化部有關負責人的表態說，由政府出資提供過濾軟體供社會免費使用是國際通行做法，其目的就是為了防止未成年人受到網際網路不良資訊的影響，保護青少年健康成長。

該負責人介紹說，截至2009年5月底，全國已有106家網站提供“綠壩-花季護航”軟體下載服務，累計下載717.25萬次；完成了全國36個省、自治 區、直轄市和計劃單列市20967所校園的裝設使用工作，總裝機數量達到261.8萬台。對1016位用戶進行的用戶滿意度抽查顯示，用戶普遍對軟體的實 際效果表示滿意，認為此項措施在不增加使用者任何成本的情況下，滿足了家長的實際需求，一致支援政府的公益行為。網上論壇共征集到1813份有效用戶反 饋，92%的用戶認為有必要通過政府採購綠色上網過濾軟體供社會免費使用以淨化網路環境，70%以上的用戶對軟體產品品質和技術支援服務表示滿意。

這位負責人說，該軟體可由用戶自行選擇裝設與否，同時對用戶上網行為不進行任何監控，也不蒐集任何用戶資訊。

6月9日，外交部新聞發言人秦剛就要求中國境內生產銷售的電腦出廠前將預裝過濾有害資訊軟體一事回答記者提問時表示，希望外界正確理解這一措施的目的，它是為了避免對社會公眾有害的資訊在網路上傳播。

秦剛說：“你知道這個軟體是什麼軟體嗎？我想你知道。這個軟體的名字叫‘綠壩-花季護航’，是屏蔽和過濾網際網路上諸如淫穢、暴力資訊的軟體。我想再問你 一個問題。你有小孩嗎？如果你有孩子，或者你今後將要有孩子，我想你能夠理解廣大家長對網際網路上有害資訊傳播的這種擔憂和關切。”

秦剛還表示，中國的網際網路是開放的，中國政府積極致力於推動網際網路的健康發展，但是中國政府也要依法管理網路，目的是要避免對社會公眾有害的資訊在網路上傳播。

根據工信部前不久發佈的訊息，7月1日以後，在中國境內生產銷售的電腦出廠前將預裝一款名為“綠壩-花季護航”(軟體下載)的綠色上網過濾軟體，而進口電腦在我國銷售前也將預裝該軟體。有外國媒體將這一旨在保護社會公眾的措施歪曲為“政府企圖控制網民”。

“綠壩-花季護航”軟體的相關報導，佔據了今日出版的各大報紙的不少版面。新京報10日刊登評論說，沒有人會真正反對政府出爐管理制度屏蔽色情和暴力內 容，但強制性的手段未必可取。判定一個網站是否色情和暴力、應該被過濾的規則由誰來制定？評論稱，公共政策應該如何出爐，企業應該如何負起自己的責任，公 民又該如何保持表達的權利和成年人的義務之間的平衡，都是需要公開討論和多方互動的，深思而緩行，方為應有的態度和做法。

新京報的報導還引述中國社科院政府政策系博士馬光遠的觀點說，“家裏是否上鎖是我的自由”，在行使統一的要求時，應該有法律依據。而中國電腦學會理事呂京建也認為，要讓社會普遍使用一種電腦軟體，應該公開聽證。

中國青年報10日的一篇評論對此質疑說，哪部法律賦予了工業和資訊化部擁有這種權力？可以提倡普及過濾軟體，但這種權力不能強制性地進入百姓私生活之中， 無論其初衷是多麼良好，都不應該隨意強制。評論說，政府部門的善意不能傷害民眾選擇的自由，否則就會異化為不民主的“家長制”善意。

不過對於種種質疑，北京青年報的評論則稱這是一場“美麗的虛驚”，評論說，幾乎所有的質疑都建立在“工信部要求強制裝設‘綠色軟體’”的前提上，但這從一開始就是緣於對工信部通知內容的誤讀和虛驚，或者說是出於對自身權利可能受到侵犯而產生的過度敏感與焦慮。

這篇評論說，不必指責網民的誤讀和虛驚，在事關自身權益的問題上，公民多一些敏感與焦慮並不是壞事，至少，這種社會情緒能夠促使公權機關對手中的權力多一 些謙抑，對公民權利多一些敬畏。也正是從這個意義上講，所謂強制裝設“綠色軟體”只是一場“美麗的虛驚”，網民對工信部的質疑就此“落空”，這個結果從反 面敘述，工信部不要求強制裝設“綠色軟體”，體現了一種難能可貴的行政理性??不以行政手段助推市場壟斷，不以公權力干涉公民自由、侵犯公民隱私，這未嘗 不是一個令人欣慰的結局。

據工信部介紹，工業和資訊化部按照《政府採購法》有關要求，針對社會公開征集綠色上網過濾軟體，歷經測試、評審等環節，最終確定 “金惠堵截黃色圖像及不良資訊專家系統”和“花季護航上網管理軟體”兩款綠色上網過濾軟體產品中標，並與兩家公司簽訂了“綠色上網過濾軟體產品一年使用權 及相關服務採購”項目合同，以國家出資買斷其使用權的方式提供社會免費使用，同時群組織中標單位對兩款過濾軟體進行整合，形成了具備網際網路文字和圖像雙 重過濾功能、有效識別率超過90%的“綠壩-花季護航” 綠色上網過濾軟體產品。

2008年10月，工業和資訊化部群組織中標單位在鄭州進行了“綠壩- 花季護航” 綠色上網過濾軟體公開測試和試點推廣。公開測試顯示，產品執行穩定可靠，能有效過濾網際網路不良文字和圖像內容，具備了向社會提供免費裝設使用的條件，國 家有關部門隨即啟動了以綠色上網過濾軟體在全國中小學校園裝設使用和社會自由下載為重點的大規模推廣應用工作。

(杜琰 編輯)