「華人戴明學院」是戴明哲學的學習共同體 ,致力於淵博型智識系統的研究、推廣和運用。 The purpose of this blog is to advance the ideas and ideals of W. Edwards Deming.

1970年11月8日 星期日

W. EdwardsDming博士著{品管九講 } 譯者劉振序言 (1970)

品管九講
譯者序言
(1970)


日本之有品質管制,雖始自公元1948年,而發揚光大,實奠基於1950年W. Edwards Deming博士訪日時所播之種籽,經二十年之灌溉培植,在國際上已佔有卓越之地位。日本工業之進步,產品品質之精良,已一變世人之觀感。此種飛躍之成就,其得益於品質管制之助,洵非過譽。

W. Edwards eDming博士為世界知名之抽樣理論權威,對品質管制尤有精湛之研究,著作等身,望重士林。自1950年在日舉辦講習班後,其對日本工業上之影響與貢獻,無與倫此,舉國景從,幾已成為日本品管界之偶像,故日本科學技術連盟特設置Deming獎,以示祟敬。

於民國46年在木柵,參加中國生產力中心與台糖公司合辦之品質管制訓練班。班中曾發給此書油印本一冊,作為參考。歸而捧讀再四,心竊喜之。屢思譯述,苦無原本,52年夏於張源漳兄處,獲讀日本科技連盟出版之英文本 (第二版),退食之餘,遂根據是書,加以迻譯。

按是書為日本科技連盟於1950年7月10日至18日,邀請 Deming 博士在東京舉辦為期八天之「品質管制講習班」中之講詞,經日人筆錄而輯成。主其事者,為該連盟前專務理事已故小柳賢一先生。當時所用之教材為美國ASA之Z1.1,Z1.2,Z1.3 (即「品質管制指南」﹑「分析數據用的管制圖法」、「管制品質用的管制圖法」三書。現均譯成中文,由中央標準局列入國家標準,其編號分別為CNS一2311 Z45, CNS一2312 Z46, CNS-2579 Z79)。故本書中所引證之資料,均為美國原本頁數。是書說理詳明,深入淺出,且多質疑問難之辭,實為優良之讀本。如能與美國 Z1.1,Z1.2,Z1.3 三書,互相參閱,當相得益彰。

本書迻譯前,曾徵得小柳先生同意,並函請賜序,惟當時小柳先生正忙於籌備第一屆品質管制國際會議,遂寄來「品質管制與企業發展」一稿,綴以小言,以代序言。今小柳先生已作古人,特附同原函,製版刊出,以誌紀念。

本書譯稿早於53(1964)年元旦譯畢,嗣於當年4月間函告 Deming 博士,不僅獲得同意,且謂須重新校訂,實出望外,欣喜可知。旋於1965年4月間寄來校訂本及補充之原稿26頁,增刪甚多,本書原僅六講,而 Deming博士將第一講完全刪除,另增三講,復將緒言作為一講,合共九講。Deming博士對原稿之校讎,至為精審,雖一點一撇之微,亦必親加改正,可見其敬業之誠。因將部份原稿,刊於篇首,既所以對原作之珍視,亦足為吾人之楷模。


當時即送請中華民國品質管制學會印行,並已於出版委員會中編列預算,惟委員間觀點不一,有謂係十餘年前之著作,亦有認為須審閱譯稿者,致遷延未決,遂擱置迄今。其間 Deming博士數度來函詢問,備致關切,竟無以作答,深感愧疚,至今猶耿耿於懷。

今年11月23日至28日,Deming博士首次蒞台,將先後在台北及高雄兩地演講三天,為我國品管界一大盛事。而此稿之亟待出版,殆無置疑。因將修訂之原稿,夙夜趕譯,付諸剞劂,作為 Deming博士蒞台之紀念,亦所以稍償內心之歉意,諒Deming博士當為之莞爾也。

回顧我國之推行品質管制,始於民國42年,與日本不過相去五年。日本今日能有如此輝煌之成就,雖云係Deming博士創導之力,而全國上下共同努力之功,實不可沒,每一念及吾國品管界之情形,能不汗顏。此次Deming博士惠然肯來,深冀能一如過去在日本時之開創精神,使吾國企業界、學術界、品管界之人士,奮起直追,卓然有以自立,則Deming博士固不虛此行,而所以慰先生者,亦在於此矣。
是書之成,馮永業兄出力最多,並承夏子中兄校閱,糾舛正誤,益使本書生色。其間復蒙已故之Henry J. Jacobson先生代為與 Deming博士聯繫,將修訂本轉來,盛情彌感。本書第二講至第四講為李維文兄所校閱,亦不敢掠美。此外,陳瑞益兄協助校對,得以如期出版,均於此一併致誠摯之謝意。

茲值本書問世之日,爰述譯印經過,誌諸篇首,以留鴻爪,藉資紀念云爾。是為序。
振謹識
於中國生產力中心台南區服務處
中華民國五十九年十一月

1970年8月15日 星期六

1940s


1940
2/24 Harold Hotelling 給印度政府備忘錄說明 "統計理論和技術的研究"之本質和重要性
Deming 著的 Out of the Crisis 第16章引為題詞

Hotelling, H. (1940). The teaching of statistics, Ann. Math. Statist., 11, 457-470.



1942(民31年)

WED was engaged by the U.S. Army as a consultant to set up courses in SQC for engineers...

JMA, Japan Management Association 成立

http://www.jma.or.jp/
歷史
http://www.jma.or.jp/about_jma/jma_history.html


Deming developed the sampling techniques that were used for the first time during the 1940 U.S. Census. During World War II, Deming was a member of the five-man Emergency Technical Committee. He worked with H.F. Dodge, A.G. Ashcroft, Leslie E. Simon, R.E. Wareham, and John Gaillard in the compilation of the American War Standards (American Standards Association ZI.1-3 published in 1942) and taught statistical process control (SPC) techniques to workers engaged in wartime production.

1943(民32年)

Statistical Adjustment of Data, John Wiley and Sons, 1943, Dover 1964. by W. Edwards Deming:

Demming (1943) 說:「蒐集數據的目的是為了行動」。

Sample Design in Business Research, John Wiley and Sons, 1960. by W. Edwards Deming:

論文清單

http://www.deming.org/resources/publications.html

1944

Deming
Some Principles of the Shewhart Methods of Quality Control, Mechanical Engineering, vol.66, pp.173-177, March, 1944


194534

JSA, Japan Standards association 成立

92本正式投降Atomic bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945, and Japan's formal surrender on September 2 ended the war.

1946-48 a "blue funk period".

1946(民35年)

American Society for Quality Control (ASQC)成立,後改名 American Society for Quality (ASQ)。從 1987 ASQ 代處理 the Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award, 行政。

JUSE 成立

JUSE is the telegraphic code for the Union of Japanese Science and Engineering, Tokyo.

JUSE was established in May 1946 and authorized as the foundation of a juridical body by the Science and Technology Agency (reformed Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology) of Japanese Government.
    PURPOSE
    The objective of JUSE is to promote systematic studies needed for the advancement of science and technology, whereupon to contribute to the development of culture and industry.
ACTIVITIES
The field of science and technology that JUSE has been involved in since its establishment belongs to the Soft Technology where the mathematical and statistical methods can be applied to the corporate management. Especially, the quality control has been the primary subject of JUSE and great efforts have been bent to the development and dissemination of the technology. Today, JUSE is widely known in and out the country as a "Center of Quality Control in Japan". JUSE has managed the Deming Prize, which has been well known in the field of the Total Quality Management. Moreover, we are a member of the sponsor group of the Campaign "Quality Month" in November in Japan. During recent years, more than 20,000 people including 500 of senior managers from enterprises have been taking part in our Education and Training Courses in the fields below every year that is one of our main activities.
  1. Quality Management, QC Circle
  2. Reliability Engineering
  3. Multivariate Analysis, Design of Experiment
  4. Marketing Analysis, Sensory Evaluation, Products Liability
  5. ISO Management System(QMS, EMS), OHSMS, ISMS and others.


Homer M. Sarason 到日本聯軍統率總部的民用通信部CCS-SCAPCivil Communication Section- Supreme Commander for the Allied Powers 任職至1950,開過 CCS管理研討會。事蹟參考:Louis E. Schultz Profiles in Quality: Learning from the Masters『品質群像: 向品管大師學習』劉秋枝譯,寂天文化事業有限公司,1999


Eugene L. Grant, Professor of Economics of Engineering at Stanford, was a
profound scholar, an inspiring teacher, a mentor who influenced the careers of
many both in academia and industry, an excellent writer, a distinguished
engineer, and a pioneer in engineering education. He is well known worldwide
for his textbooks Principles of Engineering Economy, first published in 1930 and
now in its eighth edition (1990, co-authored with W. G. Ireson and Richard
Leavenworth) and Statistical Quality Control, first published in 1946 and now in
its seventh edition (1996, co-authored with Richard Leavenworth).

WED在一九七三1973年對第四版有書評
WED
Consultant in research and in industry 1946-93

Professor of Statistics, Graduate School of Business Administration, New York University 1946-93

Statistician, Allied Mission to Observe the Greek Elections, January-April 1946; July-October 1946 Consultant


* Morris H. Hansen and William N. Hurwitz, "The problem of nonresponse in sample-surveys," J. Amer. Statist. Ass., vol. 41, 1946: pp. 517-529



on Page 241:
"... t I learned the use of this X-pattern at the Alfred Politz Research, Inc., New York, about 1946. An example of a map and list of portions, with selection of I portion, ..."

1947(民36年)

Henry Ford過世(1863−1947)

統計品管專家W.愛德華.戴明由美國政府(為S. A. Rice領島隊的統計任務團成員)派來日本,任務是協助日本作1951年人口/經濟調查。Deming自言與農業部、住屋建設、就業部連絡,也認識許多統計學家和經濟學家。

Delegate from the A.A.A.S. to the Indian Science Congress, New Delhi, January 1947
Adviser in sampling techniques to the Supreme Command of the Allied Powers, Tokyo, 1947 and 1950

Member of the United Nations Sub-Commission on Statistical Sampling, 1947-52

HC emailed to Prof. Kerridge, 2006
Dear David,
I found out that "probability-sample and judgement samples" were coined by WED. In a note in his Some Theory of Sampling reads as follows,
These terms and definitions were first put forward by the author in an article "Some criteria for judging the quality of survey," J. of Marketing, vol. xii, 1947....(p.9)
----Answer from David
Dear Hanching and Jean-Marie

>I found out that "probability-sample and judgement samples" were coined
by WED.

Thanks for that reference. Judgement samples had been used before - as
WED points out in "probability as a guide for action" all drug-testing
is done on judgement samples. But from the reference you give it shows
that Deming was the first to make the distinction clear.

In a way, this is related to Shewhart's distinction between pure and
applied science. In the early days of statistical theory, applied
science was regarded as inferior. R A Fisher, for example, treated pure
science as the only real science, which is absurd when you consider his
contributions to Agriculture. But this was the academic snobbery of the
time - which is still powerful.

In pure science all samples are judgement samples, because you can
never enumerate the problems that will be met in the future. R A Fisher
was aware of this, and always spoke of sampling from a "Hypothetical
infinite population". This is clearly not dealing with an actual, known
population, as in all enumerative studies.


Best wishes

David


Professor W. Edwards Deming Professor of Statistics New York University 1947- 1993


.Morris Hansen, "The sampling of human populations," Proceedings of the International Statistical Institute, Washington, 1947.


FORMOSA KILLINGS 1947

http://blog.roodo.com/polypomo/archives/2785329.html
FORMOSA KILLINGS ARE PUT AT 10,000; Foreigners Say the Chinese Slaughtered Demonstrators Without Provocation

By TILLMAN DURDINSpecial to THE NEW YORK TIMES.

March 29, 1947, Saturday

Page 6, 554 words

NANKING, March 28 -- Foreigners who have just returned to China from Formosa corroborate reports of wholesale slaughter by Chinese troops and police during anti-Government demonstrations a month ago. [ END OF FIRST PARAGRAPH ]


---
The history of modern photography is usually traced back to the first
chemical picture ever taken back in 1827. Fast forward more than a hundred
years and the Polaroid Corporation unveiled the landmark instant film
camera, commercially released in 1947.

The DW-WORLD Article
http://newsletter.dw-world.de/re?l=ew2p4rI44va89pI4

1948

Hotelling, H., Bartky, W. Deming, W.E.,Friedman, M., Hoel, P.(1948). The Teaching of

Statistics, A Report of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics Committee on the

Teaching of Statistics, Ann. Math. Stat. 19, 95-115

1949(民38年)

1949年是個劃時代的歲月,中國、台灣、全世界發生了驚天動地的變化。
The Western powers pledge cooperation as Moscow breaks the U.S. nuclear monopoly and communists take over China.

1949年春天,科技連盟(JUSE)的「品管研究小組(QCRG)」已開始結合產、官、學各路人士,共同合作研究如何利用統計方法來做品質管制。

Hotelling, H. (1949). The place of statistics in the university, Proc. of the Berkeley

Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probbability, 21-49, University of California

Press.

#63 Observations on the 1946 elections in Greece
by Deming, Jessen, Kempthorne, Daly, Amer. Sociological Rev., vol.14, 1949: pp.11-16

1949年博士協助日本人口普查局準備 設計 1950年 10月的調查東京和大阪之人口

Return to book

31. on Page 267:
"... my privilege to be there during the preceding summer, and to assist in the design of a sample-tabulation of the complete census. The aim was to provide advance tabulations of a number of important characteristics of the people, not for small areas, ..."

1. on Page 267:
"... know that they are working on a sample at all. • 1 wish to record my indebtedness to Professor Kinichiro Saito of St. Sophia University, Tokyo, and to Professor Akira Asai of Chiba University for the privilege of working with them ..."
2. on Page 424:
"... P 2C * Kinichiro Saito, "Maximum likelihood estimate of proportion using supplementary information," Bull. Math. Statist., vol. 7, 1956: pp. 11-17 (Research Association of Statistical Sciences, Fukuoka, Japan)"






« 摘要


「1940」的搜尋結果

「1942」的搜尋結果


「1943」的搜尋結果

第 216 頁
7 (July 1952): 84-89; JS Pairo, "Using ratio-delay studies to set allowance," Factory 106, no. 10 (October 1943): 94. ...
第 447 頁
... Alexander M. Mood, "On the dependence of sampling inspection plans upon population distributions," Annals of Mathematical Statistics 14 (1943): 415-425. ...
第 463 頁
... 1943 ...
第 464 頁
plans upon population distributions," Annals of Mathematical Statistics 14 (1943): 415^25. Joyce Orsini, "Simple rule to reduc

「1944」的搜尋結果

「1945」的搜尋結果


「1946」的搜尋結果

「1947」的搜尋結果



第 487 頁
... had acquired appreciation for the contribution to quality and productivity that the Shewhart methods might make to Japanese industry. The time was 1948 ...

「1949」的搜尋結果


1930s

1932 Deming married Elizabeth Shupe. The couple had two more children, Diana and Linda


THE TWILIGHT YEARS: The Paradox of Britain Between the Wars


1931(民20年)

Shewhart , Walter A., The Economic Control of Quality of Manufactured Product , Princeton , N. J.D. Van Nostrand Company , 1931. Reprinted by American Society for Quality Control , 1980.(當時台灣有翻印) 。此書有法文本(Jean-Marie Gaogue翻譯)和日文本。

「1931」的搜尋結果

1934

On the Statistical Theory of Errors - all 4 versions »
WE Deming, RT Birge - Reviews of Modern Physics, 1934 - APS
Erratum: W. Edwards Deming and Raymond T. Birge, On the Statistical Theory of Errors Errata, Rev. Mod. Phys. 6, 281 (1934). ... (Some reference links may require a separate subscription.) ... Raymond T. Birge, Phys. Rev. 40, ...


楊逵於一九三四年十月發表短篇小說〈送報伕〉於東京《文學評論》(1932年在台灣發表前半)。它描寫弱勢者受資方壓榨的經歷,在不景氣的時代,為了謀得送報的差事,應徵者必須先繳交保證金,招募不到規定的訂戶數,不但領不到薪資,辛苦籌來的保證金亦會被全數沒收。多虧勞動者的自我覺醒,進行抗爭為自身權益奮戰,最後雇主也因被送報伕揭發壓榨勞工而被扭送警局。這是那個時代的共同主題,喚醒被欺凌與被侮辱的人要團結起來對抗強權。〈送報伕〉具有為弱勢執言的精神,"為什麼沒有在台灣掀起閱讀風潮,難道是國民性的不同,抑或台灣人不習慣從文學作品中尋找精神的出路,而是直接投身滾滾洪流般的社會運動來快速有效?"



1935(民24年)

1935-1953 Head, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Graduate School, Agriculture Department

Deming invited Shewhart, as well as Fisher, Wishart, Cochran, and others, to lecture at USDA.

「1935」的搜尋結果


1936(民25年)

他休假到倫敦去進修,當然知道這老師是世界一流人才:

1936 Studied under Sir Ronald Aylmer Fisher and Jerzy Neyman at University College, London, England


There's no reason that an exhibition whose sole organizing principle is to present photographs taken in a single year should be meaningful, let alone interesting. If anything, the opposite is true: the overall quality of work produced in a given year is apt to be average.

On the other hand, no period is without some good work; judicious selection could make any year look good. And such a selection might suggest other understandings about the period in question.

No doubt that was the thinking behind "1936," at the James Danziger Gallery, and "Circa 1956," a companion show at the 292 Gallery, both in SoHo. Both focus on works made in a given year, although only "1936" adheres closely to that restriction; the show at 292 includes works from throughout the 1950's.


1937(民26年)


「1937」的搜尋結果


In 1937, Dr. Juran created the "Pareto principle," which millions of managers rely on to help separate the "vital few" from the "useful many" in their activities. This is commonly referred to as the 80-20 principle. Its universal application makes it one of the most useful concepts and tools of modern-day management. This is now referred to as Juran's Pareto Principle.

1938(民27年)

Least Squares, The Graduate School, Department of Agriculture, Washington 1938. by W. Edwards Deming: 此法稱為Deming最小平方法, 例:木梨非線形関数に対する最小二法(デミングの最小二法)について ... 創的で画期的方法

Deming 更是這本演講集的編輯/改寫者:Lectures and Conferences on Mathematical Statistics, Graduate School, U.S. Department of Agriculture ,1938 這本書印700本,很快就賣光了。Deming等人的文風都是追求清楚明白….傳記 Neyman-from life by C Reid - 1982 - Springer-Verlag New York--中文翻譯 奈曼:來自生活的統計學家 / 康斯坦絲.瑞德(Constance Reid)著 ; 姚慕生,陳克艱,王順義譯, 上海市 : 上海科學技術 , 2001[民90],

Shewhart USDA Lectures

10/26 nylon: chemical company DuPont announced the name of its new synthetic fiber (1938)

1939(民28年)

Shewhart , Walter A. Statistical Methods from the Viewpoint of Quality Control , Washington , D. C.Department of Agriculture , 1939. W. E. Deming(主編)

Seven years at the Bureau of the Census began in 1939


「1939」的搜尋結果

《華爾街日報》:市場營銷在低迷時期發揮了什麼作用?

科恩:在上世紀30年代初的大蕭條時期﹐寶潔公司 (Procter & Gamble Co.)說過﹐我們將竭盡全力營銷我們的產品﹐我們要在收音機上營銷──這類似於那個時代的互聯網──我們還將讚助這些小戲劇──這這就是它們最終被稱為 肥皂劇的原因。因此﹐(衰退時的一個教訓)就是市場﹐市場。不要削減營銷。

《華爾街日報》:你還研究過哪些不同尋常的衰退時期的策略?

科恩:我想國際商業機器公司(IBM)的沃特森(Tom Watson Sr.)在大蕭條時候的做法有些近乎瘋狂。

1932 年﹐他宣佈IBM將投資100萬美元在紐約州單獨建立一個打孔制表機研發實驗室。當時這個領域的所有其它企業都在削減研發支出。沃特森實際上是在僱用更多 的人、建造更多的機器﹐並且還告訴工廠﹐即使他不能賣掉機器﹐他那就繼續增加庫存。這給公司帶來了巨大的壓力。它們沒有賣出所有機器。

到了1935年﹐羅斯福總統簽署了社會保障法﹐公司和政府兩方面的數據處理因此也帶來了巨大的市場。這個有趣的例子顯示了一個人是如何相信他製造的產品擁有市場﹐和堅信市場遲早會重新復甦的。


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