「華人戴明學院」是戴明哲學的學習共同體 ,致力於淵博型智識系統的研究、推廣和運用。 The purpose of this blog is to advance the ideas and ideals of W. Edwards Deming.

2015年9月4日 星期五

China sees at least one workplace explosion per week on average, says NGO

W. Edwards Deming 著"轉危為安" (台北:經濟新潮,2015)之圖34 (p. 368 的"moving"寫錯),頁367-369 探討類似的問題,可參考。



ENVIRONMENT & HEALTH SINOBEAT
China sees at least one workplace explosion per week on average, says NGO
Hong Kong-based NGO China Labour Bulletin has created a work accident map that recorded and mapped the 38 explosions in the mainland that have taken place so far this year, which averages at about one incident every six days.
The map provides details such as the location, date, description, industry, province, and news links related to the incidents.
work accident map
China Labour Bulletin’s Work Accident Map
The latest accident was an explosion that occurred at the Dongying industrial zone in Shandong province on Monday night, which killed least five people. Last week, there was another chemical blast in Shandong, killing one and injuring nine.
second shandong explosion
Explosion in Shandong. Photo:
The incidents came less than a month after massive chemical explosions in Tianjintook at least 145 lives, raising concerns about the safety of industrial zones in China.
The Tianjin explosion raised questions about the storage of industrial chemicals, after a residential complex 600m away from a warehouse was badly damaged in the blast. Eleven officials and 12 company executives have been arrested as the nation’s highest level of prosecutors stepped in to investigate the cause of the explosions and why chemical warehouses were allowed to be built just a few hundred metres away from homes, contravening a 2001 government regulation to keep homes and chemical storage facilities apart.
Tianjin explosion
Tianjin explosion. Photo: Sina.
The NGO has recorded a total of 346 workplace accidents this year, including 10 explosions at chemical plants and warehouses, six in coal mines and four separate explosions at firework factories. It notes that common causes for accidents are “a lack of maintenance and routine safety precautions, poor training and the disregard of work safety laws and regulations in the push for higher productivity and profit.”

2015年9月1日 星期二

平均數的笑話,"統計數據無知": 中國外貿數字失真....



關於平均數的笑話,實在不少。

2015年8月底,主計總處今天公布最新國富統計,受到土地公告現值持續調高以及股票市場表現優異 影響,國家財富持續增加,至2013年底國富毛額214.84兆元, ...平均每人736萬元.......
這讓我想起網路鄉民的一則笑話:全國人民平均擁有一顆睪丸。

陳介中 如果考慮到男女比(最新統計,全台女性比男性多了956人),再考慮到有些男性因為外力傷害或天生缺陷導致少了一顆睪丸或沒有睪丸,平均每個人應該只有0.999.....顆睪丸,還不到一顆




2013年05月13日 06:31 AM
中國經濟數據可信嗎?


英國《金融時報》中文網撰稿人 陳志龍


全球經濟復蘇艱難的大背景下,中國4月宏觀數據引發了一片質疑。

以進出口數據為例,官方數據顯示4月份進口同比增長16.8%,高於3月份的14.1%。出口同比增長14.7%,高於3月份的10%。這意味著中國4月份出現182億美元的貿易順差。正常情況下,出口大幅增加表明全球需求讓人放心。

但中國出口數據與左鄰右舍相悖,從而引發關註,而進出口數據的黑色幽默今年已不是第一次出現。此前廣東海關一季度的數據顯示,廣東進出口總值2891.6億 美元,扣除匯率因素後同比增長了37.7%。其中,廣東對港貿易達到842.6億美元,增幅高達91.6%,這也是一組明顯的“麻煩數據”。《21世紀經 濟報道》援引廣東外貿系統人士的話說,貿易異常主要源於深圳一季度貿易的異常增長,廣東部分地市進出口是下降的,但深圳口岸前兩個的進出口額同比增長了 61.5%。深圳的異常增長不僅僅推高了廣東省的貿易數據,也明顯拉高了全國的貿易統計。

實際上,外貿數字失真的問題不只在深圳,也不只在 外貿領域。數據造假的“貓膩”已是一個體制性系統性的公開秘密。在一些地方的保稅區內外,進出口企業讓物流公司的貨櫃車通過不停”換牌照”,反復“進出 關”,不停兜圈子,“一日游”游若乾趟,一批貨物可多次報關通關,以此騙取海關退稅單。某媒體記者採訪一家物流公司,老闆一語道破天機:“來咨詢(一日游)的人非常多,都想把貨物拉去保稅區。以前每月有200到300‘票’,每‘票’賺800元錢,最近兩個月每月能接到500‘票’。”

“一日游”源自中國鼓勵出口的外貿政策,為享受出口退稅待遇,不少內地企業將貨物從內地出口到香港,然後再將貨物進口。有了保稅區區內關外的政策優惠,“一日游”就能簡化操作,如此這般,外貿數據水浸過後當然光鮮亮麗,煞是好看。

外 需不振,內需乏力,但許多地方對進出口增長、引進外資層層立“軍令狀”,要當政治任務完成。問題是出口不同於其它,人家沒需求,你白送都沒對象。但考核指 標的重壓下,為完成考核數據,各種鋌而走險、“幫助完成任務”的灰色利益紐帶開始出現。不僅是大貨櫃車拖著空集裝廂在關內關外忙乎不停,騙退稅,順帶完成 進出口任務,一些“專業”境外工商註冊機構也與地方招商局聯手,對內資企業進行“變性”,中資企業默契配合,把資金打到境外註冊新公司。企業有言在先,匯 率風險地方政府買單,為完成引進外資任務,有些地方不惜調劑巨額資金頭寸,成立引資專項基金,實際是就是應對匯率風險的資金池,引資任務完成,地方官員招 商引資獎兌現,皆大歡喜。滑稽戲常演常新,某地引進一家號稱“資產過億港元”的外商,地方先是宴請,再是批地,又是減稅,還準備授予榮譽市民。啼笑皆非的 是,這家假外商用假出口騙取退稅,東窗事發闖下大禍後,“皇帝的新裝”終於敗露,其擁有的不過是一家英屬維爾京群島註冊的“1美元公司”。

中 國的“假外資”迴流、“假進出口”事件頻生,且已公開化、規模化、產業化,其事出有因,主要還是地方政府的政績考核體制。有的地方主官理直氣壯地 說,GDP和招商引資,“既是乾出來的,也是做出來的?”怎麽做,還不是考核體制“逼良為娼”,都知道數據“水得很”,但都睜隻眼閉隻眼,這都為非法活動 的蔓延滋長提供了土壤。

進出口數據失真,特別是習慣性的順差放大,宏觀層面上易授人口舌和把柄,給決策者帶來極大的被動。微觀層面上,灰色交易的“內傷”還在於擾亂內部正常的金融秩序,滋生“貨幣滲漏”和“貨幣暗流”,極易為資本外逃和假外資流入提供便捷的管道,對國家經濟金融安全埋下隱患。

外 貿數據只是統計失真的一扇窗口。製造業PMI、消費物價指數CPI,甚至金融存貸的統計數據有時也是“要多好看有多好看”,要它上它就上,要它下它就下, 立竿見影,但本質都是塗脂抹粉打扮過的。每到季末,銀行要報表好看,“調節存款”,一沖就是幾千億,其中不乏“一日游”,“一夜情”的存款,過了時點就嘩 嘩走,反正報表好看了,獎金兌現了,至於誤導宏觀決策,那大帽子別扣在我頭上。貸款亦然,上面要某項數字,各種“口徑”不停地拆裝重組。特別是不良貸款, 局外人更是霧里看花。齊魯銀行因票據案損失慘重,2010年的年報遲至今年5月才發布;尚德事件發酵兩年,包括國開行在內的多家債權行對所涉不良貸款諱莫 如深,從沒有一家機構坦陳自己所涉不良貸款的數額和風險應對,只到尚德進入破產程序,媒體和公眾才從法院獲知其尚未償還的貸款超過70億。絕大多數債權銀 行都是上市銀行,其對儲戶和投資人知情權的藐視可見一斑。而以交通銀行為代表的多家商業銀行,在上海、無錫等地動輒數百億地深陷鋼貿市場的泥淖,至今亦未 作真實的風險揭示,一筆糊塗賬。

每當經濟增長出現困難時,統計數據失真、層層加碼的現象就會出現。有些簡直就是驢頭不對馬嘴,比如說某些地 方工業用電量和應稅銷售雙雙顯著下降時,工業增加值卻能保持兩位數增長,你是如何做到的?撒了一個謊,要用一百個謊來圓。據說,有的地方為了能把假數據 “圓起來”,還出台政策考核企業用電量,財政再給予補貼。最近公佈的一季度全國31個省(區、市)經濟運行數據,多年存在於GDP數據中的 “1+1>2”的怪圈依然存在,兩組數據相互掐架。中國國家統計局公佈的數據,一季度全國GDP總量為118855億元,而31省區市公佈數據綜合 是123571.1億元,兩者相差4700億元。更難為情的是,中國甚至還出現過對6年前的國民經濟指標進行“必要調整”的鬧劇,“官出數字,數字出 官”,數遂人願,如此橡皮泥式的彈性數據,貽害無窮。

最新數據顯示,中國銀行業的不良貸款在一萬億上下,不良率不到2%,這數字也是“要多 好看有多好看”。但顯然,中國銀行體系的真實風險沒有得到充分暴露。在光伏、鋼貿、造船領域的風險貸款應分別都在千億上下,這些風險資產至今賬面未予承 認,而大量展期延後的地方政府平臺貸款當然也不在其中。前不久,造船業的貸款再出違約經典案例,韓國STX(大連)有總額超過40億元的兩個銀團貸款已經 逾期。當地政府強力介入,要求各大銀行續貸,並下達“封口令”,嚴禁對媒體說三道四,當地政府對記者稱,不能透露有關此事的任何最新進展,而相關貸款銀行 清一色全是上市銀行,其治理結構的不健康、財務不透明已到了何種程度。難怪巴菲特和羅傑斯都先後表態,“我不會買入中國的銀行股,雖然它們很便宜,但我看 不懂他們的報表。”
中國經濟總量超過日本,最近有多位經濟學家對當下的中國和20年前日本泡沫經濟破滅前的鼎盛時期進行比較研究,其間的相 似性無外乎本幣升值的“7年之癢”、以房地產為代表的資產泡沫高漲、高鐵時代和城鎮化,其中還有最重要的一點,是基於亞洲文化的經濟數據失真,有問題不敢 面對,把頭埋在沙子里做駝鳥,百般遮掩,用假數據誤導當局。

日本最負盛名的經濟學家、曾任內閣總理經濟顧問的竹中平藏說,經濟高速增長過程 中,各種問題都被隱藏起來,當經濟增速減緩時,金融資產的質量問題就漸次浮出水面,但不到萬不得已不會主動暴露。現在,中國金融總量很大,面臨相同的問題 就會感到很棘手。過熱發展之後,連銀行行長們自身都無法確定銀行將來會有多少不良債權,這將埋下災難的種子,因此負責任的監管當局要制訂一套評估系統,以 釐清真實的數據。

日本另一位經濟學家小林英夫說,日本的教訓說明,通過失真的數據製造的繁榮和需求總有一天會破滅,這是泡沫經濟產生的原因 之一。20多年後,中國經濟體量已經相當巨大,一旦泡沫破滅,要比當年的日本恐怖得多,意義也將完全不同,那將是一次巨大的海嘯。而知名學者、中歐工商管 理學院教授許小年在最近一次演講中也明確表示,基於對中國統計數據真實性的懷疑,將不再對經濟行為作任何預測。

假數據誤導公眾,誤導決策,害莫大焉。還原數據的真實性,給公眾一個可以信賴的經濟數據,是時候了。各路統計專家,還是應該像北京人那樣,先從一個煎餅的價格波動來還原真實的貨幣購買力和真實的CPI吧。

(註:本文僅代表作者觀點,作者為《新華日報》主任記者)






2011.3.2呂秀蓮前副總統近日多次在公開場合說民意調查的15000人樣本並不足以"代表"
又舉楊秋興縣長之例.....

這些想法背後可能是一般政治人物的"統計學無知"

-----日經

中國統計數據的困惑(上)

2013/03/20
 

      中國已經成為世界第2大經濟體。但對中國的經濟統計數據,世界正投去質疑的目光。虛增GDP以及與實際情況相去甚遠的失業率等疑點正在增加。市場找出了奇怪的統計數據,同時也找到了值得信賴的指標。日經中文網將分兩篇文章介紹相關內容。

    「中國的統計數據基本上都存在可疑之處」,一家日資證券公司駐香港股票分析師如此斷言。

   5.7萬億元GDP是水分?

    其中最為典型的是,截至2月已全部公佈的中國各直轄市、省和自治區2012年的國內生產總值(GDP)。如果將全部31個地方政府的GDP加在一起,約為 57.7萬億元,比中央政府公佈的全國整體GDP高出5.7萬億元。這一「誤差」相當於印度尼西亞1國的GDP。

     「增長必須是實實在在和沒有水分的增長」,中國新領導人習近平在剛剛就任的去年11月就對GDP「注水」問題提出了警告。

    GDP注水並非今日才開始。以2011年實際GDP增長率為例,低於中央政府公佈的全國平均值(9.2%)的地區只有3個。

    中國各地的GDP以2002年為轉捩點,過高現象不斷加劇。中國加入世界貿易組織(WTO)是在2001年。在中國全力奔跑在經濟發展道路上的背景下,日 本第一生命經濟研究所的主任經濟學家西浜徹說:中國「曾將經濟增長作為黨內評價的主要指標」,地方領導人很難戰勝誇大GDP的誘惑。

  失業率與基尼係數的困惑

    與GDP同樣「怪異」的代表性統計數據是失業率。在過去10年裏,儘管發生了雷曼危機和歐洲債務危機,但中國的失業率一直徘徊在4~4.4%,持續低於作為政府目標的4.5~4.7%。

    但是,中國社會科學院統計顯示,2008年城市地區失業率為「9.4%」,而西南財經大學統計2011年失業率為「8.0%」。

     對於中國的經濟統計數據,如今市場相關人士之所以再次投去關注的目光,是因為在預測世界經濟前景時,越來越需要準確把握中國經濟的復甦情況。在這樣的背景下,今年以來中國卻接連出現了存在矛盾的統計數據,這使市場相關人士深受困擾。

     其中之一是中國1月10日發佈的2012年12月貿易數據。出口較去年同月增長14.1%,大幅高於市場預期,但市場卻相繼出現了不同看法。

     瑞銀集團指出中國發佈的對韓國和香港的出口、與韓國和香港發佈的來自中國大陸的進口數據存在出入。日本瑞穗證劵在報告中提到,上述數據還與製造業指數和集裝箱運輸量正在放緩的事實「存在矛盾」。高盛也提出了相同的疑問。

     另一個是顯示貧富差距的基尼係數。基尼係數越接近1,表示貧富差距越大,而0.4則被視為可能導致社會不安定的警戒線。中國政府于1月18日時隔12年 公佈了基尼係數,稱基尼係數在2008年達到0.491的頂峰,2012年則下降至0.474,呈現縮小趨勢,這也遭到了質疑。

     「國家統計局應該獲得奧斯卡最佳編劇獎」,數據公佈的第二天,英國《金融時報》這樣介紹了中國博客的內容。擁有高學歷、但卻只能從事低工資工作、被稱為 「蟻族」的年輕人正在增加,這正在成為社會問題。據西南財經大學于去年底發佈的報告顯示,2010年的基尼係數為「0.61」。而北京師範大學的報告則顯 示,2012年的基尼係數在「0.5以上」,均高於中國政府的統計數據。

    熟悉中國經濟的獨立諮詢公司needs的首席經濟學家肖敏捷說:「希望中國發佈符合世界第2大經濟體這一地位的統計數據……」

   (未完待續)


Hiroshi Tsukakoshi 塚越 寛 ;“Tree-Ring Management”「年輪経営」の真髄


リストラなしの「年輪経営」 単行本 – 2009/2/24


Hiroshi Tsukakoshi, 77 years old, preaches wariness of American management methods, which he says are warped by short-term thinking. He says companies should exist to make their workers happy, and says employees should clean the office toilets to foster a sense of responsibility.



To Whom Do Japan’s Most Powerful Turn for Advice? The Sensei of Seaweed
Ina Food chief, little known abroad, counsels Toyota boss and others on how to manage a company

ENLARGE
Ina Food's Hiroshi Tsukakoshi says companies should exist to make their workers happy. PHOTO: YOKO KUBOTA/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
By
YOKO KUBOTAAug. 31, 2015 9:00 p.m. ET


INA, Japan— Toyota Motor Corp.’s production methods have been studied the world over, inspiring dozens of books about management and manufacturing.

So where does Toyota go when it needs management advice? To this mountain town, where a little company called Ina Food Industry Co. makes a living turning seaweed into a gelatin-like substance called agar.

Seaweed used to make agar

A squishy staple of Japan’s cuisine for four centuries that can be found as a vegetarian substitute for gelatin in the U.S., agar can be pressed into noodles or mixed with beans and sugar to make a sweet confection. For non-Japanese, it takes some getting used to, and so does the management philosophy of Ina Food’s chief executive-guru, who is followed by many of Japan’s most powerful leaders despite his anonymity abroad.

The agar man, Hiroshi Tsukakoshi, 77 years old, preaches wariness of American management methods, which he says are warped by short-term thinking. He says companies should exist to make their workers happy, and says employees should clean the office toilets to foster a sense of responsibility.

Toyota executives and other Japanese economic and business leaders, such as Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda, have been trekking to Ina Food’s headquarters to glean insights on a record of consistency that even mighty Toyota can’t match: At one point, the company recorded 48 consecutive years of profit growth.

“I don’t think the size of the company really matters when it comes to learning about corporate management,” says Toyota boss Akio Toyoda. “I’ve learned so much from Mr. Tsukakoshi and his philosophy that steady growth is essential for any company.”

Mr. Toyoda’s reverence for the agar maker helps explain the stickiness of traditional business values in Japan, where long-term success and social cohesion are often favored over short-term profitability.

Shareholder returns in Japan have trailed levels in the U.S. and other Western markets. Foreign investors, who hold a record level of Japanese shares, are pushing companies to return more profits to investors. They have an ally in Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who wants companies to adopt international norms.

Mr. Tsukakoshi offers a riposte, in a book titled “Tree-Ring Management”—so-called because a tree steadily adds one ring a year, rather than expanding and contracting erratically. “Trees keep growing even when the weather is bad,” Mr. Tsukakoshi writes. “Companies should be like that, too. You have to keep growing little by little, even if the pace is slow.”

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Toyota executives don’t have to clean their own bathrooms, but Mr. Toyoda requires managers to read “Tree-Ring Management.”

Though the car maker is raking in record profits, Mr. Toyoda says he wants to attract long-term investors rather than those who are focused on short-term gains. In July, the company issued a new kind of shares that lock holders into ownership for at least five years. The plan drew opposition from some foreign investors, who collectively hold around a 30% stake in Toyota.

With $140 million in annual sales, privately held Ina Food is only a tiny fraction the size of Toyota, whose revenue tops $200 billion. But it makes roughly 80% of the approximately 2,300 tons of agar and related products that circulate annually in Japan, according to Mr. Tsukakoshi, who says he owes his own longevity to a daily intake of the stuff.

Ina Food’s 24-acre headquarters here is a monument to Mr. Tsukakoshi’s steady-as-it-goes philosophy. The complex houses an agar research and development center, an agar exhibition, an agar factory, two agar shops and two agar restaurants.

On a sunny afternoon in July, tourists were relaxing in the Kanten Papa Garden—named after the company’s best-known brand of kanten, as agar is known in Japanese. Hydrangeas, cared for by Ina Food employees every morning, were blooming, and a monument with a metal plate displayed the corporate motto: “Let’s make a good company.”

“You spend a large part of your life working,” Mr. Tsukakoshi said in an interview. “Isn’t there something wrong if companies are producing unhappy people?”

To maintain harmony among Ina Food’s 500 or so employees, he said, the company will stick to its seniority-based lifetime employment system. Some other Japanese companies—including Toyota, with 344,000 workers globally—have begun experimenting with ways to reward merit, rather than experience, though rung-by-rung ladder-climbing remains the norm.

Mr. Tsukakoshi’s aversion to rapid growth was reinforced by the Great Agar Bubble of 2005. After a television show highlighted the health benefits of agar, which is low in calories and rich in fiber, Ina Food had to operate its factories day and night to keep up with demand. Annual revenue jumped 40%.

Some CEOs might have pocketed their bonuses and rejoiced, but not Mr. Tsukakoshi, who fretted about what would happen next. Sure enough, in 2006, sales plunged.

“What’s most important is not to pursue short-term greed and efficiency,” Mr. Tsukakoshi said.

Other companies may talk about social responsibility, but Ina Food offers free agar at the annual Kanten Papa festival in Ina, served as tokoroten, a clear, cold noodle dish dipped in sauce, or as anmitsu, a dessert with agar-based jelly, sweet red bean sauce and fruits. There’s a Kanten Papa children’s music competition and a Kanten Papa children’s drawing contest. Toyota has a similar contest.

Mr. Toyoda, who is 59, first met the Ina Food chief about five years ago, when Mr. Tsukakoshi gave a speech on long-term growth at a Toyota-related event. His words struck a chord with Mr. Toyoda, who was struggling to turn around the car maker from huge losses that followed a period of rapid expansion.

The two have continued to meet since then. Mr. Toyoda, who says he regularly eats agar, has begun to borrow phrases from Mr. Tsukakoshi’s book in his own speeches.

“We were like a tree whose rings grew too rapidly at one point, and whose trunk became weak and prone to breaking,” Mr. Toyoda said at an earnings announcement last year. “To grow sustainably means to build a ring around the tree trunk each year.”

Write to Yoko Kubota at yoko.kubota@wsj.com

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