「華人戴明學院」是戴明哲學的學習共同體 ,致力於淵博型智識系統的研究、推廣和運用。 The purpose of this blog is to advance the ideas and ideals of W. Edwards Deming.

2016年2月12日 星期五

重讀《轉危為安》 Out of the Crisis 討論 2009.3

《轉危為安》末章的公路招牌。

陳守國  2016.2.12
高速公路上的電子告示牌一直是我開車的"娛樂",因為它的"戲弄"可以讓我沿途咒罵而忘了打瞌睡。
要上交流道前,它告訴我北上壅塞2公里,想想,忍耐一下就過去了,於是咬牙上了。磨蹭了許久,告示牌又告知再壅塞2公里、接著8公里、再來10公里,續塞5公里⋯,明明連續塞車卅公里,它就是不斷引誘你,讓你捨不得不上、捨不得下高速公路。這是那一門子的道路疏導措施?




《轉危為安》書中講日本鐵路交通系統的準時、可靠性高 「在東京三天,我們基本沒有遇到塞車,我問導遊為什麼?導遊說:在日本週一到週五,一般的人甚至是老闆,都不開私家車上班,全部坐鐵路和地鐵上班,因為時間絕對有保證。在街上跑的基本都是營業用車。」



2009.3.2
《轉危為安》Out of the Crisis 一書,約可以用《明報月刊》的口號:
作者 陣容 強大
內容 博大精深
來形容。換句話說,是本很難得的書。

我們在上一本書,請WWS說它的成書經過。
這回讀Ernest Kurnow 的回憶 指出:
七零年代早期,他在紐約大學即請Deming 博士 寫下, 給普通人看。
此事寫在《轉危為安》  之前版《品質、生產力與競爭地位》 謝辭"之末段。





Deming博士的兩本著作 (1997),中文翻譯和編輯錯誤都相當多,可以改善的地方,  可能都在數百處之譜。
我想。它們出版十二年之後,還值得拿出來討論。
由於Google Books Taiwan 收入此兩書,所以可以利用它們,趁這機會討論 學習一下,這或許更好的方式。

1
第1則
電腦是最笨的。這本書提到的地方有地圖顯示。
不過,因為作者將高雄的拼寫方式與通用的Kaohsiung 不同
所以台灣處沒有亮相。
http://books.google.com.tw/books?id=LA15eDlOPgoC#reviews_anchor

2
《華爾街日報》2009 0302 說 歐盟此次經經濟危機的威脅。上周六拒絕匈牙利提出的對東歐疏困,所以是否能以"一個歐洲"方式團結, 為共同利益努力, 還是未定之天。
The global economic crisis "poses the most significant challenge in decades" to the European Union's "ideals of solidarity and common interest," declares the WSJ.

Deming 博士不用solidarity
" common interest"在 Out of the Crisis 用到一次(勞資之共同利益)
第 148 頁
...Once the superficial, adversarial relationship between managers and workers is eliminated, they are more likely to pull together during difficult times and to defend their common interest in the firm's health. ...

中文參考第159頁

這牽涉到日本成功的密秘
第 100 頁
An eloquent explanation of how the Japanese system is better adapted to greater productivity and to world trade than the American system is explained in the ...

中文參考第110 頁

「survival」的搜尋結果
第 xiii 頁
The reason is that for survival, supervision will be replaced by leadership. I owe this observation to my friend James B. Fitzpatrick of General Motors. ...
第 76 頁
The only number that is permissible for a manager to dangle in front of his people is a plain statement of fact with respect to survival. ...
第 155 頁
Survival of the fittest. Who will survive? Companies that adopt constancy of purpose for quality, productivity, and service, and go about it with ...
第 157 頁
Why is transformation of management necessary for survival? b. Are you creating a critical mass of people to help you to change? c. ...

第 149 頁
We live in an era in which everyone expects to see an ever- rising standard of living.

第 183 頁
Inefficiency in a service organization, just as in manufacturing, raises prices to the consumer and lowers his standard of living. ...

第 297 頁
Chapter 10 STANDARDS and REGULATIONS

The aim of this chapter will be to show that a government regulation, and likewise an industrial standard,1 to be enforced, must have operational meaning. Conformance can be judged only in terms of a test and a criterion (some times many tests and many criteria). The criteria and tests must be in statistical terms to han a meaning. A regulation or standard that is not so expressed will be devoid of meaning. A regulation without meaning can have no legal force.
中文請參考《轉危為安》  頁347.
1. The word standard in this book means a voluntary standard.The voluntary standards program in the United States was launched by Secretary of Commerce Herbert Hoover on 29 October 1921.


This book looks at two of the central issues - quality control and productivity - facing industry (whether manufacturing or service industry) and considers the practical responses that management should take. Dr Deming has had a major role in establishing statistical techniques of quality control, and is widely recognised by the Japanese for his work in helping them achieve their present enviable reputation for high quality goods. The book provides a full account of the author's current thinking on the primacy of improving quality, productivity, and competitive position, and of the key role of management in that achievement. It is not another manual of techniques, however - the emphasis throughout is to provide a better understanding of the causes of the present problems of industry in the United States, Britain, and elsewhere and how these problems can be resolved.

更多詳細資料

Out of the Crisis: Quality, Productivity and Competitive Position作者:William Edwards Deming   Edition: 2, illustrated, revised出版者 Cambridge University Press, 1988ISBN 0521305535, 9780521305532528 頁




http://books.google.com.tw/books?id=LA15eDlOPgoC&printsec=frontcover&dq=out+of+the+crisis+deming&source=gbs_book_other_versions_r&cad=1_1

第 303 頁
There is an American standard that fixes the musical note A in the treble clef at 440 cycles per second, and one that accomplishes uniformity in kitchen ...


「gears」的搜尋結果





It is either meshed like gears, or the figures are adjusted through fear to meet the requirement but nothing more.
--Out of the Crisis, p. 160


第 433-434 頁
Thus, if the p were 1/5000, and if the process were in statistical control, one would have to inspect 80,0000 parts to find 16 defectives. This number would provide the estimate (p^)=1/5000 for the production process, with standard error ^16 = 4 or 25 per cent. The estimate of the fraction defective is thus not highly precise, in spite of the load of the load of inspection of 80,000 parts. And one may ask whether the production process stayed stable during the production of the 80,000 parts.Was it the same process at the end of the 80,000 as it was at the beginning? If not, what will be the meaning of 16 defects? A difficult question.



第 490 頁
I predicted in 1950 that Japanese products would within five years invade the markets of the world, and that the standard of living in Japan would in time rise to equality with the world's most prosperous countries.


《轉危為安》  第七章 服務業的品質與生產力,可以獨立出書。內容也相當充實。
不過,OOTC是不區分服務或製造的,因為他們都有其服務與生產之"淵博知識系統"  通。
我們真的了解服務業嗎?

2009-03-03中國時報【■溫肇東】  近來有許多學者專家建言,要跳脫此次不景氣,企業重新洗牌,產業結構進行調整,勢在必行,並且寄望於新興的服務業可以創造產業典範的移轉與世代交替。但我們真的了解服務業嗎?  台灣的服務業產值一路提升,在二○○五年首次超過七○%,二○○六年更高達七三%。在經濟體中占這麼重要比例的產業,我們仍然籠統地涵蓋,從勞力密集的餐飲、零售服務到知識密集的金融、通信、教育及醫療服務。不像工業歸經濟部,服務業的主管機關跨了商業司、財政部、交通部、教育部、衛生署。如果服務業的發展與創新對台灣的未來很重要,那我們對服務業的概念、統計數字及政策,就應有更精緻的處理。黃仁宇在《萬曆十五年》中指出,沒有數字就沒辦法管理。  除服務業本身內容涵蓋廣闊,在工業裡諸多行業中「服務成分」也不斷地提高。張忠謀要把台積電轉型成「服務導向」,半導體晶圓直接材料與人工在其成本中的比例奇低,研發、軟體、設備、廠房基礎建設的投資「折舊」占較大的比例。相同的,IBM五○%左右的收入來自服務,一五%來自軟體,硬體只占三○%。自己沒有工廠的DELL與Nike還算製造業?宏碁將代工業務轉出成立緯創資通,專營品牌行銷與服務,已被歸類在服務業。  經建會二○○四年「服務業發展綱領及行動方案」中,比較各國服務業占GDP及就業比重的統計,至今仍被廣泛應用。在OECD國家中,我發 現一個有趣現象,德國服務業產值占其GDP七二.五%,而就業人口僅占六五.六%,也就是說產值高於就業人口。反之,英國服務業產值占其GDP的六九%, 而就業人口卻達七四.六%,也就是就業人口的比率高於產值。一樣是先進國家,構成其服務業部門的結構仍有很大的不同,有的可能偏向金融貿易,有的卻可能偏向觀光旅遊。  再看看一樣是四小龍的新加坡與南韓,其數值的對比更加強烈,新加坡和南韓服務業分別達就業人口的七五.一%和七二.一%,卻僅造就了六三%和六二.二%的產值;香港則是以八一.四%的服務業就業人口,創造了高達八七%的服務業產值,一樣凸顯出發展程度相近的亞洲四小龍,其服務業結構也有很大的差異。  台灣比較接近哪一種經濟型態,德國、香港? 還是英國、新加坡、韓國?台灣在二○○四年的工業產值與就業人口分別是三一%與三五.二%,服務業的產值及就業人口則是六七%及五七.三%。我是覺得有必 要進一步去爬梳這些數字的組成,包括產值及就業人口的集計基礎,因為我們整體服務業的產值比起製造業竟是由「相對較少」的人創造出來,而且服務業產值占其 GDP的比例比起服務業就業人口的比例高出了十%。  換句話說,我們服務業的人均生產力高於工業,和一般的印象有些出入。園區的產值在製造業中占了很大的比重,他們的人均產值極高,這是否表示園區外真的養了很多生產力極低的工業人口?反觀,我們的服務業,雖然金融、通訊的銷售服務,甚至外商在台的採購業務,都有比較高的人均產值,但我們金融業和通訊服務業在世界上有競爭力嗎?一般的零售業的附加價值並不高,怎麼會出現服務業人均產值比製造業還要高的現象?  

當我們要靠發展服務業來創造更多就業機會時,可能要能更具體地了解我們想推動的服務業是不是「高附加價值」抑或是「知識密集」,才有可能創造整體經濟的成長。否則就業人口湧進的服務業只會稀釋掉原本人均產值很高的服務業,除非我們的統計數字錯了。(作者為政治大學科技管理研究所教授)
2016.1.29 補註:2015年是溫學長退休前一年,出版4本書,目前手頭的3本,沒收入此篇。
「スイカ」や「イコカ」とクレジットカードがあれば、ネットで東海道・山陽新幹線の座席を予約し、発券せず乗車。2017年夏から始まります。
http://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXLASDZ28HQR_Y6A120C1TI5000
*****
最重要的是:淵博的轉型之哲學和可運作之定義 (New Philosophy and philosophy of science/ operational definitions)。

第 x 頁
Long-term commitment to new learning and new philosophy is required of any management that seeks transformation. The timid and the fainthearted, ...
第 23 頁
Adopt the new philosophy. We are in a new economic age. Western management must awaken to the challenge, must learn their responsibilities, ...
第 26 頁
Adopt the new philosophy. We are in a new economic age, created by Japan. Deadly diseases afflict the style of American management (see Ch. 3). ...
第 45 頁
The same low-inventory philosophy is followed at the contract stamping plants. Coil and strip stock is received several times a week from steel suppliers. ...
第 86 頁
They will agree to carry out the new philosophy. 2. Management in authority will take pride in their adoption of the new philosophy and in their new ...

第 157 頁
Do all levels of your management take part in the new philosophy? e. Can any of them initiate proposals for consideration? Do they? 7. ...
第 200 頁
Adopt the new philosophy. We are in a new economic age. We can no longer live with commonly accepted levels of mistakes, materials not suited to the job, ...
第 245 頁
This venture into improvement of quality and productivity is not a program with a beginning and an end, but a philosophy that directs efforts at all levels ...
第 276 頁
It could even be said that learning in physics, chemistry, and some natural sciences does not teach the philosophy of science. The aim of this chapter is to ...
第 368 頁
很抱歉,此頁的內容受到限制.
第 381 頁
The main reason for choice of this department was that (1) there appeared to be problems there; (2) the supervisor had learned the philosophy of supervision ...
第 489 頁
... the summer of 1950 in Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya, Hakata, given by this author, on the methods and philosophy of Shewhart. Sessions with top management and ...

TNE

「philosophy」的搜尋結果


"......前陣子讀到了聖雄甘地詮釋人類自毀的七大罪狀:「欠缺勞動的財富;欠缺良知的享樂;欠缺品格的知識;欠缺人文的科技;欠缺原則的政治;欠缺道德的商業和欠 缺犧牲的信仰」,簡單幾句話,生動勾勒出一個在「形而上」與「形而下」之間嚴重失衡的現代人類,最終難免變得面目可憎。遺憾的是,如今則變成了標榜科學與 民主的現代文明社會的真實寫照。
在如此失序的深淵裡,我們聽到了各界呼籲肇事者負起責任的聲浪,也警覺到過度膨脹的資本主義帶來的危險與荒涼,但是下台、減稅、賠償、舉債都不是回歸基本 (back to basics)的解決方法。真正失衡的起點,源自教育體系對於建立正確價值觀的漠視與偏差,也對於泛稱哲學的道德標準、精神理想、文化薰陶等等嗤之以鼻; 導致家庭、學校甚至於整個社會教育,只用形而下的經濟力及技術性來評斷高下成敗,形而上的真、善、美反而被貶抑到「不實用」、「變現性低」的範疇,加上學 校與社會都不願觸及政黨與宗教的敏感神經,從此日復一日,間接地將大眾的價值觀真空化,乃至每天聽聞害人者獲得獎勵、貪汙者厚顏狡辯、侵略者自詡正義,卻 都沒有得到應有的制裁與糾正。承接聖雄所點出的人類七罪,這種「欠缺哲學的教育」也可被視為現代文明的第八罪狀。......"( 陳立恆:欠缺哲學的教育)

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