Times/Siena Poll（《紐約時報》與紐約錫耶納學院合作的民意調查）是美國政界與媒體公認最權威、最嚴謹的民調機構之一。
1. 合作雙方與性質
- 《紐約時報》（The New York Times）：負責新聞解讀、題綱設計與數據公佈。
- 錫耶納學院研究機構（Siena Research Institute）：負責具體的抽樣、電話訪問與統計執行。
- 定位：常被視為美國政治與選戰風向的「黃金標準（Gold Standard）」，在美國總統大選與期中選舉期間備受各界關注。
2. 主要調查與運作方式
- 抽樣方法：透過隨機撥打電話（其中超過90%為手機號碼）進行訪問，並結合選民登記檔案（Voter files）來確保人口特徵與政黨傾向的代表性。 [1]
- 加權調整：將完成的問卷數據與選民檔案進行比對與加權，給予較難接觸到的族群適當權重。 [1]
- 方法更新：該民調會隨著政治環境與選民行為演變調整模型（例如2026年引入了更新的加權變量與支持度評分模型，以改善過去對特定候選人支持度低估的問題）。 [1]
3. 常見範疇
- 大選與期中選舉預測：追蹤總統候選人、參眾議員選戰在全國或關鍵搖擺州的支持率。
您可以透過閱讀《紐約時報》官方說明的 How The Times/Siena Poll Is Conducted 深入了解其完整調查規範。 [1]
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簡記時代周刊( Time Magazine) 中的戴明博士Search Results:
found 7 results
Milestones
Jan. 3, 1994
DIED. W. EDWARDS DEMING, 93, American industrial-efficiency expert and guru of the postwar Japanese economic miracle; in Washington. Deming was a modern illustration of the biblical truth that a prophet is without honor in his own land. Educated in mathematics and physics, he worked with Bell Labs' Walter Shewhart during the 1930s developing quality-control theories that stressed achieving uniform results during production rather than through inspection at the end of the production line. During World War II Deming successfully ; applied his approach to the making of airplane parts. Ignored by postwar American industry, the irascible Deming took his gospel to Japan in 1950, where it was embraced. His ideas finally took root in the U.S. in the 1980s, when the Detroit auto industry asked for his help in competing with the very Japanese firms he had inspired.A Class of Their Own
Oct. 31, 1994 | By Claudia WallisIn an era when business has been shedding layers of middle management and adhering to the late management guru W. Edwards Deming's notion of pushing responsibility down the line to those who know the customer best, it does not take a lot of imagination to see that the nation's public education systems need to do the same.
How Japan Does It
Mar. 30, 1981 | By Christopher Byron. Reported by S. Chang and Edwin M. Reingold/Tokyo
COVER STORY The world's toughest competitor stirs a U.S. trade storm Like a dazed and bleeding prizefighter trying to call time out in the middle of a round, America's automakers have been pleading for months for relief from the pummeling they have been taking from Japan. While sales of American-made cars have been slumping, Japanese-made ...
4966 words | view cover
"I AM NOT IN A TEACHING JOB"
Dec. 25, 1995TIME: You have talked about vision leading to strategy to tactics. Some people who follow your career would suggest the opposite was the way you got where you are today. That it began with tactics and strategy, which led to the vision. Could you, looking back, make a judgment yourself as to whether one leads to the other or whether in fact they are not necessarily sequential?
Gingrich: Well, first of all, I think they are always sequential. I think that if you are rational about it, they are always sequential. And I think that it partly goes back to [management expert] W. Edwards Deming's argument that the key to all management is a theory. And if you do not have a theory of how you cook an egg, then why do you engage in behaviors in the kitchen?
The Green Factor
Oct. 12, 1992 | By EUGENE LINDENGore says the jobs-vs.-environment argument is based on the same flawed logic that caused American businesses to disregard business guru W. Edwards Deming's seminal ideas on quality in past decades. "American manufacturers assumed that market forces had already perfectly balanced quality against cost and that any improvements would hurt the bottom line," says Gore. "Deming took his ideas to the Japanese, who proved that you could simultaneously improve quality and profits and proceeded to steal markets from American companies." Gore argues that Bush is now making the same mistake with pollution. The Japanese, already more energy efficient than the U.S., recognize that excessive pollution is a sign of inefficiency and that reducing pollution can help make industry more competitive. For Gore the real job of a competitiveness council would be to foster similar efforts to develop efficient technologies in the U.S.
Special Report: The Quest For Quality
Nov. 13, 1989 | By Janice Castro
To a great degree, American business has turned to its principal competitor, Japan, to learn how to restore quality. Ironically, what U.S. executives think of as "the Japanese method" was pioneered largely by an American statistician, W. Edwards Deming, 89, who began preaching the quality gospel to receptive Japanese industrialists in 1950. During the 1980s, thousands of U.S. companies borrowed the so-called quality-circle concept, in which teams of employees are encouraged to participate actively in monitoring and improving their part of the production processManufacturing Is in Flower
Mar. 26, 1984 | By John S. DeMottAnd so they did, pointing the way to a revolution in manufacturing. The companies began a $70 billion capital spending program to build better cars and trucks. Detroit equipped itself with elaborate computerized devices to perform hundreds of tasks like precision welding and alignment of doors and fenders. Auto executives consulted with the gurus of manufacturing and quality: W. Edwards Deming, J.M. Juran and Philip B. Crosby, a Florida-based consultant whose 1979 book, Quality Is Free, sits on many Detroit desks (see box).
