“Real World”/The tricky business of measuring growth

衡量经济的复杂性

The tricky business of measuring growth

英国《金融时报》专栏作家 蒂姆•哈福德

The barrier to change is not too little caring; it is too much complexity,” Bill Gates once opined, and he was right: many problems in development cannot be solved simply by wanting solutions badly enough. And yet when it comes to one of the key development outcomes, economic growth, the problem is not too much complexity, but not enough.	比尔•盖茨(Bill Gates)曾经认为，“阻碍变革的因素并非人类太冷漠，而是世界太复杂”。他说得没错：许多发展中的问题不是你想解决就能解决的。但就经济增长这一关键的发展产物而言，问题倒并不在于太过复杂，而在于还不够复杂。
Complexity plays no obvious role in mainstream economics. Under the surface of traditional accounts of economic growth there is a rather crude model: economies are a bit like loaves of bread. They are made of two or three key ingredients, and bigger loaves simply have a bit more of everything.	复杂性在主流经济学中扮演的角色并不显眼。在经济增长的传统解释背后，隐藏着一个相当简陋的模型：各个经济体在某种程度上就像一块块面包。它们都是由两三种关键原料制成，块大的面包只不过包含了数量更多的原料。
Compare the economy of the UK with the economy of the Democratic Republic of Congo, a country with a similar population, and the textbook will say that the UK simply has more physical capital (factories, buildings, roads) and more human capital (education, training) and perhaps even better “institutions”. Of course, everyone knows that you cannot simply turn the DRC economy into the British economy by doubling the quantities of all the ingredients. The British economy is a different and more complex kind of thing altogether.	如果将英国经济与刚果民主共和国（人口与英国差不多）的经济加以比较，教科书的说法会是，英国 只是拥有更多的实物资本（工厂、大楼和公路）和人力资本（教育和培训），或许还有更好的“制度”。当然，所有人都知道，你不可能只将刚果经济所有要素的数 量翻倍就使其转变为英国经济。英国经济是一种完全不同且更为复杂的经济。
The economist Ricardo Hausmann and the network physicist César Hidalgo have been trying to measure this complexity, and I’ve written before about their work. They argue that economies are collections of “capabilities”, building blocks that can be put together like Lego to produce different products. A trustworthy post office is a building block; so is high-speed internet; so are functional bankruptcy courts; so is a literate workforce; so is a fast lane at customs for processing perishable foodstuffs. It’s not clear how one would go about measuring all of these capabilities. Instead, Hausmann and Hidalgo measure them indirectly, tracking the shadows that they cast upon a country’s trade statistics.	经济学家里卡多•豪斯曼(Ricardo Hausmann)和网络物理学家塞萨尔•伊达尔戈(César Hidalgo)一直试图衡量这种复杂性，以前我已撰文描述过他们的工作。他们认为，经济是各种“能力”的集合体，这些能力就像乐高积木那样，可以被组合 成不同的产物。一个值得信赖的邮局是一个模块；高速互联网是一个模块，正常运转的破产法庭是一个模块，受过教育的劳动大军是一个模块，审验易腐烂食品的海 关快速通道也是一个模块。目前尚不清楚人们会如何着手衡量这种种能力。豪斯曼和伊达尔戈采取了间接方式来衡量它们，即追踪它们在一国贸易统计数据中的体 现。
Their latest work, “The Atlas of Economic Complexity”, includes analysis not just of the general method, but of the “complexity statistics” of 128 countries. Hidalgo and Hausmann show that their generic ranking of economic complexity is much better correlated with gross domestic product than traditional indicators, such as governance or educational standards. The authors seem pleased with this, but it is depressing that they are tempted to engage in such statistical arm-wrestling. Their research is far more interesting than that.	他们的最新著作《经济复杂性图集》(The Atlas of Economic Complexity)不仅包括一般方法分析，还包括对128个国家的“复杂性统计”分析。伊达尔戈和豪斯曼的分析表明，各国经济复杂性与国内生产总值 (GDP)的相关程度，远胜过治理或教育标准等传统指标与GDP的相关程度。两位作者似乎对此感到高兴，但令人沮丧的是，他们总忍不住陷入这类“统计角 力”之中。他们的研究其实比这类角力有趣得多。
If we can measure economic complexity and find it is highly correlated with economic productivity, then the question is: how can economies become more complex, acquiring new capabilities? A couple of points suggest themselves. Modern economies require complex rules: the English version of EU law contains more than 55 million words, equivalent to about 100,000 pages. Some of this is no doubt useless, but I wonder how much. To shape such rules sensibly is no easy task.	如果我们能够衡量经济复杂性，并发现它与经济产出高度相关，那我们面临的问题就是：经济如何才 能变得更复杂、也就是获得新的能力？有两点可以参考。现代经济需要复杂的规则：英文版的欧盟法律条文有逾5500万个单词，相当于10万页左右。其中有些 条文无疑是无用的，但这样的条文又能有多少呢？制定此类复杂的规则显然不是个轻松的活儿。
Think of a business that wants to export cut flowers. That requires appropriate phytosanitary regulations, that fast lane at customs, quick transport links between farm and airport, laws governing irrigation and much else. Getting governments to think about all this is a tall order – especially for a business that simply will not exist until the building blocks themselves do.	假设有家企业希望出口鲜切花。这需要适当的植物检疫法、海关快速通道、从农场到机场的快速交通、灌溉法以及其它许多模块。对企业来说，要让政府对所有这些模块予以考虑实在太难了——尤其是对一家只有在上述种种模块建立之后才能建立起来的企业来说。
The second point is linked to the first: Hidalgo and Hausmann find it is easier to develop new capabilities that have something in common with those you already have.	第二点与第一点有关：伊达尔戈和豪斯曼发现，开发与你既有能力有共同之处的新能力会更容易一些。
And what of those countries whose existing capabilities offer no obvious avenues for development? The complexity approach asks some good questions, but answers must wait.	但对哪些既有能力未提供明显发展途径的国家来说，又当如何？这种关注复杂性的方法提出了一些很好的问题，但答案还有待发掘。
	译者/何黎

此篇是奇怪的 狹義的解釋
Innovating with Rudyard Kipling
Innovation Excellence
Dr. W. Edwards Deming continually referred to the “Real World” while telling attendees in his four-day seminars that they must be living in some other world ...

宣傳方式/Returns of the dragon

《格言集》利希滕貝格

利希滕貝格《格言集》在中國有數家出版社的版本:遼寧教育或譯林


它的妙是古今道理相同
如148頁指出 1789年第8期的墨邱利The London Mercury強調其訂戶的尊貴 (其財產總值為4千萬英鎊) 這正如1990年代初期 The Economist 用Bill Gates 的讚揚當其廣告
Dr. Deming 的學生說他1950年的箱根演講的聽的公司值是日本的3/4.......

Returns of the dragon

Jan 23rd 2012, 13:15 by The Economist online

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This Chinese new year could bring good fortune to stockmarket investors

CHINESE people across the world ushered in their new year on January 23rd, which according to 3,000 year-old Chinese astrology is the year of the dragon. This critter is not a mythical beast. Physignathus cocincinus, to give its Latin name, is associated with power, authority and good fortune. For those looking for good news among the grim January headlines, this could bode well for stockmarket fortunes over the coming year. Between 1900 and 2011, the nine previous dragon years have seen America's Dow Jones Industrial Average price index increase by an average of 7.7% in real terms, the second-best historical record of the 12 zodiac animals. Such fortune may be short-lived however; next year's animal, the snake, has the second-worst historical record.

復習W. Edwards Deming名言Out of the crisis /Fourteen Points and Seven Deadly Diseases of Management

復習名言

As W. Edwards Deming once said, “It is not necessary to change. Survival is not mandatory.” I

W. Edwards Deming "14 Points" express Deming's philosophy of management: specifically, they break down the need for a working understanding of basic quality management system statistical principles. In addition to Deming's 14 points, he also outlined Seven Deadly Diseases, which describe the most serious barriers that management potentially faces within an organization. Outlined below are his Seven Deadly Diseases of Management, as well as an explanation of each.

1. Lack of constancy of purpose to plan product and service that will have a market and keep the company in business, and provide jobs.

As long as the focus is on short term thinking, management will fail to plan adequately. Without good long term planning, worker efforts will be irrelevant: Total Quality Management (TQM) cannot be a fad, as long-term forward progress should always be the ultimate goal for any organization.

2. Emphasis on short-term profits.

Short-term thinking - the opposite of constancy of purpose - in order to stay in business, fed by fear of the push from bankers and owners for dividends. Boosting short-term profits is easier, at it typically involves the cutting of any expense related to the long term: training, quality assurance management, maintenance, etc.

3. Personal review systems, or evaluation of performance, merit rating, annual review, etc. for people in management, the effects of which are devastating.

Management by objective, on a go / no-go basis, without a method for accomplishment of the objective, is the same thing as management by fear. The essential problem with merit systems is that they reward results rather than process improvement—results will almost always have a lot of system luck mixed in. Some managers want to reward people who cooperate more or who seem to have better attitudes, and will insist that they can recognize the people who are most cooperative and have the highest work ethic. Instead, managers should understand that the best way to develop cooperation is by focusing on the nature of work environment, not monetary rewards.

4. Mobility of management: job-hopping

The simplest and yet one of the most deadly of quality systems management diseases, management mobility (or when top management changes organizations every 3-4 years) means continuous improvement efforts will be broken and disjointed as new leaders come on board. With changes in leadership, there is a change in management philosophy. Managers who have an eye on the next promotion want results - now - to gain the next rung on the ladder.

5. Use of visible figures only for management, with little or no consideration of figures that are unknown or unknowable. Some facts are simply unknowable. Knowing this, Deming insisted that leaders must still make decisions and manage a situation. This leads to a basic dilemma—how do you know what would have happened if you had kept on your prior course?

How do you put a dollar value on the customer loyalty won through quality improvement efforts?

You can't, because these numbers are unknowable—and this must be taken into consideration.

6. Excessive medical costs.

For the economy as a whole, health care as a percentage of overall expenditures has steadily risen for decades, which gradually pushes numerous businesses into a state of crisis. Potentially the only remedy for this disease would be a political system attempting to reform health care.

7. Excessive costs of liability.

W. Edwards Deming blamed America's lawyers in part for the problems of American business. The US has more lawyers per capita than any other country in the world, and they spend much of their professional time finding people to sue. Like health care costs in No. 6, Deming believed the remedy to this disease will probably have to come from the government.

Source: W. Edwards Deming's Fourteen Points and Seven Deadly Diseases of Management


Out of the crisis - lessons from British car manufacturing
The Birmingham Post
... were taught by two American statisticians who went there to assist in post-war development of industry Dr. W. Edwards Deming and Dr. Joseph Juran. ...

Out of the crisis - lessons from British car manufacturing

By Dr Steven McCabe on Jan 18, 12 09:53 AM in Automotive

Today's unemployment figures give us all cause for concern and there is certainly little to be currently optimistic about. For those of us who have been around for a while and can remember the 1970s we know that even in the bleakest of times there is always hope of change. The trouble is, there is a great deal to fear. Our economy is 'flat-lining' and the historically low period of phenomenally low interest rates has simply kept things from getting worse. We can only hope that events in Greece do not lead to another spectacular crisis of finance which will impact on all of us and, of course, make recovery even harder.

So, what can realistically be done to create the success our economy desperately needs to achieve an export-led recovery? Surprisingly we can look for inspiration to a sector once written off as displaying all of the characteristics that seemed to epitomise everything that was wrong with British industry. Once again we are back to the 1970s when car manufacturing, or the frequent lack of, regularly made the news headlines.

British car manufacturing has a rich tradition. When I was a child in the 1970s every household in Birmingham knew or was related to someone who worked at factories making components or in the huge assembly plants such as at the Austin plant in Longbridge where my dad worked in the foundry. For many of my class mates working in the car industry was a reasonable, if somewhat unexciting, prospect. Sadly, though, it was not a sector that inspired pride. Indeed, for a great many it generated feelings of contempt at what many saw as the worst of industrial relations. For others it was like witnessing the protracted illness of a once-loved relative. Longbridge was symbolic of just how bad things had become; lack of investment made the factory look archaic and the ability of management and workers to see eye-to-eye was, at best, difficult because of shop stewards whose objective seemed to be anarchy. Longbridge seemed to be a factory that was literally 'out of control'.

As history was to demonstrate, despite the valiant efforts of workers and some management (but certainly not the "Phoenix Four"), it was not possible to ensure that mass car production could continue at Longbridge. Nonetheless, there was a recognition that if you wish to remain successful as a car producer you need to learn what the Japanese had shown was possible; that you can make cars which customers perceive to have 'quality' and will perform to extremely high standards.

Everyone who has studied Japanese production learned that they place great importance on constant innovation and development, obsession with quality control and, crucially, the value of putting people at the heart of the production system. Every student who learns the history of how Japanese car producers achieved pre-eminence will discover the irony that these principles were taught by two American statisticians who went there to assist in post-war development of industry Dr. W. Edwards Deming and Dr. Joseph Juran. The title of this blog is in homage to Deming whose seminal book Out of the Crisis, published in 1982, stressed the need for America industry to learn what he had taught the Japanese thirty five years earlier.

The fact that domestic car sales are declining is no surprise. The current climate makes us fearful of what the immediate future holds. However, other economies are doing much better. The 'BRIC' economies are well known (Brazil, Russia, India and China). More recently there is the emergence of what are referred to as the 'CIVETS' (Columbia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa). These provide opportunities for those manufacturers able to produce goods, such as cars, which are seen to be high value and data shows that this is the case for large volume producers and the luxury marques such as Bentley and Jaguar.

It is notable that all top five car producers in Britain have ownership outside of this country; BMW (who produce the Mini in Cowley), Land Rover, Honda, Nissan and Toyota. Significantly the owners of these companies, as well as the other smaller luxury produces, explicitly recognise that whilst they cannot compete in terms of unit costs, if the product is perceived to be superior by being designed and assembled by highly skilled and committed workers, it is perfectly possible to not just survive the current problems but to prosper.

So what is needed? As an academic based at Birmingham City University I make no apology for stressing the importance of education at every level. The children we are teaching today need the skills and confidence in their ability to be part of quest for innovation and creativity which will be essential in the future. We need our business and political leaders to continuously hammer home the message that our manufacturers can be the best in the world. But manufacturers must be supported in every way possible. If we can spend umpteen billions on a new railway line then we can surely invest in research and development and provide financial incentives to encourage the brightest and best to be part of the manufacturing revolution. This is what will get us out of recession; whatever happens elsewhere.