「華人戴明學院」是戴明哲學的學習共同體 ,致力於淵博型智識系統的研究、推廣和運用。 The purpose of this blog is to advance the ideas and ideals of W. Edwards Deming.

2014年7月26日 星期六

Alfred Politz (1902-1982)。戴明博士好友。

1     現況的省思
對你傷害最大的,莫過於差勁的對手。對於好對手, 應心存感激。
──阿爾弗雷德波利茲(Alfred Politz (1902-1982)"投票和輿情分析"與市場研究領域的先驅。戴明博士好友。——譯注

阿爾弗雷德‧波利茲 (ALFRED POLITZ 1902-1982)是"投票和輿情分析"和市場研究領域的先驅。

波利茲先生取得柏林大學物理學博士。1937年移民美國,在埃爾莫羅珀(Elmo Roper)公司上班。1943年在曼哈頓創立阿爾弗雷德‧波利茲研究公司。1967年退休時,他將該公司賣掉。20多年來,他對於市場研究這行業的成長貢獻頗大。
他在抽樣和評估公眾的態度領域有創新,贏得了多項專業獎項。Media-Scope雜誌在1960因他的創新授獎給他。1963年此雜誌又頒給他"創新媒體研究獎。1976年的廣告研究基金會  Advertising Research Foundation 的年度會議上,他被評為廣告研究的創始人之一,並稱讚他在抽樣上的創新。
在早期市場研究蓬勃發展、擴張時,民意調查常有作弊情形,譬如說,由業務員冒充投票者。對於這些造假的發展,波利茲先生領導團對揭發、打擊  (1949年)。1954年,波利茲先生開發了戶外廣告的有效性的確定技術。他使用改進的空軍攝像頭,通過紅外線攝影來算出讀廣告的讀者數。
1990年,位於芝加哥的美國行銷協會出版他的論文集。Hugh S. Hardy, ed. The Politz Papers: Science and Truth in Marketing Research, Chicago: The American Marketing Association, 1990, 書中有簡短的戴明博士訪問稿,以及戴明博士寫他利用統計學在日本帶動的品質革命。
阿爾弗雷德波利茲戴明博士好友。他在40年代常到華盛頓去向戴明請教,最後說服他到紐約大學兼課,方便自己就近共同研究。(The Politz Papers, pp. xiii-xvii)---本書中有兩篇論文與戴明博士相關:
Politz, A. and Deming, W.E. (1953) ‘On the Necessity of Presenting Consumer Preferences as Predictions", Journal of Marketing, 18 (1), July 1953, 1-5, 收入本書 pp. 100-105

Politz, A. (1957) ‘Science and Truth in Marketing Research’ , Harvard Business Review 35(1): 117–26 . 收入本書 pp. 106-122

戴明博士的著作《企業研究的樣本設計》"Sample Design in Business Research(Wiley, 1960), 中,有二個共同參與的個案。


2014年7月24日 星期四

中國乳製品行業整頓:用舊辦法解決因舊體系導致的問題 The Milk of Chinese Blindness By Joseph Sternberg

中國乳製品行業整頓:用舊辦法解決因舊體系導致的問題 The Milk of Chinese Blindness By Joseph Sternberg
2014年 07月 17日 11:59

中國乳製品行業整頓摸準脈門了嗎?Joseph Sternberg


概就在六年前的這個時候,數千名中國嬰兒生了病,甚至有幾名生命垂危,而這一切只因為他們吃了含有一種工業化學品的奶粉。2008年的這起醜聞讓中國乳製品行業的弊病暴露無遺。而最近幾週,北京方面清理該行業的努力進一步升級。但是,不要指望這些政府行動會達到其宣傳的效果。

導致這麼多嬰兒患病、六名嬰兒死亡的三聚氰胺是一種塑料成份,在奶粉中添加三聚氰胺可以顯示出更高的蛋白質含量,在質量檢測過程中矇騙過關。各界普遍認為,這種事情之所以發生,是因為中國的乳製品行業高度分散化。應該是拮據的小奶農和中間商合謀用加水、加化學品的牛奶欺騙了乳品廠,而且乳品廠無法發現他們的欺詐行為,因為自身的質量控制太容易被愚弄了。

Getty Images
2008年,京客隆超市,一箱三鹿奶粉從貨架上撤下,一名超市員工正在做記錄。
北京方面應對這起醜聞的方法與其應對大多數經濟挑戰如出一轍:化零為整。中國國務院近期發佈了一張聚焦於整合的乳製品行業新路線圖,目標是在今年年底之前形成10家大型奶粉生產商,並且到2018年時進一步縮減為五家。這麼做的理論是,規模做大,再加上垂直整合,將使得質量和安全控制更容易得到保障。

中國一些新的大型乳品公司開始上市,其中包括最早將於本週在香港上市的中國聖牧有機奶業(China Shengmu Organic Milk)。聖牧稱,該公司將把發行所得用於擴大其在中國的奶牛場網絡。出於差不多的原因,其他一些乳品公司正在接受私募股權投資;阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的馬雲(Jack Ma)就成了這類投資者之一,他的私募公司云鋒基金(Yunfeng Capital)上個月向內蒙古伊利實業集團股份有限公司(Inner Mongolia Yili)的一個子公司注入了大約人民幣20億元(合3.22億美元)。

同時,這些新近擴大了規模的乳製品公司正在大舉進軍海外市場,這是另一個經典的中國公司做法。中國的光明食品(Bright Food)在5月份收購了以色列著名乳製品公司Tnuva 56%的股份。分析師們熱議該筆交易的技術轉讓問題。以色列人將教會其中國老闆最佳安全操作規程。同時,中國嬰兒配方奶粉生產商聖元(Synutra)正在投資9,000萬歐元(合1.22億美元),在法國布列塔尼興建一個新的乳品廠,該廠的產品將通過出口方式回到國內銷售。

這一切聽起來都棒極了——如果你相信2008年這次以及其他災難性事件單純只是乳製品行業分散化的責任的話。但是還有許多國家的乳製品行業也是分散化的,而這些市場這些年來就沒有發生過中國頻繁見到的這種類型和程度的安全事故。

中國乳品行業失敗的根源不在該行業的結構上,而在於中國的經濟結構。別忘了2008年三聚氰胺丑聞的主角三鹿(Sanlu)可不是一個小型家庭奶牛場。三鹿當時是中國最大的奶企之一,新西蘭的恒天然(Fonterra)持有其部分股權,三鹿奶粉當時屬於中國最受歡迎的奶粉品牌之列。

之所以會發生三聚氰胺事件,一定程度上是因為中國的食品安全監管部門仍舊監管不力,同時中國受到限制的媒體無法起到監督作用。客氣地講,法制變化無常,難以有效查處違規違法行為。

與小型奶牛場存在諸多問題的傳統觀念相反的是,三鹿的規模可能恰恰加重了問題的嚴重性。該公司由地方政府所有,設有一位黨委書記,這也是中國國有企業的普遍做法。一般情況下,這種安排使中共控制了政治上敏感的漲價等問題,但在三聚氰胺事件中,這卻使中共得以暫時掩蓋了此次牛奶污染事件,並避免了一次產品被全面召回的事件,直到2008年奧運會后。

如果中國政府確實想整頓乳製品行業,就應該加快中國向市場經濟的轉型進程。但中國政府目前所做的卻是組建更多的“三鹿”。政府扶植(有些甚至是政府直接擁有)的大公司理論上講可能更易于監管。三鹿就是這樣一家公司,但對三鹿而言,這樣的結構也使這類企業更容易出於其他目的而被操縱。

與此同時,進口外國奶制品是引入外國食品安全經驗的最快和最簡單方式,但中國政府在這一問題上的做法依舊讓人難以理解。近年來,中國有關部門多次以虛假的價格操縱指控為由把矛頭對準外國奶粉生產商,並要求外國奶粉企業滿足繁瑣的登記規定。由於中國禁止外商在奶企中持有多數股權,這導致外商對企業缺乏控制權,很多公司因此不愿進一步投資中國乳業。

一個現代化的中國乳製品行業擁有的大企業可能比過去更多,也可能更少。中國在市場化進程中已經取得一定進展。去年,奶價下跌及牛肉價格上漲等經濟因素促使很多小奶牛場殺牛退出,出現了一場大規模的宰牛潮。中國食品安全監管部門的警惕性確實也在慢慢提高。

但中國政府直接插手人為安排乳業發展的做法將使造成市場反應的“短路”。這是在用一個舊辦法解決一個因舊體系導致的問題。無論中國國家主席習近平承諾什么其他的宏偉經濟改革,都別指望消費者短期內會信賴中國的牛奶。

(Joseph Sternberg是《華爾街日報》“Business Asia”專欄的編輯。)

The Milk of Chinese Blindness

Joseph Sternberg

At about this time six years ago, thousands of Chinese babies were falling ill and several were dying after consuming milk powder tainted with an industrial chemical. Recent weeks have seen further advances in Beijing's ongoing effort to clean up a dairy industry whose faults were laid bare by that 2008 scandal. Don't expect those governmental exertions to work as advertised.

Those infants were sickened, and in six cases killed, by melamine, a component in plastics that had been added to milk powder to trick quality tests into showing higher protein levels than the powder contained. The conventional wisdom holds that this happened because China's dairy industry was highly fragmented. Financially strapped small farmers and middlemen supposedly conspired to cheat dairies with watered-down, chemical-laden milk, and the dairies weren't able to discover the fraud because their quality controls were too easily fooled.

Beijing has responded to this scandal the way it responds to most economic challenges: by going big. The State Council recently released a new roadmap for the industry that focuses on consolidation, with a goal of forming 10 large milk-powder companies by the end of this year, and shrinking that further down to five by 2018. The theory is that massive scale, combined with vertical integration, will make quality and safety control easier to enforce.

Some of China's new wave of big dairy firms are starting to list shares, including China Shengmu Organic Milk as early as this week in Hong Kong, saying they will use the proceeds to beef up their networks of dairy farms in China. Others are accepting private-equity investment for much the same reason; Jack Ma of Alibaba fame became one such investor when his PE firm Yunfeng Capital poured around 2 billion yuan ($322 million) into a unit of Inner Mongolia Yili last month.

In another classic China Inc. move, these newly enlarged dairy companies are going on overseas sprees. China's Bright Food in May bought a 56% stake in Tnuva, one of Israel's best-known dairy companies. Analysts hype the technology-transfer aspect of this deal. The Israelis will enlighten their Chinese bosses about safety best practices. Chinese baby-formula manufacturer Synutra, meanwhile, is investing EUR 90 million ($122 million) in building a new dairy factory in Brittany in France from which it will export back to China.

This all sounds great, if you believe that a fragmented production system alone was responsible for the 2008 disaster and others. But plenty of other countries have fragmented dairy industries. None of those markets has experienced in living memory a safety scandal of the type and degree that afflicts China so frequently.

China's failure lies not in the structure of its dairy industry but in the structure of its economy. Remember that Sanlu, the company at the heart of the 2008 scandal, was not a small family farm. It was one of the largest dairy companies in China, part-owned by New Zealand's Fonterra, and its milk-powder brand was among the most popular.

That contamination incident happened partly because China's safety regulatory apparatus remains weak and its unfree press can't serve as a watchdog. Rule of law is too erratic-to put it kindly-to function as an effective check on bad behavior.

Contra the conventional wisdom about the ills of small farms, Sanlu's size arguably exacerbated the problem. The company was owned by its local government, and had acquired a Communist Party secretary, as Chinese companies generally do. Whereas at other times this allowed the party to control politically sensitive price increases and the like, in the melamine case it allowed the party to conceal the contamination and avoid a general recall until after the 2008 Olympics.

If Beijing were serious about cleaning up its dairy industry it would hasten China's transition to a market economy. Instead, Beijing is creating more Sanlus. Large firms fostered, if not outright owned, by the government may in theory make the companies easier for regulators to monitor, but Sanlu was such a company and turned out to be easier to manipulate for other ends, too.

Meanwhile, Beijing continues to evince ambivalence when it comes to the quickest and easiest way to import foreign safety know-how-importing foreign milk products. In recent years, the authorities have by turns hounded foreign milk-powder producers on spurious price-fixing charges and subjected them to burdensome registration requirements. Many have been deterred from further investing in Chinese dairies by a prohibition on majority ownership and the resulting lack of control.

A modern Chinese dairy industry might feature more large companies than have previously existed, or it might not. China has made some progress in allowing the market to decide. Witness a major cull of the cattle herd last year as economic factors such as falling milk prices and rising beef prices induced many marginal farmers to slaughter their cattle and exit the business. China's food-safety regulators slowly but surely grow more astute.

But Beijing's attempt to stage-manage the dairy industry's development will short-circuit market responses. It is an old-style solution to a problem that was caused by the old style. Whatever other grand economic reforms President Xi Jinping promises, don't expect consumers to trust Chinese milk any time soon.

Mr. Sternberg edits the Business Asia column.

2014年7月23日 星期三

中國“洋 快餐” 面臨 “肉荒” The Politics Behind China's Latest Food Scandal






2014年07月23日 06:44 AM
中國“洋快餐”面臨“肉荒”


英國《金融時報》 韓碧如 北京報道

中國的“洋快餐”連鎖店可能面臨供應鏈中斷。有關部門正對一家被指用過期產品冒充新鮮產品的肉類供應商加大檢查力度。


國家食品藥品監督管理總局昨日下令,對美國OSI集團旗下所有在華食品生產企業展開徹查。此前一家電視台發現,過了保質期的肉類產品在上海一家加工廠被貼上新標簽。


國家食藥監總局還下令對使用上海福喜食品有限公司(Shanghai Husi Food)產品的餐飲服務單位進行全面突擊檢查。該公司目前已被查封。

迄今徹查僅限於OSI的子公司,尚未影響到中國肉類加工產業整體。

總部位於伊利諾伊州的OSI集團,表示對這起食品安全問題感到“震驚”,並對所有受到影響的客戶和消費者致以“誠摯的道歉”。它說:“本公司管理層認為這是一起孤立事件。”

昨日星巴克(Starbucks)也加入百勝(Yum Brands)和麥當勞(McDonald’s)的行列,報廢上海福喜供應的產品,不過這家美國咖啡連鎖店表示,僅有“雞肉蘋果醬帕尼尼”一款產品受到影響。

宜家(Ikea)發布微博聲明稱,“自2013年9月起,上海福喜就不再為宜家提供任何食品原料。”

雖然福喜主要為上海地區國際快餐連鎖店供貨,但日本麥當勞五分之一的雞塊都由它提供。

快餐連鎖店往往依賴於可以大批量提供標準化產品的食品加工企業,因此短期內難以更換供應商。

DX咨詢(Daxue Consulting)的馬蒂厄•達維德(Matthieu David)說:“大公司通常有多家供應商,絕不會只有一家。”

“但問題在於,替補供應商能頂上所取代者的供應量嗎?”

國際快餐連鎖店在中國消費者間的聲譽通常比國內同業要高。但隨著食品供應鏈規模迅速擴大,食品安全是一個持續令人擔憂的問題。

許多外國企業依賴於外資加工廠,希望藉此控制質量。

譯者/曲雯雯

------
The Factory in the China Food Scandal Is Foreign-Owned. That Could Have Made It a Target
Michael Schuman/Beijing @MichaelSchuman  4:50 AM ET     

A 24-hour McDonalds restaurant in a shopping mall. KFC, McDonalds, Pizza Hut and other Western brands are suffering food safety crises in the Chinese market.
Zhang Peng—LightRocket via Getty Images
No company should be allowed to get away with unsafe products, but the harsh spotlight shone on multinational enterprises in China could be part of an effort to undermine them in favor of local businesses
Another day in China, another food scandal. This time the accused is a meat supplier to KFC and McDonald’s in China. An undercover investigation by a Chinese TV station, which aired on Sunday, claimed that a factory in Shanghai owned by Illinois-based OSI Group was shipping the fast-food giants expired meat. Later, coffee-shop chain Starbucks in China and McDonald’s outlets in Japan got dragged into the mess, as they, too, had meat from the suspect factory in their products.


Beyonce And Jay Z Divorce Rumor Has Everyone Freaking Out Huffington Post
The report sent the U.S. companies into full crisis management. Yum! Brands, which operates KFC, garners more than 40% of its total operating profit from China, while McDonald’s considers the country one of its most important growth markets, so neither can afford tainting their brands with tainted food. KFC and McDonald’s issued apologies to their customers, while suspending shipments from the Shanghai factory. Starbucks said it removed all products with meat from the supplier from its stores. OSI, meanwhile, is undertaking an investigation into the practices at the factory. On Wednesday, Chinese police detained five people in connection with the scandal.

The allegations, if proved true, reveal just how rotten China’s food supply really is. If such shenanigans are taking place at OSI, a supplier with a long history and good reputation, one can only shudder to imagine what’s happening elsewhere in the industry. Yet that raises another question almost as uncomfortable. In a country where companies routinely flout the law and officials — by the government’s own admission — are grossly corrupt, we’re forced to ask why some corporations and people find themselves in Chinese newspaper headlines or investigated by regulators, and not others. In other words, why was OSI the target of a time-consuming TV exposé and not another company?

TIME attempted repeatedly to pose that question to Dragon TV, which aired the investigation, but did not receive a return phone call. The focus on a foreign-owned factory, however, is part of a trend. Foreign companies do seem to figure prominently in state-media critiques and government investigations. The revelations about KFC and McDonald’s are just the latest in a series of attacks on popular foreign brands and established foreign companies in the country.

Since June, Chinese state media have claimed U.S. technology companies such as Microsoft and Yahoo can be used by Washington to spy on China. Earlier this month, Chinese state TV claimed that the Apple iPhone was a threat to national security. Alleged bribery by drugmaker GSK in China has been paraded in national headlines for months. American restaurant brands have been targeted before. Last year, Chinese media accused Starbucks of overcharging Chinese customers, while in 2012, state TV conducted another undercover investigation into McDonald’s, which it claimed exposed unsavory practices at a Beijing outlet.

Obviously, if foreign companies are engaged in illegal or improper practices in China, they must be held accountable. Yet the spotlight shone on the activities of foreign firms is so bright that it can be seen as part of another, more disturbing trend: an effort by the government to undermine foreign brands and business in China.

We can speculate why that might be happening. The government could be trying to reel in a few “big fish” to try to scare smaller fry into better behavior. Officials might be attempting to win points with the public by appearing to address issues of great public concern like food safety without roiling any Chinese interests. And in the process, the Chinese government might believe it can aid Chinese companies in their competition with foreign firms by undercutting the reputation of international brands. The latest exposé on KFC and McDonald’s could have serious repercussions for the American fast-food chains. In 2012, KFC’s business in China suffered badly when news broke that some of its chicken suppliers were pumping excessive antibiotics into their birds.

The Chinese government has a long history of attempting to tilt the local playing field in favor of its own firms. Foreign carmakers, though very successful in China, are still forced to manufacture in the country only through joint ventures with Chinese firms — a restriction most other emerging economies don’t impose. Reports from chambers of commerce accuse Chinese bureaucrats of routinely hampering the expansion of foreign business by taking a “go-slow” approach when issuing mandatory permits and licenses. There is a feeling among foreign businessmen in China that the government regularly discriminates against them. The latest survey conducted by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China revealed that 55% of the respondents believed that they are treated unfavorably compared with Chinese companies.

The process of opening the China market wider to foreign business has also stalled. More than half of the respondents in the E.U. survey said there had been no opening of the market in their industries over the past one or two years, while 9% believed that the market had become more closed. Such restricted access and other regulatory hurdles cost European companies nearly $29 billion in lost business in 2013, according to the survey. Generally, foreign businessmen feel that China has become a more hostile environment. A similar survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China found that 41% of its respondents felt less welcome in the country than they had been before.

Such an attitude by China’s government runs counter to the oft-repeated pledges by the most senior Chinese officials that they remain committed to their long-standing policy of opening up to the world. But it is also representative of a more assertive Chinese attitude toward the West in many aspects. Beijing is standing up for what it sees as its rights in various territorial disputes with its neighbors, as it tries to re-establish its traditional political and military dominance in East Asia. After decades of reliance on foreign investment to drive growth and introduce technology, China, now the world’s second largest economy, wants to rely more on its own companies and innovation.

That’s only natural. But at the same time, China, as a developing nation still in need of jobs and technology, can’t afford to chase off foreign investment, either. The fact is that China is becoming a less desirable place to invest, for reasons ranging from the slowing economy to rising costs to ambiguous government regulation. Only one-fifth of the companies queried in the E.U. Chamber survey said China was their top investment destination in 2013, down from one-third just two years ago. Meanwhile, the percentage of respondents who said they intend to expand their current operations in China, dropped sharply to 57% from 86% just last year. Beijing may see benefits in targeting foreign firms, but it should also be aware of the costs.

— With reporting by Chengcheng Jiang / Beijing

2014年7月22日 星期二

Google Quality Rater Guidelines

ENTREPRENEURS 
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7/18/2014 @ 11:11上午 |2,038 views

Google Quality Rater Guidelines Leaked: New Insights Revealed

A hot topic among webmasters and SEO professionals over the past week has been the leaked copy of Google’s Quality Rater Guidelines.
Not to be confused with Google’s Webmaster Guidelines, the Quality Rater Guidelines offer guidance to Google’s internal team of human search quality raters who measure the quality of search results and test algorithm changes.
Google updates this document periodically, and whenever they do, a leaked copy tends to emerge…much to the excitement of SEO professionals and marketers hoping to glean new insights from Google with regard to what actions they can take to help their website rank higher in search results. To read the document yourself (at least until it gets removed), you can access ithere.
While there are no major surprises contained in the manual, it does provide us with more detailed information and examples than we get from Google’s public-facing Webmaster Guidelines.
In this article, we’ll explore some of the changes to the most recent version of this document, as well as what these changes mean to business owners and marketers.
While these guidelines probably aren’t used for directly ranking websites (they’re used only to test search results for quality), they are helpful in order to gain a better understanding of how Google defines a “high quality” website.
A Re-Emphasis on ‘Your Money Your Life’ Pages
Although the concept of ‘Your Money Your Life’ (YMYL) pages was included in the previous manual, the newly leaked document emphasizes the importance of these types of pages. YMYL are pages or sites that could potentially impact the “future happiness, health or wealth of users.” These types of pages, because of their potential life-changing ramifications, are held to particularly high standards.
The manual lists some examples of these types of pages:
  • Shopping or financial transaction pages: webpages which allow users to make purchases, transfer money, pay bills, etc. online (such as online stores and online banking pages).
  • Financial information pages: webpages which provide advice or information about investments, taxes, retirement planning, home purchase, paying for college, buying insurance, etc.
  • Medical information pages: webpages which provide advice or information about health, drugs, specific diseases or conditions, mental health, nutrition, etc.
  • Legal information pages: webpages which provide legal advice or information on topics such as divorce, child custody, creating a will, becoming a citizen, etc.
  • Other: there are many other topics which you may consider YMYL, such as child adoption, car safety information, etc. Please use your judgment.
Takeaway: Webmasters and marketers should be keenly aware of what sites and pages qualify as YMYL content: if the content of your site could have an impact on the wealth, health or happiness of your readers, consider (at the least) having your content vetted by an industry expert. If you do have expertise or authority in a particular area, be sure to clearly display this on your site, not only for the benefit of human rates, but for the benefit of your readers as well.
E-A-T: Expertise/Authoritativeness/Trustworthiness
In this latest edition of the guidelines, a major emphasis has been put on the concept of E-A-T. While these factors have always been part of the evaluation of a site, this manual has defined the concept more explicitly. When evaluating sites and pages, raters will be looking for indications that the content meets these three criteria.
The guidelines indicate that raters should be looking for official indications of expertise when evaluating a site or page. For instance, if a site is offering medical advice, it should be written or vetted by a person or organization with the appropriate level of medical expertise. Likewise, information on money should come from someone with a high degree of experience or expertise in finance.
Raters are also told, however, that formal expertise isn’t always necessary. For instance, the owner of a hobby site will be unlikely to have any official degree of expertise on the topic; however, the “everyday” knowledge and expertise they possess may be enough to qualify them as an expert.
The guidelines state:
High quality pages and websites need enough expertise to be authoritative and trustworthy on their topic. Keep in mind that there are “expert” websites of all types, even gossip websites, fashion websites, humor websites, forum and Q&A pages, etc. In fact, some types of information are found almost exclusively on forums and discussions, where community of experts can provide valuable perspectives on specific topics….Some topics require less formal expertise. Many people write extremely detailed, helpful reviews of products or restaurants. Many people share tips and life experiences on forums, blogs, etc. These ordinary people may be considered experts in topics where they have life experience.
Raters are reminded that the standard for expertise will vary depending on the topic of the page. The question raters are told to ask themselves is, “What kind of expertise is required for the page to achieve its purpose well?”
Takeaway: Assess your website’s content and try to determine whether someone else would consider it authoritative and trustworthy. Is it written by an expert in your industry?
Positive Reputation Important for Determining Quality
A brief clarification on the topic of positive reputation has been added to version 5.0 of the handbook. The guidelines state:
Reputation is an important consideration when using the High rating. While a page can merit the High rating with no reputation, the High rating cannot be used for any website that has a convincing negative reputation. A very positive reputation can be a reason for using the High rating for an otherwise Medium page.
This means that excellent content alone isn’t enough: If your site consistently (and “convincingly”) receives negative reviews via blogs or forums, it won’t receive a high rating.
Raters are told to investigate the reputation of a site by running Google searches for site reviews, news articles, forum posts, BBB ratings, etc. which could give insight into the trustworthiness of a site. It’s noted that small websites will not be held to the same standards as larger sites; the guidelines state:
Many small, local businesses or community organizations have a small “web presence” and rely on word of mouth, not online reviews. For these smaller businesses and organizations, lack of reputation should not be considered an indication of low page quality.
Takeaway: A lack of online reviews isn’t a problem; it’s negative reviews that site owners should be concerned about. This seems to imply that search engine reputation management is more important than previously thought; it not only affects potential customers researching your brand, but also potentially your organic search rankings.
A Focus on Supplementary Content
Supplementary content (SC) is defined as any content that isn’t a page’s main content or ads. Some examples of supplementary content include footer info, links to related content, site navigation, features that help shoppers find similar products, etc. The manual points out that some of these features are more likely to be found on large websites. It states
Smaller websites such as websites for local businesses and community organizations, or personal websites and blogs, may need less SC for their purpose. A page can still receive aHigh or even Highest rating with no SC at all.
Takeaway: Webmasters should be asking themselves what types of supplementary content they can include to add value or to improve the users’ experience of the page. What tools, resources or articles would be helpful to the reader? How can you incorporate that into the page?
Other Tips for Webmasters
A few other important tips for webmasters are found scattered throughout the guide. Some of the most significant include:
  • Displaying your contact info and customer service info is more important than ever, particularly for shopping sites. If you run an e-commerce site, be sure to keep your ‘About’ and contact info prominent in order to convey the credibility of your site.
  • Page design matters: Ads should not distract users from finding the main content of a page, but should be easily “ignorable”. A page’s attractiveness is irrelevant, but users should be able to easily determine where the main content of a page is. Pages with many ads — particularly those at the top of page — may be given lower ratings.
  • Proper maintenance of a website is important: In order for a site to be deemed high quality, it must contain updated information; this is particularly important for news sites and other sites where current information is critical (like those containing medical info). Local or smaller sites are not expected to be updated as frequently.
What Makes a High Quality Page?
While this isn’t necessarily anything we didn’t know already, section 4.1 of the manual succinctly summarizes the main elements of a high quality page. The section is a nice checklist for site owners to follow to ensure their site is of the highest quality.
High quality rating requires at least one of the following high quality characteristics:
  • A satisfying amount of high quality MC [main content, as opposed to supplementary content].
  • The page and website are expert, authoritative, and trustworthy for the topic of the page.
  • The website has a good reputation for the topic of the page.
In addition, the page and website should have most of the following:
  • A satisfying amount of website information, for example, About Us information, Contact or Customer Service information, etc.
  • SC which contributes to a satisfying user experience on the page and website.
  • Functional page design which allows users to easily focus on MC and use SC as desired.
  • A website which is well cared for and maintained “
While it’s always useful to read and understand the Quality Rater Guidelines, they echo what we already knew: the way to have a website that ranks highly in Google search is to create high-quality, user-friendly content. These guidelines are helpful, however, in providing detailed examples of content and websites that both Google and your visitors will love.
What do you think of the new guidelines? Anything surprise you? Share your thoughts in the comments below!

2014年7月18日 星期五

王雲五關於 analytic 的字意說明

在禪宗未起以前,印度便有「瑜伽」,梵文為 yoga。此字是印度文與日耳曼文的混合語,在英文中為牛軛,引申起來,是管束的意思。即如何才能管束我們的心,訓練我們的心,使心完全向某一方向走,而能於身體上、精神上和知識上發生好的結果。

我前幾天查幾本辭典 yoga語原都是
[Hindi, from Sanskrit yogaḥ, union, joining.]

我以前在王雲五關於 analytic 的說明, 赫然發現他用的意思,正是Deming 所用的*,


所以我想去查胡適為何如此 這是太明顯的問題 我想去查1911年的大英
今天一查日本辭典 果然
  • [jóugə]
[名][U]((時にY-))《ヒンズー教》瑜伽(ゆが), ヨーガ
yogas of ...
何年もの….
[ヒンディ語←サンスクリットyoga(結合). △YOKE1
yo・gic〔jóuik〕
[形]
yó・gism
[名]



*

區別計數性及分析性研究

(譯按:戴明博士的「分析型研究」的意義,王雲五先生說得很明白:「『分析』可能有四個意義,除上述由整而分析的第一義,也可稱為化學的分析之外,….所謂數學的分析,即分析的第二義,係指從已知推及未知而言;所謂論理的分析,即分析的第三義,係指從結果追溯原因而言;所謂文學的分析,即分析的第四義,係指以部分代全部而言。」(王雲五「科學管理與科學方法」,收入《岫盧論管理》,頁21) ))

「任何實驗或可視為可能在相同條件下進行之諸實驗的〝母體〞之一個體。一系列的實驗為從此母體抽出之一樣本。
任何系列實驗,只有在使吾人能對該實驗所屬母體的統計常識能做出判斷時,才有用處。在很多時候,問題成為平均值,是直接平均值或兩數量差異平均。」(Student, 1908
「綜而言之,實驗必須如此進行,即其結果必須能成為要做結論之母體的隨機抽樣。」(Student, 1926
在完全計數或抽樣的設計及分析上,區別計數性(enumerative)及分析性(analytic)研究是極為重要的。此兩類研究的最後目的都是要提供處理/ 行動之理性基礎。問題存在那兒,有時有待解決。在計數性問題上,要對碗之某部份內容做些事,不管該部份是大或小。而在分析性問題上,是要做某事以管制及預測原因系統之結果,而該原因系統是過去造成母體 the universe 城市、市場、工業產品批、麥穀)者,而未來也會繼續影響之。
問題屬計數性的,因為該行動(即分配食物及物料)依多少人而定,而不是這些人民為何居於該城市。
就消費者角度而言,工業品之允收抽樣為一計數性運用數據;但是就生產者而言,可視為一分析性,因為該等抽樣有助其控制其製程。

2014年7月16日 星期三

品質眾生相(263-66 ):SAP的廣告:愛用國貨; Big data 告訴你 2014 年世界盃冠軍是德國;(Ford Motor Co.)將召回10.1萬輛汽車;通用承認缺陷召回840萬輛汽車;第16屆讀者文摘信譽品牌台灣得獎名單

SAP的廣告:愛用國貨

今年世足贏家德國隊隔了 24 年再度拿下冠軍獎杯,除了球員的優秀表現,總教練勒夫的秘密武器是「大數據」。歐洲軟體大廠思愛普(SAP)和德國足協合作,透過 SAP Match Insights 足球解決方案,在 SAP HANA 平台上運行,協助教練從大量的訓練數據中發現球員的優劣勢,進而擬定最適合球隊的戰略,成功帶領德國隊聰明奪冠。
IMAG3773

▲ SAP 將德國隊球員的即時資訊傳到 HANA 平台上,助教練掌控球隊狀況進而擬定戰略。(圖片來源:吳韻萱攝)

SAP 大中華區總裁紀秉盟(Mark Gibbs)說,德國隊球員穿的鞋子有感應器,可以記錄速度、平均步數等,加上有高速攝影機進行拍攝,SAP 捕捉到球員的細節動作後,會將即時資訊傳回 SAP HANA 平台,教練只要拿著平板電腦,就可以在 Match Insights 的介面上,針對球員的優缺點分析球隊狀態,並隨時調整戰略。「SAP 就像德國隊的第 12 個球員」,紀秉盟說。
據統計,10 個足球員若用3個球進行訓練,10 分鐘就能產出 700 萬個可供分析的數據。SAP Match Insights 要處理這麼龐大的資訊,需要有極快的處理速度。這不是 SAP 首次進軍體育界,在世足德國隊之前,SAP 還曾幫助 NBA 球隊及賽車手提供數據,為球員或賽車手制定出最適合的投球位置或最合適的車型。

HANA 平台簡化用戶體驗,創新更快

雖然坐擁龐大的數據金礦,但 SAP 的課題是如何簡化用戶體驗。SAP 是全球企業軟體龍頭,為首度提供企業資源規劃(ERP)的領導廠商,但隨著企業所儲存的資料不斷累積,系統也越來越笨重。據統計,全球只有 7% 的資料被標籤化(歸檔),更只有 1% 的資料被有效分析。企業所需的 IT 創新預算也被維持資料存儲的成本壓縮,一般企業將三分之二的 IT 預算用於維持現有資料,剩下的三分之一才用於創新。
紀秉盟指出,SAP 透過 HANA 平台優化使用者經驗,並簡化企業使用資料的流程。在使用 HANA 平台後,企業的資料傳輸速度平均提升 86%、資料儲存規模從平均 7.1 TB 降至 1.8 TB 等。另外,SAP 也基於 HANA 平台發展 SAP Cloud,用單一即時業務平台運行所有 SAP 應用軟體,並管理海量的大數據。紀秉盟說:「在這個開放系統中,上千合作夥伴與新創者將能帶來更多創新能量。」

Design Thinking 量身打造平台,創新更多

因為看到創新的重要,SAP 也拋開以往只為企業客戶提供單一軟體服務的模式,用「Design Thinking」概念針對客戶打造最適合的平台。SAP 中國創新業務專家于嶸指出,以往 SAP 是軟體供應商,但現在轉型為客戶的合作夥伴。SAP 四年前先從美國開啟「Design Thinking」模式,兩年半前進軍大中華區。
以中國某老牌零售商為例,因受到線上購物風潮衝擊找上 SAP,SAP 和該品牌舉行為期兩天的 Workshop,找到適合品牌客戶的服務模式,包括用 App 記錄消費者的購物紀錄,App 並根據家居情境提供產品資訊或購買連結等。例如用戶刷牙洗臉時可點開 App 的「浴室」區,會有上次在該超市購買的洗面乳資訊,以免太久沒用過期,還能拍攝每日照片記錄膚色變化,借此得知產品功效。
SAP 看準雲端、移動、大數據時代的來臨,儘管步入中年(42 歲),仍能從原本的 ERP 領域,將服務拓展至 CRM(客戶關係管理)、財務管理和商業分析,助面臨經營困境的企業客戶產生新的附加價值。 



這是我2014唯一的一場,當然要記一下。根據大數據的預測,當然。不過那一秒的動作,是電腦沒辦法的。

A beautifully taken extra time goal by Mario Götze helped Germany win...
THEGUARDIAN.COM|由 DANIEL TAYLOR 上傳
266

Big data 告訴你 2014 年世界盃冠軍是德國

作者  | 發布日期 2014 年 07 月 10 日 分類 Big Data
2014 年世界盃只剩最後兩場比賽,冠軍將在德國和阿根廷之間産生,兩支决賽隊伍産生之後,微軟Bing(Cortana)、百度兩個 big data 平台就立即給出了預測結果,三者就結果完全一致,德國隊就成爲最後的贏家,獲勝的機率約 58%。
在本届世界盃四强生産之後,微軟就已經開始大肆宣傳 Cortana 堪稱章魚保羅,連續 14 場準確預測賽果,也就是說 Cortana 猜對了所有淘汰賽階段的比賽結果,小組賽階段的預測準確率爲 56.25%,微軟採用的是一家博彩公司提供的數據,借由自家的 big data 分析系統得出預測結果,Bing 給出的决賽結果是德國獲勝的機率爲 58.1%,阿根廷獲勝的機率爲 41.9%。
百度大數據從上一届世界盃就推出了 big data 預測平臺,2014 年世界盃的預測命中率極高,小組賽階段預測準確率爲 58.33%,所有淘汰賽階段比賽結果全部預測準確,7 月 10 發表最新冠軍預測數據顯示,德國在决賽中獲勝的機率爲 58.6%、阿根廷爲 41.4%。相比 Bing 的單一數據來源,百度採用的模式更爲合理,加入了過去 5 年全球 987 支足球隊的比賽結果,469 家歐洲博彩公司賠率數、百度搜索數據、球員訊息等。


265

特汽車(Ford Motor Co.)表示,將召回10.1萬輛汽車以修復多種安全缺陷。今年越來越多的汽車廠商因安全問題發起召回,福特成為最新的一家。

福特在北美召回9.2萬輛福特轎車和運動型多功能車。這些車的右半軸安裝不當可能引發問題。福特稱右半軸可能移位,導致車輛意外移動。

這一召回包括2013-2014款福特金牛座(Ford Taurus)、福特Flex、林肯MSK和MKT,以及2012-2014款福特銳界(Ford Edge) 和2014款林肯MKX運動型多功能車。

福特還召回約2,100輛2014款福特翼虎(Ford Escape),因其全景玻璃天窗存在隱患。福特召回200輛2014款福特Fiesta緊湊型車,以修復油箱洩漏問題。

截至目前,召回車輛並未引發事故或傷亡。


264

通用承認缺陷召回840萬輛汽車

凱迪拉克CTS是通用周一宣布召回的六款車型之一。
Steve Fecht for Cadillac
凱迪拉克CTS是通用周一宣布召回的六款車型之一。
底特律——越深入調查自己旗下種類繁多的汽車產品,通用汽車公司(General Motors)發現的安全問題就越多。
該公司周一宣布,因為一系列缺陷,將再召回840萬輛轎車和卡車。此舉的直接原因似乎在於,該公司為根除安全問題而新萌生出的警覺。
  • 檢視大圖通用今年已經召回了包括Oldsmobile Alero在內的2900多萬輛車。
    General Motors
    通用今年已經召回了包括Oldsmobile Alero在內的2900多萬輛車。
  • 檢視大圖通用周一召回的車型之一別克昂科拉。
    General Motors
    通用周一召回的車型之一別克昂科拉。
  • 檢視大圖加州聖萊安德羅的一家雪佛蘭銷售公司。新宣布的召回車輛包括雪佛蘭的邁銳寶、Monte Carlo和Impala。
    Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
    加州聖萊安德羅的一家雪佛蘭銷售公司。新宣布的召回車輛包括雪佛蘭的邁銳寶、Monte Carlo和Impala。
但在通用汽車通過增加產品調查人員來應對安全缺陷時,急劇增多的新召回車輛,卻可能損害該公司在質量上的聲譽——通用今年在世界範圍內召回的車輛已經超過了2900萬輛。
「我們召回車輛的數量達到了史無前例的水平,人們有理由開始問,何時何地才是頭?」調研公司凱利藍皮書(Kelley Blue Book)的分析師卡爾·布勞爾(Karl Brauer)說。
通用汽車今年2月承認,該公司多年來一直未能解決雪佛蘭(Chevrolet)的Cobalt車型,以及其他小型車上的一個致命缺陷。通用今年的絕大部分召回都發生在那以後
然而,儘管通用汽車眼下幾乎每周都在宣布召回,一個令人不安的現實是,如果不是Cobalt車型引發的危機,該公司或許永遠都不會發現其中的某些缺陷。
周一宣布召回的車輛中,包括820萬輛點火系統有問題的汽車。這種問題可能突然導致車輛失去動力。
從本質上來說,這也是那260萬輛被召回的Cobalt車型和其他車輛存在的問題,這個問題與13人的死亡及54起事故有關。點火開關缺陷還迫使該公司在6月召回了340萬輛中型車和超過50萬輛Camaro車型。
而且這個問題並不僅限於通用的汽車。克萊斯勒(Chrysler)周一宣布,因為擔心點火開關鑰匙可能關閉發動機,將召回2007年到2009年間製造的69.6萬輛運動型多功能車(SUV)和小麵包車。此前,聯邦安全監管人員6月表示,他們正在對所有大型汽車製造商進行檢查,以確定點火開關是否存在問題。
通用汽車首席執行官瑪麗·T·芭拉(Mary T. Barra)表示,周一宣布的召回是「本公司史上最全面的安全檢查」的一部分。
該公司的一名發言人稱,召回沒有任何特定順序,而是一旦發現相關數據,公司就會下令召回。「當確定有問題時,我們就採取了行動,」通用汽車發言人詹姆斯·凱恩(James Cain)說。
Cobalt車型危機,以及通用汽車隨後進行的內部調查,揭露了多年來鬆懈的安全措施。因為在10多年裡坐視最初的點火開關問題,卻沒進行修復,已有15名員工被解僱,監管部門對公司處以3500萬美元(約合2億元人民幣)的罰款,理由是公司未及時上報有關問題。
過去數年間,通用汽車所發佈的召回令與其競爭者相差無幾。但遲遲不修復雪佛蘭Cobalt點火開關問題的現象表明,公司之所以拒絕對此採取行動,是因為它認為這些一直存在的問題,只是會給顧客帶來不便,而不是安全隱患。
雖然巴拉承認自己的公司內部存在失職和疏忽,但她一再否認議員和安全倡議者的說法。後者指責,通用汽車反覆出現蓄意忽視安全問題的情況。
然而,自從Cobalt醜聞曝光以來,公司採取了更加嚴格的檢測程序。其間,公司還任命了新副總裁傑夫·博耶爾(Jeff Boyer)來負責公司內部的所有安全工作。
巴拉說,「為了查出可能對用戶安全造成影響的尚未解決的重大問題,並予以應對,我們展開了積極的工作。」
通用自今年2月第一次因為點火開關問題召回汽車以來,進行了大規模的召回。周一的安全行動只是這種舉動的一個縮影。
周一,通用共宣布了六項召回。其中兩項涉及存在「點火鑰匙意外轉動」問題的820萬輛汽車。通用表示,這些車型發生的事故已造成三人死亡,但目前還不能證明事故與這個缺陷有因果關係。其他相關車型有:1997年至2005年款雪佛蘭邁銳寶(Malibu);1998年至2002年款奧茲莫比爾Intrigue;1999年至2004年款奧茲莫比爾Alero;1999年至2005年款龐蒂克Grand Am;2000年至2005年款雪佛蘭Impala和Monte Carlo;2004年至2008年款龐蒂克Grand Prix;2003年至2014年款凱迪拉克 CTS;2004年至2006年款凱迪拉克SRX。
凱恩表示,公司將會對這些車型的鑰匙進行改造,在底部安裝一個有洞的插片,而不是只有鑰匙的窄槽。經過改造之後,需要更大的力量才能轉動鑰匙,所以鑰匙在受到碰撞時就不會輕易移動。
凱恩說,有些鑰匙可能會被換掉,而不是通過加裝插片來解決問題。通用還會對汽車上插入鑰匙的小環進行調整。
這個解決方案回應了2006年提出的一種修理Cobalt及其他小型轎車的建議。當時得知該問題的通用汽車向經銷商發佈了一項通知,建議他們敦促用戶在鑰匙上加個插片,好把孔變小;共有474名車主採取了這個方法。
如今,通用不會再冒這種風險了。
Bill Vlasic自底特律、Danielle Ivory自紐約報道。
翻譯:陳亦亭、陳柳





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第16屆讀者文摘信譽品牌台灣區得獎名單揭曉中央日報 (2014-06-26 19:48)

在場貴賓舉杯慶祝第16屆讀者文摘信譽品牌頒獎典禮,由左至右為讀者文摘中文版執行編輯張青、讀者文摘亞太區總編輯Ms. Sue Carney、前副總統蕭萬長先生、消基會榮譽董事長李伸一先生以及讀者文摘亞太區廣告部總監Ms. Sheron White。


蘇松濤/整理

 第十六屆讀者文摘信譽品牌頒獎典禮於今(26)日在台北君品酒店隆重舉行,現場特別邀請前副總統蕭萬長先生及消基會榮譽董事長李伸一先生等貴賓,親臨現場頒發「白金獎」及「金獎」各獎項予台灣區獲獎的信譽品牌廠商或企業,對其卓越表現給予最大的肯定及讚許。今年信譽品牌頒獎典禮邁入16周年慶,已成為亞洲區規模最大及最重要的品牌調查之一。

 《讀者文摘》信譽品牌調查自1998年起至今已連續執行16年。本年度調查由全球頂尖的調查研究機構易普索 (Ipsos) 於去年第四季完成。調查透過問卷、電話及網上問卷方式,在亞洲區5個市場內進行,訪問來自台灣、香港、新加坡、菲律賓及馬來西亞總數接近5,000名受訪者,並在廣及四十二項產業的產品與服務類別中詢問其最信賴的品牌,其中台灣地區的有效訪查人數近1,000名。易普索公司並依據可靠可信程度、品質、價值、了解消費者需求、創新、社會責任等六項調查指標,對這些品牌進行評比選出獲獎者。

 根據2014年台灣地區調查顯示,在此六大調查指標中,「可靠可信程度」以平均總分3.78分成為贏得消費者對品牌信賴的最重要指標;居次的重要指標依序為「品質」3.74分、「了解消費者需求」2.81分、「價值」2.79分、「創新」2.72分、「社會責任」2.62分。至於近來台灣食安議題頻傳,也反應在此次的調查中:其中在食品&飲料類,消費者最重視的指標也從2013年的「可靠可信程度」轉變為2014年對「品質」的重視。2013年食品&飲料類的「可靠可信程度」及「品質」指標平均得分分別是4.13、4.12;2014年則是3.99、4.01。2013年「品質」指標與「可靠可信程度」得分相當,2014年「品質」指標得分則勝於「可靠可信程度」,可見消費者對於跟健康攸關的產品實質品質要求高過於與品牌印象連結的「可靠可信程度」指標。

 今年信譽品牌調查強調的主軸是「贏得人心 信諾第一」,跟台灣地區消費者最重視的品牌信賴指標「可靠可信程度」不謀而合。讀者文摘亞太區總編輯Ms. Sue Carney表示,信賴是一種許諾。它不僅奠基於過去品牌歷史及消費經驗,它還是向前看的;也就是說,未來消費者依舊願意信賴並購買此一品牌。而根據讀者文摘的調查,95% 的消費者認為信賴從沒像現在這麼重要過。為此,他們甚至願意付出更多的金額。而在亞洲地區,這些品牌就是2014 年《讀者文摘》信譽品牌。

 其中,又以電信服務類的白金獎得主-中華電信最受矚目,創紀錄連續十度蟬聯《讀者文摘》「信譽品牌」電信服務類最高榮譽白金獎。中華電信為台灣數位匯流的領航者,透過不斷的創新和技術革命,全力佈局4G與數位匯流發展,今年度更成為台灣首家提供4G LTE高速上網服務的電信業者,正式引領台灣進入4G LTE高速行動上網時代,為台灣行動通信及數位匯流產業立下意義非凡的里程碑,不斷創新的精神也為產業寫下品牌典範。

 此外,贏得今年《讀者文摘》最佳新聞/時事電視節目主持人獎項的得獎者為沈春華。《讀者文摘》同時於今年開始舉辦「信譽品牌標章最佳應用獎」,評選出使用信譽品牌標章最具創意的品牌,CHIMEI奇美獲得首獎殊榮、HITACHI台灣日立第二名、BRITA Taiwan 、Dulux得利塗料與SANYO台灣三洋並列第三名。欲知「讀者文摘信譽品牌2014」詳細調查結果,請見七月份讀者文摘雜誌,或連結至讀者文摘信譽品牌網站:www.rdasiatrustedbrands.com

【中央網路報】


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