「華人戴明學院」是戴明哲學的學習共同體 ,致力於淵博型智識系統的研究、推廣和運用。 The purpose of this blog is to advance the ideas and ideals of W. Edwards Deming.

2013年9月30日 星期一

Dr. William Glasser (1925-2013) “Choice Theory”

 Dr. William Glasser 的書 “Choice Theory” 等我研讀過
他的心理學 “Choice Theory”可能與Dr. Deming的相差很遠  不過可以姑且研究一番........


Dr. William Glasser, World-Renowned Psychiatrist, Has Passed Away

William Glasser International want to announce that the counseling and education worlds mourn the loss of an eminent leader and mentor in their respective fields, Dr. William Glasser, creator of Reality Therapy, Choice Theory Psychology and Glasser Quality Schools.


Dr. William Glasser
Dr. William Glasser
What happened in the past that was painful has a great deal to do with what we are today, but revisiting this painful past can contribute little or nothing to what we need to do now.
(PRWEB) September 05, 2013
Dr. William Glasser, world-renowned psychiatrist, author, and creator of both Reality Therapy and Choice Theory Psychology, has passed away peacefully at the age of 88. Surrounded by his wife Carleen and family members at his home in Los Angeles, Dr. Glasser died on 23rd of August 2013.
Dr. Glasser and his first wife Naomi, who died in 1992, had three children, Joseph, Alice and Martin. In 1995 Dr. Glasser married Carleen Floyd. He has lived all of his professional life in the Los Angeles area of California.
Around the world over, 84,000 people have done basic training in Glasser’s ideas and 12,000 have completed his full certification program through William Glasser International.
Born in Cleveland, Ohio, USA, on 11 May 1925, Dr. Glasser reached international fame in 1965 when his ground-breaking book, Reality Therapy, challenged the traditional approach to psychiatry at the time and ever since. As an increasing number of people wished to learn his methods, he founded the “Institute for Reality Therapy” now called “William Glasser International”. Today his ideas on therapy, education, management and personal well-being are taught throughout the world with international conferences every two years. He wrote a total of 27 books, as well as published many articles.
Later he invited the author of Beyond Prozac, Dr. Terry Lynch, to write the foreword to his own book on the dangers of psychiatric medicine: Warning: Psychiatry Can be Hazardous to Your Mental Health. A biography of Dr. Glasser, Champion of Choice is due to be published in coming months.
Glasser believed that “everyone who needs psychiatric treatment suffers from one basic inadequacy: he is unable to fulfill his essential needs.” He believed that whether a person in mental distress exhibited psychotic behaviors, anxiety or depression, that person was in fact opting for the best possible solution available to him or her for the serious need frustrations in their lives. He believed that, in general, these people do not have anything wrong with their brains or brain chemistry but do need to learn new ways of coping with their situations. They may be a product of the past, but not victims of it because they have control of their present and future.
The Reality Therapy he developed to help people with personal distress operates in the present in a caring relationship offered by the therapist with the main aim being to help the person find and learn new ways of dealing with life. Thanks to the influence of others such as William Powers and W. Edwards Deming, William Glasser developed a new psychological theory he was to call “Choice Theory” and published this in 1998. A core tenet of Choice Theory Psychology is that we cannot control others, only ourselves. Dr. Glasser believed that many of the world’s problems at personal, social and even political levels derive from an often unwitting reliance on what he called “external control psychology,” the belief that we can control other people or that they can control us.
Having started his professional life working with delinquent girls, Dr. Glasser always kept a strong interest in both therapy and education. In 1969, he published Schools Without Failure and went on to develop an approach, the Glasser Quality School model, based on Choice Theory. Schools that adopt these ideas experience changes towards a very high level of academic achievement and a very low incidence of discipline problems. There are currently 23 declared Glasser Quality Schools in the US and five internationally, with thousands of school personnel applying Glasser's ideas in their schools and classrooms in unofficial ways.
Countries where people have trained in Dr. Glasser’s ideas include: Albania, Australia, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzogovina, Brazil, British West Indies, Canada, China, Colombia, Croatia, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Egypt, England, Finland, Germany, Grand Caymen Islands, Hong Kong, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Iran, Israel, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Kenya, Korea, Kuwait, Macedonia, Malaysia, Malta, Mexico, Moldova, Nepal, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Northern Ireland, Norway, Paraguay, Philippines, Poland, Republic of Ireland , Republic of Singapore, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Scotland, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United States of America, Ukraine and the United Arab Emirates.
William Glasser International can be contacted through http://www.wglasserinternational.org.

2013年9月28日 星期六

Selected Articles of Dr. W. Edwards Deming







Dr. Deming published over 170 articles, wrote numerous unpublished papers for his students and clients, and conducted hundreds of studies for clients. These and numerous other writings by Dr. Deming are in the National Archives, The Library of Congress (LOC) in Washington, DC. To access this collection, call the LOC Manuscript Division. Since access to the collection is restricted, please call the LOC at 202-707-5387 to receive an access form.
The W. Edwards Deming Institute® offers a number of these articles as a PDF for immediate access. There is also a very limited hard copy supply of these articles from Dr. Deming’s office. These are original copies and mimeographs he stocked for private distribution. Please contact The Deming Institute by e-mail with a request for the specific article to staff@deming.org and along with donation of $100 USD, The Deming Institute will make arrangements to mail you a copy.
Observations on the 1946 Elections in Greece
> Download PDF
On a method of estimating birth and death rates and extent of registration
> Download PDF
On an important limitation to the use of data from samples
> Download PDF
Sampling in a government statistical system
> Download PDF
A statistical test of significance applied to a sociological problem
> Download PDF
On the distinction between enumerative and analytic surveys > View Synopsis > Download PDF
Statistical techniques and international trade
> Download PDF
Management's responsibility for the use of statistical techniques in industry
> Download PDF
On the presentation of the results of sample surveys as legal evidence
> Download PDF
On a probability mechanism to attain an economic balance between the error of response and the bias of nonresponse
> Download PDF
On the Teaching of Statistical Principles and Techniques to People in Industry > View Synopsis > Download PDF
Die Verantwortung der Betriebsfuhrung fur die Anwendung Statistischer Methoden in der deutschen Industrie
> Download PDF
On the simplifications of sampling design through replication with equal probabilities and without stages
> Download PDF
On the contributions of statistical standards to law and accounting
> Download PDF
On the use of theory > View Synopsis > Download PDF
Standards of probability sampling for legal evidence
> Download PDF
On the problem of matching lists by samples
> Download PDF
Principles of professional statistical practice
> Download PDF
On some new methods and concepts in sampling
> Download PDF
Uncertainties in Statistical Data, and Their Relation to the Design and Management of Statistical Surveys and Experiments > View Synopsis > Download PDF
Some stratified sampling plans in replicated designs > View Synopsis > Download PDF
Design of a replicated sample to measure the change in value of an inventory
> Download PDF
Some statistical principles for efficient design of surveys and experiments
> Download PDF
On the correction of mathematical bias by use of replicated designs
> Download PDF
On some of the contributions of interpenetrating networks of samples
> Download PDF





On the use of sampling in management and research > View Synopsis > Download PDF
Some responsibilities of a statistician
> Download PDF
Some remarks on recent advances in the statistical control of quality in Japan
> Download PDF
Theory of surveys to estimate a roving population
> Download PDF
A review of regression estimators
> Download PDF
Code of professional conduct
> Download PDF
What happened in Japan? > View Synopsis > Download PDF
A Markovian analysis of the life of newspaper subscriptions
> Download PDF
Interaction measurements in psychiatric patients with early total deafness
> Download PDF
Boundaries of statistical inference
> Download PDF
An Efficient Procedure for Audit of Accounts Receivable > View Synopsis > Download PDF
Changes in fertility rates of schizophrenic patients in New York State
> Download PDF
Statistical Control of Quality in Japan > View Synopsis > Download PDF
A further account of the idiots savants
> Download PDF
Some Statistical Logic in the Management of Quality > View Synopsis > Download PDF
On Variances of Estimators of a Total Population Under Several Procedures of Sampling > View Synopsis > Download PDF
Some Points About Standard Error > View Synopsis > Download PDF
Some Theory on the Influence of the Inspector and Environmental Conditions, with an Example > View Synopsis > Download PDF
On Probability As a Basis For Action > View Synopsis > Download PDF
Code of Professional Conduct > View Synopsis > Download PDF
Statistician's Report to Management > View Synopsis > Download PDF
The Logic of Evaluation > View Synopsis > Download PDF
On Some Statistical Aids Toward Economic Production > View Synopsis > Download PDF
On Trends in the Diagnosis of Schizophrenia > View Synopsis > Download PDF
On Some Critical Points in Survey Sampling > View Synopsis > Download PDF
On the Use of Judgment-Samples > View Synopsis > Download PDF
An Essay on Screening, or on Two-phase Sampling, applied to Surveys of a Community > View Synopsis > Download PDF
On a Rational Relationship For Certain Costs of Handling Motor Freight Part I." "Over the Platform > View Synopsis > Download PDF
On a Rational Relationship For Certain Costs of Handling Motor Freight" "Part II. Stop-Time at Pickup and Delivery > View Synopsis > Download PDF
Some Contributions to Statistical Inference and Practice > View Synopsis > Download PDF
On a Problem in Standards of Auditing From the Viewpoint of Statistical Practice Practice > View Synopsis > Download PDF





On the use of sampling in management and research
> Download PDF
Principles of professional statistical practice
> Download PDF
On The Statistician's Contribution to Quality > View Synopsis > Download PDF
Transformation of Western Style of Management > View Synopsis > Download PDF
Some Notes on Management In A Hospital > View Synopsis > Download PDF
Some remarks on recent advances in the statistical control of quality in Japan
> Download PDF
An efficient procedure for audit of accounts receivable
> Download PDF
On statistical techniques in industry as a natural resource
> Download PDF
Some Problems in the Sampling of Bulk Materials
> Download PDF
On the Sampling of Physical Materials 1950
> Download PDF
On Statistical Standards for Legal Evidence
> Download PDF
Some Remarks on Statistical Control of Quality in Japan
> Download PDF
Drastic Changes for Western Management
> Download PDF


2013年9月20日 星期五

品質眾生相(144-148):YOU RETARD /錯字滿天飛/ 安全第一/富士通老年人智能手機/報紙的更正和說明

 品質眾生相(148):

 美飲料龍頭出包 瓶蓋內文「你智障」

住在加拿大亞伯他省艾德蒙頓的洛提絲,日前在商店買了罐美國可口可樂加拿 大分公司所生產的維他命飲料,不料旋開瓶蓋,赫見瓶蓋內竟印有「YOU RETARD(你智障)」字樣,當下令洛提絲怒不可遏,特別是她的11歲女兒還患有自閉症與腦性麻痺。洛提絲住在美國的先生隨後去信向可口可樂公司抗議, 也把瓶蓋照片貼上臉書要討公道。可口可樂公司立刻回應,強調這是他們的一個趣味促銷活動,讓每個瓶蓋內都會有隨機產生的一個英文字配對一個法文字,而法文 的「RETARD」的意思是「遲了或延遲」,不是英文的「智障」,該公司為此向洛提絲一家人道歉,同時也宣布取消這項促銷活動。 (文︰國際新聞中心)

Coca-Cola apologises to family over ‘You Retard’ bottle cap message

Coca-Cola sorry over 'retard' bottle cap
Blake Loates shows a printed bottle cap with the words ‘You Retard’ (Picture: AP /The Canadian Press via Blake Loates)
Drinks company Coca-Cola has apologised to a family who found a ‘You Retard’ message printed inside a bottle cap.
Shocked Blake Loates, from Alberta, Canada, discovered the offensive message after purchasing a bottle of Vitamin Water.
‘We immediately thought, you have got to be kidding me?’ she told the Huffington Post Alberta.
‘We thought it might been a disgruntled employee or someone in a (bottling) plant playing a joke.
Ms Loates took a picture of the bottle cap and sent it to her father, Doug Loates, who then wrote a letter of complaint to the drinks firm.
Coca-Cola apologises to family over 'You Retard' bottle cap message 
Doug Loates wrote a letter of complaint to Coca-Cola (Picture: scribd)
Referring to his daughter Fiona, who has cerebral palsy, Mr Loates wrote: ‘Can you imagine if SHE had opened this bottle???
‘The ‘R’ word is considered a swear word in our family. We don’t use it. We don’t tolerate others using it around us.
‘We ARE over sensitive but you would be too if you had Fiona for a daughter!’
Coca-Cola apologised, blaming it on a competition where random French and English words were printed on their caps. With the r-word meaning ‘late’ or ‘delayed’ in French.
‘We did not mean to offend at all,’ said Shannon Denny, director of brand communications.


品質眾生相(147)

錯字滿天飛 有的比較嚴重點

我剛剛看天下網站有一錯字:"緊"......不再回去找

東電名牌糗出包 安倍變「安部」

日相安倍十九日前往福島核一廠視察, 東電將安倍的防輻射衣名牌打成「安『部』。 (法新社)
〔編譯張沛元/法新社東京二十日電〕負責日本福島核一廠營運的東京電力公司(TEPCO)二十日發布道歉聲明,為日昨首相安倍晉三親赴該廠視察時、將掛在安倍胸前的名牌上的姓氏打錯一事致歉。
安倍十九日前往福島核一廠視察時,曾穿上東電準備的防輻射衣;東電疑似擔心所有人都穿戴上防輻射衣帽後無法辨識身分,因此還製作字體斗大的名牌掛在胸前,其中安倍名牌上寫的赫然是「安『部』晉三 內閣總理大臣」。此一錯誤經隨行媒體拍攝與發布後傳遍全球。
東 電發言人表示,這是打錯字,並誠心就打錯名字向首相道歉。安倍的發音為Abe,若寫成漢字,同樣發音為Abe的姓氏,還有安部、阿部、阿倍與安陪。即便東 電已道歉,但日本網友仍是罵聲不斷。推特帳號為@YuriSakamoto的日網友大罵,東電是不是什麼事都做不好;@PsychoQueen59說,沒 有三思而行的東電把首相的大名拼錯還讓首相穿上,難道還不夠大條嗎? 更有網友酸嘲諷道,東電連這種雞毛蒜皮小事都檢查不出來。

 品質眾生相(146):
 報紙的更正和說明 Corrections and Amplifications
本來是很基本的要求
台灣似乎只有此報落實......難怪它是第一大報:

昨日《蘋果》被發現的錯與批評
你的鞭策是《蘋果日報》成長的動力

2013年09月19日

地方新聞版:《地主濫剷山坡成90度 公所放任》一文標題有誤,「公所」更正為「縣府」,特此更正並向南投縣埔里鎮公所致歉。
9月17日國際娛樂版:《AKB松井珠理奈做體操 定格肚臍挨轟像AV》一文配圖「松井珠理奈」照片誤植,謹此更正。
電話:0809-012-555
傳真:0809-013-666
信箱:news@appledaily.com.tw
地址:114 台北市內湖區行愛路141巷38號



品質眾生相(145)

富士通老年人智能手機打開海外市場


Cristóbal Schmal

東京——在很大程度上,日本的電子行業錯失了智能手機革命帶來的良機。然而今夏,就在日本企業NEC退出智能手機產業時,另一家企業富士通(Fujitsu)卻宣布了新的出口推動計劃。


老齡顧客群體也許只算是一個利基市場,然而,在大多數工業 化國家,他們提供了一個日漸擴大的機會。根據日本統計局(Statistics Bureau of Japan)的數據,在日本,有39%人口將在2050年達到或超過65歲,而在2010年這個比例只有23%。聯合國(United Nations)的數據顯示,在法國,65歲及以上年齡人口的比例,將從2010年的17%,上升到2050年的25%。

儘管未來的老齡人口也許會越來越適應科技的進步,但他們生理上的靈巧度依然可能隨着年齡增長而老化。這就是名為富士通Stylistic S01的Raku-Raku智能手機所要解決的問題。
乍看上去,S01像是個非常普通的智能手機。旨在取悅老年人的功能也很可能會惹惱用戶。比如說,手機觸摸屏上對應呼叫功能「按鍵」在按動時需要比按普通智能手機更用力才行。而且機器會輕微震動一下,才會記錄下按下的數字,通過這種方式,手機能夠避免撥錯號碼。
富士通的另一項技術似乎能在Raku-Raku通話時,在接聽方降低說話人的語速,該技術能去除了詞語之間的間隙,把更多的時間分配給實際發音。該手機的屏幕比普通智能手機的更亮,更便於用戶在陽光直射時閱讀手機上的字。
該手機還具備安全功能,比如,手機上有一個按鍵,用於在緊急情況下給朋友或家人發送短訊息,把機主的GPS坐標告知對方。Orange正在旗下的店面給用戶提供特別培訓,講解如何使用這款手機。富士通老年人智能手機


品質眾生相(144)

這決定表現麥當勞的確是一流的公司,遵守安全第一的要求........
基隆北寧路碧砂漁港附近山坡上的巨石清除作業完成,北寧路前天早上十一點重新開通;附近店家全都忙著重新開業,然而山下最明顯的地標麥當勞,卻還是 沒有營業,原來為了考量麥當勞開設的位置,對於員工和顧客的安危有可能有疑慮,麥當勞決定關閉這個據點不再營業。
麥當勞表示,北寧路上的麥當勞已經營業十五年,做出終止營業的決定他們也相當不捨,但為了顧客和員工在安全上的考量,還是決定不再營業,店內員工將會轉調到其他店家,而目前麥當勞也暫時沒有在基隆市擴點的計畫。

Tim Cook, Jony Ive and Craig Federighi chat with Bloomberg Businessweek


Tim Cook, Jony Ive and Craig Federighi chat with Bloomberg Businessweek

Apple
On the eve of the iPhone 5c and 5s launch, Apple executives Tim Cook, Craig Federighi and Jony Ive sat down for an all-encompassing interview with Bloomberg Businessweek. It's not often that Apple execs sit down for in-depth interviews, but when it happens, it is usually chock-full of interesting information. The Businessweek interview is no different.
One of the many persistent criticisms regarding Apple's iPhone strategy is that the company needs a cheap handset to appeal to more cost-conscious consumers. Cook, however, explained that Apple's business model isn't predicated on churning out low-value devices at cheap price points.
To Cook, the mobile industry doesn't race to the bottom, it splits. One part does indeed go cheap, with commoditized products that compete on little more than price. "There's always a large junk part of the market," he says. "We're not in the junk business." The upper end of the industry justifies its higher prices with greater value. "There's a segment of the market that really wants a product that does a lot for them, and I want to compete like crazy for those customers," he says. "I'm not going to lose sleep over that other market, because it's just not who we are. Fortunately, both of these markets are so big, and there's so many people that care and want a great experience from their phone or their tablet, that Apple can have a really good business."
Later on in the interview, Cook drives the point home, noting that Apple never preoccupied itself with the idea that it had to develop a low-cost phone. "Our primary objective," Cook explained, "is to sell a great phone and provide a great experience, and we figured out a way to do it at a lower cost."
The article also touches on the close collaboration between Ive -- Apple's design guru -- and Federighi -- Apple's senior VP of software engineering. Indeed, one of the predominant mantras heralded by Cook following the ouster of Scott Forstall was that Apple needed to "encourage even more collaboration" between the company's various teams.
With desks that are reportedly just a one-minute walk from one another, Ive and Federighi have worked closely together for quite some time.
What makes that collaboration work is the two men's shared focus on usability and simplicity. Sit down with top executives from, say, Samsung's mobile division, and you'll probably hear a great deal about how much the company listens to the market and can move to address global needs with astonishing alacrity. Ive and Federighi will spend 10 minutes talking about how hard they worked to perfect iOS 7's blurred-background effect. "I think, very often, you can't call out by attribute or name areas of value," says Ive regarding what people look for when using a product. "But I do think that we sense when somebody has cared. And one thing that is incontrovertible is how much we've cared."
With respect to Apple's chief competitor in the smartphone space -- Android -- Cook appears to be unfazed by Android's ever-increasing market share. For Cook, the true metrics that matter are customer satisfaction and actual device usage.
Does a unit of market share matter if it's not being used?" Cook asks. "For us, it matters that people use our products. We really want to enrich people's lives, and you can't enrich somebody's life if the product is in the drawer."
There's a whole lot more to digest in the full article and it's well worth checking out. From Cook's view on Apple's share price to his views on Android fragmentation, the Businessweek interview provides a rare glimpse into the minds who help churn out some of the world's most popular products. You can check out the story in its entirety over here.




〔編譯盧永山/綜合報導〕針對外界批評蘋果新機iPhone 5c售價過高,蘋果執行長庫克反擊稱,蘋果無意製造廉價的iPhone,來與智慧手機市場的「垃圾」競爭。
庫克在接受彭博商業週刊訪問時指出,「市場上有很多垃圾,我們不會進入垃圾事業,我寧願瘋狂地爭取有意購買高價裝置的顧客,滿足他們的需求,因蘋果不是生產低價裝置的企業。」
庫克是在九月十日推出新機iPhone 5c兩天後,同設計總裁艾夫(Jony Ive)與軟體部門主管費德瑞吉(Craig Federighi)接受訪問,暢談蘋果的智慧手機策略和挑戰。
在蘋果推出iPhone 5c前,外界原本預期這款新機售價將較為親民實惠,分析師預估未綁約空機售價將在四○○美元左右,這樣才能刺激中國、印度和巴西等新興市場銷售。
但蘋果將iPhone 5c定義為中價手機,綁約兩年售價九十九美元,未綁約空機售價五四九美元。
庫克表示,「我們從未設定販賣低價手機的目標,我們主要目標是販賣絕佳的手機,提供美妙的體驗,而我們可思考另種方法,用最低的成本來達到這個目標。」
由於售價太貴,加上蘋果未公布iPhone 5c的預購情形,自蘋果公布iPhone 5c以來,股價已重挫五%。iPhone 5s和5c九月廿日起將在美國等全球十一國開賣。

2013年9月14日 星期六

品質眾生相(140- 143):中日4K電視市場/成敗論HTC公司兵敗/義美4員工用過期原料被訴/日本綠茶品質要因

品質眾生相(143):


日本綠茶的顏色以及注熱水後的色澤和除水中氣味......

《茶況》 静岡茶の戦後史を共同調査 

 茶研究者と農家、茶商らが静岡茶の戦後史を報告書などにまとめる静岡茶共同研究会(代表・小二田誠二静岡大教授、会員15人)が8月、発足した。月1回の勉強会と聞き取り、文献調査を1年間続ける。サントリー文化財団の地域文化研究助成を受けた。
 事務局は静岡産業大講師の吉野亜湖さん。研究者と農家、茶商が静岡茶の歴史認識を深め、産地の力を高めるのが狙い。県内で生産が盛んな深蒸し煎茶 をテーマに静岡市内で13日、第1回の勉強会があり、22人が参加。湯飲みに注いだ茶の色の鮮やかさが普及した要因の一つとされるが、注いだ湯の色が品質 評価につながるかを実験した。
吉野さんによると、深蒸し煎茶は東京の水のカルキ臭さに負けない風味のお茶として開発され、消費者ニーズをとらえたことで成功した。勉強会は今後、公開する。希望者は吉野さん=電080(5295)6591=へ。



 品質眾生相( 142):

用過期原料生產小泡芙 義美4員工被訴 【10:52】

新聞圖片
義美公司龍潭廠今年5月驚爆使用過期的原料生產小泡芙。(資料照)
〔本報訊〕義美公司龍潭廠今年5月驚爆使用過期的原料生產小泡芙,桃園地檢署今天依偽造文書罪起訴4名員工。

 桃園地檢署今年5月搜索義美龍潭廠,查扣標示「過期」的原料投料單等,廠方相關人員包括廠長、品管人員、原料單位與生產線至少有4人在被傳訊時,坦承確實使用過期原料。當時報導指出,這批過期原料,已生產144萬盒泡芙。

品質眾生相( 141):

周永明於1997年加入HTC,目前已經在公司掌門10年。他被視為推崇創新和質量的工作狂和設計專家。批評他的人說他冷峻而專橫,而且並沒有意識到,即便產品優秀,也無法彌補銷售、營銷和渠道方面的問題。Mr. Chou, who joined HTC in 1997 and has led the company for a decade, is viewed as a workaholic design guru who worships at the temple of innovation and quality. His critics say he is aloof and autocratic and does not realize that a great product will not fix sales, marketing and distribution problems.

宏達電 HTC 主管 (2) : 兵敗 周永明等 A Long Fall for Taiwan Sm...

品質眾生相(140 )
這一篇牽涉到的主題很多. 不只是品質-定價-附加價值-差異化-國別不同的掛羊頭賣狗肉.....

中國4K電視或帶來價格崩盤

中國4K電視或帶來價格崩盤
4K電視開始出現在賣場。在日本廠家希望以高價格盈利,而在中國廠家則打出廉價戰略,雖然中國4K電視質量不高,但中國目前已經是全球最大市場,其規模效益很容易得以體現,價格崩盤似乎在即……
 分辨率達到全高清4倍的4K電視已經悄然出現在家電銷售櫃臺。這是近年來逐漸喪失活力的日本電視機銷售櫃臺上擺出的為數不多的熱門產品,因此銷售人員也對推銷額外積極。

     據悉,隨著以高單價的4K電視等為主的大屏幕電視銷售比例的增加,日本電視機銷售的平均單價也呈上漲趨勢。但是,在世界上最大的電視機市場中國,當地廠商 等已經掀起了圍繞4K電視的低價格競爭。這對於希望借助高附加值的4K電視重振電視機業務的日本電視機廠商和液晶面板廠商來說,這也許並不是一個喜訊。


在家電量販店,目前配備高精細4K液晶面板的電視被擺放在顯眼位置(位於東京都千代田的必酷相機有樂町店)
    中國50英吋4K電視僅為6100元起

     目前,在東京都內的家電銷售店裏,價格最低的55英吋4K電視售價在30萬日元(約合人民幣1.86萬元)左右。在網店上也有售價在25萬日元左右的4K 電視。在位於東京市中心的「必酷相機」(Bic Camera)有樂町店,非常暢銷的索尼KD—55X9200A售價在45萬日元左右(約合人民幣2.79萬元)。而在櫃臺銷售的普通55英吋電視則僅售 13萬日元左右。可以發現,4K電視和普通電視的價格差距非常明顯。

  日本各廠商也在努力增加4K電視的附加值。例如,索尼的4K電視將配備自主開發的揚聲器。據比酷相機銷售店的人士稱,音響系統往往會成為平板電視的短板, 而索尼通過強化這一方面,推出綜合實力強的型號,促進其銷售的增長。記者在櫃臺對該商品進行了實際觀察,發現除了4K電視特有的精美畫面外,還可以享受到 如同家庭影院音響一樣的具有震撼力的聲音。

     以高品質為賣點維持高價位,這是日本國內廠商4K電視銷售戰略的共同之處。預定於今年10月份在中國推出70英吋4K電視的夏普強調稱,「在滿足強化網絡 連接功能等中國市場特殊需求的同時,將保持與日本國內相同的品質」。夏普期待價格也能與日本保持同一水平,但當地銷售店將如何運作,仍充滿不確定性。

  中國目前已經成長為世界上最大的電視機市場。以海信和TCL等當地廠商為中心,支持4K的50英吋電視的售價僅為10~14萬日元(約合人民幣6189~8665元)。雖然說中國電視機市場增速已經放緩,但與已開發國家市場相比,中國仍然具有很大增長餘地。

     與日本電視廠商相比,中國電視廠商的4K電視銷售戰略有所不同。中國電視機廠商計劃低價銷售4K電視,並將其作為新市場的起爆劑。中國廠商希望通過此戰略,維持巨大銷量。

     據調查公司NPD DisplaySearch預測,2013年,4K電視的全球需求為98萬台。其中62萬台(63%)來自中國。而中國4K電視佔平板電視供貨量的比例為11%,也高於比重為7%的日本,有望達到全球最高水平。

在中國市場上銷量正不斷擴大的低價格4K電視採用的主要是台灣廠商生產的液晶面板。在日本,提到4K電視一般會聯想到大型電視,但台灣大型液晶面板廠商群 創光電目前提供39英吋的4K面板,而今後計劃提供42英吋4K液晶面板。在中國,40英吋4K電視的售價僅在7萬日元(約合人民幣4333元)左右。在 即將到來的10月的國慶節商戰中,預計將有更加廉價的機型投放市場。

     日本廠商不能只是「隔岸觀火」

  似乎是反映了兩個市場的價格差,中國和日本生產的4K電視在品質上的差異也非常明顯。日本廠商的產品採用了將全高清電視畫面提高至4K高精細畫質的圖像處 理技術等。與此相比,中國廠商的廉價產品雖然配備了4K液晶面板,但其他零部件則與全高清電視相同。NPD DisplaySearch副總裁鳥居壽一表示,中國廠商生產的4K電視,其「畫質與全高清相比幾乎沒有提高,廠商只是為了盡可能提高銷售價格而採用了 4K的噱頭」。

  在中國的電視機市場上,當地廠商甚至擊敗了在國際上具有明顯優勢的韓國企業,掌握了市場的主導權。當然,中國廠商的銷售戰略並不能原封不動照搬到重視畫質 和音質的日本以及其他已開發國家市場。但中國目前已經是全球最大市場,其規模效益很容易得以體現。因此,擁有巨大市場的中國廠商的動向不容忽視。

     此外,中國品牌也已開始拓展海外市場,在美國的郵購網站等網絡上,中國新興廠商生產的39英吋4K電視正以699美元的價值銷售。日本廠商希望借助4K電視提高平板電視的價格。但對於日本廠商來說,中國的4K電視低價競爭似乎也不能只是隔岸觀火。

     本文作者為日本經濟新聞(中文版:日經中文網)商品部 佐藤洋輔

2013年9月13日 星期五

比較切身相關的風險評估新單位:(它們能進入"可運作的風險之界定"嗎? )

邁向比較切身相關的風險評估新單位: 從福島核災的數字說起.
這篇只是跟讀者提出近來某些更切身相關的風險評估新單位的嘗試---不過本文缺一整套的風險評估新單位以及專家的討論 所以只能參考一下.
(它們能進入"可運作的風險之界定"嗎? )

Putting Fukushima Into Perspective

Rhetoric has the power to influence how people judge nuclear risk.

    By
  • DAVID ROBERTS
Japan's crippled Fukushima nuclear plant is in the headlines again, littering news columns with radiation data in obscure units such as sieverts and becquerels. Unfortunately these terms tell readers little about how they may be affected, and apparently conflicting messages—sometimes placating, sometimes alarmist—further put the public on edge. There is a better way to communicate.
Journalists, public officials and experts may not realize the influence they have over the public's psyche, but their rhetorical power recalls that of the Latin-literate clergy who interpreted the Bible for the common folk in medieval times. Consider how some have explained the radiation dose of 1 millisievert.
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
Nuclear Regulation Auyhorityu (NRA) Secretary General Shunichi Tanaka (R, w/white helmet) inspects the radioactive water-leaked plumbing with Tokyo Electric Power Co. (Tepco) officials at the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant in Okuma in Fukushima prefecture, northern Japan on April 13, 2013.
In 2011, the New York Times equated this dosage (accurately) to that of the outermost contamination zone around the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster. But one could just as well liken 1 millisievert to one-third of what physicist Richard Muller has called a "Denver dose," or the amount of extra natural background radiation that residents of Denver, Colorado, receive annually as compared to the average U.S. resident. The first comparison generates fear, the second comfort—no trifling matter when the mental impact of such crises can be so damaging.
We can limit the role of such rhetoric by demanding more precise language that quantifies risk on an absolute scale, effectively assigning a risk "temperature." Then average Joes and Janes could compare the riskiness of reported events to other episodes in common experience.
Units such as the "micromort" and "microlife" were created for this purpose. Introduced by Stanford Professor Ronald Howard, the micromort—a one-in-a-million chance of dying—allows one easily to compare the risks of hang-gliding (eight micromorts per jump) and going under general anesthesia (10 micromorts) to that of giving birth (120 micromorts in the United Kingdom). On a typical day, the average person endures about one micromort of risk from non-natural causes.
The micromort's close kin, the recently introduced "microlife"—brainchild of Cambridge statistician David Spiegelhalter, from whom most of these numbers originate—represents a 30-minute period in one's expected lifespan. This unit is especially helpful for discussing longer-term effects. A young adult has roughly a million microlives to expend before expiring, or 48 microlives per day. But factors such as lifestyle choices and, yes, radiation exposure affect how quickly one uses up one's allotment.
Now, instead of comparing 1 millisievert of radiation exposure to Chernobyl or Denver, we can state the risk as a once-off loss of approximately 18 microlives (calculated by conservatively extrapolating from far higher doses for which there is good data). That compares to the effects on a young adult of smoking (20 cigarettes daily costs about 10 microlives a day) or exercising (daily 20-minute sessions add about 2 microlives per day). Living in Fukushima city now, with its elevated radiation levels, costs residents roughly one additional microlife every five days, compared with before the 2011 meltdown. (In Tokyo today, radiation levels are back to pre-meltdown levels.)
Of course, quantifying risk does not remove the underlying uncertainties—I may be overestimating the risk of living in Fukushima city, for example, due to complexities such as extrapolation and radioactive decay. Nor can such risk numbers determine how individuals will or should act.
While the quantification of risk and its uncertainties is scientific, perception of acceptable risk is subject to personal judgment that will vary with life experience and factors such as whether the risk is voluntary or not. However, providing a risk temperature can help express risk in less emotive terms and allow people to draw on personal experience in understanding extraordinary circumstances.
It will take time for the public to develop a good intuition for risk temperature, but it would be good to start now. Then, when the next crisis comes, average citizens may better know how heated the situation really is—and whether it's something to sweat about.
Mr. Roberts, a former academic physicist, was science advisor to the U.S. ambassador to Japan from 2011-12.

2013年9月11日 星期三

品質眾生相(137-139 ): 泰國遮羞二事/中国车在德机会尚不看好/臺大排名的"敏感度"


品質眾生相(139 )
臺大校訊第1146 期

出刊日期民國102年8月21日

2013上海交大世界大學學術排名臺大排名125名
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英國高等教育調查公司QS昨公佈2013/2014世界最佳大學排行榜,麻省理工學院(MIT)蟬聯冠軍,哈佛大學、劍橋大學等則緊追在後。台灣大學仍是國內唯一搶進前百大的大學,但今年全球排名第82名、較去年微幅下降2名,成功大學則大幅提升,從271名進步至247名。
根據QS的大學排名,國內共有6校搶進全球前4百名。其中,清華大學排名第199名、較去年下滑7名,交通大學排名第230名、較去年提高8名,成功大學則一舉從271名進步到247名、進步幅度高達24名,陽明大學與台北醫學大學則分居295名與363名。
台大校方表示,排名相差不大,台大每位​​教師論文平​​均被引用數大幅提高,顯示研究論文品質與學術研究能量仍穩定成長。
(記者陳怡靜)



 品質眾生相(138 )
 如果您去過德國高速公路(不限速至少1990年代初期) 國內的名牌車Mercede Benz 等在他們而言是"國民車".....

中國車在德機會尚不看好

在本次法蘭克福汽車博覽會期間,參展的中國廠商超過120家,是去年的幾乎10倍。但展出產品多是配件和零部件,很難看到整車的影子。
中國在IAA展示沃爾沃
中國車在德機會尚不看好
在本次法蘭克福汽車博覽會期間,參展的中國廠商超過120家,是去年的幾乎10倍。但展出產品多是配件和零部件,很難看到整車的影子。
(德國之聲中文網)"一般對中國不了解的話,就會對中國產品有負面印象。這也包括汽車。在中歐地區,居然找不到有關中國汽車的廣告。一般老百姓不會知道怎樣才能買到中國車。人們可能根本就不會想到要買中國車。"說以上這段話的是上海居民方有賢,他也開車。
的確,中國汽車直到目前為止在中歐地區還完全排不上檔次,比亞迪、吉利、長城、FAW,聽說過以上品牌的德國人更是寥寥無幾。羅蘭貝格管理諮詢公司上海分部汽車專家曼內爾(Andreas Maennel)對媒體說,這一方面源於汽車的形象。品牌形象需要塑造,要把品牌作為非歐洲產品、非德國產品培育出來。"如果缺乏這一形象,在市場上將會遇到很大困難。"
對中國汽車產品形象的持久性致命打擊發生在數年前。當時,中國華晨汽車的BS6轎車在德國做衝撞測試,結果一敗塗地,直到今天,德國消費者對該事件還記憶猶新。曼內爾說,"汽車客戶對汽車的核心要求之一便是它的安全性能。在中國,安全性已被廣泛認知,但各廠商的貫徹程度還十分有限。"
中國汽車也有自己的長項,比如生產成本很低。在價格上將無法取勝中國汽車。因此,迄今為止,中國汽車集中在那些消費者更注重價格的市場,東南亞、非洲以及東歐地區。"一些中國廠商已在東歐開始建廠生產,有些已相當成功,比如在捷克、波蘭、斯洛伐克、羅馬尼亞等地,在這些地區,消費者對汽車的技術要求不像在德國那樣高。"
比亞迪E6 電動車
羅蘭貝格的專家們預測,中國汽車有望在5年後達到每年在歐洲市場銷售17萬輛的水平,其中大部分集中在東歐國家。僅作為比較,去年大眾一家就在歐洲銷售了350萬輛車。他們認為,中國汽車目前就已能在一個領域同西方汽車大國展開技術競爭,即在"電動汽車"領域。曼內爾說,在這個領域,中國同歐洲的汽車廠家相差無幾。"中國政府在今後將重點會更多地放在電動交通上,因為他們看到這裡存在著佔領歐洲市場的機會。"
上海居民徐愛吉開著一輛"中國製造"。但他說,等攢夠了錢,會買一輛大眾。中國汽車在德國車展上銷售的念頭,令他有點吃驚。他認為,花得起這筆錢的公司, 可以到國外參展。但這種做法在當地沒什麼效果。它多半瞄準的還是國內消費市場。他說,"在法蘭克福車展展示並得到不錯的評價,對中國國內市場的心理影響可能更大些。"
作者:ARD 編譯:李魚
責編:洪沙


品質眾生相(137 )
今天他們已依連盟建設將下畫面的THAI 等LOGO 塗黑

泰國航空一架空中巴士8日降落曼谷機場時滑出跑道,造成14人受傷和飛機受損。(網路照片) 
  泰國航空(Thai Airways)表示,一架空中巴士(Airbus)A330-300客機,8日晚間在曼谷降落時滑出跑道,有14名旅客受傷。

  泰航在推特上發文指出,這架從中國大陸廣州起飛、編號TG679的客機,在降落曼谷蘇凡納布機場(Suvarnabhumi)時,輪子的軸距發生了「問題」,受傷旅客已送至醫院。

  意外現場的照片顯示,這架飛機停放在跑道旁的草坪,機鼻朝下,而緊急滑梯則已經充氣膨脹。機場官員說,失事跑道將暫時關閉。泰航則表示,一切運作正常。

  這起事故距離泰航編號TG600的A380客機,8月30日從曼谷飛往香港,準備降落香港赤鱲角機場時遭遇嚴重亂流造成20人受傷的事件,還不到2星期。

泰國官員淡化漏油事故對環境影響

泰國第三大石油洩漏事件殃及旅遊勝地沙湄島,政府急於保護旅遊業形象,副總理甚至在污染最嚴重的海域游泳,以證明其安全性。

2013年9月10日 星期二

品質眾生相 (134-136) :原燒: 沒戴口罩、冷藏櫃、食物處理/Kindle電子閱讀器稱霸日本/ 收據郵寄

 品質眾生相 (136)



其實袁學長幫忙的一件誤會的澄清---學校的捐款收據

73捐款-723捐款.
結果太太的    8月收到一包各單位的印製作人謝函 (我對於學校衮袞諸公的此一作法很不欣賞) 不過我的卻遲未收到…..

我在學校的資料可能: 個人採用永和地址 (十多年前就搬遷) /基金會為台北地址
今年捐款希望用前者  結果收據等早就寄到永和  也有人簽收.
不過上月通常的家族聚餐改在台北 所以我上季都沒回永和
據學校打電話去問. 信已被丟了……所以學校必須重跑流程  補發收據給我

再次謝謝袁學長. 並對造成學校的程序困擾抱歉



品質眾生相 (135)
......
為了奪取市場份額,樂天於今年7月把自家產品的售價降至5480日元。儘管將於今年9月在歐洲和美國推出全新的高端產品Kobo Aura HD,但公司仍將繼續把重點放在當前的基本款上。
不過,亞馬遜的勝利靠的不光是價格,它還給了消費者另一個 青睞Kindle的理由。科技業分析師西田宗千佳(Munechika Nishida)著有《電子書革命的真相》(The Truth About the E-book Revolution)一書,他說,「Kindle在日本成功的原因與在美國一樣。亞馬遜網上書店不僅最容易操作,也最容易搞懂。」
西田宗千佳表示,索尼和樂天的電子閱讀器在技術上並不遜於Kindle,但通過Kindle市場購買電子書所需的步驟更少。而且,樂天和索尼設備的瀏覽與購書環節難度更大。.......Kindle電子閱讀器稱霸 日本



品質眾生相 (134) :
第一反應是"完全遵守總公司的規定"


(優活健康網記者陳承璋/綜合報導)標榜高品質的餐廳也會出包?......一向讓人覺得品質優良的王品集團,旗下打出高級燒肉的原燒,竟被台中市衛生局突襲檢 查,發現廚房內多項衛生條件不佳,限期一周內改善,否則開罰!
沒戴口罩、冷藏櫃、食物處理 全都不及格!
中秋節即將到來,各 家燒烤店的用餐人數將會大增,為確保民眾飲食衛生,台中市衛生局對各間燒肉店進行抽檢,衛生局長黃美娜會同法制局消保官陳柏菁前往崇德路原燒燒肉店抽檢, 發現,廚房人員均未戴上口罩,且熟食與生食未沒有分類,冷藏櫃的溫度,都沒有符合規定的標準,均出現過高的情況。對此,消保官陳柏菁指出,稽查原燒崇德店 廚房時,發現地板潮濕,冰箱內食材未覆蓋,生熟食沒有分類,後備區未定位整理、規定冷藏應在七度C以下,店內冷藏達十度C,冷凍應在負十八度c以下,卻高 達負七度c。

衛生局長黃美娜也指出,生熟食未區隔將造成食物交互感染,溫度不足將造成細菌孳生,市府要求業者一周內限期改善,否則將依照食品衛生管理法,處六萬以上,一千五百萬以下罰鍰。而業者也表示,將會立即改善。


2013年9月6日 星期五

品質眾生相 (128-133) :台灣中央社不了解縣名/ 義美冷凍迷你獅子頭,稽查的陷阱多多/削減壽命周期成本法之一/Google 公司有趣的 M&M 改善專案/修剪


品質眾生相 (133) :

NOWnews - ‎1小時之前‎
中央社今(6)日一篇在16時26分的稿件,內容為苗栗縣政府不排除對三立電視台提告,結果標題下成「不滿報導彰縣要告三立有查證」。(圖/網友提供). 記者林修卉/台北報導 中央社又出包了!中央社今(6)日一篇在16時26分06秒的稿件,內容為苗栗縣政府對三立 ...


 品質眾生相 (132)

這個怪案例不知如何評論

「財團法人台灣優良農產品發展協會」係由原專責於CAS標章整體推廣與宣導的「財團法人CAS優良農產品發展協會」於96年4月更名和改制而成,現任董事長由楊世沛先生擔任,並由沈永銘先生擔任執行長,綜理協會各項業務。

 衛生不符CAS標準 義美自撤標章
【戴 安瑋/台北報導】食品大廠義美食品再傳爭議!農委會表示,義美南坎廠生產的冷凍迷你獅子頭,今年5月及6月被CAS台灣優良農產品發展協會抽驗到含有大腸 桿菌群超標達24倍及2.3倍,義美雖於7月完成改正,但義美仍於8月底向CAS協會申請撤銷CAS認證,CAS協會已同意並於今起正式生效,該冷凍食品 仍可上市銷售,但從今起不能再使用CAS標章。

農委會畜牧處科長程俊龍說,CAS協會今年5月9日赴義美南崁廠抽檢,其生產的冷凍迷你獅 子頭被檢出大腸桿菌群,每公克含有240MPN,超過規定的10MP標準,要求1個月內改善,並於6月公布於CAS協會官網,6月27日CAS協會再次抽 檢到同一產品、同一批號的迷你獅子頭,每公克仍檢出23MPN,再次要求1個月改善,並於7月公布於協會的官網上。

程俊龍指,義美南坎廠 在2次抽檢上都出現大腸桿菌群超標,代表工廠的衛生清潔有缺失,義美雖於7月改善完成,但8月23日義美向CAS協會申請終止CAS認證,協會已同意並於 今天起生效。由於義美申請CAS認證的冷凍食品,有義美迷你獅子頭,所以今起此冷凍食品不能再用CAS標章,但仍可在市面上販售,民眾購買後一定要加熱再 吃。品質眾生相 (131) :

Kawase 先生來訪。我嚇一跳,因為他原說4號才訪台。他說因為月底前就必須回日本,所以8月底提前來。八方雲集的豬頭皮等很合他的胃口。飯後到 秋水堂--我買法學書《不當得利》" Unjust Enrichment --雅博客--我買郭良蕙作品集《遙遠的路》1991 台北:時報) 當代表---4本當中選一。此集初期只有《自序》 ----

".....我不敢斷言它們都能被你喜愛,但是你絕不會認為對你是一種浪費。不論過去,現在,還是未來。"

後來還有王寧《"茫中的知識 悲愴後的光明---讀台灣女作家郭良蕙的小說》以及董保中的《郭良蕙的台北人世界》

他很快就認出她是寫《郭良蕙看文物》的作者,Kawase先生將此書當他的"書"箱""藏書之一。我跟他介紹此人,如果在日本,郭的稿費可能就可以過得很好。

由於Kawase先生今天跟文夏先生通電話,又見四人.。他今年的日文《台灣電影》年刊有多篇訪問稿,我建議他發行漢譯。訪客當中有年長之大家,可作出諸如徐小虎-王季遷的《畫語錄》 (台北:典藏,2013)。

跟他討論瀨健一《臺北文獻日本明星在臺灣的活躍表現─池部良、石原裕次郎、美空雲雀、小林旭、陳宛頻(譯),第 184 期 2013.6  
一 文中的細節。
跟他去公館捷運站搭車,我去領錢。經臺灣大學門前之植栽"台大",他第一次注意到這。可惜此次"大"字修剪整齊,"台"字則修剪一半。他跟我說日本絕對度可能這樣半吊子。談日本公車美而穩定,昔日台灣公車美則美矣,不過過份講求速度,橫衝直撞。現在改善很多。
品質眾生相 (130 ) :
30年前我介紹過某日本公司的廚房人員研究公司用餐時的日本茶的消費行為以利改善
今天讀到Google 公司有趣的 M&M 改善專案--- 找免費的巧克力使用資料再用不同的"呈現"方式
Instead of relying on gut feelings, Internet giant collects hard numbers to learn about its staff’s eating habits.
Google 公司有趣的 M&M 改善專案Instead of relying on gut fee...

 品質眾生相 (129 ) :
    ◇■◇ 利用三菱電機FA產品削減TCO的提議 ◇■◇

  年度銷售額規模突破了700億元,依然以驚人的速度持續發展,這就是中國的FPD產業。“中國國際平板顯示產業高峰論壇(FPD International China)”是為了促進中國國內外的液晶商務、技術交流和全球合作,以及促進中國和世界FPD產業的發展而開辦的,今年迎來了第四屆。本論壇今年也聚集了FPD業界的精英人士,通過信息交換和討論,進行FPD產業的全球性交流,進一步尋求創新機會。

  此次,作為FA業界龍頭企業的三菱電機,將在會議開幕首日進行題為“利用FA產品削減TCO”的演講。在介紹生產現場的潛在性浪費的可視化、高速機械的控制等最尖端技術的同時,還將向顧客提議諸如減少生產設備的停機時間、降低質量損失、節約能源等各種削減TCO的方法。




進一步請參考鍾漢清《品質成本與管理‧壽命周期成本》


Total cost of ownership - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_cost_of_ownership
Total cost of ownership (TCO) is a financial estimate whose purpose is to help consumers and enterprise managers determine direct and indirect costs of a ...
 *****

品質眾生相 (128 ) : 稽查的陷阱多多......

QUOTATION OF THE DAY

"We've been auditing factories in Bangladesh for 20 years, and I wonder: 'Why aren't these things changing? Why aren't things getting better?'"
RACHELLE JACKSON, an official at Arche Advisors, a monitoring group based in California.

Business
Zaichun Ye, right, a consultant at Verité in China, seeing if a worker is wearing chain mail gloves at a textile factory in Yuhang in Zhejiang province.
Fast and Flawed Inspections of Factories Abroad

By STEPHANIE CLIFFORD and STEVEN GREENHOUSE

While some audits are performed in depth, retailers often choose "check the box" inspections that fail to uncover substandard conditions and outright fraud.
. Graphic  Graphic: Two Plans for Safety at Bangladesh Factories

2013年9月4日 星期三

The adidas method/ Apple-Like Dilemma: 90 年代的 Apple公司產品不是不可或缺的"高品質"........

In Nokia, Microsoft Bets on Apple-Like Revival

By NICK WINGFIELD

Microsoft's predicament recalls the situation Apple found itself in during the early 1990s, with high-quality products overlooked in the marketplace. 

90 年代的 Apple公司產品不是不可或缺的"高品質"........

愛迪達成功之道:看穿顧客在想什麼

http://www.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=5051794
2013-08-30 Web only 作者:經濟學人

愛迪達成功之道:看穿顧客在想什麼 圖片來源:陳德信 10年前,運動服飾製造商不停地為產品增加功能和未來主義設計,它們相信,消費者會依照技術規格來購買訓練鞋。但是,愛迪達 (adidas)現任運動服飾創意總監卡恩斯(James Carnes),在2004年奧斯陸會議中碰上了丹麥的顧問拉斯繆森(Mikkel Rasmussen);拉斯繆森挑戰了這個看法,他說,一支手機可能有72個功能,但那比大部分人想要、或是會用的功能多了50個。
那讓卡恩斯非常好奇,也讓他決定與拉斯繆森的小顧問公司ReD展開長達10年的合作。在那10年之中,愛迪達的銷售和股價皆穩定成 長。全球龍頭耐吉(Nike)的行銷是以運動明星代言為主;彪馬(Puma)的行銷佔營收比例更高,並跨足非運動休閒服飾領域,銷售亦有所成長,但仍遠遠 落後主要對手耐吉和愛迪達。愛迪達的行銷較為低調,預算佔營收比例也比前兩間公司低,雖有三分之一的銷售出自「生活類」產品,不過運動服飾仍舊是愛迪達的 核心業務。
愛迪達必須從基本面著手,才能在這個毛利微薄的領域中成功,例如,愛迪達得遵循競爭對手的做法,將生產外包以拉低成本。但在 ReD的協助之下,愛迪達製作出極佳的產品。ReD的手法相當特別,它會雇用學者仔細研究消費者的動機,例如,有位人類學博士生寄了數十台拋棄式相機給顧 客,請他們拍下促使自己運動的東西;而在30名回應的女性之中,25名拍的是黑色小禮服。愛迪達原先預設,多數客戶是為了強化某項運動表現才進行訓練;但 事實上,保持健康體態就是他們的「運動」。
ReD的研究者和拜仁慕尼黑的職業及業餘足球隊相處了數周,但他們問的並不是鞋釘該多長,而是想 知道足球員成功的決定性因素。他們發現,頂尖歐洲球隊會教導各項必要技巧,但速度是教不出來的,透過訓練也只能小幅提升。因此,愛迪達將跑鞋重新設計為極 輕量的足球鞋,推出之後立刻大受歡迎。
仔細研究顧客,也影響了愛迪達的原創設計。為英國隊設計倫敦奧運的制服之時,ReD發現,英國人雖然 愛國,但不是特別喜歡王室等傳統印象。因此,愛迪達和ReD請設計師麥卡尼(Stella McCartney)從「非傳統的英國」著手;最後,麥卡尼只在少數幾個地方用了紅色,更將國旗的元素放大,大到有些服裝上根本看不出來那是國旗。這樣的 設計初期遭受了一些批評,但在商業上卻大獲成功。
愛迪達為足球部門訂下了極具野心的目標,希望2014年的銷售能到達20億歐元,較2010年世界盃舉行時的15億歐元高出許多。愛迪達希望 2015年總銷售能到達170億歐元,並將營運毛利提升至11%(目前為8%)。愛迪達的手法有些古怪,但股票分析師似乎相信這些方法會繼續帶來利潤。
然 而,愛迪達於2006年收購銳跑(Reebok),則是少見的失誤;振興銳跑所需的時間遠遠超出預期。匯豐的分析師倫伯格(Erwan Rambourg)指出,愛迪達面臨的主要風險在於,儘管在美國和中國大舉支出以增加市佔,卻沒有獲得太多成果。不過,許多支持者相信,紀律和新穎的產品 研究手法,有助愛迪達躍過這類障礙。(黃維德譯)


Sportswear-makers
The adidas method
Aug 24th 2013 | HERZOGENAURACH |From the print edition
A German firm's unusual approach to designing its products.
TEN years ago sportswear-makers were cramming ever more features and futuristic designs into their products. They were convinced that the consumer bought, say, training shoes based on their technical specifications. But in 2004 James Carnes, today adidas's creative director for sportswear, and a Danish consultant named Mikkel Rasmussen met at a conference in Oslo at which Mr Rasmussen challenged this notion. A mobile phone, he said, may have 72 functions, but that is 50 more than most people wanted, or used.
Mr Carnes was intrigued, and so began an almost decade-long engagement for ReD, the small consultancy Mr Rasmussen co-founded in Copenhagen. In that decade adidas's sales and share price have grown steadily, alongside those of Nike, an American firm that is the global leader in sportswear. It remains far ahead of Puma, its crosstown rival. The two German firms, based in Herzogenaurach in Bavaria, were founded by brothers, Adi Dassler (hence adidas's name) and the older Rudolf (Puma), who fell out.
Nike's brash marketing is based on offering big cheques to star athletes to endorse its products. Puma spends an even greater share of its revenues on marketing, and has pushed into non-sporting casual clothes. Its sales have grown, but they remain far behind its main rivals'. Adidas takes a quieter approach, spending less of its revenues on marketing than the other two. Although about a third of adidas's sales are also "lifestyle" goods, sportswear remains at the firm's core.
To succeed in a business with tight margins, adidas has had to get the nuts and bolts right. Like its rivals it has outsourced production to cut costs, for example. But with ReD's help it has also made handsome stuff that American rappers mention in their lyrics, and it now has prominent designers offering to co-operate on projects. Mr Carnes gives generous credit to the geeks at ReD, saying that they have had "a general effect on everything".
ReD has some curious methods. It hires ex-academics, largely anthropologists and ethnologists, to study customers' motivations intimately. ReD trained a group of adidas design staff in basic techniques, and sent each of them to spend 24 hours with a customer: to have breakfast, run and do yoga with them, and find out what made them exercise. In a related project, an anthropology doctoral student working for ReD mailed dozens of customers a disposable camera, asking them to photograph something that made them work out. Of 30 women who responded, 25 sent a picture of a little black dress, says Mr Carnes. The company had assumed that most customers were training to be good at specific sports; in fact for many, fitness itself was their "sport".
Spending weeks with both the professional and amateur divisions of Bayern Munich football club, ReD's researchers asked not how long the studs on their boots should be, but what would determine the success of a footballer in ten years' time. They learned that top European clubs had all become proficient at teaching the necessary skills. The thing that could not be taught, and could only to a small extent be trained, was speed. So adidas adapted one of its track shoes into an exceptionally light football boot. When released in 2010 it became an instant hit—and it scored far and away the most goals in that year's World Cup.
Intimate study of customers has influenced aesthetic design too. Adidas got the job of creating the host country's uniforms for last year's London Olympics. ReD found that for all their patriotism, Brits did not get terribly moved by traditional images like the monarchy and double-decker buses. So adidas and ReD told Stella McCartney, their chosen designer (pictured, centre), to think "untraditionally British". She made a splash by putting the Union Jack's red only on shoes, socks and trim, while making elements of the flag so big that on some shirts they were unrecognisable. Despite some initial criticism it was a commercial hit.
Similar research into national identity is going into next year's football World Cup uniforms. When Russians were interviewed about what made them proud, "nothing past 1970 ever came up," says Mr Carnes. Instead they mentioned Dostoevsky, the second world war and winning the race into space. So Russia's uniforms will feature a curve representing Yuri Gagarin's view from orbit.
Adidas has set an ambitious €2 billion ($2.7 billion) sales target for its football division alone in 2014, up from €1.5 billion in 2010, the last World Cup year. Overall, the company wants €17 billion in sales by 2015, at the same time increasing operating-profit margins to 11% (from 8% now). Zany as some of its methods sound, equity analysts seem convinced that they will continue to pay off. In a recent poll of 34 analysts by Reuters news agency, none recommended selling the shares, and 25 labelled them as "buy" or "outperform".
Adidas's 2006 takeover of Reebok, another sportswear firm, was a rare misstep. It has taken far longer than expected to turn around. The main risk adidas faces, says Erwan Rambourg, an analyst at HSBC, is that its heavy spending to gain market share in America and China does not pay off. A strengthening euro is another. But adidas's many admirers believe that the company's disciplined habits, and its novel approach to product research, should help it leap over any such hurdles.
©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2013


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