「華人戴明學院」是戴明哲學的學習共同體 ,致力於淵博型智識系統的研究、推廣和運用。 The purpose of this blog is to advance the ideas and ideals of W. Edwards Deming.

2014年7月3日 星期四

大驚小怪集 1 香港七一遊行人數

 
 
YouTube-2014七一遊行130萬人參與,最準確點算影片
香港10年來最大規模的「七一大遊行」,主辦單位「民陣」保守估計約51萬人上街,香港警方則估約9.8萬人上街,網友希王子以網友wilson拍的1個半小時縮時攝影來精算,就有2萬多人,5個多小時的遊行,保守估計多達130萬人上街頭參加七一大遊行。

希王子以最準確政府審核港鐵標準,1平方公尺6個人來計算,維園足球場長72.25公尺、寬46.5公尺,面積3382.875平方公尺,每次放一足球場的人,就有約20297人,短短1.5小時就放了約385647人,到晚間8點推算,5小時總共128萬多人從維園出發,不包含不能進入維園的額外人數,以及8點至9點半進場的人,保守估計,共有130萬人參與七一大遊行。(任羿馨/綜合報導)
2014.7.3

人數
(李怡)

10,003
■警方宣佈七一遊行在高峯期有98,600人。資料圖片
【小評】
7.1遊行有多少人?民陣說51萬,警方說98,600,港大在行人天橋點算是15.4至17.2萬之間,網民認為即使民陣的51萬還是太保守,現場觀察和周邊朋友鄰居的表現,應有70萬。其實,說靠估已經客氣了,真實情況大概都是憑主觀意志去作一個數字出來。民陣的51萬是要作出比歷史最高的50萬還要多一點的數字。警方所作的就是要控制在10萬之內,例如商品標價9.88元,給人的心理感覺是不到10。港大的點算,也只是在一個固定地點去點,無法點算中途插入或離開的人。
不過,最有趣的還是警方的數字,怎麼會點算到百位數呢?更有心水清的人說,986倒過來不就是689嗎?莫非想出這數字的人是689入腦,又或者他故意作出暗示:986也同689一樣是大話精?
人數當然很重要,但人數反映的人氣更重要。689日前突然以特別嘉賓身份出席一個藝人和青年活動,意外現身的特首不僅沒有帶來驚喜,反而引來逾3,000人的如雷噓聲。此之謂人氣。

2010.10.24
大驚小怪集

貼出的新聞都是我認為作者大驚小怪 =容為一些不足為奇的小事而過分聲張、驚怪。

****時機歹歹 連六季賺錢就該拍手
Ford Posts 6th Quarter of Profit in a Row

Ford starting asking its prospective US customers in the mid 1980s: “Have you driven a Ford lately?” For 13 consecutive years, their answer was increasingly likely to be “no” as it lost market share. Fast forward to today when Ford again trounced earnings expectations, the most profitable third quarter in the company’s 107-year history while gaining two points of share since 2008. 从上世纪80年代中期开始,福特(Ford)就开始问其潜在美国客户:“你最近开过福 特汽车吗?”连续13年来,随着公司市场份额逐年下降,客户的回答越来越倾向于“没有”。快进至今天,福特再次击败了业绩预期,实现了公司107年历史上 利润最高的第三季度收益,同时市场份额自2008年以来增长了两个百分点。
The more commanding “Ford. Drive One” marked the nadir. Of course a company’s success has little to do with slogans and much with management. Perception affects reality though. Investors and customers really believe that Ford is a much better company than it was a few years ago and that has created a virtuous cycle. “福特,开吧”这句更具命令性的口号标志着福特已经走过了谷底。当然,一家公司的成功与口号没有多大关系,而是与管理关系重大。不过,印象影响现实。投资者和客户确实相信,福特比前几年好多了,这形成了一个良性循环。
Perhaps the most significant aspect of Ford’s renaissance has been its professed focus on quality and the bottom line. Detroit rivals previously unfamiliar with the phrase “less is more” may attribute Ford’s success to their own turmoil, but Ford is walking the walk, not just talking the talk: restrained rebates, inventory levels and fleet sales confirm it. Ford is putting out a better product and convincing customers to pay accordingly. 福特复兴最重要的一面,或许是其宣称的对质量和利润的关注。以前不熟悉“少就是多” (less is more)这个短语的底特律竞争对手们,也许会将福特的成功归因于他们自身的混乱,但福特说到做到,而不只是光说不练:低折扣、库存水平和大宗销售证实了 这一点。福特正在生产出更好的产品,并说服客户支付相应的价格。
It has been so successful at generating cash that it expects net debt in the automotive division to reach zero by December, a shift of nearly $9bn in one year and well ahead of schedule. Though not yet investment grade, its debt nearly trades as such and its shares are up 90 per cent over one year, greatly enhancing financial flexibility. The fact that its balance sheet was not cleansed in bankruptcy like General Motors and Chrysler was seen by some just a year ago as a competitive weakness. That gap is closing rapidly, insulating it in the event of another recession. Though it resonated less with customers, Ford is best-described by its previous slogan: “Built for the road ahead.” 福特在产生现金流方面大获成功。该公司预计,到今年12月,其汽车部门的净债务将归零 ——一年内减少近90亿美元,较计划大大提前。尽管还未达到投资级别,但福特的债务几乎就是按照投资级别进行交易的,而且股价在一年内上涨了90%,极大 地提高了财务灵活性。就在一年前,有人认为,福特的资产负债表没有像通用(General Motors)和克莱斯勒(Chrysler)那样在破产中经过一番清理,这是一项竞争劣势。但差距正在迅速缩小,这样如果再发生衰退,福特也能免受影 响。尽管福特还没有引起太多客户的共鸣,但对福特最好的写照就是该公司以前的口号:“开拓未来之路”。

Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评,对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析

译者/君悦

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"Ford. Drive One." A Slogan For The Times

Posted by: David Kiley on March 18, 2008
2007_Ford_Fusion_ext_1.jpg

Ford is reportedly readying a new ad campaign for its struggling North American business under the theme: “Ford. Drive One.”
The campaign, developed under the guidance of Ford’s new chief marketer James Farley, and created by WPP ad agency Team Detroit, with the help of other WPP ad shops, will replace “Bold Moves,” which was introduced to bold yawns in 2006.
Ford CEO Alan Mulally has been angling for Ford to have a unified brand message worldwide. But before developing that structure, said one Ford executive, “We have stop the bleeding in North America.”
Before Farley came to Ford from Toyota last Fall, Team Detroit, Arnold Communications and another WPP ad shop had pitched new campaigns to Mulally, but none got greenlighted. Team Detroit’s slogan, thought to be the best of the three efforts, was “Everybody In.”
If “Ford. Drive One” sounds a bit “retailish,” it’s not by accident. Farley has been working closely with dealers to empower them more at the retail level with ad dollars. Dealers, in fact, had a great deal of input into the new campaign. Too, Farley is directing a lot of marketing money previously run nationally to the dealers and sales regions to use more tactically.
The new slogan also seems like a less musical version of “Have You Drive A Ford Lately?, an old line of Ford’s that Mullaly especially likes and has repeated several times in recent months as his preference. Taking that cue, some dealers, in Boston for example, began tagging their ads with the old slogan.
Ford is trying to boost higher consideration of its vehicles, which have been earning increasingly glowing reviews from J.D. Power and Consumer Reports for quality and design. The Ford Fusion, Edge and Lincoln MKX and MKZ, for example, have scored especially well. But Ford is hanging on to its current 16% market share by its finger nails.
I’ll reserve judgment on the new campaign until I see the creative work that goes with what feels like a limp ad slogan to me. Many marketing execs in the auto business downplay the importance of a slogan. I can see why. So many in the auto business, especially in Detroit are so lame that I would downplay them too.
But a good line doesn’t just sell, or boost consideration. It should serve as an anchor of the brand promise for both customers and employees, as well as well as dealers. I’m not sure “Ford. Drive One” does that. Would you eat at a restaurant that advertised: “Bob’s. Eat Here.” Would you be inspired to fly on an airline that pitched: “United: Fly Us.”
That’s all for now. “David Kiley. Read Me.”

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單人開飛機 incapacitated, fly solo

Imagining a Day When Airliners Are Flown Solo
There has been loose discussion in the airline industry about the feasibility of flying passenger jets with a single pilot. Technically, it would be possible. But what happens if the pilot becomes incapacitated?

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殺人機智題 日小學老師惹非議

〔編譯林翠儀/綜合報導〕「三姊妹的大姊自殺,二姊及小妹同時喜歡上出席葬禮的一位男 子,請問二姊要怎麼做,才能再次見到那名男子?」東京都一名小學三年級的23歲女導師,給班上學童出了這道「腦筋急轉彎」,結果惹來家長抗議,因為正確答 案是:「二姊殺了小妹,就能在葬禮上再遇見他」。
這所位於杉並區的區立國小,該名女老師日前在三年級學童的算術課上,出了這道「腦筋急轉 彎」殺人題。老師在說完題目後,還說提示為「葬禮」,結果有名學童回答:「二姊殺了小妹」,老師稱之為正確答案。事隔2天後,該校收到一封記載當日授課情 況的匿名檢舉信,區教委因而針對此事進行調查。
女老師表示,之前上算術課時曾出過其他「腦筋急轉彎」題目,學童反應良好,為提高學生的學習 樂趣,她上完算術課內容後,學生又要求她再出一題,她臨時想到學生時代看過的「腦筋急轉彎」,並未考慮到會嚇到學童,現在已在深切反省中。區教委與女老師 已向學童家長致歉,女老師也被口頭警告。
類似的爭議教學行為,9月底在橫濱也發生過一起,甚至差點鬧出人命。一名50歲的國中男性理科老 師,在教導國一學生「呼吸的重要性」時,用手摀住一名學生口鼻,該名學生被摀住口鼻5秒鐘後,曾舉手向老師示意不舒服,但該名老師竟然沒鬆手,還說「再忍 耐5秒」,結果造成學生驚嚇過度昏厥。

****

熱門話題-星巴克取代政大書城 令人扼腕

2010-10-17中國時報【林泉利/北縣新店(國中教師)】  位於師大夜市的政大書城即將走入歷史。今天最後營業日後,接著二十日至十一月廿七日將做回頭書展。未來,師大夜市地標「政大書城」招牌不再,收起實體店面轉型成網路書店,取而代之的將是一個月四十萬承租的連鎖咖啡店星巴克。相對於政府一直提倡書香社會,顯然賣咖啡比賣書有「錢」途!  政大書城曾經是許多師大學生的回憶,對我們這些曾經在師大進修的老師們更是印象深刻。  對照近年來「師大夜市」的盛名在外,假日數以萬計的遊客與師大師生「消費群」,為什麼業者會選擇「熄燈打烊」?值得大家反思。



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自由時報
大英國協運動會爆性醜聞 選手 3天用4000保險套
〔駐歐洲特派記者胡蕙寧/倫敦報導〕大英國協運動會(Common wealth games)14日閉幕,在這個英國以及其皇家舊領地共同舉辦的運動盛事裡,今年最被媒體曝光的卻是運動性事的「臭」聞。因為國協運動成員不但白天運動, 連晚上都勤勞不停,還因為衛生常識不足將保險套丟進馬桶,造成選手村廁所管路堵塞,讓英國媒體挖苦這個運動會根本就是個「保險套運動大會」!
大英國協運動會每4年舉辦一次,從1930年就舉辦至今,其中除了奧林匹克運動項目之外,英國傳統的草地滾球、7人橄欖球等也都包括在內。這個運動會通常可以有高達53國、超過70支隊伍參加,最多運動員人數可以多達5000多人,算是國際運動盛會之一。
運 動員體力好眾所皆知,但是大英國協運動員顯然連夜裡都有「額外運動事項」,關起門來另有熱鬧進行。在新德里選手村的馬桶維修工,在比賽進行一週後終於忍不 住反守為攻,對於選手們大為抱怨馬桶堵住老修不好提出「新」事證,說修不好不是他們無能,而是用過的保險套根本不應該丟進馬桶裡,這是管路塞住的主要原 因,他們一時之間根本無法將所有堵塞清乾淨。一名維修工說這不是我們的錯,運動員自己才是真正的肇事者!
經調查新德里選手村設有保險套自動 提取機器,提供8000個免費保險套供使用。結果開賽3天而已,就已經有4000個保險套被取走了。大英國協運動會聯合主席麥克.凡奈爾卻對這個事件表示 說,這顯示運動員們都「很負責任」,「因為所有人都知道鼓勵安全性行為是一件非常重要的事」。

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