「華人戴明學院」是戴明哲學的學習共同體 ,致力於淵博型智識系統的研究、推廣和運用。 The purpose of this blog is to advance the ideas and ideals of W. Edwards Deming.

2020年9月11日 星期五

"新經濟領域" (歐洲股市):科技、軟體、半導體、電信、媒體、零售、醫療保健與製藥

 

相較於以往而言,歐洲股市看起來與科技股權重較大的納斯達克指數更像了。但表面現象可能具有欺騙性。


投資者正密切關注是否會出現一種完形轉換(Gestalt switch)。根據美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch) 8月份對基金經理的調查,投資者當時已在質疑為數不多的科技巨頭還能帶領美國股市上漲多久,並已開始將持倉轉向海外標的,尋找下一批表現出色的個股。

歐洲斯托克600指數今年以來已累計下跌12%,而標普500指數累計上漲3%。其原因在於,歐洲市場上的銀行、汽車和能源公司等“舊經濟”板塊占比較大,在歐洲斯托克600指數中,科技、電信和醫療保健等“新經濟”板塊占比僅30%左右.。而在美國股市上,這一比例超過60%。

但摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的分析師最近在給客戶的一份報告中表示:“實際情況正發生變化。”在歐洲股市上,新經濟領域股票的比重正加速上升。在涵蓋範圍較窄的歐元區斯托克50指數中,科技股現在是最大的類股。對於青睞成長型股票的投資者來說,這可能成為已超買的納斯達克以外的另一個替代選項嗎?

並非如此。首先,這種以新經濟板塊為方向的調整主要源於新冠疫情危機對傳統行業類股市值的嚴重破壞。直到今年1月份,成長型股票在歐洲MSCI明晟指數中的比重多年來一直沒有變化。

歐洲市場前景真正改善的一個信號將是,該地區新經濟類股的表現增強,而非舊經濟類股的表現變差。然而,歐洲科技股2020年以來以及過去十年間的表現都遜於美國科技股

在疫情發生之前,歐洲兩大科技巨擘——企業軟件巨頭SAP SE和半導體設備製造商艾司摩爾公司(ASML Holding NV)——的增長前景就已遠遜於Netflix Inc. (NFLX)和亞馬遜公司(Amazon.com Inc., AMZN)。新冠疫情給網購和線上娛樂消費帶來永久性提振的可能性進一步拉大了這種差距。阿姆斯特丹或許有一些前途光明的初創企業,但美國和中國的大型科技公司還不需要有太多擔心。

相較於估值可能過高的美國巨頭而言,歐洲科技公司總體來看也不便宜:美國和歐洲新經濟公司的市盈率都已經比較高了。

當然,如果投資者繼續拋售矽谷公司股票,或者尋找新冠疫苗的進程出現加速,那麼相對於美國股市而言,歐洲股市剛開始的反彈很可能會持續下去。不過,在這種情境下,推動歐洲股市上漲的將是對舊經濟板塊最終將得以喘口氣的預期,從而在客觀上再次提升舊經濟板塊的相對權重。

從長遠來看,一個地區相對於另一個地區的繁榮程度,在很大程度上取決於該地區關鍵的特長行業的增長潛力。到目前為止,歐洲最近在這方面取得的進展還只是數字層面的海市蜃樓。如果投資者需要為短期內向該地區投入更多資金找一個理由,那就是容易被炒作的歐洲科技類股走勢相對疲軟,而不是因為歐洲科技股出現了任何新的走強勢頭。



2020年9月7日 星期一

Boeing discloses new flaw with 787 jet as problems mount. FAA對"波音夢想飛機"可能長達近10年的質量控制疏漏展開調查




Boeing: The U.S. aviation giant said Tuesday that it expected deliveries of its 787 Dreamliner to be delayed as it and the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration look into quality-control concerns with the wide-body jet. The plane’s relative fuel efficiency has made it popular with All Nippon Airways, United Airlines, Japan Airlines, American Airlines, Etihad Airways, Qatar Airways and Air Canada.









The company disclosed a new problem with the manufacturing of its 787 Dreamliner that will put a further crimp in its aircraft deliveries







CNN.COM


Boeing discloses new flaw with 787 jet as problems mount


FAA對波音夢想飛機可能長達近10年的質量控制疏漏展開調查



根據一份政府內部備忘錄和知情人士透露的消息,波音公司旗下一家787夢想飛機工廠的生產問題,已促使航空安全監管機構對其可能長達近10年的質量控制疏漏進行調查。


What is so special about Boeing 787 Dreamliner?


The airplane's unparalleled fuel efficiency and range flexibility enables carriers to profitably open new routes as well as optimize fleet and network performance. And for their passengers, an experience like none other in the air, with more comfort and less fatigue. The Dreamliner effect. That's a better way to fly.





So the only way the board of directors would sign off on the Dreamliner was to spread the risk among a global chain of suppliers. In December 2003, they agreed to take on half of the estimated $10 billion development cost.


The plan backfired as production problems quickly surfaced.


“I saw total chaos. Boeing bit off more than it could chew,” said Larry Caracciolo, an engineer who spent three years managing 787 supplier quality.


First, there were problems with the moulding of the new plastics. Then parts made by different suppliers didn't fit properly. For instance, the nose-and-cockpit section was out of alignment with the rest of the plane, leaving a 0.3-inch gap.


By giving up control of its supply chain, Boeing had lost the ability to oversee each step of production. Problems sometimes weren't discovered until the parts came together at its Everett, Wash., plant.


Fixes weren't easy, and cultures among the suppliers often clashed.


“It seemed like the Italians only worked three days a week. They were always on vacation. And the Japanese, they worked six days a week,” said Jack Al-Kahwati, a former Boeing structural weight engineer.


Even simple conversations between Boeing employees and those from the suppliers working in-house in Everett weren't so simple. Because of government regulations controlling the export of defence-related technology, any talks with international suppliers had to take place in designated conference rooms. Each country had its own, separate space for conversations.


There were also deep fears, especially among veteran Boeing workers, that “we were giving up all of our trade secrets to the Japanese and that they would be our competition in 10 years,” Al-Kahwati said.


As the project fell further behind schedule, pressure mounted. It became increasingly clear that delivery deadlines wouldn't be met.


Each success, no matter how small, was celebrated. The first delivery of a new part or the government certification of an engine would lead to a gathering in one of the engineering building atriums. Banners were hung and commemorative cards – like baseball cards – or coins were handed out.


Those working on the plane brought home a constant stream of trinkets: hats, Frisbees, 787 M&Ms, travel mugs, plane-shaped chocolates, laser pointers and lapel pins. Many of the items can now be found for sale on eBay.


“It kept you going because there was this underlying suspicion that we weren't going to hit these targets that they were setting,” said Matt Henson, who spent five and a half years as an engineer on the project.


The world got its first glimpse of the Dreamliner on July 8, 2007. The date was chosen not because of some production milestone but for public relations value. It was, after all, 7/8/7.


Tom Brokaw served as the master of ceremonies at an event that drew 15,000 people. The crowd was in awe.


It was “beyond experiencing a rock star on stage,” said Dressler, a former Boeing designer. “This thing is so sexy, between the paint job and the lines and the fact that it's here now and you can touch it.”


But like so much of show business, the plane was just a prop. It lacked most flight controls. Parts of the fuselage were temporarily fastened together just for the event. Some savvy observers noted that bolt heads were sticking out from the aircraft's composite skin.


Boeing CEO Jim McNerney told the crowd that the plane would fly within two months.


Instead, the company soon announced the first of what would be many delays. It would be more than two years before the plane's first test flight.


To overcome production problems, Boeing replaced executives and bought several of the suppliers to gain greater control. Work continued at breakneck pace.


“We were competing against time. We were competing against the deadline of delivering the first airplane,” said Roman Sherbak, who spent four years on the project.


Then on a cold, overcast morning in December 2009, it all came together.


A crowd gathered at Paine Field, the airport adjacent to Boeing's factory. The Dreamliner climbed deftly into the sky for a three-hour test flight.


But there were still plenty of glitches, including an onboard fire during a November 2010 test flight. Smoke had entered the cabin from an electronics panel in the rear of the plane. The fleet was grounded for six weeks. This month's safety problems appear unrelated.


Deliveries were pushed back yet again.


Passengers wouldn't first step aboard the plane until Oct. 26, 2011, three and a half years after Boeing first promised.


That first, four-hour journey – from Tokyo to Hong Kong – was more of a party than a flight. Passengers posed for photos as they climbed stairs into the jet. Alcohol flowed freely. Boeing executives were on hand, showing off the plane's new features. Everybody, it seemed, needed to use the bathroom if only to check out the bidet and giant window inside.


More airlines started to fly the plane. Each new route was met with celebration. Travelers shifted itineraries to catch a ride on the new plane.


Boeing had hoped by the end of 2013 to double production of the Dreamliner to 10 planes a month. There are 799 unfilled orders for the plane, which carries a $206.8 million list price, although airlines often negotiate deep discounts.


Then, this month, all the progress came to a jarring halt.


First, a battery ignited on a Japan Airlines 787 shortly after it landed at Boston's Logan International Airport. Passengers had already left the plane, but it took firefighters 40 minutes to put out the blaze.


Problems also popped up on other planes. There were fuel and oil leaks, a cracked cockpit window and a computer glitch that erroneously indicated a brake problem.


Then a 787 flown by Japan's All Nippon Airways made an emergency landing after pilots learned of battery problems and detected a burning smell. Both Japanese airlines grounded their Dreamliner fleets. The FAA, which just days earlier insisted that the plane was safe, did the same for U.S. planes.


Each new aircraft comes with problems. The A380 had its own glitches, including an in-flight engine explosion that damaged fuel and hydraulic lines and the landing flaps. But the unique nature of the 787 worries regulators.


American and Japanese investigators have yet to determine the cause of the problems, and the longer the 787 stays grounded, the more money Boeing must pay airlines in penalties.


“It's been a very expensive process, and it's not going to let up anytime soon,” said Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace analyst with the Teal Group. “At this point, the aircraft still looks very promising. I don't think anybody is talking about cancelling orders but people are nervous about the schedule.”


As investigators try to figure out the cause of the plane's latest problems the world finds itself in a familiar position with the Dreamliner: waiting.

---

製程強調組裝容易: put together quick.
Time-lapse: Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner being assembled and painted

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jiH3-rJ-iYc




這次停9架,請能檢查機體的焊接強度?
Construction of composite fuselage section of a Boeing 787







---















Boeing 787 Dreamliner


Status

In service


Primary users

All Nippon Airways Japan Airlines American Airlines United Airlines


Produced

2007–present


Number built

977 through July 2020




2020年8月27日 星期四

有矯枉過正(over-justification)的可能? 讚美小孩不可過頭 Are You Overpraising Your Child?












人人都各不相同。身為人的管理者必須體察到這些差異,並且善用這些差異,讓每個人的能力與性向得到最佳的發揮。然而,這並非等於將人員排等級。如今產業界、教育界與政府的運作方式,卻是假設每個人都相似。

各人的學習方式不同,學習速度也不同。例如在學習技術時,有些人採用讀的方式,有些人採用聽的方式,有些人採用看圖(靜止或動態的)的方式,還有些人則採用看別人怎麼做的方式。


有內在動機與外在動機,也有矯枉過正(over-justification)的現象。


人類與生俱來有與人交往的需要,有被愛與受尊重的需要。


學習是人類出生就有的自然傾向。學習是創新的源頭之一。人人有享受工作樂趣的權利。良好的管理,有助於培養和維護這些先天的正面特質。



家庭環境可能在幼年時期就戕害了兒童的尊嚴與自重,並進而損及他的內在動機(intrinsic motivation)。而一些管理實務(例如排等級)也會徹底摧毀員工的內在動機。



**


Are You Overpraising Your Child?

All those “Good jobs!” might be undermining kids’ independence and self-confidence.




Credit...João Fazenda



By Paul L. Underwood
Aug. 13, 2020



“I love it!”

It’s a phrase I’ve uttered countless times, typically in response to a new offering from our family’s artist-in-residence, also known as my 6-year-old daughter. I’m being honest — it’s a treat when she dedicates her work to me, rather than the parent with higher approval ratings (her mother, my wife), and I take a fatherly pride in her choice of colors and attention to detail. But it turns out, I’m also undermining her efforts, by putting myself, and my approval, at the center of the conversation.

It seems like the right thing to say. After all, how many times have we parents been told that it’s better to pre-emptively praise (and reward) the behavior we want our children to demonstrate, rather than waiting to condemn them for misbehaving. But, as leading researcher Wendy S. Grolnick, Ph.D., a professor of psychology at Clark University in Worcester, Mass., puts it, praise also has a dark side.

This is because praising the outcome (“It’s beautiful!”) or the person (“You’re so smart!”) encourages the child to focus on those things. She might feel performance anxiety. He might question the conditionality of your love. (“If I’m a smart boy when I do this, I must be a stupid boy when I don’t.”) He might become more motivated by a parent’s pleasure than by the process that led to it. Future crayon masterpieces might become less fun for him to create — or disappear altogether when they’re not as highly praised.

Here’s a guide to praising — or not praising — your child.

Praise the process, not the person.

As part of the self-esteem movement in the 1970s, parents were often told to give their children positive feedback along the lines of “Great job” or “You’re so smart.” This was in contrast to the more removed and discipline-oriented parenting styles of earlier generations, and was intended to be warmer and healthier.

But researchers — notably Carol S. Dweck Ph.D., a professor of psychology at Stanford’s Graduate School of Education — studying the effect of this type of praise in the late ’90s found that it could have a harmful effect. Her research showed that children felt pressured to live up to their parents’ praise, and this in turn could lead to panic and anxiety. Even kids who didn’t experience anxiety became risk-averse, developing what Dr. Dweck later termed a “fixed mind-set.” These children were afraid to challenge themselves out of fear of letting down their parents. Dr. Grolnick said this kind of praise can be considered controlling — undermining a child’s enjoyment of and motivation for certain activities by shifting the goal to pleasing a parent.

Dr. Dweck and others researched what happened when children were praised on their efforts, instead of their selves. It turned out, these children gained confidence and felt empowered to try new things. In one example from her 1998 research, after completing a series of matrices, one group of children was told they were successful because they were smart. A second group was told they were successful because they worked hard. When presented with a new range of puzzles, children in the second group were far likelier to choose a more challenging problem. Dr. Dweck also found that these children said they enjoyed solving problems more than those in the first group, and the researchers concluded they did so because they had confidence in their abilities. She found that even if they failed at first, they were capable of working through the solution by applying themselves, a life skill almost every parent would want for his or her children.


Pay close attention to your child’s process.
Of course, there are only so many times you can say, “You must have worked really hard on that!” To provide meaningful process praise, you have to pay attention to the process itself.

Kyla Haimovitz, Ph.D., a learning engineer at the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative who co-wrote a 2017 paper on the topic with Dr. Dweck, said that praise doesn’t have to be immediate. If your child is working on a drawing, for example, you don’t need to comment on every color selection. Wait until the end, when your child shows you the drawing, and then say something like, “Ooh, I see you chose to put the purple next to the brown — that’s so interesting!”

“You can instead ask them about their process to be able to praise their learning process,” Dr. Haimovitz said. “It also allows the children to evaluate themselves, rather than have an external evaluation.” In other words, your questions will in turn encourage your child to ask him or herself those same questions, sparking curiosity and exploration.

Praise what your child has control over.

We communicate our values through praise, according to Patricia Smiley, Ph.D., a professor of psychological science at Pomona College in Claremont, Calif. One of those values is autonomy, so it’s helpful to praise what your child has control over, such as the choices they made along the way of solving a problem or drawing a picture. This helps keep expectations realistic, she said, and it also encourages them to continue doing the activity. “It goes to the intrinsic interests of the child,” Dr. Smiley said. “A parent says, ‘I see.’ It can make the child feel like, ‘Ooh, what I’m doing is fun, and my parent thinks it’s fun, too.’ They connect a parent’s good feeling with their own good feeling.”


How can we help you lead a better, more fulfilling life at home during the pandemic?


Ask us a question or tell us what’s on your mind.


Jennifer Henderlong Corpus, Ph.D., a professor of psychology at Reed College in Portland, Ore., who runs the Children’s Motivation Project, and Kayla A. Good, a Ph.D. candidate at Stanford University, write in their chapter of the book “Psychological Perspectives on Praise” that this can also increase your child’s enjoyment of praiseworthy behaviors. Saying, “Wow — it looks like you really enjoyed that project!” they write, focuses on your child’s self-determined reasons for engaging in a task. As they note, this kind of praise has been shown to predict enjoyment, engagement and performance at school and even in sports. By contrast, they write, interviews with elementary school students revealed frustration with praise that undermined their sense of agency— for example, crediting innate traits such as being smart, rather than demonstrable choices, like persistence.

Don’t praise by comparison.

It can be tempting to praise a child’s achievement by casually comparing her with others (“Wow, you jumped in the water all by yourself when your friend was too scared!”). Not only does this foster an unnecessary sense of competition, but Dr. Corpus and Good’s research suggests that it doesn’t actually motivate younger children.

Beware of praise inflation.

Inflating praise can lead to what Dr. Corpus and Good termed “praise addiction,” in which a child compulsively performs behaviors to earn approval. There’s another risk, too — one thing most researchers seem to agree on is that children can sense when praise is not genuine.

What’s particularly interesting is how this affects kids with low self-esteem. Parents (and teachers) of such children often try to boost the spirits of these kids by offering lavish praise (“Your drawing is the most beautiful I’ve ever seen!”), but kids with low self-esteem respond poorly to it. This is because this type of praise creates an impossibly high standard, and children quickly lose motivation in the face of that impossibility, according to Dr. Corpus and Good.

Instead, consider simply describing what you observed your child doing, along with a neutral expression of delight: “Wow! You dug a big hole in the sandbox with your truck!” This reinforces the behavior (and communicates that you’re paying attention) without setting an unrealistic standard.

Rather than praise, offer descriptive feedback.

In their parenting book, “How to Talk So Kids Will Listen & Listen So Kids Will Talk,” Adele Faber and Elaine Mazlish introduced the concept of descriptive feedback in 1980 (the book was updated in 2012). Your child might do something praiseworthy, but rather than compliment it — which can turn an achievement into something done for your approval — merely describe the action you saw. This in turn might encourage your child to consider and even discuss the thinking that went into their artwork. It’s similar to how asking “How was your day at school?” often invites silence, while saying something like, “I noticed a colorful drawing in your backpack” might invite your daughter to provide you with the artist’s commentary.

I’m lucky. Our daughter might not be tucking any colorful drawings into her backpack these days — in-person school in our hometown is delayed for at least a month, maybe longer — but spending long days at home allows her progress as an artist to proceed apace. Which means more masterpieces for me to praise. I don’t always get it right — “I love it!” is still my immediate, and authentic, response — but I’m working on it. And so is she.

Paul L. Underwood writes frequently on health and culture for national publications. He’s the father to two young children in Austin, Texas.







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