The Politz papers : science and truth in marketing research /

這篇是許多年前的筆記。



The Politz papers : science and truth in marketing research / edited by Hugh S. Hardy ; with a foreword by Darrel B. Lucas and with additional notes by W. Edwards Deming，Chicago, Ill. : American Marketing Association, 1990

xvii, 351 p. : ill. ; 24 cm

2006/8/19

WED
1993 Published The New Economics for Industry, Government, Education
(Cambridge, Mass.: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for
Advanced Engineering Study. 240 pp.)

這是第二版，就我所知道，原稿在約1996年起就在業界流傳。Deming是老式的人，很穩健，他寧可讓稿子傳閱數年之後再定稿。


我這次讀第一、二、三章之前的引言，都讓我溫故知新。

首先天下文化的翻譯版，似乎要陷Deming 於不義：他們將原書許多「引用或受教」聲明，多刪去！
我談一下我的收獲：第一章How Are We Doing? 現況的省思

Nothing can do you so much harm as a lousy competitor. Be thankful for
a good competitor.
對你傷害最大的，莫過於差勁的對手；對強勁的好對手應心存感激。
──波利茲（Alfred Politz）

這翻譯比較有趣的是標點：原句號改成分號。這樣意思相等嗎？
我的"知新"是：稍微了解Alfred Politz。他的背景和Deming類似，都是從物理學轉抽樣統計與調查，成為當時名家。Alfred Politz 很早就發現受訪者容易「假仙」，從俗而不說真話……
1902-1982


有趣的是Hugh S. Hardy, ed. The Politz Papers: Science and Truth in
Marketing Research, Chicago: The American Marketing Association, 1990,
訪問Deming對傳主Politz 的看法，我轉引According to Edwards Deming, Politz "was a
brilliant, articulate, scientifically trained immigrant who made a significant and lasting contribution to the world of marketing."
(Hardy, 1990, xvii)

Said to have "accomplished a near revolution in marketing research during his thirty-year tenure in the United States," (Hardy, 1990, xi)
換句話說，我們對於Deming的朋友圈，簡直還很無知。

第1章     現況的省思

對你傷害最大的，莫過於差勁的對手。對於好對手， 應心存感激。──阿爾弗雷德‧波利茲（Alfred Politz (1902-1982)，是"投票和輿情分析"與市場研究領域的先驅。戴明博士好友。——譯注）
阿爾弗雷德‧波利茲 (ALFRED POLITZ 1902-1982)是"投票和輿情分析"和市場研究領域的先驅。

波利茲先生取得柏林大學物理學博士。1937年移民美國，在埃爾莫羅珀(Elmo Roper)公司上班。1943年在曼哈頓創立阿爾弗雷德‧波利茲研究公司。1967年退休時，他將該公司賣掉。20多年來，他對於市場研究這行業的成長貢獻頗大。

他在抽樣和評估公眾的態度領域有創新，贏得了多項專業獎項。Media-Scope雜誌在1960因他的創新授獎給他。1963年此雜誌又頒給他"創新媒體研究獎。1976年的廣告研究基金會  Advertising Research Foundation 的年度會議上，他被評為廣告研究的創始人之一，並稱讚他在抽樣上的創新。

在早期市場研究蓬勃發展、擴張時，民意調查常有作弊情形，譬如說，由業務員冒充投票者。對於這些造假的發展，波利茲先生領導團對揭發、打擊  (1949年)。1954年，波利茲先生開發了戶外廣告的有效性的確定技術。他使用改進的空軍攝像頭，通過紅外線攝影來算出讀廣告的讀者數。

1990年，位於芝加哥的美國行銷協會出版他的論文集。Hugh S. Hardy, ed. The Politz Papers: Science and Truth in Marketing Research, Chicago: The American Marketing Association, 1990, 書中有簡短的戴明博士訪問稿，以及戴明博士寫他利用統計學在日本帶動的品質革命。

阿爾弗雷德‧波利茲是戴明博士好友。他在40年代常到華盛頓去向戴明請教，最後說服他到紐約大學兼課，方便自己就近共同研究。(The Politz Papers, pp. xiii-xvii)---本書中有兩篇論文與戴明博士相關：

Politz, A. and Deming, W.E. (1953) ‘On the Necessity of Presenting Consumer Preferences as Predictions", Journal of Marketing, 18 (1), July 1953, 1-5, 收入本書 pp. 100-105
Politz, A. (1957) ‘Science and Truth in Marketing Research’ , Harvard Business Review 35(1): 117–26 . 收入本書 pp. 106-122

戴明博士的著作《企業研究的樣本設計》"Sample Design in Business Research (Wiley, 1960), 中，有二個共同參與的個案。

4月

Notes by W. Edwards Deming

The Politz Papers, pp. xiii-xvii (...with notes from WED. I read Alfred is the person persuaded WED to teach in NYU and worked together some papers, one of them was in the collection of papers. I read two participative cases in Sample design in Business Research.)

Alfred and I had numerous discussions on all of the foregoing, and we worked together to adapt sampling methods for his use in sampling individuals for nation-wide market surveys. Alfred Politz understood marketing research as a problem of the analytic kind, and we also discussed what we both considered the necessity to make predictions. We collaborated in a joint article, published in Journal of Marketing (see Chapter 5.2), in which we tried to explain that marketing requires predictions: that marketing research and consumer research are carried out for the purpose of making better predictions- to try to avoid wild shots.

He believed in cooperation, and created a spiritual of cooperation with well-meaning firms and individuals on Madison Avenue, friends and competitors alike. He shared with all of them the results of his own innovations, as well as his failures.

Alfred said repeatedly that no one can do you so much harm as a lousy competitor. So right he was. Be thankful for a good competitor.

While I may have contributed to Alfred Politz's work in market research, he contributed a great deal that was helpful to me in my international consulting work. In this later respect, I thought that the readers of this book might be interested in notes that follow, which were prepared in 1950 for conferences with top management of major corporations in Japan. (pp. xiv-xv)


我的知新是：稍微了解Alfred Politz。他的背景和Deming類似，都是從物理學轉抽樣統計與調查，成為當時名家。Alfred Politz 很早就發現受訪者容易「假仙」，從俗而不說真話……
有趣的是Hugh S. Hardy, ed. The Politz Papers: Science and Truth in
Marketing Research, Chicago: The American Marketing Association, 1990,
訪問Deming對傳主Politz 的看法，我轉引如下：According to Edwards Deming,

"Politz was intimately involved in only the marketing side of the equation, but he fully understood and endorsed the dual importance of statistical quality control. This was evidenced by his life-long emphasis on the product first and advertising second. Alfred was a brilliant, articulate, scientifically trained immigrant who made a significant and lasting contribution to the world of marketing. This book will help to document that contribution."
(Hardy, 1990, xvii) Said to have "accomplished a near revolution in
marketing research during his thirty-year tenure in the United States," (Hardy, 1990, xi)

八零年代Ted Levitt教授

的著作影響我HC很大 譬如說下述兩段
不過我這回在The Politz papers : science and truth in marketing research
收錄的論文A Critical Appraisal Of Media Research (7.3, 1947, pp. 188-205) 之圖(four audiences - one medium, p. 198) 讀出類似
"THE TOTAL PRODUCT CONCEPT" 的說法。

"Kano 先生這些1970s 末期、 1980s初期的日文作品，在 1990s初期才在西方普遍傳開。之後，種種Kano 模式的圖示和簡化版本、調整版本等網路上滿天飛。我認為，這是西方產品行銷學（marketing ）之一種模式和進路，不過，這專業還是有許多東西可以參照，譬如說，『引爆行銷想像力』The Marketing Imagination by T. Levitt 中對於「全面產品概念」（THE TOTAL PRODUCT CONCEPT ）的說法（p.79 ，發表於 Harvard Business Review,1980一二月號 ），關於這方面之介紹，我在約 20年前的本學會國際會議發表過論文。這些年來，這方面還有許多相關的文獻。"
我個人認為宋文襄先生 ( W. H. Sung)1984年9月18日在台北圓山大飯店舉行「

國 際品質大會」( International Quality Symposium, 1984，Taipei, Taiwan)乃是學會的一里程碑。會議主題為" 品質--生產力之鑰 (Quality - Key To Productivity)"，深得Deming和 Ishikawa等大師的精髓。這次會議，我部門投稿{品質競爭情報系統}(pp.117-127 參考資料第一本書為The Marketing Imagination by T. Levitt 1883, 電子所圖書館有我建議購買的近七本Ted的著作 )，{軟體測試簡介與GKS應用例}( pp. 597-609)，{音樂卡品質改善個案}(pp.891-99)等3篇，個人並負責主持品質稽查組論文發表及討論。電子工業研究所(ERSO)之IC品管部另有3篇論文發表。ERSO 在鍾漢清影響下出錢(我記得是請史欽泰所長捐十萬元整)、出力。"

ALFRED POLITZ, OPINION ANALYST

(NYT); Obituary

November 11, 1982, Thursday

Late City Final Edition, Section B, Page 15, Column 1, 294 words

[ DISPLAYING ABSTRACT ]Alfred Politz, an early leader in the techniques of polling and opinion analysis and founder of a market research company, died of cancer Monday at his home in Odessa, Fla. He was 80 years old. Mr. Politz established Alfred Politz Research Inc. in Manhattan in 1943, six years after ...

First of all, I don’t know where this “Godfather” of marketing research stuff started, but I’m not it – Alfred Politz, Art Nielsen, Sr., and George Gallup are the real godfathers of this profession. I’ve just spent the last 34 years working in it and trying to make it better.

Poll Taker's Slant Is Not to Have One; POLLSTER'S SLANT IS NOT TO HAVE ONE

By JOHN STUART

October 17, 1954, Sunday

Section: BUSINESS FINANCIAL, Page F1, 627 words

The recent announcement by the Chrysler Corporation that tubeless tires will be original equipment on its 1955 cars will relieve the curiosity of some 1,700 field interviewers of Alfred Politz Research, Inc.
1 But the other day Alfred Politz! smilingly admitted that the job had'been done for Chrysler. Typically, it provided the objective information on a ...

Advertising: Ratings for Market Research; Field Termed Mere ...

Advertising: Ratings for Market Research; Field Termed Mere 'Status Symbol' at Many Concerns Primary Characteristics Demand Expanding Big Increase Noted in Number of Such Organizations Decision-Making

The other day, in an address before a Southern marketing group, Alfred Politz observed that market research had become "a status symbol." ...May 20, 1962

第二章引的是Josh Billings 是19世紀美國第二號幽默大師。同樣/類似的引言在網路上可以找到，不過Deming引的較為清礎。
第三章的傳道書引言最堪玩味：我思考為什麼在談系統的一章Introduction to a System ，竟然引這樣的妙言：
傳道書 : Ecclesiastes
There is nothing better for a man to do than to eat and drink and
enjoy himself in return for his labours.
Ecclesiastes
2:24 人莫強如喫喝、且在勞碌中享福．我看這也是出於　神的手。
---

人除了吃喝和享受自己勞作之所得以外，別無更好的事。我也看透了：這是從天主手裏來的。
訓道篇 Ecclesiastes 共 12 章 2：24

----後來我也許稍微想通了。
現在談基督教（新教和天主教）的翻譯，似乎都和英文翻譯不太一樣：
吃喝享受等三種應是勞苦之功，兩種翻譯將吃喝和享受分開談？

評論：消費者研究與調查（鍾漢清）

戴明在日本有一未竟之志，即消費者研究。他在三0年代末就發表這方面的論文。1950—1952年訪日，多少要強調「消費者研究」為生產系統中重要的一環。可是那時候的日本，問題是缺稀和選擇足，而不是行銷。行銷這門學問，當時的美國至少領先日本廿年。

所以說，在五0年代，消費者研究為戴明的「最愛」，可是日本的學生中大多是工程師（技師），知音者寡。我們可以說，戴明在這方面是壯志未酬。不過，戴明多少播下種子，所以在近五十年後（1999）的日本『科技史』上，還有人提及「數量化」在日本的發展，戴明是位重要的導師。＊（詳附文：日本科學史中的戴明）

2000年又美國人口普查年（美國憲法規定十年作一次）。名美國歷史學家丹尼爾．布爾斯廷（D﹒ J﹒ Boorstin）在名作《美國人三部曲第三部：民主歷程》中說，20世紀美國人極重視統計數字。在1940年代，戴明博士就是個知名的「統計調查專家」，並是美國人口普查局的顧問。人口普查局的人對他極禮遇，所以戴明在半世紀的傑作《新經濟學》中，都要以該局的領導人為例，說明高階主管如何帶領"領導轉型"之角色。

戴明在1930年代末就在美國作過"消費者研究"，即研究消費者的喜好，並進而重新設計產品來適應消費者。他在1947年就以專家身份，應邀去日本做「國勢力量」的「統計抽樣調查」的顧問。由於日本當時進行抽樣調查的時機尚未成熟，所以這次訪日表面上是無功而返。其實，單以這種"成敗"來論他，是極偏頗的。

1999年10月號日本《科學史》有篇探討「數量法如何在日本擴散、形成」論文中計指出，日本的主要負責人小林在戰後主要是學戴明博士的方法。所以說，廣義而言，戴明也是「日本統計調查之父」。

歷史也許很公平，戴明一生主張統計研究主要可分為像人口普查等，主要的問題是計數（有多少），他稱為「計數型研究」；另外一般改善上最常用的方式（問：為什麼？），他叫「分析型」研究。戴明在日本，計數型等專案的收穫也許不太大，但是卻因1950年受日本科技連邀請，協助各大公司工廠的工程（品管）作「分析型」（改善）研究，成績大放異彩。真是「塞翁失馬，焉知非福？」

我們不妨將「那時代」在這方面的一篇檢討文章摘出，讓大家了解這門學問發展的一些方向。我取材是Pierre Martineau 發表在1955年七/八月號的Harvard Business Review，題為「該是研究消費者的時候了（It`s Time to Research The Consumer）」，那時消費者研究統計方法，多少快成型了，不過這篇文章還提到：必須作消費者的「情感」上的研究，而不只是統計而已。所以，消費者的研究，要「情」、「理」（邏輯、統計）、「法」、（現實、系統）兼具的。這篇文章也提出戴明區分統計（應用科學）研究要分為「計數型」與「分析型」兩類之重要，因為這篇一直強調：要追問消費者研究結果，解釋「為什麼？」（「分析型」）的重要性。

他的大體論述如下：

消費者是一動態的、有情感的、有生命的機體。，而研究消費者，不只是諸如「多少人、以多少價格、買那一品牌多少量」等統計數字，而更應進而研究消費者為何會有如此行為。所以，如果不談廣泛的社會及心理方面研究，消費者研究無異是畫地自限，使自己不能了解、善用可能極有價值的消費者的種種源流—它們既可做消費者行為的診斷，也可作為預測之用。作者強調：消費者研究不只應由商學院來做，而且要有更廣泛的人文修練的團隊（人類學、社會學、社會心理及心理分析等等）來做研究。要是將它交給數理科的研究人員，就可能無法應用種種社會科學資源，如此，又會使得銷售主管只得依賴其直覺方便行事…。我們從上文可了解五0年代美國的一些"批評之言"，（我讀的HBR文選叫《現代行銷策略》（Modern Marketing Strategy），另選一篇為「善用電腦來模擬消費者的行為研究」。）其實，該文指出一項重要的消費者研究人員的要求：他們要能與各階層的管理人員善加溝通—由於美式專家溝通不良，美國的「生產系統」一直走向「各自為政」的路：廣告、設計、銷售策略，很少協商「研究部門」。這點在以後數十年也很少有改善。該文作者在十年後重印該文為HBR選集時，不肯更改一字，因為他以為，這些年來（即1955至1965年左右），許多公司仍然是把消費者研究，看成是「說說而已」。

Return to book

1.	on Page 67:
	"... remedy is to try to eliminate the nonresponse, either by calling back again and again, or by use of the Politz plan. The Politz plan enquires of each person interviewed whether he was at home the night before the interview, 2 ..."
2.	on Page 68:
	"... STANDARDS OF STATISTICAL PRACTICE It is possible to show that, on the basis of certain reasonable assumptions, use of the Politz plan that enquires concerning 3 nights in addition to the 1, 2, or 3 nights when interviews were attempted, is ..."
3.	on Page 70:
	"... is why, in modern practice, a sample-design includes provision for a large number of recalls, or for use of the Politz plan (p. 67). Remark 2. At a lecture on sampling that I gave in Germany, ..."
4.	on Page 213:
	"... t I am indebted to Alfred Politz Research, Inc., of New York, and to my friend and colleague Mr. Lester R. Frankel, formerly Vice President and Technical ..."
5.	on Page 230:
	"... and to multiply the interviews accordingly by the Politz plan (q.v., Ch. 5). If the job is only to collect information about the dwelling unit-the number of rooms and ..."
6.	on Page 241:
	"... t I learned the use of this X-pattern at the Alfred Politz Research, Inc., New York, about 1946. An example of a map and list of portions, with selection of I portion, ..."
7.	on Page 301:
	"... in the strata of low rent and of the high rent, respectively. Let pl and pE * I thank Alfred Politz Research, Inc., New York, for the privilege of working on this survey. ..."
8.	on Page 326:
	"... family of 3 persons when the rules called for a random selection within such a family; (b) use of the Politz plan in the formation of the estimates, to correct for people not at home (Ch. 5); (c) weighting the results ..."
9.	from Index:
	"... , 69, 77, 182; reduction by follow-up, 68, 106; correction by Politz plan, 67 Nonsampling errors, of Type I 64; of Type II 65, 66; see also Audit (control) of the main ..."

Return to book

ALFRED POLITZ, OPINION ANALYST

Published: November 11, 1982

Alfred Politz, an early leader in the techniques of polling and opinion analysis and founder of a market research company, died of cancer Monday at his home in Odessa, Fla. He was 80 years old.

Mr. Politz established Alfred Politz Research Inc. in Manhattan in 1943, six years after arriving from Germany. He retired in 1967 when he sold the company.

For two decades Mr. Politz played a key role in the growth of the market research industry, winning several awards for his innovations in the sampling and assessing of public attitudes. Earlier, he worked for Elmo Roper.

Mr. Politz won the American Marketing Association's top leadership award in 1947 for developing more scientific standards and better techniques in marketing research.

He won the Media-Scope magazine award in 1960 for creativeness and the magazine's award in 1963 for creative media research. At the annual conference of the Advertising Research Foundation in 1976, he was honored as a founder of advertising research and cited as a sampling innovator.

During the early expansion of market research, Mr. Politz fought the growth of spurious opinion polls. In 1949, he headed a committee of the National Better Business Bureau to investigate and report on deceptive surveys in which salesmen posed as poll-takers.

In 1954, Mr. Politz developed a technique for determining the effectiveness of outdoor advertising through the use of a modified Air Force camera that could count readers of the ad through infrared photography.

Mr. Politz was born in Berlin and earned a doctorate in physics at the University of Berlin. He is survived by his wife, Martha.

紐約時報訃聞 1982.11.11

阿爾弗雷德‧波利茲 (ALFRED POLITZ 1902-1982)，輿情分析師

發布時間：1982年11月11日
阿爾弗雷德‧波利茲

，早期的領導者公司創始人的技術，死於癌症星期一在他的家在敖德薩，佛羅里達州，他80歲。

He won the magazine award in 1960 for creativeness and the magazine's award in 1963 for creative media research. At the annual conference of then 1976,

波利茲先生獲得了美國營銷協會的高層領導獎於1947年制定更科學的標準，並在市場營銷研究更好的技術。


。他的妻子瑪莎。